2023 QB Draft Class - Who Do You Want?

[stitches]

17 hours ago, NFLfan said:

 

If I am reading and understanding these graphs correctly, Stroud and Young seem to be above the rest in this metric.

 

Yes, they are. They have been some of the best performing QBs in college. The question is can they carry this into the NFL. 

[Superman]

After watching and putting my thoughts down, I still don't know who the best fit would be for the Colts. One thing's for sure, there is no great, no-brainer prospect this year. I'm not in favor of moving up this year. If I had to choose between moving up to #1 or trading out of the first round entirely, I'm leaning slightly toward trading out. Call me crazy...

 

Stroud has the highest floor, but maybe the lowest ceiling. Richardson has the lowest floor, but maybe the highest ceiling. Bryce Young is really good and seems like a guy who would succeed in the NFL, but there's his size, and personally there are a couple things about the way he plays that I'm not super thrilled with. I think Levis is super toolsy and seems like he'd be ideal, but he has some serious fundamental issues. Hooker is older, not very dynamic, coming off an injury, but super productive and makes a ton of plays.

 

Big prediction: I don't think Richardson is a top 20 draft pick. Anything can happen, but the gap between his current form and what he needs to become to succeed in the NFL is too wide. This is the kind of pick that gets GMs fired. To me, he's the late first/early second round gamble -- ala Jalen Hurts (he's much more raw than Hurts, but more physically gifted). I just don't see a team taking such a huge risk so high in the draft. And I would not endorse it, personally. (I'm now on the record, before he absolutely torches the Combine this week.) @stitches

 

Also my personal opinion, I wouldn't take Bryce Young at the top of the first round. Someone will. I think the deck is stacked against him, physically, and while I like his game, he's not so incredibly impressive in any area that his outlier size doesn't matter. There is no significant compensating factor, IMO. 

 

So for me, at #4, it's either Levis or Stroud. Young probably won't be available. If we could grab Richardson in the late 20s, without giving up our 2024 first, I'd be alright with it. Hooker is probably available on Day 2. 

[COLT812]

To be honest, I don't see why people would pass up on potentially getting Bryce Young. I get he's undersized for a QB, but the dude's talent does more than make up for it in my opinion.

[stitches]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

After watching and putting my thoughts down, I still don't know who the best fit would be for the Colts. One thing's for sure, there is no great, no-brainer prospect this year. I'm not in favor of moving up this year. If I had to choose between moving up to #1 or trading out of the first round entirely, I'm leaning slightly toward trading out. Call me crazy...

Same. If we can trade down a few times and get a couple of 2024 1sts, that would be ideal... Example, trade down to 9, get Carolina's 1st... trade down in the 20s, get another 1st... But like both me and you and everybody in the world knows... this is not happening. 

 

3 hours ago, Superman said:

Stroud has the highest floor, but maybe the lowest ceiling. Richardson has the lowest floor, but maybe the highest ceiling. Bryce Young is really good and seems like a guy who would succeed in the NFL, but there's his size, and personally there are a couple things about the way he plays that I'm not super thrilled with. I think Levis is super toolsy and seems like he'd be ideal, but he has some serious fundamental issues. Hooker is older, not very dynamic, coming off an injury, but super productive and makes a ton of plays.

Yep, we see the big picture in a very similar way. 

3 hours ago, Superman said:

Big prediction: I don't think Richardson is a top 20 draft pick. Anything can happen, but the gap between his current form and what he needs to become to succeed in the NFL is too wide. This is the kind of pick that gets GMs fired. To me, he's the late first/early second round gamble -- ala Jalen Hurts (he's much more raw than Hurts, but more physically gifted). I just don't see a team taking such a huge risk so high in the draft. And I would not endorse it, personally. (I'm now on the record, before he absolutely torches the Combine this week.) @stitches

 

Yeah, I will try not to count Richardson's athleticism twice. Meaning... we already know he's freaky athletic... don't count it a second time as a plus when he destroys the tests. Now... I wonder if we can glean something for his throwing sessions. This is where I really want to watch him for "scouting" purposes... has he worked on his footwork and mechanics? Does he look more consistent with it? The negative is - it's a very sterile environment, so we won't know if he will revert back to his old ways when bodies start flying around him. But I guess, at least having started the process of improving his footwork would be a positive.

 

I guess ultimately, I value the upside more than you and I have more expansive view on the risk, which leads me to having him right there with the rest of the QBs. For me the risk includes not just drafting a total bust, but drafting mediocrity too. I want no part of it either way. For me both bust and mediocre QB lead to the same conclusion - you need another QB. The ceiling matters a ton for me. So boom or bust QB with high level of ceiling are very attractive to me. 

 

3 hours ago, Superman said:

Also my personal opinion, I wouldn't take Bryce Young at the top of the first round. Someone will. I think the deck is stacked against him, physically, and while I like his game, he's not so incredibly impressive in any area that his outlier size doesn't matter. There is no significant compensating factor, IMO. 

I'm still not sure about Bryce Young. One day I feel like he will probably be my 4th QB(which for all intents and purposes means "I don't want him" because he will be taken before at least one of the other 3 IMO)... the next day I'm oddly optimistic about his projections. Greg Cosell loves him(and doesn't seem to love AR) and I think he is very good at what he does so it gives me pause. But that size... man... I like how you put it - "no significant compensating factor". I said yesterday in a thread he's athletic but not athletic enough for his size(i.e. Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson) + his arm is unspectacular too(again, Murray and Wilson have much stronger arms too)... If we take him, there is enough good tape to be able to buy into, but before the draft... I think I would probably avoid him.

 

3 hours ago, Superman said:

So for me, at #4, it's either Levis or Stroud. Young probably won't be available. If we could grab Richardson in the late 20s, without giving up our 2024 first, I'd be alright with it. Hooker is probably available on Day 2. 

This draft class has me twisted like none other. Usually I have my strong preferences and I am able to separate the players in my head. This year is completely difference. I think I would legitimately be good with any of them. As long as we don't trade up. This I know for sure. None of them are worth giving next year's 1st round pick for IMO. 

[indykmj]

It's either Young or Stroud for me. I'm torn between the two. 

 

Beyond that, I wouldn't take either in the top-15ish. But I'd take Richardson before Levis. Levis seemingly has slightly higher floor. But I don't think his ceiling is all that high. 

 

As I said in another thread awhile back, he may be Jake Locker 2.0.

[Jimdcoltsfan]

I think I'm at the point of staying at 4 and getting one of the big 4...they all have potential and they all have flaws..so just get one of them..coach them up and hope for the best

[Jimdcoltsfan]

If we assume one of the 4 turns out great..I wonder what the best mathematical odds are for picking the right one in rounds 1-4 are...I'm guessing its the 3rd but I'm not smart so who knows

[husker61]

On 1/25/2023 at 12:02 AM, husker61 said:

 

I would love to trade the colts 1st for a 1 next year plus a lower 1 this year or more Depending on the team we trade with. I love Bennett later in the draft, and there is always a qb that falls for some reason that the colts could take a shot with. 

looks like Bennett had a good day!

[NFLfan]

@stitches Do you have a subscription to the Athletic? I read this article that you may find interesting. 

 

Would you draft a QB based on how well he handles the pocket? Let me know if you can access this. 

 

https://theathletic.com/4306086/2023/03/16/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-pocket-presence-evaluation?source=user-shared-article

 

Which of this year's QBs has the best pocket presence?

[VikingsFanInChennai]

40 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

@stitches Do you have a subscription to the Athletic? I read this article that you may find interesting. 

 

Would you draft a QB based on how well he handles the pocket? Let me know if you can access this. 

 

https://theathletic.com/4306086/2023/03/16/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-pocket-presence-evaluation?source=user-shared-article

 

Which of this year's QBs has the best pocket presence?

who do they rank high.. hope they got it right if they have Levis much lower in pocket presence. 

 

But that's just one of the factors, just like how arm strength and athleticism alone can't help. 

 

Factoring in all the traits, Young and Stroud should stand out, Young for sure. 

[NFLfan]

2 hours ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

who do they rank high.. hope they got it right if they have Levis much lower in pocket presence. 

 

But that's just one of the factors, just like how arm strength and athleticism alone can't help. 

 

Factoring in all the traits, Young and Stroud should stand out, Young for sure. 

 

Can you access the article?

 

The article talks about the need to devise a way to measure how a prospect QB would respond to the NFL "pocket". They say it cannot be replicated in practice or in college. A QB has to be in an NFL pocket to appreciate what comes with it. 

 

Quote

This creation might mimic what a quarterback sees and hears and feels inside an NFL pocket — and it would revolutionize the way coaches and scouts evaluate the most scrutinized position in sports. Getting an accurate read of a player’s response could be the best way to reduce the number of highly drafted quarterbacks who operated just fine in college but can’t cut it in the NFL.

 

The article talks about the NFL pocket and how being in it can be a "surreal" experience for rookie QBs   who are often surprised by how quick the pocket collapses in the NFL. They say it is hard to determine/predict how a QB will respond/adjust to the pocket in the NFL. Some former QBs and NFL people were interviewed.

 

Quote

“The hardest thing to mimic is an NFL pocket,” said Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone. “I don’t know if I’ve heard anyone describe it in any way that can help anyone who has never been in it. It’s a feeling which you can’t mimic. It’s a surreal feeling.”

 

Quote

“It’s stressful. It’s chaotic and it can be all-consuming,” Orlovsky continued. “That’s one of the major differences between being OK, good, really good or great, is how you can handle that place.”

 

As for the QBs this year, One person thought Levis would grade well in that variable but Lance Zierlein does not agree, saying he thought he was not poised in the pocket. He thought Hooker seems poised in the pocket and thought he was a sleeper. 

 

If you do not have access to the article, I can copy and paste some of it. It is fairly long but a good read. 

 

https://theathletic.com/4306086/2023/03/16/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-pocket-presence-evaluation?source=user-shared-article

[stitches]

2 hours ago, NFLfan said:

@stitches Do you have a subscription to the Athletic? I read this article that you may find interesting. 

 

Would you draft a QB based on how well he handles the pocket? Let me know if you can access this. 

 

https://theathletic.com/4306086/2023/03/16/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-pocket-presence-evaluation?source=user-shared-article

 

Which of this year's QBs has the best pocket presence?

Pocket presence is a bit nebulous ... a bit like the article suggests. For example, Levis will sit there in the pocket and take the hit while delivering the ball... BUT... he would be almost oblivious to pressure sometimes, he would get absolutely obliterated by a passrusher he had no idea was coming - so... is he staying in the pocket delivering the ball because he doesn't fear getting hit or because he just doesn't see and feel pressure at all. For example, he has the highest pressure to sack ratio from this whole draft class. 

 

At the same time, Stroud looks like he feels pressure well and maneuvers the pocket well... but once he gets pressured his productivity significantly drops. So does he have good pocket presence or not if he feels the pressure, reacts to it... but doesn't produce well in muddied pocket? 

 

Similar with Richardson - he has the lowest pressure to sack ratio(he avoids sacks the best of anybody in this draft class), which is especially impressive when you consider he is actually trying to extend plays. But again, even though he avoids the sacks well, his accuracy is not great when facing pressure. 

 

Bryce Young probably is the one that best combines both avoiding sacks, navigating the pocket(sometimes bailing from the pocket) and actually making positive plays. BUT... again, even with him, there is a question - can he translate this into the league. For example, sometimes with him when he gets constricted in the pocket you can see his physical limitations and he has trouble putting enough in the throw to make the required pass(average-ish arm strength?). 

 

If I had to subjectively rank them, I think it would be Young>=Richardson=Stroud>Levis... 

[NFLfan]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Pocket presence is a bit nebulous ... a bit like the article suggests. For example, Levis will sit there in the pocket and take the hit while delivering the ball... BUT... he would be almost oblivious to pressure sometimes, he would get absolutely obliterated by a passrusher he had no idea was coming - so... is he staying in the pocket delivering the ball because he doesn't fear getting hit or because he just doesn't see and feel pressure at all. For example, he has the highest pressure to sack ratio from this whole draft class. 

 

At the same time, Stroud looks like he feels pressure well and maneuvers the pocket well... but once he gets pressured his productivity significantly drops. So does he have good pocket presence or not if he feels the pressure, reacts to it... but doesn't produce well in muddied pocket? 

 

Similar with Richardson - he has the lowest pressure to sack ratio(he avoids sacks the best of anybody in this draft class), which is especially impressive when you consider he is actually trying to extend plays. But again, even though he avoids the sacks well, his accuracy is not great when facing pressure. 

 

Bryce Young probably is the one that best combines both avoiding sacks, navigating the pocket(sometimes bailing from the pocket) and actually making positive plays. BUT... again, even with him, there is a question - can he translate this into the league. For example, sometimes with him when he gets constricted in the pocket you can see his physical limitations and he has trouble putting enough in the throw to make the required pass(average-ish arm strength?). 

 

If I had to subjectively rank them, I think it would be Young>Richardson=Stroud>Levis... 

 

Thank you. You clearly understand this well.

 

Zierlein said he thought Hooker was poised in the pocket. I wonder if the injury will affect how he will respond to big, speedy defenders coming after him. 

 

I think Aaron Rodgers may have the best pocket presence of all QBs I have seen. Mahomes is good too. 

 

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Thank you. You clearly understand this well.

 

Zierlein said he thought Hooker was poised in the pocket. I wonder if the injury will affect how he will respond to big, speedy defenders coming after him. 

 

I think Aaron Rodgers may have the best pocket presence of all QBs I have seen. Mahomes is good too. 

 

Luck was the best I've ever seen. I've been spoiled watching him pull miracles out of horrible pockets for ages and now even players that are relatively good at it, look pedestrian to me. 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Pocket presence is a bit nebulous ... a bit like the article suggests. For example, Levis will sit there in the pocket and take the hit while delivering the ball... BUT... he would be almost oblivious to pressure sometimes, he would get absolutely obliterated by a passrusher he had no idea was coming - so... is he staying in the pocket delivering the ball because he doesn't fear getting hit or because he just doesn't see and feel pressure at all. For example, he has the highest pressure to sack ratio from this whole draft class. 

as for Will Levis, he believes in his arm strength to make any throw until the last second of getting sacked so he seems to hold on to the ball very long. I didn't know his pressure to sack ratio when I watched his games, but my theory seems to make sense more. 

 

The problem for him is that as he trusts his arm well, he more often stands like a statue looking for his receivers to get open, and doesn't use his athleticism as much you'd like to escape from pressure or just move around the pocket and maneuver the space around him while processing the field or anticipating a route. If there's a space created by design or out of structure early after the snap, he's very good at taking off for a run and find a big gain where his athleticism shines. 

 

When the pocket collapses by defensive pressure suddenly, which would happen more often in the NFL as the Athletic article suggests, Levis doesn't utilize his athleticism well enough to bargain more time for him and his receivers. He also tries to throw a lot when the defensive linemen closes on him even in full view in front of his eyes, he tries to stand still more often than I'd like to try to throw as he knows he could complete the throw if he gets a small window. The problem in that is NFL defensive linemen usually have closer-to-elite short area quickness, close-in burst and agility than what he's faced in the college, so not maneuvering the pocket enough will set him up for lot of negative plays. In addition, as you said, he also has many plays where he is not aware of defensive lineman nearby closing in on him as he focuses on his reads, so a lot of opportunities for defenses to pressure, hurry, hit and sack him behind the LOS. 

 

Thus, his pocket presence and his habits in the pocket are huge concern for me even in his college tape. Forget about NFL projection, he'll have to recalibrate his mechanics in the pocket to succeed in the NFL, IMHO. 

[RollerColt]

8 hours ago, stitches said:

Luck was the best I've ever seen. I've been spoiled watching him pull miracles out of horrible pockets for ages and now even players that are relatively good at it, look pedestrian to me. 

It was as if his whole body was covered in olive oil or something. We’d see the pocket collapse, a bunch of bodies all over him, and then a split second later either he or the ball would come flying out of the pile. It was masterful sometimes how he would just shuffle to the left or right.
 

It was such a simple move but he would time it perfectly so the defender would just float past him. And if that wasn’t enough, pressure seemed to do nothing to him and regardless where he was at with his position, the pass would be accurate as all get. That touchdown pass against the Bengals in the playoffs gets me every time… He was friggin’ falling forwards and still delivered the ball exactly where it needed to be. 

[Superman]

11 hours ago, stitches said:

Pocket presence is a bit nebulous ... a bit like the article suggests. For example, Levis will sit there in the pocket and take the hit while delivering the ball... BUT... he would be almost oblivious to pressure sometimes, he would get absolutely obliterated by a passrusher he had no idea was coming - so... is he staying in the pocket delivering the ball because he doesn't fear getting hit or because he just doesn't see and feel pressure at all. For example, he has the highest pressure to sack ratio from this whole draft class. 

 

Do you have the time to pressure or time to throw stats for any of these guys?

[stitches]

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Do you have the time to pressure or time to throw stats for any of these guys?

I don't. Would be nice to see that. I think for Stroud it was about 3 seconds time to throw. Just found a site with various interesting stats on SEC QBs. But they don't have the time to throw:

 

https://secstatcat.com/team/kentucky/passer-stats (seems to be asking for registration and monthly payment after the first few pages viewed)

 

Some interesting stats:

 

- even though his accuracy numbers are worse than Levis', Richardson has lower turnover worthy %  and higher explosive play %.

- again surprising - Levis has higher interceptible% (7.45 vs 6.42)

- Richardson has more than twice the throwaways that Levis has. 

- RIchardson has 26% uncatchable balls,  Levis about 19. 

- Sack % - 4.6% Richardson, 12.4 Levis
- There is some stat TIME/QB no idea what it means... Richardson is at 2.65, Levis at 2.1

- Screen % 3.36 R, 13.83 L
- Richardson has higher drop %(11.9 vs 10.3)

- their pressure % is about the same 33 vs 32%

- ADOT  - 11.34(R) vs 8.74(L)

- Richardson ran both more play action and RPO than Levis 

 

 

 

[husker61]

Reading the defenses is more important and tough to do in college. Knowing where the blitz is coming from and where to make the throw based on coverage before the receiver actually gets open is the most important thing, very hard to scout, and probably why there are so many high qb draft busts or the occasional low round draft qb that ends up being a starting qb. 

[Gigc]

I believe that the time/QB stat in stitches post refers to the average time it took that QB to throw the ball. And, I've read that Richardson holds on to the ball longer than any of them. That could be not processing fast enough, or receivers not getting open. I wasn't impressed at all with Richardson's receivers.

Couple of thoughts. 

Someone said that Levis seemed to believe in his arm strength so much that he hung on to the ball too long. There was evidence of that this year, but if you look at his 2021 game vids, he was much more decisive. There were a LOT of quick reads and quick throws. So much so that it looked like he never went through read progressions. Just looking at the first option and throwing. This year could have been affected by losing OL and working with a new/different OC, who, by the way, was fired at the end of the season.

Regarding Richardson, two thoughts. One, he's really adept at feeling pressure in the pocket and moving subtly to create space. He rarely just takes off, always, like Bryce, looking to throw first. Two, the NFL using run-pass-option offenses has already made it easier for QBs who can run acclimate to the pros --- just look at Jalen Hurts and his success this year. They didn't question his athleticism, they did question his decision making and sometimes accuracy. But they simplified the offense and he's played really well...