Why A Total Rebuild Is Coming - And How We Got In This Situation

[BlueShoe]

18 minutes ago, KB said:

So how would anyone go about this rebuild. Are we keeping our good players and shuffling the rest of the roster, or are we trading our best away with the hopes to replace their production in the draft? I don't want to see it. That would mean 3 more years of games worse than these past few months. Still an interesting talking point to see everyone's strategies. 

 

If I am the GM, I would hire a coaching staff that plans to fit a defense around the players we already have... During interviews, any coach who speaks of transitioning to a 34 defense would go into the unredeemable pile. For anyone who has watched the new Christmas movie, Spirited... Well, I would not go after a Ryan Reynolds... My job isn't to fix the world; it would be to fix the Colts. 

 

We are going to end up with a top 10 pick... I think Will Levis is on the table for us... I love his upside, but his downside is scary... I mentioned above that I believe Will Levis has Josh Allen traits. His downside scares me, because I think his floor is Tim Couch. If Will Levis is within striking distance, then I believe we have to pull the trigger. Finding retread after retread is just not working. The Colts need their own face of the franchise. We have played Mickey Mouse games long enough. It is time to be big boys and take the risk. 

 

As far as the offense, I would have the same mentality... I would like to bring in someone who installs an offense around the players abilities. JT is a runner who would flourish with a fullback. I want to see some elements of smashmouth football... That doesn't mean the Colts won't have some spread sets... But it means we would have some 2 back sets. I can envision JT with a lead blocker, and it is a beautiful thing. 

 

Finally, I would make sure I completely understand what the coach is doing... I need to completely know what his plans are... What kinds of players he wants. I would make sure we don't have different visions of how to build the team. We would have to be on the same page with everything we do. A lot of this goes back to the hiring process, and asking the right questions in the interview. 

[shasta519]

Been saying this for years, but Ballard's philosophy is clearly rooted in the orgs he has worked in (CHI, KC). None of them drafted and developed a QB or built high-flying offenses while he was there. Instead, their identities were stout opportunistic defenses with strong run games. 

 

And I think Irsay that's why Irsay hired Ballard. He wanted Ballard to build something similar to those 2013-17 KC teams. They were loaded with talent, had a great running game and good defense...and that they won a lot of games and made the playoffs.

 

However, KC didn't have any playoff success because they didn't have the QB in place. But Irsay had Luck. So if you could just put a team like that around him, they would have a SB contender. It was a good strategy.

 

And I do think Ballard managed to build a KC-lite roster. But even with good QB play, this team still has a ceiling of a WC team.

 

But the job going forward is very different than what it was in 2017. And even though he has drafted some talented players, I don't know how anybody could be confident that he's the guy for the job. 

 

 

[Coltsbluefan]

2 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Been saying this for years, but Ballard's philosophy is clearly rooted in the orgs he has worked in (CHI, KC). None of them drafted and developed a QB or built high-flying offenses while he was there. Instead, their identities were stout opportunistic defenses with strong run games. 

 

And I think Irsay that's why Irsay hired Ballard. He wanted Ballard to build something similar to those 2013-17 KC teams. They were loaded with talent, had a great running game and good defense...and that they won a lot of games and made the playoffs.

 

However, KC didn't have any playoff success because they didn't have the QB in place. But Irsay had Luck. So if you could just put a team like that around him, they would have a SB contender. It was a good strategy.

 

And I do think Ballard managed to build a KC-lite roster. But even with good QB play, this team still has a ceiling of a WC team.

 

But the job going forward is very different than what it was in 2017. And even though he has drafted some talented players, I don't know how anybody could be confident that he's the guy for the job. 

 

 

I agree with everything you just said..very good read.

[Coltsbluefan]

It’s time for a total rebuild,Ballard has to go..it’s gonna take a couple of years to get back where we all want to be.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Ballard is why we are here. 

[shasta519]

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A team can trade skill players with top contracts because some team would see the talent as not being easily replaced.   Its harder to trade nonskill players with top contracts because teams feel they can go elsewhere to get the same level of production.  If a team thinks that Nelson or Smith or Leonard will be the key to them going from playoff team to a SB contender, then they can make the trade.  How likely is that to happen?

 

So since we are going to be stuck with our players, our "rebuild" is actually the same thing as simply continuing to rebuild around our existing players. 

 

We can't even do a blow up and rebuild correctly. 

 

Unless you just want to cut Nelson, Smith, and Leonard, but they contribute enough to keep around, IMO.   Leonard has is own problems of whether or not he can even play again, so including him in any rebuild strategy is premature, IMO.

 

The issue is that they have lack trade assets, except for DeFo, JT and Pittman, who all 3 will need extensions soon.

 

But the time to trade that 2018 class has passed. Setting aside the cap ramifications, I just can't imagine any team is giving up real draft capital to take on the large contract of a LG (who hasn't been the same dominant player for a couple years), a WILL that's hurt (possibly permanently) and a RT...though maybe Smith would bring back a Day 2 pick.

 

I think the harsh reality of this is that the window for the team that Ballard built is pretty much closed. You could trade DeFo, JT and Pittman...but you just have to replace them all. 

[DougDew]

31 minutes ago, twfish said:

A skinny X? Not exactly how I would describe 6'4 225 WR whose put up good numbers with bleh QB play (the past 2 years has had incredibly similar yardage to scary terry which I'm sure you would be clamoring to have drafted), Nice of you to weirdly go top 37 when JT was the 41st pick almost like you have some sort of bias. We had 1 year left of Rocks contract so that's a wash. Wouldn't a player drafted later playing at high level be a good thing not a negative, also to discredit Leonard is laughable because he produces turnovers like no one else playing the game. Lastly the team is built up through the entire draft not just the top 37 picks, so why not look at the times we traded back and used  those picks on players.

 

However it doesn't matter who we would take or how we would play because YOU are simply a hater of every single decision the colts have ever made. We could go win the super bowl and you would be mad they didn't go undefeated. It's one thing to be critical of the team but I don't think I've ever seen a positive post come from you.

225 on a 6'4" frame is football skinny.  Same as Jordan Love, a QB.  He's scrappy and wiry, like a lot of skinny guys.  He's not really a big body X, and not really fast enough or agile enough to be a Z.  He's kind of a tweener, and I'm not sure that hes playing even up to his size.  No need to get all frothy over the truth.

 

I don't hate the decisions the Colts have ever made.   Just the Hooker and Nelson picks; the Leonard and Nelson resign.  The get-out-of Wentz trade,  The reliance on Hines being a talented player, the Hines resign, and the fact it took 6 years to realize Hines sucked at just about everything when I thought it was obvious after about year 2.  His success came as a result of great play calling for him and usage.

 

I hated the nepotism used in picking Fisher over Leno, then Ballard saying later out of the blue how nepotism isn't tolerated, LOL.

 

Would you feel better if I said that one pick in the top 41 over the past 5 years has earned its investment?  Ok fine.  One, but the guy is starting to fumble again like he did in college.  shhhh.

 

I can't think of a trade down that resulted in anything consequential.  I think most of the capital received by the Nelson trade has been squandered by this point.

 

What's to be positive about when you're lucky to be 4-7-1?  Everybody knows we should be worse.  I've always thought that previous years achievement's were due to excellent coaching of marginal talented roster....or a roster that had good talent cooped up in unusable positions.  But even excellent coaching has its limits...they can't work miracles.

 

I've always been fairly positive about the coaching. At least not hateful about it. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, shasta519 said:

 

The issue is that they have lack trade assets, except for DeFo, JT and Pittman, who all 3 will need extensions soon.

 

But the time to trade that 2018 class has passed. Setting aside the cap ramifications, I just can't imagine any team is giving up real draft capital to take on the large contract of a LG (who hasn't been the same dominant player for a couple years), a WILL that's hurt (possibly permanently) and a RT...though maybe Smith would bring back a Day 2 pick.

 

I think the harsh reality of this is that the window for the team that Ballard built is pretty much closed. You could trade DeFo, JT and Pittman...but you just have to replace them all. 

Smith would probably give us something. He has been pretty darn good/ but I don’t think colts want to give up their best oline man. The guys that need extensions coming like Pittman and Taylor are the guys that would bring trade value. Along with Buckne  so you are right there. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

The worst thing about Ballard is giving Nelson and Leonard extensions when he knew they had chronic injuries. 

[shasta519]

8 hours ago, twfish said:

I doubt a full rebuild. I’d say we are at the same point the Chiefs were before they drafted Mahomes. We’ve got a lot of talent across the roster and I don’t think there’s any reason to ship a bunch of guys off due to a new GM. We are a QB, an offensive coordinator and a LT away from being back in the playoffs. 

 

They were supposed to be where KC was before they drafted Mahomes, but they really aren't. 

 

The 2015-16 KC teams were 23-9. The 2021-22 Colts are currently 13-14-1 (and will likely finish a few games below .500). 

 

KC also had Alex Smith at QB to allow Mahomes to develop for a season. 

 

This team needs a new direction. 

[shasta519]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Smith would probably give us something. He has been pretty darn good/ but I don’t think colts want to give up their best oline man. The guys that need extensions coming like Pittman and Taylor are the guys that would bring trade value. Along with Buckne  so you are right there. 

 

Yeah. I don't see them trading Smith anyways. But he has some value. 

[BlackTiger]

We need a LT and QB, probably the two most important positions in the game.  We would be fine if we only had that covered

 

The question is can we do it before the team falls apart?

 

Tanking is not a good option imo, people will leave if we do that and no one will want to come here.

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

For future reference, I am posting this after the Steelers game. Colts record is 4-7-1. 
 

I believe Jim Irsay fully intended to keep Chris Ballard around at the end of this season. He still might… However, that will depend on Irsay being okay with Ballard’s philosophy. It could also depend on whether or not he keeps Saturday too. I will explain my thoughts…

 

For me, the obvious issue with the 2022 Colts is that Frank Reich and Chris Ballard were building two different football teams and it finally caught up to the Colts. Reich wanted his version of the Ted Marchibroda K-Gun and Chris Ballard wanted his version of Wisconsin smashmouth. 
 

It’s the old square pegs and round holes analogy. 
 

Ballard wants larger body receivers who can block. Reich’s offense requires elite route runners who can fly. Who is wrong here? Both, because they were not on the same page. Ballard drafted his vision of the team. Reich installed his vision of the offense. That will never work. The playbook needs to to be built around the players. It was not. The vision needs to be shared. It was not. 
 

This team has the personnel to be a very good smashmouth team. Meaning a lot of 21 and 22 personnel sets. The team is missing a true fullback though. But that’s not too challenging to find.
 

Chris Ballard and Jeff Saturday have the same mindset. Unfortunately they are using Reich’s playbook. It’s near impossible to create a new playbook midseason. So they are screwed there. Also, I don’t think Ballard is a huge fan of hiring Jeff Saturday… So there is that too. 
 

Jim Irsay needs to be very careful how he proceeds, because hiring a GM and coach combination that wants to completely change the defensive philosophy will set this franchise back another 2-3 years. Bringing in a GM and coach with 3-4 defensive aspirations would be ridiculous. 
 

This team has a lot of talent. A right-minded coach, could quickly turn this team around in less than 2 years. The next coaching staff needs to install an offense that maximizes the players abilities. If they come in with an ideology that doesn’t fit the players then we will see more of the same as this season. 
 

Also, Colts fans might want to start watching film on Will Levis. That marriage is looking more and more possible as the days go by. His ceiling is Josh Allen. However, his floor is Tim Couch. 

I absolutely ...... it when someone says we have a lot of talent. A team that is 4-7-1 is not riddled with talent. We fired the coach and team still sucks.

[BlueShoe]

19 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

This is a nice debate. The Ravens are a RUNNING team with a talented dual threat qb who mostly runs because he lacks adequate receivers. Lamar has won a league MVP already but there are some in his OWN building QUESTIONING whether this type of offense is sustainable long term. Outside media cry get Lamar some RECEIVING weapons and the offense would be lethal. (See what Philly has done with Hurts) The Ravens WILL NOT win a SB as currently constructed WITHOUT a passing game to COMPLIMENT their running game period! I didn't have to go back 20 years for my argument because I saw the Rams WIN a SB just last season with essentially NO run game all year.

 

The Colts run game is WAY too predictable anyway! It is BASIC by all accounts. Did you see the JT 3rd and 3 play at the end of the game with about 30 seconds left that the Steelers blew up?! EVERYONE knew that play was coming! If the Colts want to be a TRUE ground and pound then get JT a fullback as someone else said. If they want to be the Ravens good luck in finding a qb with Lamar's UNIQUE skillset as far as his dynamic running style. Oh wait a minute the Ravens moved back up into the BOTTOM of the 1st round to take him. Other teams had that SAME option if they thought RUNNING the ball was the NEW LANDSCAPE of the nfl....

 

We agree with a lot more than you might think we do. I will help you understand why...

 

I believe Greg Roman accidently opened a door for the future of the NFL... That door was taboo for many years. He dared to go through it too. However, he was given an assist by modern NFL rules. 20 years ago, there is no way an NFL could even think about running the Medieval Offense that Greg Roman has designed. The old philosophy is for the quarterback to navigate the pocket, find the open receiver, and deliver a catchable ball. That was the basics, right? A statue QB is all a team needed. 

 

Modern rules protect quarterbacks so much that they are asking for flags to be thrown any time a defensive player touches them. Hell, a defender could miss a swipe at the ball, and have his pinky graze the side of the quarterbacks helmet... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback is sacked, and a defender lays on top of him during the sack... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback stands in the pocket and a defender hits him below the waist... 15 yard penalty. See where this is going?

 

As an offensive play designer, the rule of not being allowed to breath on a quarterback has to be included into design. If the defense drops 7 and covers everyone, then teach the quarterback to run for as many yards and then slide... By the way if the quarterback is touched in any meaningful way while sliding... You guessed it, 15 yard penalty. Now we are talking about a quarterback who is an athlete. 

 

So what you have is an offense that can run even when it is passing... We are getting closer to what the Ravens are doing...

 

The smashmouth part of the offense really comes alive when the Ravens bring in fullback Patrick Ricard. This guy is so great at his trade... I love thinking about the offensive sets I could run with Ricard as my lead blocker... I think fullbacks are going to make a strong comeback in the NFL... This is mostly due to the fact that college football is designing offenses to use fullbacks... 

 

People think that the NFL dictates philosophies to the NFL... It is the other way around... The players are coming from college... So the smart NFL coaches have learned to not force a player into a premade system... and instead build a system around the players. This has been happening for a while now, but folks regurgitate that college football is running more pro style offenses. Well, why is that? It is because they are sprinkling in more smashmouth football. Many college teams can run both spread and smashmouth. Hell, they have so many players on the rosters they need to use the same numbers several times. They have rosters that double the NFL limit of 53.

 

We are going to see more athletic quarterbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. We are going to see more fullbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. 

[BlueShoe]

4 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I absolutely ...... it when someone says we have a lot of talent. A team that is 4-7-1 is not riddled with talent. We fired the coach and team still sucks.

 

Our main problem has been that we are not using the talent we have correctly. Ballard and Reich had two different visions of what the team should be. We are witnessing the fallout of that now. 

[runthepost]

2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

We agree with a lot more than you might think we do. I will help you understand why...

 

I believe Greg Roman accidently opened a door for the future of the NFL... That door was taboo for many years. He dared to go through it too. However, he was given an assist by modern NFL rules. 20 years ago, there is no way an NFL could even think about running the Medieval Offense that Greg Roman has designed. The old philosophy is for the quarterback to navigate the pocket, find the open receiver, and deliver a catchable ball. That was the basics, right? A statue QB is all a team needed. 

 

Modern rules protect quarterbacks so much that they are asking for flags to be thrown any time a defensive player touches them. Hell, a defender could miss a swipe at the ball, and have his pinky graze the side of the quarterbacks helmet... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback is sacked, and a defender lays on top of him during the sack... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback stands in the pocket and a defender hits him below the waist... 15 yard penalty. See where this is going?

 

As an offensive play designer, the rule of not being allowed to breath on a quarterback has to be included into design. If the defense drops 7 and covers everyone, then teach the quarterback to run for as many yards and then slide... By the way if the quarterback is touched in any meaningful way while sliding... You guessed it, 15 yard penalty. Now we are talking about a quarterback who is an athlete. 

 

So what you have is an offense that can run even when it is passing... We are getting closer to what the Ravens are doing...

 

The smashmouth part of the offense really comes alive when the Ravens bring in fullback Patrick Ricard. This guy is so great at his trade... I love thinking about the offensive sets I could run with Ricard as my lead blocker... I think fullbacks are going to make a strong comeback in the NFL... This is mostly due to the fact that college football is designing offenses to use fullbacks... 

 

People think that the NFL dictates philosophies to the NFL... It is the other way around... The players are coming from college... So the smart NFL coaches have learned to not force a player into a premade system... and instead build a system around the players. This has been happening for a while now, but folks regurgitate that college football is running more pro style offenses. Well, why is that? It is because they are sprinkling in more smashmouth football. Many college teams can run both spread and smashmouth. Hell, they have so many players on the rosters they need to use the same numbers several times. They have rosters that double the NFL limit of 53.

 

We are going to see more athletic quarterbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. We are going to see more fullbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. 

The Ravens offense hasn’t won anything. More people are going the Kansas City way of offense and letting the QB tear up the opposing defenses. RBs are the least valuable position on offense which is why I’m stating that. More teams are putting players in motion pre snap to read the defense, something KC does everytime. The ravens offense is a poor replica of the Panthers offense with Cam Newton and SF with Collin

[BlueShoe]

Just now, runthepost said:

The Ravens offense hasn’t won anything. More people are going the Kansas City way of offense and letting the QB tear up the opposing defenses. RBs are the least valuable position on offense which is why I’m stating that. More teams are putting players in motion pre snap to read the defense, something KC does everytime. The ravens offense is a poor replica of the Panthers offense with Cam Newton and SF with Collin

 

You have completely missed every point that I have made. Please reread it. 

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Smashmouth still works and NFL history is littered with success of blending a 43 defense with smashmouth football. One of the most famous; the 2002 Buccaneers. The 2022 Colts are built similar. A few pieces along with a unified mindset from the front office to the coaching staff… They could become that. 
 

I believe the NFL’s future is smashmouth football. Especially with all the dual threat quarterbacks entering the league.

Smash mouth football is very expensive to build. U need an elite defense and those r very expensive as a defensive success is built more on talent than scheme. U can build a successful offence by scheming if u wish. Also a smash mouth offence requires a very good Oline. So u have a lot of money invested in your D. Oline, qb and usually rb. Now I truly believe in order for this style of O to be successful u need a lot of speed in your 2 wide outs to take pleasure off your running game. Those guys r very expensive. I like the Titans but that is  why I think they will always stall. U watch the Benglas play them. They just stick the box and they have no elite wrs to take the pressure off . Thr Titans will always come up short in trying to get to the supervowl and having to run through high powered offences with some good defences sprinkled in.

[runthepost]

2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

You have completely missed every point that I have made. Please reread it. 

You stated Greg Romans opening the door for  the future of the NFL, I disagreed and explained why that isn’t. 

[Nevbot]

11 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yeah. I don't see them trading Smith anyways. But he has some value. 

 

11 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yeah. I don't see them trading Smith anyways. But he has some value. 

We are really going to have to separate our hearts from our minds in this upcoming offseason.  What is currently the best thing to win a game now for this team (JT, Nelson, Pittman, Leonard, Buckner, Gilmore) is most certainly not what will allow us to get where we need to go. 

He is my favorite Colt. I hate to say it.  But JT is the first and most sensible trade candidate.  I truly believe we could net a MINIMUM first round pick for him.  We only spent a second on him.  ROI on that move us in the right direction from a few of the errors we have made. 

For those of you saying "you don't trade your best players and expect to win in this league" - Oh ya?  How has that worked after paying Kelly, Smith, Nelson, Leonard?  I would say not well.  Time to zig when traditionally we have zagged.  

If we are going to draft a QB we will need some ammo to go get him.  Now I understand that JT might actually help a rookie QB by stacking boxes, but production at running back can consistently be found in rounds 2-5.  See JT, Rashad White, Kenneth Walker, Rhamonde, etc. By the time our rookie QB develops (hopefully) into a quality starter, JT will almost be done his SECOND contract.  He will basically be Zeke, at best, by that time and with that much tread on his tires.  Small NFL shelf life combined with a very replaceable position combined with his potential ROI of a 1st rounder = no brainer decision unfortunately. 

The only problem is that teams typically make this move when they know they are going to the playoffs, like the 49ers with CMC.  With the deadline passed, we would have to hope a team thinks they are contender before the season even starts. 

Nelsons contract is so expensive and his play has dropped off so dramatically that I think he stays.  Same with Leonard, but injury scares are what saddles him.  Like someone said, nobody is looking for a guard that is paid like a tackle when they can likely get similar production out of a 5-10 million dollar a year FA. 

Pittman would definitely garner some interest, and if the offer is good, we may have to listen.  I don't really want to pay him what he will command, and I don't think Ballard will either.  I don't even think he will want to stay here either. Would you if you were him? I am sure he would rather go to Baltimore where I bet he would flourish with that dawg mentality. 

Buckner should be shopped. Grover should work on his pass rush a bit and should now be an every down DT if he can hack it.  If we can get a 2nd or 3rd for Buckner, I would do it immediately. 

That's about the only value that we could get for any of our guys.  You may get a 5th or 6th rounder for Blackmon, which I would take at this point.  He has underperformed based on the potential he showed early. 

 

 

[BlueShoe]

1 minute ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Smash mouth football is very expensive to build. U need an elite defense and those r very expensive as a defensive success is built more on talent than scheme. U can build a successful offence by scheming if u wish. Also a smash mouth offence requires a very good Oline. So u have a lot of money invested in your D. Oline, qb and usually rb. Now I truly believe in order for this style of O to be successful u need a lot of speed in your 2 wide outs to take pleasure off your running game. Those guys r very expensive. I like the Titans but that is  why I think they will always stall. U watch the Benglas play them. They just stick the box and they have no elite wrs to take the pressure off . Thr Titans will always come up short in trying to get to the supervowl and having to run through high powered offences with some good defences sprinkled in.

 

I disagree with just about everything you are saying... And it is too much to pick apart in a single response...

 

Let's try starting with a base offense. Are you assuming that because the base offense uses a fullback, that an offense would never line up in 11 personnel? Let's start there first...

[Moosejawcolt]

3 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Our main problem has been that we are not using the talent we have correctly. Ballard and Reich had two different visions of what the team should be. We are witnessing the fallout of that now. 

Wd have  no LT, no qb, no #1 wr, an old #1 corner. Our salary cap is dedicated to a poor Oline. Our center looks washed up. Our LG has regressed and signed multiple million dollar contract. Our star rb is fumbling the ball and losing us games. Our best D players are our interior Dlinemen. Our highest paid D player looks like a cap cut next year. Hmmmm...talent u say?

Just now, BlueShoe said:

 

I disagree with just about everything you are saying... And it is too much to pick apart in a single response...

 

Let's try starting with a base offense. Are you assuming that because the base offense uses a fullback, that an offense would never line up in 11 personnel? Let's start there first...

I am looking at a perfect example like Tennessee. 

[BlueShoe]

3 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Wd have  no LT, no qb, no #1 wr, an old #1 corner. Our salary cap is dedicated to a poor Oline. Our center looks washed up. Our LG has regressed and signed multiple million dollar contract. Our star rb is fumbling the ball and losing us games. Our best D players are our interior Dlinemen. Our highest paid D player looks like a cap cut next year. Hmmmm...talent u say?

 

This team has a lot of talent on it. 

 

It needs a quarterback, and a unified vision from front office to the coaching staff. A rookie quarterback is coming this offseason. It is always a roll of the dice on those things though. But the Colts will have to take that risk. 

[BlueShoe]

6 minutes ago, runthepost said:

You stated Greg Romans opening the door for  the future of the NFL, I disagreed and explained why that isn’t. 

 

Greg Roman has opened the door to the future of the NFL... And I explained why... You did not. 

 

Feel free to disagree. Not sure if you and I have anything else to talk about. I don't think we do. Have a good day. 

[BlueShoe]

8 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I am looking at a perfect example like Tennessee. 

 

Tennessee was the last team to run a predominant smashmouth offense in the NFL... 

[BlueShoe]

59 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Been saying this for years, but Ballard's philosophy is clearly rooted in the orgs he has worked in (CHI, KC). None of them drafted and developed a QB or built high-flying offenses while he was there. Instead, their identities were stout opportunistic defenses with strong run games. 

 

And I think Irsay that's why Irsay hired Ballard. He wanted Ballard to build something similar to those 2013-17 KC teams. They were loaded with talent, had a great running game and good defense...and that they won a lot of games and made the playoffs.

 

However, KC didn't have any playoff success because they didn't have the QB in place. But Irsay had Luck. So if you could just put a team like that around him, they would have a SB contender. It was a good strategy.

 

And I do think Ballard managed to build a KC-lite roster. But even with good QB play, this team still has a ceiling of a WC team.

 

But the job going forward is very different than what it was in 2017. And even though he has drafted some talented players, I don't know how anybody could be confident that he's the guy for the job. 

 

 

 

I like your post... Well thought out too...

 

I believe Jim Irsay loves being a mentor to Chris Ballard... I think it is a legacy thing. That is what makes me believe Jim wants to keep Ballard around. However, we may have gone too far down the rabbit hole now... And Jim might see reasons to abort the mission. 

[shasta519]

15 minutes ago, DougDew said:

225 on a 6'4" frame is football skinny.  Same as Jordan Love, a QB.  He's scrappy and wiry, like a lot of skinny guys.  He's not really a big body X, and not really fast enough or agile enough to be a Z.  He's kind of a tweener, and I'm not sure that hes playing even up to his size.  No need to get all frothy over the truth.

 

I don't hate the decisions the Colts have ever made.   Just the Hooker and Nelson picks; the Leonard and Nelson resign.  The get-out-of Wentz trade,  The reliance on Hines being a talented player, the Hines resign, and the fact it took 6 years to realize Hines sucked at just about everything when I thought it was obvious after about year 2.  His success came as a result of great play calling for him and usage.

 

I hated the nepotism used in picking Fisher over Leno, then Ballard saying later out of the blue how nepotism isn't tolerated, LOL.

 

Would you feel better if I said that one pick in the top 41 over the past 5 years has earned its investment?  Ok fine.  One, but the guy is starting to fumble again like he did in college.  shhhh.

 

I can't think of a trade down that resulted in anything consequential.  I think most of the capital received by the Nelson trade has been squandered by this point.

 

What's to be positive about when you're lucky to be 4-7-1?  Everybody knows we should be worse.  I've always thought that previous years achievement's were due to excellent coaching of marginal talented roster....or a roster that had good talent cooped up in unusable positions.  But even excellent coaching has its limits...they can't work miracles.

 

I've always been fairly positive about the coaching. At least not hateful about it. 

 

The Q trade back did net one of Smith or Leonard. 

 

But Ballard has been dining out on that draft class for a very long time. And really the draft in general. Like 90% of this roster are his draft picks at this point, so there is bound to be good picks...it's the NFL. But his team is 4-7-1.

 

As for Pittman, he's basically a possession WR at this point. I don't know if it's a product of the playcalling or Ryan or Pittman. Probably all 3. But his yds/route run and yds/target are way too low for the volume of targets and scheming he gets.

 

 

[Goatface Killah]

This team absolutely has talent. They just keep shooting themselves in the foot.

 

The plan for the offseason should be....

 

 

1. Find a coach with a fresh offensive approach to the game. That can be an OC or a HC. But they need someone who can maximize the offensive talent we already have, because we do have some to work with. 

 

2. Draft a QB. I personally dont see any QBs in this class that excites me, but I feel like its time to take a swing. Ryan can maybe stay around to mentor him and provide a bridge until hes ready. It just feels like we are entering that purgatory where we are now placing our hopes on a dice roll, and thats absolutely not a good place to be. 

 

3. Get this OL back to playing good football. They played pretty well last night outside of the late sack given up by Raimann. So I dont think its out of the realm of possibility to get it together with a key addition or two.

 

People always wanna act like the team is so far off, but I just dont see that. They have literally given most of these games away with silly turnovers. The poor play on the OL is the root of that problem, because its put the offense behind the chains constantly and placed too much pressure on the QB to bail them out. That never was the plan for Matt Ryan and this offense. Its also diminished our greatest strength and made the running game wildly inconsistent. Thats hurt us as well.

[BlueShoe]

9 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

As for Pittman, he's basically a possession WR at this point. I don't know if it's a product of the playcalling or Ryan or Pittman. Probably all 3. But his yds/route run and yds/target are way too low for the volume of targets and scheming he gets.

 

I think people get confused as to what type of receiver Pittman is, and I understand why people get confused. 

 

Pittman is a zone beater, but he struggles in man coverage. Which is why the Colts move him all over the field; inside, outside, wide... When teams are playing Pittman in man, I have noticed the Colts start calling rub routes... And they usually drag Pittman across the field, hoping to break him free... 

 

It is a completely different approach from the Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne days... Both were exceptional route runners and could beat man or zone. The Colts didn't need to get creative about it. The mostly lined up in the same spots. 

[NorthernColt]

Yeah we're honestly such a mess at this point, I'm ok blowing up the entire thing. GM, Coach, gone. Let walk or trade Kelly, Moore, Yannick, Gilly, MAC.

[NorthernColt]

6 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I think people get confused as to what type of receiver Pittman is, and I understand why people get confused. 

 

Pittman is a zone beater, but he struggles in man coverage. Which is why the Colts move him all over the field; inside, outside, wide... When teams are playing Pittman in man, I have noticed the Colts start calling rub routes... And they usually drag Pittman across the field, hoping to break him free... 

 

It is a completely different approach from the Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne days... Both were exceptional route runners and could beat man or zone. The Colts didn't need to get creative about it. The mostly lined up in the same spots. 

The only play Pitt excels in against man is deep 1v1 jump balls, which he usually bullies the db and makes the play. Did it in college his whole career too. Problem is we literally call that for him like 3 times a season lol.

[DougDew]

30 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

The Q trade back did net one of Smith or Leonard. 

 

But Ballard has been dining out on that draft class for a very long time. And really the draft in general. Like 90% of this roster are his draft picks at this point, so there is bound to be good picks...it's the NFL. But his team is 4-7-1.

 

As for Pittman, he's basically a possession WR at this point. I don't know if it's a product of the playcalling or Ryan or Pittman. Probably all 3. But his yds/route run and yds/target are way too low for the volume of targets and scheming he gets.

 

 

Yeah, I didn't do a pick by pick trade back analysis, so there is bound to be some good things there.  Still, the pick started as a 3 in a 3 to 4 QB draft and all we have now is one additional player.

 

I seem to remember that Wentz looked for Pitt down field a lot more.  I firmly believe that the plays are called to suit the talent of the offense, and Ryan doesn't have the arm to throw down field when under duress like Wentz did.  I said last year that I thought Wentz probably had better pure arm talent than even Luck.  Overall, we have bad/poorly fitting combinations of talent that limits what the play callers think we can do.  They are probably right.

 

I also think the reason we run up the middle so much rather than attacking the edges is because we have JT and not a Shady Jackson.  But that's another topic.

[bluephantom87]

2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

We agree with a lot more than you might think we do. I will help you understand why...

 

I believe Greg Roman accidently opened a door for the future of the NFL... That door was taboo for many years. He dared to go through it too. However, he was given an assist by modern NFL rules. 20 years ago, there is no way an NFL could even think about running the Medieval Offense that Greg Roman has designed. The old philosophy is for the quarterback to navigate the pocket, find the open receiver, and deliver a catchable ball. That was the basics, right? A statue QB is all a team needed. 

 

Modern rules protect quarterbacks so much that they are asking for flags to be thrown any time a defensive player touches them. Hell, a defender could miss a swipe at the ball, and have his pinky graze the side of the quarterbacks helmet... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback is sacked, and a defender lays on top of him during the sack... 15 yard penalty. If a quarterback stands in the pocket and a defender hits him below the waist... 15 yard penalty. See where this is going?

 

As an offensive play designer, the rule of not being allowed to breath on a quarterback has to be included into design. If the defense drops 7 and covers everyone, then teach the quarterback to run for as many yards and then slide... By the way if the quarterback is touched in any meaningful way while sliding... You guessed it, 15 yard penalty. Now we are talking about a quarterback who is an athlete. 

 

So what you have is an offense that can run even when it is passing... We are getting closer to what the Ravens are doing...

 

The smashmouth part of the offense really comes alive when the Ravens bring in fullback Patrick Ricard. This guy is so great at his trade... I love thinking about the offensive sets I could run with Ricard as my lead blocker... I think fullbacks are going to make a strong comeback in the NFL... This is mostly due to the fact that college football is designing offenses to use fullbacks... 

 

People think that the NFL dictates philosophies to the NFL... It is the other way around... The players are coming from college... So the smart NFL coaches have learned to not force a player into a premade system... and instead build a system around the players. This has been happening for a while now, but folks regurgitate that college football is running more pro style offenses. Well, why is that? It is because they are sprinkling in more smashmouth football. Many college teams can run both spread and smashmouth. Hell, they have so many players on the rosters they need to use the same numbers several times. They have rosters that double the NFL limit of 53.

 

We are going to see more athletic quarterbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. We are going to see more fullbacks in the NFL... For the reasons I have explained. 

 

I like some of your post. Dual threat qbs will become the norm. I believe that the pocket passer is a dying breed simply because defenders are bigger, faster and more athletic. I'm simply not a fan of smashmouth football in TODAY'S nfl. I believe this is a PASSING league now and the top offenses can go over the top to score POINTS quickly.

 

The slow methodical ground and pound is a thing of the past but IF the Colts want to run it they NEED a fb. If they want to be halfway special in that run game then at a minimum they need a DYNAMIC dual threat qb to put pressure on opposing defenses. Roman didn't just open the door he actually ran this offense with C Kapernick first and one would say they had better receivers. (more possession types) That seemed so long ago.

 

Teams like the modern day Titans or said Ravens can win games with SPECIAL players like King Henry or Lamar but at the end of the can they EVEN make a SB without a passing game? I say no. The Colts with their BASIC run game can't even CONTEND for a division title in a weak south let alone a SB run. This is where we are after SIX SEASONS of Ballard with his 3yds and a cloud of dust built offense.

[shasta519]

11 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I think people get confused as to what type of receiver Pittman is, and I understand why people get confused. 

 

Pittman is a zone beater, but he struggles in man coverage. Which is why the Colts move him all over the field; inside, outside, wide... When teams are playing Pittman in man, I have noticed the Colts start calling rub routes... And they usually drag Pittman across the field, hoping to break him free... 

 

It is a completely different approach from the Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne days... Both were exceptional route runners and could beat man or zone. The Colts didn't need to get creative about it. The mostly lined up in the same spots. 

 

Yep. He is often used on rub routes to get him open. Those are a staple of his production, as well as PC. But you could find lots of WRs who can do that.

 

One issue is that Matt Ryan severely limits how they can use these WRs. But I also think they are limited in their own right, hence the need for scheming and creativity. PC only catches slants, skinny posts, drag routes. Pitt does the same but also gets used on curls and outs. And Pierce is just a jump ball hero, who has been a ghost since Ryan came back.

 

This team is still missing that Wayne/Harrison type of WR.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

The smashmouth part of the offense really comes alive when the Ravens bring in fullback Patrick Ricard. This guy is so great at his trade... I love thinking about the offensive sets I could run with Ricard as my lead blocker... I think fullbacks are going to make a strong comeback in the NFL... This is mostly due to the fact that college football is designing offenses to use fullbacks... 

Getting back to the smashmouth is the future comment.....I like having a Fullback or an H back...a lead blocker who can also catch a pass as a change up play.  

 

I think the success of smashmouth teams in the NFL is simply the result of the rest of the NFL focusing on stopping the pass, so they have a lot of pass rushing lineman and lighter LBs...sometimes like us not even carrying enough talented LBers to play 3 the entire game.

 

I think if more teams went smashmouth, defenses would re adjust pretty quickly and would shut it down a lot easier than they can shut down the K gun.

 

As far as college QBs, I see not enough actual QB talent to field successful passing attacks, so they resort to the running QB.  There will always be enough traditional passing QBs coming out of college to fund the NFL.  

 

The future that I see is that the colleges will develop so few of those, that the NFL will migrate into being a contest between the top 5 or 6 teams and the other 26 being season long game fodder for the most part.   Parity-NOT.

[Nevbot]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Getting back to the smashmouth is the future comment.....I like having a Fullback or an H back...a lead blocker who can also catch a pass as a change up play.  

 

 

Hypothetically this is exactly who Kylen Granson should be for our team.  He is pretty useless as a roster spot 

[richard pallo]

10 hours ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

This is a passing league now and the rules are setup to for that very reason. More colleges are running pro style offenses with dynamic receivers and dual threat qbs who put major pressure on defenses to stop.

 

Ground and pound is a game of yesteryear. As your very post highlighted... the 2002 Bucs. We are now over 20 YEARS from that team and that is the VERY reason why this Ballard built offense is a relic in today's NFL. It lacks EXPLOSIVE receivers and is LIMITED with explosive plays unless you count the occasional JT big run that is now coming further and further apart.

Just a little enlightenment for you.  Michigan is the number one team in the country and they play smash mouth ground and pound football.  Kentucky is the only major college football team running a pro style offense.  That has been widely reported and Will Levis is their quarterback.  He is tall,big,quick release, strong armed drop back quarterback.  He can run but he is primarily a drop back passer like Josh Allen. Those are the facts.  Just saying.

[shasta519]

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yeah, I didn't do a pick by pick trade back analysis, so there is bound to be some good things there.  Still, the pick started as a 3 in a 3 to 4 QB draft and all we have now is one additional player.

 

I seem to remember that Wentz looked for Pitt down field a lot more.  I firmly believe that the plays are called to suit the talent of the offense, and Ryan doesn't have the arm to throw down field when under duress like Wentz did.  I said last year that I thought Wentz probably had better pure arm talent than even Luck.  Overall, we have bad/poorly fitting combinations of talent that limits what the play callers think we can do.  They are probably right.

 

I also think the reason we run up the middle so much rather than attacking the edges is because we have JT and not a Shady Jackson.  But that's another topic.

 

The idea that Matt Ryan was going to save Pittman (from Wentz) and turn him into this top 10 WR was one of the funniest narratives of this offseason. 

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, Nevbot said:

 

Hypothetically this is exactly who Kylen Granson should be for our team.  He is pretty useless as a roster spot 

I agree.  He needs to learn to lead block or leave.  Even though he has had some good games in the passing game, Woods has been injured and also Ogletree looked good in preseason.  His receiving snaps should lessen as the other guys emerge.

[chad72]

13 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Just a little enlightenment for you.  Michigan is the number one team in the country and they play smash mouth ground and pound football.  Kentucky is the only major college football team running a pro style offense.  That has been widely reported and Will Levis is their quarterback.  He is tall,big,quick release, strong armed drop back quarterback.  He can run but he is primarily a drop back passer like Josh Allen. Those are the facts.  Just saying.

 

Apples and oranges. College level talent, those elite FBS schools get to hog the cream of the talent. Alabama won so many national championships churning out RB after RB with their superior OL. Means nothing to me for the NFL, where more operate on a better level playing field.