PFF 2022 Preview/Ranks Summary (Colts): Anything surprise you?

[EastStreet]

 

PFF has a decent amount of content that contains their annual preseason ranks. I went through all they have thus far. 

 

I don't think they are quite done yet, but they have a ton already available as feebies. 

 

Here's the main summary page. I expect more unit rankings, so check back if you don't find what you're looking for.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-season-preview-guide

 

Where the Colts stack up in various projections (from top to bottom on the summary page).

• Power Rankings: 15th (Titans 17th)
• Individual ranks/tiers
  • QBs: Ryan #5
  • RBs: Taylor #1
  • WRs: No Colts WRs listed
  • TEs: No Colts TEs listed
  • OTs: Smith #15
  • OGs: Nelson #2
  • OC: Kelly #11 (they acknowledge his 2021 was bad, and his 2022 projection of 11th assumes he's almost 20pt better than 2021??? lol)
  • iDL: Defo #4
  • Edge Rusher: No Colts listed (Ngakoue no even listed should give him a huge chip)
  • LB: Leonard #2
  • NB: Moore #1 
  • CB: Gilmore #16 (and acknowledges he has the 3rd best WAR rating since 2016 of all CBs. Ramsey and Hayward are the top 2)
  • Safety: No Colts listed
• Unit ranks (likely more to come
  • RB: #2
  • Receiving (all pass catchers): #25
  • OL: #10 (said we'll be much higher if Pinter and Pryor simply match their grades from last season)
  • DL: #11
  • LB and Secondary unit ranks don't look to be available yet, but should be in the next week or so. I'll update if I take another break, from my break lol. 
• Misc
  • Deep Passers: Ryan #14 (Wentz is #8)
  • Colts were listed as one of the 5 most underrated teams
  • HC Ranks: Reich #9
  • Best O Play Callers (yes it includes HCs): No Colts mentioned
  • Best D Play Callers: No Colts mentioned
  • Potential AFC Breakout Candidates: Paye listed as one of 6
  • Highest Checkdown Rate: Ryan #4 (#13 on 3rd down)
    • Note this is not necessarily a good thing, or bad. Recommend reading the article to see where others are placed
    • Wentz was not among the highest or lowest (for those that believe he never took the check down)
  •  Top 25 under 25: Taylor was #3
  • CBs in press coverage
    • Rhodes was #6 in press coverage grade (75.9)
    • Passer rating when targeted: Gilmore is #7 best (Rhodes was #9)
    • Note Kenny had the 9th most press coverage snaps, with a 58.7 coverage grade (ouch)
  • Best WRs against Press Coverage: No Colts listed
  • Breakout rookie (ROY) candidates: No Colts listed

[Myles]

The have Matt Ryan as the number 5 ranked QB.   That makes me question anything the put up.  

[Solid84]

Ryan as #5 is surprising to me. I think that’s the very best scenario if he truly fits our O like we hope and everything just clicks. 

 

Thought Braden Smith would he higher, but I honestly don’t know how he compares to other linemen or RT, so, yeah. Nelson as #2 assumes he’ll be healthy this season. Kelly is optimistic - I think we’ve seen the best of him. 
 

A bit surprised Ngakoue isn’t ranked - that’s gotta rankle with him. 
 

Other than that I think it’s pretty spot on. 

[Myles]

Mahomes

Rodgers

Brady

Herbert

Burrow

Wilson

Murray

Josh Allen

Those are just some that I would put before Ryan.   There are several others that might be.  

 

 

[TheShadow]

45 minutes ago, Myles said:

The have Matt Ryan as the number 5 ranked QB.   That makes me question anything the put up.  

These rankings are by tier, Ryan is in the over 30 tier.

[LiveAndLetAddai]

  Ryan's rank surprised me as well.  I think if Rhodes is still available, I believe he is, the Colts should have him on their radar, especially due to the Moore situation.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

Mahomes

Rodgers

Brady

Herbert

Burrow

Wilson

Murray

Josh Allen

Those are just some that I would put before Ryan.   There are several others that might be.  

 

 

Here is my list going into 2022, I am just talking for 1 year = 2022 not all-time on who I would take:

 

1. Mahomes

 

2. Rodgers

 

3. Allen

 

4. Brady - I still would take him 4th  

 

5. Wilson

 

6. Stafford

 

7. Burrow

 

8. Herbert - Great young talent, Ryan could have the better year, but not sure??

 

9. Matt Ryan - Ryan here is probably accurate. You have 7 of 8 ahead of Ryan that I do regarding 2022, so we agree on most things. I like Matt better than Murray - Murray is good but so inconsistent, I had Stafford in my top 8 instead. Just for 1 year I like Ryan better than Derek Carr by a hair, Lamar Jackson - doesn't seem happy in Baltimore - he may play good or bad (former MVP), or Dak Prescott - good QB but never proven anything when it counts and we have had a big sample size by now. I have a feeling Watson's goose is cooked so I didn't include him. I was hearing last night on CBS radio at work that he may be suspended for the whole year. Baker has to be laughing his butt off behind closed doors. Browns are the laughing stock of the league right now. Matt Ryan is better than Ryan Tannehill as well so don't even get me started on that. I wouldn't trust Tannehill to win me a big game in my lifetime. Matt is definitely an upgrade from Carson Wentz for this season. 

 

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, Myles said:

The have Matt Ryan as the number 5 ranked QB.   That makes me question anything the put up.  

Recommend reading the full article.

2 hours ago, TheShadow said:

These rankings are by tier, Ryan is in the over 30 tier.

 

Yes and no. I'll just point out that the Tier also says "playing at an elite level", and that there are QBs over 30 in the other lower tiers. 

 

Here's the paste of the full Tier A and Tier B ranks

 

TIER A: GOLDEN OLDIES — PLAYING AT AN ELITE LEVEL OVER THE AGE OF 30

 

1. TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2. AARON RODGERS, GREEN BAY PACKERS

 

Over the past five seasons, Brady and Rodgers rank first and third in average WAR (wins above replacement) per season at 4.39 and 3.14 respectively. Rodgers’ 2020 season is the highest graded season between the two over the last five seasons (95.1), but Brady holds the next four spots.  

 

3. RUSSELL WILSON, DENVER BRONCOS
4. MATTHEW STAFFORD, LOS ANGELES RAMS
5. MATT RYAN, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

 

A case could be made to rank these three quarterbacks in any order. Wilson has the highest average WAR per season among three over the last five seasons. He just barely beats out Ryan’s 3.04 WAR per season with his 3.07. Stafford is a bit lower (2.51) but just had his best season (3.93). 

 

Wilson owns the top three seasons in PFF grade between the three with his 2019, 2020 and 2018 seasons coming in with elite grades. The five-year cut off does remove Ryan’s 2016 season (92.2) which would be the highest. Before Wilson’s injury in 2021, he was flirting with the top spot in PFF grade for the season before coming back and seeing his grade drop post-injury. 

 

Stafford’s highest grade in the sample is 86.1, but he is ascending while Ryan might be descending. This is why Stafford projects to be barely above Ryan. 

 

TIER B: SHOOTING STARS — THE BEST UNDER THE AGE OF 30

 

1. PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS

 

The gap between these two top-tier quarterbacks shrunk a bit in 2020 after Allen exploded into an MVP candidate after two poor years to start his career in Buffalo. The gap shrunk again once Allen continued to play at an elite level in 2021 while Mahomes suffered the worst season of his career. Mahomes’ 80.4 grade in 2021 was his lowest in a full season by just about 10 points. Allen has now posted back-to-back elite 90-plus-graded seasons while Mahomes posted three straight from 2018-2020.

 

3. JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
4. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS
5. LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS

 

Each quarterback on this list has had one elite 90-plus-graded season, and Jackson’s 2019 season culminated in an MVP award. Since then, Jackson posted just 79.3 and then 70.2 overall grades over the last two years, respectively. That’s why Jackson slips to fifth in this tier. Herbert and Burrow both posted solid rookie campaigns before breaking out in their sophomore seasons. Herbert gets is rated slightly higher because when looking at their entire careers thus far, his 3.25 WAR per season edges Burrow’s 2.98.

 

[stitches]

Most of those sound reasonable. I don't have huge disagreements with their rankings.

[Matabix]

DL #11 OL #10. Can't wait for them 2 to go head to head in training camp. 

Why not sign Rhodes, he could really put us over the top. Almost would rather have him than a vet WR. Give him a 2 year as well. Gilmore, Rhodes and Kenny in nickel. That would be bad *. Pittman fighting through that 2ndary in TC. We can truly make ourselves better by competing against ourselves. Reggie won't let the receivers take anything from the DBs but rather dish out some hurt.

Been following Colts since they moved to Indy but can't remember me getting this excited about TC. Hopefully Leonard can get involved and add fuel to the fire. 

Man I'm so hyped right now.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Matabix said:

DL #11 OL #10. Can't wait for them 2 to go head to head in training camp. 

Why not sign Rhodes, he could really put us over the top. Almost would rather have him than a vet WR. Give him a 2 year as well. Gilmore, Rhodes and Kenny in nickel. That would be bad *. Pittman fighting through that 2ndary in TC. We can truly make ourselves better by competing against ourselves. Reggie won't let the receivers take anything from the DBs but rather dish out some hurt.

Been following Colts since they moved to Indy but can't remember me getting this excited about TC. Hopefully Leonard can get involved and add fuel to the fire. 

Man I'm so hyped right now.

 

I wouldn't mind offering Rhodes a one year deal. His health really became an issue last season. I'd say there's only one better CB still available than him, maybe 2. 

 

IMO, we're going to be shopping for DBs and WRs during cut downs. 

[Matabix]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I wouldn't mind offering Rhodes a one year deal. His health really became an issue last season. I'd say there's only one better CB still available than him, maybe 2. 

 

IMO, we're going to be shopping for DBs and WRs during cut downs. 

I think we can get Rhodes for cheaper, having Gilmore takes pressure off Rhodes. Having both helps the pass rush. In dime situations name a better 2ndary.

[sb41champs]

Just as with any other media - opinions are opinions and nothing more.

 

As the season begins - and - there is statistical date of varying sorts - the information shared will be more analytical in nature.

 

I have my personal opinions about the Colts the coming season - wish I could get someone to pay me the BIG $$$ to share them publicly.

[JediXMan]

8 hours ago, Myles said:

Mahomes

Rodgers

Brady

Herbert

Burrow

Wilson

Murray

Josh Allen

Those are just some that I would put before Ryan.   There are several others that might be.  

 

 

 

Murray is one of the most overrated QBs in the league. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, JediXMan said:

 

Murray is one of the most overrated QBs in the league. 

^^^^^^^^^^^^ THIS!! ^^^^^^^^^^^^
 

100 percent with you.      

[Boondoggle]

Top 5 for Ryan is too high for sure because he doesn't have the weapons some of these other QBs have.  He's got a ton of inexperience around him and that will tell.  Take a look at some of these WR groups.  It's a significant deficiency for him in comparing him to some other QBs 1 to 1.

 

This is PFF not being able to get their model correct in terms of projecting what a great fit Ryan is for Frank's version of the WCO.  He's going to benefit greatly from that and Taylor in the backfield.  But the limits will be real.

 

 

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, Matabix said:

I think we can get Rhodes for cheaper, having Gilmore takes pressure off Rhodes. Having both helps the pass rush. In dime situations name a better 2ndary.

 

There are 3 CBs I'd look at. Rhodes, Harris, and King. None should cost a lot. 

Rhodes and Harris are both 30+, but both are still solid enough give some good reps when healthy. 

King is like 27. 6-3, 4.4s, and very agile. I think he'd fit well with Gus's system. 

I think all three could shore up the DB group in one way or other.

If the Kenny Moore situation doesn't get resolved by the start of TC, I'd definitely pick up one of those guys. King could probably take NB or outside. Rhodes and Harris are probably limited to outside but IMO Rodgers can take slot. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 hours ago, JediXMan said:

 

Murray is one of the most overrated QBs in the league. 

Yeah for just 1 or 2 years I would take Matt over him. He is just much younger.

[Matabix]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

There are 3 CBs I'd look at. Rhodes, Harris, and King. None should cost a lot. 

Rhodes and Harris are both 30+, but both are still solid enough give some good reps when healthy. 

King is like 27. 6-3, 4.4s, and very agile. I think he'd fit well with Gus's system. 

I think all three could shore up the DB group in one way or other.

If the Kenny Moore situation doesn't get resolved by the start of TC, I'd definitely pick up one of those guys. King could probably take NB or outside. Rhodes and Harris are probably limited to outside but IMO Rodgers can take slot. 

Just saying Rhodes cause of communication within the secondary. He's played with most in secondary. That's why I think we lost the ravens game. DBs dropping off and we ended up with PS guys who weren't use to the communication. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Matabix said:

Just saying Rhodes cause of communication within the secondary. He's played with most in secondary. That's why I think we lost the ravens game. DBs dropping off and we ended up with PS guys who weren't use to the communication. 

 

IMO we lost the Baltimore game for multiple reasons, but I don't really fault the young pups called into action... Wentz had a very good game so he can't be scapegoated lol... 

 

Top reasons in no particular order....

• We went totally prevent in the 2H on D
• Blackmon, Moore, and Oke all had truly awful coverage games. Got picked on all day and abused by Andrews and Brown. Andrews made them look foolish. And Kenny missed like 3 or 4 tackles IIRC. 
• Fisher was on skates all day getting abused by a rookie. If I had to pick one play that lost the game for us, it would be him getting boat raced for a strip sack when we were about ready to score on like the 15 (at min in easy FG position). Those points would have likely kept us going into OT....

[EastStreet]

 

A few more PFF additions.

 

• Cap Health: Colts #4 (Cinci, Wash, and NE are 1-3)
  • https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-three-year-salary-cap-analysis-32-nfl-teams-2022
  • recommend reading to understand the components that went into the ranking
• Leonard is Indy's best draft value (bang for the buck and draft position) since 2006
  • https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-every-teams-best-value-draft-picks-since-2006

 

Still no unit rankings for LB and DB.

 

They also ranked the QBs in short passing (two grades below, accuracy and accuracy-plus). I've already posted the deep passing ranks (https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-2021-starting-qbs-deep-passing-performance-arizona-cardinals-kyler-murray )

 

 

Short passing

ACCURACY %

• 1. TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS | Accuracy Percentage: 71.3%
  • On short passes, the Alabama product went 129-for-169 for 1,025 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. His 78.0 short passing grade ranked eighth of the 37 quarterbacks who attempted at least 72 short passes in 2021.
• 2. RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS | Accuracy Percentage: 71.0%
  • The Titans' starting signal-caller completed 193 of his 231 short attempts. Through the 2021 regular season, he passed for 1,658 yards and 13 touchdowns en route to a league-leading 88.0 short passing grade.
• 3. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS | Accuracy Percentage: 69.3%
  • On his way to an AFC championship victory, Burrow completed 186 of his 240 short pass attempts in 2021 for 1,858 yards and 12 touchdowns.
• 4. JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | Accuracy Percentage: 68.4%
  • Herbert recorded the most short pass attempts (315) of any quarterback on the list. That resulted in 240 completions for 2,131 yards and 16 touchdowns. He was one of only six quarterbacks who recorded zero turnover-worthy plays on short pass attempts.
• 5. TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | Accuracy Percentage: 67.7%
  • The “G.O.A.T.” was a touchdown machine in the short game — the Bucs’ quarterback recorded 24 short passing touchdowns, the most of any quarterback last season at that depth.

ACCURACY-PLUS %

• 1. KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS | Accuracy-Plus Percentage: 20.8%
  • The Vikings’ quarterback completed 166 of his 218 short passing attempts for 1,292 yards, 11 touchdowns and a 101.3 passer rating.
• 2. JIMMY GAROPPOLO, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS | Accuracy-Plus Percentage: 20.5%
  • Jimmy G completed 76.4% of his 199 attempts for 1,424 yards, six touchdowns and just two interceptions. His average of 7.2 yards per short passing attempt tied for third among the 37 eligible quarterbacks.
• 3. JARED GOFF, DETROIT LIONS | Accuracy-Plus Percentage: 20.2%
  • The former Rams quarterback threw just one interception on short attempts. That was his only turnover-worthy play, which contributed to a lowly turnover-worthy play rate of 0.4% — the best non-zero mark. Goff went 183-for-233 for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns on such throws.
• 4. TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS | Accuracy-Plus Percentage: 19.6%
  • The vet beat other quarterbacks in most metrics by a country mile. His 86.0 short passing grade ranked second, and he went 222-of-279 for 1,857 yards and a top-rated 121.6 passer rating at that depth in 2021.
• 5. RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS | Accuracy-Plus Percentage: 19.3%
  • Also appearing in the accuracy percentage short-range category in second place, Tannehill tied for third in yards per attempt (7.2) on short throws. He also recorded an 83.5% completion rate, which was the best of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 72 short passing attempts.

[EastStreet]

A few adds.

 

 

• PFF ranks Indy's LB group #2, despite being pretty meh on Oke. (TN is #16)

  • While Bobby Okereke’s grade has fluctuated over the years, Darius Leonard — the star of the Colts' defense — has been rock solid since exploding onto the scene as a rookie. He has yet to post a sub-70.0 grade, with three out of his four years coming in above 78.0. Okereke is a solid stand-in next to Leonard. He put forth a monster rookie season in 2019 but hasn’t quite attained the same highs in subsequent seasons. 

• PFF ranks our secondary as #23 (TN is #11) 

  • Before the Stephon Gilmore signing, this unit was trending toward uncertainty. Gilmore was still very much an elite cornerback when healthy last season, although it wasn’t widely talked about because he was doing it on a hapless Panthers team. He finished with the ninth-highest coverage grade in the NFL.

  • Gilmore is ranked the 16th best CB in the league

• Misc

  • PFF has Rock Ya Sin as the 3rd best CB in man coverage last season... 

  • PFF has Pascal as the 6th worst WR in man coverage last season

  • Colts #15 in the latest power rankings

[DougDew]

It seems that more Colts are bent towards being over ranked than under ranked.  Ryan, Kelly, Moore seem over ranked to me.  Smith is probably lumped into all OTs, including LTs, so #15 out of 64 is pretty good.

 

The idea that Wentz "never" took checkdowns was not about "the number of".  Gotta see beyond the stats.  Its about when and where.  When he did not take them, they seemed both very obvious situations where he should have, and his decision not to take the check down resulted in un-positive plays at critical times.   The fact that other QBs may have been worse at it doesn't then mean that Wentz was good enough at it.

 

If PFF thinks the Colts pass catchers and pass rushers rank that low, I wonder how they rank the team better than TEN and say that they are underrated.  Both units seem to need a break out year for the Colts to advance the W/L record much.