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2022 Minicamp Day 3 Summary


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1 hour ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

I recall JA'mar Chase having the dropsies last year in camp and the experts criticizing the Bengals saying they should have drafted oline. How'd that work out?

I will say that Ja'Marr Chase was the 5th overall pick in the draft last year, and Alec Pierce is a 2nd round pick. Big difference of talent between them in their 1st year just by where they went in the draft (even moreso now with a year of hindsight from Chase). So it's much more likely Pierce will struggle than Chase would of (and I like Pierce a lot).

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30 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I will say that Ja'Marr Chase was the 5th overall pick in the draft last year, and Alec Pierce is a 2nd round pick. Big difference of talent between them in their 1st year just by where they went in the draft (even moreso now with a year of hindsight from Chase). So it's much more likely Pierce will struggle than Chase would of (and I like Pierce a lot).

Everybody is entitled to have an opinion. Louis Riddick ( who makes his living studying football) predicts AP will win ORY. 

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7 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Everybody is entitled to have an opinion. Louis Riddick ( who makes his living studying football) predicts AP will win ORY. 

I would love Pierce to be ORY. He has the opportunity opposite Pittman if he plays all year. I think 700-800 yards and 5-6 TDs are well within his range honestly. 

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45 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Pierce hands have been great in camp. Everyone of the media guys says his hands are money.

Pierce is great at the things that you can't teach or are hard to teach like speed and athleticism, and hands and catching the ball. He needs to work on route running, but that's something that can be taught and I feel he'll be able to learn that within a year. He can be just as good as Pittman IMO.

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6 hours ago, CanuckColt said:

He was picked in the 4th round, so it's not like he was expected to be a super-star.

He probably won't make the 53.

 

i still expect us to get value out of a 4th round pick. 

 

We still have this season and the next to see... but so far Granson has contributed next to nothing. 

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3 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I will say that Ja'Marr Chase was the 5th overall pick in the draft last year, and Alec Pierce is a 2nd round pick. Big difference of talent between them in their 1st year just by where they went in the draft (even moreso now with a year of hindsight from Chase). So it's much more likely Pierce will struggle than Chase would of (and I like Pierce a lot).

Yes, huge difference. Chase played for a big time program, going against guys in the toughest conference in CFB, and had 1700+ yards IIRC his last season. He also was used in a more well rounded way (routes, scheme). 

 

I like Pierce a lot too. But IMO he'll need time. He's got a lot to learn. Learning routes, learning footwork, learning press release, learning blocking.... on top of a new scheme while stepping up big time in competition. 

 

He's a smart guy with great traits, but I think some have unrealistic expectations of him at this point. Hoping he gets more time with the 1s in training camp. That'll mean he worked hard this summer. 

 

2 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Everybody is entitled to have an opinion. Louis Riddick ( who makes his living studying football) predicts AP will win ORY. 

If you have Riddick and 5 bucks, you can get a gallon gas. (maybe). 

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5 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

I recall JA'mar Chase having the dropsies last year in camp and the experts criticizing the Bengals saying they should have drafted oline. How'd that work out?

Exactly, perhaps Pierce will work that stuff out on his own during their 50-days off.  I would think there isn't any rules against hiring a personal receiving trainer and working on routes and catches (unless it's ok for him to do work with some of his teammates like Matt Ryan, but I assume there is some clause somewhere that doesn't permit during certain cold-periods).

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50 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yes, huge difference. Chase played for a big time program, going against guys in the toughest conference in CFB, and had 1700+ yards IIRC his last season. He also was used in a more well rounded way (routes, scheme). 

 

I like Pierce a lot too. But IMO he'll need time. He's got a lot to learn. Learning routes, learning footwork, learning press release, learning blocking.... on top of a new scheme while stepping up big time in competition. 

 

He's a smart guy with great traits, but I think some have unrealistic expectations of him at this point. Hoping he gets more time with the 1s in training camp. That'll mean he worked hard this summer. 

 

If you have Riddick and 5 bucks, you can get a gallon gas. (maybe). 

If I had you and 5 bucks...I'd have 5 bucks

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10 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

If I had you and 5 bucks...I'd have 5 bucks

Exactly.

It's the same thing you have with Riddick. 

I've probably got a better hit rate on predictions though lol.. 

 

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4 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Yeah..sure you do.

I've only been adamant about a few things regarding draft picks the last 5 years. 

And I've typically been spot on. 

My post history is easily searchable lol. 

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12 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I will say that Ja'Marr Chase was the 5th overall pick in the draft last year, and Alec Pierce is a 2nd round pick. Big difference of talent between them in their 1st year just by where they went in the draft (even moreso now with a year of hindsight from Chase). So it's much more likely Pierce will struggle than Chase would of (and I like Pierce a lot).

Well this is a bunch of codswallup.

No one knows anything about how players are going to perform, especially rookies. Players are often drafted way too late compared to their production in hindsight and WAAAY more often drafted too high. It's a crapshoot with a bit of luck. Chase could easily have been a flop. Its also not like they were on opposite ends of the draft... we're talking round 1 and round 2. Saying Pierce is much more likely to struggle is just silly. Especially when he has an experienced QB like Ryan at the helm.

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4 hours ago, Chucklez said:

Well this is a bunch of codswallup.

No one knows anything about how players are going to perform, especially rookies. Players are often drafted way too late compared to their production in hindsight and WAAAY more often drafted too high. It's a crapshoot with a bit of luck. Chase could easily have been a flop. Its also not like they were on opposite ends of the draft... we're talking round 1 and round 2. Saying Pierce is much more likely to struggle is just silly. Especially when he has an experienced QB like Ryan at the helm.

A top 5 pick hitting and a mid-2nd round hitting aren't even close. Any GM in football, past or present would agree with me. Yes, sometimes the 2nd rounder hits just as well, but most of the time he doesn't because one is a top 5 pick and was drafted there for a reason and the other is a 2nd rounder and needs development at certain things.

 

Your opinion is more of a homerish opinion more than anything. Top 5 picks hit around 50% of the time or more. That's as much of a guarantee as you'll get in the draft. 2nd rounders are much lower, starting in the 33% range and decreasing as the round goes on. The difference between round 1 and 2 is bigger than any other single round difference in odds. 

 

I also find it funny you use Ryan as a reason that Pierce will do well, when we have no idea how Pierce will do with him yet. He's not even working with the 1's fully. Whereas Burrow and Chase teamed together in High School, College, and the Pros, and you said he could of been a flop in the NFL. 

 

Sorry, you're just plain wrong here and your bias is showing (although we are all Colts fans).

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13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I've only been adamant about a few things regarding draft picks the last 5 years. 

And I've typically been spot on. 

My post history is easily searchable lol. 

Funny GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon- here is what Homer thinks of my search history Homer Simpson Laughing GIF by FOX TV- hey at least we bring it though :thmup:

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1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

A top 5 pick hitting and a mid-2nd round hitting aren't even close. Any GM in football, past or present would agree with me. Yes, sometimes the 2nd rounder hits just as well, but most of the time he doesn't because one is a top 5 pick and was drafted there for a reason and the other is a 2nd rounder and needs development at certain things.

 

Your opinion is more of a homerish opinion more than anything. Top 5 picks hit around 50% of the time or more. That's as much of a guarantee as you'll get in the draft. 2nd rounders are much lower, starting in the 33% range and decreasing as the round goes on. The difference between round 1 and 2 is bigger than any other single round difference in odds. 

 

I also find it funny you use Ryan as a reason that Pierce will do well, when we have no idea how Pierce will do with him yet. He's not even working with the 1's fully. Whereas Burrow and Chase teamed together in High School, College, and the Pros, and you said he could of been a flop in the NFL. 

 

Sorry, you're just plain wrong here and your bias is showing (although we are all Colts fans).

My argument has nothing to do with being a Colts fan. Nor does it have anything to do with Chase or Pierce as players. 

It is purely down to the statistics and odds. Lets go draft by draft back to the 2018 (I would go farther but it was taking a while) NFL draft and compare 1st round WRs vs 2nd round WRs and compare the success / failure rate. To keep this relatively simple, ill make green as players drafted well, yellow as average and red as seemingly bad picks.


2021 - somewhat too early to really tell as it has only really been 1 year, Atwell and Eskridge did miss a lot of time due to injuries though. Certainly leans more towards the round 1 though.

image.png.24b7359872b4531daf55f3dbce4bdae5.png

 

Toney is a bad pick because his team already wants out after 1 year.
Terrace Marshall did nothing of significance in year 1.

2020 - Push a great WR draft with lots of hits.

image.png.ecc027311439e890d881700fe9dc864e.png

Jalen Reagor - what a whiff especially looking at all the WR drafted after him

Denzel Mims - so far a whiff but could turn it around.

You could argue that Hamler is better than his stats becuase of the WR depth around him and the Drew Lock / Teddy Bridgewater QB situation.

2019 - 2nd rounders were just better in this draft and it isnt even close.
image.png.c0c1b062481124023ee6405dce2779d4.png


I've even put Parris down as a red on here because of his injuries. But he could move up to a yellow depending how this year goes.
Deebo / AJ. and DK all in the 2nd round in this daft... lol please.

2018 - only two WRS taken in round 1, but both are great. Sutton, Washington and Chark are all big hits in round 2. Kirk could arguably be on the lower end of the green ranking. 4 out of 6 isnt exactly terrible.  

image.png



My point being here that going back 4 drafts, at the WR position, there is no massively clear "Round 1 WRs will be more likely to succeed than WRs in round 2.

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15 minutes ago, Chucklez said:

My argument has nothing to do with being a Colts fan. Nor does it have anything to do with Chase or Pierce as players. 

It is purely down to the statistics and odds. Lets go draft by draft back to the 2018 (I would go farther but it was taking a while) NFL draft and compare 1st round WRs vs 2nd round WRs and compare the success / failure rate. To keep this relatively simple, ill make green as players drafted well, yellow as average and red as seemingly bad picks.


2021 - somewhat too early to really tell as it has only really been 1 year, Atwell and Eskridge did miss a lot of time due to injuries though. Certainly leans more towards the round 1 though.

image.png.24b7359872b4531daf55f3dbce4bdae5.png

 

Toney is a bad pick because his team already wants out after 1 year.
Terrace Marshall did nothing of significance in year 1.

2020 - Push a great WR draft with lots of hits.

image.png.ecc027311439e890d881700fe9dc864e.png

Jalen Reagor - what a whiff especially looking at all the WR drafted after him

Denzel Mims - so far a whiff but could turn it around.

You could argue that Hamler is better than his stats becuase of the WR depth around him and the Drew Lock / Teddy Bridgewater QB situation.

2019 - 2nd rounders were just better in this draft and it isnt even close.
image.png.c0c1b062481124023ee6405dce2779d4.png


I've even put Parris down as a red on here because of his injuries. But he could move up to a yellow depending how this year goes.
Deebo / AJ. and DK all in the 2nd round in this daft... lol please.

2018 - only two WRS taken in round 1, but both are great. Sutton, Washington and Chark are all big hits in round 2. Kirk could arguably be on the lower end of the green ranking. 4 out of 6 isnt exactly terrible.  

image.png



My point being here that going back 4 drafts, at the WR position, there is no massively clear "Round 1 WRs will be more likely to succeed than WRs in round 2.

I completely disagree with James Washington being a really good pick, and 2019 and 2018 WRs were both outnumbered 3:1 in WRs drafted, so they are likely to be better based off pure numbers. Higgins and Pittman were fringe 2nd rounders, so their hit % was very close to that of a late 1st rounder. 

 

2019 had a lot of great receivers in the 2nd round, but that's the exception and not the rule. 2020 was a deep class, and 2021 was more the norm. The last few classes have been deep. So we'll see if it makes a difference. Generally though, if teams thought the 2nd round WRs were 1st round talents, they would of taken them there. So you're arguing that 32 GMs are being wrong year after year and the difference between a 1st and 2nd round WR is negligible.

 

You may be right if we keep getting deep WR classes every year. However, it's not the norm that 2nd round WRs in a class are better than 1st round WRs. When that happens (as shown), it's usually because there's more 2nd round WRs drafted in that class than 1st rounders. This class will be like 2021 IMO, where 3 or 4 WRs hit big in the 1st round, and probably 2 hit somewhat in the 2nd round.

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14 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I completely disagree with James Washington being a really good pick, and 2019 and 2018 WRs were both outnumbered 3:1 in WRs drafted, so they are likely to be better based off pure numbers. Higgins and Pittman were fringe 2nd rounders, so their hit % was very close to that of a late 1st rounder. 

 

2019 had a lot of great receivers in the 2nd round, but that's the exception and not the rule. 2020 was a deep class, and 2021 was more the norm. The last few classes have been deep. So we'll see if it makes a difference. Generally though, if teams thought the 2nd round WRs were 1st round talents, they would of taken them there. So you're arguing that 32 GMs are being wrong year after year and the difference between a 1st and 2nd round WR is negligible.

 

You may be right if we keep getting deep WR classes every year. However, it's not the norm that 2nd round WRs in a class are better than 1st round WRs. When that happens (as shown), it's usually because there's more 2nd round WRs drafted in that class than 1st rounders. This class will be like 2021 IMO, where 3 or 4 WRs hit big in the 1st round, and probably 2 hit somewhat in the 2nd round.

You are missing my point and the original point entirely. I'm not saying 2nd rounders have been better than 1st rounders. Im saying that the chance of them failing as a pick is not so much of a difference as you seem to think it is with a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick. Sure there will almost certainly be a statistical difference as you generally take the better bet on a WR in the first round vs the 2nd, but its all a crapshoot on a player by player basis. And it isnt like its a HUGE difference between 1st and 2nd round players on that player being a successful draft pick or not.

 

This isnt about how many 1st rounders are elite compared to 2nd.. This is about was it a wasted /bust pick or not...

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1 minute ago, Chucklez said:

You are missing my point and the original point entirely. I'm not saying 2nd rounders have been better than 1st rounders. Im saying that the chance of them failing as a pick is not so much of a difference as you seem to think it is with a 1st round pick vs a 2nd round pick. Sure there will almost certainly be a statistical difference as you generally take the better bet on a WR in the first round vs the 2nd, but its all a crapshoot on a player by player basis. And it isnt like its a HUGE difference between 1st and 2nd round players on that player being a successful draft pick or not.

 

This isnt about how many 1st rounders are elite compared to 2nd.. This is about was it a wasted /bust pick or not...

It's generally around a 20% difference between a 1st and 2nd rounder to hit. That's the point I'm making. Yes, the WR classes are deeper now and sometimes talent falls, but you are still trying to hit on a approximate 33%ish chance in the 2nd round on a player as opposed to a 50%+ chance on a 1st round player. Ballard is probably better than the average drafting GM, but he hasn't had a great track record on WRs either. So 33% (or 1 in 3) is pretty accurate that Pierce will hit, as opposed to the 1st round WRs this year that probably have a 50%ish chance of hitting (or 1 in 2).

 

That's why teams covet 1st round picks so much. You generally have a 50/50 chance at a long-term starter (and even better when drafting higher in the 1st). Obviously, the other strategy is to accumulate multiple 2nds and 3rds like Ballard has, but that's a bunch of 33% and 25% chances where you are hoping to beat the odds on each individual pick.

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1 hour ago, Chucklez said:

My argument has nothing to do with being a Colts fan. Nor does it have anything to do with Chase or Pierce as players. 

It is purely down to the statistics and odds. Lets go draft by draft back to the 2018 (I would go farther but it was taking a while) NFL draft and compare 1st round WRs vs 2nd round WRs and compare the success / failure rate. To keep this relatively simple, ill make green as players drafted well, yellow as average and red as seemingly bad picks.


2021 - somewhat too early to really tell as it has only really been 1 year, Atwell and Eskridge did miss a lot of time due to injuries though. Certainly leans more towards the round 1 though.

image.png.24b7359872b4531daf55f3dbce4bdae5.png

 

Toney is a bad pick because his team already wants out after 1 year.
Terrace Marshall did nothing of significance in year 1.

2020 - Push a great WR draft with lots of hits.

image.png.ecc027311439e890d881700fe9dc864e.png

Jalen Reagor - what a whiff especially looking at all the WR drafted after him

Denzel Mims - so far a whiff but could turn it around.

You could argue that Hamler is better than his stats becuase of the WR depth around him and the Drew Lock / Teddy Bridgewater QB situation.

2019 - 2nd rounders were just better in this draft and it isnt even close.
image.png.c0c1b062481124023ee6405dce2779d4.png


I've even put Parris down as a red on here because of his injuries. But he could move up to a yellow depending how this year goes.
Deebo / AJ. and DK all in the 2nd round in this daft... lol please.

2018 - only two WRS taken in round 1, but both are great. Sutton, Washington and Chark are all big hits in round 2. Kirk could arguably be on the lower end of the green ranking. 4 out of 6 isnt exactly terrible.  

image.png



My point being here that going back 4 drafts, at the WR position, there is no massively clear "Round 1 WRs will be more likely to succeed than WRs in round 2.

Just watching the back and forth between you and Jared, I believe you made your point. Well done. 

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1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

It's generally around a 20% difference between a 1st and 2nd rounder to hit. That's the point I'm making. Yes, the WR classes are deeper now and sometimes talent falls, but you are still trying to hit on a approximate 33%ish chance in the 2nd round on a player as opposed to a 50%+ chance on a 1st round player. Ballard is probably better than the average drafting GM, but he hasn't had a great track record on WRs either. So 33% (or 1 in 3) is pretty accurate that Pierce will hit, as opposed to the 1st round WRs this year that probably have a 50%ish chance of hitting (or 1 in 2).

 

That's why teams covet 1st round picks so much. You generally have a 50/50 chance at a long-term starter (and even better when drafting higher in the 1st). Obviously, the other strategy is to accumulate multiple 2nds and 3rds like Ballard has, but that's a bunch of 33% and 25% chances where you are hoping to beat the odds on each individual pick.

Overall stats of 1st rounders vs 2nd rounders etc doesnt really reflect the conversation all that well. Position by position im sure it varies A LOT on the percenages etc, simply by the deemed positional value of specific positions and how hard it is to find "starter" players at specific positions. I bet you the difference between guards drafted in the 1st - 3rd rounds and who has hit and missed isnt as big a gap (ive just pulled a random position). I bet it is even more of a gap with Quarterbacks though... and there are STILL a lot of whiffs at QB, even with the first rounders. 

 

Sure my examples only go back to 2018, but i bet if you kept going back you'd see the same trend of not THAT big a difference in terms of WRs drafted in the 1st vs players drafted in the 2nd being busts or wasted picks. 

and again, i am not arguing that WRS picked in rounds 2 or later are just as good or have just as good a chance at producing at the same level as a WR drafted in the first round.... I am saying that WR drafted in round 2 are not all that much more likely to be busts than those drafted in round 1 (expectations for their draft position taken into account).

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3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Funny GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon- here is what Homer thinks of my search history Homer Simpson Laughing GIF by FOX TV- hey at least we bring it though :thmup:

How obsessed would a person have to be to bother looking up someone's post history?

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On 6/9/2022 at 8:32 PM, EastStreet said:
  • MISC - IU FB HC (Allen) was there, along with Ball State coaches. 

Other than this thread diverging off-topic am curious about both IU and Ball State representing. 

 

Ball State does seems to have a couple of players am interested in the upcoming season on the defensive side (NT Justen Ramsey - smaller prospect, DT Jack Sape, CB Amechi Uzodinma II, and FS Malcolm Lee).

 

IU also has some DBs that might be worth a look in CB Jaylin Williams, CB Tiawan Mullen, SAF's Devon Matthews and Bryant Fitzgerald.

 

Honestly think the Big-10 has the best DBs in class.  Keep tabs on Illinois, IU, Michigan St, Purdue and Rutgers this year.

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On 6/14/2022 at 11:31 PM, OhioColt said:

Other than this thread diverging off-topic am curious about both IU and Ball State representing. 

 

Ball State does seems to have a couple of players am interested in the upcoming season on the defensive side (NT Justen Ramsey - smaller prospect, DT Jack Sape, CB Amechi Uzodinma II, and FS Malcolm Lee).

 

IU also has some DBs that might be worth a look in CB Jaylin Williams, CB Tiawan Mullen, SAF's Devon Matthews and Bryant Fitzgerald.

 

Honestly think the Big-10 has the best DBs in class.  Keep tabs on Illinois, IU, Michigan St, Purdue and Rutgers this year.

I think it's primarily an effort just to partner with in-state schools. It's good for the CFB coaches to "see" the next level stuff. It's also good for Indy to keep a nice pipeline open, especially when it comes to UDFAs and lesser known prospects. Much easier for our scouts to pop into a Saturday game for IU, PU, BSU, ND, etc. And it's also simply the right thing to do IMO. 

 

Haven't really looked at next season's big board stuff yet. I know ND's roster like the back of my hand, but still need to peak later at IU, PU, and BSUs closer to the season. 

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