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Why A Total Rebuild Is Coming - And How We Got In This Situation


BlueShoe

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2 minutes ago, masterlock said:

Smashmouth? I really don't see Ballard's statement that football is won in the trenches as proof that he's trying to build a smash mouth roster, as that's more-or-less a true statement for ANY NFL team. It's hard to win in the NFL if you can't block or rush the passer--i.e., not good in the trenches. Ballard has said he prefers bigger ATHLETIC players, which does not preclude speed. Look at Paris Campbell (4.3-ish), Alec Pierce (4.4), Kyle Granson (more of a receiving TE), Shaq Leonard (not exactly "smash mouth"), Nick Cross (6' 212 lbs), Jonathan Taylor (physical, but not a "bruiser"), Jelani Woods (big, but not known for good blocking), etc. 

 

Agreed. Saying we need to be good up front is like saying we need to stay hydrated. It's a fundamental fact, and has little bearing on the team's preferred strategy.

 

I also don't get why fullback would suddenly be on the radar. We haven't used a fullback since Ballard has been here.

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35 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed. Saying we need to be good up front is like saying we need to stay hydrated. It's a fundamental fact, and has little bearing on the team's preferred strategy.

 

I also don't get why fullback would suddenly be on the radar. We haven't used a fullback since Ballard has been here.

 

 Would Leftwich or Bieniemy use a FB? I'm leaning this direction for Irsays HC.

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15 minutes ago, masterlock said:

Smashmouth? I really don't see Ballard's statement that football is won in the trenches as proof that he's trying to build a smash mouth roster, as that's more-or-less a true statement for ANY NFL team. It's hard to win in the NFL if you can't block or rush the passer--i.e., you're not good in the trenches. Ballard has said he prefers bigger ATHLETIC players, which does not preclude speed. Look at Paris Campbell (4.3-ish), Alec Pierce (4.4), Kyle Granson (more of a receiving TE), Shaq Leonard (not exactly "smash mouth"), Nick Cross (6' 212 lbs), Jonathan Taylor (physical, but not a "bruiser"), Jelani Woods (big, but not known for good blocking), etc. 

RTDB…remember run the damn ball?  That’s what being smash mouth football is all about.  That was supposed to be our identity.  Shirts and hats were sold to highlight that philosophy.  Reich mentioned it many times.  We did it with Taylor last year.  The line blocked.  The TE’s blocked.  Opened holes for Taylor.  Boom. We were primarily running between the tackles.  Tried again this year but the line failed.  The TE’s failed to block.  Now we added a blocking TE in Kalinic to be the lead blocker when he is on the field.   Smash mouth is meant to be an offensive adjective.  Impose your will with the run game and wear the defense down which opens up the passing game.  Fixing the line and adding a true fullback would go a long way in elevating our run game.  No more Hines, a lightweight, up the middle.  That’s what some of us are seeing as a missing component to being a real smash mouth football team.  A big imposing line with good blocking TE’s and a big fullback imposing their will.  Taylor the big horse.

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10 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Would Leftwich or Bieniemy use a FB? I'm leaning this direction for Irsays HC.

 

Yikes. I'm not that strong on either of them.

 

To answer your question, I doubt it. The Chiefs have a FB they use sparingly, probably only in short yardage, not as a regular part of their offense. The Bucs don't have a FB at all.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Yikes. I'm not that strong on either of them.

 

To answer your question, I doubt it. The Chiefs have a FB they use sparingly, probably only in short yardage, not as a regular part of their offense. The Bucs don't have a FB at all.

 

Harbaugh would. :) 

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4 hours ago, richard pallo said:

RTDB…remember run the damn ball?  That’s what being smash mouth football is all about.  That was supposed to be our identity.  Shirts and hats were sold to highlight that philosophy.  Reich mentioned it many times.  We did it with Taylor last year.  The line blocked.  The TE’s blocked.  Opened holes for Taylor.  Boom. We were primarily running between the tackles.  Tried again this year but the line failed.  The TE’s failed to block.  Now we added a blocking TE in Kalinic to be the lead blocker when he is on the field.   Smash mouth is meant to be an offensive adjective.  Impose your will with the run game and wear the defense down which opens up the passing game.  Fixing the line and adding a true fullback would go a long way in elevating our run game.  No more Hines, a lightweight, up the middle.  That’s what some of us are seeing as a missing component to being a real smash mouth football team.  A big imposing line with good blocking TE’s and a big fullback imposing their will.  Taylor the big horse.

RTDB was Pagano's philosophy. They only ran the ball last year because JT broke out, and the passing game was unreliable. So it was more defacto than by design.

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On 11/29/2022 at 12:03 AM, BlueShoe said:

This team has a lot of talent. A right-minded coach, could quickly turn this team around in less than 2 years. The next coaching staff needs to install an offense that maximizes the players abilities. If they come in with an ideology that doesn’t fit the players then we will see more of the same as this season. 

That’s a great post overall and very well thought out. I agree that the issue is that Ballard is micro managing the team. He has a little too much say on team identity and schemes when he should really just be drafting players that fit his coaches needs.

 

To the quoted, a new HC will basically need to be able to do what Daboll has done and maximize their effort until they start to get their own players in. 

On 11/29/2022 at 12:03 AM, BlueShoe said:

Ballard wants larger body receivers who can block. Reich’s offense requires elite route runners who can fly. Who is wrong here? Both, because they were not on the same page. Ballard drafted his vision of the team. Reich installed his vision of the offense. That will never work. The playbook needs to to be built around the players. It was not. The vision needs to be shared. It was not.

Yup. “Ballard’s vision” which includes:

-Tall WR’s who can block, but aren’t great route runners

-Traitsy DEs with limited play strength who can set an edge better than they can get to the QB

-Uber athletic players with high RAS

-Corners with 32” arms 

-4-3 cover-2 defense

 

Add in his philosophies on not using FA, over paying any guy the team drafts, and the lack of success of hitting on the skill positions, and you can see why it wasn’t all on the coach.

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20 hours ago, richard pallo said:

You have no guarantee Smith will be the answer at RG or we have a push at RT and an elite LT.  All very much unproven.  Three positions now up in the air.  Smith stays where he is.  One less position to worry about.  Very confident that’s what they will do.

I get that.  There are no more guarantees in my scenario than there are guarantees that Raimann will be a better LT than a top 10 pick or that Fries will be a better RG than Smith. 

 

Based on probabilities, I tend to think that Smith will be a better RG than Fries and that a top 10 LT pick will eventually be better than a guy picked at 77.  Whether or not Raimann can play as well as Smith at RT in a year is more of a toss up.

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17 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yikes. I'm not that strong on either of them.

 

To answer your question, I doubt it. The Chiefs have a FB they use sparingly, probably only in short yardage, not as a regular part of their offense. The Bucs don't have a FB at all.

 

 Irsays choice for HC will perhaps be viewed under the most powerful microscope yet witnessed. 

 IMO i expect him to go with the best mind on offense he can get. I'm hoping so.

  Def had a very good poiint regarding Ballard drafting for his vision.

 And i look at several of the best receivers out there. Justin Jefferson ran a 4.43. Diggs 4.46. These guys are Reggies size with Reggies 4.45 speed.

 They are so quick you can't stick with their great moves. Ballard took a shot with Campbell and his 4.3's speed, but he runs more like a RB than a twitchy WR.

 

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On 11/29/2022 at 12:03 AM, BlueShoe said:

For future reference, I am posting this after the Steelers game. Colts record is 4-7-1. 
 

I believe Jim Irsay fully intended to keep Chris Ballard around at the end of this season. He still might… However, that will depend on Irsay being okay with Ballard’s philosophy. It could also depend on whether or not he keeps Saturday too. I will explain my thoughts…

 

For me, the obvious issue with the 2022 Colts is that Frank Reich and Chris Ballard were building two different football teams and it finally caught up to the Colts. Reich wanted his version of the Ted Marchibroda K-Gun and Chris Ballard wanted his version of Wisconsin smashmouth. 
 

It’s the old square pegs and round holes analogy. 
 

Ballard wants larger body receivers who can block. Reich’s offense requires elite route runners who can fly. Who is wrong here? Both, because they were not on the same page. Ballard drafted his vision of the team. Reich installed his vision of the offense. That will never work. The playbook needs to to be built around the players. It was not. The vision needs to be shared. It was not. 
 

This team has the personnel to be a very good smashmouth team. Meaning a lot of 21 and 22 personnel sets. The team is missing a true fullback though. But that’s not too challenging to find.
 

Chris Ballard and Jeff Saturday have the same mindset. Unfortunately they are using Reich’s playbook. It’s near impossible to create a new playbook midseason. So they are screwed there. Also, I don’t think Ballard is a huge fan of hiring Jeff Saturday… So there is that too. 
 

Jim Irsay needs to be very careful how he proceeds, because hiring a GM and coach combination that wants to completely change the defensive philosophy will set this franchise back another 2-3 years. Bringing in a GM and coach with 3-4 defensive aspirations would be ridiculous. 
 

This team has a lot of talent. A right-minded coach, could quickly turn this team around in less than 2 years. The next coaching staff needs to install an offense that maximizes the players abilities. If they come in with an ideology that doesn’t fit the players then we will see more of the same as this season. 
 

Also, Colts fans might want to start watching film on Will Levis. That marriage is looking more and more possible as the days go by. His ceiling is Josh Allen. However, his floor is Tim Couch. 

I do not feel that there is any need for a complete rebuild.  We have terrific players at a lot of positions.  We did have 7 PLAYERS make the Pro Bowl just last season.

 

Our issues are young players - the need for a younger QB - and - depth at a number of spots.

 

There is no need to go "Rambo" on this team roster.

 

We have the off-season to acquire more depth - and - the 2023 draft to shore up certain deficiencies.

 

I believe in Chris Ballard - and - his ability to "right the ship".

 

God bless our Colts!!

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On 12/1/2022 at 3:19 AM, NewColtsFan said:


Sorry to break it to you, but Reich and Ballard are still highly thought of.   Maybe not be this fan base, but certainly within the NFL community.    I’m saying that by what I read on websites like NFL.com, ESPN.com,  The Athletic.com and a new one called The 33rd Team, which I’ll be writing more about soon.
 

One bad season does not ruin reputations that have been well earned over years.   And Dodds and Brown don’t suffer simply via Guilt By Association.   That’s what angry fans do.  
 

We’re going to have to agree to disagree. 

I'm fine agreeing to disagree with you,, we usually do.. Lol

 

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2 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

I'm fine agreeing to disagree with you,, we usually do.. Lol

 


That’s fine.   But this is my issue with not only you, but the vast majority of posters here.  
 

I cited four websites whose writers talk to Owners, GMs, coaches, players and other front office, plus agents and league executives and behind the scenes personnel.   They are as close as a fan can get to expert or near-expert level insights. Are they always right?   Of course not.  No one in sports of any kind is always right.  
 

But fans here want their opinions to have the same weight as the experts and near-experts.   And it’s not just a sports thing.  It’s now this way in politics and other issues well.  Experts try to present facts, and people simply say….  “Well, I don’t agree with that.  That’s my opinion and I’m entitled.”     That’s the world we now live in. 
 

Opinions vs facts.   I know which I value more.   Yes, we can agree to disagree. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


That’s fine.   But this is my issue with not only you, but the vast majority of posters here.  
 

I cited four websites whose writers talk to Owners, GMs, coaches, players and other front office, plus agents and league executives and behind the scenes personnel.   They are as close as a fan can get to expert or near-expert level insights. Are they always right?   Of course not.  No one in sports of any kind is always right.  
 

But fans here want their opinions to have the same weight as the experts and near-experts.   And it’s not just a sports thing.  It’s now this way in politics and other issues well.  Experts try to present facts, and people simply say….  “Well, I don’t agree with that.  That’s my opinion and I’m entitled.”     That’s the world we now live in. 
 

Opinions vs facts.   I know which I value more.   Yes, we can agree to disagree. 
 

 

Can't agree with this more

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19 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


That’s fine.   But this is my issue with not only you, but the vast majority of posters here.  
 

I cited four websites whose writers talk to Owners, GMs, coaches, players and other front office, plus agents and league executives and behind the scenes personnel.   They are as close as a fan can get to expert or near-expert level insights. Are they always right?   Of course not.  No one in sports of any kind is always right.  
 

But fans here want their opinions to have the same weight as the experts and near-experts.   And it’s not just a sports thing.  It’s now this way in politics and other issues well.  Experts try to present facts, and people simply say….  “Well, I don’t agree with that.  That’s my opinion and I’m entitled.”     That’s the world we now live in. 
 

Opinions vs facts.   I know which I value more.   Yes, we can agree to disagree. 
 

 

Ok....but those so called experts of yours ARE NOT colt fans....if they truly were they wouldn't be happy with the results either.

 

As far as opinions vs facts is, the Fact is the colts have a losing record the last 8 years, 6 of them with Ballard, with no division titles and only 1 playoff win....and all that in the weakest division in the nfl. 

 

Those are the Facts, and I'm  not even going to mention the needs at premium positions going into the 7th season, including QB.

 

This time, lets truly agree to disagree. 

 

Ciao

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20 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


That’s fine.   But this is my issue with not only you, but the vast majority of posters here.  
 

I cited four websites whose writers talk to Owners, GMs, coaches, players and other front office, plus agents and league executives and behind the scenes personnel.   They are as close as a fan can get to expert or near-expert level insights. Are they always right?   Of course not.  No one in sports of any kind is always right.  
 

But fans here want their opinions to have the same weight as the experts and near-experts.   And it’s not just a sports thing.  It’s now this way in politics and other issues well.  Experts try to present facts, and people simply say….  “Well, I don’t agree with that.  That’s my opinion and I’m entitled.”     That’s the world we now live in. 
 

Opinions vs facts.   I know which I value more.   Yes, we can agree to disagree. 
 

 

I don’t believe many posters think Ballard’s reputation has been “ruined,” as you say. You’re using hyperbole for effect. I think most just see Ballard as average to slightly below average, which is what he is if you go strictly by facts (45-47-1), which you make a point of saying that you value. And we don’t want an average GM making decisions any more. That seems like a reasonable position for a fan to take. 

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3 hours ago, ShuteAt168 said:

I don’t believe many posters think Ballard’s reputation has been “ruined,” as you say. You’re using hyperbole for effect. I think most just see Ballard as average to slightly below average, which is what he is if you go strictly by facts (45-47-1), which you make a point of saying that you value. And we don’t want an average GM making decisions any more. That seems like a reasonable position for a fan to take. 


Huh?   I never even used the word “ruin”.   Never said it, never implied it, never even thought it.   I know how to use hyperbole for effect and this wasn’t it.  Typically when I do, I’ll add a winking emoji to let readers in on my position. 
 

I think Ballard’s detractors keep making the same mistake.  They keep using the 2017 season against him to make the case.  Clearly Irsay doesn’t.   He gave Ballard a new 6-year contract a year ago and called him the best GM in the business, if not one of the best, as recently as late August.  So Ballard’s boss thinks far more of him than the fan base does.   And really, that’s all that matters. 

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9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Huh?   I never even used the word “ruin”.   Never said it, never implied it, never even thought it.   I know how to use hyperbole for effect and this wasn’t it.  Typically when I do, I’ll add a winking emoji to let readers in on my position. 
 

I think Ballard’s detractors keep making the same mistake.  They keep using the 2017 season against him to make the case.  Clearly Irsay doesn’t.   He gave Ballard a new 6-year contract a year ago and called him the best GM in the business, if not one of the best, as recently as late August.  So Ballard’s boss thinks far more of him than the fan base does.   And really, that’s all that matters. 

“One bad season does not ruin reputations that have been well earned over years.” Irsay said Reich was safe and fired him a week later. You have no clue what Irsay thinks.  

 

 

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48 minutes ago, ShuteAt168 said:

“One bad season does not ruin reputations that have been well earned over years.” Irsay said Reich was safe and fired him a week later. You have no clue what Irsay thinks.  

 

 


Says you.   Irsay looked bad firing Reich.  Maybe not to the fan base, but to the rest of the football world he did.  And it only got worse when he hired Saturday.  
 

At this point I think the only way Ballard leaves is (A) if he quits, or (B) Irsay hires someone like Harbaugh and wants to take some of Ballard’s authority away and CB balks at that.  Perhaps they negotiate a buyout.  But again, Irsay would look like a child throwing a temper tantrum if Ballard leaves less than a year after Irsay heaped praise on him.  Irsay’s word would be near worthless. 
 

If you’re attempting to level the playing field that I don’t more or less than anyone else here, that would be your opinion.  You wouldn’t be the first to hold that view.  So good luck with that…. 

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13 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


Huh?   I never even used the word “ruin”.   Never said it, never implied it, never even thought it.   I know how to use hyperbole for effect and this wasn’t it.  Typically when I do, I’ll add a winking emoji to let readers in on my position. 
 

I think Ballard’s detractors keep making the same mistake.  They keep using the 2017 season against him to make the case.  Clearly Irsay doesn’t.   He gave Ballard a new 6-year contract a year ago and called him the best GM in the business, if not one of the best, as recently as late August.  So Ballard’s boss thinks far more of him than the fan base does.   And really, that’s all that matters. 

I think you’re right, but I’m more cautious with Irsay after these past few seasons…

 

Now more than ever: watch what he does, not what he says.

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On 12/3/2022 at 9:34 PM, NewColtsFan said:


Says you.   Irsay looked bad firing Reich.  Maybe not to the fan base, but to the rest of the football world he did.  And it only got worse when he hired Saturday.  
 

At this point I think the only way Ballard leaves is (A) if he quits, or (B) Irsay hires someone like Harbaugh and wants to take some of Ballard’s authority away and CB balks at that.  Perhaps they negotiate a buyout.  But again, Irsay would look like a child throwing a temper tantrum if Ballard leaves less than a year after Irsay heaped praise on him.  Irsay’s word would be near worthless. 
 

If you’re attempting to level the playing field that I don’t more or less than anyone else here, that would be your opinion.  You wouldn’t be the first to hold that view.  So good luck with that…. 

Your high opinion of Ballard looks smarter and smarter every game. 

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On 12/3/2022 at 9:34 PM, NewColtsFan said:


Says you.   Irsay looked bad firing Reich.  Maybe not to the fan base, but to the rest of the football world he did.  And it only got worse when he hired Saturday.  
 

At this point I think the only way Ballard leaves is (A) if he quits, or (B) Irsay hires someone like Harbaugh and wants to take some of Ballard’s authority away and CB balks at that.  Perhaps they negotiate a buyout.  But again, Irsay would look like a child throwing a temper tantrum if Ballard leaves less than a year after Irsay heaped praise on him.  Irsay’s word would be near worthless. 
 

If you’re attempting to level the playing field that I don’t more or less than anyone else here, that would be your opinion.  You wouldn’t be the first to hold that view.  So good luck with that…. 

Are you sticking w the stance that you never used “ruin” too? Lol 

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On 11/29/2022 at 5:39 PM, richard pallo said:

Ryan is the best quarterback on the team.  He almost pulled out another 4th quarter comeback last night.  Jeff is trying to win.  He is auditioning for the job.  He nor Irsay are currently looking ahead to next year.  His job and the players jobs are to win right now.  Period end of story.

Do you still believe that about Ryan today?

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5 minutes ago, FanFromtheWasteland said:

Do you still believe that about Ryan today?

I think he is better than Sam and Foles.  We were in the game until the 4th qtr. Then we fell apart and he made some bad throws that really killed us.  I would play Foles now if it was me.  I would like to see him play.  We have already seen Sam play. We have decisions to make and Foles should be given an opportunity imo.  I would like to see where he is.  Might be a nice surprise.

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I don't think a total rebuild is coming. For the fact of contracts. We do need a rebuild in a handful of players my 1st pick is QB and then focus on the OL. Plus coaching and play calling. I love having Reggie as WR coach but I don't think he comes back. He came in the first place for Frank and stuck around with the Saturday hire. Reggie going back to Miami and live. IMO

 

This team will figure it out just going to be a bumpy ride... Hold on Lol

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I agree with the poster on one thing, a rebuild is definitely coming. If Irsay decides to keep Ballard and or Saturday then we will see more seasons like this current one. Just what will that prove? The Colts don't just need a re-build, they need a hard reset!!!

No more tweaking, that is not going to work! We are not just a couple players away. We are 4-8-1 in one of the worst divisions in football. No amount of tweaking or scheming is going to fix this. Does anybody really believe that Ballard and a new coach can tweak us out of this situation? If so, you are fooling yourselves. What evidence is there that this is likely to happen? Where is the evidence that Ballard will even draft a new QB? We have not won a divisional championship since 2014. You would think an amazing GM could put a team together that could win one damned championship in one of the worst divisions in football. But, he has not done this.  One playoff win in six years. Is this what leads us to believe that genius Ballard will turn it around with one more year of tweaking. It is not going to happen! Hard Reset!

1. Fire Ballard and Saturday (anything else gets you more of what we saw this year).

2. Hire an experienced GM and coach who are committed to an aggressive modern offensive style befitting to the modern NFL. This is not a knock on the pound and ground lovers. But, If I have to watch this team lose every week for the next three years, I would rather watch them lose in a shootout each week. At least that will sell tickets if Mr. Irsay is worried about such things. Nobody wants to tune-in to see their professional football team average 13 points per game.

2. Identify the 5 to 6 players you want to keep on each side of the ball as a core.

3. Trade or release everyone else for draft picks and or salary cap space.

4. Draft a mobile rookie QB of the future (We currently sit at #9, if you can't figure out how to move up from #9, then you don't deserve to be a GM.

5. Fix the offensive line through the draft and free agency so the shiny new QB you drafted doesn't die in his first year.

6. New coach, new GM, new QB, new direction. Let the chips fall where they may and evaluate after three years.

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52 minutes ago, philba101 said:

I agree with the poster on one thing, a rebuild is definitely coming. If Irsay decides to keep Ballard and or Saturday then we will see more seasons like this current one. Just what will that prove? The Colts don't just need a re-build, they need a hard reset!!!

No more tweaking, that is not going to work! We are not just a couple players away. We are 4-8-1 in one of the worst divisions in football. No amount of tweaking or scheming is going to fix this. Does anybody really believe that Ballard and a new coach can tweak us out of this situation? If so, you are fooling yourselves. What evidence is there that this is likely to happen? Where is the evidence that Ballard will even draft a new QB? We have not won a divisional championship since 2014. You would think an amazing GM could put a team together that could win one damned championship in one of the worst divisions in football. But, he has not done this.  One playoff win in six years. Is this what leads us to believe that genius Ballard will turn it around with one more year of tweaking. It is not going to happen! Hard Reset!

1. Fire Ballard and Saturday (anything else gets you more of what we saw this year).

2. Hire an experienced GM and coach who are committed to an aggressive modern offensive style befitting to the modern NFL. This is not a knock on the pound and ground lovers. But, If I have to watch this team lose every week for the next three years, I would rather watch them lose in a shootout each week. At least that will sell tickets if Mr. Irsay is worried about such things. Nobody wants to tune-in to see their professional football team average 13 points per game.

2. Identify the 5 to 6 players you want to keep on each side of the ball as a core.

3. Trade or release everyone else for draft picks and or salary cap space.

4. Draft a mobile rookie QB of the future (We currently sit at #9, if you can't figure out how to move up from #9, then you don't deserve to be a GM.

5. Fix the offensive line through the draft and free agency so the shiny new QB you drafted doesn't die in his first year.

6. New coach, new GM, new QB, new direction. Let the chips fall where they may and evaluate after three years.

I hope you feel better now.

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