Michael Pittman's market value after 2022 -- $25m/year

[John Waylon]

Thanks tony con. You’re as bad at football as you are professional wrestling. 

[Superman]

Since I posted this a few weeks ago, there have been a few new WR contracts. For the most part, they've been pretty much what we expected from a money standpoint, but I find them interesting for different reasons.

 

Deebo Samuel signed a new three year contract, valued at $23.85m/year. He's obviously very talented, but until 2021 he didn't have a lot of production. He had a few injuries pop up as well. There were a few good games here and there, but after two seasons, he had 1,193 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs, total. Then he exploded in 2021, and more than doubled his production from his first two seasons. And now he's the 8th highest paid WR in the NFL.

 

DK Metcalf signed a new three year contract, valued at $24m/year. He's a monster of a talent, and has been very productive, especially in 2020. But even with a backslide in production in 2021 -- which can probably be attributed to QB play -- he had double digit receiving TDs, and is a game-breaking threat every down. (Everyone always drools over these HWS guys coming out of college; the majority of them don't hit, but DK is the prototypical proof of concept, and has far outplayed his draft position.) He's now tied with Stefon Diggs as the 6th highest paid WR in the league.

 

And now, the most interesting: Diontae Johnson. Everyone else we've been talking about is at 13.9 yards/catch or higher. (Even MPJ, who is a less dynamic performer than some of the other guys, is at 12.4 yards/catch.) Johnson is at 10.9 for his career, and has never been higher than 11.5. But he had 107 catches for 1,161 yards last season, and 8 TDs, despite having a very impaired QB. He's also smaller and not a super speedster (5'10", 183 pounds, 4.53 forty at the Combine), and went in the third round in 2019 (two picks after DK, ten picks ahead of Terry McLaurin). He plays for the Steelers, a team that's historically hesitant to pay big contracts before they have to, and that always seems to find good WRs in the draft; in fact, they drafted the bigger, faster Chase Claypool a year later in the second round, and he looks like he'll be their more dynamic, playmaking WR. 

 

Johnson just signed a two year extension, worth $18.3m/year, and he'll be a FA in 2025. The new money is just under $37m for 2023 and 2024, and apparently he gets a $17m signing bonus. This is a major outlier, and I'm not sure of Johnson's incentive, other than 'that's a lot of money and I want to take it now just in case I get injured in 2022.' If the Steelers made clear they would tag Johnson in 2023, maybe he sees this as just getting ahead of the curve. But the exclusive franchise tag for WRs in 2023 looks like it will be nearly $30m, so it's not like a player would be dreading that tag right now.

 

Even if the Steelers threatened to use the transition tag -- which looks like it will be more like $16m in 2023 -- Johnson would still be able to sign an offer sheet with another team, and his market would likely have been well above $20m/year. Spotrac's projection -- and these are not gospel by any means -- was $21.5m/year. And usually the incentive for a player to take a shorter than usual contract is either a higher yearly average, or a greater percentage of guaranteed money, or both. That's been the case with Brown, McLaurin, Metcalf, and Samuel. Johnson didn't get the higher average, or the greater guarantee.

 

So it seems like Johnson decided to just take the money now -- which is a major pay increase for him -- play out the next three seasons, and see what happens. And that's fine, good for him, good for the Steelers. But it doesn't seem representative of the market.

 

After 2022, if MPJ has another nice season, no doubt the Colts will use Johnson's contract as a point of negotiation.  This contract also suggests that there's more than one way to get a deal done. But it's still hard to see MPJ's value being less than $20m/year, and if he has a really strong year, it's probably closer to what the other guys have been getting.

[masterlock]

There's NO WAY I'd pay $25M/year. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 Pittman will be the second  highest paid player on a yearly basis on this team.

[Superman]

I should have added this. For comparison, Christian Kirk, who has far less production than any of the guys we're talking about in this thread, went to Jacksonville for four years, $72m ($18m/year), with $37m guaranteed. 

 

Diontae Johnson just got Christian Kirk money, but for only two years.

 

When Kirk signed, I assumed the market would repudiate that contract as an outlier. Instead, it's become the baseline, and every WR contract signed since then has validated and embraced this higher yearly average, with the trade off being fewer years. Except Johnson's, for some reason. 

[Four2itus]

Folks whined when we took Reggie in the draft as most everyone expected defense. 

Folks whined when the team could not replace Reggie.

Now folks are whining at the upcoming cost of the guy they finally got to replace Reggie.

 

Is there a common theme here?

[sb41champs]

Personally - I think it is WAY too early to be concerned about this matter.

 

Chris Ballard has done a very good job of re-signing our own - and - at the right contract number for both parties.

 

Thankfully - NFL contracts aren't impacted by supply-chain issues.

 

Giggle giggle

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

Folks whined when we took Reggie in the draft as most everyone expected defense. 

Folks whined when the team could not replace Reggie.

Now folks are whining at the upcoming cost of the guy they finally got to replace Reggie.

 

Is there a common theme here?

Yet, many of them have no issue paying a guard, left tackle money?  I would prefer to spend the money on a premium position first....just my two cents.

[stitches]

I've been circling around this thread not knowing what to say because either way I would seem like a hypocrite. Pittman plays a position that I think is among the most important in the league and he made a clear jump last year. 

 

And still... I kind of don't believe he's worth that type of pay. At least not at this current moment. I want to see one more season of him at a very high level.. and yes, I probably need to see him take another step forward for me to be OK with us giving him 25M/year.

[LiveAndLetAddai]

Just now, sb41champs said:

Personally - I think it is WAY too early to be concerned about this matter.

 

Chris Ballard has done a very good job of re-signing our own - and - at the right contract number for both parties.

 

Thankfully - NFL contracts aren't impacted by supply-chain issues.

 

Giggle giggle

We just need football to start already, lol!  Again, my apologies foir calling you "man" in the other thread 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, sb41champs said:

Personally - I think it is WAY too early to be concerned about this matter.

 

Chris Ballard has done a very good job of re-signing our own - and - at the right contract number for both parties.

 

Thankfully - NFL contracts aren't impacted by supply-chain issues.

 

Giggle giggle

 

I'm not concerned about it. Contracts are my jam, and the WR market has changed drastically in a short period of time. 

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

I've been circling around this thread not knowing what to say because either way I would seem like a hypocrite. Pittman plays a position that I think is among the most important in the league and he made a clear jump last year. 

 

And still... I kind of don't believe he's worth that type of pay. At least not at this current moment. I want to see one more season of him at a very high level.. and yes, I probably need to see him take another step forward for me to be OK with us giving him 25M/year.

 

So what do you do? Yes, there's still a year before any decision needs to be made, but how do you expect it to go?

 

Diontae Johnson was holding in. Deebo, DK, McLaurin and Brown were or would have been disgruntled. They all got new deals after three years. The Colts have a practice of paying players a year early -- Leonard, Smith, Hines, KM got paid two years early. We can consider the standard set, so it's reasonable to expect this to be a topic next year.

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

So what do you do? Yes, there's still a year before any decision needs to be made, but how do you expect it to go?

 

Diontae Johnson was holding in. Deebo, DK, McLaurin and Brown were or would have been disgruntled. They all got new deals after three years. The Colts have a practice of paying players a year early -- Leonard, Smith, Hines, KM got paid two years early. We can consider the standard set, so it's reasonable to expect this to be a topic next year.

If he takes a step forward and looks like a McLaurin/Brown/Deebo(I don't think he does right now, he looks a tier below, but he can definitely take a step forward this coming year), I would give him the money.

 

If he keeps playing like he did last year, I'd offer him around 18-20M/year and if he doesn't take it I will either try to trade him around draft time and hope we can get a 1st for him or will let him linger and hope he just does his job since he would still have one more year under contract... 

[Superman]

13 minutes ago, stitches said:

If he takes a step forward and looks like a McLaurin/Brown/Deebo(I don't think he does right now, he looks a tier below, but he can definitely take a step forward this coming year), I would give him the money.

 

If he keeps playing like he did last year, I'd offer him around 18-20M/year and if he doesn't take it I will either try to trade him around draft time and hope we can get a 1st for him or will let him linger and hope he just does his job since he would still have one more year under contract... 

 

If he would take Johnson's two year deal, he'd be letting the Colts off the hook. I doubt that happens, but I'm eager to see how it goes down.

[EastStreet]

 

There's a fair chance Pitt has a great year, but doesn't get to 1000 this season. What happens to his value then.

 

Yes we have a better QB. But that QB also likes to deal it around. And we also may have other WRs emerge. 

 

Pittman might benefit from all of that, and less doubles, and get even more yards this season. But he may also go backwards. 

[jvan1973]

On 7/5/2022 at 2:21 PM, DougDew said:

Depends on who else on the team gets paid what.  $25m for a productive WR, which is a position that produces touchdowns,  doesn't seem unreasonable. 

Every position on offense helps produce touchdowns.   Every position on defense helps prevent  touchdowns it takes 11.  

[Rhodelesstraveled]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:49 PM, Superman said:

Another thread talked about whether Michael Pittman Jr would have a breakout season in 2022. Here's the real question, IMO: Are you ready to see MPJ get a contract worth $25m/year? 

 

The WR market has absolutely exploded in the last few years. In May 2019, Michael Thomas agreed to a new contract that made him the highest paid WR in NFL history -- five years, $96.25m, $19.25m/year. (Julio Jones reset the market a few months later, signing a new deal worth $22m/year.) Thomas' contract came after his third season. Through his first three years, Thomas had been a production monster. In Year 3, he led the NFL with 125 catches, was 6th in the league with 1,405 receiving yards, tied for 10th with 9 TDs, and was 4th in catch percentage (85%). One year after his record setting contract, Thomas set a new NFL record with 149 receptions, and led the league with 1,725 receiving yards, so at the time, it looked like money well spent -- you make the guy the highest paid receiver, and he continues being the most productive pass catcher.

 

Fast forward to 2022, Thomas is now the 14th highest paid WR. That's not abnormal, player contracts get bigger each year. But there are a couple of factors that are eye catching. First, the steep incline of the top of the market has been drastic. The highest paid WR (Tyreek Hill) is now making $30m/year, which is a 56% increase in just three seasons. (For comparison, in 2016, AJ Green was the highest paid WR, at $15m/year; in three years, that's a 28% increase. Or another position comparison is OG: In 2018, Zack Martin set the market at $14m/year; as of this offseason, the highest paid guard is Brandon Scherff, at $16m/year, just a 14% increase.)

 

Second, breaking that $20m/year barrier doesn't require league best production anymore. Two non-first round WRs who just finished their third seasons signed massive new contracts this offseason. AJ Brown was traded from the Titans to the Eagles, and signed a new four year contract worth $100m, $25m average, making him the fifth highest paid WR in the league. Terry McLaurin had a little bit of a standoff with Washington, and just signed a three year extension worth $70m, $23.3m average, making him the seventh highest paid WR in the league. You'd think that would mean these two guys represent the upper echelon of NFL pass catchers, that their production puts them in the top 10-15, right? Nope, not even close.

 

In 2021, AJ Brown was 47th in receptions (63), 32nd in yards (869), tied for 43rd in TDs (5), and 163rd in catch percentage (60%). Terry McLaurin was 26th in receptions (77), 20th in yards (1,053), tied for 43rd in TDs (5), and 169th in catch percentage (59.2%). I like both of these players, I think they're really good, there are other factors besides raw numbers (QB play, injuries, scheme, etc.), and they both have the potential to produce at a higher level. But statistically speaking, they're not top of the league, and their profiles pale in comparison to Michael Thomas in 2019. Realistically, we need to discuss whether either of them even belong in the top 20 right now.

 

So bringing this home to the Colts, Michael Pittman Jr is eligible for a contract extension after the 2022 season. Realistically speaking, he's one of 7-8 players that the Colts should be looking to build with for the next few years. His position is also one of the least proven on the roster. So the idea that the Colts won't be committing to him seems absurd to even consider. In his 2nd season, MPJ was 17th in receptions (88), 18th in yards (1,082), tied for 29th in TDs (6), and 91st in catch percentage (68.2%). He was more productive than Brown and McLaurin in each category. In 2022, he will potentially have a better QBing situation, and be a year more refined as an NFL player.

 

So if the present market for Brown and McLaurin is $23-25m/year, that seems like a starting point for MPJ after 2022. If his contract came in at $20m/year, it would be an absolute steal for the Colts, based on the current market. Do you know that, in the history of the Colts, only four players have ever made $20m/year or more? First was Andrew Luck ($25m/year), then DeForest Buckner ($21m/year), then we traded for Carson Wentz (his average is $32m/year, but we only paid him $21.3m in 2021), and now Matt Ryan ($30m/year). Only one of those was a non-QB. 

 

We have Nelson coming up, and many are projecting that he'll get $20m/year, but Chris Ballard seemed to suggest that projection is a little ambitious. Based on the market for guards, I agree, but we'll see. 

 

TL;DR -- Get ready for Michael Pittman Jr. to get a contract that's close to $25m/year. His closest comps -- Terry McLaurin and AJ Brown -- got $23-25m/year with less production than him. 

I wouldn't pay him 10 million a year.  He is just another guy WR. 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

So what do you do? Yes, there's still a year before any decision needs to be made, but how do you expect it to go?

 

Diontae Johnson was holding in. Deebo, DK, McLaurin and Brown were or would have been disgruntled. They all got new deals after three years. The Colts have a practice of paying players a year early -- Leonard, Smith, Hines, KM got paid two years early. We can consider the standard set, so it's reasonable to expect this to be a topic next year.

Since I’m expecting an extension for Taylor, then I’m expecting one for Pitt as well.   I think the best news to come from the last four WR signings is that they’ve all been less than 4 years.  3/3/3/2.     I think the players are betting on themselves that they can get another big bite at the Apple before they hit 30.    
 

So, maybe Pitt takes 3/60-63?     I think the key is how much are the guarantees?   I’ve been beating that drum in all these discussions.   Guarantees will be the key.  
 

But I think the talk of 4/100 or even 5/100 will be much less due to these last four WR contracts.   

[RobertAP]

I don't have much of an investment here, and I certainly don't have anything against Pittman getting paid, but I don't think that paying top billing for WR's is a good move.

First, the money is best spent elsewhere; DE, DT, OT, CB, and of course, QB.

Second, good QB's can make average WR's into good/great WR's. Who would have considered Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, or Austin Hooper to be a high production player without having a great QB throwing to them? 

Third, WR's are typically the players least involved in the offense, touching the ball on only a few plays per game, seldom being very effective in other aspects of the offense. If you're going to invest big money, wouldn't it be better to invest in players who are more involved, or at least spend the money in a way which gives you better overall players rather than paying for a superstar WR?

[Moosejawcolt]

On 7/5/2022 at 11:49 AM, Superman said:

Another thread talked about whether Michael Pittman Jr would have a breakout season in 2022. Here's the real question, IMO: Are you ready to see MPJ get a contract worth $25m/year? 

 

The WR market has absolutely exploded in the last few years. In May 2019, Michael Thomas agreed to a new contract that made him the highest paid WR in NFL history -- five years, $96.25m, $19.25m/year. (Julio Jones reset the market a few months later, signing a new deal worth $22m/year.) Thomas' contract came after his third season. Through his first three years, Thomas had been a production monster. In Year 3, he led the NFL with 125 catches, was 6th in the league with 1,405 receiving yards, tied for 10th with 9 TDs, and was 4th in catch percentage (85%). One year after his record setting contract, Thomas set a new NFL record with 149 receptions, and led the league with 1,725 receiving yards, so at the time, it looked like money well spent -- you make the guy the highest paid receiver, and he continues being the most productive pass catcher.

 

Fast forward to 2022, Thomas is now the 14th highest paid WR. That's not abnormal, player contracts get bigger each year. But there are a couple of factors that are eye catching. First, the steep incline of the top of the market has been drastic. The highest paid WR (Tyreek Hill) is now making $30m/year, which is a 56% increase in just three seasons. (For comparison, in 2016, AJ Green was the highest paid WR, at $15m/year; in three years, that's a 28% increase. Or another position comparison is OG: In 2018, Zack Martin set the market at $14m/year; as of this offseason, the highest paid guard is Brandon Scherff, at $16m/year, just a 14% increase.)

 

Second, breaking that $20m/year barrier doesn't require league best production anymore. Two non-first round WRs who just finished their third seasons signed massive new contracts this offseason. AJ Brown was traded from the Titans to the Eagles, and signed a new four year contract worth $100m, $25m average, making him the fifth highest paid WR in the league. Terry McLaurin had a little bit of a standoff with Washington, and just signed a three year extension worth $70m, $23.3m average, making him the seventh highest paid WR in the league. You'd think that would mean these two guys represent the upper echelon of NFL pass catchers, that their production puts them in the top 10-15, right? Nope, not even close.

 

In 2021, AJ Brown was 47th in receptions (63), 32nd in yards (869), tied for 43rd in TDs (5), and 163rd in catch percentage (60%). Terry McLaurin was 26th in receptions (77), 20th in yards (1,053), tied for 43rd in TDs (5), and 169th in catch percentage (59.2%). I like both of these players, I think they're really good, there are other factors besides raw numbers (QB play, injuries, scheme, etc.), and they both have the potential to produce at a higher level. But statistically speaking, they're not top of the league, and their profiles pale in comparison to Michael Thomas in 2019. Realistically, we need to discuss whether either of them even belong in the top 20 right now.

 

So bringing this home to the Colts, Michael Pittman Jr is eligible for a contract extension after the 2022 season. Realistically speaking, he's one of 7-8 players that the Colts should be looking to build with for the next few years. His position is also one of the least proven on the roster. So the idea that the Colts won't be committing to him seems absurd to even consider. In his 2nd season, MPJ was 17th in receptions (88), 18th in yards (1,082), tied for 29th in TDs (6), and 91st in catch percentage (68.2%). He was more productive than Brown and McLaurin in each category. In 2022, he will potentially have a better QBing situation, and be a year more refined as an NFL player.

 

So if the present market for Brown and McLaurin is $23-25m/year, that seems like a starting point for MPJ after 2022. If his contract came in at $20m/year, it would be an absolute steal for the Colts, based on the current market. Do you know that, in the history of the Colts, only four players have ever made $20m/year or more? First was Andrew Luck ($25m/year), then DeForest Buckner ($21m/year), then we traded for Carson Wentz (his average is $32m/year, but we only paid him $21.3m in 2021), and now Matt Ryan ($30m/year). Only one of those was a non-QB. 

 

We have Nelson coming up, and many are projecting that he'll get $20m/year, but Chris Ballard seemed to suggest that projection is a little ambitious. Based on the market for guards, I agree, but we'll see. 

 

TL;DR -- Get ready for Michael Pittman Jr. to get a contract that's close to $25m/year. His closest comps -- Terry McLaurin and AJ Brown -- got $23-25m/year with less production than him. 

Do like the Titans and trade him.

[Moosejawcolt]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

There's a fair chance Pitt has a great year, but doesn't get to 1000 this season. What happens to his value then.

 

Yes we have a better QB. But that QB also likes to deal it around. And we also may have other WRs emerge. 

 

Pittman might benefit from all of that, and less doubles, and get even more yards this season. But he may also go backwards. 

I have said it before. Barring any major injury to the other receivers. I think we will come out of this season saying Pitman is not the best wr  on this team

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I have said it before. Barring any major injury to the other receivers. I think we will come out of this season saying Pitman is not the best wr  on this team

 

Context is never your friend lol. He's an elite X. He'll remain an elite X. Someone may emerge and get more yards, or maybe more wow plays, but he'll remain one of the best Xs in the league. 

[GoColts8818]

I have a feeling the Colts are going to pay him.  The WR market has changed with the off-season so eye popping numbers are now a part of it.  
 

Once get past that he really checks all the boxes Ballard has tended to look for when handing out extensions.  He’s a home grown talent, he’s performed better each year, and he’s stayed healthy.  The Colts also have no one walking through that door to replace him, you think the WR room lacks talent now take Pittman away and you might be able to find some college teams with better sets of WRs, and signing another free agent would cost just as much if not more so you are better off sticking with your guy you know works in your system.  

[ztboiler]

19 hours ago, Superman said:

 

So what do you do? Yes, there's still a year before any decision needs to be made, but how do you expect it to go?

 

Diontae Johnson was holding in. Deebo, DK, McLaurin and Brown were or would have been disgruntled. They all got new deals after three years. The Colts have a practice of paying players a year early -- Leonard, Smith, Hines, KM got paid two years early. We can consider the standard set, so it's reasonable to expect this to be a topic next year.

If there is a flaw in Ballard’s approach it is possibly the same as Polian had…the tendency to pay good players who are excellent system players like great players but the combined performance delta of dollars spent in a fixed cap system does not add up to enough total impact to get you over the top.

 

MPJ is yet to show game influencing traits commensurate with statistical production. Yet, he will get paid positional value in line with the market.

[Superman]

16 hours ago, Rhodelesstraveled said:

I wouldn't pay him 10 million a year.  He is just another guy WR. 

 

Oh look, another topic on which you can be ignored. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

17 hours ago, Rhodelesstraveled said:

I wouldn't pay him 10 million a year.  He is just another guy WR. 

You are non-stop with your silly talk 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

If there is a flaw in Ballard’s approach it is possibly the same as Polian had…the tendency to pay good players who are excellent system players like great players but the combined performance delta of dollars spent in a fixed cap system does not add up to enough total impact to get you over the top.

 

MPJ is yet to show game influencing traits commensurate with statistical production. Yet, he will get paid positional value in line with the market.

 

I know what you mean about Polian's tendency. Gary Brackett immediately comes to mind. (Ironically, Polian never seemed to pay his Will LB a second contract.) But the question is always about how you replace these players. 

 

It's easy to balk at paying MPJ anywhere near where the market is taking us. First, he hasn't really popped from a production standpoint, at least not yet. Second, the WR market has exploded in a short period of time; in my OP, I mentioned how the market has increased disproportionately. 

 

The hard part is presenting a strategy that replaces him effectively. Trade him, and then what? Let him walk, and then what? Fans always respond with 'draft his replacement, it's not hard,' when in reality, early round WRs bust at a higher rate than any other position. 

[Four2itus]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I know what you mean about Polian's tendency. Gary Brackett immediately comes to mind. (Ironically, Polian never seemed to pay his Will LB a second contract.) But the question is always about how you replace these players. 

 

It's easy to balk at paying MPJ anywhere near where the market is taking us. First, he hasn't really popped from a production standpoint, at least not yet. Second, the WR market has exploded in a short period of time; in my OP, I mentioned how the market has increased disproportionately. 

 

The hard part is presenting a strategy that replaces him effectively. Trade him, and then what? Let him walk, and then what? Fans always respond with 'draft his replacement, it's not hard,' when in reality, early round WRs bust at a higher rate than any other position. 

But, a bigger issue in my opinion, is the culture that Ballard has put his stamp on. Growing and paying your own. If you let M.P. go elsewhere, the G.M.s message gets watered down and weak. If they did the same with Q, the message becomes completely hollow. 

 

I think that they will pay M. P. and by the end of his contract, he will have earned it easily in contrast to the WR market. The guy is built for the NFL grind...both mentally, and physically. 

[ztboiler]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I know what you mean about Polian's tendency. Gary Brackett immediately comes to mind. (Ironically, Polian never seemed to pay his Will LB a second contract.) But the question is always about how you replace these players. 

 

It's easy to balk at paying MPJ anywhere near where the market is taking us. First, he hasn't really popped from a production standpoint, at least not yet. Second, the WR market has exploded in a short period of time; in my OP, I mentioned how the market has increased disproportionately. 

 

The hard part is presenting a strategy that replaces him effectively. Trade him, and then what? Let him walk, and then what? Fans always respond with 'draft his replacement, it's not hard,' when in reality, early round WRs bust at a higher rate than any other position. 

Agree with the premise of your OP…agree with the dilemma you’ve outlined.  My belief is that Ballard will pay him disproportionately to his ability to influence wins.  If MPJ learns to compete for the ball like Michael Thomas in his prime then that could all change.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Four2itus said:

But, a bigger issue in my opinion, is the culture that Ballard has put his stamp on. Growing and paying your own. If you let M.P. go elsewhere, the G.M.s message gets watered down and weak. If they did the same with Q, the message becomes completely hollow. 

 

I think that they will pay M. P. and by the end of his contract, he will have earned it easily in contrast to the WR market. The guy is built for the NFL grind...both mentally, and physically. 

 

I agree to an extent. But 'paying your own' doesn't mean paying all of your own. You can't keep everyone. Of course, letting go of players like MPJ or Nelson, who are rock solid and embody everything you say you want your program to be, definitely undermines your culture.

[ShowMeTheLayups]

I think Kenny Moore walks. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 hour ago, ShowMeTheLayups said:

I think Kenny Moore walks. 

Yes, and he runs as well.....

 

 

"Walks" where and when?  He has two years left on his contract.

[LiveAndLetAddai]

2 hours ago, Four2itus said:

But, a bigger issue in my opinion, is the culture that Ballard has put his stamp on. Growing and paying your own. If you let M.P. go elsewhere, the G.M.s message gets watered down and weak. If they did the same with Q, the message becomes completely hollow. 

 

I think that they will pay M. P. and by the end of his contract, he will have earned it easily in contrast to the WR market. The guy is built for the NFL grind...both mentally, and physically. 

I agree, and laugh at those who feel Pitt isn't a true number 1.  He had the misfortune of not having training camp, due to covid, in his rookie year.  He then had the crazy leg issue, that also stunted his growth.  Then last year, when every opponent knew he was the main target, put up # 1 WR numbers.  The best is yet to come with Ryan slinging it....

[ShowMeTheLayups]

3 hours ago, LiveAndLetAddai said:

Yes, and he runs as well.....

 

 

"Walks" where and when?  He has two years left on his contract.

 

I just meant he won't be resigned after that. He won't get an increase in salary. He will walk after his contract because the Colts seem to do better finding CB than WR. 

[Hoose]

3 hours ago, LiveAndLetAddai said:

I agree, and laugh at those who feel Pitt isn't a true number 1.  He had the misfortune of not having training camp, due to covid, in his rookie year.  He then had the crazy leg issue, that also stunted his growth.  Then last year, when every opponent knew he was the main target, put up # 1 WR numbers.  The best is yet to come with Ryan slinging it....

I agree. Having other weapons to catch the ball will keep PItt from seemingly having the entire D hanging off him like last year. And with Ryan spreading the ball as expected, he'll have some opportunities for bigger plays. It wouldn't surprise me to see a decrease in catches but an increase in TDs. And then he gets paid........ by the Colts. They're gonna need him for the epic climb up  Championship Mountain. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 hour ago, ShowMeTheLayups said:

 

I just meant he won't be resigned after that. He won't get an increase in salary. He will walk after his contract because the Colts seem to do better finding CB than WR. 

Okay, I am of the same thinking.

 

[IinD]

Thankfully I've stopped caring about the cost of players. They'll figure it out. Every year guys who don't deserve it get some crazy contracts that'll supposedly break their team and it rarely ever does or for maybe a season it hurts the team that cuts/trades them. 

[w87r]

Top target % on team:(top 10)

Kupp 31.7% LAR

Adams 29.6% GB

Jefferson 28.9% MIN

Moore 28.3% CAR

Metcalf 27.2% SEA

Mooney 26.7% CHI

Diggs 26.3% BUF

Andrews 25.9% BAL

Johnson 25.9% PIT

Pittman 25.7% IND

 

7/10 missed playoffs

 

Biggest target differential #1/#2 target:(top 10)

Kupp +102 LAR

Cooks +73 HOU

Jefferson +72 MIN

Adams +69 GB

McLaurin +68 WAS

Johnson +64 PIT

Pittman +60 IND

Brown +53 TEN

Moore +53 CAR

Diggs +52 BUF

 

6/10 missed the playoffs

 

So Pittman is 10th in % of team total targets, 7th in differential from 2nd highest targeted wr on the team.

 

 

Really just wanted to run through this to see where Pittman stood at in these 2 categories. Wentz forced the ball his way all season, and as you can see by those (2) top 10 list 7 and 6 of the 10 missed the playoffs. It doesn't seem to be a great formula for success to have 1 guy dominate targets so much at least based off of 2021 stats. Yes the Rams won it all but as a whole just seems a little more equal distribution is what is needed. Their numbers are a little skewed as well with their #2 going down with injury early and then OBJ coming mid season.

 

I don't see Pittman getting over 25% of the targets next year and not nearly as wide of a differential either. 

 

He will need to more efficient this season to have a better season than last year. Ryan should help with efficiency, but will definitely hurt overall targets and reduce that differential.

 

 

 

 

 

All teams listed below:

Bears - Mooney 140 targets, Kmet 93 targets +47

140/524 total team targets 26.7%

Bengals - Chase 128 targets, Higgins 110 targets +18

128/540 total team targets 23.7%

Bills - Diggs 164 targets, Beasley 112 targets +52

164/623 total team targets 26.3%

Broncos - Sutton 98 targets, Patrick 85 targets +13

98/517 total team targets 19%

Browns - Landry 87 targets, Hooper 61 targets +26

87/499 total team targets 17.4%

Buccaneers - Godwin 127 targets, Evans 114 targets +13

127/716 total team targets 17.7%

Cardinals - Kirk 103 targets, Green 92 targets +11

103/570 total team targets 18.1%

Chargers - Allen 157 targets, Williams 129 targets +28

157/659 total team targets 23.8%

Chiefs - Hill 159 targets, Kelce 134 targets +25

158/637 total team targets 24.8%

Colts - Pittman 129 targets, Pascal 69 targets +60

129/502 total team targets - 25.7%

Commanders - McLaurin 130 targets, Humphries 62 targets +68

130/534 total team targets 24.3%

Cowboys - Lamb 120 targets, Cooper/Shultz 104 targets +16

120/637 total team targets 18.8%

Dolphins - Waddle 140 targets, Gesicki 112 targets +28

140/599 total team targets 23.4%

Eagles - Smith 104 targets, Goedert 76 targets +28

104/468 total team targets 22.2%

Falcons - Pitts 110 targets, R Cage 94 targets +16

110/554 total team targets 19.9%

49ers - Samuel 121 targets, Kittle 94 targets +27

121/497 total team targets 24.3%

Giants - Golladay 76 targets, Ingram 73 targets +3

76/564 total team targets 13.5%

Jaguars - Jones 120 targets, Shenault 100 targets +20

120/583 total team targets 20.6%

Jets - Moore 77 targets, Crowder 71 targets +6

77/581 total team targets 13.3%

Lions - St Brown 119 targets, Hockenson 84 +35

119/565 total team targets 21.1%

Packers - D. Adams 169 targets, Aaron Jones 65 targets

169/570 total team targets - 29.6%

Panthers - Moore 163 targets, Anderson 110 targets +53

163/575 total team targets 28.3%

Patriots - Meyers 126 targets, Henry 75 targets +51

126/524 total team targets 24%

Raiders - Renfrow 128 targets, Waller 93 targets +35

128/603 total team targets 21.2%

Rams - Kupp 191 targets, Jefferson 89 targets +102

191/602 total team targets 31.7%

Ravens - Andrews 153 targets, Brown 146 targets +7

153/591 total targets 25.9%

Saints - Callaway 84 targets, Kamara 67 targets +17

84/474 total team targets 17.7%

Seahawks - Metcalf 129 targets, Lockett 107 targets +22

129/474 total team targets 27.2%

Steelers - Johnson 169 targets, Claypool 105 targets +64

169/653 total team targets 25.9%

Texans - Cooks 134 targets, Collins 60 targets +73

134/523 total team targets 25.6%

Titans - Brown 105 targets, Westbrook-Ikhine 53 targets +

105/522 total team targets 20.1%

Vikings - Jefferson 167 targets, Thielen 95 targets +72

167/578 total team targets 28.9%

 

@EastStreet I posted this over here as I thought it fit better in this topic.

[EastStreet]

Great work @w87r

I do the same type of stuff whenever my mind keeps poking at me on specific things. 

 

I think I did something similar (top 10 or 15 most targeted WRs/TEs) but also factored stats and route participation.

 

Can't remember the specifics, but came away with the feeling that either 1) the WR/TE was just really good and deserved the targets, 2) the other WRs/TEs on the roster were just bad, so the primary was the only comfortable place to go, or 3) both. 

 

When looking at Indy, felt that both Pitt and Pascal both had high snap counts, and both had high route participation. But Pittman was simply much better in just about every quality stat over Pascal. QB rating when targeting was a 20+ point difference. And it was pretty obvious Reich was calling plays with Pittman as the primary read (can't blame him for this) most of the time. 

 

So while you can say Wentz forced too much to Pittman, I'd say with our bad pass pro, Reich's inclination to make Pittman the primary read, and Pittman being the hands down higher quality target, I'm in the #2 camp above. There's a reason why we moved on from Pascal. 

 

I'd also add that our TEs were heavy possession route oriented which simply didn't create much separation. Not much deep or seam at all. Still, MAC's QB rating when targeted was good (100+) even though his route participation was half that of Pittman and Pascal. Jack's QB rating when targeted was pretty good too. Not sure how much either was the primary read, but didn't seem often. And RBs were typically the hot read, a lot more often than primary. I think we'll see the RBs be more primary than hot this season. 

[Rhodelesstraveled]

On 8/5/2022 at 3:04 PM, Four2itus said:

Folks whined when we took Reggie in the draft as most everyone expected defense. 

Folks whined when the team could not replace Reggie.

Now folks are whining at the upcoming cost of the guy they finally got to replace Reggie.

 

Is there a common theme here?

Nope.  What I am saying is trade Q for a draft pick to get a stud WR in the draft.  Keep the costs low at premium positions using this strategy.  Dont pay QB/WR to an OG. Draft WR/QB every yr until you find one

Put LT in there too.