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Please no more Jordan Love type talk


lennymoore24
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For all of you who were screaming about the Colts taking Jordan Love a few drafts back, please never do that again.  I get so tired of hearing the Colts HAVE to draft a QB and guys like Jordan Love have all this potential.  So, how would Chris Ballard and Frank Reich look now if he was our QB?  Would they even still be here?  Please understand a golden rule. Picking a QB in the first round doesn't guarantee a franchise QB.  In fact, more times than not, the player is a bust.  To get a real "franchise" QB, the Colts are going to have to luck into an Andrew Luck type by either being terrible, trading many draft picks to move up, or get lucky and find a sleeper.  And I diagree with guys like Kevin who say the Colts HAVE to pick a QB in the next years draft. I think Ryan will play 4 years at a high level So it wouldn't make sense. I would rather the Colts either have the #1 pick with an Andrew Luck player there OR pick someone in the 2nd/3rd round and get lucky with that person.  But please no more Jordan Love/Malik Willis/Justin Fields/Kyle Trask talk.  Taking someone raw in college and grooming them into a top NFL RARELY happens. I would say Josh Allen is the ONLY one I can think of recently. Most of the time, they are busts.  

Jordan love is a TERRIBLE QB. I said that before the draft and I stick to it.  You gotta know what you are watching!

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I went back to 2000 for every QB that was drafted in the 1st round.  There was 61 QBs taken.  I went through and marked which ones I felt were FRANCHISE QBs, which to me means a top 5-10 QB in the NFL.  I am sure there was will be some argued about. Like didn't consider Kyler Murray a franchise QB.  But out of 61 QBs taken, I had 17 down as franchise QBs. That is a terrible hit rate.

 

My whole point is I know at some point we have to get the next Andrew Luck.  But just to take a guy in the 1st round to say we have someone usually doesn't work.  And will cost jobs.  We need to be in the right position AND have the right guy there, like what we had with Luck and Manning.

QBsDrafted.xlsx

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It’s hard to say how any QB would do when drafted by a different team. Eventually the Colts will need to draft someone.  I have no idea when that will be. Hopefully soon bc I don’t think Matt Ryan has much more than a couple years left. 

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4 hours ago, lennymoore24 said:

For all of you who were screaming about the Colts taking Jordan Love a few drafts back, please never do that again.  I get so tired of hearing the Colts HAVE to draft a QB and guys like Jordan Love have all this potential.  So, how would Chris Ballard and Frank Reich look now if he was our QB?  Would they even still be here?  Please understand a golden rule. Picking a QB in the first round doesn't guarantee a franchise QB.  In fact, more times than not, the player is a bust.  To get a real "franchise" QB, the Colts are going to have to luck into an Andrew Luck type by either being terrible, trading many draft picks to move up, or get lucky and find a sleeper.  And I diagree with guys like Kevin who say the Colts HAVE to pick a QB in the next years draft. I think Ryan will play 4 years at a high level So it wouldn't make sense. I would rather the Colts either have the #1 pick with an Andrew Luck player there OR pick someone in the 2nd/3rd round and get lucky with that person.  But please no more Jordan Love/Malik Willis/Justin Fields/Kyle Trask talk.  Taking someone raw in college and grooming them into a top NFL RARELY happens. I would say Josh Allen is the ONLY one I can think of recently. Most of the time, they are busts.  

Jordan love is a TERRIBLE QB. I said that before the draft and I stick to it.  You gotta know what you are watching!

 

Everything doesn't have to be one way or the other. @stitches and I just had a back and forth about this. It's absolutely true that first round QBs bust more often than they hit, and I argued that. Stitches made the counter point that you cannot hit if you don't swing, and he's absolutely right. You can't be so afraid of failing that you don't even try. He also pointed out that QB development is partly dependent on your organization, and how you support your young QB. 

 

It's also pretty silly to judge a QB who has played as little as Love has so far (and not sure why you're writing off Malik Willis already, or why anyone would be upset about taking a flier on a 4th round QB). And, to your point, if most first round QBs aren't that good, it's kind of ridiculous to end zone dance because you predicted that a first round QB wouldn't be good. 

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5 hours ago, lennymoore24 said:

For all of you who were screaming about the Colts taking Jordan Love a few drafts back, please never do that again.  I get so tired of hearing the Colts HAVE to draft a QB and guys like Jordan Love have all this potential.  So, how would Chris Ballard and Frank Reich look now if he was our QB?  Would they even still be here?  Please understand a golden rule. Picking a QB in the first round doesn't guarantee a franchise QB.  In fact, more times than not, the player is a bust.  To get a real "franchise" QB, the Colts are going to have to luck into an Andrew Luck type by either being terrible, trading many draft picks to move up, or get lucky and find a sleeper.  And I diagree with guys like Kevin who say the Colts HAVE to pick a QB in the next years draft. I think Ryan will play 4 years at a high level So it wouldn't make sense. I would rather the Colts either have the #1 pick with an Andrew Luck player there OR pick someone in the 2nd/3rd round and get lucky with that person.  But please no more Jordan Love/Malik Willis/Justin Fields/Kyle Trask talk.  Taking someone raw in college and grooming them into a top NFL RARELY happens. I would say Josh Allen is the ONLY one I can think of recently. Most of the time, they are busts.  

Jordan love is a TERRIBLE QB. I said that before the draft and I stick to it.  You gotta know what you are watching!

I was one of the most vocal proponents of drafting Love at the time(while acknowledging he will need development). But I also was vocal for drafting Herbert. Point is... QBs bust and QBs hit it out of the park. Noone has the illusions that you are guaranteed to hit on a QB if you draft in the 1st round. There is a decent chance you will not get that franchise QB in the player you pick. But you know what guarantees 100% no questions asked that you will NOT get a franchise QB - not picking one at all. Not even trying. 

 

Drafting a franchise QB is the hardest thing in this league. Even players drafted in the top 3 bust relatively regularly. And STILL, drafting one is the right thing to do when you don't have a franchise QB, because that's the best path for acquiring one. Franchise QBs just don't become available in FA and in trade until they are in the end of their career(and in most cases in the downslope of their career). 

 

The interesting thing is that you don't do the same thing about every other position. Why not make a thread about "I don't want to hear any more hype of Javon Kinlaw and you should not draft DTs in the 1st" or "I don't want to hear anymore Henry Ruggs talk" or "I don't want to hear no more Jeff Okudah type talk", "I don't want to hear any more Cesar Ruiz type talk"... I can do this for every single position in the league. You know why? Because they all have about the same bust rate as QBs in the same ranges in the draft. 

 

Point is - EVERY position busts(at about the same rate). That should not be stopping you from drafting the players you believe in. So yeah... I am afraid I will not heed to your advice here. Get ready for tons of Will Levis hype :D 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Everything doesn't have to be one way or the other. @stitches and I just had a back and forth about this. It's absolutely true that first round QBs bust more often than they hit, and I argued that. Stitches made the counter point that you cannot hit if you don't swing, and he's absolutely right. You can't be so afraid of failing that you don't even try. He also pointed out that QB development is partly dependent on your organization, and how you support your young QB. 

 

It's also pretty silly to judge a QB who has played as little as Love has so far (and not sure why you're writing off Malik Willis already, or why anyone would be upset about taking a flier on a 4th round QB). And, to your point, if most first round QBs aren't that good, it's kind of ridiculous to end zone dance because you predicted that a first round QB wouldn't be good. 

For whatever it's worth, reports from Packers camp don't seem too enthusiastic about Love and how he prepares himself, so I'm of the mind that if by year 3 you are not ready to play, you are very likely never going to be ready to play and very likely there are some underlying limitations that are showing themselves(work ethic, drive, physical or mental processing limitations, etc.)

 

But yeah... just like every other position in football there are risks in drafting a QB high and there is a chance he will bust. That should NOT stop us from drafting one when we don't have one in the building right now. Just like it doesn't stop you from drafting an EDGE player in R1 or a WR in R1 or an OT in R1, even though they have about the same chance to bust as a QB. 

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4 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Just like the lottery, you can’t win if you don’t play.  Forget getting the next Luck.  Let’s get the next “guy”.   
 

Move up in the draft, get a first rounder to sit behind Matt next season.  

 

If it doesn’t work out, you try again.  But you have to play to win.  


We played.   We traded for Carson Wentz.   That didn’t turn out as we hoped.   Anyone can make a trade.   Making a successful trade is another story. 

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30 minutes ago, stitches said:

For whatever it's worth, reports from Packers camp don't seem too enthusiastic about Love and how he prepares himself, so I'm of the mind that if by year 3 you are not ready to play, you are very likely never going to be ready to play and very likely there are some underlying limitations that are showing themselves(work ethic, drive, physical or mental processing limitations, etc.)

 

But yeah... just like every other position in football there are risks in drafting a QB high and there is a chance he will bust. That should NOT stop us from drafting one when we don't have one in the building right now. Just like it doesn't stop you from drafting an EDGE player in R1 or a WR in R1 or an OT in R1, even though they have about the same chance to bust as a QB. 


These are false arguments.   First, no one trades TWO 1’s and TWO 3’s at least to move up for any other position.   But you do for a quarterback. 
 

And you know that. 
 

Second, I don’t think the bust rate is as high for most other positions as it is for quarterback where the failure rate for first round quarterbacks is well over 50 percent. 
 

Plus,  there are other important factors.  Every pick you trade away impacts the quality of the team you put around the QB.  Plus, you have to eventually play the guy to see what you have.  And there will be growing pains along the way in most cases.   Are fans ready for several season of missing the playoffs because of poor quarterback play, PLUS even with an improved drafting position from a sub-500 record the team has traded so many picks, you don’t reap the benefit.  
 

Combine all those factors, the cost of the trade up, plus the high bust rate, the loss of high picks and that’s why teams like the Colts are very cautious.   You really do have to hit it big.   Otherwise your franchise is really set back. 
 

This isn’t remotely as simple as you like to portray that it is. 

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


These are false arguments.   First, no one trades TWO 1’s and TWO 3’s at least to move up for any other position.   But you do for a quarterback. 
 

And you know that. 

 

That's because QB is MUCH more more important position and returns much better value. 

 

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


 

Second, I don’t think the bust rate is as high for most other positions as it is for quarterback where the failure rate for first round quarterbacks is well over 50 percent. 

 

Depends on what you consider bust and what you consider hit. For example, some people don't consider QBs a hit unless they are perennial all pros and pro-bowlers, but consider solid but unremarkable linemen as hits. Example - is Ryan Kelly a hit? Most would say yes, but by the same measures players like Mitch Trubisky or Marcus Mariota or Carson Wentz should be considered hits too. There are studies done by some outlets that set a standard and judge it by that standard and the long-term results show very similar hit and bust rates for all positions in the same ranges in the draft. Now there are some slight deviations(for example, OL success rate in the 1st is higher than other positions, but again we are talking about something like 55% vs 45% hit rate. I have posted those here before... I need to search for it again... will post later if I find it. 

 

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


 

Plus,  there are other important factors.  Every pick you trade away impacts the quality of the team you put around the QB.  Plus, you have to eventually play the guy to see what you have.  And there will be growing pains along the way in most cases.   Are fans ready for several season of missing the playoffs because of poor quarterback play, PLUS even with an improved drafting position from a sub-500 record the team has traded so many picks, you don’t reap the benefit.  
 

Combine all those factors, the cost of the trade up, plus the high bust rate, the loss of high picks and that’s why teams like the Colts are very cautious.   You really do have to hit it big.   Otherwise your franchise is really set back. 
 

This isn’t remotely as simple as you like to portray that it is. 

Again, you are assuming the picks you make will pan out. In reality of the 2 extra picks you give up to move up in the draft for QB, 1 would very likely bust completely and the second one might be solid starter. Hell. lets assume you draft 2 very good players. You still have no long-term QB and sooner or later you will have to invest in that position in order to secure it long-term. So, congrats! You didn't give 2 extra picks this year. You will need to give them next year or the year after or the year after. Or ...you will need to suck and not need to give the extra picks. In which case - congrats, your 2 great players you picked resulted in nothing of substance and you now suck and you still need a QB. 

 

When you combine all the factors - IF you believe in a QB in the draft - no price is too high. You figure out the QB and you will have plenty of chances to build around him. You don't figure it out and you will have a middling team on the QB carousel. 

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Trying to find the next whoever never works.  If you set out to find the next Manning, Brady, or in the case of Love, the next Mahomes, you will likely fail. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Just like the lottery, you can’t win if you don’t play.  Forget getting the next Luck.  Let’s get the next “guy”.   
 

Move up in the draft, get a first rounder to sit behind Matt next season.  

 

If it doesn’t work out, you try again.  But you have to play to win.  

I’m in.  

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

That's because QB is MUCH more more important position and returns much better value. 

 

Depends on what you consider bust and what you consider hit. For example, some people don't consider QBs a hit unless they are perennial all pros and pro-bowlers, but consider solid but unremarkable linemen as hits. Example - is Ryan Kelly a hit? Most would say yes, but by the same measures players like Mitch Trubisky or Marcus Mariota or Carson Wentz should be considered hits too. There are studies done by some outlets that set a standard and judge it by that standard and the long-term results show very similar hit and bust rates for all positions in the same ranges in the draft. Now there are some slight deviations(for example, OL success rate in the 1st is higher than other positions, but again we are talking about something like 55% vs 45% hit rate. I have posted those here before... I need to search for it again... will post later if I find it. 

 

Again, you are assuming the picks you make will pan out. In reality of the 2 extra picks you give up to move up in the draft for QB, 1 would very likely bust completely and the second one might be solid starter. Hell. lets assume you draft 2 very good players. You still have no long-term QB and sooner or later you will have to invest in that position in order to secure it long-term. So, congrats! You didn't give 2 extra picks this year. You will need to give them next year or the year after or the year after. Or ...you will need to suck and not need to give the extra picks. In which case - congrats, your 2 great players you picked resulted in nothing of substance and you now suck and you still need a QB. 

 

When you combine all the factors - IF you believe in a QB in the draft - no price is too high. You figure out the QB and you will have plenty of chances to build around him. You don't figure it out and you will have a middling team on the QB carousel. 

Great post!

 

I agree completely. Yes it's more expensive to move up and get a QB but it's also by far the most important position to get right. Doesn't matter what else you have if you don't have the QB.

 

Start throwing darts or risk perpetual mediocracy.

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This is great and all, but we all have the benefit of hindsight now. 

 

Everyone thought Jordan Love was going to be really good (except the OP apparently), but you never truly know until they actually get to the level of of NFL competition. 

 

Sometimes you get lucky........

200.gif

 

.....sometimes you don't. 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


We played.   We traded for Carson Wentz.   That didn’t turn out as we hoped.   Anyone can make a trade.   Making a successful trade is another story. 


The point is - you have to keep trying.  Use that first pick next year, even if it’s a late pick.  
 

This is the perfect transition window with Matt as the starter for at least another year. 

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28 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Great post!

 

I agree completely. Yes it's more expensive to move up and get a QB but it's also by far the most important position to get right. Doesn't matter what else you have if you don't have the QB.

 

Start throwing darts or risk perpetual mediocracy.

In a lot of cases it's not even super expensive and prohibitive to get in play for talented QBs. Now sure, moving up for Lance cost a ton... moving up to 1 or 2 costs a ton. But we have very recent moves for very talented QBs that cost nowhere near as much. 

 

Moving up for Mahomes cost an extra 1st and 3d. 

Moving up for Allen cost a player the Bills didn't want to re-sign and 2 late seconds. 

Moving up for Lamar Jackson cost an extra future second and a 4th. 

Moving up for Fields cost an extra 1st. 

 

Those are pretty normal prices for trade ups in the draft, not just for QBs but for any player that super desireable. Examples

- Saints traded extra 1st and 5th to move up for EDGE Marcus Davenport. 

- Dolphins traded extra 1st and 4th to move up for WR Jaylen Waddle

 

 

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5 hours ago, stitches said:

I was one of the most vocal proponents of drafting Love at the time(while acknowledging he will need development). But I also was vocal for drafting Herbert. Point is... QBs bust and QBs hit it out of the park. Noone has the illusions that you are guaranteed to hit on a QB if you draft in the 1st round. There is a decent chance you will not get that franchise QB in the player you pick. But you know what guarantees 100% no questions asked that you will NOT get a franchise QB - not picking one at all. Not even trying. 

 

Drafting a franchise QB is the hardest thing in this league. Even players drafted in the top 3 bust relatively regularly. And STILL, drafting one is the right thing to do when you don't have a franchise QB, because that's the best path for acquiring one. Franchise QBs just don't become available in FA and in trade until they are in the end of their career(and in most cases in the downslope of their career). 

 

The interesting thing is that you don't do the same thing about every other position. Why not make a thread about "I don't want to hear any more hype of Javon Kinlaw and you should not draft DTs in the 1st" or "I don't want to hear anymore Henry Ruggs talk" or "I don't want to hear no more Jeff Okudah type talk", "I don't want to hear any more Cesar Ruiz type talk"... I can do this for every single position in the league. You know why? Because they all have about the same bust rate as QBs in the same ranges in the draft. 

 

Point is - EVERY position busts(at about the same rate). That should not be stopping you from drafting the players you believe in. So yeah... I am afraid I will not heed to your advice here. Get ready for tons of Will Levis hype :D 

 

 

We actually tried for a franchise QB, his name was Carson. He just turned 29 and we were hoping he could give us 10 years and be franchise QB for a decade. It didn't work going that route. I do know this Matt Ryan was absolutely the best choice for this season. If Matt helps us win a SB than this will be great decision. I trust Matt to do it than any QB that came out of this year's draft. I am for drafting a QB but it has to be the right situation. Meaning if you have top 5 pick or your team is in rebuild mode. We are in win now mode.

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5 minutes ago, stitches said:

In a lot of cases it's not even super expensive and prohibitive to get in play for talented QBs. Now sure, moving up for Lance cost a ton... moving up to 1 or 2 costs a ton. But we have very recent moves for very talented QBs that cost nowhere near as much. 

 

Moving up for Mahomes cost an extra 1st and 3d. 

Moving up for Allen cost a player the Bills didn't want to re-sign and 2 late seconds. 

Moving up for Lamar Jackson cost an extra future second and a 4th. 

Moving up for Fields cost an extra 1st. 

 

I was thinking about that top 5-ish range mainly, but QBs have been found all over the 1st and it's a lot cheaper outside the top 5. :thmup:

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15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We actually tried for a franchise QB, his name was Carson. He just turned 29 and we were hoping he could give us 10 years and be franchise QB for a decade. It didn't work going that route. I do know this Matt Ryan was absolutely the best choice for this season. If Matt helps us win a SB than this will be great decision. I trust Matt to do it than any QB that came out of this year's draft. I am for drafting a QB but it has to be the right situation. Meaning if you have top 5 pick or your team is in rebuild mode. We are in win now mode.

Matt Ryan was IMO a very good choice for this year almost regardless of what happens this year... whether we win SB or not. He was the best option of a very limited pool of candidates. But Matt Ryan doesn't solve your long-term problem at QB. 

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25 minutes ago, Smonroe said:


The point is - you have to keep trying.  Use that first pick next year, even if it’s a late pick.  
 

This is the perfect transition window with Matt as the starter for at least another year. 

Yep. Just because you miss, doesn't mean you stop trying. QB is SO IMPORTANT in this game that you keep trying until you hit.. no matter how many times you miss. 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


These are false arguments.   First, no one trades TWO 1’s and TWO 3’s at least to move up for any other position.   But you do for a quarterback. 
 

And you know that. 
 

Second, I don’t think the bust rate is as high for most other positions as it is for quarterback where the failure rate for first round quarterbacks is well over 50 percent. 
 

Plus,  there are other important factors.  Every pick you trade away impacts the quality of the team you put around the QB.  Plus, you have to eventually play the guy to see what you have.  And there will be growing pains along the way in most cases.   Are fans ready for several season of missing the playoffs because of poor quarterback play, PLUS even with an improved drafting position from a sub-500 record the team has traded so many picks, you don’t reap the benefit.  
 

Combine all those factors, the cost of the trade up, plus the high bust rate, the loss of high picks and that’s why teams like the Colts are very cautious.   You really do have to hit it big.   Otherwise your franchise is really set back. 
 

This isn’t remotely as simple as you like to portray that it is. 

I agree with this.  There are for example many examples of high even 1st pick QBs totally busting.  Not so for other positions drafted that high.  And even if other positions disappoint for their draft slot, often they are serviceable plyers while busted QBs are pretty much worthless.

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56 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I agree with this.  There are for example many examples of high even 1st pick QBs totally busting.  Not so for other positions drafted that high.  And even if other positions disappoint for their draft slot, often they are serviceable plyers while busted QBs are pretty much worthless.


I mean... that's straight up not true. There are plenty of total busts at other positions high in the draft. The fact that teams don't tolerate QBs playing at the level of many total busts at other positions that are allowed to play is actually a point against that argument. QBs are just SO MUCH MORE valuable than any other positions that noone tolerates bad/below average players there. 

 

Examples - Solomon Thomas, Leonard Fournette, John Ross, Ereck Flowers, Dante Fowler, Kevin White, Clelin Ferrell, Devin Bush, Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson... 

 

Those are all players whose level of play would be considered total bust if QBs played at the same level, no matter whether they continued to receive chances or not at their original positions... and some of them have continued to receive chances for years and years. Teams just would never stick with a QB playing at that level because the position is much more valuable and impacts winning(and losing) this much more, not because those players are any less of busts. 

 

And again - on the other side of the spectrum - the payoff on hitting on a QB is much higher, too. 

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MLF even said the three INTs against SF weren't even his fault...two were drops and the other had two WRs running the wrong route, which happens in PS with fringe roster players.

 

We have no idea what would have become of Love if the Colts drafted him. At this point, he's never going to be a Colt so it doesn't really matter.

 

But Love is just one QB. What some fans here really want is to draft and develop a QB.

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26 minutes ago, stitches said:


I mean... that's straight up not true. There are plenty of total busts at other positions high in the draft. The fact that teams don't tolerate QBs playing at the level of many total busts at other positions that are allowed to play is actually a point against that argument. QBs are just SO MUCH MORE valuable than any other positions that noone tolerates bad/below average players there. 

 

Examples - Solomon Thomas, Leonard Fournette, John Ross, Ereck Flowers, Dante Fowler, Kevin White, Clelin Ferrell, Devin Bush, Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson... 

 

Those are all players whose level of play would be considered total bust if QBs played at the same level, no matter whether they continued to receive chances or not at their original positions... and some of them have continued to receive chances for years and years. Teams just would never stick with a QB playing at that level because the position is much more valuable and impacts winning(and losing) this much more, not because those players are any less of busts. 

 

And again - on the other side of the spectrum - the payoff on hitting on a QB is much higher, too. 

 

There's also only 32 starting QBs in the NFL, while most other positions have 4-6x spots that get run. You can bury a busted 1st round pick in a DL rotation or in a secondary or even in a WR room.   

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14 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

Moving up for Mahomes cost an extra 1st and 3d. 

Moving up for Allen cost a player the Bills didn't want to re-sign and 2 late seconds. 

Moving up for Lamar Jackson cost an extra future second and a 4th. 

Moving up for Fields cost an extra 1st. 

 

 

 

 

For every one of those, there were unsuccessful trade ups.   Just ask the Jets and Bears.

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I still would have preferred to pull the trigger on a QB this past draft, especially with a few of them falling to the 3rd round. It was basically a lottery ticket with little opportunity cost.

 

And he would have had two years to learn behind Ryan. The most likely scenario was having an athletic, cheap backup QB for a few years, but there's still a chance he pans out. And I am all for taking chances at QB when they present themselves.

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2 hours ago, Smonroe said:


The point is - you have to keep trying.  Use that first pick next year, even if it’s a late pick.  
 

This is the perfect transition window with Matt as the starter for at least another year. 


For the Colts sake, Ryan can show us he has another 3 years in him. If he does, our LT position might become more important then for the near future, unless a QB of value starts dropping warranting a pick.

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45 minutes ago, Myles said:

For every one of those, there were unsuccessful trade ups.   Just ask the Jets and Bears.

Yeah I will go most recent, here are QB's drafted in the top 10 since the 2014 draft:

 

2014

Blake Bortles #3 - not a franchise QB

 

2015

Winston #1 - not a franchise QB

Mariota #2 - not a franchise QB

 

2016

Goff #1 - not a franchise QB

Wentz #2 - not a franchise QB

 

2017

Trubisky #2 - not a franchise QB

Mahomes #10 - Franchise QB

 

2018 

Mayfield #1 - not a franchise QB

Darnold #3 - not a franchise QB

Allen #7 - Franchise QB

Rosen #10 - not a franchise QB, is he still even in the league?

 

2019

Murray #1 - not a franchise QB, good but not Franchise.

Jones #6 - not a franchise QB

 

2020

Burrow #1 - Franchise QB

Tua #5 - not a franchise QB

Herbert #6 - Franchise QB

 

2021

Lawrence #1 - bad rookie season but maybe??

Wilson #2 - not a franchise QB, don't see it at all.

Lance #3 - I don't see him as a franchise QB, but he hasn't played much.

 

19 QB's have been taken in the Top 10 since the 2014 draft and only 4 we can say for certian are franchise QB's = Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert. That is 8 drafts worth! The rest of those QB's are pretty much MEH. I will hold out on Lawrence for a year because I think he could be a franchise QB but that isn't a given. Jordan Love was drafted 26th in the 2020 draft so 25 teams passed on him and he is bad IMO.

 

So 4 QB's out of 19 that were drafted Top 10 since 2014 = a 21% hit rate on getting someone that is a franchise/spectacular QB. That is pretty low. A team has to be really lucky to get a franchise QB because I just gave a huge sample size where a team won't drafting one in the Top 10. 

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There are a lot of variables to finding a "franchise QB" as you describe it. Also, is it necessary to have one of these guys to win a Super Bowl? No, but it makes it a lot easier. Some guys look promising as rookies, but then never develop. That can be either because they are missing a necessary skill, mental or physical, or they get beat up physically and mentally and are never the same. Keeping them on the sidelines to learn the position isn't always the answer either. There is no perfect formula even if you draft the perfect guy. Odds are better if it's a first round guy, but you can get lucky later. Every pick, QB or not, is a combination of need and talent and then you have to get a little lucky.

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53 minutes ago, chad72 said:


For the Colts sake, Ryan can show us he has another 3 years in him. If he does, our LT position might become more important then for the near future, unless a QB of value starts dropping warranting a pick.

Agreed. If Matt is even with us for the next 2 years, LT could be the primary focus. Patch up the line, and then the offense is rejuvenated for a rookie to come into and have early success. 

 

If Matt doesn't work out, then we'll be right back into the thick of the QB hunt. 

 

It's kind of interesting to see how the Bengals have built their team around Burrow. It's reminiscent of the early Polian days surrounding offensive talent around Manning. 

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10 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Agreed. If Matt is even with us for the next 2 years, LT could be the primary focus. Patch up the line, and then the offense is rejuvenated for a rookie to come into and have early success. 

 

If Matt doesn't work out, then we'll be right back into the thick of the QB hunt. 

 

It's kind of interesting to see how the Bengals have built their team around Burrow. It's reminiscent of the early Polian days surrounding offensive talent around Manning. 

 

Yes but they have played free agency plenty to bolster missing pieces for their team, unlike Polian, to take advantage of Burrow's rookie contract.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Yes but they have played free agency plenty to bolster missing pieces for their team, unlike Polian, to take advantage of Burrow's rookie contract.

Very true. The time is now for them to get back into the dance and win it all. It won't get any easier from here on out, as teams know what they have. No more surprises like last year. It will be fascinating to see how they handle the pressure of high expectations. 

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