Should Frank Reich be fired if we don't win the AFC South?

[EastStreet]

On 6/25/2022 at 11:22 PM, DougDew said:

My goodness.  You inject so much bias into your analytics it makes me think you are just another phony stat guy.

 

Choose a point in the data set where we are at the peak of making the playoffs, then judge Frank by measuring at the start of the down turn.

 

A fairer way.....,considering that we had huge holes in the playoff caliber level of talent at WR, TE, LT, Pass Rush, Safeties, and a wonky QB all year, it was probably great coaching that got us into playoff consideration in the first place.

 

Ah, so we're supposed to ignore total team collapses. Probably need to ignore who brought the wonky QB to Indy too. 

[colts89]

No. Please keep Matt Ryan around for two years. If he can't make the playoffs after 2 years with an established QB, then I'd think the Colts should look somewhere else.

 

If he doesn't make the playoffs this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on the hot seat and I'd supporting moving on if it was more based on the offense not performing then it is our D. I don't care about winning the division as much as long as they make the playoffs. The Titans are a great regular season team as long as their D and OL hold up and they follow Vrabel's lead so the division will always be close 

 

[DougDew]

11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Ah, so we're supposed to ignore total team collapses. Probably need to ignore who brought the wonky QB to Indy too. 

You say collapse, I say come down to earth.  Who knows what would have happened if the wonky Qb didn't regularly ignore the check downs that were there via play design.   I was told by this forum when Grigson was here, that the buck stops with the GM.   Frank's not a QB whisperer, nor should be fired for not being one. 

 

In the end, I'll reserve judgement of Frank whenever he finally has playoff caliber players occupying important positions to coach.  I can tell that we all know this by the comments made during the offseason about what positions needed upgrading.  Some just want to ignore what they learn because it runs against their narrative.

[EastStreet]

18 hours ago, DougDew said:

You say collapse, I say come down to earth.  Who knows what would have happened if the wonky Qb didn't regularly ignore the check downs that were there via play design.   I was told by this forum when Grigson was here, that the buck stops with the GM.   Frank's not a QB whisperer, nor should be fired for not being one. 

 

In the end, I'll reserve judgement of Frank whenever he finally has playoff caliber players occupying important positions to coach.  I can tell that we all know this by the comments made during the offseason about what positions needed upgrading.  Some just want to ignore what they learn because it runs against their narrative.

 

So Jax is "earth"..... 

Wow.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I don't think I have ever seen a poll that is 50/50 in here through 90 votes at 45-45. A lot of mixed opinions. Frank has had his good moments and I think he is top 15 regarding coaches, 13-15 IMO. He got a raw deal when Andrew retired. I do think this is the year we should finally make some serious noise though. We have a good roster and a hall of fame QB. Let's say we don't win the division, who should get the blame at this point unless Matt just stinks it up, I doubt that will be the case.

[Jared Cisneros]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I don't think I have ever seen a poll that is 50/50 in here through 90 votes at 45-45. A lot of mixed opinions. Frank has had his good moments and I think he is top 15 regarding coaches, 13-15 IMO. He got a raw deal when Andrew retired. I do think this is the year we should finally make some serious noise though. We have a good roster and a hall of fame QB. Let's say we don't win the division, who should get the blame at this point unless Matt just stinks it up, I doubt that will be the case.

If we don't win the division, Reich should get the blame. There's plenty of proof by now that Ballard is a good GM. There's plenty of proof that a large number of the players Ballard has drafted are very good to elite players. This is a well-rounded team. There is little proof that Reich is a good, consistent coach since he became one in 2018. The QBs have been inconsistent for him, but one was Andrew Luck, and two others were guys he worked with before in Rivers and Wentz. He also has insurance in Foles (whom he's also worked with) in case Matt Ryan struggles or gets injured. 

 

We have not won a division title with Reich or Ballard, we have won 1 playoff game, and this team gets absolutely destroyed by good to elite QBs. I'm convinced most of the people who want to keep Reich are some of the older crowd that "appeals to authority", likes Reich because of his character, and doesn't want to change what we have because of fear of change. The other part of that voting are possibly casuals who don't know any better and think he's doing a good job because of what the media outlets say and rankings that they see online.

 

The reality is, we should expect some boneheaded calls from Reich every game this season, and he's going to make winning games more difficult then they should be. Like I said in another thread, he's my 21st ranked coach in the NFL for a reason, and heavily overrated among not only Colts fans, but the media as well. 

[AwesomeAustin]

On 6/15/2022 at 6:19 PM, PRnum1 said:

Were it not for Frank, I think it should have been

 

2017: Brissett

2018: Luck

2019: Brissett

2020: Rivers

2021: Rivers (Colts draft Fields/Jones)

2022:  Fields/Jones after one year of tutelage under Rivers

I thought it should be:

 

2017: Brissett

2018: Luck

2019: Brissett

2020: Rivers (Colts draft Herbert/Tua)

2021: Herbert/Tua

2022:  Herbert/Tua

 

I strongly feel we should have traded into the Top 5 and had our choice between those two. I believe the front office thought we were ready to contend with a veteran.  Hindsight says if we got Herbert we would be discussing SBs. If we chose Tua we could be discussing who the next GM and coach should be...or maybe Tua does well in this system. 
 

The wildcard is Matt Ryan.  If we are competitive and have a shot to win in the 2nd round of the playoffs plus draft a QB of the future, it is all a wash. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I thought it should be:

 

2017: Brissett

2018: Luck

2019: Brissett

2020: Rivers (Colts draft Herbert/Tua)

2021: Herbert/Tua

2022:  Herbert/Tua

 

I strongly feel we should have traded into the Top 5 and had our choice between those two. I believe the front office thought we were ready to contend with a veteran.  Hindsight says if we got Herbert we would be discussing SBs. If we chose Tua we could be discussing who the next GM and coach should be...or maybe Tua does well in this system. 
 

The wildcard is Matt Ryan.  If we are competitive and have a shot to win in the 2nd round of the playoffs plus draft a QB of the future, it is all a wash. 

I am not big fan of Tua as a player. I just don't see him doing much as a pro. He even has Hill now but still don't see it. IMO they won't even make the playoffs. Herbert I will give you, he is very good as of now. I really didn't think Herbert would be good but he is, Tua = MEH.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

If we don't win the division, Reich should get the blame. There's plenty of proof by now that Ballard is a good GM. There's plenty of proof that a large number of the players Ballard has drafted are very good to elite players. This is a well-rounded team. There is little proof that Reich is a good, consistent coach since he became one in 2018. The QBs have been inconsistent for him, but one was Andrew Luck, and two others were guys he worked with before in Rivers and Wentz. He also has insurance in Foles (whom he's also worked with) in case Matt Ryan struggles or gets injured. 

 

We have not won a division title with Reich or Ballard, we have won 1 playoff game, and this team gets absolutely destroyed by good to elite QBs. I'm convinced most of the people who want to keep Reich are some of the older crowd that "appeals to authority", likes Reich because of his character, and doesn't want to change what we have because of fear of change. The other part of that voting are possibly casuals who don't know any better and think he's doing a good job because of what the media outlets say and rankings that they see online.

 

The reality is, we should expect some boneheaded calls from Reich every game this season, and he's going to make winning games more difficult then they should be. Like I said in another thread, he's my 21st ranked coach in the NFL for a reason, and heavily overrated among not only Colts fans, but the media as well. 

When Reich has had 2 QB's that can actually play (Luck in 2018, Rivers in 2020) he is 21-11 with a playoff win and we even had Josh Allen on the ropes in 2020 with an aging Rivers. Lets see what he does with Ryan. Carson Wentz played like garbage in clutch time in many games, any competent QB would not a blow a 14-0 lead which we had vs Tennessee. Any competent QB would not lose 2 games in a row to end the season against teams we had no  business losing too with a chance to clinch a playoff spot. People can blame Reich for those losses but I watched both games and Wentz was missing guys wide open. If he hits TY against the Raiders, game over and that was a out and a an easy 10 yard pass that he overthrew by a yard. With Peyton, Luck, or Rivers we go 11-6 last year at worse. I think Peyton goes 13-4. Matt Ryan will at least go 11-6 if we stay healthy.

 

Having said all of that, if we don't win the division I can't defend anymore. This is the best team we have had since 2009.

[Myles]

On 6/21/2022 at 12:44 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am a Frank Reich fan, glad he is our coach. I think he is top 15 going into 2022. Love his style = going for it on 4th when many in here bash him for it, he gets along with the players, etc.. what?? Of course, that won't be Frank's fault  . I am saying if our star players stay healthy we should win the division.

You may be right, but not me.   Only in certain situations like being up by 14 points at midfield and deciding to go for it on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 with a QB the coach cannot control to run Taylor on either play.  A punt was the play call to make in that case.  

 

If we lose 15 games this season Ballard will only be a season or 2 out of being a top 10 GM.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

35 minutes ago, Myles said:

You may be right, but not me.   Only in certain situations like being up by 14 points at midfield and deciding to go for it on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 with a QB the coach cannot control to run Taylor on either play.  A punt was the play call to make in that case.  

 

If we lose 15 games this season Ballard will only be a season or 2 out of being a top 10 GM.  

We won't lose 15 games. 11-6 or 12-5 Division Champs, we will be fine 

[AwesomeAustin]

59 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am not big fan of Tua as a player. I just don't see him doing much as a pro. He even has Hill now but still don't see it. IMO they won't even make the playoffs. Herbert I will give you, he is very good as of now. I really didn't think Herbert would be good but he is, Tua = MEH.

I agree, Tua has underwhelmed.  He really doesnt have any excuses now bc he has weapons. Im interested to see if he makes the next step this year.
 

I also can respect that Ballard and Reich didnt think high enough of either player to go up and get them. I just wonder if it was they didnt like either player or they truly thought Rivers and Buckner would be the couple players we needed to get over the hump. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, AwesomeAustin said:

I agree, Tua has underwhelmed.  He really doesnt have any excuses now bc he has weapons. Im interested to see if he makes the next step this year.
 

I also can respect that Ballard and Reich didnt think high enough of either player to go up and get them. I just wonder if it was they didnt like either player or they truly thought Rivers and Buckner would be the couple players we needed to get over the hump. 

I am not sure many thought Herbert would be as good as he is, I didn't, I admit it. So if I was GM I would've missed that one. Buckner is an all-pro and Rivers gave us a good season so it was still a good offseason. Of course I would rather have Herbert now if we could've traded up to get him but I like what we have in 2022 with Ryan and our Taylor and the crew. Ryan is getting older but he still has a couple of good years left. Our D needs to step it up when it counts too in 2022.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I agree, Tua has underwhelmed.  He really doesnt have any excuses now bc he has weapons. Im interested to see if he makes the next step this year.
 

I also can respect that Ballard and Reich didnt think high enough of either player to go up and get them. I just wonder if it was they didnt like either player or they truly thought Rivers and Buckner would be the couple players we needed to get over the hump. 

 

I'm not the biggest Tua fan, but his stats have been sneaky good in a lot of areas.

 

I'd say playmakers weren't really the issue, at least last season. It was by far and away his OL. They were were the worst OL in the league last season. They added Armstead at LT, and if he stays healthy, Eichenberg moves to RT. They also upgraded at LG, which was probably the worst spot last season. 

 

In short, their OL should be at least middle of the road this season, up from being the worst in the NFL last season. And that should be huge for Tua. Aside from Waddle and Hill, their WRs are pretty meh, so if one goes down, they're in trouble. Gesicki is solid at TE. 

[throwing BBZ]

29 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I agree, Tua has underwhelmed.  He really doesnt have any excuses now bc he has weapons. Im interested to see if he makes the next step this year.
 

I also can respect that Ballard and Reich didnt think high enough of either player to go up and get them. I just wonder if it was they didnt like either player or they truly thought Rivers and Buckner would be the couple players we needed to get over the hump. 

 

  It is very possible they did like Herbert, but SD wasn't giving up the pick.
  Herbert showed me some amazing future MVP type stuff. lol 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am not big fan of Tua as a player. I just don't see him doing much as a pro. He even has Hill now but still don't see it. IMO they won't even make the playoffs. Herbert I will give you, he is very good as of now. I really didn't think Herbert would be good but he is, Tua = MEH.

 

Coming out of college I had some questions about Tua like arm strength, possible slow delivery and durability. 

Now as a pro, I don't see him ever being better than a bottom quarter QB (25th-32nd)

 

I seen a few games Herbert played in college and didn't think he'd be very good to elite.....I was wrong.lol

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Coming out of college I had some questions about Tua like arm strength, possible slow delivery and durability. 

Now as a pro, I don't see him ever being better than a bottom quarter QB (25th-32nd)

 

I seen a few games Herbert played in college and didn't think he'd be very good to elite.....I was wrong.lol

Regarding Herbert I didn't see it either but I was wrong. I have missed on some, I didn't think Joey Bosa would that good either. I never thought Leonard would be great after we drafted him! Some guys surprise. I am just glad we took Peyton over Leaf, I really thought Leaf would be good but I did want Peyton after seeing at how each talked to the media before the draft and Peyton being a son of a former QB helped. Archie was good but just played on bad teams. As far as physical tools and talent, Leaf and Peyton were 50/50. I remember when we drafted Peyton a friend of mine was so upset, he said same ol' Colts  . He said Leaf will dominate  . That is how close it was. I told him Peyton may not be great but we chose the right person, little did I know Peyton would be top 3 of all-time  

[LJpalmbeacher2]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Regarding Herbert I didn't see it either but I was wrong. I have missed on some, I didn't think Joey Bosa would that good either. I never thought Leonard would be great after we drafted him! Some guys surprise. I am just glad we took Peyton over Leaf, I really thought Leaf would be good but I did want Peyton after seeing at how each talked to the media before the draft and Peyton being a son of a former QB helped. Archie was good but just played on bad teams. As far as physical tools and talent, Leaf and Peyton were 50/50. I remember when we drafted Peyton a friend of mine was so upset, he said same ol' Colts  . He said Leaf will dominate  . That is how close it was. I told him Peyton may not be great but we chose the right person, little did I know Peyton would be top 3 of all-time  

 

Leaf had a higher ceiling.......

[AwesomeAustin]

7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Regarding Herbert I didn't see it either but I was wrong. I have missed on some, I didn't think Joey Bosa would that good either. I never thought Leonard would be great after we drafted him! Some guys surprise. I am just glad we took Peyton over Leaf, I really thought Leaf would be good but I did want Peyton after seeing at how each talked to the media before the draft and Peyton being a son of a former QB helped. Archie was good but just played on bad teams. As far as physical tools and talent, Leaf and Peyton were 50/50. I remember when we drafted Peyton a friend of mine was so upset, he said same ol' Colts  . He said Leaf will dominate  . That is how close it was. I told him Peyton may not be great but we chose the right person, little did I know Peyton would be top 3 of all-time  

I thought all 4 QBs going in the first round had bust potential. I thought Burrow then Tua had the best chance to be franchise QBs. Wasnt sure about Herbert but more I watched film of him the more I was impressed.  He was making big time throws. Was never convinced he was “the guy” so wont pretend now. Im betting all three turn out to be good to great QBs. 

[AwesomeAustin]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I'm not the biggest Tua fan, but his stats have been sneaky good in a lot of areas.

 

I'd say playmakers weren't really the issue, at least last season. It was by far and away his OL. They were were the worst OL in the league last season. They added Armstead at LT, and if he stays healthy, Eichenberg moves to RT. They also upgraded at LG, which was probably the worst spot last season. 

 

In short, their OL should be at least middle of the road this season, up from being the worst in the NFL last season. And that should be huge for Tua. Aside from Waddle and Hill, their WRs are pretty meh, so if one goes down, they're in trouble. Gesicki is solid at TE. 

Did not know that about their OL.  Thanks for pointing it out.  Figured it wasnt good bc they addressed the left side in FA.  I will say that coach of theirs is extremely smart and has a ton of potential. I hope they do well and knock the Patriots down to 3rd in the East. 

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Did not know that about their OL.  Thanks for pointing it out.  Figured it wasnt good bc they addressed the left side in FA.  I will say that coach of theirs is extremely smart and has a ton of potential. I hope they do well and knock the Patriots down to 3rd in the East. 

Yup. The OL should be much improved. They had no business starting Eichenberg out at LT like they did. 

Even with having the worst OL in the league, Tua's advanced stats were sneaky good in some areas, especially accuracy wise. 

And he'll have two 1000+ yard WRs to go along with a very good TE. 

Even if the OL becomes just average, I think Tua will make a big jump. 

Not sure if Tua will ever play to his draft position, but I think he can be a top 16 QB. 

[DougDew]

12 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I thought it should be:

 

2017: Brissett

2018: Luck

2019: Brissett

2020: Rivers (Colts draft Herbert/Tua)

2021: Herbert/Tua

2022:  Herbert/Tua

 

I strongly feel we should have traded into the Top 5 and had our choice between those two. I believe the front office thought we were ready to contend with a veteran.  Hindsight says if we got Herbert we would be discussing SBs. If we chose Tua we could be discussing who the next GM and coach should be...or maybe Tua does well in this system. 
 

The wildcard is Matt Ryan.  If we are competitive and have a shot to win in the 2nd round of the playoffs plus draft a QB of the future, it is all a wash. 

You can't fault Ballard for not getting Herbert or Tua.  There is no way that those top 6 teams would have let Indy outbid them to get either of those QBs.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

You can't fault Ballard for not getting Herbert or Tua.  There is no way that those top 6 teams would have let Indy outbid them to get either of those QBs.

I think both NYG and Detroit were shopping their picks, which both were before Herbert was taken. I'm sure they were asking a lot. We were already giving up our 13th pick, but I'd assume that pick, and next year's 1R pick might have been enough to move up 9 or 10 spots. The draft capital equation would likely be close. 

[DougDew]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think both NYG and Detroit were shopping their picks, which both were before Herbert was taken. I'm sure they were asking a lot. We were already giving up our 13th pick, but I'd assume that pick, and next year's 1R pick might have been enough to move up 9 or 10 spots. The draft capital equation would likely be close. 

I would bet more than a dollar that once Ballard made any offer to either NYG or DET, that both teams would call LAC to counter offer.   They would have out bid us under about any circumstances.  That's why I don't think Ballard had any possibility to draft  Herbert.  

[AwesomeAustin]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

I would bet more than a dollar that once Ballard made any offer to either NYG or DET, that both teams would call LAC to counter offer.   They would have out bid us under about any circumstances.  That's why I don't think Ballard had any possibility to draft  Herbert.  

Extremely unlikely bc either of those teams would have called LAC and said there was an offer to get them to move up. Both teams desperately need talent and would seize any opportunity to gain valuable draft picks
 

So does that mean you owe me more than a dollar? 

[DougDew]

10 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Extremely unlikely bc either of those teams would have called LAC and said there was an offer to get them to move up. Both teams desperately need talent and would seize any opportunity to gain valuable draft picks
 

So does that mean you owe me more than a dollar? 

They both needed QBs.  MIA had a huge hole and LAC just lost Rivers.  Teams that need franchise QBs come draft day don't pass on them when they are in position to draft them.

 

By your measure, that LAC should/would not have traded up from the 6th pick in order to get more draft talent despite not having a franchise QB, that means when the Colts actually had a franchise QB in Luck and the 6th pick, they should have traded down to get more talent than to select just a G with 6. 

 

 I might say that, but I doubt anybody else would.

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

They both needed QBs.  MIA had a huge hole and LAC just lost Rivers.  Teams that need franchise QBs come draft day don't pass on them when they are in position to draft them.

 

By your measure, that LAC should/would not have traded up from the 6th pick in order to get more draft talent despite not having a franchise QB, that means when the Colts actually had a franchise QB in Luck and the 6th pick, they should have traded down to get more talent than to select just a G with 6. 

 

 I might say that, but I doubt anybody else would.

I dont know what any of that has to do with what we are discussing. 
 

You said they would beat our offer had we made one. Well, if that was true either the Giants or Lions would have bluffed and called either team and said we have this offer and Mia or LAC would have moved up.  We could have traded up into the top 5 but chose not to bc the price was too high and Ballard/Reich thought Rivers and Buckner could push us over the top. Not bc we were certainly getting outbid.  Otherwise those teams would have moved up regardless. They rolled the dice and it worked out for them to get QBs. 

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

I would bet more than a dollar that once Ballard made any offer to either NYG or DET, that both teams would call LAC to counter offer.   They would have out bid us under about any circumstances.  That's why I don't think Ballard had any possibility to draft  Herbert.  

sigh.... 

when presented with facts, you pivot to something that can be neither proven or disproven. 

fact is, both were shopping their picks, and therefore, moving up was not impossible like you implied.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 hours ago, DougDew said:

I would bet more than a dollar that once Ballard made any offer to either NYG or DET, that both teams would call LAC to counter offer.   They would have out bid us under about any circumstances.  That's why I don't think Ballard had any possibility to draft  Herbert.  

I will raise your dollar and make it a 1.25 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I dont know what any of that has to do with what we are discussing. 
 

You said they would beat our offer had we made one. Well, if that was true either the Giants or Lions would have bluffed and called either team and said we have this offer and Mia or LAC would have moved up.  We could have traded up into the top 5 but chose not to bc the price was too high and Ballard/Reich thought Rivers and Buckner could push us over the top. Not bc we were certainly getting outbid.  Otherwise those teams would have moved up regardless. They rolled the dice and it worked out for them to get QBs. 

Who knows what happened on draft day, but there is this idea floating around that getting Tua or Herbert was just a matter of Ballard offering up enough assets to move up.  And that he failed.  Like he's the only GM who values a franchise QB when the teams who need one sitting at pick 3 and 6 are just going to let it happen, and they should instead want to trade down with a desire to have more talent over having the QB.

 

My comment was that Ballard himself didn't do that when he had pick 6, and instead even valued a G more than the extra talent he could have gotten by trading down.  So why would you expect another team that needs a franchise QB to trade down to get more talent when either Tua or Herbert are sitting within easy reach, when Ballard himself didn't trade down for more talent to instead take a G, 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

sigh.... 

when presented with facts, you pivot to something that can be neither proven or disproven. 

fact is, both were shopping their picks, and therefore, moving up was not impossible like you implied.

You bring up facts that tend to be pointless.  The issue in this discussion is whether or not Herbert had a likely chance to be a Colt and that Ballard failed to get him, not whether or not two teams were shopping the picks.

[AwesomeAustin]

30 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Who knows what happened on draft day, but there is this idea floating around that getting Tua or Herbert was just a matter of Ballard offering up enough assets to move up.  And that he failed.  Like he's the only GM who values a franchise QB when the teams who need one sitting at pick 3 and 6 are just going to let it happen, and they should instead want to trade down with a desire to have more talent over having the QB.

 

My comment was that Ballard himself didn't do that when he had pick 6, and instead even valued a G more than the extra talent he could have gotten by trading down.  So why would you expect another team that needs a franchise QB to trade down to get more talent when either Tua or Herbert are sitting within easy reach, when Ballard himself didn't trade down for more talent to instead take a G, 

He did trade down from 3 to 6 and got Q, Braeden Smith and as an extension Yannick. 
 

Doesnt matter what happened on draft day.  The ability for us to trade up was gone bc we signed Rivers and traded for Buckner a month prior to the draft.  The notion Mia or LAC would outbid us didnt even factor in that early into the league year. Otherwise either the Giants or Lions would have worked the willingness and accrued assets to move down a couple spots and still get their guy. 

[Superman]

Getting Herbert would have required getting up to #3 (Lions) or #4 (Giants) in the 2020 draft, which was a weird year already with COVID. And there were no draft day trades in the top 12. So moving up from #13 is probably more difficult than in a typical year. 

 

That trade would also mean no Buckner, and probably no Paye (assuming it would require the 2021 1st rounder). 

 

If it was even possible, we should have done it. I liked Herbert at the time, he was probably my QB1 in that draft. (Not a Tua fan at all, wouldn't have drafted him, period. It was Herbert or Burrow for me.) I really like Buckner, loved the trade, but I assumed Rivers would stick around for more than one season, and I assumed at the time that we'd be drafting a young QB by 2021. But I'd rather have a guy with Herbert's profile on a rookie contract. And I think I've been on record on this since before the Buckner trade.

 

And since then, Herbert had a rookie year that made everyone say 'no way he can repeat that performance in Year 2.' And then he was even better in Year 2. I think he's the real deal. We paid Rivers $25m, Wentz $21m, and now Matt Ryan at $25m in 2022. The entire rookie deal for the #4 pick -- the latest we could have gotten Herbert -- is $32m, so we'd have saved more than $40m to spend at other positions. That's without getting rid of JB...

 

In hindsight, not immediately going after a rookie QB wound up costing this team. Along the way, the path they took made sense, and is understandable. (And not everyone was sold on Herbert, which I thought was silly at the time, but it's true, and it's why he fell to #6 and went after Tua.) I'm not banging on Ballard or even pointing the finger, but if we had made the move for Herbert in 2020, we'd be better off right now, IMO. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

Getting Herbert would have required getting up to #3 (Lions) or #4 (Giants) in the 2020 draft, which was a weird year already with COVID. And there were no draft day trades in the top 12. So moving up from #13 is probably more difficult than in a typical year. 

 

That trade would also mean no Buckner, and probably no Paye (assuming it would require the 2021 1st rounder). 

 

If it was even possible, we should have done it. I liked Herbert at the time, he was probably my QB1 in that draft. (Not a Tua fan at all, wouldn't have drafted him, period. It was Herbert or Burrow for me.) I really like Buckner, loved the trade, but I assumed Rivers would stick around for more than one season, and I assumed at the time that we'd be drafting a young QB by 2021. But I'd rather have a guy with Herbert's profile on a rookie contract. And I think I've been on record on this since before the Buckner trade.

 

And since then, Herbert had a rookie year that made everyone say 'no way he can repeat that performance in Year 2.' And then he was even better in Year 2. I think he's the real deal. We paid Rivers $25m, Wentz $21m, and now Matt Ryan at $25m in 2022. The entire rookie deal for the #4 pick -- the latest we could have gotten Herbert -- is $32m, so we'd have saved more than $40m to spend at other positions. That's without getting rid of JB...

 

In hindsight, not immediately going after a rookie QB wound up costing this team. Along the way, the path they took made sense, and is understandable. (And not everyone was sold on Herbert, which I thought was silly at the time, but it's true, and it's why he fell to #6 and went after Tua.) I'm not banging on Ballard or even pointing the finger, but if we had made the move for Herbert in 2020, we'd be better off right now, IMO. 

Hindsight is everything, for craps and giggles in 2018 we could've took Josh Allen who went 7th to the Bills. We didn't because we had Luck and took Q at #6. Had we known Luck was going to retire, Allen would've been a great pick. Taking Q in 2018 was the right pick though because we had Luck. Q is a 1st team All-Pro as well. I think Tua is a borderline top 20 QB in the league, he is average. I never thought he would be on the good level. Hill is about to find out how great Mahomes is. Herbert has shocked me a bit, I didn't think he would this good but he has proved me wrong.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hindsight is everything, for craps and giggles in 2018 we could've took Josh Allen who went 7th to the Bills. We didn't because we had Luck and took Q at #6. Had we known Luck was going to retire, Allen would've been a great pick. Taking Q in 2018 was the right pick though because we had Luck. Q is a 1st team All-Pro as well. I think Tua is a borderline top 20 QB in the league, he is average. I never thought he would be on the good level. Hill is about to find out how great Mahomes is. Herbert has shocked me a bit, I didn't think he would this good but he has proved me wrong.

 

We didn't need a QB in 2018. We did in 2020.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Superman said:

 

We didn't need a QB in 2018. We did in 2020.

I agree that is why I said for craps and giggles. 

[DougDew]

On 6/29/2022 at 2:56 AM, EastStreet said:

 

So Jax is "earth"..... 

Wow.

Before this coming season where you persistently tell us how much dumber of a Play Caller Frank Reich is than you, please let us in on your philosophy about what a HC/OC is responsible for during a game.

 

A). Do you view the game like chess, where each HC/OC has equally movable objects and the contest boils down to who places their pieces in the right spots during the game.  A constant chess match if you will.  Its Reich vs McVay, each trying to outsmart the other with how they place their pieces.  And of course, Frank is always the dumber one, and in this case, he was dumber than even the interim Jax caoch.

 

Its not wrong to look at it that way, but its not a given its the correct way.

 

B). When plays get stuffed, do you first blame the guy on the sidelines, or blame the guy who didn't make the block; or the Qb who did not see the field.  IOW, do you view each side as having highly mobile pieces of differing individual talents with individual brains that tell them what to do when, which results in unequal talent and results that vacillate between teams on virtually every play.   The pieces who do well win, the pieces who suck lose.

 

Not that its the correct way to look at it, but its not the wrong way either.

 

But the two views of HC responsibilities do create a sense of what we each see.

[DougDew]

46 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

He did trade down from 3 to 6 and got Q, Braeden Smith and as an extension Yannick. 
 

Doesnt matter what happened on draft day.  The ability for us to trade up was gone bc we signed Rivers and traded for Buckner a month prior to the draft.  The notion Mia or LAC would outbid us didnt even factor in that early into the league year. Otherwise either the Giants or Lions would have worked the willingness and accrued assets to move down a couple spots and still get their guy. 

That's fine.  I was just reading your comment that LAC wanting to vacate pick 6 to trade down for more talent instead of possibly trading up for a franchise QB was the normal thing to do, so I assumed that you would have thought that trading down for more talent instead of picking a G at 6 would have also been the normal thing to do.  Apologies if I misread it.

[AwesomeAustin]

12 hours ago, DougDew said:

That's fine.  I was just reading your comment that LAC wanting to vacate pick 6 to trade down for more talent instead of possibly trading up for a franchise QB was the normal thing to do, so I assumed that you would have thought that trading down for more talent instead of picking a G at 6 would have also been the normal thing to do.  Apologies if I misread it.

No worries.  I was speaking about the Giants and Lions.  Understand the confusion

[AwesomeAustin]

12 hours ago, Superman said:

Getting Herbert would have required getting up to #3 (Lions) or #4 (Giants) in the 2020 draft, which was a weird year already with COVID. And there were no draft day trades in the top 12. So moving up from #13 is probably more difficult than in a typical year. 

 

That trade would also mean no Buckner, and probably no Paye (assuming it would require the 2021 1st rounder). 

 

If it was even possible, we should have done it. I liked Herbert at the time, he was probably my QB1 in that draft. (Not a Tua fan at all, wouldn't have drafted him, period. It was Herbert or Burrow for me.) I really like Buckner, loved the trade, but I assumed Rivers would stick around for more than one season, and I assumed at the time that we'd be drafting a young QB by 2021. But I'd rather have a guy with Herbert's profile on a rookie contract. And I think I've been on record on this since before the Buckner trade.

 

And since then, Herbert had a rookie year that made everyone say 'no way he can repeat that performance in Year 2.' And then he was even better in Year 2. I think he's the real deal. We paid Rivers $25m, Wentz $21m, and now Matt Ryan at $25m in 2022. The entire rookie deal for the #4 pick -- the latest we could have gotten Herbert -- is $32m, so we'd have saved more than $40m to spend at other positions. That's without getting rid of JB...

 

In hindsight, not immediately going after a rookie QB wound up costing this team. Along the way, the path they took made sense, and is understandable. (And not everyone was sold on Herbert, which I thought was silly at the time, but it's true, and it's why he fell to #6 and went after Tua.) I'm not banging on Ballard or even pointing the finger, but if we had made the move for Herbert in 2020, we'd be better off right now, IMO. 

Well said. Trading for Buckner and signing Rivers was a good move. There is no arguing Buckner is well worth a 1st and his contract. I just think trading up and getting a franchise QB in the draft would have been a better move. Even if it would have cost the Buckner, Paye and MPJ picks. 
 

If Matt Ryan works out and we are competitive in the 2nd round of the playoffs the next couple years, none of it matters. This core really only has 2-3 years left before we start changing players out so this move makes sense. In 4 years I could see the majority of Leonard, Q, Buckner, Smith, Kelly, Kenny, JTT, Blackmon and Stewart no longer with the team.  
 

We have gone “all in” and Im good with this roster. If we can make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs and be competitive, we have just as good a chance as most teams to make the championship game and a shot at going to the SB. When its down to the final 8 it all about matchups, health and luck.  All the teams are good and capable of winning it all.