OTA Media Day 2

[TaylorTheStudMuffin]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

All of mini camp is no contact. 

 

Love Rodgers. Great value in so many ways.

 

Ryan is pretty much a statue too. So is Foles.

Ryan looks like Lamar compared to rivers. No he is nor a statue like rivers. We will be able to run bootlegs with Ryan. Rivers feet were in cement. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

I was a little concerned about his absence too, but read that he sought permission from the staff, and will be here next week. 

Most of the stuff going on now is "installation" stuff for the new D scheme, and basic stuff for the new guys on both sides. At least Ngakoue already knows Gus's system. Hate that he's missing out on bonding time though. 

No excuses ....get rid of them all! 

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Ryan looks like Lamar compared to rivers. No he is nor a statue like rivers. We will be able to run bootlegs with Ryan. Rivers feet were in cement. 

Ryan has great pocket awareness, but he is a statue. He's not as bad as Rivers though. But that isn't saying much. 

 

 

[cdgacoltsfan]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

All of mini camp is no contact. 

 

Love Rodgers. Great value in so many ways.

 

Ryan is pretty much a statue too. So is Foles.

So what...the last two Superbowls  were won by.....statues.

[PRnum1]

I have watched every Falcons game for the last 5 years living in the Atlanta metro area.

 

Ryan is a pure pocket passer like Rivers.

 

There will be no bootlegs. Trust me.

 

I'm sure @EastStreet can confirm

[TaylorTheStudMuffin]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Ryan has great pocket awareness, but he is a statue. He's not as bad as Rivers though. But that isn't saying much. 

 

 

My point was Ryan’s feet are not in cement  like rivers. If he does need to get out of the pocket he can do that which Rivers couldn’t. I was actually shocked when I watched some plays from his last year at how quick his feet still are. I was not expecting that. I think a lot of fans are unaware of that. Not saying you are but a lot of fans clearly didn’t see him play last year.

[TaylorTheStudMuffin]

3 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

I have watched every Falcons game for the last 5 years living in the Atlanta metro area.

 

Ryan is a pure pocket passer like Rivers.

 

There will be no bootlegs. Trust me.

 

I'm sure @EastStreet can confirm

I wasn’t saying he isn’t a pocket passer. When people saying a guy is mobile they seem to think your talking like they are Lamar. There is a such thing as not being Lamar and not being rivers. Being in between.  Ryan Tannehill is a good example of that. 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

So what...the last two Superbowls  were won by.....statues.

Not saying it's a horrible thing. I prefer good pocket passers. I was just replying to posts that suggested he wasn't a statue, and would be running bootlegs. 

 

3 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

I have watched every Falcons game for the last 5 years living in the Atlanta metro area.

 

Ryan is a pure pocket passer like Rivers.

 

There will be no bootlegs. Trust me.

 

I'm sure @EastStreet can confirm

Yup. I've watched a ton of Falcons games the last 20 years lol..

I don't see a lot of bootlegs in our future lol... 

But he simply doesn't need to. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

I wasn’t saying he isn’t a pocket passer. When people saying a guy is mobile they seem to think your talking like they are Lamar. There is a such thing as not being Lamar and not being rivers. Being in between.  Ryan Tannehill is a good example of that. 

Tannehill is a ton more mobile than Ryan has ever been. A matter of fact, Tannehill is known for his rushing ability.

Ryan has never ever been considered mobile, at all lol... He ran like a 4.95 40 and had bad agility scores. OLs and DL run better lol.

Like I said, he's got good pocket presence. That means he has great awareness and can step up, step out, etc. at the right time. It does not mean scramble or anything like that. Is he faster than Rivers. Sure. But that's like saying a turtle is faster than a snail. 

 

[TaylorTheStudMuffin]

Ryan’s deep ball accuracy is insanely good too I noticed while watching videos. It’s going to be fun.

[John Waylon]

Say what you want about Wentz and the decision, but this already feels like an entirely different team in a good way because of Ryan and it’s only June. 

[EastStreet]

50 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

Say what you want about Wentz and the decision, but this already feels like an entirely different team in a good way because of Ryan and it’s only June. 

 

Just a very very different situation. Ryan coming in is a lot like Rivers. Just slightly younger, and perhaps more arm left. Both great pocket passers. Ryan is probably a little less effective in the quick short stuff, but better long. Rivers was simply elite at reading Ds and throwing quick hits with leading passes. Ryan is very good too, but I don't think he's ever been on the level of Rivers in that area. Ryan is better though in other areas. 

 

Clouds surrounded Wentz from the time he was announced. And we had an owner that started publicly voicing displeasure in week three lol... 

 

We really lucked out that ATL treated Ryan bad lol. 

 

[Old Colt]

20 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am so glad some of you aren’t the GM.  Do I agree with Kenny’s hold out?  No.  However, he’s still a very important part to the Colts defense and you don’t just get ride of a guy like that because he wants a new contract.  At some point Kenny is going to realize he has very little leverage here because it’s one thing to hold out when the team can’t fine you it’s another to do it when they can.  When that happens it will be a matter of time until Kenny returns as his only other options at that point is to retire or just hold out for two years.  I don’t see him doing that.  

Re-watch the last 2 games, win 1 and Colts go to playoffs.  Those games show Kenny Moore and his overall value.  He is getting paid right where he should be until he can string 2 good seasons in a row.  He has 2 years left and if he plays like he did at the end of the season, he won't get a 3rd.

[TaylorTheStudMuffin]

10 hours ago, John Waylon said:

Say what you want about Wentz and the decision, but this already feels like an entirely different team in a good way because of Ryan and it’s only June. 

Well we made a lot of changes even outside the QB. 

[shasta519]

10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Just a very very different situation. Ryan coming in is a lot like Rivers. Just slightly younger, and perhaps more arm left. Both great pocket passers. Ryan is probably a little less effective in the quick short stuff, but better long. Rivers was simply elite at reading Ds and throwing quick hits with leading passes. Ryan is very good too, but I don't think he's ever been on the level of Rivers in that area. Ryan is better though in other areas. 

 

Clouds surrounded Wentz from the time he was announced. And we had an owner that started publicly voicing displeasure in week three lol... 

 

We really lucked out that ATL treated Ryan bad lol. 

 

 

I am sure Ryan has a better arm than Rivers did. But from a deep passing perspective, I think Ryan being some big improvement over Rivers might be overstated (not by you, but I have seen others mention it).

 

Here is the 2021 Deep Ball Project:

 

 

Here is Rivers in the 2019 Deep Ball Project (before he got to Indy):

 

 

As you can, both Ryan (in 2021) and Rivers (in 2019) were ranked in a similar range (18-22) with very similar deep ball accuracy. Also, almost no deep passes outside the pocket (so take that element out of the offense).

 

In Indy in 2020, Rivers' accuracy actually went up a bit, but he still only ranked #22 that year (that was the COVID year).

 

For reference, Ryan was #19 in 2020, so it wasn't just last season where his deep ball accuracy was down.

 

Also, Rivers' attempts went from 62 to 44 in Indy. And despite being top 10 in deep ball accuracy last season, Wentz only had 50 deep pass attempts.

 

So you have an older QB, whose deep ball accuracy has been declining the past two years, with a HC who doesn't really call deep passes. I don't really see it, but maybe Reich adjusts his play calling a bit this year...we will see. 

 

As you can see, Wentz was actually good at deep passing (even with the underthrown balls). So Ryan will very likely be a downgrade from Wentz in the deep passing game. Not to mention that Wentz was a semi-threat to run the ball at times or throw deep passes outside the pocket (10 attempts). 

 

So with that in mind, I think the passing offense will live and die with short-intermediate passing. If Ryan can execute it like or close to what Rivers did (and he has in the past), the passing offense should be really good. But if he's somewhere between what Rivers was and what Wentz was, I don't see a dramatically better passing offense. At least the numbers don't point in that direction. 

[GoColts8818]

2 hours ago, Old Colt said:

Re-watch the last 2 games, win 1 and Colts go to playoffs.  Those games show Kenny Moore and his overall value.  He is getting paid right where he should be until he can string 2 good seasons in a row.  He has 2 years left and if he plays like he did at the end of the season, he won't get a 3rd.

You don’t judge a players value over a contract based off two games.  Like I said I don’t agree with his hold out.  I am not agreeing with him saying he should get more money right now.

[TheShadow]

22 hours ago, gspdx said:

 

But how will he return?  Mad at the team, mgmt, etc. because he is under-valued (in his mind)?  Will he put the business issues behind him and play football?  Not knowing his state of mind means having him on the team would detract from the "all in" mantra.

 

I don't know.  I just wouldn't want a guy around who isn't committed to the success of the team.

Being from Atlanta, I watch the whole J. Jones sitout. He wanted to be the highest paid WR, two years before his contract was up. It became quite contentious, feelings hurt, fan base * off, until the owner gave in for additional compensation. He was never really playing hard after that. He then asked for a trade and got it. Falcons ate the CAP. These type of actions rarely turn out well.

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Here is the 2021 Deep Ball Project:

 

What is really strange in that grid is that only Ryan and Tua have worse Accurate passes/attempts than they do completions/attempt.  Does that mean that one of their passes was uncatchable but was still caught?  Weird.

[shasta519]

25 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

What is really strange in that grid is that only Ryan and Tua have worse Accurate passes/attempts than they do completions/attempt.  Does that mean that one of their passes was uncatchable but was still caught?  Weird.

 

Yes. Not necessarily uncatchable, but inaccurate and still caught. On the right side, there is a column for "ACC INC" (accurate incompletions and "INACC" (inaccurate completions).

 

Ryan actually had two inaccurate completions, but only one accurate incompletion. It would seem that his pass catchers did a great job at catching the ball when it was accurate. But this contradicts the idea that Ryan had nobody to throw to. 

[Fluke_33]

1 minute ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yes. Not necessarily uncatchable, but inaccurate and still caught. On the right side, there is a column for "ACC INC" (accurate incompletions and "INACC" (inaccurate completions).

 

Ryan actually had two inaccurate completions, but only one accurate incompletion. It would seem that his pass catchers did a great job at catching the ball when it was accurate. But this contradicts the idea that Ryan had nobody to throw to. 

That makes more sense than uncatchable.  I wonder how they are defining accurate.  near enough to be caught would be my definition of accurate.  I understand these are subjective to whoever reviewed every pass.

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

I am sure Ryan has a better arm than Rivers did. But from a deep passing perspective, I think Ryan being some big improvement over Rivers might be overstated (not by you, but I have seen others mention it).

 

Here is the 2021 Deep Ball Project:

 

 

Here is Rivers in the 2019 Deep Ball Project (before he got to Indy):

 

 

As you can, both Ryan (in 2021) and Rivers (in 2019) were ranked in a similar range (18-22) with very similar deep ball accuracy. Also, almost no deep passes outside the pocket (so take that element out of the offense).

 

In Indy in 2020, Rivers' accuracy actually went up a bit, but he still only ranked #22 that year (that was the COVID year).

 

For reference, Ryan was #19 in 2020, so it wasn't just last season where his deep ball accuracy was down.

 

Also, Rivers' attempts went from 62 to 44 in Indy. And despite being top 10 in deep ball accuracy last season, Wentz only had 50 deep pass attempts.

 

So you have an older QB, whose deep ball accuracy has been declining the past two years, with a HC who doesn't really call deep passes. I don't really see it, but maybe Reich adjusts his play calling a bit this year...we will see. 

 

As you can see, Wentz was actually good at deep passing (even with the underthrown balls). So Ryan will very likely be a downgrade from Wentz in the deep passing game. Not to mention that Wentz was a semi-threat to run the ball at times or throw deep passes outside the pocket (10 attempts). 

 

So with that in mind, I think the passing offense will live and die with short-intermediate passing. If Ryan can execute it like or close to what Rivers did (and he has in the past), the passing offense should be really good. But if he's somewhere between what Rivers was and what Wentz was, I don't see a dramatically better passing offense. At least the numbers don't point in that direction. 

 

I don't disagree with any of your points or logic. I've almost all of them, if not all of them, at one point or another myself. 

 

I do believe though that Ryan is pretty good deep, still. He's had speed threats, he's had big-climb-the-ladder threats. So he's got the experience.

 

His deep ball attempts were really dialed back last season, but that was likely a product of his bad pass pro OL combined with injury and aging of his key WRs. Also, take a look at their OCs the last 5 years (Sarkisian, Koetter, then Ragone last season lol). They went from wide open (Sark) to wide open (Koetter who is Air Coryell), to Ragone who is neither. If you've followed ATL, you kind of understand or get a sense of why his stats and production has changed the last 5 years. 

 

But overall, I don't believe Ryan's arm is like it was 10 years ago, but he's not near a noodle arm either. He still can make all the throws to all the levels. And I think he's strong willed, has a good track record of experience and production, and will have more voice/juice in how the offense is run (than Rivers or Wentz). So simply going to hope he drives the bus leading to a more well rounded passing attack. If we again overly rely on running and short passing, I'll be very disappointed lol... 

[shasta519]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

If you've followed ATL, you kind of understand or get a sense of why his stats and production has changed the last 5 years. 

 

His deep pass attempts being dialed back by the coaching staff doesn't really have anything to do with his accuracy on those attempts though.

 

  

 

 

[EastStreet]

2 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

His deep pass attempts being dialed back by the coaching staff doesn't really have anything to do with his accuracy on those attempts though.

 

 

No, like I said, new OC that is not wide open or AC, bad OL, and last year, injured or missing pass catchers.