Colts in a contract year (2023 FAs)

[EastStreet]

Had a chat today on contract year guys. 

• Some big $ potentially.. LEO, LT, LG, WR. And other key spots potentially requiring a decent amount (MIKE, SS, S)... And of course, early extensions for some.
• And of course the holdout by Kenny, and potential holdout by Khari, may speed things up

 

 

$$ are CAP hits, not cash paid to player

 

• Assumed starters that are in a contract year
  • LG Nelson
    • Making 13.8M this year, assumed to get 18-20 in new contract
  • DE Ngakoue - not at OTAs, but read he sought permission and will be there during mandatory days next week
    • Making 13.0M this year. Considered underpaid so assume he'll be looking for 17-20M/y and multiple years
  • LT Pryor
    • Making 5.5M this season. If he locks down LT, he'll be looking for 15M+ and long term
  • WR Campbell
    • Making 1.6M this year. Gotta stay healthy to even think about an extension or value
  • LB Okereke
    • Making 2.8M this season. Shouldn't be astronomical to resign. 
  • SS Willis - not a OTAs
    • Making 2.7M this season. Shouldn't be astronomical to resign
  • K Blankenship
    • Making 0.9M. Have no clue about value
  • S McLeod - reasonable chance he starts the season at FS
    • Making 1.8M this season. Older, so won't be expensive to resign if he does well. 
• Key depth players that are in a contract year
  • CB Facyson - depends on how his role pans out this season
  • DE/3T Lewis - guessing he'll be gone if Dayo emerges
  • ST/WR Dulin - won't break the bank, but won't be ultra cheap given his value at WR, gunner, and returner. 
• Other depth
  • DE Banogu - last chance
  • LB Speed - would love to see him take a step forward. 
  • RB Jackson - would be cheap
  • RB Lindsay - depends on his role this year

 

 

Bonus.... Notable Colts 2022 FAs still available

• CB Rhodes - might be worth a cheap contract if Kenny is gone
• WR Hilton - doubt we hear anything till after cut downs
• LT Fisher
• S Sendejo - played well and was flexible last season position wise. If Khari is holding out, I'd give him a ring. 

[DeepseaColt]

37 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Had a chat today on contract year guys. 

• Some big $ potentially.. LEO, LT, LG, WR. And other key spots potentially requiring a decent amount (MIKE, SS, S)... And of course, early extensions for some.
• And of course the holdout by Kenny, and potential holdout by Khari, may speed things up

 

 

$$ are CAP hits, not cash paid to player

 

• Assumed starters that are in a contract year
  • LG Nelson
    • Making 13.8M this year, assumed to get 18-20 in new contract
  • DE Ngakoue - not at OTAs, but read he sought permission and will be there during mandatory days next week
    • Making 13.0M this year. Considered underpaid so assume he'll be looking for 17-20M/y and multiple years
  • LT Pryor
    • Making 5.5M this season. If he locks down LT, he'll be looking for 15M+ and long term
  • WR Campbell
    • Making 1.6M this year. Gotta stay healthy to even think about an extension or value
  • LB Okereke
    • Making 2.8M this season. Shouldn't be astronomical to resign. 
  • SS Willis - not a OTAs
    • Making 2.7M this season. Shouldn't be astronomical to resign
  • K Blankenship
    • Making 0.9M. Have no clue about value
  • S McLeod - reasonable chance he starts the season at FS
    • Making 1.8M this season. Older, so won't be expensive to resign if he does well. 
• Key depth players that are in a contract year
  • CB Facyson - depends on how his role pans out this season
  • DE/3T Lewis - guessing he'll be gone if Dayo emerges
  • ST/WR Dulin - won't break the bank, but won't be ultra cheap given his value at WR, gunner, and returner. 
• Other depth
  • DE Banogu - last chance
  • LB Speed - would love to see him take a step forward. 
  • RB Jackson - would be cheap
  • RB Lindsay - depends on his role this year

 

 

Bonus.... Notable Colts 2022 FAs still available

• CB Rhodes - might be worth a cheap contract if Kenny is gone
• WR Hilton - doubt we hear anything till after cut downs
• LT Fisher
• S Sendejo - played well and was flexible last season position wise. If Khari is holding out, I'd give him a ring. 

Willis may be holding out? I haven't heard that yet but feel like that would be a huge mistake on his part. Nelson, Okereke, and Ngakoue I feel are must re-signs unless something unforseen happens. Campbell seems to be turning into a camp favorite for Ryan which hopefully transfers over to the season and he can stay healthy. If so, hopefully we can get him to return for a reasonable amount. I've always loved Tyquan and hate that injuries have mostly derailed his career but another 1 or 2 year deal would be reasonable. 

 

If Pryor shows out we'll likely have to let him walk and hope the rookie is ready. We simply can't pay everyone. Everyone else can be re-signed or replaced within reason.  

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, DeepseaColt said:

Willis may be holding out? I haven't heard that yet but feel like that would be a huge mistake on his part. Nelson, Okereke, and Ngakoue I feel are must re-signs unless something unforseen happens. Campbell seems to be turning into a camp favorite for Ryan which hopefully transfers over to the season and he can stay healthy. If so, hopefully we can get him to return for a reasonable amount. I've always loved Tyquan and hate that injuries have mostly derailed his career but another 1 or 2 year deal would be reasonable. 

 

If Pryor shows out we'll likely have to let him walk and hope the rookie is ready. We simply can't pay everyone. Everyone else can be re-signed or replaced within reason.  

 

Always a juggling act, and what we think now, will likely only be partially correct by the end of the season. 

 

I agree on Willis. I think both he, and KM are making bad decisions. Moore is great in the slot, but slot, and SS for that matters, are both devalued positions. And Chris has options. 

 

I'm hoping Pryor, Campbell, Lewis, Oke, and Ngakoue all ball out. Sure we'll have to make some tough decisions, but it also means we had a pretty good season. Good problems. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

   I was okay with Q being drafted, as there was a trade down, IF he would transistion to to LT....though that is not in the cards.  He will take a huge cap hit while playing an inferior position.  

 

  Willis is just a JAG.

 

  Pittman and Taylor are the only ones worthy of an extension, imvho.

 

  I will wait and see with Yannick....

 

[DougDew]

Nelson and Ngakoue are the only priorities on this list, IMO.  I don't think Pryor will still yet command $15M...sure, if he rates in the high 70s or low 80s, but my guess is he averages around the mid 60s and will have been just a one-year starter by that time.  I think Ngakoue's value is tied to Bradley, and he still may only be a "part time" player considering that Paye may get the nod during running situations.

 

The other guys either have their replacements already on the roster or play positions that should not be hard to find in any given offseason.

 

I don't see a lot of really big contracts here.

 

Nelson, Pittman, Taylor, are the next ones up for the big dollars, IMO.  Yannick might surprise considering how Ballard might want to secure a very good pass rusher after struggling for several seasons to find one.

[lollygagger8]

Nelson and Ngakoue are the only ones I see as imperative at the moment

[AwesomeAustin]

Great post. Add JT and MPJ will be wanting extensions as well.  Lots of money about to be spent. A lot will ride on the success of the team this year.  All the pieces are here to win the division and a playoff game or two.  It will honestly be a poor season if we don’t do one of them. If we have success money will get handed out all around...we come up short and I see some big changes coming to the roster and possibly elsewhere. 

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, DougDew said:

Nelson and Ngakoue are the only priorities on this list, IMO.  I don't think Pryor will still yet command $15M...sure, if he rates in the high 70s or low 80s, but my guess is he averages around the mid 60s and will have been just a one-year starter by that time.  I think Ngakoue's value is tied to Bradley, and he still may only be a "part time" player considering that Paye may get the nod during running situations.

 

The other guys either have their replacements already on the roster or play positions that should not be hard to find in any given offseason.

 

I don't see a lot of really big contracts here.

 

Nelson, Pittman, Taylor, are the next ones up for the big dollars, IMO.  Yannick might surprise considering how Ballard might want to secure a very good pass rusher after struggling for several seasons to find one.

Paye and Ngakoue will likely be opposite sides, so not really a situation where Paye would get a nod over Ngakoue. It's probably more likely that we'll see Dayo or Lewis (I'm going to say Dayo by at least mid season) on Ngakoue's side on running downs. Paye IMO is probably as close as we have to a 3 down DE. But even he might come out on passing downs or perhaps shift inside. That assumes though that we have another capable edge rusher, and right now, not sure we do.

 

Pryor is a wildcard. Keep in mind he graded well at RT, G, and LT the last two games of the year. Averaged 76.5, but his two highest grading weeks were at LT. His lowest grading IIRC all year was at G the week our entire interior (Q, Kelly, Glow) was out injured and we started Reed/Pinter/Pryor inside. And his lowest grade wasn't bad either. Like I said in another post, not saying he'll be pro-bowl or anything, but expecting him to be mediocre or bad really defies everything we saw in 2021. He was more than solid. Now that he's had time in our scheme, and able to build some chemistry with the other big uglies, I expect high 60s or low 70s at minimum. 

[EastStreet]

 

[jonjon]

13 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

Nelson and Ngakoue are the only ones I see as imperative at the moment

Let's see what Ngakoue does before I agree with that. Right now Nelson is the only "sign this guy no matter what" player I see. 

[jonjon]

27 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Those first three would kill me if I was a fan of those teams. The Falcs and Bears especially have dim-looking prospects for this year and in cap hell too, wow. 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Those first three would kill me if I was a fan of those teams. The Falcs and Bears especially have dim-looking prospects for this year and in cap hell too, wow. 

It's mostly Ryan and Julio. 

Ryan's dead cap hit this year is almost 41M.

Julio's is almost 16M...

 

That's near 56M spent on guys no longer there lol... 

 

We made out on the Ryan acquisition in more ways than one. And this is a perfect example of why you don't push money lol. 

[sb41champs]

I predict that Chris Ballard gets Quenton Nelson locked up prior to training camp.

 

Hoping he gets Yannick Ngakoue locked up long term as well.

 

NO CLUE how Ballard handles Kenny Moore's contract situation as it is uncharted territory for our GM.  Hope they are able to "rework" the contract adding additional funds as a "signing bonus".

 

As for the rest - I want to see their contributions in 2022 before handing out extensions.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 6/3/2022 at 7:40 AM, lollygagger8 said:

Nelson and Ngakoue are the only ones I see as imperative at the moment

If Pay emerges, I think Yannick would be gone even if he had a great year.  They would slide Paye over to LEO.

[NewColtsFan]

They’re not in contract years, but plenty of decisions about what we will do and won’t do will get impacted by the contracts we give to Pittman and Taylor.   
 

I think MP is looking at 4/72 and JT is likely looking at 4/60.   That’s a lot of money to be spent on those two.   Both will get a decent signing bonus as well. 

[Moosejawcolt]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

They’re not in contract years, but plenty of decisions about what we will do and won’t do will get impacted by the contracts we give to Pittman and Taylor.   
 

I think MP is looking at 4/72 and JT is likely looking at 4/60.   That’s a lot of money to be spent on those two.   Both will get a decent signing bonus as well. 

Pittman will be interesting. Due to the current wr market, his value will be way over rated. If say Dulin and Campbell emerge,  it could be interesting. I like Pittman, but I think his skill set is replaceable if one of the young guys just gives us something. 

[NewColtsFan]

27 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Pittman will be interesting. Due to the current wr market, his value will be way over rated. If say Dulin and Campbell emerge,  it could be interesting. I like Pittman, but I think his skill set is replaceable if one of the young guys just gives us something. 

I think there is some truth to what you say.   The pay scale for WRs has gone crazy.   So what MP asks for will be interesting.   I personally think his ceiling is $20m and that’s if he has another very good year this year.  He may not agree.   I think Ballard would like something slightly below that.   I’m ballparking at $18.   I suspect the keys will be how much is guaranteed?   Same with JT. 

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

They’re not in contract years, but plenty of decisions about what we will do and won’t do will get impacted by the contracts we give to Pittman and Taylor.   
 

I think MP is looking at 4/72 and JT is likely looking at 4/60.   That’s a lot of money to be spent on those two.   Both will get a decent signing bonus as well. 

I actually have JT at 4/72. IMO, if he stays healthy and productive, he'll get 18M a year by the time the extension happens. 

And agree on you MPJ eval assuming he stays at current level of production.

 

What I can see happening, or at least I hope happens, is that we become a lot more balanced. Both balance in simple run/pass, but also within the passing game. If that happens, it'll be good for the team obviously, but might drop both JT's and MPJ's production. 

 

But overall, I doubt MPJ will be too much of a pain with the new contract. My gut says he'll be more about term and guarantees, than total. At least I hope. We haven't had a true X like him in forever. We just need to pair him with another legit slot or Z. 

[NewColtsFan]

45 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I actually have JT at 4/72. IMO, if he stays healthy and productive, he'll get 18M a year by the time the extension happens. 

And agree on you MPJ eval assuming he stays at current level of production.

 

What I can see happening, or at least I hope happens, is that we become a lot more balanced. Both balance in simple run/pass, but also within the passing game. If that happens, it'll be good for the team obviously, but might drop both JT's and MPJ's production. 

 

But overall, I doubt MPJ will be too much of a pain with the new contract. My gut says he'll be more about term and guarantees, than total. At least I hope. We haven't had a true X like him in forever. We just need to pair him with another legit slot or Z. 

Not that it really makes a difference, but back at his year end presser, Ballard said he thought both were capable of being even better this year.   He’s going to pay a pretty penny for being right.   

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not that it really makes a difference, but back at his year end presser, Ballard said he thought both were capable of being even better this year.   He’s going to pay a pretty penny for being right.   

 

Oh I think both will be better / improved performance wise. It perhaps may not translate to increased total yardage though. 

[NewColtsFan]

19 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Oh I think both will be better / improved performance wise. It perhaps may not translate to increased total yardage though. 

Good point.   I’m not sure we want more out of either player.   We don’t want to force things.   Frank likes to spread things around and I expect that we will.   
 

So I see MP as a guy who gets roughly 85/1100 most years and I think Taylor will hopefully rushing for 1600 most years.  Don’t want to get too over-dependent on either. 
 

I’ve read that Ryan loves throwing not just to backs, but to TEs as well.   Will be interesting to see how that plays out. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Good point.   I’m not sure we want more out of either player.   We don’t want to force things.   Frank likes to spread things around and I expect that we will.   
 

So I see MP as a guy who gets roughly 85/1100 most years and I think Taylor will hopefully rushing for 1600 most years.  Don’t want to get too over-dependent on either. 
 

I’ve read that Ryan loves throwing not just to backs, but to TEs as well.   Will be interesting to see how that plays out. 

 

Ryan, IMO, will throw it to whomever he needs too. Whoever is the most open, or the biggest mismatch. I disagree on your comments about Frank, because we did plenty of forcing the last couple years in terms of the read progressions, runs, and just play calls in general. But not going to make this about Frank. I think we've already seen it reported that Ryan's been able to change the playbook (report said 20%), and has been very active since OTA week1 changing plays at the LOS. 

 

In short, suggests to me we'll adopt some Shanahan-ish type strategies. I'm sure Ryan will have his favorites, but I also think/hope we'll do more in the seam and long too, like Ryan did when he was uber productive with Shanahan. Hoping also that the weekly installs are more diverse. 

 

In terms of MPJ, anything in the 1000 range will make me happy if we have another WR that's a legit threat offensively. We haven't had that. Anything 1400ish from JT will make me happy. I just don't want to run the wheels off him like we did last season. 

[Moosejawcolt]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think there is some truth to what you say.   The pay scale for WRs has gone crazy.   So what MP asks for will be interesting.   I personally think his ceiling is $20m and that’s if he has another very good year this year.  He may not agree.   I think Ballard would like something slightly below that.   I’m ballparking at $18.   I suspect the keys will be how much is guaranteed?   Same with JT. 

I know he is aback but ai sign JT way before I sign Pittman.  Let us say Dulin and Pierce develop. I think that would make Pittman expendable. I am hoping Paton or Stachan can take that next step and be that big bodied receiver.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I know he is aback but ai sign JT way before I sign Pittman.  Let us say Dulin and Pierce develop. I think that would make Pittman expendable. I am hoping Paton or Stachan can take that next step and be that big bodied receiver.

 

LOL. You're already talking about giving the boot to the only reliable and proven WR we've had in the last several years. One that has obvious positional value at both X and slot. And at a time when our WR unit has been seen as a team weakness for a while. 

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I know he is aback but ai sign JT way before I sign Pittman.  Let us say Dulin and Pierce develop. I think that would make Pittman expendable. I am hoping Paton or Stachan can take that next step and be that big bodied receiver.

I think the only way we don’t sign Pittman is if he asks for crazy WR money.   And I don’t think he will.   The Colts didn’t use the 34th pick on him to let him walk after 4 years.   But if he asks for crazy money, then we might trade him next spring with a year left to a team that is willing to pay the asking.   At least that way, we’d get something back for him.