Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[Jared Cisneros]

Just now, danlhart87 said:

What prospects do yall like 2nd round 

Darnell Wright

Cedric Tillman

Jahmar Gibbs

Noah Sewell (if he falls)

Drew Sanders

Andrew Vorhees

Dawand Jones

Garrett Williams

 

Just to name a few

[Jared Cisneros]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

He outsmarted everyone. He was like I will tank without even showing my hand and make it look good 

I told everyone he was hiring Saturday to tank.

 

No one believed me because I have a minority opinion. Like usual.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Darnell Wright

Cedric Tillman

Jahmar Gibbs

Noah Sewell (if he falls)

Drew Sanders

Andrew Vorhees

Dawand Jones

Garrett Williams

 

Just to name a few

Is Andrew Vorhees related to Jason Vorhees, if so he is the man 

[Stephen]

16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I hope we either draft Stroud or Young, at 35 I am not sure what route I would go. Rainman may pan out at LT? We need another deep threat at WR. Pittman is a #1 but not a great deep threat, he is the man on slants and the short passing game. Pierce and Campbell are more like #3's to me (Campbell in the slot) = good but not great. We need someone that puts the fear into other teams that can go deep like 50 yards deep.

Pierce will end up better than pittman. We do need another wr that is a legit number 1 but doubt we can get both in same draft

[danlhart87]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Darnell Wright

Cedric Tillman

Jahmar Gibbs

Noah Sewell (if he falls)

Drew Sanders

Andrew Vorhees

Dawand Jones

Garrett Williams

 

Just to name a few

Is Andrew related to

 

Haha no way @2006Coltsbestever

[LJpalmbeacher2]

There are handful of teams within striking range that could easily satisfy the bears to trade down. 

If the colts want one of the top 2 qbs  they probably will need to trade up with the bears. 

[ClaytonColt]

9 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

The Cowboys line was built through a lot of high draft picks.  
 

Either way, the first pick is going to be a QB.  Second rounder id expect the best player available that fills a need, rather that’s a lineman, edge rusher, Corner, WR, or linebacker.  

And were they successful at that time?

[LJpalmbeacher2]

8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Darnell Wright

Cedric Tillman

Jahmar Gibbs

Noah Sewell (if he falls)

Drew Sanders

Andrew Vorhees

Dawand Jones

Garrett Williams

 

Just to name a few

Look at you.....

......Your already in the second round!!!

I haven't even got past Young and Stroud yet. Lol

[Jared Cisneros]

2 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

There are handful of teams within striking range that could easily satisfy the bears to trade down. 

If the colts want one of the top 2 qbs  they probably will need to trade up with the bears. 

This is a rare time that I disagree with you. I just think the cost to move up to no1 will be too expensive for most teams. Texans have no reason to move up, neither do the Cards. We can afford it, but even for us, it's probably an extra 1st rounder. Don't see Seattle replacing Geno after making the playoffs with him. 

 

Lions are a possibility, they have picks 6 and 18. That may get it done with a 2024 2nd or 3rd included. Raiders are tricky because Carr can't really be included in a trade up with the Bears. They are a better match for the Colts IMO to move up 3 spots. The Panthers have extra ammo from trading McCaffrey. They are a threat if they unload a ton of extra picks to move up to 3.

 

IMO, I'd move up to 3 if you are scared that a team will move ahead of you 1 spot to snipe who is leftover of Young and Stroud at 4.

2 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Look at you.....

......Your already in the second round!!!

I haven't even got past Young and Stroud yet. Lol

I've been doing mock drafts on mockdraftdatabase. It's the only simulator website that has trades without paying money.

[stitches]

Darius Leonard + #4 for #1.

 

Or Deforest Buckner + #4 for #1.

 

The fact that Eberflus is their HC and Poles is their GM(has connections to Ballard) make such negotiations much more likely. 

[ClaytonColt]

13 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Generally, it's difficult to hit on O-Lineman picks outside the first 2-3 rounds. It can happen, but the success rate is low, much more so than other positions. It's like the reverse RB.

So why aren't the best teams in the NFL, teams like 49ers, Bills and the Bengals built just with top draft picks? Why has it always been this way?

 

Why are they always built with a couple of high picks and then a combination of low round picks or mid level (under $10m per year) free agents?

 

It's seems like more of a ideological things that Colts fans are obsessed with but it's not how winning teams seem to allocate their resources.

[Jared Cisneros]

Just now, ClaytonColt said:

So why aren't the best teams in the NFL, teams like 49ers, Bills and the Bengals built just with top draft picks? Why has it always been this way?

 

Why are they always built with a couple of high picks and then a combination of low round picks or mid level (under $10m per year) free agents?

 

It's seems like more of a ideological things that Colts fans are obsessed with but it's not how winning teams seem to allocate their resources.

There are 7 rounds in a mock. 1 round on day 1, 2 rounds on day 2, and 4 rounds on day 3. More than half of players drafted are on day 3, and even more players are UDFAs. That's just numbers. That doesn't change the fact that some positions are harder to hit on later in the draft and some are easier. There are patterns for a reason. O-Lineman, QB, and EDGE rushers are generally early round picks that hit. Other positions such as RBs, WRs, TEs, and LBers hit in later rounds more often.

 

FA should almost always be built with depth-type guys that create competition for draft picks with the occasional starter to fill a need. Me being a Colts fan has nothing to do with how I view roster construction.

 

The reason this team has failed is because we don't have a young franchise QB yet, we have avoided quality WRs, and most of the premium positions early in the draft besides O-Line.

[GoColts8818]

15 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

And were they successful at that time?

Yes, it was considered the best line in football.  
 

Smith, Fredrick, and Martin were all first rounders (three in four years) and all made pro bowls.  Collins was also a first round talent that didn’t go that high due to off the field issues.  The only one of them that wasn’t seen as a first round talent when drafted was Doug Free a fourth round pick.

[ClaytonColt]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

There are 7 rounds in a mock. 1 round on day 1, 2 rounds on day 2, and 4 rounds on day 3. More than half of players drafted are on day 3, and even more players are UDFAs. That's just numbers. That doesn't change the fact that some positions are harder to hit on later in the draft and some are easier. There are patterns for a reason. O-Lineman, QB, and EDGE rushers are generally early round picks that hit. Other positions such as RBs, WRs, TEs, and LBers hit in later rounds more often.

 

FA should almost always be built with depth-type guys that create competition for draft picks with the occasional starter to fill a need. Me being a Colts fan has nothing to do with how I view roster construction.

 

The reason this team has failed is because we don't have a young franchise QB yet, we have avoided quality WRs, and most of the premium positions early in the draft besides O-Line.

I know how many rounds are in a draft!!

 

I agree there are patterns, that's my exact point. But the patterns suggest that you don't need to fill your line with picks from the 1st 3 rounds to be successful, yet we continually act like we must.

 

I agree with your last paragraph but the way to fix that is not to keep doubling down on a strategy that daunt worked.

[ClaytonColt]

3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yes, it was considered the best line in football.  
 

Smith, Fredrick, and Martin were all first rounders (three in four years) and all made pro bowls.  Collins was also a first round talent that didn’t go that high due to off the field issues.  The only one of them that wasn’t seen as a first round talent when drafted was Doug Free a fourth round pick.

So even they didn't fill their line with top 3 round picks? Isn't that my point?

 

What did they win though if you're saying they were successful? 

[Jared Cisneros]

Just now, ClaytonColt said:

I know how many rounds are in a draft!!

 

I agree there are patterns, that's my exact point. But the patterns suggest that you don't need to fill your line with picks from the 1st 3 rounds to be successful, yet we continually act like we must.

 

I agree with your last paragraph but the way to fix that is not to keep doubling down on a strategy that daunt worked.

Yep. We need to hit on premium positions. Ballard hit on a bunch of secondary positions with solid players. That has made us a mediocre team. Great teams have a top QB, WR, O-Line, EDGE and shutdown CB. That can carry the team.

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

So even they didn't fill their line with top 3 round picks? Isn't that my point?

 

What did they win though if you're saying they were successful? 

Three out of five and a fourth that would have been had it not been for off the field issues is pretty much doing just that.

 

I don’t think anyone honestly expects all five starters to be first three round guys.  I think most are fine with Raimann coming back who is a fourth rounder.  I’ve seen several call for Pinter to start at Center and replace Kelly who was a fifth rounder.  If that happens you are only talking about Nelson and Smith taken in the first three rounds and looking for a right guard some place.  

[GoColts8818]

43 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Darnell Wright

Cedric Tillman

Jahmar Gibbs

Noah Sewell (if he falls)

Drew Sanders

Andrew Vorhees

Dawand Jones

Garrett Williams

 

Just to name a few

If his Injury makes him slip this far I’d look at Nolan Smith as well.  You can never have enough pass rusher and there is no promise the Colts will keep Yannick and may need to replace him.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is a rare time that I disagree with you. I just think the cost to move up to no1 will be too expensive for most teams. Texans have no reason to move up, neither do the Cards. We can afford it, but even for us, it's probably an extra 1st rounder. Don't see Seattle replacing Geno after making the playoffs with him. 

 

Lions are a possibility, they have picks 6 and 18. That may get it done with a 2024 2nd or 3rd included. Raiders are tricky because Carr can't really be included in a trade up with the Bears. They are a better match for the Colts IMO to move up 3 spots. The Panthers have extra ammo from trading McCaffrey. They are a threat if they unload a ton of extra picks to move up to 3.

 

IMO, I'd move up to 3 if you are scared that a team will move ahead of you 1 spot to snipe who is leftover of Young and Stroud at 4.

I've been doing mock drafts on mockdraftdatabase. It's the only simulator website that has trades without paying money.

 

I copied this from page 1:

 

Seahawks (via DEN) 6)

Lions (via LAR) 7)

Raiders 8)

Falcons 9)

Panthers 10)

Eagles (via NO) 11)

Titans 12)

Texans (via CLE) 13)

Jets 14)

Patriots

 

I think seahawks, raiders,falcons,panthers, are QB needy and all in the top 10. How expensive will it be to make a deal with the bears who are probably satisfied with Fields and need picks to build up? 

I don't really know the cost of trading up by the so called book off hand but I think if one of those teams really like or love a QB they aren't that far back to make it happen. 

 

It's extremely early in the process and a lot of things can influence teams mindset and mine lol.

I hope your right and we'll be able to get our guy without spending needed resources, assuming our decision makers want one of the top QB prospects. 

 

 

[ClaytonColt]

3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Three out of five and a fourth that would have been had it not been for off the field issues is pretty much doing just that.

 

I don’t think anyone honestly expects all five starters to be first three round guys.  I think most are fine with Raimann coming back who is a fourth rounder.  I’ve seen several call for Pinter to start at Center and replace Kelly who was a fifth rounder.  If that happens you are only talking about Nelson and Smith taken in the first three rounds and looking for a right guard some place.  

Raimann was a 3rd.

 

The post I responded to was saying we should take another lineman at the top of the 2nd. If Kelly wasn't cut wouldn't that be saying that we need a line built exclusively through top 3 round draft picks?

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

Raimann was a 3rd.

 

The post I responded to was saying we should take another lineman at the top of the 2nd. If Kelly wasn't cut wouldn't that be saying that we need a line built exclusively through top 3 round draft picks?

Most people do want Kelly cut though which is probably factoring into them calling for taking a linemen in the high second.  

[CR91]

47 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I told everyone he was hiring Saturday to tank.

 

No one believed me because I have a minority opinion. Like usual.

 

I was on that boat with you. Jvan went hard on me after the raiders game. Not a peep since.

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Most people do want Kelly cut though which is probably factoring into them calling for taking a linemen in the high second.  

 

Saves about 5 mil to cut him. 

[stitches]

5 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Agreed. I don't see the Bears or Cards taking a QB, and I don't see anyone besides us possibly trading up to 1. We should have 2nd choice at the QBs (and it might be our 1st choice).

You never know with QBs. There always might be a team that loves one of the guys and wants to guarantee getting him. The Panthers can trade up for example. Seahawks, Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Jets... there are a ton of teams with unsettled QB spot. You never know what their FO will cook up. 

[danlhart87]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

You never know with QBs. There always might be a team that loves one of the guys and wants to guarantee getting him. The Panthers can trade up for example. Seahawks, Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Jets... there are a ton of teams with unsettled QB spot. You never know what their FO will cook up. 

[GoColts8818]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

You never know with QBs. There always might be a team that loves one of the guys and wants to guarantee getting him. The Panthers can trade up for example. Seahawks, Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Jets... there are a ton of teams with unsettled QB spot. You never know what their FO will cook up. 

The other side of this is that the Bears at least probably want one of the two defensive studs in this draft and while they are probably fine with moving back they are probably only fine moving back enough that guarantees getting them one of those studs.  To do that they will probably need to stay in the top five if not the top four.

[NewColtsFan]

Assuming Pinter is tried at Center if the Colts trade or cut Kelly, and I think the Colts would either sign a FA guard or draft one in the 3rd round is my guess,  roughly pick 80-85-ish.

 

That would give the Colts an OL looking like this…..

 

LT: Raimann: R3, pk 77.

LG: Nelson:  R1,  pk 6

C:   Pinter:    R5,  pk 149

RG:  FA or R3,  ok 80-85-ish

RT:  Smith:  R2,  pk: 37

 

Hopefully Raimann continues to grow and improve,  Nelson and Smith return to form, Pinter plays MUCH better at Center than he did at RG and the new RG is solid.  Doesn’t have to be great. 
 

I’d be happy if the OL is ranked top-12 and the sacks are cut in half from 60 down to 30.  
 

 

[stitches]

39 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Saves about 5 mil to cut him. 

Re: Kelly  - He can be a throw in for the Bears if they want him. His contract is not prohibitive if they want to try to reenergize him. IMO we won't cut him for 5M unless Ballard is gone. Then anything is possible... but still doubt it. 

[Myles]

I'm torn on trading up with the Bears.  We would give up allot of draft capital to guy the guy we want.  What worries me is that I don't feel that this is a great QB group to choose from.   Not one of them gets me overly excited. 

[JColts72]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm torn on trading up with the Bears.  We would give up allot of draft capital to guy the guy we want.  What worries me is that I don't feel that this is a great QB group to choose from.   Not one of them gets me overly excited. 

Not wanting next year to get one. Any of them is better then what we have. Who u want at 4 then?

 

[ThorstenDenmark]

With the 4th overall pick the Indianapolis Colts select... wait we have a trade, the Las Vegas Raiders have traded their 7th pick, and next years 1st round pick and QB Derek Carr to the Indianapolis colts. 

 

New Colts HC Jon Gruden is beyond happy with Chris Ballards trade and Jim Irsay is smiling all over his face. 

What a great day to be a colts fan. 

[indyagent17]

Interesting that picking number four could be the third quarterback taken in the draft. If somebody trades with Chicago, they are taking a quarterback, Houston is definitely taking a quarterback. Arizona is not in the most likely pick defense so that Colts can wind up with Levis. It’s amazing that in one of the worst quarterback draft years in recent history three quarterbacks could be gone in the first four pics. I know it’s not likely but it’s a possibility. And I really want Stroud 

[ThorstenDenmark]

1 minute ago, indyagent17 said:

Interesting that picking number four could be the third quarterback taken in the draft. If somebody trades with Chicago, they are taking a quarterback, Houston is definitely taking a quarterback. Arizona is not in the most likely pick defense so that Colts can wind up with Levis. It’s amazing that in one of the worst quarterback draft years in recent history three quarterbacks could be gone in the first four pics. I know it’s not likely but it’s a possibility. And I really want Stroud 

I want Arch Manning, so dont care if we suck till he enters the draft ;) 

[tfunky14]

5 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Yep. We need to hit on premium positions. Ballard hit on a bunch of secondary positions with solid players. That has made us a mediocre team. Great teams have a top QB, WR, O-Line, EDGE and shutdown CB. That can carry the team.

We have 3 or those 5. 

Colts need to draft a QB, fix the OL. 

[tfunky14]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Assuming Pinter is tried at Center if the Colts trade or cut Kelly, and I think the Colts would either sign a FA guard or draft one in the 3rd round is my guess,  roughly pick 80-85-ish.

 

That would give the Colts an OL looking like this…..

 

LT: Raimann: R3, pk 77.

LG: Nelson:  R1,  pk 6

C:   Pinter:    R5,  pk 149

RG:  FA or R3,  ok 80-85-ish

RT:  Smith:  R2,  pk: 37

 

Hopefully Raimann continues to grow and improve,  Nelson and Smith return to form, Pinter plays MUCH better at Center than he did at RG and the new RG is solid.  Doesn’t have to be great. 
 

I’d be happy if the OL is ranked top-12 and the sacks are cut in half from 60 down to 30.  
 

 

Agree. 

[crazycolt1]

23 minutes ago, ThorstenDenmark said:

I want Arch Manning, so dont care if we suck till he enters the draft ;) 

Sorry, I don't want the Colts to have 3 years of losing. That mindset is for losers. 

[crazycolt1]

29 minutes ago, ThorstenDenmark said:

With the 4th overall pick the Indianapolis Colts select... wait we have a trade, the Las Vegas Raiders have traded their 7th pick, and next years 1st round pick and QB Derek Carr to the Indianapolis colts. 

 

New Colts HC Jon Gruden is beyond happy with Chris Ballards trade and Jim Irsay is smiling all over his face. 

What a great day to be a colts fan. 

Gruden? Carr? You can wake up from your dream now. 

[ClaytonColt]

9 minutes ago, tfunky14 said:

We have 3 or those 5. 

Colts need to draft a QB, fix the OL. 

You really think we've got shut down corners or explosive wide receivers?

 

Both of those groups are further away from what good teams look like talent wise than the OL.

[ThorstenDenmark]

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Sorry, I don't want the Colts to have 3 years of losing. That mindset is for losers. 

Well, if we want to win a super bowl again, Arch Manning is our best hope.

 

I know we wont get him, as we draft a decent QB in this years draft and become a mediocre team.... but thee team that land arch manning will dominate the NFL in the next 10-12 years when he enters the league.  

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Gruden? Carr? You can wake up from your dream now. 

neightmare... not a dream but nightmare

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, ThorstenDenmark said:

Well, if we want to win a super bowl again, Arch Manning is our best hope.

 

I know we wont get him, as we draft a decent QB in this years draft and become a mediocre team.... but thee team that land arch manning will dominate the NFL in the next 10-12 years when he enters the league.  

neightmare... not a dream but nightmare

I do agree that young Manning might become a great QB but that all depends on where he goes. 

[lollygagger8]

As happy I was that the Colts lost and moved up in the draft, I'm not certain I see Ballard actually moving up to secure the QB position. I think he's too stubborn ("loves those picks") to move up. I think if Colts actually do move up, it will be Irsay pulling that string. 

 

 

I do think the Bears will trade their pick to a QB needy team, so if Colts did wait it out, Stroud and Young will be gone and Levis will be the Colts choice.