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Tankathon Weekly Race To The Bottom


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Since all we're really looking at is where we'll place in next year's draft, might as well do a weekly update on the Tankathon draft order.

 

As of 11/29

1 - HOU (1-9-1) next 3 opp: vs CLE (4-7), at DAL (8-3), vs KC (9-2)

2 - CHI (3-9) next 3 opp: vs GB (4-8), bye, vs PHI (10-1)

3 - LAR (3-8) pick to DET next 3 opp: vs SEA (6-5), vs LV (4-7), at GB (4-8)

4 - DEN (3-8) pick to SEA next 3 opp: at BAL (7-4), vs KC (9-2), vs AZ (4-8)

5 - CAR (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, at SEA (6-5), vs PIT (4-7)

6 - NO (4-8) pick to PHI next 3 opp: at TB (5-6), bye, vs ATL (5-7)

7 - AZ (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, vs NE (6-5), at DEN (3-8)

8 - GB (4-8) next 3 opp: at CHI (3-9), bye, vs LAR (3-8)

9 - LV (4-7) next 3 opp: vs LAC (6-5), at LAR (3-8), vs NE (6-5)

10 - CLE (4-7) pick to HOU next 3 opp: at HOU (1-9-1), at CIN (7-4), vs BAL (7-4)

11 - JAX (4-7) next 3 opp: at DET (4-7), at TEN (7-4), vs DAL (8-3)

12 - PIT (4-7) next 3 opp: at ATL (5-7), vs BAL (7-4), at CAR (4-8)

13 - DET (4-7) next 3 opp: vs JAX (4-7), vs MIN (9-2), at NYJ (7-4)

14 - IND (4-7-1) next 3 opp: at DAL (8-3), bye, at MIN (9-2)

15 - ATL (5-7) next 3 opp: vs PIT (4-7), bye, at NO (4-8)

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10 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Since all we're really looking at is where we'll place in next year's draft, might as well do a weekly update on the Tankathon draft order.

 

As of 11/29

1 - HOU (1-9-1) next 3 opp: vs CLE (4-7), at DAL (8-3), vs KC (9-2)

2 - CHI (3-9) next 3 opp: vs GB (4-8), bye, vs PHI (10-1)

3 - LAR (3-8) pick to DET next 3 opp: vs SEA (6-5), vs LV (4-7), at GB (4-8)

4 - DEN (3-8) pick to SEA next 3 opp: at BAL (7-4), vs KC (9-2), vs AZ (4-8)

5 - CAR (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, at SEA (6-5), vs PIT (4-7)

6 - NO (4-8) pick to PHI next 3 opp: at TB (5-6), bye, vs ATL (5-7)

7 - AZ (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, vs NE (6-5), at DEN (3-8)

8 - GB (4-8) next 3 opp: at CHI (3-9), bye, vs LAR (3-8)

9 - LV (4-7) next 3 opp: vs LAC (6-5), at LAR (3-8), vs NE (6-5)

10 - CLE (4-7) pick to HOU next 3 opp: at HOU (1-9-1), at CIN (7-4), vs BAL (7-4)

11 - JAX (4-7) next 3 opp: at DET (4-7), at TEN (7-4), vs DAL (8-3)

12 - PIT (4-7) next 3 opp: at ATL (5-7), vs BAL (7-4), at CAR (4-8)

13 - DET (4-7) next 3 opp: vs JAX (4-7), vs MIN (9-2), at NYJ (7-4)

14 - IND (4-7-1) next 3 opp: at DAL (8-3), bye, at MIN (9-2)

15 - ATL (5-7) next 3 opp: vs PIT (4-7), bye, at NO (4-8)

 

Good work...... Much appreciated.

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Nice that someone actually put this together. We’ve been talking a lot about how the Colts getting a higher draft pick isn’t just about them losing out, but these other teams need to win a couple games.

 

I have us getting to 5 wins because we can beat the Texans in the season finale, but we’ll lose everything else.

 

I think we can get as high as Greenbay’s pick. Things are starting to click with their WR’s and Rodgers, so they can rattle off another 3 wins I think.

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9 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Nice that someone actually put this together. We’ve been talking a lot about how the Colts getting a higher draft pick isn’t just about them losing out, but these other teams need to win a couple games.

 

I have us getting to 5 wins because we can beat the Texans in the season finale, but we’ll lose everything else.

 

I think we can get as high as Greenbay’s pick. Things are starting to click with their WR’s and Rodgers, so they can rattle off another 3 wins I think.

Last week, my projection included our winning vs the Steelers and the Texans, putting us in 10th place.  After the Steelers loss, I'm guessing about 6th.  We'll see!

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On 11/29/2022 at 6:27 PM, John Hammonds said:

Since all we're really looking at is where we'll place in next year's draft, might as well do a weekly update on the Tankathon draft order.

 

As of 11/29

1 - HOU (1-9-1) next 3 opp: vs CLE (4-7), at DAL (8-3), vs KC (9-2)

2 - CHI (3-9) next 3 opp: vs GB (4-8), bye, vs PHI (10-1)

3 - LAR (3-8) pick to DET next 3 opp: vs SEA (6-5), vs LV (4-7), at GB (4-8)

4 - DEN (3-8) pick to SEA next 3 opp: at BAL (7-4), vs KC (9-2), vs AZ (4-8)

5 - CAR (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, at SEA (6-5), vs PIT (4-7)

6 - NO (4-8) pick to PHI next 3 opp: at TB (5-6), bye, vs ATL (5-7)

7 - AZ (4-8) next 3 opp: bye, vs NE (6-5), at DEN (3-8)

8 - GB (4-8) next 3 opp: at CHI (3-9), bye, vs LAR (3-8)

9 - LV (4-7) next 3 opp: vs LAC (6-5), at LAR (3-8), vs NE (6-5)

10 - CLE (4-7) pick to HOU next 3 opp: at HOU (1-9-1), at CIN (7-4), vs BAL (7-4)

11 - JAX (4-7) next 3 opp: at DET (4-7), at TEN (7-4), vs DAL (8-3)

12 - PIT (4-7) next 3 opp: at ATL (5-7), vs BAL (7-4), at CAR (4-8)

13 - DET (4-7) next 3 opp: vs JAX (4-7), vs MIN (9-2), at NYJ (7-4)

14 - IND (4-7-1) next 3 opp: at DAL (8-3), bye, at MIN (9-2)

15 - ATL (5-7) next 3 opp: vs PIT (4-7), bye, at NO (4-8)

 

Excellent summary!!!

 

Falcons are also in the hunt for the division title because of a lousy division. Rams and Bears will continue losing if Justin Fields and Stafford remain hurt. Panthers and Broncos can't win if they tried.

 

The teams that can generate enough wins would be AZ, GB, LV (so McDaniels can save his behind), CLE, DET, and PIT. I see us settling in the No.8-No.10 range when it is all said and done. That assumes we win only 1 more vs the Texans.

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Posted this in the main as well:

 

If the Colts lose tomorrow and the following results occur, we’ll move from 14 to 9.  These are all realistic:

 

Steelers over falcons

Packers over bears

Browns over Texans

Raiders over Chargers


If somehow the saints beat the bucs we move to 8.  5-11-1 should get us top 5.

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1 hour ago, Patrick Miller said:

So we are at 9 right now?

Yes 9. Thanks not only to the loss but because teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Vegas are finally winning. If Arizona, Carolina, and the Saints can win we can move up even more. The Rams (who traded their pick to Detroit) aren’t winning any more because Stafford is on IR so no use in betting on jumping them. IDK if the Bears will win anymore either since they lost Mooney. If we can keep losing, we can get probably get a top 5 pick, but top 3 is out of the question IMO.

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As of 12/7

1 - HOU (10-1-1) next 3 opp at DAL (9-3), vs KC (9-3) at TEN (7-5)

2 - CHI (3-10) next 3 opp BYE, vs PHI (11-1), vs BUF (9-3)

3 - DEN (3-9) pick to SEA next 3 opp vs KC (9-3), vs AZ (4-8), at LAR (3-9)

4 - LAR (3-9) pick to DET next 3 opp vs LV (5-7), at GB (5-8), vs DEN (5-7)

5 - NO (4-9) pick to PHI next 3 opp BYE, vs ATL (5-8), at CLE (5-7)

6 - CAR (4-8) next 3 opp at SEA (7-5), vs PIT (5-7), vs DET (5-7)

7 - JAX (4-8) next 3 opp at TEN (7-5), vs DAL (9-3), at NYJ (7-5)

8 - AZ (4-8) next 3 opp vs NE (6-6), at DEN (5-7), vs TB (6-6)

9 - IND (4-8-1) next 3 opp BYE, at MIN (10-2), vs LAC (6-6)

10 - ATL (5-8) next 3 opp BYE, at NO (4-9), at BAL (8-4)

11 - GB (5-8) next 3 opp BYE, vs LAR (3-9), at MIA (8-4)

12 - LV (5-7) next 3 opp at LAR (3-9), vs NE (6-6), at PIT (5-7)

13 - CLE (5-7) pick to HOU next 3 opp at CIN (8-4), vs BAL (8-4), vs NO (4-9)

14 - PIT (5-7) next 3 opp vs BAL (8-4), at CAR (4-8), vs LV (5-7)

15 - DET (5-7) next 3 opp vs MIN (10-2), at NYJ (7-5), at CAR (4-8)

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13 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

As of 12/7

1 - HOU (10-1-1) next 3 opp at DAL (9-3), vs KC (9-3) at TEN (7-5)

2 - CHI (3-10) next 3 opp BYE, vs PHI (11-1), vs BUF (9-3)

3 - DEN (3-9) pick to SEA next 3 opp vs KC (9-3), vs AZ (4-8), at LAR (3-9)

4 - LAR (3-9) pick to DET next 3 opp vs LV (5-7), at GB (5-8), vs DEN (5-7)

5 - NO (4-9) pick to PHI next 3 opp BYE, vs ATL (5-8), at CLE (5-7)

6 - CAR (4-8) next 3 opp at SEA (7-5), vs PIT (5-7), vs DET (5-7)

7 - JAX (4-8) next 3 opp at TEN (7-5), vs DAL (9-3), at NYJ (7-5)

8 - AZ (4-8) next 3 opp vs NE (6-6), at DEN (5-7), vs TB (6-6)

9 - IND (4-8-1) next 3 opp BYE, at MIN (10-2), vs LAC (6-6)

10 - ATL (5-8) next 3 opp BYE, at NO (4-9), at BAL (8-4)

11 - GB (5-8) next 3 opp BYE, vs LAR (3-9), at MIA (8-4)

12 - LV (5-7) next 3 opp at LAR (3-9), vs NE (6-6), at PIT (5-7)

13 - CLE (5-7) pick to HOU next 3 opp at CIN (8-4), vs BAL (8-4), vs NO (4-9)

14 - PIT (5-7) next 3 opp vs BAL (8-4), at CAR (4-8), vs LV (5-7)

15 - DET (5-7) next 3 opp vs MIN (10-2), at NYJ (7-5), at CAR (4-8)

We could end up in the top 5. We are moving on up 200.gif

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49 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

ood thing about this - Chicago, Denver, Jacks, and Arizona won't take a QB. Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are under huge contracts, they are stuck. For Jacks, it is too early to give up on Trevor. Chicago has Fields.

 

Id consider take one if i was Denver, they have a first round pick and two thirds.  They will be behind us though 

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7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Good thing about this - Chicago, Denver, Jacks, and Arizona won't take a QB. Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are under huge contracts, they are stuck. For Jacks, it is too early to give up on Trevor. Chicago has Fields.

Yup. The Lions could go QB though but Goff is under contract. Really the Panthers and Texans are the guaranteed QB teams. Hopefully we lose 3/4 of our remaining games and a few of the teams picking in front of us can win 2+ games. We should be good if we can get a top 6 pick.

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16 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yup. The Lions could go QB though but Goff is under contract. Really the Panthers and Texans are the guaranteed QB teams. Hopefully we lose 3/4 of our remaining games and a few of the teams picking in front of us can win 2+ games. We should be good if we can get a top 6 pick.


If we get a top 6 pick maybe a chance we can move up to CHI spot. That would be epic but also means no first rounder for the next few years. 
 

who would you hope is at 2? 

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29 minutes ago, Indianapolis-Colts-Fan said:


If we get a top 6 pick maybe a chance we can move up to CHI spot. That would be epic but also means no first rounder for the next few years. 
 

who would you hope is at 2? 

I would be ok with Young or Stroud if we pick 1 or 2, I think both have a chance to be good, maybe great. It is all a guess/crapshoot though, I could be wrong and Levis may be king of the class high roller laughing GIF - Max is still my sleeper - love his accuracy on the run, his 4.5 speed, his heart, and he wins. He is a legit 6'2 as well so he isn't small.

 

Being a GM would be fun but then again a pain in the butt because if you guess wrong, your team is screwed for years. The thing we don't have as fans is, is the interviewing process. That would tell me much more. Main reason why we drafted Peyton over Leaf was that process. Talent wise, Peyton and Leaf was a toss up. The interview of the 2 by Polian and Irsay decided it.

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3 hours ago, Indianapolis-Colts-Fan said:


If we get a top 6 pick maybe a chance we can move up to CHI spot. That would be epic but also means no first rounder for the next few years. 
 

who would you hope is at 2? 

Honestly Levis at this point. There’s some really concerning stuff about Stroud and his stats when u set pressure. Listened to a PFF podcast that said something like he’s got a 36% efficiency rating vs pressure, and hasn’t shown to be able to create outside of structure. Brugler said he’s hearing that’s teams aren’t as high on him.

 

I also don’t think moving up from whatever pick we get in the top 10 to 2 will cost that much. If anything it may cost a couple of players and a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

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3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would be ok with Young or Stroud if we pick 1 or 2, I think both have a chance to be good, maybe great. It is all a guess/crapshoot though, I could be wrong and Levis may be king of the class high roller laughing GIF - Max is still my sleeper - love his accuracy on the run, his 4.5 speed, his heart, and he wins. He is a legit 6'2 as well so he isn't small.

 

Being a GM would be fun but then again a pain in the butt because if you guess wrong, your team is screwed for years. The thing we don't have as fans is, is the interviewing process. That would tell me much more. Main reason why we drafted Peyton over Leaf was that process. Talent wise, Peyton and Leaf was a toss up. The interview of the 2 by Polian and Irsay decided it.


max who? Duggan? 

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32 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Cardinals aren't a threat for our QB position in the draft, so I am not worried about them. It will however make moving up easier, on that front, I agree.

That’s what I was thinking. Make it easier for us to move up and make it harder for other teams to jump us. The Bears are a team that will be a hot bed for trade ups wherever they end up finishing. If the Seahawks (who own the Broncos pick) stay at 2/3, I think they’re staying put and taking Jalen Carter. 
 

But you’re right in the fact that there aren’t a lot of crazy QB needy teams ahead of us. There’s not even that many behind besides the Panthers tbh.

 

I could see it going something like this

 

1. Texans- Bryce Young

2. Seahawks-Jalen Carter

3. Bears- trade down

4. Lions- BPA not at QB

5. eagles- BPA not at QB

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6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s what I was thinking. Make it easier for us to move up and make it harder for other teams to jump us. The Bears are a team that will be a hot bed for trade ups wherever they end up finishing. If the Seahawks (who own the Broncos pick) stay at 2/3, I think they’re staying put and taking Jalen Carter. 
 

But you’re right in the fact that there aren’t a lot of crazy QB needy teams ahead of us. There’s not even that many behind besides the Panthers tbh.

 

I could see it going something like this

 

1. Texans- Bryce Young

2. Seahawks-Jalen Carter

3. Bears- trade down

4. Lions- BPA not at QB

5. eagles- BPA not at QB

Unless the team that trades up into the Bears spot takes a QB.  Imagine if the Bucs traded up into #3 and took Levis.

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53 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Unless the team that trades up into the Bears spot takes a QB.  Imagine if the Bucs traded up into #3 and took Levis.

Which is why if the Colts get to number 6, they should trade up to 3. I hope a team falls in love with Stroud. Maybe my opinion of Stroud will change once I watch more tape, but he’s got some things that concern me. I’m not 100% on Levis because of the lack of college production and maybe some questions about his leadership ability. But I’m more willing to gamble on him than Richardson (raw and inaccurate) or Stroud (not good outside of structure).

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As of 12/13

1 - HOU (1-11-1) next 3 opp vs KC (10-3), at TEN (7-6), vs JAX (5-8)

2 - DEN (3-10) pick to SEA next 3 opp vs AZ (4-9), at LAR (4-9) at KC (10-3)

3 - CHI (3-10) next 3 opp vs PHI (12-1) vs BUF (10-3) at DET (6-7)

4 - LAR (4-9) pick to DET next 3 opp at GB (5-8) vs DEN (3-10) at LAC (7-6)

5 - NO (4-9) pick to PHI next 3 opp vs ATL (5-8) at CLE (5-8) at PHI (12-1)

6 - AZ (4-9) next 3 opp at DEN (3-10) vs TB (6-7) vs ATL (5-8)

7 - IND (4-8-1) next 3 opp at MIN (10-3) vs LAC (7-6) at NYG (7-5-1)

8 - LV (5-8) next 3 opp NE (7-6) at PIT (5-8) vs SF (9-4)

9 - CAR (5-8) next 3 opp vs PIT (5-8) vs DET (6-7) at TB (6-7)

10 - ATL (5-8) next 3 opp at NO (4-9) at BAL (9-4) vs AZ (4-9)

11 - JAX (5-8) next 3 opp vs DAL (10-3) at NYJ (7-6) at HOU (1-11-1)

12 - CLE (5-8) pick to HOU next 3 opp vs BAL (9-4) vs NO (4-9) at WAS (7-5-1)

13 - PIT (5-8) next 3 opp at CAR (5-8) vs LV (5-8) at BAL (9-4)

14 - GB (5-8) next 3 opp vs LAR (4-9) at MIA (8-5) vs MIN (10-3)

 

I'm seeing the same thing everyone else is seeing.

After Houston takes QB Bryce Young #1, and Seattle takes DE Will Anderson at #2, the Bears will probably be shopping the #3 pick, rather than taking a DT that high in the draft.  We may have to trade up into #3 to get the QB we want.  It'll be 2018 all over again, although this time we're the Jets.

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On 12/13/2022 at 3:43 PM, John Hammonds said:

As of 12/13

1 - HOU (1-11-1) next 3 opp vs KC (10-3), at TEN (7-6), vs JAX (5-8)

2 - DEN (3-10) pick to SEA next 3 opp vs AZ (4-9), at LAR (4-9) at KC (10-3)

3 - CHI (3-10) next 3 opp vs PHI (12-1) vs BUF (10-3) at DET (6-7)

4 - LAR (4-9) pick to DET next 3 opp at GB (5-8) vs DEN (3-10) at LAC (7-6)

5 - NO (4-9) pick to PHI next 3 opp vs ATL (5-8) at CLE (5-8) at PHI (12-1)

6 - AZ (4-9) next 3 opp at DEN (3-10) vs TB (6-7) vs ATL (5-8)

7 - IND (4-8-1) next 3 opp at MIN (10-3) vs LAC (7-6) at NYG (7-5-1)

8 - LV (5-8) next 3 opp NE (7-6) at PIT (5-8) vs SF (9-4)

9 - CAR (5-8) next 3 opp vs PIT (5-8) vs DET (6-7) at TB (6-7)

10 - ATL (5-8) next 3 opp at NO (4-9) at BAL (9-4) vs AZ (4-9)

11 - JAX (5-8) next 3 opp vs DAL (10-3) at NYJ (7-6) at HOU (1-11-1)

12 - CLE (5-8) pick to HOU next 3 opp vs BAL (9-4) vs NO (4-9) at WAS (7-5-1)

13 - PIT (5-8) next 3 opp at CAR (5-8) vs LV (5-8) at BAL (9-4)

14 - GB (5-8) next 3 opp vs LAR (4-9) at MIA (8-5) vs MIN (10-3)

 

I'm seeing the same thing everyone else is seeing.

After Houston takes QB Bryce Young #1, and Seattle takes DE Will Anderson at #2, the Bears will probably be shopping the #3 pick, rather than taking a DT that high in the draft.  We may have to trade up into #3 to get the QB we want.  It'll be 2018 all over again, although this time we're the Jets.

There is another possibility (how jedi :)). We don't trade up, we trade slightly down and take Anthony Richardson if we think he'll fall, or Hendon Hooker in the 1st where he would be a reach...

Think this could happen --- particularly since I have a feeling we'll win our last game with Houston, have 5 wins and move back in the draft...

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On 12/16/2022 at 2:27 PM, Gigc said:

There is another possibility (how jedi :)). We don't trade up, we trade slightly down and take Anthony Richardson if we think he'll fall, or Hendon Hooker in the 1st where he would be a reach...

Think this could happen --- particularly since I have a feeling we'll win our last game with Houston, have 5 wins and move back in the draft...

There's a long, long time until the draft.  And we'll have plenty of time to suss out draft strategies.

But right now, I see these choices:

  1. Trade up grab Bryce Young, and have no picks left because we traded them
  2. Stay where we are and draft Will Levis
  3. Stay where we are, watch 3 QB's drafted in front of us, take the best OL or CB we can in the 1st round, and take Duggan in the 2nd round
  4. Trade down, get extra picks, take Hooker late in the 1st round, and cross our fingers he recovers from his injury.
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6 minutes ago, tweezy32 said:

I’m hoping we don’t draft a qb. No qb in this draft is the answer. I say we draft another position and just ride with whoever next year and wait for a better qb. No qb this year will help colts

That’s what a lot of people said about the 2020 draft vs the 2021 draft for QBs but if you go back and look the 2020 draft has out performed the 2021 draft so far.  You don’t get to pick when you need a QB and if you do like the Colts and you finally have a chance to get one and you pass on him hoping for something better to come along odds are you’ll always be hoping for something better to come along.  The best thing for the Colts to do is honestly scout their board and if they feel one of these guys is the best player available when they pick or they really fall in love with one of them like they did Taylor go get him if they have too.  
 

Don’t worry about what people say these guys will be or won’t be and don’t worry about next years draft.  Make the best decision possible for this years draft off their own information.

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As of 12/20

1 - HOU (1-12-1) next 3 opp at TEN (7-7) vs JAX (6-8) at IND (4-9-1)

2 - CHI (3-11) next 3 opp vs BUF (11-3) at DET (7-7) vs MIN (11-3)

3 - DEN (4-10) pick to SEA next 3 opp at LAR (4-10) at KC (11-3) vs LAC (8-6)

4 - LAR (4-10) pick to DET next 3 op vs DEN (4-10) at LAC (8-6) at SEA (7-7)

5 - AZ (4-10) next 3 opp vs TB (6-8) at ATL (5-9) at SF (10-4)

6 - IND (4-9-1) next 3 opp vs LAC (8-6) at NYG (8-5-1) vs HOU (1-12-1)

7 - ATL (5-9) next 3 opp at BAL (9-5) vs AZ (4-10) vs TB (6-8)

8 - CAR (5-9) next 3 opp vs DET (7-7) at TB (6-8) at NO (5-9)

9 - NO (5-9) pick to PHI next 3 opp at CLE (6-8) at PHI (13-1) vs CAR (5-9)

10 - LV (6-8) next 3 opp at PIT (6-8) vs SF (10-4) vs KC (11-3)

11 - JAX (6-8) next 3 opp at NYJ (7-7) at HOU (1-12-1) vs TEN (7-7)

12 - CLE (6-8) pick to HOU next 3 opp vs NO (5-9) at WAS (7-6-1) at PIT (6-8)

13 - PIT (6-8) next 3 opp vs LV (6-8) at BAL (9-5) vs CLE (6-8)

14 - GB (6-8) next 3 opp at MIA (6-8) vs MIN (11-3) vs DET (7-7)

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On 12/20/2022 at 2:14 PM, Gigc said:

With Denver playing the Rams and both with 4 wins --- SOMEBODY is going to end up with 5 wins.

if we just keep losing, we're at 5 for sure. 

I'd like to think we can win our last game against Houston.  But, as we have already demonstrated, there's nothing guaranteed.

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