CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

[Superman]

Here's my report on CJ Stroud, based on watching of a couple dozen cut-ups of his games and highlights, plus a few games I've seen in real time. Please share your thoughts on him also.

 

I didn't take great notes this time, so I won't have a lot of specific references. Maybe as draft season continues I'll be able to add some in later posts. Getting my thoughts down now so I can move on to a couple other guys.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cj-stroud-1.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._J._Stroud

 

Basic info: Born in October 2001 (yeesh), he'll be 21 years old at the start of the 2023 season. Full name is Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV, he was born and raised in southern California (Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles inland east from LA). A standout HS athlete, he participated in Elite 11 (with Bryce Young), and had multiple offers, including Georgia and Michigan, but chose OSU, where he redshirted behind Justin Fields in 2020. He started 12 games in 2021, 13 in 2022, threw 85 TDs and 12 INTs, and was a Heisman finalist both years.

 

Size/body: Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he has a good frame and is solidly built. Not a figure model or anything, but he could easily carry more muscle and size without risking his ability to move around. Does well with contact in the pocket, and is smart enough to avoid big hits whenever he scrambles. He maintains balance and stands tall when the pocket gets crowded. 7/10

 

Movement/athleticism: Not totally deficient, he can actually run a little bit when he has to. I wouldn't call him quick sudden, he's not great at change of direction, but he's also not stuck in the mud. This is not a strength of his game, I don't think I'd gameplan for him to be a runner very often, but he can make plays with his legs here and there if he has to. (His only play in 2020 is actually a 48 yard QB keeper for a TD.) He shocked everyone in the CFP against Georgia by scrambling and running, which is more of a testament to his heart than to his legs, IMO; most of his escapes and runs in that game were inelegant and probably don't translate to Sundays, but at least he opened up on the biggest stage. Overall, he's more Matt Ryan than Andrew Luck, as a runner. 5/10

 

Throwing ability: I think he can make every throw, especially from the pocket. His arm is big enough to push the ball 60 yards downfield, with accuracy, and he doesn't have to double hop and launch to get it there. He's a smooth thrower, even when he needs to use his entire arm. On boundary throws, he can zip it 20+ yards for a deep out, opposite hash, on a line. Intermediate over the middle, his ball has plenty of speed, but he also can take a bit off and make a catchable touch throw when needed. As for the crazy "wow" throws, not a lot to talk about; he's not a super creative and adventurous passer, not usually going to drop arm angle or try to make a throw while he's being tackled, but he can deliver nicely on bootlegs and scrambles as long as he has enough space and time to get his hip and shoulder lined up. While he has more than enough arm for the NFL, he's not really going to blow anyone's mind with amazing bombs like other guys might be able to. 7/10

 

Accuracy: Maybe the most impressive element of his game, he generally puts the ball right where he wants to, assuming his footwork is right. Typical overhead thrower who follows through to the target, throws a catchable ball, and tends to use the proper amount of firepower so his receivers can adjust and finish the play. On crossers, he leads receivers well, and he throws into zone coverage without putting his receivers in unnecessary danger. On corners and outs, he can throw a flat bullet, or loft it with great touch for an over the shoulder throw. Sometimes has a tendency to lead receivers out of bounds, maybe in an effort to avoid potential turnovers. Seems like a reasonable time to acknowledge the level of support he has from his receivers. In 2021 he was throwing to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (who went 10th and 11th respectively in the 2022 draft), as well as sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who had 1,606 yards and 9 TDs, and then sat out most of 2022). The odd man out was true freshman Marvin Harrison Jr., who in 2022 was the best WR in college football. Stroud has benefitted from as good a group of pass catchers as any other QB prospect in the last few seasons. I bring that up because there are probably some throws that get completed with the help of these outstanding WRs that maybe make his accuracy (and completion percentage) look better than they really are. Not a knock on him, but he's had an outstanding supporting cast both years he's been the starter. Like most QBs, his accuracy suffers when he's under pressure, his throwing motion can get rushed, etc. But in general, he's consistent and reliable in his ability to deliver the ball accurately. 8/10

 

Mechanics/footwork: His drop and his stance are textbook -- feet shoulder width apart, consistent height, not bouncy (he'll start to pump his feet when he's anticipating a throw, but usually he's under control and not compromising his eye level). Typically plants and transfers weight front to back with no problems, leading to a textbook delivery. He's usually in shotgun, but will get under center at times, usually for play action, and on fakes he does a good job of playing out the fake handoff, but is quick to get his head, shoulders, and hips around so he can make the throw. When the pocket gets crowded, he might fade off of a throw rather than stepping through, and when he does he sacrifices some power, and sometimes the ball can die on him, even on shorter throws. Outside the pocket, his deliver can get sloppy, especially under pressure, which isn't unusual, but he has an established ability to get lined up for moving throws and place the ball well. 8/10

 

Processing/anticipation/vision: Working in a modern day pro style offense, mostly from the pocket, he's effective at making quick reads and getting the ball to the target. He identifies the coverage and fires. His drop is typically pre-determined based on his primary read, so he's lined up to throw. This leads to nice anticipation passes to open receivers. When his primary is covered, he can be slow to move on, his feet can get stuck, and he'll get into trouble. That said, there are plenty of examples of him identifying, moving the safety with his eyes, and then coming back to the other side of the field to make a throw. There are also some instances of full field progressions leading to check down throws, but I think the more common tendency is quick read + throw, or first read + check down. Usually keeps his eyes downfield, not being overwhelmed by the pass rush. Don't want to overlook the fact that he can really struggle coming off his first read, leading to pressured throws, scrambles, and sacks. At the same time, he does a good job of not trying to force a throw when the play is obviously over. Again I'll mention that he has fantastic WRs that make his reads a lot easier. 7/10

 

Pocket presence: Most comfortable in the pocket, and very confident in his ability to stand tall and make throws. His pocket movement is usually really good, he feels the pressure and can navigate well to buy time, while still maintaining good footwork and balance. Just like he has good WRs, he usually has good protection. This was put to the test against Georgia in the CFP, but Stroud seemed ready for it, he knew when to take off and run, and he still made good throws with pressure coming. He even shook a couple of rushers in that game, and although he was sacked four times, it easily could have been 14 if not for his play. Again I don't think he looked like Michael Vick in that game or anything, but it was strong evidence that he could use his legs to extend plays if he had to. At other times he'll hang in the pocket too long. Connected to processing, he will need to speed up his clock and decision making in the NFL. 7/10

 

Intangibles: He didn't really have too many tough opponents in college, but he showed a lot against Georgia: fight, determination, leadership, etc. I think he wanted to return for another season -- he never beat Michigan, he kept coming up short in the Heisman race, and he never played in the CFP championship game, and I think those things made him seriously consider not declaring this year, which speaks to his competitive drive. This is noteworthy to me because his usual demeanor is kind of subdued, he comes across a little quiet to me, so anything that shows some fire stands out to me. He's the youngest of four kids, and his teenage years were troubled, with his father struggling with drugs, then getting sent to prison when CJ was 13, and he's still there. His mother didn't have a lot of money, and he didn't come from a situation where he was groomed to be a QB from a young age -- no 7-7 camps, no private QB coach, etc. He's recently talked about some of his past, and it's obvious that he's tried to keep himself focused so he can reach his goals. His attitude and approach seem excellent, and I think teams are going to be impressed with him in interviews. 9/10

 

Projection: The playing style/ability comparison is Jared Goff. Prefers to deal from the pocket, not a huge threat to run, but don't sleep on him, doesn't have a powerhouse arm but he's not struggling to make NFL throws, good size and strength, and has the ability to get stronger without sacrificing his play style. Some questions about how high his ceiling is in today's NFL, because he doesn't threaten with his legs, but I don't think he's so deficient in this area that he'll hold your offense back. My big question is how he'll handle not having All American receivers across the field, and whether he can perform every week without top notch pass protection. His ceiling is probably pretty high, but his biggest areas of development, especially if he's going try to thrive from the pocket, are going to be speeding up his decision making and not hanging in the pocket when everyone is covered. If he lands in a bad situation and keeps holding the ball, we're probably comparing him to rookie Jared Goff.

 

Remaining QB prospects: Anthony Richardson, Hendon Hooker

 

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74880-will-levis-qb-kentucky/

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74915-bryce-young-qb-alabama/

 

[stitches]

As always, great report... adding my thoughts down below... 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Here's my report on CJ Stroud, based on watching of a couple dozen cut-ups of his games and highlights, plus a few games I've seen in real time. Please share your thoughts on him also.

 

I didn't take great notes this time, so I won't have a lot of specific references. Maybe as draft season continues I'll be able to add some in later posts. Getting my thoughts down now so I can move on to a couple other guys.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cj-stroud-1.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._J._Stroud

 

Basic info: Born in October 2001 (yeesh), he'll be 21 years old at the start of the 2023 season. Full name is Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV, he was born and raised in southern California (Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles inland east from LA). A standout HS athlete, he participated in Elite 11 (with Bryce Young), and had multiple offers, including Georgia and Michigan, but chose OSU, where he redshirted behind Justin Fields in 2020. He started 12 games in 2021, 13 in 2022, threw 85 TDs and 12 INTs, and was a Heisman finalist both years.

 

Size/body: Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he has a good frame and is solidly built. Not a figure model or anything, but he could easily carry more muscle and size without risking his ability to move around. Does well with contact in the pocket, and is smart enough to avoid big hits whenever he scrambles. He maintains balance and stands tall when the pocket gets crowded. 7/10

Agreed. His height is good... his weight is OK... he seems more lanky than sturdy to me, but he has shown ability to shed off some arm tackles so I can't really fault his strength too much. It might be a problem with stronger defenders in the NFL, but so far I wouldn't say it has been. 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Movement/athleticism: Not totally deficient, he can actually run a little bit when he has to. I wouldn't call him quick sudden, he's not great at change of direction, but he's also not stuck in the mud. This is not a strength of his game, I don't think I'd gameplan for him to be a runner very often, but he can make plays with his legs here and there if he has to. (His only play in 2020 is actually a 48 yard QB keeper for a TD.) He shocked everyone in the CFP against Georgia by scrambling and running, which is more of a testament to his heart than to his legs, IMO; most of his escapes and runs in that game were inelegant and probably don't translate to Sundays, but at least he opened up on the biggest stage. Overall, he's more Matt Ryan than Andrew Luck, as a runner. 5/10

That Georgia game threw me in for a loop. I am still not sure how to square what he did in that game vs what he did for the rest of his career in Ohio State. My biggest worry is that this game is more a testament of his heart and drive than a testament of his ability to move and win with athleticism. I think I said that earlier in another thread - those scrambles in the Georgia game... they looked more like that weird 30+ yard run Matt Ryan had earlier last year than anything the new modern day athletic QBs do. I lean more towards thinking that game was a true outlier and he probably won't be able to do that in the league... and still there is this grain of doubt... but what if he could do at least a bit of that? 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Throwing ability: I think he can make every throw, especially from the pocket. His arm is big enough to push the ball 60 yards downfield, with accuracy, and he doesn't have to double hop and launch to get it there. He's a smooth thrower, even when he needs to use his entire arm. On boundary throws, he can zip it 20+ yards for a deep out, opposite hash, on a line. Intermediate over the middle, his ball has plenty of speed, but he also can take a bit off and make a catchable touch throw when needed. As for the crazy "wow" throws, not a lot to talk about; he's not a super creative and adventurous passer, not usually going to drop arm angle or try to make a throw while he's being tackled, but he can deliver nicely on bootlegs and scrambles as long as he has enough space and time to get his hip and shoulder lined up. While he has more than enough arm for the NFL, he's not really going to blow anyone's mind with amazing bombs like other guys might be able to. 7/10

 

Agreed. I'm not blown away by his throwing ability, arm strength, switching of arm angles, etc... but at the same time it doesn't look like it's a problem by any means. IMO he would have average to slightly above average arm in the league and plenty good enough to make almost any throw, especially from a clean pocket. 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Accuracy: Maybe the most impressive element of his game, he generally puts the ball right where he wants to, assuming his footwork is right. Typical overhead thrower who follows through to the target, throws a catchable ball, and tends to use the proper amount of firepower so his receivers can adjust and finish the play. On crossers, he leads receivers well, and he throws into zone coverage without putting his receivers in unnecessary danger. On corners and outs, he can throw a flat bullet, or loft it with great touch for an over the shoulder throw. Sometimes has a tendency to lead receivers out of bounds, maybe in an effort to avoid potential turnovers. Seems like a reasonable time to acknowledge the level of support he has from his receivers. In 2021 he was throwing to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (who went 10th and 11th respectively in the 2022 draft), as well as sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who had 1,606 yards and 9 TDs, and then sat out most of 2022). The odd man out was true freshman Marvin Harrison Jr., who in 2022 was the best WR in college football. Stroud has benefitted from as good a group of pass catchers as any other QB prospect in the last few seasons. I bring that up because there are probably some throws that get completed with the help of these outstanding WRs that maybe make his accuracy (and completion percentage) look better than they really are. Not a knock on him, but he's had an outstanding supporting cast both years he's been the starter. Like most QBs, his accuracy suffers when he's under pressure, his throwing motion can get rushed, etc. But in general, he's consistent and reliable in his ability to deliver the ball accurately. 8/10

Love his accuracy. I actually think 8/10 might be understatement of his ability in this regard. I think his ball placement is superb, I think him leading his receivers is probably the best in the class. I absolutely agree that his supporting cast has to factor into this analysis, but I also want to point out how many great opportunity those receivers had to get a ball on the move and earn more yards after the catch because of very well placed balls. When watching his tape I thought there actually is a symbiotic relationship there rather than parasitic. The receivers helped him a ton by winning pre-catch and he helped them a lot by placing the ball at spots that allowed them to do extra damage after the catch. 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Mechanics/footwork: His drop and his stance are textbook -- feet shoulder width apart, consistent height, not bouncy (he'll start to pump his feet when he's anticipating a throw, but usually he's under control and not compromising his eye level). Typically plants and transfers weight front to back with no problems, leading to a textbook delivery. He's usually in shotgun, but will get under center at times, usually for play action, and on fakes he does a good job of playing out the fake handoff, but is quick to get his head, shoulders, and hips around so he can make the throw. When the pocket gets crowded, he might fade off of a throw rather than stepping through, and when he does he sacrifices some power, and sometimes the ball can die on him, even on shorter throws. Outside the pocket, his deliver can get sloppy, especially under pressure, which isn't unusual, but he has an established ability to get lined up for moving throws and place the ball well. 8/10

Like in other threads I will say I'm no mechanics expert so I would defer to others and just say he indeed looks like a very natural and textbook thrower. 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Processing/anticipation/vision: Working in a modern day pro style offense, mostly from the pocket, he's effective at making quick reads and getting the ball to the target. He identifies the coverage and fires. His drop is typically pre-determined based on his primary read, so he's lined up to throw. This leads to nice anticipation passes to open receivers. When his primary is covered, he can be slow to move on, his feet can get stuck, and he'll get into trouble. That said, there are plenty of examples of him identifying, moving the safety with his eyes, and then coming back to the other side of the field to make a throw. There are also some instances of full field progressions leading to check down throws, but I think the more common tendency is quick read + throw, or first read + check down. Usually keeps his eyes downfield, not being overwhelmed by the pass rush. Don't want to overlook the fact that he can really struggle coming off his first read, leading to pressured throws, scrambles, and sacks. At the same time, he does a good job of not trying to force a throw when the play is obviously over. Again I'll mention that he has fantastic WRs that make his reads a lot easier. 7/10

Yep... there was this graphic that showed the EPA/play vs time to throw of the QBs in this draft.  Unsurprisingly Stroud's EPA/play is very high early in the snap and his efficiency takes a big dip the more time he holds the ball. I think this is further evidence to support your analysis that he struggles moving off his first read AND support to my stance that he might have trouble winning out of structure/on the move(since most of those happen the longer time it takes for him to throw the ball):

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Pocket presence: Most comfortable in the pocket, and very confident in his ability to stand tall and make throws. His pocket movement is usually really good, he feels the pressure and can navigate well to buy time, while still maintaining good footwork and balance. Just like he has good WRs, he usually has good protection. This was put to the test against Georgia in the CFP, but Stroud seemed ready for it, he knew when to take off and run, and he still made good throws with pressure coming. He even shook a couple of rushers in that game, and although he was sacked four times, it easily could have been 14 if not for his play. Again I don't think he looked like Michael Vick in that game or anything, but it was strong evidence that he could use his legs to extend plays if he had to. At other times he'll hang in the pocket too long. Connected to processing, he will need to speed up his clock and decision making in the NFL. 7/10

I liked his pocket presence. I thought it was one of his better attributes. He does move well in the pocket, generally has a good awareness and makes the required adjustments sliding in the pocket to avoid rushers. His limitations when it comes to pocket movement IMO again are connected more with the lack of sudden movement and explosive athleticism. For example, there are snaps that Anthony Richardson has where he avoids rushers in the pocket with pure athletic freakiness and I'm not talking about him running out of the pocket but just being able to make sudden and sharp evading movements in the pocket. I don't think Stroud can do that even when he sees the rushers coming. With that said, I think he has everything he needs as far as pocket presence in order to be a successful pocket passer... well... as long as he speeds up his processing a bit and doesn't end up in a completely compromised situation with his OL. 

 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Intangibles: He didn't really have too many tough opponents in college, but he showed a lot against Georgia: fight, determination, leadership, etc. I think he wanted to return for another season -- he never beat Michigan, he kept coming up short in the Heisman race, and he never played in the CFP championship game, and I think those things made him seriously consider not declaring this year, which speaks to his competitive drive. This is noteworthy to me because his usual demeanor is kind of subdued, he comes across a little quiet to me, so anything that shows some fire stands out to me. He's the youngest of four kids, and his teenage years were troubled, with his father struggling with drugs, then getting sent to prison when CJ was 13, and he's still there. His mother didn't have a lot of money, and he didn't come from a situation where he was groomed to be a QB from a young age -- no 7-7 camps, no private QB coach, etc. He's recently talked about some of his past, and it's obvious that he's tried to keep himself focused so he can reach his goals. His attitude and approach seem excellent, and I think teams are going to be impressed with him in interviews. 9/10

Thanks for his background story. I haven't really gotten into the players' backgrounds much. He sounds like a determined and self-driven guy who has it all in that department. Good to know. I bet he will impress NFL FOs... 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Projection: The playing style/ability comparison is Jared Goff. Prefers to deal from the pocket, not a huge threat to run, but don't sleep on him, doesn't have a powerhouse arm but he's not struggling to make NFL throws, good size and strength, and has the ability to get stronger without sacrificing his play style. Some questions about how high his ceiling is in today's NFL, because he doesn't threaten with his legs, but I don't think he's so deficient in this area that he'll hold your offense back. My big question is how he'll handle not having All American receivers across the field, and whether he can perform every week without top notch pass protection. His ceiling is probably pretty high, but his biggest areas of development, especially if he's going try to thrive from the pocket, are going to be speeding up his decision making and not hanging in the pocket when everyone is covered. If he lands in a bad situation and keeps holding the ball, we're probably comparing him to rookie Jared Goff.

Yep. Jared Goff is the comp here... him or Mac Jones. I feel like both are good comparisons. Good size, questionable athleticism/on the move playmaking. Accurate... He will most probably have to win from the pocket in the league, unless that Georgia game was more of a show of what he's been hiding before(doubt it) rather than just a happenstance and an outlier. I feel like he will need good protection and good weapons in order to show some of his best attributes. 

9 hours ago, Superman said:

Remaining QB prospects: Anthony Richardson, Hendon Hooker

 

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74880-will-levis-qb-kentucky/

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74915-bryce-young-qb-alabama/

 

 

[Dark Superman]

11 hours ago, Superman said:

Here's my report on CJ Stroud, based on watching of a couple dozen cut-ups of his games and highlights, plus a few games I've seen in real time. Please share your thoughts on him also.

 

I didn't take great notes this time, so I won't have a lot of specific references. Maybe as draft season continues I'll be able to add some in later posts. Getting my thoughts down now so I can move on to a couple other guys.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cj-stroud-1.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._J._Stroud

 

Basic info: Born in October 2001 (yeesh), he'll be 21 years old at the start of the 2023 season. Full name is Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV, he was born and raised in southern California (Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles inland east from LA). A standout HS athlete, he participated in Elite 11 (with Bryce Young), and had multiple offers, including Georgia and Michigan, but chose OSU, where he redshirted behind Justin Fields in 2020. He started 12 games in 2021, 13 in 2022, threw 85 TDs and 12 INTs, and was a Heisman finalist both years.

 

Size/body: Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he has a good frame and is solidly built. Not a figure model or anything, but he could easily carry more muscle and size without risking his ability to move around. Does well with contact in the pocket, and is smart enough to avoid big hits whenever he scrambles. He maintains balance and stands tall when the pocket gets crowded. 7/10

 

Movement/athleticism: Not totally deficient, he can actually run a little bit when he has to. I wouldn't call him quick sudden, he's not great at change of direction, but he's also not stuck in the mud. This is not a strength of his game, I don't think I'd gameplan for him to be a runner very often, but he can make plays with his legs here and there if he has to. (His only play in 2020 is actually a 48 yard QB keeper for a TD.) He shocked everyone in the CFP against Georgia by scrambling and running, which is more of a testament to his heart than to his legs, IMO; most of his escapes and runs in that game were inelegant and probably don't translate to Sundays, but at least he opened up on the biggest stage. Overall, he's more Matt Ryan than Andrew Luck, as a runner. 5/10

 

Throwing ability: I think he can make every throw, especially from the pocket. His arm is big enough to push the ball 60 yards downfield, with accuracy, and he doesn't have to double hop and launch to get it there. He's a smooth thrower, even when he needs to use his entire arm. On boundary throws, he can zip it 20+ yards for a deep out, opposite hash, on a line. Intermediate over the middle, his ball has plenty of speed, but he also can take a bit off and make a catchable touch throw when needed. As for the crazy "wow" throws, not a lot to talk about; he's not a super creative and adventurous passer, not usually going to drop arm angle or try to make a throw while he's being tackled, but he can deliver nicely on bootlegs and scrambles as long as he has enough space and time to get his hip and shoulder lined up. While he has more than enough arm for the NFL, he's not really going to blow anyone's mind with amazing bombs like other guys might be able to. 7/10

 

Accuracy: Maybe the most impressive element of his game, he generally puts the ball right where he wants to, assuming his footwork is right. Typical overhead thrower who follows through to the target, throws a catchable ball, and tends to use the proper amount of firepower so his receivers can adjust and finish the play. On crossers, he leads receivers well, and he throws into zone coverage without putting his receivers in unnecessary danger. On corners and outs, he can throw a flat bullet, or loft it with great touch for an over the shoulder throw. Sometimes has a tendency to lead receivers out of bounds, maybe in an effort to avoid potential turnovers. Seems like a reasonable time to acknowledge the level of support he has from his receivers. In 2021 he was throwing to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (who went 10th and 11th respectively in the 2022 draft), as well as sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who had 1,606 yards and 9 TDs, and then sat out most of 2022). The odd man out was true freshman Marvin Harrison Jr., who in 2022 was the best WR in college football. Stroud has benefitted from as good a group of pass catchers as any other QB prospect in the last few seasons. I bring that up because there are probably some throws that get completed with the help of these outstanding WRs that maybe make his accuracy (and completion percentage) look better than they really are. Not a knock on him, but he's had an outstanding supporting cast both years he's been the starter. Like most QBs, his accuracy suffers when he's under pressure, his throwing motion can get rushed, etc. But in general, he's consistent and reliable in his ability to deliver the ball accurately. 8/10

 

Mechanics/footwork: His drop and his stance are textbook -- feet shoulder width apart, consistent height, not bouncy (he'll start to pump his feet when he's anticipating a throw, but usually he's under control and not compromising his eye level). Typically plants and transfers weight front to back with no problems, leading to a textbook delivery. He's usually in shotgun, but will get under center at times, usually for play action, and on fakes he does a good job of playing out the fake handoff, but is quick to get his head, shoulders, and hips around so he can make the throw. When the pocket gets crowded, he might fade off of a throw rather than stepping through, and when he does he sacrifices some power, and sometimes the ball can die on him, even on shorter throws. Outside the pocket, his deliver can get sloppy, especially under pressure, which isn't unusual, but he has an established ability to get lined up for moving throws and place the ball well. 8/10

 

Processing/anticipation/vision: Working in a modern day pro style offense, mostly from the pocket, he's effective at making quick reads and getting the ball to the target. He identifies the coverage and fires. His drop is typically pre-determined based on his primary read, so he's lined up to throw. This leads to nice anticipation passes to open receivers. When his primary is covered, he can be slow to move on, his feet can get stuck, and he'll get into trouble. That said, there are plenty of examples of him identifying, moving the safety with his eyes, and then coming back to the other side of the field to make a throw. There are also some instances of full field progressions leading to check down throws, but I think the more common tendency is quick read + throw, or first read + check down. Usually keeps his eyes downfield, not being overwhelmed by the pass rush. Don't want to overlook the fact that he can really struggle coming off his first read, leading to pressured throws, scrambles, and sacks. At the same time, he does a good job of not trying to force a throw when the play is obviously over. Again I'll mention that he has fantastic WRs that make his reads a lot easier. 7/10

 

Pocket presence: Most comfortable in the pocket, and very confident in his ability to stand tall and make throws. His pocket movement is usually really good, he feels the pressure and can navigate well to buy time, while still maintaining good footwork and balance. Just like he has good WRs, he usually has good protection. This was put to the test against Georgia in the CFP, but Stroud seemed ready for it, he knew when to take off and run, and he still made good throws with pressure coming. He even shook a couple of rushers in that game, and although he was sacked four times, it easily could have been 14 if not for his play. Again I don't think he looked like Michael Vick in that game or anything, but it was strong evidence that he could use his legs to extend plays if he had to. At other times he'll hang in the pocket too long. Connected to processing, he will need to speed up his clock and decision making in the NFL. 7/10

 

Intangibles: He didn't really have too many tough opponents in college, but he showed a lot against Georgia: fight, determination, leadership, etc. I think he wanted to return for another season -- he never beat Michigan, he kept coming up short in the Heisman race, and he never played in the CFP championship game, and I think those things made him seriously consider not declaring this year, which speaks to his competitive drive. This is noteworthy to me because his usual demeanor is kind of subdued, he comes across a little quiet to me, so anything that shows some fire stands out to me. He's the youngest of four kids, and his teenage years were troubled, with his father struggling with drugs, then getting sent to prison when CJ was 13, and he's still there. His mother didn't have a lot of money, and he didn't come from a situation where he was groomed to be a QB from a young age -- no 7-7 camps, no private QB coach, etc. He's recently talked about some of his past, and it's obvious that he's tried to keep himself focused so he can reach his goals. His attitude and approach seem excellent, and I think teams are going to be impressed with him in interviews. 9/10

 

Projection: The playing style/ability comparison is Jared Goff. Prefers to deal from the pocket, not a huge threat to run, but don't sleep on him, doesn't have a powerhouse arm but he's not struggling to make NFL throws, good size and strength, and has the ability to get stronger without sacrificing his play style. Some questions about how high his ceiling is in today's NFL, because he doesn't threaten with his legs, but I don't think he's so deficient in this area that he'll hold your offense back. My big question is how he'll handle not having All American receivers across the field, and whether he can perform every week without top notch pass protection. His ceiling is probably pretty high, but his biggest areas of development, especially if he's going try to thrive from the pocket, are going to be speeding up his decision making and not hanging in the pocket when everyone is covered. If he lands in a bad situation and keeps holding the ball, we're probably comparing him to rookie Jared Goff.

 

Remaining QB prospects: Anthony Richardson, Hendon Hooker

 

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74880-will-levis-qb-kentucky/

https://forums.colts.com/topic/74915-bryce-young-qb-alabama/

 

Hey Superman,

 

Thanks for going through all this for the forum. I really appreciate it! I can't wait to see the next one you post.

[colts52761]

Just was curious is Stroud better than Justin Fields or Jordan Love?

[compuls1v3]

11 hours ago, stitches said:

As always, great report... adding my thoughts down below... 

 

Agreed. His height is good... his weight is OK... he seems more lanky than sturdy to me, but he has shown ability to shed off some arm tackles so I can't really fault his strength too much. It might be a problem with stronger defenders in the NFL, but so far I wouldn't say it has been. 

 

That Georgia game threw me in for a loop. I am still not sure how to square what he did in that game vs what he did for the rest of his career in Ohio State. My biggest worry is that this game is more a testament of his heart and drive than a testament of his ability to move and win with athleticism. I think I said that earlier in another thread - those scrambles in the Georgia game... they looked more like that weird 30+ yard run Matt Ryan had earlier last year than anything the new modern day athletic QBs do. I lean more towards thinking that game was a true outlier and he probably won't be able to do that in the league... and still there is this grain of doubt... but what if he could do at least a bit of that? 

 

 

Agreed. I'm not blown away by his throwing ability, arm strength, switching of arm angles, etc... but at the same time it doesn't look like it's a problem by any means. IMO he would have average to slightly above average arm in the league and plenty good enough to make almost any throw, especially from a clean pocket. 

 

Love his accuracy. I actually think 8/10 might be understatement of his ability in this regard. I think his ball placement is superb, I think him leading his receivers is probably the best in the class. I absolutely agree that his supporting cast has to factor into this analysis, but I also want to point out how many great opportunity those receivers had to get a ball on the move and earn more yards after the catch because of very well placed balls. When watching his tape I thought there actually is a symbiotic relationship there rather than parasitic. The receivers helped him a ton by winning pre-catch and he helped them a lot by placing the ball at spots that allowed them to do extra damage after the catch. 

 

Like in other threads I will say I'm no mechanics expert so I would defer to others and just say he indeed looks like a very natural and textbook thrower. 

Yep... there was this graphic that showed the EPA/play vs time to throw of the QBs in this draft.  Unsurprisingly Stroud's EPA/play is very high early in the snap and his efficiency takes a big dip the more time he holds the ball. I think this is further evidence to support your analysis that he struggles moving off his first read AND support to my stance that he might have trouble winning out of structure/on the move(since most of those happen the longer time it takes for him to throw the ball):

 

 

 

I liked his pocket presence. I thought it was one of his better attributes. He does move well in the pocket, generally has a good awareness and makes the required adjustments sliding in the pocket to avoid rushers. His limitations when it comes to pocket movement IMO again are connected more with the lack of sudden movement and explosive athleticism. For example, there are snaps that Anthony Richardson has where he avoids rushers in the pocket with pure athletic freakiness and I'm not talking about him running out of the pocket but just being able to make sudden and sharp evading movements in the pocket. I don't think Stroud can do that even when he sees the rushers coming. With that said, I think he has everything he needs as far as pocket presence in order to be a successful pocket passer... well... as long as he speeds up his processing a bit and doesn't end up in a completely compromised situation with his OL. 

 

Thanks for his background story. I haven't really gotten into the players' backgrounds much. He sounds like a determined and self-driven guy who has it all in that department. Good to know. I bet he will impress NFL FOs... 

Yep. Jared Goff is the comp here... him or Mac Jones. I feel like both are good comparisons. Good size, questionable athleticism/on the move playmaking. Accurate... He will most probably have to win from the pocket in the league, unless that Georgia game was more of a show of what he's been hiding before(doubt it) rather than just a happenstance and an outlier. I feel like he will need good protection and good weapons in order to show some of his best attributes. 

 

I think his heart in the Georgia game indicates what his potential could be.  Maybe with some coaching, his legs could become a weapon for him.  

[Two_pound]

Excellent right up Superman, his arm and accuracy is incredible almost to the point of unbelievable when you watch him throw. The thing about Stroud is he knows where to throw the ball and he gets it there. He wants to beat you with his arm not his legs(hence the lack of rushing yards). I've been pounding the drum for Stroud for 2 months now, I hope we move up to take him, can't risk staying at 4.

[NewColtsFan]

15 hours ago, colts52761 said:

Just was curious is Stroud better than Justin Fields or Jordan Love?

Better than Fields?   Unknown.   
 

Better than Love?    Very likely much better.   The hope is he’s a heckuva lot better. 

[DougDew]

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

He shocked everyone in the CFP against Georgia by scrambling and running, which is more of a testament to his heart than to his legs, IMO; most of his escapes and runs in that game were inelegant and probably don't translate to Sundays

Agreed.  A great way to say it.  The runs against UGA got it done, but it did not answer the questions about his running ability, necessarily.  From an athleticism standpoint, I'd put him in the JB, Jamies Winston bucket more than the Jalen Hurts bucket...better than the former two but not by a whole bunch.  In an RPO offense, I don't think he would be the running threat, but he looks strong enough to do the Eagles QB sneak play.

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

Like most QBs, his accuracy suffers when he's under pressure, his throwing motion can get rushed, etc. But in general, he's consistent and reliable in his ability to deliver the ball accurately.

Accuracy is one of the top attributes needed for a successful NFL QB, which is a big reason why Stroud is #1 QB on my board.  

 

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

Don't want to overlook the fact that he can really struggle coming off his first read, leading to pressured throws, scrambles, and sacks. At the same time, he does a good job of not trying to force a throw when the play is obviously over. Again I'll mention that he has fantastic WRs that make his reads a lot easier.

 

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

At other times he'll hang in the pocket too long. Connected to processing, he will need to speed up his clock and decision making in the NFL

This is a concern/question.  Since I don't think he has great suddenness in his running, and since the talent at OSU made it look easier than it will in the NFL, will he be able to process fast enough to avoid being that statue QB that takes a lot of sacks?  He may try to move, but if he takes off late, his footspeed may not get it done in the NFL.

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

His mother didn't have a lot of money, and he didn't come from a situation where he was groomed to be a QB from a young age -- no 7-7 camps, no private QB coach, etc. He's recently talked about some of his past, and it's obvious that he's tried to keep himself focused so he can reach his goals. His attitude and approach seem excellent, and I think teams are going to be impressed with him in interviews.

Probably very receptive to NFL coaching. 

On 2/11/2023 at 10:14 PM, Superman said:

My big question is how he'll handle not having All American receivers across the field, and whether he can perform every week without top notch pass protection. His ceiling is probably pretty high, but his biggest areas of development, especially if he's going try to thrive from the pocket, are going to be speeding up his decision making and not hanging in the pocket when everyone is covered. If he lands in a bad situation and keeps holding the ball, we're probably comparing him to rookie Jared Goff.

Yep. Spot on. 

 

Very good analysis and summary.

[Superman]

On 2/12/2023 at 5:11 AM, stitches said:

That Georgia game threw me in for a loop. I am still not sure how to square what he did in that game vs what he did for the rest of his career in Ohio State. My biggest worry is that this game is more a testament of his heart and drive than a testament of his ability to move and win with athleticism. I think I said that earlier in another thread - those scrambles in the Georgia game... they looked more like that weird 30+ yard run Matt Ryan had earlier last year than anything the new modern day athletic QBs do. I lean more towards thinking that game was a true outlier and he probably won't be able to do that in the league... and still there is this grain of doubt... but what if he could do at least a bit of that? 

 

I don't think the foot speed and suddenness are there. Even in the Georgia game, he's not really blowing past defenders, he's just taking advantage of windows and angles.  Apparently he played through some injury in 2022, but he was even less of a threat in 2021. He has zero rushing TDs in two years, so he's not even running bootlegs and keepers inside the 5. We have 25 games of tendencies. He isn't a runner.

 

If he runs at the Combine, we're probably looking at a 4.9 forty, and a 7.5 three cone. 

[Gigc]

He's definitely a "glider." there are some guys who don't really look like they're busting * when they move --- they're smoooth. think Eric Dickerson. Long strider, upright, almost nonchalant.

have no idea what Stroud's timed speed is. should be interesting...

[PRnum1]

Please give a writeup on Stetson Bennett 

 

 

 

[Archer]

I’m all-in on Stroud right now.  I think Ballard will trade to #1 to get him.  Two reasons: 1) Ballard’s dislike of smaller players will very likely extend to Young in a major way, and 2) Levis will probably be on a Josh Allen-like trajectory, if he makes it in the league.  And Ballard will probably be gonzo if Irsay looks back on the 2023 season and thinks “We drafted the wrong QB.”  The fact that Stroud is NFL-ready and Levis is nowhere close should help Ballard to zoom in on Stroud out of self preservation…

[GwinnettColt]

I think Stroud would be the best qb pick in the draft.  What concerns me is that he came from Ohio State....no, not the history of OSU QB's in the NFL but the idea that their system is so solid and their O-line is so good that Stroud may struggle for a while behind Indy's less than mediocre line unless big upgrades are made.   I think Stroud will do well in the NFL wherever he goes.  Great QB and a likeable guy.   

[stitches]

Total score: 58/80 (wanted to ask you if the total means anything about how you rank the players or is it more about how you see them projecting to the league? @Superman)

 

Here are the totals for all players you've evaluated so far:

CJ Stroud: 58

Will Levis: 56

Bryce Young: 55

Anthony Richardson: 55

 

Is it surprising to you that Stroud got the highest composite score so far? 

 

[ChuggaBeer]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

Total score: 58/80 (wanted to ask you if the total means anything about how you rank the players or is it more about how you see them projecting to the league? @Superman)

 

Here are the totals for all players you've evaluated so far:

CJ Stroud: 58

Will Levis: 56

Bryce Young: 55

Anthony Richardson: 55

 

Is it surprising to you that Stroud got the highest composite score so far? 

 

Wait for Hooker   I think he is gonna surprise some folks 

[Superman]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:05 AM, stitches said:

Total score: 58/80 (wanted to ask you if the total means anything about how you rank the players or is it more about how you see them projecting to the league? @Superman)

 

Here are the totals for all players you've evaluated so far:

CJ Stroud: 58

Will Levis: 56

Bryce Young: 55

Anthony Richardson: 55

 

Is it surprising to you that Stroud got the highest composite score so far? 

 

 

Gonna come back to this for more discussion once I finish Hooker. But in general, the total doesn't do a good job of measuring a projection. For example, someone might consider Stroud as close to a finished product, and he's already pretty high in the refined areas of QBing, with no expectation that he'll get more athletic.  Richardson has plenty of room to get better in the areas where he's receiving low grades. They're probably the two most extreme prospects, out of the five, so it's a good comparison.

 

So a big question is going to be about what kind of weight is assigned to each category. You probably weigh Richardson's strong categories more heavily than you do Stroud's strong categories, right? 

 

Long story short, the projection isn't really part of the total. And it's the hardest part, IMO.

[chad72]

49 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Gonna come back to this for more discussion once I finish Hooker. But in general, the total doesn't do a good job of measuring a projection. For example, someone might consider Stroud as close to a finished product, and he's already pretty high in the refined areas of QBing, with no expectation that he'll get more athletic.  Richardson has plenty of room to get better in the areas where he's receiving low grades. They're probably the two most extreme prospects, out of the five, so it's a good comparison.

 

So a big question is going to be about what kind of weight is assigned to each category. You probably weigh Richardson's strong categories more heavily than you do Stroud's strong categories, right? 

 

Long story short, the projection isn't really part of the total. And it's the hardest part, IMO.

 

Do you think you can do a floor and ceiling score to add to the evaluation?   Or is that too subjective?

[Superman]

14 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Do you think you can do a floor and ceiling score to add to the evaluation?   Or is that too subjective?

 

I do intend to come back and give more specific projections on each prospect. I wanted to finish the five first, mostly to get my thoughts organized and published before the Combine, and before I really start watching other people's breakdowns. Then I can compare and think through it all. 

[stitches]

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Gonna come back to this for more discussion once I finish Hooker. But in general, the total doesn't do a good job of measuring a projection. For example, someone might consider Stroud as close to a finished product, and he's already pretty high in the refined areas of QBing, with no expectation that he'll get more athletic.  Richardson has plenty of room to get better in the areas where he's receiving low grades. They're probably the two most extreme prospects, out of the five, so it's a good comparison.

Yep, that's the reason I asked, because if you value every attribute about the same, it's kind of notable that Richardson is so close to the big names of the draft and the areas he's maxed at and others aren't are the areas you don't expect much movement, while the areas he is ranked lowest at are the areas that actually can improve. And we hear all the time that accuracy is hard to fix, but you know what's even harder to fix? Being 5'10" is super hard(impossible) to fix. Or being unable to make athletic plays on the move if you are not athletic. 

 

 

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So a big question is going to be about what kind of weight is assigned to each category. You probably weigh Richardson's strong categories more heavily than you do Stroud's strong categories, right? 

Yep, indeed... the weight on those categories is an interesting topic for discussion. I wouldn't say I value  Richardson's strongest categories more heavily than Stroud's strongest categories, but again - I actually think one can improve his weaknesses, while I'm not so sure about the other one. It's also interesting topic of discussion about what translates in the league and what doesn't. IMO the level of athleticism Richardson has translates. He will be freak athlete wherever he plays. Even among the best athletes in the sport, his athleticism will still win IMO. I was reading some PFF studies from last year about things that translate from college to the NFL with QBs... Here are a couple of articles: 

- "pressured performance" - Bryce Young excells in this one... 

- "scrambling ability and sack avoidance" - Richardson is the best on this one... 

- "completion percentage over expected(CPOE)" - this is based on Josh Hermsmeyer's work for FiveThirthyEight - don't have the numbers for this class, I don't expect them to be great for RIchardson and they are probably good for Stroud. 

 

(worth pointing out that even though those are the best ones we have right now, they are still NOT good enough to predict success on their own, the correlation is still not strong enough to draw strong conclusions)

 

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Long story short, the projection isn't really part of the total. And it's the hardest part, IMO.

Yep... the projection is the hard part and the projection is wildly uncertain for players who have massive room for improvement in areas that actually can be improved. Ultimately I will probably bet on the uncertainty of Richardson improving his weaknesses over the certainty of what Stroud is presenting us with. In other words - I have more faith that Richardson can improve his accuracy/mechanics/processing from 4 to 7 than that Stroud will improve his movement/athleticism from 5 to 8. 

 

Again... with QBs IMO the goal should be high ceiling... within reason(i.e. I never expect Richardson to go from 4 to 9 or 10 in those categories... but 7 is probably reasonable expectation especially if you think a lot of his issues are mechanics-based when it comes to accuracy and you've seen the hints and signs of a player who can actually process the game and make reads, even if it's inconsistent right now). So yeah... I'm betting on the ceiling and I don't care about the floor. High floor gets you nowhere in this league. It gets you to mediocrity and to looking for another QB anyways. Which would mean I am OK with higher chance of a bust, as long as it comes with higher chance of a franchise QB too. 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

as long as it comes with higher chance of a franchise QB too. 

 

Gonna come back to the rest as we continue discussing QBs, but this part I wanted to pick on. It's off topic, but related.

 

I don't think this is important. The Rams moved up from #15 to take Goff at #1. The Eagles moved up from #8 to take Wentz at #2. The Niners moved up from #12 to take Lance at #3. And there are many other examples. The Giants were begging someone to move up to #4 in 2020. You can almost always go get your guy.

 

So I don't care about the higher chance of getting the QB thing as much. Just move up. I am concerned about the impact that incompetent QBing can have on the rest of the team and my player development, to the point that I'd rather not have a low floor QB who can't function trying to lead my offense. So I do care about the floor, but it's definitely a balancing act with the perceived ceiling of a prospect. If a guy appears to be capped out, he probably doesn't justify a high pick.

[stitches]

28 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Gonna come back to the rest as we continue discussing QBs, but this part I wanted to pick on. It's off topic, but related.

 

I don't think this is important. The Rams moved up from #15 to take Goff at #1. The Eagles moved up from #8 to take Wentz at #2. The Niners moved up from #12 to take Lance at #3. And there are many other examples. The Giants were begging someone to move up to #4 in 2020. You can almost always go get your guy.

Maybe I didn't express myself well, because I don't quite understand the connection between what I said and what you are saying... or I'm just not understanding you. When I said "higher chance of a franchise QB" I meant that the QB you pick(regardless of whether you traded up or not) turns out to be a franchise QB. I don't think it's hard to move up for QB, especially when there are no generational type QBs.

 

I meant if you have say the following 2 QBs with probabilities of those outcomes - prospect 1 (10% bust, 70% mid, 20% franchise QB) vs prospect 2(50% bust, 20% mid, 30% franchise QB) I'm picking prospect 2. 

 

28 minutes ago, Superman said:

So I don't care about the higher chance of getting the QB thing as much. Just move up. I am concerned about the impact that incompetent QBing can have on the rest of the team and my player development, to the point that I'd rather not have a low floor QB who can't function trying to lead my offense. So I do care about the floor, but it's definitely a balancing act with the perceived ceiling of a prospect. If a guy appears to be capped out, he probably doesn't justify a high pick.

Yeah, I don't mind moving up. If you love one of the QBs and think he has a good chance at becoming a franchise QB, go get him...  Incompetent QB might indeed have negative impact on the rest of the roster, but he will not survive long. IMO with the complete busts you know relatively quickly that they won't be able to overcome their limitations and you can move on. With the mediocre QBs it's much harder and teams delude themselves all the time that they have a chance if only they get a better CB or if only they get a better RG, if only they win a coinflip here or there... but the reality is... with mediocre QBs(especially once you have to pay them) you need a TON of other things to go your way and your margin for error is really small, so prolonged and consistent contention IMO is almost impossible. What you really need is a better QB. You need a top QB, a franchise type of QB. That's the goal. I love how Burrow answered a question about the Bengals window for contention... I'm paraphrasing here but he pretty much said "my whole career is the window for contention" and he's right. Top QBs give you some leeway and they cover so many warts. This doesn't absolve you from constructing a great team around them, but it's so much easier if you have the Burrows', Mahomes', Josh Allen's, etc. of the world. And we will have to face them in our conference for the next 10 years. We need our own. Not a Tannehill or a Bridgewater or a Cousins or Jimmy G types... those are OK QBs... they won't hurt the development of your roster... but they are not enough for consistent contention year in and year out...

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

Maybe I didn't express myself well, because I don't quite understand the connection between what I said and what you are saying... or I'm just not understanding you. When I said "higher chance of a franchise QB" I meant that the QB you pick(regardless of whether you traded up or not) turns out to be a franchise QB. I don't think it's hard to move up for QB, especially when there are no generational type QBs.

 

I meant if you have say the following 2 QBs with probabilities of those outcomes - prospect 1 (10% bust, 70% mid, 20% franchise QB) vs prospect 2(50% bust, 20% mid, 30% franchise QB) I'm picking prospect 2. 

 

Yeah, I don't mind moving up. If you love one of the QBs and think he has a good chance at becoming a franchise QB, go get him...  Incompetent QB might indeed have negative impact on the rest of the roster, but he will not survive long. IMO with the complete busts you know relatively quickly that they won't be able to overcome their limitations and you can move on. With the mediocre QBs it's much harder and teams delude themselves all the time that they have a chance if only they get a better CB or if only they get a better RG, if only they win a coinflip here or there... but the reality is... with mediocre QBs(especially once you have to pay them) you need a TON of other things to go your way and your margin for error is really small, so prolonged and consistent contention IMO is almost impossible. What you really need is a better QB. You need a top QB, a franchise type of QB. That's the goal. I love how Burrow answered a question about the Bengals window for contention... I'm paraphrasing here but he pretty much said "my whole career is the window for contention" and he's right. Top QBs give you some leeway and they cover so many warts. This doesn't absolve you from constructing a great team around them, but it's so much easier if you have the Burrows', Mahomes', Josh Allen's, etc. of the world. And we will have to face them in our conference for the next 10 years. We need our own. Not a Tannehill or a Bridgewater or a Cousins or Jimmy G types... those are OK QBs... they won't hurt the development of your roster... but they are not enough for consistent contention year in and year out...

 

I guess I misunderstood you, because I thought you were saying that if a low ceiling QB doesn't work out, his poor play is more likely to get you a higher draft pick in the future. And that's what I'm not on board with, but that's a fundamental disagreement between us.

 

To the bolded, I don't know. An extra 10% chance of a franchise QB is that appealing? I don't mind developing a limited guy for a couple years while we keep looking for the next guy, but to your point, I'm not spending a top ten pick on him, and I'm not pretending that my team is one supporting player away from contending. Until we have THE GUY, that's still priority #1. I'd rather have the limited guy for two years than the incompetent guy for two years; of course, you never expect your guy to be incompetent, but it's an obvious risk when you draft a raw but physically gifted QB.

 

Side note, to whatever extent it's actually possible to measure bust potential, I think almost every QB prospect has at least a 40-50% chance of busting. Bryce Young is the most polished, and I think he's a 50/50 shot in the NFL. Every few years there's a no doubter -- Burrow, Luck, etc., but those are rare.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Yep, that's the reason I asked, because if you value every attribute about the same, it's kind of notable that Richardson is so close to the big names of the draft and the areas he's maxed at and others aren't are the areas you don't expect much movement, while the areas he is ranked lowest at are the areas that actually can improve. And we hear all the time that accuracy is hard to fix, but you know what's even harder to fix? Being 5'10" is super hard(impossible) to fix. Or being unable to make athletic plays on the move if you are not athletic. 

 

 

Yep, indeed... the weight on those categories is an interesting topic for discussion. I wouldn't say I value  Richardson's strongest categories more heavily than Stroud's strongest categories, but again - I actually think one can improve his weaknesses, while I'm not so sure about the other one. It's also interesting topic of discussion about what translates in the league and what doesn't. IMO the level of athleticism Richardson has translates. He will be freak athlete wherever he plays. Even among the best athletes in the sport, his athleticism will still win IMO. I was reading some PFF studies from last year about things that translate from college to the NFL with QBs... Here are a couple of articles: 

- "pressured performance" - Bryce Young excells in this one... 

- "scrambling ability and sack avoidance" - Richardson is the best on this one... 

- "completion percentage over expected(CPOE)" - this is based on Josh Hermsmeyer's work for FiveThirthyEight - don't have the numbers for this class, I don't expect them to be great for RIchardson and they are probably good for Stroud. 

 

(worth pointing out that even though those are the best ones we have right now, they are still NOT good enough to predict success on their own, the correlation is still not strong enough to draw strong conclusions)

 

Yep... the projection is the hard part and the projection is wildly uncertain for players who have massive room for improvement in areas that actually can be improved. Ultimately I will probably bet on the uncertainty of Richardson improving his weaknesses over the certainty of what Stroud is presenting us with. In other words - I have more faith that Richardson can improve his accuracy/mechanics/processing from 4 to 7 than that Stroud will improve his movement/athleticism from 5 to 8. 

 

Again... with QBs IMO the goal should be high ceiling... within reason(i.e. I never expect Richardson to go from 4 to 9 or 10 in those categories... but 7 is probably reasonable expectation especially if you think a lot of his issues are mechanics-based when it comes to accuracy and you've seen the hints and signs of a player who can actually process the game and make reads, even if it's inconsistent right now). So yeah... I'm betting on the ceiling and I don't care about the floor. High floor gets you nowhere in this league. It gets you to mediocrity and to looking for another QB anyways. Which would mean I am OK with higher chance of a bust, as long as it comes with higher chance of a franchise QB too. 

I agree with  u   but answer this question. Has any qb ever been successful  with either Youngs physical  size  or  Richardson's accuracy? I dont think. So for both to be  successful  it will  blow away the laws of probability. Are u willing to invest a top 5 pick in either? Just asking. .

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I agree with  u   but answer this question. Has any qb ever been successful  with either Youngs physical  size  or  Richardson's accuracy? I dont think. So for both to be  successful  it will  blow away the laws of probability. Are u willing to invest a top 5 pick in either? Just asking. .

Josh Allen... but again... I recognize it's a risk and there is a lot of projection in that pick. He is not a great QB right now. 

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, stitches said:

Josh Allen... but again... I recognize it's a risk and there is a lot of projection in that pick. He is not a great QB right now. 

 

To me, Will Levis projects closest to Josh Allen for a ceiling.

 

Here is a good comparison article between Levis and Allen, how both had underwhelming final seasons in college etc. though Levis had better completion percentage numbers than Allen overall coming out of college.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-draft-2023-exploring-how-will-levis-compares-to-josh-allen-the-accuracies-and-inaccuracies/#:~:text=Like Allen%2C Levis missed two,and 10 interceptions in 2022.

 

 

Anthony Richardson is more like Lamar Jackson and will be a better athlete than any of the other 3 QBs, IMO, can be as good as Lamar is and has serious juke in his rushing part of his game

 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-09-19/lamar-jackson-college-football-career-stats-highlights-records

 

The last 2 years, we have seen both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts improve their completion percentage by 10%, unheard of in other years amongst rookie QBs, so the work ethic and leadership qualities are a big part of their ability to improve in the off season and put in the work. In both cases, Year 3 was the BIG year.

 

That is the KEY to determining if these QBs can reach their ceilings. However, don't expect them to hit their ceiling till about Year 3. Stroud and Young might hit it faster by Year 2, IMO.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Josh Allen... but again... I recognize it's a risk and there is a lot of projection in that pick. He is not a great QB right now. 

 I knew u would say that. I don't believe Josh even had that low of accuracy as Richardson had. It was in the 50's but I think Richardson is near 50  is  it not?

[DougDew]

On 2/21/2023 at 1:05 PM, stitches said:

Total score: 58/80 (wanted to ask you if the total means anything about how you rank the players or is it more about how you see them projecting to the league? @Superman)

 

Here are the totals for all players you've evaluated so far:

CJ Stroud: 58

Will Levis: 56

Bryce Young: 55

Anthony Richardson: 55

 

Is it surprising to you that Stroud got the highest composite score so far? 

 

I think there has to be some weightings of the various categories.  Is a 8/10 in accuracy more important than an 8/10 in athleticism.

 

I'd say if you weighted what is more important....which can be further subjective..., Stroud separates even more, and Levis maybe more from the other two? 

[stitches]

17 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

 I knew u would say that. I don't believe Josh even had that low of accuracy as Richardson had. It was in the 50's but I think Richardson is near 50  is  it not?

Their college stats are shockingly similar. 

Completion % - 54.7 vs 56.2

Yards per attempt - 7.9 vs 7.8

TD/INT last season 17/9 vs 16/6

Rushing TDs: 12 vs 12

Rushing yards: 1116 vs 767
Passing efficiency rating 133.6 vs 137.7

 

But again... I don't really want to be making that comparison because I think Josh Allen is a true outlier when it comes to development in the league. I like the comparison more as a stylistic comp. 

 

[Moosejawcolt]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

Their college stats are shockingly similar. 

Completion % - 54.7 vs 56.2

Yards per attempt - 7.9 vs 7.8

TD/INT last season 17/9 vs 16/6

Rushing TDs: 12 vs 12

Rushing yards: 1116 vs 767
Passing efficiency rating 133.6 vs 137.7

 

But again... I don't really want to be making that comparison because I think Josh Allen is a true outlier when it comes to development in the league. I like the comparison more as a stylistic comp. 

 

Agreed. Josh maybe the only  qb in the history of the NFL to go from where he was in college in terms of accuracy to where he is now.  Richardson is my guy but may need time. 

[stitches]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I guess I misunderstood you, because I thought you were saying that if a low ceiling QB doesn't work out, his poor play is more likely to get you a higher draft pick in the future.

Low floor QBs might help you get in better position to draft the next guy(but you shouldn't waste draft picks for that... if you want high pick to get your next QB there are more frugal and more efficient ways to achieve that). High floor&low ceiling QBs can help you get in the playoffs, especially on rookie deal, but IMO in the long-run having that type of QB might actually be the worst place to be. 

 

14 hours ago, Superman said:

And that's what I'm not on board with, but that's a fundamental disagreement between us.

 

To the bolded, I don't know. An extra 10% chance of a franchise QB is that appealing? I don't mind developing a limited guy for a couple years while we keep looking for the next guy, but to your point, I'm not spending a top ten pick on him, and I'm not pretending that my team is one supporting player away from contending. Until we have THE GUY, that's still priority #1. I'd rather have the limited guy for two years than the incompetent guy for two years; of course, you never expect your guy to be incompetent, but it's an obvious risk when you draft a raw but physically gifted QB.

 

Forgot to answer the question about the extra 10% yesterday... yes, I think the extra 10% is important. Reaching the ceiling is the most important thing for a QB... and having almost 50% higher chance to reach high ceiling to me is extremely important. Again... I don't care for the floor or for low ceilings. They don't help you build a consistent contender and once the time comes to pay the guy, they will actually hurt you. That's why I keep harping on about high ceiling with QBs. BTW this is specific for the QB position. With some other positions I don't mind high floor... because the QB position disproportionately impacts winning and disproportionately contributes to winning more than any other position per dollar paid. 

 

14 hours ago, Superman said:

Side note, to whatever extent it's actually possible to measure bust potential, I think almost every QB prospect has at least a 40-50% chance of busting. Bryce Young is the most polished, and I think he's a 50/50 shot in the NFL. Every few years there's a no doubter -- Burrow, Luck, etc., but those are rare.

Yeah, I don't know what the exact numbers are. I gave the example purely for illustrative purposes. 

[stitches]

CJ Stroud's measurements:

Height: 6'3"

Weight: 214 lbs

Hand size: 10"

Arm length: 32 5/8" 

[NFLfan]

6 hours ago, stitches said:

CJ Stroud's measurements:

Height: 6'3"

Weight: 214 lbs

Hand size: 10"

Arm length: 32 5/8" 

 

Have you watched the throwing session? Stroud looked very impressive. Very accurate with his throws. On NFL+, the announcers said that the fans seem to want Stroud. Richardson has impressed the fans too.

[stitches]

Just now, NFLfan said:

 

Have you watched the throwing session? Stroud looked very impressive. Very accurate with his throws. On NFL+, the announcers said that the fans seem to want Stroud. Richardson has impressed the fans too.

Yes, I just said in the other thread - the throwing session was supposed to be a showcase for Richardson's armstrength(and i has been) but it was Stroud that stole the show. Exceptionally smooth thrower of the ball with great accuracy and ball placement. 

[NFLfan]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Yes, I just said in the other thread - the throwing session was supposed to be a showcase for Richardson's armstrength(and i has been) but it was Stroud that stole the show. Exceptionally smooth thrower of the ball with great accuracy and ball placement. 

 

The Colts are drafting where they can't go wrong. I like Young but Stroud is very impressive. I like accurate throwers and Stroud is. Levis looked pretty good earlier in the day. 

[Aces101]

Crowd liked Stroud because how Ohio State fans travel 

[Moosejawcolt]

2 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

The Colts are drafting where they can't go wrong. I like Young but Stroud is very impressive. I like accurate throwers and Stroud is. Levis looked pretty good earlier in the day. 

I just eel that the  network is trying to sell these guys and I am not  getting tickled.

[DougDew]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

CJ Stroud's measurements:

Height: 6'3"

Weight: 214 lbs

Hand size: 10"

Arm length: 32 5/8" 

Only 10 pounds heavier than Young.  What's the deal?

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Only 10 pounds heavier than Young.  What's the deal?

That's just the way he's built. He's lanky and not stocky. It's just one more way in which he's pretty similar to Jared Goff.

[JackWV]

1 hour ago, Aces101 said:

Crowd liked Stroud because how Ohio State fans travel 

 

Columbus is fairly close to Indy..

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

 

The Colts are drafting where they can't go wrong. I like Young but Stroud is very impressive. I like accurate throwers and Stroud is. Levis looked pretty good earlier in the day. 

Maybe.   But I think that’s only true if the Colts like all 4 of the QBs and not just 1 or 2.    And unfortunately that’s rarely the case.   Teams tend to fall in live with their top choice and like the other choices mess and less.   And maybe even not like some of the choices.   
 

So if the Colts are sitting at 4, and the two QBs they like have been taken, will they really take a BPA like a defensive lineman? I hope so, but I doubt it.