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NFL ‘Next Gen Stats’ Ranked New Colts QB Matt Ryan as League’s 2nd Best Deep Passer of 2021

Matty Ice may bring the consistent deep ball back to Indy...

By Luke Schultheis 

 

PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99

As we know, Ryan’s Falcons didn’t make the playoffs last season, and he was traded to the Colts in March. However, Ryan’s deep-passing stats show how he vastly outperformed expectations under difficult circumstances in 2021. Consider: Atlanta’s top receiver, Calvin Ridley, played in just five games before leaving the teams to focus on his ”mental wellbeing.” Ryan was left to lean on rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, with Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus as his top wideouts. His offensive line was notoriously leaky. And he still tied for the top passing score on deep passes in the entire league.

While we’re only discussing deep throws here — as opposed to every type of pass attempt — it is rather easy to see why the Colts felt Ryan would be the solution to their quarterbacking problems. Those of you who believe “Matty Ice” is washed, over the hill, past his prime, etc., are flat-out wrong. The numbers prove it.

Even at 37 years of age, and with no Julio Jones (*prime) to throw to downfield anymore, the former 2016 NFL MVP continues to be effective at an advanced football age—going deep to his intended receivers.

While Ryan may have lost a little arm strength,(?-to be seen) the numbers back it up that he’s still one of the game’s best at taking calculated shots downfield. Ryan should also be aided by playing half of his regular season games indoors next season at Lucas Oil Stadium—where weather and wind become a non-factor.

With NFL First-Team All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor in his backfield, the Colts don’t need Ryan to carry their offense either—or even be its focal point. He just needs to play smart, accurate, efficient, and winning football. When opposing defenses are overzealous in stacking the box against #28, it would certainly help if he could routinely punish them by going deep for big chunk plays.

Somewhat surprising here is that former Colts starting quarterback, now turned Washington Commander Carson Wentz ranked #7 on this list, who Shook openly acknowledges benefited from a lot of loaded boxes against Taylor this past season. Wentz actually had a solid stretch where he drew a lot of defensive pass interference flags downfield, but oftentimes, it was because those deep balls were slightly underthrown—and his intended receivers had to work their way back to the football through contact. (The notorious T.Y. Hilton overthrow in the Las Vegas Raiders loss late in the season still looms large too).

The hope is that Ryan will better consistently hit his receivers running in stride downfield.

Either way, the Colts clearly upgraded as far as deep passers are concerned ahead of the 2022 campaign, as Ryan’s much anticipated arrival should mark at least a considerable improvement in that regard—as far as accuracy and consistency are concerned

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17 hours ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

it will be hard to have long passes without an elite deep threat receiver. another season and ballard is still going with his missed draft picks

We have two. Campbell and pierce are deep threats. Pittman can be a little of that two but not as fast as the other two.

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30 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Opening play vs Houston, Matt checks and throws to Hines for 75 yards, Touchdown lmao 

That won’t shock me. Last off season Hines mentioned he wanted more opportunities to catch deep balls. It just didn’t work well with Wentz. Ryan used Patterson as a WR last season. He will know how to use Hines.

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1 minute ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

That won’t shock me. Last off season Hines mentioned he wanted more opportunities to catch deep balls. It just didn’t work well with Wentz. Ryan used Patterson as a WR last season. He will know how to use Hines.

TY on a 75 yard TD = opening play The Simpsons GIF by KiwiGo (KGO)- I still think he will be back.

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1 hour ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

That won’t shock me. Last off season Hines mentioned he wanted more opportunities to catch deep balls. It just didn’t work well with Wentz. Ryan used Patterson as a WR last season. He will know how to use Hines.

Well, Patterson actually is a WR who gets used a lot at RB, so that's the difference between him and Hinds. 

 

I suspect that Patterson is a better RB than Hines is WR, but there is always hope.

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17 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Well, Patterson actually is a WR who gets used a lot at RB, so that's the difference between him and Hinds. 

 

I suspect that Patterson is a better RB than Hines is WR, but there is always hope.

Except Hines played A lot of  WR in college.

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11 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Well, Patterson actually is a WR who gets used a lot at RB, so that's the difference between him and Hinds. 

 

I suspect that Patterson is a better RB than Hines is WR, but there is always hope.

They are both offensive weapons.   Hines has more receptions in 2 different seasons than Patterson career highs.  Hines is faster.   He hasn't been used properly.   Ballard agrees.  

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16 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

They are both offensive weapons.   Hines has more receptions in 2 different seasons than Patterson career highs.  Hines is faster.   He hasn't been used properly.   Ballard agrees.  

Hines is about to have a career year. I can't wait for the season to start. We are about to send a statement in the 1st 2 games that we have arrived and we don't lose to bad teams with Matty Ice. The Simpsons GIF by KiwiGo (KGO)

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1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

They are both offensive weapons.   Hines has more receptions in 2 different seasons than Patterson career highs.  Hines is faster.   He hasn't been used properly.   Ballard agrees.  

Yes they are both offensive weapons.  I'm sure that Hines has more receptions than Patterson, especially since Patterson is the better RB.

 

The comment I was responding to was about deep balls, and the assertion was that Ryan used Patterson well, so we can expect it from Hines.   (now she says its because Hines played WR in college, about 5 years ago)

 

Hines catching deep balls this season would be something out of role compared how he has been used so far.  If that's what Ballard is agreeing on, its taken him about four years to notice.

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hines is about to have a career year. I can't wait for the season to start. We are about to send a statement in the 1st 2 games that we have arrived and we don't lose to bad teams with Matty Ice. The Simpsons GIF by KiwiGo (KGO)


Hines may have a career year, but even if he does, I wouldn’t expect it to be by very much. 
 

Twice he’s had 63 receptions.   I would expect him to be around 65-70 tops.   He’s had as many as 89 rushes.    I’d guess he wouldn’t get more than 90-95.   As good as Hines is — and I’m a big Hines fan — every time he gets the ball is a time that another top producer us not….  Whether that’s Taylor, Pittman or any other receiver.   I’m just saying I think there’s a limit, a ceiling for him, and beyond that, we’d be overly reliant on him.  
 

I believe balance is the key to this offense.   So too many touches for ANY PLAYER is not optimum for the offense.  

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Hines may have a career year, but even if he does, I wouldn’t expect it to be by very much. 
 

Twice he’s had 63 receptions.   I would expect him to be around 65-70 tops.   He’s had as many as 89 rushes.    I’d guess he wouldn’t get more than 90-95.   As good as Hines is — and I’m a big Hines fan — every time he gets the ball is a time that another top producer us not….  Whether that’s Taylor, Pittman or any other receiver.   I’m just saying I think there’s a limit, a ceiling for him, and beyond that, we’d be overly reliant on him.  
 

I believe balance is the key to this offense.   So too many touches for ANY PLAYER is not optimum for the offense.  

Yeah I noticed he had 63 catches with Luck and Rivers, so 70 is pushing it I agree. With Wentz he only had 40 Ryan Reynolds Reaction GIF

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I noticed he had 63 catches with Luck and Rivers, so 70 is pushing it I agree. With Wentz he only had 40 Ryan Reynolds Reaction GIF


I think one week late last season I posted here about what did Hines have to do in order to see the football?    Why did we sign Hines to a big contract if we weren’t going to get him the ball?    Beyond frustrating. 
 

Hines should be a very good and effective weapon.   I’d just like him used better…..

 

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8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


I think one week late last season I posted here about what did Hines have to do in order to see the football?    Why did we sign Hines to a big contract if we weren’t going to get him the ball?    Beyond frustrating. 
 

Hines should be a very good and effective weapon.   I’d just like him used better…..

 

Hines has to be real happy now that we got Matt. He will be used a lot. Matt loves his RB's and TE's, Mo might even have a good year.

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2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


I think one week late last season I posted here about what did Hines have to do in order to see the football?    Why did we sign Hines to a big contract if we weren’t going to get him the ball?    Beyond frustrating. 
 

Hines should be a very good and effective weapon.   I’d just like him used better…..

 

3rd and long, up the gut… lol :p

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10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


I think one week late last season I posted here about what did Hines have to do in order to see the football?    Why did we sign Hines to a big contract if we weren’t going to get him the ball?    Beyond frustrating. 
 

Hines should be a very good and effective weapon.   I’d just like him used better…..

 

 

 Hines had a 82.9% catch rate with Rivers. That would be hard to match.

 JMO that we will be very good at attacking the 2nd and 3rd levels keeping D's on their heals.
 With Taylor also pounding them, Hines should be open a lot in the flats for "easy" 6-8 yd gains.  
  Campbell, Granson, and Woods should also be very effective for quickies inside ten yards, so i am so pumped about Matts potential to lead us on an abundance of long drives.

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I’m actually a little curious about how they will use Hines this year.

 

Taylor had 40 rec on 51 targets for 360 yards (9.0 avg)

 

Hines had 40 rec on 57 targets for 310 yards (7.8 avg)

 

He has to distance himself from Taylor in some way because right now using Hines over Taylor just seems inefficient. Not saying there is no place for Hines, but they have to find his niche where he excels over Taylor. 

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1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I’m actually a little curious about how they will use Hines this year.

 

Taylor had 40 rec on 51 targets for 360 yards (9.0 avg)

 

Hines had 40 rec on 57 targets for 310 yards (7.8 avg)

 

He has to distance himself from Taylor in some way because right now using Hines over Taylor just seems inefficient. Not saying there is no place for Hines, but they have to find his niche where he excels over Taylor. 

You do have a point. Because Taylor has turned into a great pass catcher. I would like to know the stat though if Taylor’s were more out of the backfield or as a receiver. Maybe that’s where the difference can be. I doubt they are putting Taylor in the slot.

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11 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

You do have a point. Because Taylor has turned into a great pass catcher. I would like to know the stat though if Taylor’s were more out of the backfield or as a receiver. Maybe that’s where the difference can be. I doubt they are putting Taylor in the slot.

Yeah, I doubt they put Taylor in the slot and that’s most likely where Hines will shine. Just hope they won’t leave Taylor out of the passing game. 

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19 hours ago, DougDew said:

Yes they are both offensive weapons.  I'm sure that Hines has more receptions than Patterson, especially since Patterson is the better RB.

 

The comment I was responding to was about deep balls, and the assertion was that Ryan used Patterson well, so we can expect it from Hines.   (now she says its because Hines played WR in college, about 5 years ago)

 

Hines catching deep balls this season would be something out of role compared how he has been used so far.  If that's what Ballard is agreeing on, its taken him about four years to notice.

Patterson was drafted and has played WR the majority of his career.   He has 320 rush attempts in 9 years.   Hines has 282 in 4. Patterson has 268 receptions in 9 years. Hines has 210 in 4.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Patterson was drafted and has played WR the majority of his career.   He has 320 rush attempts in 9 years.   Hines has 282 in 4. Patterson has 268 receptions in 9 years. Hines has 210 in 4.

 

I agree he was drafted for, and used mostly as a WR.

But last year, ATL changed that. He had 150+ carries. 

In short, they started using him more as a RB or APB.

He had more than twice as many carries as he did targets. And it worked out pretty well. 

And he's now considered ATL's RB1. We'll see how long that last though lol. 

 

Overall, and relative to Hines, I don't think Hines will get close to his 150+ carries last season, but I do hope Hines gets more targets. But at the end of the day, Ryan used CP a lot like we'll use Hines, minus all the carries (because we have JT). 

 

And JT is a very capable receiving target too. His stats were actually better than Hines' in just about every way.

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14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree he was drafted for, and used mostly as a WR.

But last year, ATL changed that. He had 150+ carries. 

In short, they started using him more as a RB or APB.

He had more than twice as many carries as he did targets. And it worked out pretty well. 

And he's now considered ATL's RB1. We'll see how long that last though lol. 

 

Overall, and relative to Hines, I don't think Hines will get close to his 150+ carries last season, but I do hope Hines gets more targets. But at the end of the day, Ryan used CP a lot like we'll use Hines, minus all the carries (because we have JT). 

 

And JT is a very capable receiving target too. His stats were actually better than Hines' in just about every way.

My point is I'll take Hines over Patterson at this point in their careers.

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3 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

My point is I'll take Hines over Patterson at this point in their careers.

 

I agree, given CP's age, and the fact we have JT as RB1, Hines is the better option at this point.

But Patterson does have less drops, and is better between the Ts. 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree, given CP's age, and the fact we have JT as RB1, Hines is the better option at this point.

But Patterson does have less drops, and is better between the Ts. 

Hines would be better between the tackles if frank didn't telegraph it on 3rd and 1.  He shouldn't be used between the tackles anyway.   

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22 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Hines would be better between the tackles if frank didn't telegraph it on 3rd and 1.  He shouldn't be used between the tackles anyway.   

 

Yup, not sure Hines is ever a good choice on 3rd and short lol. 

But size wise, Hines is sub 200. 

Patterson is 220. 

Huge difference. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 3:59 PM, jvan1973 said:

Patterson was drafted and has played WR the majority of his career.   He has 320 rush attempts in 9 years.   Hines has 282 in 4. Patterson has 268 receptions in 9 years. Hines has 210 in 4.

 

 

Reminds me of @EastStreet, when superior judgment comes into play, you recoil into your own world and simply spout off stats as if it settles something.

 

Last year, Patterson was ATLs best RB, and was better at it than Hines.  Stats don't account for the better tackle breaking ability,  power, vision, and stiff arm,  all with a decent amount of agility and speed.  That's the superior judgment part.   Patterson can catch deep balls better than Hines, as Patterson is a WR and has actually done it in the NFL. 

 

There is no stat that you can bring that supports the idea that Hines will be good at catching deep balls from Ryan, which was the assertion I was commenting on.

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6 hours ago, DougDew said:

Reminds me of @EastStreet, when superior judgment comes into play, you recoil into your own world and simply spout off stats as if it settles something.

 

Last year, Patterson was ATLs best RB, and was better at it than Hines.  Stats don't account for the better tackle breaking abilitypower, vision, and stiff arm,  all with a decent amount of agility and speed.  That's the superior judgment part.   Patterson can catch deep balls better than Hines, as Patterson is a WR and has actually done it in the NFL. 

 

There is no stat that you can bring that supports the idea that Hines will be good at catching deep balls from Ryan, which was the assertion I was commenting on.

 

lol. To the bolded. Stats actually do account if you're talking about broken tackles rushing. 

 

Hines had a better broken tackle %. 

Hines 13%, Patterson 5%. 

 

Patterson is 20+ lbs over Hines, so you'd hope he'd have more power though.

But Hines' yards after contact are better as well (2.3 vs 1.9)

 

You'd also assume Patterson would be a better deep ball receiver, given his much longer history as a WR. 

I guess we'll see this season if Reich actually allows some deep passing. 

 

But superior is to judgement, like your board reps is to your post count lol. 

 

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18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

lol. To the bolded. Stats actually do account if you're talking about broken tackles rushing. 

 

Hines had a better broken tackle %. 

Hines 13%, Patterson 5%. 

 

Patterson is 20+ lbs over Hines, so you'd hope he'd have more power though.

But Hines' yards after contact are better as well (2.3 vs 1.9)

 

You'd also assume Patterson would be a better deep ball receiver, given his much longer history as a WR. 

I guess we'll see this season if Reich actually allows some deep passing. 

 

But superior is to judgement, like your board reps is to your post count lol. 

 

What is a "broken tackle" in the cult world of analytics, and did Hines have more broken arm-tackles from underweight DBs than Patterson, or more broken body tackles from LBs and DLs.? Did they account for the times Patterson was gassed because he was ATLs primary weapon?

 

Like most football statistics, they are hopelessly ungranular as to have any meaning. 

 

Not counting the times he lined up on the boundary but didn't run a deep route, and the number of deep patterns he ran where he was not thrown to (there was also one in the Kurt Warner thread) and the deep routes he ran while in Minny, his 2021 highlights show three meaningful deep catches.

 

 

I responded to the assertion that was made:  Ryan should do well throwing deep balls to Hines because he did it well with Patterson last year.  It has little correlation.  Its very evident that it does not. 

 

But the lack of correlation doesn't mean that Hines won't have success catching deep balls from Ryan.  

 

Amazing that argumentative members have strung this out over dozens of sentences and several posts. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

What is a "broken tackle" in the cult world of analytics, and did Hines have more broken arm-tackles from underweight DBs than Patterson, or more broken body tackles from LBs and DLs.? Did they account for the times Patterson was gassed because he was ATLs primary weapon?

 

Like most football statistics, they are hopelessly ungranular as to have any meaning. 

 

Not counting the times he lined up on the boundary but didn't run a deep route, and the number of deep patterns he ran where he was not thrown to (there was also one in the Kurt Warner thread) and the deep routes he ran while in Minny, his 2021 highlights show three meaningful deep catches.

 

 

I responded to the assertion that was made:  Ryan should do well throwing deep balls to Hines because he did it well with Patterson last year.  It has little correlation.  Its very evident that it does not. 

 

But the lack of correlation doesn't mean that Hines won't have success catching deep balls from Ryan.  

 

Amazing that argumentative members have strung this out over dozens of sentences and several posts. 

 

Dude, you're dancing yet again.

 

You said something again, which was simply inaccurate. So you go into dance mode attacking the accuracy and relevance of very basic stats. 

 

The broken tackle and yards after contact stats have been around for a long time. Had they fortified your position, you no doubt would have used them yourself. But hey, be you. 

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