Irsay Leaving 4th-Pick up to Ballard and Steichen!

[jvan1973]

18 hours ago, csmopar said:

And odds are, he’ll be the first fired come December 

I'll take those odds

[jvan1973]

19 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

Most QBs period don't make it.  So not a surprise that by extension that also applies to top ten signal callers.

Qbs are over drafted almost every year.   I would bet the QB bust rate is higher than any other position drafted in the top 10

[csmopar]

9 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Qbs are over drafted almost every year.   I would bet the QB bust rate is higher than any other position drafted in the top 10

It is, it was posted the other day, only 16 percent of first round QBs are still with the team that drafts them by the end of year 3.

[Fluke_33]

19 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Have you seen the video of Ballard saying we’re going to get the best player in the draft?   Did you not see him LAUGH?   He wasn’t serious.   

I haven’t seen the full video. I saw a short clip and I thought he was serious.  Can you point me in the direction to find the video?   I googled it but all I’m seeing are videos from 2021 

[NewColtsFan]

45 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I haven’t seen the full video. I saw a short clip and I thought he was serious.  Can you point me in the direction to find the video?   I googled it but all I’m seeing are videos from 2021 

Maybe we saw the same clip and reacted different.    But while I can’t link, I’ve found it on YouTube. 
 

Just write this in to the search bar:

 

 2023, Chris Ballard talks NFL draft.  
 

It comes up as a clip just over 1:00 long as Chris Ballard talks about how he feels with the 4th overall pick.   He was serious for most of it, but laughs later.   I think he was paying some lip service to the question.  

[Fluke_33]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Maybe we saw the same clip and reacted different.    But while I can’t link, I’ve found it on YouTube. 
 

Just write this in to the search bar:

 

 2023, Chris Ballard talks NFL draft.  
 

It comes up as a clip just over 1:00 long as Chris Ballard talks about how he feels with the 4th overall pick.   He was serious for most of it, but laughs later.   I think he was paying some lip service to the question.  

Thank you.  I found the full interview.  It is right at the end.  He’s definitely serious about it.  He does laugh after but to me it’s not about that the best player will be at 4.  
 

check it out.  I’m really interested to see if you agree.  Now, I do understand that he may need to believe that but I do think he does at this point, reading body language etc. 

 

https://www.colts.com/video/chris-ballard-2023-nfl-scouting-combine-interview-with-local-media

 

its at the 7:40 mark - about 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Thank you.  I found the full interview.  It is right at the end.  He’s definitely serious about it.  He does laugh after but to me it’s not about that the best player will be at 4.  
 

check it out.  I’m really interested to see if you agree.  Now, I do understand that he may need to believe that but I do think he does at this point, reading body language etc. 

 

https://www.colts.com/video/chris-ballard-2023-nfl-scouting-combine-interview-with-local-media

 

its at the 7:40 mark - about 

 

 

I feel a little different…..   Yes, he was serious when he initially said it, but a reporter asked a follow up….  “Why?”  And that’s when he says….  “Because we’re at 4!”.   And then he laughs.  To me, I think he knows just how silly that sounds.  
 

The original question was about reassuring fans that the team would come away with a very good quarterback.   And Ballard launches into his annual defense of being willing to make big moves.  He points to his Buckner trade.   Then HE adds, “I think we’ll come away with the best player in the draft!”   Then there’s the follow up of “why?” And CB pops….  Because we’re at 4!”     Which is an entirely different answer to a different question.  I think CB knows the answer sounds funny saying it out loud when he did.   Moments after stating he’d trade up for a quarterback he’s now saying the Colts will come away with the best player.  And those two answers are at cross purposes.   One is a badly needed QB.   The other is BPA.   That’s not the same and Ballard knows it.   I think that nervous laughter is the tell that he talked himself into a circle.

 

People can be imprecise talking off the top of their head.   I think Ballard talked himself into a corner.   And he caught himself.   And then the laughter.  I see the Op’s position that I responded to.   I’m just not worried about it — Yet.

[Fluke_33]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I feel a little different…..   Yes, he was serious when he initially said it, but a reporter asked a follow up….  “Why?”  And that’s when he says….  “Because we’re at 4!”.   And then he laughs.  To me, I think he knows just how silly that sounds.  
 

The original question was about reassuring fans that the team would come away with a very good quarterback.   And Ballard launches into his annual defense of being willing to make big moves.  He points to his Buckner trade.   Then HE adds, “I think we’ll come away with the best player in the draft!”   Then there’s the follow up of “why?” And CB pops….  Because we’re at 4!”     Which is an entirely different answer to a different question.  I think CB knows the answer sounds funny saying it out loud when he did.   Moments after stating he’d trade up for a quarterback he’s now saying the Colts will come away with the best player.  And those two answers are at cross purposes.   One is a badly needed QB.   The other is BPA.   That’s not the same and Ballard knows it.   I think that nervous laughter is the tell that he talked himself into a circle.

 

People can be imprecise talking off the top of their head.   I think Ballard talked himself into a corner.   And he caught himself.   And then the laughter.  I see the Op’s position that I responded to.   I’m just not worried about it — Yet.

I get your point and it’s a fair opinion.  I think the follow up question was why wouldn’t the best player go at 1 and he says because we’re at 4 and he laughed at the logical fallacy of that but I really thinks he will get the best player at 4 which is why I believe it won’t be a qb.  

[crazycolt1]

3 hours ago, jbaron04 said:

I’m not saying that’s your point of view because I do think you are right that we are making a big deal out of it. But to be fair the age means a lot because he is 4-5 years older than some of these other QBs and he is still gonna take 2-3 years of development. He reminds me of Brandon weedon when he was killing college but he is a grown grown man playing with young men/kids 18-21 etc… imagine if you was in your prime going against people that’s 4-6 years younger than you you would dominate them. But again if he drops to the 3rd and we haven’t picked a QB I would take him. 

I'm not saying you are wrong but a couple of things to keep in mind.  As hard as it is to find franchise QBs, GMs have no choice but to keep him in their minds.  Had he not suffered that injury he would be rated a lot higher. As hit and miss the QB position is, he could be a hit. 

[ProblChld32]

6 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

The thing with Hooker is imo, I think the fans make a bigger issue out of his age than some GMs. The dude has maybe more talent than the some of the top rated QBs?

He was touted in conversations of being a first overall pick before his injury, so the talent is most certainly there. I think his age will deter some organizations, but if you look at like this if the you get 8-10 solid years out of him or more I think that is a win. I’d most certainly get on board with Minshew starting the season off and have Hooker come in and play once he is completely healthy and up to speed towards the later part of the season. I mean this season is essentially a throw away season right? I don’t expect to win more than 6-7 games if that. Get him acclimated to the offense and the rigors of the NFL , retool the roster and let’s compete next season.

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I get your point and it’s a fair opinion.  I think the follow up question was why wouldn’t the best player go at 1 and he says because we’re at 4 and he laughed at the logical fallacy of that but I really thinks he will get the best player at 4 which is why I believe it won’t be a qb.  

I’ve written about this….
 

I think if the Colts pick someone like Anderson or Wilson at 4, then they are almost compelled to go after Hooker and not just hope he falls to pick 35.   I think CB would be forced to trade back up into the first.   And that might be expensive, especially if there’s truth to Minnesota being seriously interested in Hooker at pick 23.  That’s a long way up.  We’re not just talking about pick 30.   But if Steichen likes Hooker, then I think Ballard MUST get him.  Because if he fails then that top defender is going to be under far more intense pressure than any first round pick Ballard’s ever been involved with.  I think the falloff to any other QB after Hooker is STEEP.   So it’d be Hooker or wait another year.   And even if the Colts were lucky enough to get a QB next year, it’d be another a year or two after that while the rookie figures things out in the NFL.   I think CB would run out of time.  

[jbaron04]

43 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

I'm not saying you are wrong but a couple of things to keep in mind.  As hard as it is to find franchise QBs, GMs have no choice but to keep him in their minds.  Had he not suffered that injury he would be rated a lot higher. As hit and miss the QB position is, he could be a hit. 

Yea but the chances is a lot low with him due to age, injury , scheme etc… but again if we miss out on stroud , young, Richardson , in that order I would mind taking a flyer on him TBH Levis is just as old tbh he is turning 24 in June 

[hoosierhawk]

On 3/31/2023 at 12:42 PM, Smonroe said:

That’s funny.  I don’t think Wentz alone got Frank fired.  
 

The complete regression of the Oline (which includes the decision to go with Pryor and Pinter), and Ryan’s arm and fumbling played more into it.  

Plus atrocious play calling and lack of prepping the team to be ready to play with passion. 

[hoosierhawk]

On 3/31/2023 at 2:58 PM, philba101 said:

I agree that this should be a given right? Maybe all three (Irsay, Ballard, and Steichen) already made their decision privately and are on the same page with who our next QB will be. Maybe their public words are just smokescreens so that they can get the player they always wanted. What is troubling is that we are seeing some of the same language from Ballard about rookie QB's that we have seen the last three seasons. It just seems odd to me that his owner is publicly out making the case for a rookie QB, while the GM is sticking to his same old mantra about not taking a rookie QB unless he is convinced he can pick the right one. If Irsay is just going to leave it up to Ballard and Steichen as he implied yesterday, we can't  be sure Ballard won't revert to his old norms. I would love to know what Steichen is pushing for at this point. There is a lot at stake this off season. The fact that Ballard and Irsay are saying opposite things publicly makes me wonder if they truly are on the same page going forward.

How many ways and how many times can you express your distain for Ballard? It does get old.

[hoosierhawk]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I’ve written about this….
 

I think if the Colts pick someone like Anderson or Wilson at 4, then they are almost compelled to go after Hooker and not just hope he falls to pick 35.   I think CB would be forced to trade back up into the first.   And that might be expensive, especially if there’s truth to Minnesota being seriously interested in Hooker at pick 23.  That’s a long way up.  We’re not just talking about pick 30.   But if Steichen likes Hooker, then I think Ballard MUST get him.  Because if he fails then that top defender is going to be under far more intense pressure than any first round pick Ballard’s ever been involved with.  I think the falloff to any other QB after Hooker is STEEP.   So it’d be Hooker or wait another year.   And even if the Colts were lucky enough to get a QB next year, it’d be another a year or two after that while the rookie figures things out in the NFL.   I think CB would run out of time.  

I could see us trade back to the teens and pick up hopefully another 2nd rd pick and take Hooker with our pick in the first. That would give us 2 second rounders plus a potentially franchise QB.

[Nickster]

On 3/31/2023 at 8:21 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Because I’m not the least bit triggered.  I’m just fine.   But thanks for your deep concern.   

[Moosejawcolt]

On 4/1/2023 at 8:59 AM, NewColtsFan said:

I’ve written about this….
 

I think if the Colts pick someone like Anderson or Wilson at 4, then they are almost compelled to go after Hooker and not just hope he falls to pick 35.   I think CB would be forced to trade back up into the first.   And that might be expensive, especially if there’s truth to Minnesota being seriously interested in Hooker at pick 23.  That’s a long way up.  We’re not just talking about pick 30.   But if Steichen likes Hooker, then I think Ballard MUST get him.  Because if he fails then that top defender is going to be under far more intense pressure than any first round pick Ballard’s ever been involved with.  I think the falloff to any other QB after Hooker is STEEP.   So it’d be Hooker or wait another year.   And even if the Colts were lucky enough to get a QB next year, it’d be another a year or two after that while the rookie figures things out in the NFL.   I think CB would run out of time.  

If they did for example love Hooker, I could see them trade out of 4 trying to get more picks in the  event that they want to move up  back into the 1st round.

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

If they did for example love Hooker, I could see them trade out of 4 trying to get more picks in the  event that they want to move up  back into the 1st round.

Entirely possible.   But if you’re not taking a QB at the top if the draft, then I think they have to get a top level defensive player.   And the two top appear to be DE’s, Anderson and Wilson.   Trade down too far and they risk not getting an impact level rookie player and I think that would be a disastrous move for the team.   The Colts don’t want to be drafting a player where Ballard says “give the kid a year or two to figure it out.”   They need to take an immediate impact player that can have Ballard saying “this is why we passed on Richardson and Levis.” 
 

[esmort]

Ballard taking AR15 (or Levi's) at pick 4 and them failing will be far more forgiveable to the fans, Irsay, and the media than trading back and taking a QB and that QB fails.  

 

The first option will be viewed as Ballard took best QB who was available, the Colts needed a QB, and the general consensus was that was who he should take (yes there will be a few detractors, but the vast majority believe the right move is to take the QB at # 4). So if it fails then most everyone else would have also failed...Ballard gets a pass.

 

The second option/trading back is Ballard looking like he's trying to be the smartest guy in the room. If it works great, he looks like a genius and everyone will sing his praises.  If that QB fails and the QB he passed on is even average he will get roasted... and if AR15 turns into a suped of version of Lamar or he or Levi's turn out to even just a very good QB Ballard's career would likely be over.  

 

The only way option 2 works if the QB fails is if the trade back involves accumulating ammunition (a 24 1st +) for moving up for QB next year.  So this year's QB pick is basically a hedged bet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tsarquise]

On 3/31/2023 at 6:00 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

Mahonnes and Hurts were not considered Manning or Luck coming out. It's about getting that guy and building around him. In years past, teams refused to do that.  I have a lot of faith in Steichen. I think he looks at these 4 qbs and thinks he can mold one of them and make him his franchise guy.  I do think he has a favorit,  and that guy is going to be the one that works the hardest. I think he is going to do his homework on which guy is going to be here till the sun  goes down after all the other guys have left.I have a feeling It's Levi. I don't think a lot of teams would trade up for him, and maybe that is why Ballard is confident they will get him at 4. Some teams may jump up to three to get Richardson.  

Yeah, besides Burrow, I don't think any of the current top QBs were billed as the next big thing coming out of the draft. 

[GoColts8818]

4 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Yeah, besides Burrow, I don't think any of the current top QBs were billed as the next big thing coming out of the draft. 

Depending on how you feel about Lawrence he was.  He took a major step forward this year to joining the club but I could understand the argument of he’s not there yet.

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Yeah, besides Burrow, I don't think any of the current top QBs were billed as the next big thing coming out of the draft. 

Lawrence definitely was hailed as the next Big Thing.   He had three great years in college, Burrow, just one.   
 

Lawrence was called the best college quarterback since Luck.   In fact, after Lawrence’s freshman year there were stories complaining that he couldn’t go straight to the NFL because he appeared ready.   That the NFL rules were forcing him to stay in school two more years when, to those writers and reporters,  the kid didn’t need to.   Turns out those in the media were very, very wrong. 
 

As Colts fans, we have to hope Lawrence never lives up to his full potential.

[RollerColt]

9 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Yeah, besides Burrow, I don't think any of the current top QBs were billed as the next big thing coming out of the draft. 

Even Burrow wasn’t until later in his senior year. And after that there were plenty of questions about if it was him at LSU or his star studded surrounding cast that made him so successful, and if he would be able to thrive in the NFL. 

[krunk]

NFL draft: Several ‘influential voices’ for Panthers favor Bryce Young (usatoday.com)

Panthers GM Scott Fitterer: Bryce Young has NFL-level preparation (usatoday.com)

 

Articles on Panthers Wire

[Tsarquise]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Lawrence definitely was hailed as the next Big Thing.   He had three great years in college, Burrow, just one.   
 

Lawrence was called the best college quarterback since Luck.   In fact, after Lawrence’s freshman year there were stories complaining that he couldn’t go straight to the NFL because he appeared ready.   That the NFL rules were forcing him to stay in school two more years when, to those writers and reporters,  the kid didn’t need to.   Turns out those in the media were very, very wrong. 
 

As Colts fans, we have to hope Lawrence never lives up to his full potential.

Yeah, he was, but I wouldn't consider him a top QB quite yet. 

7 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Depending on how you feel about Lawrence he was.  He took a major step forward this year to joining the club but I could understand the argument of he’s not there yet.

Yeah, I don't consider him a top QB yet. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Depending on how you feel about Lawrence he was.  He took a major step forward this year to joining the club but I could understand the argument of he’s not there yet.

I don t consider Lawrence a top QB yet . I think the poster is talking more about mahomes and Allen.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Yeah, he was, but I wouldn't consider him a top QB quite yet. 

Yeah, I don't consider him a top QB yet. 

You are correct.   Lawrence is not a top QB just yet.    Thanks in part to Urban Meyer.   But he began to out it together last year with Doug Peterson.   So his promise is beginning to show.   His future looks bright.   

[Tsarquise]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

You are correct.   Lawrence is not a top QB just yet.    Thanks in part to Urban Meyer.   But he began to out it together last year with Doug Peterson.   So his promise is beginning to show.   His future looks bright.   

Absolutely looks bright. 

[ChuggaBeer]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

You are correct.   Lawrence is not a top QB just yet.    Thanks in part to Urban Meyer.   But he began to out it together last year with Doug Peterson.   So his promise is beginning to show.   His future looks bright.   

So which QB in this draft for either the Colts or the Texans gives any cause for alarm to Jax and Lawrence that they wont win the division over the next 5 years?    

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, ChuggaBeer said:

So which QB in this draft for either the Colts or the Texans gives any cause for alarm to Jax and Lawrence that they wont win the division over the next 5 years?    

Honestly?   I don’t think any QB in this class is going to scare Jacksonville.  
 

Doesn’t mean another team can’t win the AFC South.    The rest of the AFC South has to build a better team a better coaching staff than the Jaguars.   As Ballard says “there are many ways to win.”  So the rest of the division has to find other ways to beat J’Ville even though they have the better quarterback.  

 

I think next years QB class featuring Williams and Maye has players who are highly likely on par with Lawrence.   But that’s a year away.  

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, ChuggaBeer said:

So which QB in this draft for either the Colts or the Texans gives any cause for alarm to Jax and Lawrence that they wont win the division over the next 5 years?    

Probably no one unfortunately.  I think all we will have is hope.  But if Irsay and Ballard really want to put the fear of God into them they should find a way to get Lamar.  I think that would definitely raise the alarm button.  JMO of course.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Probably no one unfortunately.  I think all we will have is hope.  But if Irsay and Ballard really want to put the fear of God into them they should find a way to get Lamar.  I think that would definitely raise the alarm button.  JMO of course.

We won’t know for a year or two. Have yo let this play out.

[Dr. T]

I see the draft playing out one of five ways:

1) Young is not picked by Carolina or Houston for whatever reason and we try to scramble up to #3 to get him (although some other team may offer more).

2) Stroud and Young are gone, the Cards trade with someone else to take Richardson and we pick Anderson over Levis at #4.

3) Stroud and Young are gone, the Cards stay put and pick a defensive player, and we pick Richardson.

4) None of the QBs we like are available at #4, so we trade back in order to get another first round pick next year. We may pick Hooker later, if he is available, or we bulk up the team to get ready for our QB of the future next year, riding with Minshew and Sam in 2023.

5) (least likely IMO) Young, Stroud and Richardson are gone and we pick Levis.

 

[Boondoggle]

We're down the stretch finally with the draft so I expect we'll start hearing that Levis is a "riser" which is their way of balancing their boards when they have a player wrong.  Rumors will get out on who likes who and I figure he'll be off the board when we're up.

 

This is a weird year though.  To have a QB as small as Young looked at the way they look at him just baffles me.  So is it smokescreen.  I realize the guy is there mentally, and he played in a pro system in many ways for Bama.  But for that top slot the size is gonna hurt him.

 

I'm thinking when 3 is up the top two QBs will be Young and Richardson.  And at that point the Colts need to make a decision because if they take Richardson that is an enormous dice roll.  Kind of dice roll that might submarine the chances of this young head coach.  So do they move up one spot.  Or do they flip the script, take the best defender on the board, and be ready to move up if necessary later in the draft to get the guy they want.

 

I honestly am not sure which way is best.  Young's intelligence does intrigue me but the size is something that I feel really matters at this level.