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Why A Total Rebuild Is Coming - And How We Got In This Situation


BlueShoe
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13 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Ballard wants larger body receivers who can block. Reich’s offense requires elite route runners who can fly. Who is wrong here? Both, because they were not on the same page. Ballard drafted his vision of the team. Reich installed his vision of the offense. That will never work. The playbook needs to to be built around the players. It was not. The vision needs to be shared. It was not. 
 

This team has the personnel to be a very good smashmouth team. Meaning a lot of 21 and 22 personnel sets. The team is missing a true fullback though. But that’s not too challenging to find.
 

Chris Ballard and Jeff Saturday have the same mindset. Unfortunately they are using Reich’s playbook. It’s near impossible to create a new playbook midseason. So they are screwed there. Also, I don’t think Ballard is a huge fan of hiring Jeff Saturday… So there is that too. 

I don't think there is any doubt that Frank never got the players he wanted.  I don't think smashmouth works in the NFL, especially if you marry it with a zone 43 defense.

 

The zone 43 is designed to give up yards, but stiffen with the shorter field in the RZ, forcing FGs...maybe a lot of them.  So your offense should be scoring TDs...maybe a lot of them.  That's not a characteristic of a smashmouth offense.

 

I think Frank probably knows what players he needs.  Not sure that Ballard knows how to marry offense with defense.

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

I don't think there is any doubt that Frank never got the players he wanted.  I don't think smashmouth works in the NFL, especially if you marry it with a zone 43 defense.

 

The zone 43 is designed to give up yards, but stiffen with the shorter field in the RZ, forcing FGs...maybe a lot of them.  So your offense should be scoring TDs...maybe a lot of them.  That's not a characteristic of a smashmouth offense.

 

I think Frank probably knows what players he needs.  Not sure that Ballard knows how to marry offense with defense.

 

Smashmouth still works and NFL history is littered with success of blending a 43 defense with smashmouth football. One of the most famous; the 2002 Buccaneers. The 2022 Colts are built similar. A few pieces along with a unified mindset from the front office to the coaching staff… They could become that. 
 

I believe the NFL’s future is smashmouth football. Especially with all the dual threat quarterbacks entering the league.

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I doubt a full rebuild. I’d say we are at the same point the Chiefs were before they drafted Mahomes. We’ve got a lot of talent across the roster and I don’t think there’s any reason to ship a bunch of guys off due to a new GM. We are a QB, an offensive coordinator and a LT away from being back in the playoffs. 

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31 minutes ago, CR91 said:

If I'm the colts and the bears still have the second pick, I am giving them whatever they want to get Young or Stroud

Pass on Stroud.  Honestly Young is the only QB in this class I’d feel great about getting.  With that said I expect Young to be the first QB off the board and there are going to be a lot of QB hungry teams up there so I don’t think the Colts can get him.  

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1 minute ago, twfish said:

I doubt a full rebuild. I’d say we are at the same point the Chiefs were before they drafted Mahomes. We’ve got a lot of talent across the roster and I don’t think there’s any reason to ship a bunch of guys off due to a new GM. We are a QB, an offensive coordinator and a LT away from being back in the playoffs. 


The Chiefs went to the playoffs 2 years in a row before drafting Mahomes. They moved from the mid 20’s to 10 to get him too. 

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Just now, BlueShoe said:

 

Smashmouth still works and NFL history is littered with success of blending a 43 defense with smashmouth football. One of the most famous; the 2002 Buccaneers. The 2022 Colts are built similar. A few pieces along with a unified mindset from the front office to the coaching staff… They could become that. 
 

I believe the NFL’s future is smashmouth football. Especially with all the dual threat quarterbacks entering the league.

 

This is a passing league now and the rules are setup to for that very reason. More colleges are running pro style offenses with dynamic receivers and dual threat qbs who put major pressure on defenses to stop.

 

Ground and pound is a game of yesteryear. As your very post highlighted... the 2002 Bucs. We are now over 20 YEARS from that team and that is the VERY reason why this Ballard built offense is a relic in today's NFL. It lacks EXPLOSIVE receivers and is LIMITED with explosive plays unless you count the occasional JT big run that is now coming further and further apart.

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Just now, bluephantom87 said:

 

This is a passing league now and the rules are setup to for that very reason. More colleges are running pro style offenses with dynamic receivers and dual threat qbs who put major pressure on defenses to stop.

 

Ground and pound is a game of yesteryear. As your very post highlighted... the 2002 Bucs. We are now over 20 YEARS from that team and that is the VERY reason why this Ballard built offense is a relic in today's NFL. It lacks EXPLOSIVE receivers and is LIMITED with explosive plays unless you count the occasional JT big run that is now coming further and further apart.


You and I do not agree. And we won’t. If you want to know the future of the NFL then look at what Greg Roman is doing in Baltimore. The future of the NFL is a version of that. 

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If Irsays can hire who he wants.and give full control.to Ballard & Saturday are gone. If he can't, which is more likely Saturday & Ballard both probably stay.....But Ballard stays only on the condition that Irsays will continue to walk over his head and Ballard's philosophy is no longer a option. In other words Ballards only option to stay is basically in name only and take care of smaller matters. Irsays will call  the shots on major draft picks, FA signings, and trades.

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3 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

This is a passing league now and the rules are setup to for that very reason. More colleges are running pro style offenses with dynamic receivers and dual threat qbs who put major pressure on defenses to stop.

 

Ground and pound is a game of yesteryear. As your very post highlighted... the 2002 Bucs. We are now over 20 YEARS from that team and that is the VERY reason why this Ballard built offense is a relic in today's NFL. It lacks EXPLOSIVE receivers and is LIMITED with explosive plays unless you count the occasional JT big run that is now coming further and further apart.

you try and run behind that crappy  offense line ,lol. it not Taylor fault. get LT. RG and QB  . see how well that offense does 24 points  avg per game.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

How we got here:

 

Top 37 picks over the course of 5 years:

 

C,FS,G,ILB,RT, zone corner, skinny X.

 

The C is breaking down.  The ILB has replacements drafted in the 5th round playing almost as well.  The Corner was traded to rent a pass rush specialist on a one year contract.

 

Capital simply has been deployed very inefficiently.

 

Oh, and there is no current QB or future QB within sight.

Great post

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4 hours ago, DougDew said:

How we got here:

 

Top 37 picks over the course of 5 years:

 

C,FS,G,ILB,RT, zone corner, skinny X.

 

The C is breaking down.  The ILB has replacements drafted in the 5th round playing almost as well.  The Corner was traded to rent a pass rush specialist on a one year contract.

 

Capital simply has been deployed very inefficiently.

 

Oh, and there is no current QB or future QB within sight.

Don’t forget the four second round picks at DE that never made it past backup. 

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5 hours ago, twfish said:

I doubt a full rebuild. I’d say we are at the same point the Chiefs were before they drafted Mahomes. We’ve got a lot of talent across the roster and I don’t think there’s any reason to ship a bunch of guys off due to a new GM. We are a QB, an offensive coordinator and a LT away from being back in the playoffs. 

This is exactly my thoughts, and has been my thoughts for a long while now. 

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5 minutes ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

Very long post for how when got here when we all clearly know how we did. Just a simple 4 letter word..

 

Again it's his prerogative. But at the end of the day that choice is why we are here 4 years later with no direction. 

Yep.... bad LUCK. And Irsay rewarded that goober 25 million for quitting on us 1 week before the season started.

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It could be many years till we are back in the playoffs.  It depends on how the QB position is filled.  Give up most of our picks to draft a QB we like and it could be 50/50 on whether he works out.  If he doesn't, we wait 3 years and then draft another QB and try again.   We seen many teams go through this cycle so we should be prepared for several years of bad records.  

 

However, maybe we hit with a QB on our first shot and are a playoff team in 2 years.  That would be awesome!

 

Maybe we sign another vet QB.  I'm not sure there will be a "Savior" out there for us.  Here are the free agent QB's at the end of this season.  

 

Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Teddy Bridgewater
Miami Dolphins

 

Jacoby Brissett
Cleveland Browns

 

Andy Dalton
New Orleans Saints

 

Sam Darnold
Carolina Panthers

 

Joe Flacco
New York Jets

 

Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers

 

Taylor Heinicke
Washington Commanders

 

Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens

 

Case Keenum
Buffalo Bills

 

Gardner Minshew
Philadelphia Eagles

 

Mason Rudolph
Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Cooper Rush
Dallas Cowboys

 

Geno Smith
Seattle Seahawks

 

Mike White
New York Jets

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7 hours ago, DougDew said:

How we got here:

 

Top 37 picks over the course of 5 years:

 

C,FS,G,ILB,RT, zone corner, skinny X.

 

The C is breaking down.  The ILB has replacements drafted in the 5th round playing almost as well.  The Corner was traded to rent a pass rush specialist on a one year contract.

 

Capital simply has been deployed very inefficiently.

 

Oh, and there is no current QB or future QB within sight.


Yep. This here is the true reason.

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6 hours ago, BlueShoe said:


You and I do not agree. And we won’t. If you want to know the future of the NFL then look at what Greg Roman is doing in Baltimore. The future of the NFL is a version of that. 


Sorry man!!! Most things I agree but this one I don’t, at all.
 

Moving around to still pass first is how the NFL is moving to. The mobility of future QBs will be a desirable trait moving forward and it doesn’t have to be accompanied with smash mouth football whatsoever to be successful. 
 

If an outdoor team like the Bills and Chiefs can build their Os around mobile QBs to pass first, that’s clearly the direction, IMO. Look at the Titans and Ravens who have tried the smash mouth without enough credible threats of a passing game, couldn’t get farther in the playoffs or a SB. On the other hand, Chiefs and Bengals (pretty soon the Bills too) who have chosen to go after good skill position pass catchers that fit their system, have played FA for OL, rarely use FB, have made the last 3 SBs.

 

The Patriots who hogged the SB limelight before, used stellar D and a balanced attack with pass catching slot wideouts, TEs and RBs to move the ball. Physical play in the trenches is required no matter what but it’s not the same as translating to a smash mouth style on offense being important to win at the next level. Timely passing of the ball at all levels still wins in the NFL. 
 

The Eagles are another example of building Jalen Hurts as a passer and giving him weapons to have the record they have, very much like how the Dolphins have given Tua help, including OL help.

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7 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Smashmouth still works and NFL history is littered with success of blending a 43 defense with smashmouth football. One of the most famous; the 2002 Buccaneers. The 2022 Colts are built similar. A few pieces along with a unified mindset from the front office to the coaching staff… They could become that. 
 

I believe the NFL’s future is smashmouth football. Especially with all the dual threat quarterbacks entering the league.

Along with the Rex Grossman lead Bears, those 43 zone defenses were dominating defenses though.  Same as BAL, which played a Pagano 34.  Sure, that level of defensive talent can win with a slow rolling offense, but put Ballard's defense under Flus and now Gus with a FG generating time consuming offense and I think it was a losing marriage on wedding day six years ago.  The HC can only go so far with it.

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15 minutes ago, chad72 said:


Sorry man!!! Most things I agree but this one I don’t, at all.
 

Moving around to still pass first is how the NFL is moving to. The mobility of future QBs will be a desirable trait moving forward and it doesn’t have to be accompanied with smash mouth football whatsoever to be successful. 
 

If an outdoor team like the Bills and Chiefs can build their Os around mobile QBs to pass first, that’s clearly the direction, IMO. Look at the Titans and Ravens who have tried the smash mouth without enough credible threats of a passing game, couldn’t get farther in the playoffs or a SB. On the other hand, Chiefs and Bengals (pretty soon the Bills too) who have chosen to go after good skill position pass catchers that fit their system, have played FA for OL, rarely use FB, have made the last 3 SBs.

 

The Patriots who hogged the SB limelight before, used stellar D and a balanced attack with pass catching slot wideouts, TEs and RBs to move the ball. Physical play in the trenches is required no matter what but it’s not the same as translating to a smash mouth style on offense being important to win at the next level. 


It’s okay to disagree. 
 

You and I have different opinions as to what future NFL offenses will look like. 

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42 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Yep.... bad LUCK. And Irsay rewarded that goober 25 million for quitting on us 1 week before the season started.

Yes and no. That was a very smart decision. If and this is a big IF, Luck were to EVER un retire, the colts own his rights. Meaning they get trade value at a minimum. 

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59 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Yep.... bad LUCK. And Irsay rewarded that goober 25 million for quitting on us 1 week before the season started.

The guy ruined his shoulder by snowboarding, then let the fans blame his oline and the guy who drafted him for ruining his shoulder.  Then he spent two years rehabbing the surgery that should have taken one, by visiting architecture in Europe.  Then quit right before the reason because of the need to rehab an injury that no doctor could find. 

 

Now he's pursuing his Masters Degree, so be respectful.   

 

It's Mr. Goober.

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2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The guy ruined his shoulder by snowboarding, then let the fans blame his oline and the guy who drafted him for ruining his shoulder.  Then he spent two years rehabbing an injury that should have taken one, by visiting architecture in Europe.

 

The quit right before the reason because of the need to rehab an injury that no doctor could find.  Now he's pursuing his Masters Degree.

 

Be respectful.   

 

It's Mr. Goober.

Just seeing the sights?  

He didn't do the Colts right, but I'm over Luck now.  

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44 minutes ago, Myles said:

It could be many years till we are back in the playoffs.  It depends on how the QB position is filled.  Give up most of our picks to draft a QB we like and it could be 50/50 on whether he works out.  If he doesn't, we wait 3 years and then draft another QB and try again.   We seen many teams go through this cycle so we should be prepared for several years of bad records.  

 

However, maybe we hit with a QB on our first shot and are a playoff team in 2 years.  That would be awesome!

 

Maybe we sign another vet QB.  I'm not sure there will be a "Savior" out there for us.  Here are the free agent QB's at the end of this season.  

 

Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Teddy Bridgewater
Miami Dolphins

 

Jacoby Brissett
Cleveland Browns

 

Andy Dalton
New Orleans Saints

 

Sam Darnold
Carolina Panthers

 

Joe Flacco
New York Jets

 

Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers

 

Taylor Heinicke
Washington Commanders

 

Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens

 

Case Keenum
Buffalo Bills

 

Gardner Minshew
Philadelphia Eagles

 

Mason Rudolph
Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Cooper Rush
Dallas Cowboys

 

Geno Smith
Seattle Seahawks

 

Mike White
New York Jets

 

There are a few on this list that simply would not happen.  Brady either retires or stays in Tampa, and the Ravens will ultimately end up paying Lamar.  Geno Smith is going to be locked up by someone (Depending on how high Seattle ends up drafting due to Denver), and I wouldn't be surprised if Mike White is the Jets starter next year if he continues to build off Sunday's performance. We are also seeing that Washington might retain Heineke as their guy going forward.  

I think we spend less on a bridge QB because, as we have seen, you are getting the same (arguably better) play from Brissett or Minshew.  They both actually fit what our O wants to do.  Its pretty crazy to think about, but hindsight has led me to say that the Colts team would have been better off all along just keeping Jacoby for 15-20 million per year as we continued to look for a young QB. We may even elect to just start Foles next year for the same reason.

It's going to get ugly for a few years if we don't get a high enough first round pick.  It absolutely has to be a top 10 pick, and even then, we are likely giving up next years first and another second at least to go get our guy from the 10 slot. 

 

We basically need to lose out (which is quite possible) to have a crack at a top QB this year.  Even Levis might be out of our reach.  4 wins is already likely too many to be top 5-7

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3 minutes ago, Nevbot said:

 

There are a few on this list that simply would not happen.  Brady either retires or stays in Tampa, and the Ravens will ultimately end up paying Lamar.  Geno Smith is going to be locked up by someone (Depending on how high Seattle ends up drafting due to Denver), and I wouldn't be surprised if Mike White is the Jets starter next year if he continues to build off Sunday's performance. We are also seeing that Washington might retain Heineke as their guy going forward.  

I think we spend less on a bridge QB because, as we have seen, you are getting the same (arguably better) play from Brissett or Minshew.  They both actually fit what our O wants to do.  Its pretty crazy to think about, but hindsight has led me to say that the Colts team would have been better off all along just keeping Jacoby for 15-20 million per year as we continued to look for a young QB. We may even elect to just start Foles next year for the same reason.

It's going to get ugly for a few years if we don't get a high enough first round pick.  It absotely has to be a top 10 pick, and even then, we are likely giving up next years first and another second at least to go get our guy from the 10 slot. 

 

We basically need to lose out (which is quite possible) to have a crack at a top QB this year.  Even Levis might be out of our reach.  4 wins is already likely too many to be top 5-7

I agree and thought about removing a few from the list as I don't think it is possible that the Ravens won't keep Jackson.   They may just tag him if nothing else.   I don't want another over the hill QB, but signing a Qb at or under 30 years old wouldn't be horrible.  

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So how would anyone go about this rebuild. Are we keeping our good players and shuffling the rest of the roster, or are we trading our best away with the hopes to replace their production in the draft? I don't want to see it. That would mean 3 more years of games worse than these past few months. Still an interesting talking point to see everyone's strategies. 

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1 hour ago, Nevbot said:

 

We basically need to lose out (which is quite possible) to have a crack at a top QB this year.  Even Levis might be out of our reach.  4 wins is already likely too many to be top 5-7

 

The reality is that I see just 1 win vs the Texans the rest of the way. What will 5-11-1 get us? Probably a Top 10 pick, good enough to move up.

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7 hours ago, BlueShoe said:


You and I do not agree. And we won’t. If you want to know the future of the NFL then look at what Greg Roman is doing in Baltimore. The future of the NFL is a version of that. 

 

This is a nice debate. The Ravens are a RUNNING team with a talented dual threat qb who mostly runs because he lacks adequate receivers. Lamar has won a league MVP already but there are some in his OWN building QUESTIONING whether this type of offense is sustainable long term. Outside media cry get Lamar some RECEIVING weapons and the offense would be lethal. (See what Philly has done with Hurts) The Ravens WILL NOT win a SB as currently constructed WITHOUT a passing game to COMPLIMENT their running game period! I didn't have to go back 20 years for my argument because I saw the Rams WIN a SB just last season with essentially NO run game all year.

 

The Colts run game is WAY too predictable anyway! It is BASIC by all accounts. Did you see the JT 3rd and 3 play at the end of the game with about 30 seconds left that the Steelers blew up?! EVERYONE knew that play was coming! If the Colts want to be a TRUE ground and pound then get JT a fullback as someone else said. If they want to be the Ravens good luck in finding a qb with Lamar's UNIQUE skillset as far as his dynamic running style. Oh wait a minute the Ravens moved back up into the BOTTOM of the 1st round to take him. Other teams had that SAME option if they thought RUNNING the ball was the NEW LANDSCAPE of the nfl....

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8 hours ago, DougDew said:

How we got here:

 

Top 37 picks over the course of 5 years:

 

C,FS,G,ILB,RT, zone corner, skinny X.

 

The C is breaking down.  The ILB has replacements drafted in the 5th round playing almost as well.  The Corner was traded to rent a pass rush specialist on a one year contract.

 

Capital simply has been deployed very inefficiently.

 

Oh, and there is no current QB or future QB within sight.

A skinny X? Not exactly how I would describe 6'4 225 WR whose put up good numbers with bleh QB play (the past 2 years has had incredibly similar yardage to scary terry which I'm sure you would be clamoring to have drafted), Nice of you to weirdly go top 37 when JT was the 41st pick almost like you have some sort of bias. We had 1 year left of Rocks contract so that's a wash. Wouldn't a player drafted later playing at high level be a good thing not a negative, also to discredit Leonard is laughable because he produces turnovers like no one else playing the game. Lastly the team is built up through the entire draft not just the top 37 picks, so why not look at the times we traded back and used  those picks on players.

 

However it doesn't matter who we would take or how we would play because YOU are simply a hater of every single decision the colts have ever made. We could go win the super bowl and you would be mad they didn't go undefeated. It's one thing to be critical of the team but I don't think I've ever seen a positive post come from you.

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1 hour ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Yep...that strategy worked out great!

Considering the money has no bearing on what’s going on with this team right now, sure. But could you imagine if Irsay recouped his money and then Luck 6 months later decided to pull a Tom Brady and unretire?! The outrage on here would have been unimaginable. 
 

bottom line is this, Luck retiring killed us, the money Irsay let him keep, didn’t 

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9 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The reality is that I see just 1 win vs the Texans the rest of the way. What will 5-11-1 get us? Probably a Top 10 pick, good enough to move up.

Maybe. It’s a weird year. 13 teams with worse records than us. Some have harder schedules remaining too. We might get to 10, might. 

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22 minutes ago, KB said:

So how would anyone go about this rebuild. Are we keeping our good players and shuffling the rest of the roster, or are we trading our best away with the hopes to replace their production in the draft? I don't want to see it. That would mean 3 more years of games worse than these past few months. Still an interesting talking point to see everyone's strategies. 

A team can trade skill players with top contracts because some team would see the talent as not being easily replaced.   Its harder to trade nonskill players with top contracts because teams feel they can go elsewhere to get the same level of production.  If a team thinks that Nelson or Smith or Leonard will be the key to them going from playoff team to a SB contender, then they can make the trade.  How likely is that to happen?

 

So since we are going to be stuck with our players, our "rebuild" is actually the same thing as simply continuing to rebuild around our existing players. 

 

We can't even do a blow up and rebuild correctly. 

 

Unless you just want to cut Nelson, Smith, and Leonard, but they contribute enough to keep around, IMO.   Leonard has is own problems of whether or not he can even play again, so including him in any rebuild strategy is premature, IMO.

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