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Matt Ryan's Arm


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11 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Carson's a good guy. Too bad it didn't go like most wanted. I hope he does well in Wash ...I have a feeling it will. The trade was obvious all Irsay..Frank and Chris had to eat crow to save their skins.

 

Agreed. 

 

Hope he does well too. Never thought he was elite, but not near as bad as some like to think. Totally scapegoated lol. 

 

Lost a little respect for Irsay given his week 3 antics. Why he singled out CW while he was hurt, while not saying the same about other core players in the same situation, tells me this was very personal. Set a really bad tone early.... 

 

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26 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

IIRC, he bought a bunch of land for development and hunting. He was pumped about building a house and putting down roots here, and sold his NJ house and hunting land. He's probably hating that he sold it lol. 

 

Doubt he keeps the property in Indy. It's not been a year yet so assume he doesn't want to lose money on anything not fully developed. 

 

I'm sure it was pretty much a directive by Irsay. Reich likely wanted another year, and Ballard was either Switzerland, or did the smart career thing, and back the boss lol. 

Maybe she is staying in Indy until TC. Maybe planning on moving everything during June and July when there is the dead period in the league. Then put it up for sale when it’s empty. Someone on Twitter had a picture of Wentz and his wife eating dinner with Kelly and his wife not too long ago.

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Honestly don't care about a QB with a big arm. If his arm is even a little stronger than Rivers, we should be fine. We are a run first team that just needs a QB to complete layups to convert first downs. Carson could hit a few big plays here and there but was atrocious in those layup moments unlike Phil Riv and hopefully Mr. Ryan

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25 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Maybe she is staying in Indy until TC. Maybe planning on moving everything during June and July when there is the dead period in the league. Then put it up for sale when it’s empty. Someone on Twitter had a picture of Wentz and his wife eating dinner with Kelly and his wife not too long ago.

 

I'm just spit balling, but if I'm them....

  • I'm going to finish whatever development I've started on the property in Indy, and then maximize the property.
  • No way I'd want to put down roots near DC... NO WAY, ever.... lol. 
  • He's only got two years on his WA contract, so another reason not to relocate quickly. They're likely kicking themselves for selling the NJ property (would have been much closer commute for her, and had hunting land for him).
  • If I'm his wife, I'll fly in for games... Not living in DC with small kids.
  • If after this year, they feel secure, perhaps a move closer where he can find a similar property to what he had in NJ or IN.
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1 hour ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Carson's a good guy. Too bad it didn't go like most wanted. I hope he does well in Wash ...I have a feeling it will. The trade was obvious all Irsay..Frank and Chris had to eat crow to save their skins.

I like Carson, hope he does well. The bolded is pure conjecture, and imo, highly inaccurate. 

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2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I like Carson, hope he does well. The bolded is pure conjecture, and imo, highly inaccurate. 

 

From what we know publicly...

  • Irsay was ranting about Wentz very early in week 3, over something that other high profile leaders on the team were doing too.
  • Irsay, after the season said trading for Wentz was a "mistake" in the first place, and it was "obvious" they needed to part ways... 
  • Reich was complimentary bout Wentz late season and immediately after. Also safe to say Reich pushed for signing Carson in the first place. 
  • Ballard only said "needs to make the layups"

So given actually what we know, thinking Irsay was pushing this, is simply not a huge jump. It would actually be the most logical assumption based on what is publicly know to be true. We can certainly debate where Frank and Chris landed on the topic, but was pretty clear early that Irsay was not a fan, and even more crystal clear after. And if you're Frank or Chris, and know your owner is that adamant... well... 

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18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Simple/typical strategy (not just football) would be to push frequency when efficiency is high (until you started to see a drop in efficiency).

Okay, you repeat this and there are a lot of people who don't agree with that take.

 

Yes...that is the simple way...often used when the underlying conditions are simple and homogenous.  That approach usually involves somebody in a corporate office 1,000 miles away from the actual transaction making a decision and doesn't know all of the conditions at the time (or a fan looking backwards at stats)...... or...... when some type of automated decisioning is involved.  Credit card lenders use this method... sending out applications, monitor the success, then accept even more applications (by liberalizing maybe only one condition) until the default rate climbs past a desired point. 

 

The coaching strategy of simply throwing long until it stops working well is too simple.  Every single pass attempt or play in an NFL game has a completely idiosyncratic set of conditions compared to previous plays...nonhomogeneous....that must be analyzed on site at the time its happening.  A high percentage of completed long passes simply means that the braintrust (playcaller and QB) got it right at a higher rate than other teams did.  The low frequency of deep play calls means they saw the idiosyncratic set of conditions not favorable for the long passes (which would include O line competence....specific injuries at a specific time/game...and WR talent...etc) than other teams did in their games. 

 

Yes, the braintrust could have passed up or not seen favorable conditions...because of conservativeness....but jumping to that conclusion has a lot of bias in it because nothing in the two sets of data speaks to them failing to analyze favorable situations wrongly.   We don't know how many times they should have thrown it deeper but didn't.

 

You can't simply use a high success rate coupled with a low attempt total to claim that the frequency should have been higher.   JMO.

 

I think most folks expect that there will be more deep passes this year than last....because the underlying conditions have changed from last year.  Expectations that the oline to be healthy/competent, and more deep speed on the field with Campbell, Pierce, and even Woods at times, and a QB who may see the field better.

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3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Okay, you repeat this and there are a lot of people who don't agree with that take.

 

Yes...that is the simple way...often used when the underlying conditions are simple and homogenous.  That approach usually involves somebody in a corporate office 1,000 miles away from the actual transaction making a decision and doesn't know all of the conditions at the time (or a fan looking backwards at stats)...... or...... when some type of automated decisioning is involved.  Credit card lenders use this method... sending out applications, monitor the success, then accept even more applications (by liberalizing maybe only one condition) until the default rate climbs past a desired point. 

 

The coaching strategy of simply throwing long until it stops working well is too simple.  Every single pass attempt or play in an NFL game has a completely idiosyncratic set of conditions compared to previous plays...nonhomogeneous....that must be analyzed on site at the time its happening.  A high percentage of completed long passes simply means that the braintrust (playcaller and QB) got it right at a higher rate than other teams did.  The low frequency of deep play calls means they saw the idiosyncratic set of conditions not favorable for the long passes (which would include O line competence....specific injuries at a specific time/game...and WR talent...etc) than other teams did in their games. 

 

Yes, the braintrust could have passed up or not seen favorable conditions...because of conservativeness....but jumping to that conclusion has a lot of bias in it because nothing in the two sets of data speaks to them failing to analyze favorable situations wrongly.   We don't know how many times they should have thrown it deeper but didn't.

 

You can't simply use a high success rate coupled with a low attempt total to claim that the frequency should have been higher.   JMO.

 

I think most folks expect that there will be more deep passes this year than last....because the underlying conditions have changed from last year.  Expectations that the oline to be healthy/competent, and more deep speed on the field with Campbell, Pierce, and even Woods at times, and a QB who may see the field better.

 

Basic logic can be applied to all things. Frequency ramp based on efficiency is not a complex idea. 

Sometimes coaches are just conservative or overly stuck to their scheme.

It's that simple.

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On 6/3/2022 at 2:22 PM, bestQBever said:

Honestly don't care about a QB with a big arm. If his arm is even a little stronger than Rivers, we should be fine. We are a run first team that just needs a QB to complete layups to convert first downs. Carson could hit a few big plays here and there but was atrocious in those layup moments unlike Phil Riv and hopefully Mr. Ryan

By Jeff George I believe you get 

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I will say I don't think much of Arthur Smith.  Blank for that matter as well.  I think Blank is a bit too nice as an owner, and he should have cleaned house end of the year when they made the call to move Ryan.

 

Looking at their depth chart they have a lot of losing ahead this year.  So I expect Smith will be the first coach canned, as on top of that it won't help that Ryan has a bit of a rebirth in Indy.

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8 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

I will say I don't think much of Arthur Smith.  Blank for that matter as well.  I think Blank is a bit too nice as an owner, and he should have cleaned house end of the year when they made the call to move Ryan.

 

Looking at their depth chart they have a lot of losing ahead this year.  So I expect Smith will be the first coach canned, as on top of that it won't help that Ryan has a bit of a rebirth in Indy.

 

Why don't you think much of Arthur Smith or that he will get canned? 

 

He's only been in ATL for one season. Hard to judge him on just one season, where they still won 7 games.

 

Prior to that, he was the OC in TEN 19 and 20 when TEN finished #6 and #4 in team offense (DVOA). They were #2 in pts/drive on offense in 2020. So the resume is strong for potential success on offense. 

 

With mobile QBs like Mariota and (possibly eventually) Ridder, the offense should look more like TEN (not necessarily performance, just play calling). Still need to get a better run game, but with Mike Davis gone, the run game should improve pretty dramatically.

 

ATL is resetting their cap this season (with $63M in dead cap), so that's a huge disadvantage to a HC. So I would bet he gets at least two seasons to show improvement and that there is a foundation in place, even if the losses start piling up.

 

If they can him after this season, I doubt he would be unemployed very long.  

 

 

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10 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

I will say I don't think much of Arthur Smith.  Blank for that matter as well.  I think Blank is a bit too nice as an owner, and he should have cleaned house end of the year when they made the call to move Ryan.

 

Looking at their depth chart they have a lot of losing ahead this year.  So I expect Smith will be the first coach canned, as on top of that it won't help that Ryan has a bit of a rebirth in Indy.

 

Probably hard to hire new guys in a year with 60+M dead cap spent on players not on the roster lol... 

 

They've got a few nice pieces to build around after they tank this season.

 

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10 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Why don't you think much of Arthur Smith or that he will get canned? 

 

He's only been in ATL for one season. Hard to judge him on just one season, where they still won 7 games.

I am aware of his history.  He was a bad hire.  Great coaching translates to production on the field.  Atlanta underperformed on both sides of the ball given that roster.  He is not someone grown men are going to follow, he's an OC at best the rest of the way once the owner realizes he needs to make the move.

 

If he was good there is no way he'd allow Ryan to be moved so he can replace him with Mariota.

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12 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

I am aware of his history.  He was a bad hire.  Great coaching translates to production on the field.  Atlanta underperformed on both sides of the ball given that roster.  He is not someone grown men are going to follow, he's an OC at best the rest of the way once the owner realizes he needs to make the move.

 

If he was good there is no way he'd allow Ryan to be moved so he can replace him with Mariota.

 

He'll likely want a Henry type RB, and a Tannehill type QB lol....

I think he'll be gone after this season, once ATL is out of dead cap hell. 

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Coaches are like QBs.  You want the guy who is the most competitive, refuse to lose, out in front leader possible.  There's room for style and all that but guys who settle for a bad roster aren't going to cut it in today's NFL.  And watch some vids of him speaking to the room.  No way that dude hoists a Lombardi unless he's under a guy who can do it.

 

Applying that same lesson to Reich he's in trouble.  I think, and this is just me reading the tea leaves, that the GM tied himself to Frank this offseason and if things go south it'll be a full house clean.  And I don't think the owner is going to wait for the team to rebound if they start slow.

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32 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

Coaches are like QBs.  You want the guy who is the most competitive, refuse to lose, out in front leader possible.  There's room for style and all that but guys who settle for a bad roster aren't going to cut it in today's NFL.  And watch some vids of him speaking to the room.  No way that dude hoists a Lombardi unless he's under a guy who can do it.

 

Applying that same lesson to Reich he's in trouble.  I think, and this is just me reading the tea leaves, that the GM tied himself to Frank this offseason and if things go south it'll be a full house clean.  And I don't think the owner is going to wait for the team to rebound if they start slow.

 

I don't really think that Ballard has tied himself to Reich. While I do think that Chris has tried to give Frank what he's asked for, I think it's likely that the big decisions like QB have all been signed off by Irsay. 

 

Overall though, and aside from QB musical chairs, I think Ballard has managed the roster pretty well. I don't see Frank as a bad HC, but don't see him as a good play caller either. 

 

IMO, if Irsay wanted to make a big change, doubt it would be a full cleanse. 

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Not sure how this evolved into a conversation about Reich, but I do have to agree that the playcalling needs to be looked it. He can devise some great schemes and plays, but sometimes his feel for the game is quite off. I wouldnt be opposed to he and the OC working together to devise the O and the offensive strategy for each game, but let someone else handle the play calling please Frank.

It's strange too because some games it looks on the money and others he looks lost. Just needs to be more consistent.

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On 6/4/2022 at 12:12 PM, EastStreet said:

 

Basic logic can be applied to all things. Frequency ramp based on efficiency is not a complex idea. 

Sometimes coaches are just conservative or overly stuck to their scheme.

It's that simple.

Frequency ramp is not appropriate for all situations, like times where the underpinnings of the data are loaded with non-homogeneity from many idiosyncrasies.  Understanding the nature of the data is essential when choosing how to process it or how much to rely upon the outcome.

 

Its why I prefer PFF when rating NFL players rather than my own take on simple stats.  There is an educated and experienced human element that judges situations and position responsibilities per play when rating players on their performances.  Unfortunately, there is no similar rating system for coaches decision making (that I am aware of), so a person might default to the more simpler forms of data processing.

 

No doubt that we have a conservative scheme.  I don't think using a simple frequency ramp applied to deep pass attempts relative other NFL teams with different personnel adds much illumination.  

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1 hour ago, Chucklez said:

Not sure how this evolved into a conversation about Reich, but I do have to agree that the playcalling needs to be looked it. He can devise some great schemes and plays, but sometimes his feel for the game is quite off. I wouldnt be opposed to he and the OC working together to devise the O and the offensive strategy for each game, but let someone else handle the play calling please Frank.

It's strange too because some games it looks on the money and others he looks lost. Just needs to be more consistent.

I believe that Marcus Brady is heavily involved in designing plays.  Frank calls them.  There are two issues here (at least)

 

Are the plays called just a matter of being the more conservative plays in the playbook...constantly skipping over the more aggressive plays?

 

Or are the play designs themselves conservative....as they design conservative array of receiving patterns, blocking schemes, or other scheming within them?

 

I think many are complaining that not enough unconservative plays are being called.  But, the plays themselves may have conservative designs that are hard to overcome, and a different play caller would be stuck with the same playbook.  The playbook philosophy would come from Marcus,  Frank,  and sanctioned by Ballard, whom I think would have addressed the issue if he wanted something different.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

I am aware of his history.  He was a bad hire.  Great coaching translates to production on the field.  Atlanta underperformed on both sides of the ball given that roster.  He is not someone grown men are going to follow, he's an OC at best the rest of the way once the owner realizes he needs to make the move.

 

If he was good there is no way he'd allow Ryan to be moved so he can replace him with Mariota.

 

I can't speak to what type of man he is.  

 

But I really disagree about the Matt Ryan take. He wanted to be traded.

 

But even if they could talk Ryan down, how was that Smith's call? Or even Fontenot's call? Just looking at Indy and Wentz, I imagine the owner made the call to acquiesce Ryan's trade request.

 

But the alternative was keeping a (now unhappy) aging Ryan with huge cap hits of $36M and $40M the next two seasons when ATL was already in cap hell. Trying to maximize a contention window that didn't even exist (especially after what they saw last season) is not good for job security for a new HC. Matt Ryan did him (and Fontenot) a favor by requesting that trade.

 

A good HC would want to be able to rebuild in that scenario. They get out of cap hell and Smith gets more influence (especially at QB) and he and Fontenot get to work on their shared vision for the team. 

 

They only got Mariota because they needed a vet QB and Mariota was available and Smith had coached him in TEN. It was rumored that is who the Colts were going to sign had the Ryan trade not happened. So if ATL doesn't pursue Watson, there's a decent chance that Mariota and Ridder are the Colts current QB depth chart.

   

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14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I don't really think that Ballard has tied himself to Reich. While I do think that Chris has tried to give Frank what he's asked for, I think it's likely that the big decisions like QB have all been signed off by Irsay. 

 

Overall though, and aside from QB musical chairs, I think Ballard has managed the roster pretty well. I don't see Frank as a bad HC, but don't see him as a good play caller either. 

 

IMO, if Irsay wanted to make a big change, doubt it would be a full cleanse. 

 

It would take a bad season for Reich to get fired, but in that case, my guess is that Reich becomes the Mora of the Ballard era...and Ballard gets one more crack at it. 

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6 hours ago, DougDew said:

Frequency ramp is not appropriate for all situations, like times where the underpinnings of the data are loaded with non-homogeneity from many idiosyncrasies.  Understanding the nature of the data is essential when choosing how to process it or how much to rely upon the outcome.

 

Its why I prefer PFF when rating NFL players rather than my own take on simple stats.  There is an educated and experienced human element that judges situations and position responsibilities per play when rating players on their performances.  Unfortunately, there is no similar rating system for coaches decision making (that I am aware of), so a person might default to the more simpler forms of data processing.

 

No doubt that we have a conservative scheme.  I don't think using a simple frequency ramp applied to deep pass attempts relative other NFL teams with different personnel adds much illumination.  

You've provided absolutely no logic to say a frequency ramp wouldn't apply. Just some drivel using big words/phrases like the bolded. You're basically attempting to imply that things are just too complex to apply simple deductive reasoning. And they are not. Especially when you admit that Reich favors conservative scheme to begin with. 

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5 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

It would take a bad season for Reich to get fired, but in that case, my guess is that Reich becomes the Mora of the Ballard era...and Ballard gets one more crack at it. 

 

Had Reich been Ballard's favorite when hired, I'd say they'd be somewhat tied. But he wasn't even considered first round, and was down the list in the 2nd round. And I'm sure Irsay was part of that process, especially when they got further down the list of applicants. Easily get another crack at it IMO. 

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Been a Matt Ryan fan since Boston. Ryan has never had a strong arm. If we push him for deep passes, it could be a recipe for interceptions, because his ball sails. We should focus on short passes, slants or crossing routes. This may be one of the best years for Taylor because Ryan often dumps the ball off to the RB. 

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On 6/3/2022 at 5:22 PM, bestQBever said:

Honestly don't care about a QB with a big arm. If his arm is even a little stronger than Rivers, we should be fine. We are a run first team that just needs a QB to complete layups to convert first downs. Carson could hit a few big plays here and there but was atrocious in those layup moments unlike Phil Riv and hopefully Mr. Ryan

Ryan can do that.

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On 6/1/2022 at 1:28 PM, AwesomeAustin said:

I think his arm is fine. Ryan will be a good to borderline great QB. I doubt he will be able to play at an elite level for an entire season. I just hope he can operate the offense, especially in the red zone at an elite level. If he can throw close to 30tds and 4K yards we will be in great shape. 

Just a little perspective ... Matt Ryan has thrown 28 or more touchdowns in a season  7 times (50%) in his career with the last time in 2018 (35 TDs). He passed for only 20 touchdowns last year with 12 INTs. I think we should be optimistic about the coming year, but we should stabilize expectations so that Ryan is not set up to fail ... from an expectations and perceptions perspective. IJS.

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23 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You've provided absolutely no logic to say a frequency ramp wouldn't apply. Just some drivel using big words/phrases like the bolded. You're basically attempting to imply that things are just too complex to apply simple deductive reasoning. And they are not. Especially when you admit that Reich favors conservative scheme to begin with. 

Good lord, its dripping with logic. 

 

What's illogical is to say that we can determine that a team should have thrown deep more (or less) during games simply because of how deep passes rank in terms of efficiency and attempts relative to the rest of the league.  

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On 6/3/2022 at 11:30 AM, shasta519 said:

 

 

Last season, Wentz's overall deep ball accuracy was 54% (#10 in the NFL). 

 

Ryan's overall deep ball accuracy was 46% (#22 in the NFL).

 

In every deep passing situation: under pressure, throwing into tight/open windows, throwing inside/outside the pocket...Wentz was actually more accurate (far more in some cases). Most notably was "under pressure," where Wentz was #3 in the NFL with 70% accuracy, while Ryan was #19 with 44% accuracy.

 

Posted in another thread, but here is the 2021 Deep Ball Project:

 

 

If Wentz was carried by Pittman, then the less accurate deep ball thrower definitely had help.

 

Especially when you consider that Ryan, while being less accurate, had a higher completion % and a much higher CPOE

CPOE (completion % over expectation) on deep passes. 

 

This is why I don't buy that narrative that ATL had a lack of weapons. Bad OL...yes. Bad pass catchers...no. Pitts is a stud and Patterson was a strong deep threat when they used him that way. 

I recommend that fans watch the 2021 Atlanta Falcons season to see what our new QB is capable of doing. Stats are often misleading. I’ve watched 7 games so far (Falcons-Eagles, Falcons-Cowboys, Falcons-Jets, Falcons-Saints, Falcons-Jaguars, Falcons-Bucs, and Falcons-Patriots). Hopefully Ryan will do well here behind a better line, but he had weapons last year. Many of the games that Atlanta won resulted from plays made by C. Patterson. I’ll put it this way, if we didn’t watch Wentz last year and just compared his numbers to Ryan’s, choosing Wentz as our QB would be a no-brainer. Wentz had more touchdowns and less interceptions than Ryan last season. Our success this year will ride on Taylor’s performance, because he will get a lot of check-down passes.

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On 6/12/2022 at 8:43 AM, Coltzman said:

I recommend that fans watch the 2021 Atlanta Falcons season to see what our new QB is capable of doing. Stats are often misleading. I’ve watched 7 games so far (Falcons-Eagles, Falcons-Cowboys, Falcons-Jets, Falcons-Saints, Falcons-Jaguars, Falcons-Bucs, and Falcons-Patriots). Hopefully Ryan will do well here behind a better line, but he had weapons last year. Many of the games that Atlanta won resulted from plays made by C. Patterson. I’ll put it this way, if we didn’t watch Wentz last year and just compared his numbers to Ryan’s, choosing Wentz as our QB would be a no-brainer. Wentz had more touchdowns and less interceptions than Ryan last season. Our success this year will ride on Taylor’s performance, because he will get a lot of check-down passes.

 

Agree that people should watch it. Objectively, you see Ryan throwing some very accurate passes, but you also see him getting some help from pass catchers. Pitts is a stud.

 

And Patterson was such a huge weapon. Ryan had a 116 passer rating when throwing to him and I think there were 3-4 TDs where he took a short pass/dump off to the house. Ryan probably has <20 TDs without CPatt. He also has the ability to burn DBs on deep passes.  Ryan gets credit for putting him in the position to succeed, as does the coaching staff, but Patterson's playmaking last season was incredible.

 

On that note...Nyheim Hines is NOT Cordarelle Patterson. But his role will be important with Ryan.

 

Wentz and Ryan are very different QBs, so it's hard to compare. But I think people (aka the local media) are really overselling the accuracy part and using that to scapegoat Wentz. Ryan's accuracy will certainly help the offense in the short passing game, but it's not like there won't be a trade-off. 

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2 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Agree that people should watch it. Objectively, you see Ryan throwing some very accurate passes, but you also see him getting some help from pass catchers. Pitts is a stud.

 

And Patterson was such a huge weapon. Ryan had a 116 passer rating when throwing to him and I think there were 3-4 TDs where he took a short pass/dump off to the house. Ryan probably has <20 TDs without CPatt. He also has the ability to burn DBs on deep passes.  Ryan gets credit for putting him in the position to succeed, as does the coaching staff, but Patterson's playmaking last season was incredible.

 

On that note...Nyheim Hines is NOT Cordarelle Patterson. But his role will be important with Ryan.

 

Wentz and Ryan are very different QBs, so it's hard to compare. But I think people (aka the local media) are really overselling the accuracy part and using that to scapegoat Wentz. Ryan's accuracy will certainly help the offense in the short passing game, but it's not like there won't be a trade-off. 

Matt Ryan is a top 25 QB of all-time like Rivers is. Wentz isn't even top 50. I feel a lot better about coming into this season than last, just like 2020 with Rivers - I felt good and my prediction was right that we would make the playoffs in 2020. 

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