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Will the Colts rushing O take a step back in 2022? Plus more RB stuff: Discussion and Poll


Will the Colts rushing O take a step back in 2022? Discussion and Poll  

76 members have voted

  1. 1. Will JT's average (5.5 in 2021) increase, decrease, or stay the same in 2022?

    • Increase (5.6 or higher)
    • Stay the same (5.5)
    • Decrease a bit (5.0-5.4)
    • Decrease substantially (under 5.0)
  2. 2. How many yards will JT rush for this season (1811 in 2021)

  3. 3. Overall, are we a more or less efficient (success rate) running team in 2022?

  4. 4. Does Nyheim's snaps increase or decrease in 2022 (they decreased a bit 2020 to 2021)

  5. 5. Will Hines see substantial time as slot WR?

    • Yes, and a good amount
    • Just a little bit
    • Nope
  6. 6. How many yards will Lindsay rush for


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  • Poll closed on 06/22/2022 at 09:18 AM

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Read a few articles that have in one way or another suggested that our run efficiency at least, and possibly our rushing total or rushing average (JT 5.5, NH 4.9) take a step back. 

 

The articles had different spins, but here most of the reasons given.

 

  • Offensive Line losses (Departure of OL starters Glow and Fisher).
    • Glow has always been a solid run blocker, and IIRC, our efficiency and/or success rate running right has been as good or better than running left. 
      • The front runner to replace Glow now looks to be Pinter, who while a wild card, looked to have pretty good vertical punch. 
    • While Fisher was pretty bad in pass pro, he was pretty darn good most games run blocking. 
      • Pryor graded better than Fisher in pass pro, but not as effective in run blocking. 
  • WR/TE losses (departure of Pascal and Doyle)
    • Doyle - While some were never impressed with Doyle as an offensive weapon, he was always a pretty darn good blocker
      • Woods and Ogletree - blocking is seen as weaknesses in both their games
      • Granson - also is suspect in the blocking space
    • Pascal - not much of a pass catching weapon, but like Doyle, very solid blocking
      • Pierce - didn't block much, but has great hands vs the press, and seems pretty "tough" or "physical". Doubt he's running boundary 9s all game, so this is an area to watch. 
  • JT - is no longer going to surprise teams in 2022
  • Hines - perhaps becoming more of a receiver than runner. NH's efficiency actually improved last season even though his snaps went down. I could make a case that this could be a pro or a con.

 

 

Things that IMO, might offset things for the positive

  • Ryan - Should be better in short passing game, so perhaps Frank will call a more well rounded game plan that keeps DBs from cheating up
  • Nelson - returning to good health
  • Kelly - getting back on track after regressing the past few seasons
  • Addition of Lindsay, who is perhaps a better #2 RB option (rushing, not catching) than Hines
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I think regression is likely but don't anticipate it being significant. 

 

The changes to the O-Line are probably for the worse rather than for the better (though this certainly isn't clear or certain), I think Hines will play more of a role overall on offense, and I don't think the loss of Doyle can be understated. 

 

I also think the passing game should be better too though. I voted that efficiency will stay the same but I could actually see the efficiency increase even if the overall production decreases. Though it's not as if we weren't already efficient last season.

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I am not sure how I missed this thread. Great work as usual East. I went, 1. Same, 2. 1600 to 1799, I think Hines will be used more and we have Lindsay now. Taylor gained an obscene amount of yards last year but I can see around 1700. 3. About the same, 4. Increase, 5. A little bit, 6. 200 to 299.

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I think Taylor will be less efficient due to teams knowing what to expect from us and him and our Oline changes.
He’ll have 1200-1399 yards due less efficiency and fewer carries in an effort to keep him fresh for a possible playoff run. 
 

I think Hines snaps will increase and he will have a good amount of snaps at slot WR. 
 

Lindsay will be used more than expected and have about 300-399 yards over the season. 

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The squad looks to be better in Pass Blocking,slightly worse at run blocking. Doyle and Pascal were def good blockers. Not sure how much Lindsay has left,last season was ugly hope he bounces back,sometimes injuries dont let a play recover what they were even when young.

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First off, I think JTs numbers last year were inflated by Reich continuing to feed him the ball as he lost confidence in Wentz......looking for JT to make the big play or the oline to get the big block.  Also, perhaps realizing that Fisher could run block better than pass block.  Also, a realization that the WR group lacked big play weapons, and that JT was the offense's biggest big play threat.  He really was.   (As an aside, in the 2021 NFL, a RB being the best big play threat speaks to a personnel problem on offense, which appears to have been addressed to a degree.)

 

There is a good chance that his rushing totals decline, but his YPC increase as he is used better.  Last year, I think he was given the ball in hopes he broke one, with a lot of runs being small gains because of the box.  This year, those run calls might be pass calls to a better receiving group.

 

JT might have increased yards from scrimmage.  Having a QB that puts the ball on the front shoulder of a swing pass or any short route might invite more of those play calls (or Ryan simply chooses to see the check down).  JT's strength is his straight speed.  He's not really a change of direction RB that flourishes with a misplaced pass to his back shoulder. 

 

I predict fewer overall rushing yards for the O, but increased YPC for the O.

 

Increased yards per scrimmage for the RBs as the Total Offense gains more yards than last year, and the QB sees the check down.

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22 minutes ago, DougDew said:

First off, I think JTs numbers last year were inflated by Reich continuing to feed him the ball as he lost confidence in Wentz......looking for JT to make the big play or the oline to get the big block.  Also, perhaps realizing that Fisher could run block better than pass block.  Also, a realization that the WR group lacked big play weapons, and that JT was the offense's biggest big play threat.  He really was.   (As an aside, in the 2021 NFL, a RB being the best big play threat speaks to a personnel problem on offense, which appears to have been addressed to a degree.)

 

There is a good chance that his rushing totals decline, but his YPC increase as he is used better.  Last year, I think he was given the ball in hopes he broke one, with a lot of runs being small gains because of the box.  This year, those run calls might be pass calls to a better receiving group.

 

JT might have increased yards from scrimmage.  Having a QB that puts the ball on the front shoulder of a swing pass or any short route might invite more of those play calls (or Ryan simply chooses to see the check down).  JT's strength is his straight speed.  He's not really a change of direction RB that flourishes with a misplaced pass to his back shoulder. 

 

I predict fewer overall rushing yards for the O, but increased YPC for the O.

 

Increased yards per scrimmage for the RBs as the Total Offense gains more yards than last year, and the QB sees the check down.

I think his average yards per carry will be about the same but he will gain 1600, maybe 1700 yards. He had over 1800 last year but I think Hines will be used more this season. 

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I don’t recall Taylor being used a lot in the beginning of last year.  It was only after we started to win some games that his carries started to increase and when they did he started to break out and his performance practically demanded that he be used more.  And suddenly he and we took off and he was mentioned as an MVP candidate.  I think he improved dramatically as a runner last year.  He is in a big confidence groove right now.  I expect him to establish himself as the best running back in the league and to have another big season.

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I’m not too worried about the Tightend blocking much tbh with Ryan they’ll probably be receiving he loves his TE if you look at the past or maybe it by scheme idk 

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Saying we were ranked 2nd in total rushing yards and 1st in YPC, it would seem likely we would go down. I expect a balanced offense with Ryan under center. However, this team is making moves that point toward believing a SB is very possible. I do find it very interesting and exciting that while everyone was loading up on offense we focused on defense to go with our strong running game. With competent QB play and the weapons we have on offense, I think this formula can work and frustrate a lot of these teams with elite QBs. 

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If I was a coordinator v. Taylor I would rarely play single high safety because of the breakaway threat.  Ain’t gonna watch film on it but I would guess that there was more C2 shell the last month.  Theoretically, this should make for less long runs but higher success rate between the tackles.  
 

The line is going to be 40% new and I don’t really have a feel for how dominant it will be.  It will be better than it was when everyone was hurt in the first month, but I think we are really taking a big chance at LT.  It was disastrous In the last two games.  Fischer wasn’t great but he was serviceable.  
 

I would expect less rushing period.  Less attempts, less ypc because of adjustments to JTs long threat.  But the offense could be better overall IF Ryan is good in the short passing game.  I think that is where this o could really take a step forward, but there are lots of unknowns there too.

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21 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t recall Taylor being used a lot in the beginning of last year.  It was only after we started to win some games that his carries started to increase and when they did he started to break out and his performance practically demanded that he be used more.  And suddenly he and we took off and he was mentioned as an MVP candidate.  I think he improved dramatically as a runner last year.  He is in a big confidence groove right now.  I expect him to establish himself as the best running back in the league and to have another big season.

 

  Yes, complaints were rampant here that Taylor wasn't getting enough carries. He ended up getting a few too many for the season.
 Fisher was a dominate run blocker at times, so that should be a step back.

 Healthy Q, Kelly, Smith should be a step up.
 IMO, over a full season, Pinter will prove a clearly better pass blocker and as good a run blocker as Glow. So a step up. And our depth is a step up.
 Doyle was a very good blocker but didn't play a ton of snaps. I believe our TE'S ability to stress D's in the passing game will be significantly better because of Ryan and Woods. This will open up running opportunities.
 I expect a very strong running game, with fewer attempts, fewer really long runs, a nice jump in 6-7 yard runs (like the days of Edge).
 And many more 10-20 yd plays with Taylor and Hines catching swing passes, screens.
 The spread between what we score and what we give up could be one of the best. Those numbers of course will have the most meaning After we have played 5 games. Our D Will start fast. We have many excellent pieces.
 We look to be a VERY tough out!

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2 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  Yes, complaints were rampant here that Taylor wasn't getting enough carries. He ended up getting a few too many for the season.
 Fisher was a dominate run blocker at times, so that should be a step back.

 Healthy Q, Kelly, Smith should be a step up.
 IMO, over a full season, Pinter will prove a clearly better pass blocker and as good a run blocker as Glow. So a step up. And our depth is a step up.
 Doyle was a very good blocker but didn't play a ton of snaps. I believe our TE'S ability to stress D's in the passing game will be significantly better because of Ryan and Woods. This will open up running opportunities.
 I expect a very strong running game, with fewer attempts, fewer really long runs, a nice jump in 6-7 yard runs (like the days of Edge).
 And many more 10-20 yd plays with Taylor and Hines catching swing passes, screens.
 The spread between what we score and what we give up could be one of the best. Those numbers of course will have the most meaning After we have played 5 games. Our D Will start fast. We have many excellent pieces.
 We look to be a VERY tough out!

I have us at 11-6 and think Matt Ryan is good. As I have stated, I think he is a top 25 QB of all-time or so. Taylor is the best RB in the league IMO, I would take him over Henry as of now because he is younger. What will really have me believing that we can win the SB is if we start 2-0, then in week 3 beat KC. I think we will start 2-0, get the opening win finally and get the Jacks Jinx over with. Week 3 beating KC will really get everyone's attention.

 

I think we win the division regardless :thmup:

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I am probably lower on JT's production this year than most. But it has nothing to do with JT himself.

 

There will likely be a bit of regression in efficiency (maybe not, but I would be there is some) and I don't think he is going to get MORE touches than he did last year.

 

I think we might see them go back to the approach they had prior to JT getting here, where a RB would spell the RB1 here and there. Last season, they just had to rely on JT carrying the team, but I think they want to get away from that if they can.

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I think the run game regresses some. Loved what Ballard did this off season with the exception of right guard. Can see letting Glow walk for the money the Giants gave him but was impressed with Reed last year and he signed for peanuts. Very concerned with our interior line depth. Pinter must really be impressing the coaches. I liked him at center and I am sure he will be the backup when Kelly gets dinged which he seem to often. As East said Fisher was a very good blocker and will be missed in the running game. I have him for 1400+ and less YPC. Hope I'm wrong.

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I think the running game will suffer because the passing game is going to increase dramatically.

What I would love to see is the proverbial balanced offensive attack!

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On 5/23/2022 at 2:26 PM, hoosierhawk said:

I think the run game regresses some. Loved what Ballard did this off season with the exception of right guard. Can see letting Glow walk for the money the Giants gave him but was impressed with Reed last year and he signed for peanuts. Very concerned with our interior line depth. Pinter must really be impressing the coaches. I liked him at center and I am sure he will be the backup when Kelly gets dinged which he seem to often. As East said Fisher was a very good blocker and will be missed in the running game. I have him for 1400+ and less YPC. Hope I'm wrong.

RG and LT will both be interesting areas to watch. Not horribly concerned with either though. Our iOL depth looks like dung now, so would have been nice to keep Reed given he took a super cheap short contract. Glow didn't get big money (6ishM per year) with NYG, but I can understand them looking for savings at RG. 

22 hours ago, CanuckColt said:

We cannot keep giving the ball to Taylor at the same rate and expect him to stay healthy.

Given the mileage on him from college, I'd hope we look to balance things better going forward. Hoping the passing game takes some pressure off this season, hope Hines gets more snaps, and hope we have the lead late that allows us to more carries from a depth RB.... 

1 hour ago, jmac_48 said:

I think the running game will suffer because the passing game is going to increase dramatically.

What I would love to see is the proverbial balanced offensive attack!

let's hope!

 

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