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Jonathan Taylor 2022 vs 2021???


EastStreet
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Hey, thank you for reading stats and indicators, and thinking......  before offering hot takes... thanks lol. 

 

  • Interesting things 
    • Run blocking grade is better this year. Not great (#27), but better than 2021 (#42). 
    • His YBC (yards before contact) is better this year. Means OL is keeping him cleaner. He's going for 3.3 yards before contact (2022), vs 2.6 yards in 2021.
    • His juke, evaded tackle, and breakaway rate decreased.  
    • His frequency vs stacked boxes didn't increase. In fact, slightly decreased. Base D front increased a bit. Light front is about same.
  • Questions
    • If OL run blocking, is a little better, and his YBC is clearly better, why is AVGs and totals are decreasing?
    • If boxes are not more stacked, why AVGs and totals are decreasing... 
    • Why passing stats are clearly decreasing
  • Opinion
    • We've seen a few clear bad reads by JT (choosing the wrong way) on complex/zone block calls. Are we getting too cute with run calls (Reich), and too complex/cute OL blocking scheme (Strausser). Or has JT turned into a bad reader?
    • Pretty obvious to me, opponents have condensed defense (even more than  2021, already did late 2021). You don't have to stack boxes. Just keep defense 0-10 yards. Teams know what Reich will do and his tendencies. Short passes + run. No worry on deep stuff. Not a mystery. 

 


Stat                                     2022                2021
Team runs (all)                    #14                  #4

 

Running

JT Carries                             #2                    #1
JT Rush Yards                      #4                    #1
True Yards/Carry                  #19                  #7
Juke Rate                             #19                  #1
Evaded Tackles                     #8                   #1
Breakaway Rate                   #22                  #9
Yards Created                      #9                    #1
EPA                                      #104                #17

Run Block Rating                #27                  #42
Yards Before Cont               3.3                  2.6

Yards After Cont                   1.4                  2.8
Avg D in box                        #31                  #50
Stack Front Rate                  #30                 #27
Stack Front YPC                   4.6                  5.8
Base Front Rate                   #26                 #34
Base Front YPC                     3.3                  5.6
Light Front Rate                  #22                  #23
Light Front YPC                    6.0                  5.3
Shotgun Rate                      #14                  #25
Under Center Rate              #50                 #36

Stuffed Rate                        #3 (21.3%)      #1 (19.0%)

 

Passing                              2022                2021

JT Targets                            #12                   #17
JT Pass Yards                       #32                   #12
Yards/Reception                  #31                     #9
Yards/Target                         3.3                     7.1
Yards after catch                  5.5                     10.2
Drops (total, not rank)          1                        5
Passing Rating                      35.1                   109.2


Note1 - Hines is top 10 in receiving targets and yards. But stats aren't great outside of total yards given targets. 

Note2 - So obviously we're hitting more "layups"..... and O is no better. It's arguably worse. So another complaint about Wentz disappearing??? 

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Like you said, I’m pretty sure it’s because defenses are condensed. We’re not challenging that - possibly due to OL pass protection, but all our runs are up the middle as well. It’s just down to Frank Franking in my opinion. 

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12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

@Nickster interesting your take. Anything else you wanted to see?

Yeah man, when I watch film there are guys there to take him down before he gets into the open field.  Long runs are his best strength.  You know I think he’s a very limited player, and that’s starting to show.  He doesn’t bounce laterally and I am sure DCs and their nerdy minions have hammered it into tacklers heads to not over pursue like Hightower did on that game winner last year.  There’s no reason to overpursue.  He has those nice hard cuts coming at you but if you stay on his inside he’s probably not going to embarrass you jump cutting and bouncing.  If you over pursue at all he’ll leave you dusted before you even see it.


I basically just posted this in another thread.  But I’d guess study would show 2 things:

 

1.  Teams play shallower and narrower than last year.  It seems clear they are doing it this year, but one would have to look at last year to confirm it.  They are swarming him before he breaks out.  Our passing game is completely non threatening and the QB is 0 threat to hurt you running.  Ds seem to be both squeezing horizontally and compressing vertically.

 

2.  We aren’t as effective blocking downfield without Pascal and Doyle who were both plus stalk blockers.  This again limits JTs home run threat.  I bet that would be evident after hours of comparative study lol.  
 

JT looks exactly the same to me without the long runs.  He’s getting stuffed at essentially the same rate as last year 21% to 19%.

 

I predict a long one at some point this week along with a high % of stuffed runs.

 

 

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Not surprising. Was only a matter of time before the offense was going to impact JT.
 

Teams just know how to attack it, especially with Ryan at QB. I think it was @chad72 who said defenses are going to jus choke the middle. And that’s what they are doing…and will continue to do because the passing offense isn’t a threat.
 

Tossing 50/50 balls down the sideline seems like a very inefficient way to combat this. The offense just needs a makeover.

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57 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Not surprising. Was only a matter of time before the offense was going to impact JT.
 

Teams just know how to attack it, especially with Ryan at QB. I think it was @chad72 who said defenses are going to jus choke the middle. And that’s what they are doing…and will continue to do because the passing offense isn’t a threat.
 

Tossing 50/50 balls down the sideline seems like a very inefficient way to combat this. The offense just needs a makeover.


That’s why I also asked “where are those 30-40 yard passes down the sidelines to the outside shoulder of the WR that Ryan was doing in TC that hits the WR in stride?” but then the ineptitude of the OL wouldn’t give Ryan the 3-4 seconds needed for that to happen even occasionally. So now we’re down to schematic ways to reduce the choke in the middle.

 

The only way I see out of it is going max.  Protect every now and then to give Ryan the time and involvement of Hines in 2 RB formations on wheel and slant routes while matched against a slower safety or LB to get a safety or LB away from the LOS thus opening up our playbook to build off the run.

 

EVERYTHING opens up once the OL starts playing at a high level.

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4 hours ago, csmopar said:

Hmmm interesting indeed. Ask me in 3 weeks time. If he’s not rolling by mid season, I might get concerned 

I was thinking this same thing. New year new QB again. I think 3 weeks is a little small sample size so far.

 

@EastStreet Are these stats from the first 3 weeks of last year or the full year? I did not see that info noted. 

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It usually takes him a couple games to get in the groove.  I don't think he got on track last year until the Dolphins game(week 4) when they started doing all those outside runs with him out of the shotgun.  He will be fine once they adjust to how the defenses are playing him.  That and getting the passing game together.  He usually runs pretty well against the Titans so this week is a good week.   That is as long as Reich doesn't mysteriously get away from running him enough when it's obvious the defense is getting gashed. 

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The differences so far between the first 3 games of 2022 vs all of 2021  ( JT also started slow last year, IIRC)

 

Ryan has not extended plays and made some big throws like Wentz did...which hurts the ability to keep the D more honest.  Ryan is more of a system passer.

 

JT has simply not broken off any big runs...or had a big day like he did vs the Jets last year.  Both of which tends to pad stats and skew them relative to measuring more normal performances.

 

But yeas, defenses have figured out how to defend the offense since about the AZ game last year,   A difference from mid season last year when JT was just heating up after a slow start.

 

 

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6 hours ago, strt182 said:

I was thinking this same thing. New year new QB again. I think 3 weeks is a little small sample size so far.

 

@EastStreet Are these stats from the first 3 weeks of last year or the full year? I did not see that info noted. 

Full 2021, and our all games from 2022. 

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8 hours ago, Nickster said:

Yeah man, when I watch film there are guys there to take him down before he gets into the open field.  Long runs are his best strength.  You know I think he’s a very limited player, and that’s starting to show.  He doesn’t bounce laterally and I am sure DCs and their nerdy minions have hammered it into tacklers heads to not over pursue like Hightower did on that game winner last year.  There’s no reason to overpursue.  He has those nice hard cuts coming at you but if you stay on his inside he’s probably not going to embarrass you jump cutting and bouncing.  If you over pursue at all he’ll leave you dusted before you even see it.


I basically just posted this in another thread.  But I’d guess study would show 2 things:

 

1.  Teams play shallower and narrower than last year.  It seems clear they are doing it this year, but one would have to look at last year to confirm it.  They are swarming him before he breaks out.  Our passing game is completely non threatening and the QB is 0 threat to hurt you running.  Ds seem to be both squeezing horizontally and compressing vertically.

 

2.  We aren’t as effective blocking downfield without Pascal and Doyle who were both plus stalk blockers.  This again limits JTs home run threat.  I bet that would be evident after hours of comparative study lol.  
 

JT looks exactly the same to me without the long runs.  He’s getting stuffed at essentially the same rate as last year 21% to 19%.

 

I predict a long one at some point this week along with a high % of stuffed runs.

 

I just answered in other thread... but really nothing about blocking.

It's opponent Ds going short. Making 0-10 super condensed. Passing and run lanes congested.

They know how to defend vs Reich. Reich will not adjust. 

 

JT is great. Defenses have adjusted. Reich will not. That's a coach problem. 

OL, aside Pinter, is doing fine in run blocking. Keeping JT cleaner farther than 2021. 

Until Reich changes, and teams respect 10+ yards, we'll see the same stuff. 

 

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11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I just answered in other thread... but really nothing about blocking.

It's opponent Ds going short. Making 0-10 super condensed. Passing and run lanes congested.

They know how to defend vs Reich. Reich will not adjust. 

 

JT is great. Defenses have adjusted. Reich will not. That's a coach problem. 

OL, aside Pinter, is doing fine in run blocking. Keeping JT cleaner farther than 2021. 

Until Reich changes, and teams respect 10+ yards, we'll see the same stuff. 

 

Yeah we got all these plus pass catchers that make dcs pee down their legs that Reich keeps in the stable huge?

 

 JTs a dangerous back who is limited with lateral movement. It’s obvious when you watch and his combine results are right in line with that.

 

we gotta turn these day 3 studs loose Frank!!!!!!!  Ryan’s gonna scramble around till they get open too lol.

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8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Not surprising. Was only a matter of time before the offense was going to impact JT.
 

Teams just know how to attack it, especially with Ryan at QB. I think it was @chad72 who said defenses are going to jus choke the middle. And that’s what they are doing…and will continue to do because the passing offense isn’t a threat.
 

Tossing 50/50 balls down the sideline seems like a very inefficient way to combat this. The offense just needs a makeover.

50/50s are part of the modern NFL offense. 

It's why good Ds send big (6-3+) and speedy WRs go long.

Not really inefficient with a 6-4 guy (like Pitt) or 6-3 guy (Pierce), going vs a 6-0 or 6-1 DB.

 

Shouldn't all be 50/50s though. Need intermediate/deep slants, and better intermediate/deep route combos. 

 

7 hours ago, chad72 said:


That’s why I also asked “where are those 30-40 yard passes down the sidelines to the outside shoulder of the WR that Ryan was doing in TC that hits the WR in stride?” but then the ineptitude of the OL wouldn’t give Ryan the 3-4 seconds needed for that to happen even occasionally. So now we’re down to schematic ways to reduce the choke in the middle.

 

The only way I see out of it is going max.  Protect every now and then to give Ryan the time and involvement of Hines in 2 RB formations on wheel and slant routes while matched against a slower safety or LB to get a safety or LB away from the LOS thus opening up our playbook to build off the run.

 

EVERYTHING opens up once the OL starts playing at a high level.

 

No need to scapegoat the OL. We had 3 guys with great pass pro grades (Q 85, Pryor 84, Smith 79) last game. Smith did better, but still can still be even better. 

 

Predictability is our worse enemy. Opponents know what we're doing. 

 

34 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Oline has not been blocking great and teams don't respect our passing game, they just key on JT. Its pretty simple.

They aren't really keying JT. The Ds are just being shallow (both pass and run). 

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9 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah we got all these plus pass catchers that make dcs pee down their legs that Reich keeps in the stable huge?

 

 JTs a dangerous back who is limited with lateral movement. It’s obvious when you watch and his combine results are right in line with that.

 

we gotta turn these day 3 studs loose Frank!!!!!!!  Ryan’s gonna scramble around till they get open too lol.

Our predictable shallow and possession passing scheme simply sucks. 

Makes it harder on OL, QB, WR, and RB... 

I feel sorry for O roster... 

 

Absolutely believe our players would look totally different with a guy like Pederson. We see what Pederson's changes did for Jax, and our roster is better. 

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Our predictable shallow and possession passing scheme simply sucks. 

Makes it harder on OL, QB, WR, and RB... 

I feel sorry for O roster... 

 

Absolutely believe our players would look totally different with a guy like Pederson. We see what Pederson's changes did for Jax, and our roster is better. 

I think there is and has been a lot of overestimation of Colts’ talent.  And it seems patently obvious that our wr and te units are undertalented.  I don’t know how you think we are going to get the ball down field with a middle aged QB behind a porous oline either.

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7 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I think there is and has been a lot of overestimation of Colts’ talent.  And it seems patently obvious that our wr and te units are undertalented.  I don’t know how you think we are going to get the ball down field with a middle aged QB behind a porous oline either.

 

Sorry disagree. Our coach sucks. Our O scheme sucks. Our play calls suck. Our personnel utilization sucks. 

Plenty of examples of all of those. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I think there is and has been a lot of overestimation of Colts’ talent.  And it seems patently obvious that our wr and te units are undertalented.  I don’t know how you think we are going to get the ball down field with a middle aged QB behind a porous oline either.

I wouldn't say undertalented i would say UNPROVEN. 

 

I also agree with EastStreet that some play calling is predictable but i think we start seeing some different things on O. Its week 4 so i think if the Oline is what it should be then we should be ok.  I don't know the Colts' playbook so i ca'tn say how good or bad it is but I think some of the WR could be used alot better. 

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30 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Sorry disagree. Our coach sucks. Our O scheme sucks. Our play calls suck. Our personnel utilization sucks. 

Plenty of examples of all of those. 

 

Well JT didnt get worse. and Hines didnt change either...

so the simple solution to me is this, teams have had more time to figure out how to stop our offense. and they have figured it out for sure. 

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53 minutes ago, strt182 said:

I wouldn't say undertalented i would say UNPROVEN. 

 

I also agree with EastStreet that some play calling is predictable but i think we start seeing some different things on O. Its week 4 so i think if the Oline is what it should be then we should be ok.  I don't know the Colts' playbook so i ca'tn say how good or bad it is but I think some of the WR could be used alot better. 

 

Like when we toss the scripts, and let Ryan plays... and does well.

Or like when let Dulin play slot and get early reads... and he plays well.

Or what happens when we allow Pierce do things he did good in college... and he does well. 

Or when we allow OL go power/man, and Q mows over guys while run blocking... 

 

We're all our own worse enemy.... 

 

31 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

Well JT didnt get worse. and Hines didnt change either...

so the simple solution to me is this, teams have had more time to figure out how to stop our offense. and they have figured it out for sure. 

 

Opponent Ds would be foolish to change until Reich changes... 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Nickster said:

I think there is and has been a lot of overestimation of Colts’ talent.  And it seems patently obvious that our wr and te units are undertalented.  I don’t know how you think we are going to get the ball down field with a middle aged QB behind a porous oline either.

Jelani Woods will be good

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35 minutes ago, Imafan said:

Something is wrong with Taylor. I'm 47 and fat and could run for better than 2 yards per carry. He looks awful.

Not behind this Oline run blocking you couldn’t

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7 hours ago, Thunderbolt said:

I feel for JT! It’s the Oline  that’s to blame these overpaid, underachieving, overrated bums need to step up now!

Yep...and he is playing hurt and trying to tough it out...he is a warrior playing behind overpaid bums.

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Maybe if the guy calling the plays wasn’t telegraphing every single run??? 
If I can predict 90% of the time that Taylor will run the ball, won’t 100% of the Defensive coordinators be able to do it? Which means the D is run blitzing constantly and there are NO lanes and no space.  Which means Taylor can’t find any room to run. And thus, the run game is getting stuffed. 
I don’t think Taylor has suddenly lost his mojo. He just has no chance since the NFL figured out how to stop the Colt’s offense. 

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I’m starting to side with @Nickster on JT. He’s not a bad RB. AT ALL. But, he’s a downhill RB and I honestly think he could benefit from a twitchy ankle breaker type RB as a 1-2 punch. A guy who could make those outside runs. No, Hines isn’t that guy.

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9 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I’m starting to side with @Nickster on JT. He’s not a bad RB. AT ALL. But, he’s a downhill RB and I honestly think he could benefit from a twitchy ankle breaker type RB as a 1-2 punch. A guy who could make those outside runs. No, Hines isn’t that guy.

 

Sorry, that's silly...

 

Last season... #1 juke rate and #1 in evaded tackles.... 

 

I agree to an extent he's not a super dancer, but we don't need that anyway. He can dance well enough. You are not #1 in juke rate, that's plenty....

 

This is two things....

1. Opponents defend us shallow. They don't need to stack boxes. They just need to stay 0-10... 

2. horrible calls, and totally predictable....

 

#1 is a product of #2...

It's a coach thing. It's not a JT thing. 

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Sorry, that's silly...

 

Last season... #1 juke rate and #1 in evaded tackles.... 

 

I agree to an extent he's not a super dancer, but we don't need that anyway. He can dance well enough. You are not #1 in juke rate, that's plenty....

 

This is two things....

1. Opponents defend us shallow. They don't need to stack boxes. They just need to stay 0-10... 

2. horrible calls, and totally predictable....

 

#1 is a product of #2...

It's a coach thing. It's not a JT thing. 

Sure, but he’s never been an outside the tackles kind of RB to my knowledge? I know Frank hasn’t used him like that, but are we even sure he could do thay?

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14 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Sure, but he’s never been an outside the tackles kind of RB to my knowledge? I know Frank hasn’t used him like that, but are we even sure he could do thay?

 

He ran plenty over T and also wide, last year. 

 

IIRC, JT had like 70 carries going left, either over T or wide. And another 40-50 to over RT or wide. 

 

But I will say this... a lot of those were JT changing run direction, or bouncing it out. Not sure how many are actually called by Reich. Regardless, JT was good outside. 

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On 10/3/2022 at 9:35 AM, Solid84 said:

I’m starting to side with @Nickster on JT. He’s not a bad RB. AT ALL. But, he’s a downhill RB and I honestly think he could benefit from a twitchy ankle breaker type RB as a 1-2 punch. A guy who could make those outside runs. No, Hines isn’t that guy.

You would be also siding with me.  Our RBs are the same straight ahead running RB, they just get smaller as we move down the depth chart...from JT, to Hines, to Lindsay.  If you watched a few plays, you'll notice that Hines changes direction quickly by spinning, because he tends to lose his balance if he cuts too quickly (but he often loses his balance when he spins anyway)

 

Its interesting how the cool kids want to blame somebody other than the RB for when the RB runs into a pile.  Of course, sometimes its unavoidable, but most good RBs try not to run into a pile.  I've watched football for 45 years.  Can't keep up with the number of times I heard a color commentator say "The RB bounced it outside and gained 10 yards".  I don't think I've ever seen JT bounce it to the corner on his own when he detects a pile brewing at the LOS.

 

But people choose to blame who they want, because it serves to validate long standing opinions. 

 

A few years ago, we had a RB named TRich, who was notorious for running into the pile or missing the hole.  They blamed him, not the play caller of Chud or the HC Pags...LOL. 

 

BUT, the reason they blamed the RB himself was not really because it was accurate, they simple chose to be accurate in that case because blaming the RB was a route to blaming the GM who traded a first round pick for him...in that case Ryan Grigson.  

 

But some won't accurately blame JT, because then it might deflect blame away from Frank.

 

 

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

You would be also siding with me.  Our RBs are the same straight ahead running RB, they just get smaller as we move down the depth chart...from JT, to Hines, to Lindsay.  If you watched a few plays, you'll notice that Hines changes direction quickly by spinning, because he tends to lose his balance if he cuts too quickly (but he often loses his balance when he spins anyway)

 

Its interesting how the cool kids want to blame somebody other than the RB for when the RB runs into a pile.  Of course, sometimes its unavoidable, but most good RBs try not to run into a pile.  I've watched football for 45 years.  Can't keep up with the number of times I heard a color commentator say "The RB bounced it outside and gained 10 yards".  I don't think I've ever seen JT bounce it to the corner on his own when he detects a pile brewing at the LOS.

 

But people choose to blame who they want, because it serves to validate long standing opinions. 

 

A few years ago, we had a RB named TRich, who was notorious for running into the pile or missing the hole.  They blamed him, not the play caller of Chud or the HC Pags...LOL. 

 

BUT, the reason they blamed the RB himself was not really because it was accurate, they simple chose to be accurate in that case because blaming the RB was a route to blaming the GM who traded a first round pick for him...in that case Ryan Grigson.  

 

But some won't accurately blame JT, because then it might deflect blame away from Frank.

 

 

I’ll be clear and say I think JT is the best RB we’ve had since Edge. 
 

I do however think JT has regressed a bit and makes some of the same mental errors he did his rookie year. Add on to that I feel we’re playing finesse football with an Oline that’s build to bully any Dline. 
 

It’s on JT, the Oline AND coaching in my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I’ll be clear and say I think JT is the best RB we’ve had since Edge. 
 

I do however think JT has regressed a bit and makes some of the same mental errors he did his rookie year. Add on to that I feel we’re playing finesse football with an Oline that’s build to bully any Dline. 
 

It’s on JT, the Oline AND coaching in my opinion. 

JT is good, but he is different than Edge and would not run the stretch play like Edge did.  Also, Edge did not run between the tackles much, except on draw plays and delayed handoffs..short yardage, IIRC. 

 

Back then, we had the athletic oline for pass blocking and finessing the stretch play.  I'm not sure if we are supposed to have an athletic oline or a power oline now for running between the OTs.  I hope somebody in the FO knows what we're supposed to have.

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3 hours ago, DougDew said:

You would be also siding with me.  Our RBs are the same straight ahead running RB, they just get smaller as we move down the depth chart...from JT, to Hines, to Lindsay.  If you watched a few plays, you'll notice that Hines changes direction quickly by spinning, because he tends to lose his balance if he cuts too quickly (but he often loses his balance when he spins anyway)

 

Its interesting how the cool kids want to blame somebody other than the RB for when the RB runs into a pile.  Of course, sometimes its unavoidable, but most good RBs try not to run into a pile.  I've watched football for 45 years.  Can't keep up with the number of times I heard a color commentator say "The RB bounced it outside and gained 10 yards".  I don't think I've ever seen JT bounce it to the corner on his own when he detects a pile brewing at the LOS.

 

But people choose to blame who they want, because it serves to validate long standing opinions. 

 

A few years ago, we had a RB named TRich, who was notorious for running into the pile or missing the hole.  They blamed him, not the play caller of Chud or the HC Pags...LOL. 

 

BUT, the reason they blamed the RB himself was not really because it was accurate, they simple chose to be accurate in that case because blaming the RB was a route to blaming the GM who traded a first round pick for him...in that case Ryan Grigson.  

 

But some won't accurately blame JT, because then it might deflect blame away from Frank.

 

 

 

JT doesn't bounce.  He'e poor running laterally.  He is a between the tackles downhill runner.  Generally he gains yardage outside only when the play has been walled off by the blockers.


That TD by Henry is a perfect example of JT's limitations.  JT goes nowhere there, Henry bounces outside laterally at his size for the score.  


JT has burst Henry doesn't have, but Taylor is about as dependent on clear holes at the LOS as any really good to great RB is or has ever been. 

 

Been saying it since he came into the league.  I think Taylor would thrive with Read Option QB reading the ends.

Dougie, some of the same cool kids who were like me advocating for Taylor running downhill are now wanting him to run stretches and sweeps lol.  Funny that. 

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