Stitches' 2023 Colts Mock Off-season (ver. 2.0 - What would Ballard Do? edition)

[stitches]

Well the combine is over and the legal tampering period starts beginning of next week so time is running out on me trying to do my final mock off-season for 2023. As usual, it will be the mock where I try to stick to what I think Ballard would actually do rather than what I would do. 

 

I'm using Overthecap's Colts page for salary numbers. I'm using Overthecap's Colts free agency page for our own free agents.

 

I will be using spotrac's free agency tracker to find other teams' free agents and if there is market value figure listed, I will try to be close to it, unless I deem it unreasonable for one reason or another. 

 

For the draft I will be using The PFF's Mock Draft simulator. I will run it with their default settings, but I will try to take players based on how I feel about the players without trying to cheat the system(for example if a player I have rated as a top 20 is there on the board at 34 and is BPA, but is ranked 77 on their board I will NOT pass on him because I know I can draft him in later rounds, I would consider this cheating the system because I have information that in the real world GMs don't really have). 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $11.90M

 

Trades:

- Kenny Moore + Ryan Kelly + #35 pick in 2023 draft + 2024 2nd round pick for #1 pick in the 2023 draft. (saves 18.3M) - I think both would have value to a team that's trying to get better and Eberflus has experience with Kenny Moore in particular. Kenny was best under Eberflus and here we are trying to soften the blow of draft compensation going to Chicago by sending them 2 of our 7 ... Pro-Bowlers... 

 

Cuts:

- Matt Ryan - Unfortunately it didn't work out with him. We save about 17.21M by cutting him and he has no incentive to retire before that. 

- Mo Alie-Cox - I'm not 100% certain this is the right move. We save about 2.92M by cutting him, it might be hard to get better player at the position for that money, but this IMO is needed more in order to vacate some playing time for the young guys and to try to add a more dynamic weapon. It's more of a roster-spot consideration than money consideration. 

- Nick Foles - Saving 2.1M

- 

 

Salary cap space after trades and cuts: $52.43

 

Own Free Agents:

 

Unrestricted FAs

Yannick Ngakoue - Ballard has been reluctant to commit to re-signing him and has been somewhat economical with his praise toward Ngakoue this off-season... It feels like he's preparing to let him go. 

Matt Pryor - nope... 

Brandon Facyson - wonder how much money he will get. He might actually re-sign here, but I can see him going elsewhere for more money

Tyquan Lewis - Unfortunately, too many injuries... 

Ashton Dulin - 1 year, 2.5M ... special teams player with some WR depth value sprinkled in... 

Rodney McLeod - 1 year, 4M... he did well with us. I won't mind bringing him back, I think Ballard wouldn't mind it either. 

Ben Banogu - nope... 

Dennis Kelly - nope 

Parris Campbell - I personally wouldn't give him this contract. BUT, from some twitter posts by PC and some reporting it seems like both Campbell and the Colts have some interest in giving it another try. (3/22M, 7M first year, 14M guaranteed), 

Armani Watts 

Matt Haack  - here I hope Rigoberto is back, but if not... I feel like there are enough players capable of replicating Haack's production on the open market 

Tony Brown 

Chase McLaughin - 4/14M, (3.5M guaranteed first year, 8M total guaranteed)

Bobby Okereke - There are some reports that he might get about 12-14M a year. Unfortunately we won't be able to retain him if this is his market. 

Byron Cowart - 

EJ Speed - 1 year 2M... 

 

Restricted FAs

Khalid Kareem - 

 

Exclusive Rights FAs

Carter O'Donnell - let him go

D'vonte Price - keep him for now for competition... 0.7M

---Total Spent on Own FAs: $19.7M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $32.73M

 

 

Other Teams' FAs:

- Billy Price. OC/OG, ... 1 year 2.5M Price has had somewhat of a hard start to his career, here we are giving him a chance as a rotational interior lineman and competition for the OC spot. 

- David Edwards IOL, young guard with some starting experience - we sign him as competition/possible starter at RG, he had some solid years before this one but lost his starting spot this year after suffering a concussion  in week 5 - 1 year 3M

- Samson Ebukam, EDGE - 3/25M(8M guaranteed year 1,  16M guaranteed) - Ebukam has been a productive rotational rusher for winning teams ever since he got into the league. He will fill in part of the void left from Ngakoue as a wide-9 rusher. 

- Keisean Nixon, CB -  potential slot corner replacement for Kenny Moore. Good tackler and a special teams player(All pro as a kick returner) - 3 years/15M(5M 1st year, 8M guaranteed)

- Marcus Mariota, QB - 1 year 6M , backup QB... there were rumors last year Ballard might have wanted Mariota as a potential bridge/backup, well we get him for exactly that role now. 

- Trey Pipkins, OT - 1 year - 2M... depth at OT. Hasn't been great so far in his career but still young and has some experience playing. 

 

---Total Spent on Other teams' FAs: $26.5M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $6.23

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Draft

 

Round 1, pick #1(via Chicago) CJ Stroud, QB Ohio State. - I think this is where ultimately we will end up on. Ballard has a long and expansive history with drafting players from the big 10 and especially from Ohio State. Stroud had a stellar combine performance in the throwing session and this is one thing that both Ballard and Steichen agreed on - accuracy is one of the most important attributes for a QB and as Stroud says it himself he takes pride in his ball placement and accuracy. So... welcome to the Colts,  CJ STROUD! 

 

Round 3, pick 79 (via Washington) - Joe Tippman, OC, Wisconsin - big and athletic interior lineman, 2 year starter at Wisconsin. He's great on the move and he has some power too. Might need some hand technique improvement. Stroud gets his center from the very start of his career. They can grow and develop together in the league. 

 

(trade: Colts #106 in R4 for Panthers' #114 and #146: typical Ballard type of deal, trying to recoup a pick after trading the second in the Stroud deal)

 

Round 4, pick 114 (via Carolina) - Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan - a versatile TE who can catch the ball, but also can hold his own inline. He tested really athletic at the combine and we all know how much Ballard loves his RAS-monsters. (9.75) Also... lets see if I can draft all Big10 players  

 

Round 5, pick 138 - Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane - Athletic and long(almost 34" arms), team captain, 3 year starter. Sideline to sideline athlete. A bit small for most teams, but we have had very good success with undersized athletes at LB. Fills the statsheet - tackles,TFL, sacks, INTs, FF... he does it all ... similar to other LBs Ballard has drafted before. 

 

Round 5, pick 146 (via Carolina) - Yaya Diaby, EDGE, Louisville - he's the prototypical Ballard EDGE-setting DE - 6'3" 263, 34" arms, explosive and athletic off the ball, lacks refinement in pass-rush moves. Good developmental project to replace the previous one in Banogu. 

 

Round 5, pick 162 (via Buffalo) - Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland - a versatile corner with length(almost 32" arms). Can be outside corner in zone schemes, but initially I expect him to be depth/competition for the slot corner spot 

 

Round 7, pick 221 - Jon Gaines II, OG, UCLA - depth/developmental prospect

 

Round 7, pick 236(via TB) Gervarrius Owens, S, Houston - depth/developmental prospect 

 

Disclaimer: Previously I've counted the money for the rookies signing toward the cap but in reality those 8-9 players that will get contracts will replace other players with similar value futures contract that are accounted for in the top 53 number to begin with. We have over 20 players with salary number of around or under 1M and the dead money on huge majority of them is minuscule, so when we cut down the roster to 53, depending on who we cut, the real remaining cap space would be around 15-20M most likely, which will give us plenty of room to sign the rookies and give us room to operate during the season. 

 

Depth chart:

 

Offense:
QB: CJ Stroud, Marcus Mariota, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, D'vonte Price, Jake Funk, Aaron Shampklin
WR1: Michael Pittman, Mike Strachan, Jr., Vyncint Smith, 
WR2: Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin, Malik Turner, Kristian Wilkerson
Slot: Parris Campbell, Ethan Fernea
TE1: Jelani Woods, Andrew Ogletree, Nikola Kalinic
TE2: Kylen Granson, Luke Schoonmaker, Jalen Wydermyer, Rashod Berry
LT: Bernhard Raimann, Trey Pipkins

LG: Quenton Nelson, Jon Gaines II, Wesley French, Arlington Hambright
OC: Joe Tippman, Billy Price, Danny Pinter
RG: David Edwards, Will Fries, Dakoda Shepley
RT: Braden Smith, Jordan Murray

Deffense:
LDE: Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo 
DT: Grover Stewart, Chris Williams, McTelvin Agim, Eric Johnson
3T:  DeForest Buckner, Kameron Cline
RDE: Samson Ebukam, Yaya Diaby
WILL: Shaquille Leonard, Dorian Williams, 
MIKE:  Zaire Franklin, JoJo Domann, Forrest Rhyne
SAM: EJ Speed, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Segun Olubi
SS: Rodney McLeod, Nick Cross, Gervarrius Owens, Marcel Dabo, Henry Black
FS: Rodney Thomas, Julian Blackmon
RCB: Isaiah Rodgers, Jakorian Bennett, Trevor Denbow
LCB: Stephon Gilmore, Dallis Flowers, Kevin Toliver II, Darrell Baker Jr.
Slot: Keisean Nixon,  David Vereen

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Chase McLaughin, Lucas Havrisik

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in blue are new FAs/trade acquisitions

***bolded names I project as top 51

 

Final thoughts:

- OT seems very thin to me, the inside of the line has been stabilized IMO. I like the idea of giving the new QB a talented center from the get go to grow with. Lets hope Raimann takes a step forward

- decided against getting another WR. Stroud will have to do with what we have for this year. The WR class in FA is not great and the players who were left in later rounds in the draft didn't catch my attention. Just felt like I couldn't do everything I wanted to do after I traded the 2nd round pick this year. At least I tried to save the 1st rounder next year. Hopefully we can use it on a weapon for Stroud next year... *cough*Marvin*cough*Harrison*cough*cough

- I was split on the bridge QB to bring in... maybe Minshew is another option, not sure who the people here would prefer. I don't mind any of them really. Hopefully they never see the field. 

- I like the defense, I think it can be good. At least as good as last year, especially if Leonard is back to form

 

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. Cheers everybody  

 

(Disclaimer: I used the blueprint from my my prevous years' mocks so it's possible there are some mistakes/leftovers from it that I didn't catch. Please don't hesitate to point out any glaring errors or things you think are overly unrealistic.)

[Defjamz26]

How much is the Panthers trade going to change the draft for you?

 

My biggest issue here is the Campbell contract. That’s too much money for a 2 year wonder WR3. What would you do next year when Pittman was a FA? 

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

How much is the Panthers trade going to change the draft for you?

 

My biggest issue here is the Campbell contract. That’s too much money for a 2 year wonder WR3. What would you do next year when Pittman was a FA? 

It totally destroys the whole mock lol.

 

I spent like 3 hours on this thing and 1 hour after I posted it, Panthers burned my mock to the ground...

[funktacious2]

Outdated or not, it was a solid mock!

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

It totally destroys the whole mock lol.

 

I spent like 3 hours on this thing and 1 hour after I posted it, Panthers burned my mock to the ground...

I would say maybe your first mock with some tweaks is the way to go. At this point it looks like we keep pick 35 which changes a lot of things.

[stitches]

I will try to do a quick redo of this mock, with a slight change of the trade we made and other additions... 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $11.90M

 

Trades:

- #4 in the 2023 draft + Kenny Moore + #106 to the Arizona Cardinals for the #3 in the 2023 draft. Kenny was one of the players that most suffered from the change of defensive coordinator. He has spoken glowingly in the past on his ex-DBs coach and current Arizona Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon.   Savings: 8.17M

 

- Ryan Kelly to Washington Football Team for a 4th round pick (no. 118) - The two teams already made a trade last year so I would guess they have good relationship. Washington needs a center and Kelly might need a change of scenery( Savings: 10.13M post-June designation). 

 

Cuts:

- Matt Ryan - Unfortunately it didn't work out with him. We save about 17.21M by cutting him and he has no incentive to retire before that. 

- Mo Alie-Cox - I'm not 100% certain this is the right move. We save about 2.92M by cutting him, it might be hard to get better player at the position for that money, but this IMO is needed more in order to vacate some playing time for the young guys and to try to add a more dynamic weapon. It's more of a roster-spot consideration than money consideration. 

- Nick Foles - Saving 2.1M

 

 

Salary cap space after trades and cuts: $52.43

 

Own Free Agents:

 

Unrestricted FAs

Yannick Ngakoue - Ballard has been reluctant to commit to re-signing him and has been somewhat economical with his praise toward Ngakoue this off-season... It feels like he's preparing to let him go. 

Matt Pryor - nope... 

Brandon Facyson - wonder how much money he will get. He might actually re-sign here, but I can see him going elsewhere for more money

Tyquan Lewis - Unfortunately, too many injuries... 

Ashton Dulin - 1 year, 2.5M ... special teams player with some WR depth value sprinkled in... 

Rodney McLeod - 1 year, 4M... he did well with us. I won't mind bringing him back, I think Ballard wouldn't mind it either. 

Ben Banogu - nope... 

Dennis Kelly - nope 

Parris Campbell - I personally wouldn't give him this contract. BUT, from some twitter posts by PC and some reporting it seems like both Campbell and the Colts have some interest in giving it another try. (3/22M, 7M first year, 14M guaranteed), 

Armani Watts 

Matt Haack  - here I hope Rigoberto is back, but if not... I feel like there are enough players capable of replicating Haack's production on the open market 

Tony Brown 

Chase McLaughin - 4/14M, (3.5M guaranteed first year, 8M total guaranteed)

Bobby Okereke - There are some reports that he might get about 12-14M a year. Unfortunately we won't be able to retain him if this is his market. 

Byron Cowart - 

EJ Speed - 1 year 2M... 

 

Restricted FAs

Khalid Kareem - 

 

Exclusive Rights FAs

Carter O'Donnell - let him go

D'vonte Price - keep him for now for competition... 0.7M

---Total Spent on Own FAs: $19.7M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $32.73M

 

 

Other Teams' FAs:

- Billy Price. OC/OG, ... 1 year 2.5M Price has had somewhat of a hard start to his career, here we are giving him a chance as a rotational interior lineman and competition for the OC spot. 

- David Edwards IOL, young guard with some starting experience - we sign him as competition/possible starter at RG, he had some solid years before this one but lost his starting spot this year after suffering a concussion  in week 5 - 1 year 3M

- Samson Ebukam, EDGE - 3/25M(8M guaranteed year 1,  16M guaranteed) - Ebukam has been a productive rotational rusher for winning teams ever since he got into the league. He will fill in part of the void left from Ngakoue as a wide-9 rusher. 

- Keisean Nixon, CB -  potential slot corner replacement for Kenny Moore. Good tackler and a special teams player(All pro as a kick returner) - 3 years/15M(5M 1st year, 8M guaranteed)

- Marcus Mariota, QB - 1 year 6M , backup QB... there were rumors last year Ballard might have wanted Mariota as a potential bridge/backup, well we get him for exactly that role now. This one makes even more sense in this mock having in mind the pick at QB I made. 

- Trey Pipkins, OT - 1 year - 2M... depth at OT. Hasn't been great so far in his career but still young and has some experience playing. 

 

---Total Spent on Other teams' FAs: $26.5M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $6.23

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Draft

 

Round 1, pick #3 Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida - After the Panthers jumped us for the no. 1 pick, Ballard trades up to 3 to secure his favorite QB in Anthony Richardson. He's a physical and athletic marvel and he has some of the same attributes that made Jalen Hurts successful with Steichen in Philly. The Colts will use AR's ability to run as a foundational element of their offense, especially early in his career and will try to develop his pocket game in practice and is some selected package in specific situations early in his career. 

 

(trade - #35 for #39 and # 93 from the Panthers... typical Ballard trade... get an extra pick for moving a few slots down)

 

Round 2, pick 39 (via Carolina) Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State - one of the most dynamic TEs to come into the league in last couple of years. He has some injury concern so that's why he might fall to the second, but make no mistake, he is a weapon as a receiver and as a runner after he catches the ball. 

 

Round 3, pick 79 (via Washington) - Joe Tippman, OC, Wisconsin - big and athletic interior lineman, 2 year starter at Wisconsin. He's great on the move and he has some power too. Might need some hand technique improvement. Stroud gets his center from the very start of his career. They can grow and develop together in the league. 

 

Round 3, pick 93 (via Carolina via SF) - Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss - he's receiving some lofty comps stylistically(AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel). He's not as polished as those, but he's still well rounded receiver who can separate, has some athletic ability and can also produce some YAC. Early role in the slot... later... who knows? 

 

Round 4, pick 118 (via Washington) - Yaya Diaby, EDGE, Louisville - he's the prototypical Ballard EDGE-setting DE - 6'3" 263, 34" arms, explosive and athletic off the ball, lacks refinement in pass-rush moves. Good developmental project to replace the previous one in Banogu. 

 

Round 5, pick 138 - Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane - Athletic and long(almost 34" arms), team captain, 3 year starter. Sideline to sideline athlete. A bit small for most teams, but we have had very good success with undersized athletes at LB. Fills the statsheet - tackles,TFL, sacks, INTs, FF... he does it all ... similar to other LBs Ballard has drafted before. 

 

Round 5, pick 162 (via Buffalo) - Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland - a versatile corner with length(almost 32" arms). Can be outside corner in zone schemes, but initially I expect him to be depth/competition for the slot corner spot 

 

Round 7, pick 221 - Jon Gaines II, OG, UCLA - depth/developmental prospect

 

Round 7, pick 236(via TB) Gervarrius Owens, S, Houston - depth/developmental prospect 

 

Disclaimer: Previously I've counted the money for the rookies signing toward the cap but in reality those 8-9 players that will get contracts will replace other players with similar value futures contract that are accounted for in the top 53 number to begin with. We have over 20 players with salary number of around or under 1M and the dead money on huge majority of them is minuscule, so when we cut down the roster to 53, depending on who we cut, the real remaining cap space would be around 15-20M most likely, which will give us plenty of room to sign the rookies and give us room to operate during the season. 

 

Depth chart:

 

Offense:
QB: Marcus Mariota, Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, D'vonte Price, Jake Funk, Aaron Shampklin
WR1: Michael Pittman, Mike Strachan, Jr., Vyncint Smith, 
WR2: Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin, Malik Turner, Kristian Wilkerson
Slot: Parris Campbell, Jonathan Mingo, Ethan Fernea
TE1: Jelani Woods, Andrew Ogletree, Nikola Kalinic
TE2: Luke Musgrave, Kylen Granson, Jalen Wydermyer, Rashod Berry
LT: Bernhard Raimann, Trey Pipkins

LG: Quenton Nelson, Jon Gaines II, Wesley French, Arlington Hambright
OC: Joe Tippman, Billy Price, Danny Pinter
RG: David Edwards, Will Fries, Dakoda Shepley
RT: Braden Smith, Jordan Murray

Deffense:
LDE: Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo 
DT: Grover Stewart, Chris Williams, McTelvin Agim, Eric Johnson
3T:  DeForest Buckner, Kameron Cline
RDE: Samson Ebukam, Yaya Diaby 
WILL: Shaquille Leonard, Dorian Williams, 
MIKE:  Zaire Franklin, JoJo Domann, Forrest Rhyne
SAM: EJ Speed, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Segun Olubi
SS: Rodney McLeod, Nick Cross, Gervarrius Owens, Marcel Dabo, Henry Black
FS: Rodney Thomas, Julian Blackmon
RCB: Isaiah Rodgers, Jakorian Bennett, Trevor Denbow
LCB: Stephon Gilmore, Dallis Flowers, Kevin Toliver II, Darrell Baker Jr.
Slot: Keisean Nixon,  David Vereen

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Chase McLaughin, Lucas Havrisik

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in blue are new FAs/trade acquisitions

***bolded names I project as top 51

 

Final thoughts:

- I'm not gonna lie... I just like this one better than the previous one. I don't think trading up to 1 is worth it. And I like Richardson better long-term than the rest of the QBs. 

- OT is still thin... IMO we will need to add some more depth at roster cuts day... 

- in this one I had the opportunity to trade back in the second and get an extra top 100 pick. This helps a ton. Got 2 weapons with those picks. IMO both Mingo and Musgrave will be day 1 contributors. Love how this one turned out. Start stacking up the roster with more and more dynamic weapons for Richardson. 

- bridge QB was a question in the previous version because Stroud is so different to Mariota, but I think here the matchup is perfect. You will be able to run relatively similar offense with both Mariota and Richardson

- I like the defense, I think it can be good. At least as good as last year, especially if Leonard is back to form

 

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. Cheers everybody 

 

(Disclaimer: I used the blueprint from my my prevous years' mocks so it's possible there are some mistakes/leftovers from it that I didn't catch. Please don't hesitate to point out any glaring errors or things you think are overly unrealistic.)

[NFLfan]

Very nicely done. Both look great. I think I would like the second better, especially by moving up and still getting an additional draft pick, if I read that correctly. 

 

I believe that Ballard will draft someone like Felix Anudike-Uzomah or Adetomiwa Adebawore. @Defjamz26 What do you think? Do you guys believe these are Ballard type players?

 

Adetomiwa Adebawore:

 

[Defjamz26]

5 hours ago, NFLfan said:

Very nicely done. Both look great. I think I would like the second better, especially by moving up and still getting an additional draft pick, if I read that correctly. 

 

I believe that Ballard will draft someone like Felix Anudike-Uzomah or Adetomiwa Adebawore. @Defjamz26 What do you think? Do you guys believe these are Ballard type players?

 

Adetomiwa Adebawore:

 

They are definitely Ballard prototypes in every sense of the word. But I feel like Zach Harrison from Ohio State, YaYa Diaby, and Isaiah Foskey are also of the same mold. This draft is filled with Build-A-Ballard edge rushers IMO. Ballard will not leave this draft without one.