Matt Ryan prediction

[shasta519]

6 hours ago, FanOutOfTown said:

Really bad take my guy. I’d count 8 or 9 really great seasons. Now if you said he’s no longer that guy physically then I would agree. To say he was average or worse most of his career is just ignorant.

I agree that Ryan has been better than that, but 8-9 really great seasons?
 

It’s more like 1 incredible season, two excellent seasons…and a bunch of decent seasons that usually had high passing volume and yardage.

 

He has a shot at the HOF though. 

 

But you could see last season that his skills were declining, but nearly everybody pretended they weren’t seeing it.

[IndySouthsider]

37 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

He was going to start Tolzien that season, until Edelman tore his ACL during preseason and NE had to scramble to trade for a WR. If they don’t call IND, there is no way JB ends up here. It was just pure circumstance. 
 

And Ryan was too.

He did start him. It looked a lot like yesterday.

[shasta519]

14 minutes ago, IndySouthsider said:

He did start him. It looked a lot like yesterday.

 

What I meant was that Tolzien was plan A for that season. If the JB trade doesn't fall in their laps in late August, we would have gotten multiple games of Tolzien, at least until he got an "injury" and was forced to IR.

[throwing BBZ]

58 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

He was going to start Tolzien that season, until Edelman tore his ACL during preseason and NE had to scramble to trade for a WR. If they don’t call IND, there is no way JB ends up here. It was just pure circumstance. 
 

And Ryan was too.

 

 The fat contract they gave Brissett was nutts. 

  We need a miracle. Unfortunately,  a 5 win season, and what that should mean, looks like our best path.

[Blueblazes]

8 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Well, since most QBs are judged on how well they pass the ball -- it seems pretty logical to use a metric which measures their effectiveness of passing as a way to gauge if a QB is average or not.  And out of all the QBs who have played in the passing era (or at any other point in NFL history), Matt Ryan is 2nd fastest (behind Drew Brees, in front of Peyton Manning) to get to 60k (a huge milestone).  That's pretty impressive.

 

It seems like you're one of the types who arguing with is pointless... but since you stated " Except for 2 seasons out of his 14 seasons, he was average or worse."  Maybe you should be clear about what 'average or worse is'... because if we're going by pro bowl selections as a metric suggesting a player is 'above average' or 'very good' at their position, Matt Ryan has made 4 of them (making you wrong already).  

 

Matt Ryan has the most regular season wins in his first 5 seasons in the league out of any QB in league history (56, tied with Russell Wilson)... he led his team to records of 11-5, 9-5, 13-3, 10-6, 13-3 during that time in games he started... so if winning is what we should judge QBs on, I'd say he was better than average more than 2x in just his first 5 seasons. 

 

He's got the most passing yards in his first 10 (and 11, 12, 13, and 14) years of any QB in league history... and the most completions of any QB in his first 7 (and 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14) years in league history... so even if we're not going just by yards, but also going by completions... I think it's safe to say he was probably above average in more than 2 of his seasons..

 

He's definitely been in the top half (above average) QBs in the league in TDs in a season at least 10 times.  He threw for 4000+ yards (typically well above average) 10 years in a row. 

 

He's 9th all-time with a 65.5% completion rate... he's well above average all time there (not just among his peers).  He's also 9th all-time in TDs.  He's 8th all-time in yards.  He's 7th all-time in passes completed.  

 

Sorry, but one simply does not become top 10 all-time in 4 primary categories of metrics used to judge QBs, if he's an average or below-average QB for over 85% of his career (like you suggest).  Think about how many QBs have played during the passing era -- he's better than almost all of them (and all those ahead of him are already in or will be in the HOF).  

 

Not sure how many more categories you'd like to go through, but you should probably just admit that your statement that Matt Ryan has only been good for 2 years out of his 14+ in the NFL is wrong.  The guy is a lock for the Hall of Fame, one of the all-time greats, and he's been above average in the vast majority of his seasons within the NFL.

As I stated, take away his best 3 years and his average passer rank is 14.5 out of 32 starting QBs. So technically average would be 15-17, so maybe he made above average by 0.5 ranking. Meh.

[shasta519]

5 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 The fat contract they gave Brissett was nutts. 

  We need a miracle. Unfortunately,  a 5 win season, and what that should mean, looks like our best path.

 

It was crazy. For someone as disciplined as Ballard, it was a lot of money to just give to a QB of that caliber. But they thought they could motivate JB into a legit franchise QB.

 

That was really when I began to question Ballard's approach at QB.

 

The "miracle" at this point would be to somehow be in position to get one of the top 3 QB prospects. There is talent on this team, so it would be more of a retooling then a rebuilding.

 

Even though it would suck to watch bad football for this year and (likely) next, there would be hope. It's a lot more fun to lose and be excited about the future, than to lose and not see a path forward.

[Blueblazes]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

I agree that Ryan has been better than that, but 8-9 really great seasons?
 

It’s more like 1 incredible season, two excellent seasons…and a bunch of decent seasons that usually had high passing volume and yardage.

 

He has a shot at the HOF though. 

 

But you could see last season that his skills were declining, but nearly everybody pretended they weren’t seeing it.

Ding, ding, ding, we have an impartial take on Ryan. Excellent.

[CurBeatElite]

21 minutes ago, Blueblazes said:

As I stated, take away his best 3 years and his average passer rank is 14.5 out of 32 starting QBs. So technically average would be 15-17, so maybe he made above average by 0.5 ranking. Meh.

 

You stated he was only above average 2 years.  Now you're changing to 3... and if you're going to take away his 3 best years, you ought to also take away his 3 worst years, which would likely bump him into the top 10.  

 

I also have no idea how you're coming up with those stats -- 14.5 out of 32 starting QBs -- that's against the 32 starting QB's today's passer rank or against QBs from what year?  

 

As I stated, you seem like the kind of poster not worth arguing with... so we can be done here.  Let's just agree that Matt Ryan will be in the HOF 5 or 6 years after he retires and have a nice week.

[coltsva]

16 hours ago, richard pallo said:

The only way Sam plays is after we are officially eliminated.  Too many home games left to sell tickets for.  Remember it’s a business and playing Sam is a signal we are tanking.  Forget about Sam for now.

I think the opposite would happen, at least initially. Not saying Sam should start now. But, if the Colts start 0-3-1, losing at home to KC & Tenn, the only way they will keep the fans engaged and put seats in the stands (Colts fans, that is), would be to start Sam. It would be sending a message to everyone "Okay, we're done with the retreads. It didn't work. We're changing direction and seeing what we got with the kid." 

[shasta519]

13 minutes ago, Blueblazes said:

Ding, ding, ding, we have an impartial take on Ryan. Excellent.

 

I have been objective about Ryan since the trade and was largely disagreed with by most here.

 

I still can't believe how much hype he got this offseason.

 

But I just don't think the QB situation gets better until they draft one.

 

 

[Blueblazes]

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I have been objective about Ryan since the trade and was largely disagreed with by most here.

 

I still can't believe how much hype he got this offseason.

 

But I just don't think the QB situation gets better until they draft one.

 

 

So true. 

[MPStack]

43 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 The fat contract they gave Brissett was nutts. 

  We need a miracle. Unfortunately,  a 5 win season, and what that should mean, looks like our best path.

And signed Rivers! 
 

Colts could’ve possibly moved from 14 to 6 for Herbert. 

[RollerColt]

6 minutes ago, MPStack said:

And signed Rivers! 
 

Colts could’ve possibly moved from 14 to 6 for Herbert. 

We painted ourselves into a corner honestly. Ballard and Reich have together brought in familiar QBs who they thought would fit the schemes and be ready to go day 1. They did it with Rivers and Wentz. Ryan was the anomaly. These were all supposed to be the "safe" routes and not even a gamble. And we still lost. 

[coming on strong]

Signing a 37 year old qb with horrible stats last year was not the best option should kept wentz one more year 

[Rhodelesstraveled]

Wentz wasnt the problem.  I said it all off season, it is the pass blocking of the OL.  They are bad and that includes Q.  

 

Q is very vg in pass blocking.  They can run block but that is it.  

 

I think they need a complete rebuild on the OL and DL and I would trade Buckner and Q this offseason to send the message mediocre is not good enough here.  

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

We painted ourselves into a corner honestly. Ballard and Reich have together brought in familiar QBs who they thought would fit the schemes and be ready to go day 1. They did it with Rivers and Wentz. Ryan was the anomaly. These were all supposed to be the "safe" routes and not even a gamble. And we still lost. 

“safe” and cheaper option for win now mode. 
 

Instead of giving up some draft capital in order to potentially secure the most important position. 
 

[chad72]

35 minutes ago, Blueblazes said:

Ding, ding, ding, we have an impartial take on Ryan. Excellent.

Like Drew Brees, his yardage numbers were accomplished in years with his D putting him in trailing situations. Remember when we all gave Brees’ 7-9 seasons a pass with his D in shambles?? Ryan was no different but his arm was better then, IMO. We’re truly getting a QB in his home stretch, I feel.

[skerfalcon8710]

10 hours ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Rivers was not this bad.

Either was the line and WR Play. 

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, Rhodelesstraveled said:

Wentz wasnt the problem.  I said it all off season, it is the pass blocking of the OL.  They are bad and that includes Q.  

 

Q is very vg in pass blocking.  They can run block but that is it.  

 

I think they need a complete rebuild on the OL and DL and I would trade Buckner and Q this offseason to send the message mediocre is not good enough here.  

Its like being impatient with a stock because it didn’t give you results within a year and bail on it without seeing the big picture.

 

Irsay taking Wentz personally has us in this situation. Again I hope Matt Ryan has more left in him than we all have seen so far.

[Rhodelesstraveled]

ATL is 0-2 but they look way better this yr than they did with Ryan the last three years

[MPStack]

27 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

Signing a 37 year old qb with horrible stats last year was not the best option should kept wentz one more year 

Wentz is…..

 

[coming on strong]

32 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Wentz is…..

 

I’m not saying he is good but I would take him now over Ryan .  We are in trouble either way . Ryan is a statue with no arm strength 

[MPStack]

Just now, coming on strong said:

I’m not saying he is good but I would take him now over Ryan .  We are in trouble either way . Ryan is a statue with no arm strength 

I would’ve preferred Wentz another year, but it’s clear WAS has a much better receiver core than the Colts. 

[coming on strong]

Just now, MPStack said:

I would’ve preferred Wentz another year, but it’s clear WAS has a much better receiver core than the Colts. 

So that was my point last year I said wentz stunk but he had no protection or wrs . It would of been better to get a free agent wr to pair with Pittman and let the season play out 

[Blueblazes]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Like Drew Brees, his yardage numbers were accomplished in years with his D putting him in trailing situations. Remember when we all gave Brees’ 7-9 seasons a pass with his D in shambles?? Ryan was no different but his arm was better then, IMO. We’re truly getting a QB in his home stretch, I feel.

Another winner. So true.

[MPStack]

Just now, coming on strong said:

So that was my point last year I said wentz stunk but he had no protection or wrs . It would of been better to get a free agent wr to pair with Pittman and let the season play out 

Like Jax did?

 

[chad72]

9 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Like Jax did?

 

 

Only DaVante Adams and Tyreek Hill were worth much in FA. We were not going to overpay for Kirk. However, I do think we could have made a move for Julio Jones, Cedric Wilson or the speedster Byron Pringle that I still like at their currently signed price points. 1 FA would have given us someone with experience that would reduce reliance on inexperienced or rookie WRs, especially if we knew we were not going to re-sign TY. Let us face it, $8-10 mil. was the range for established WRs with $15 mil. at least for guys like Kirk and Allen Robinson and that is the reality of FA.

[TheShadow]

19 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

His best WR was an undrafted guy from Malone and his WR2 was a 7th round pick from Charleston. His top TE was an undrafted guy who hasn't done much of anything in the NFL.

 

Couple that with a porous o-line.. did we expect him to look good?

The colts knew when the got Ryan, he was not a running QB. They knew that the OL would be key to his success. I am sure Ryan heard before he came here how great the OL with 3 AllPros on it would be.  Well, the Falcons OL that has been at the bottom of the league for years play much better today then our OL. Our line needs alot more motivation, toughness, and play calling then what they have.

[chad72]

21 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

I’m not saying he is good but I would take him now over Ryan .  We are in trouble either way . Ryan is a statue with no arm strength 

 

He is good, we just wanted him to be very good or great, and were not willing to temper expectations. Irsay then poured gasoline on that personal fire. Wentz was in a no-win situation, Frank was too because I am sure he wanted another year. If the Titans could go to the AFCCG with Ryan Tannehill and a good run game support bolstering their opportunistic D and good OL, we could have done that with Wentz too. 

[MPStack]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Only DaVante Adams and Tyreek Hill were worth much in FA. We were not going to overpay for Kirk. However, I do think we could have made a move for Julio Jones, Cedric Wilson or the speedster Byron Pringle that I still like at their currently signed price points. 1 FA would have given us someone with experience that would reduce reliance on inexperienced or rookie WRs, especially if we knew we were not going to re-sign TY.

Classic Ballard.

 

Don’t overpay/sign big name FAs and sign tier 3 guys or players in the twilight of their careers. 
 

 

[coming on strong]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

He is good, we just wanted him to be very good or great, and were not willing to temper expectations. Irsay then poured gasoline on that personal fire. Wentz was in a no-win situation, Frank was too because I am sure he wanted another year.

He had games last year he flat out stunk it up in .  It’s hard to judge because if you look at even Mahomes without weapons when we played him in 2019 he stunk too .  It’s better to try and fix the team around him instead of trading him for a washed Matt Ryan .   Just swapping those two QBs without upgrading the weapons or pass protection makes no sense .  

[TheShadow]

17 hours ago, Happy2BeHere said:

The entire team top to bottom including staff is a total dumpster fire!

This week they sure as H..L were!

[stitches]

Moving on from Wentz was the right decision. Not addressing our future at QB in the last 3 years after Luck retired is the bad decision here. 

[chad72]

3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

I agree that Ryan has been better than that, but 8-9 really great seasons?
 

It’s more like 1 incredible season, two excellent seasons…and a bunch of decent seasons that usually had high passing volume and yardage.

 

He has a shot at the HOF though. 

 

But you could see last season that his skills were declining, but nearly everybody pretended they weren’t seeing it.

 

Well, it tells you something if the Falcons were willing to eat $40 mil. in cap space for letting go of Ryan to see how they could fare with a different QB with pretty much Julio Jones and Russell Gage gone to the Bucs. Hate to say it, they have been downright competitive and good with Mariota who is no different than Wentz, good but not very good or great.

[TheShadow]

11 hours ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Rivers was not this bad.

I think he also had a better OL

[shasta519]

5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Well, it tells you something if the Falcons were willing to eat $40 mil. in cap space for letting go of Ryan to see how they could fare with a different QB with pretty much Julio Jones and Russell Gage gone to the Bucs. Hate to say it, they have been downright competitive and good with Mariota who is no different than Wentz, good but not very good or great.

 

Mariota isn't great, but I don't think this offense would be any worse. Doing the aging pocket passer with declining arm strength thing once was enough. But they doubled-down on it.

[BigO]

The offensive line is overpaid and overrated plus I think the OL coach is not very good. Every team in the league is going to do what Jacksonville did. Blitz and play man on our inexperienced receivers. Ryan has not been good since his super bowl loss. He has no mobility and his arm strength is not very good. Signing Ryan and using Pryor at LT with saying he likes our WR receiver room are all mistakes by Ballard. The colts need to clean house starting at the top.

[Nickster]

15 hours ago, csmopar said:

He barely came off the turf that last sack. Reminded me of that scene from “Friday night lights”

 

Reno Hightower v. Bakersfield in high school.  

 

Aikman's hominy hominy hominy commercials. 

[chad72]

22 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

He had games last year he flat out stunk it up in .  It’s hard to judge because if you look at even Mahomes without weapons when we played him in 2019 he stunk too .  It’s better to try and fix the team around him instead of trading him for a washed Matt Ryan .   Just swapping those two QBs without upgrading the weapons or pass protection makes no sense .  

 

Exactly!!! It does not feel like an upgrade except a feel good story for Irsay and everyone because of Matt Ryan's reputation that was from a few years ago. Let us face it, Frank Reich is not Kyle Shanahan w.r.t play calling and our offensive skill position talent is underwhelming.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, coming on strong said:

Signing a 37 year old qb with horrible stats last year was not the best option should kept wentz one more year 

I was a Wentz supporter through most of last season, but when he failed to dump it off to JT on several obvious situations I thought he was a hero baller who simply looks down field all of the time.  And since Pitt was our only viable down field option, he got most of the looks.  That just wasn't going to work in IND.

 

That works in WAS, where they have Dotson, McLaurin, and Samuel; so he doesn't have to look for the RB like he did here.  Wentz is in a better spot for him.