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2022 Win Projection Discussion and Poll (schedule breakdown) - please read OP


(Please read OP) - 2022 Win Projection Discussion and Poll (schedule breakdown)  

48 members have voted

  1. 1. How many wins will the Colts have

  2. 2. Do we beat two bad teams (Houston and Jax) on the road to begin the seaon

  3. 3. Do we beat KC at home in game 3?

  4. 4. Do we beat TN at home in game 4?


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  • Poll closes on 08/14/2022 at 07:02 AM

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Please read the OP (original post) before voting

 

 

So took the time to look in depth and thoughtfully at our schedule (prior opponent schedule, matchups) .

PFN calls our schedule, "the most manageable", and I tend to agree. Sets up nicely for us.

 

So take advantage of the below readout, and put your money where your mouth is lol... 

 

 

 

Week    Date                  Opponent                           Time (ET)       TV

1            Sept. 11             @ Houston Texans        1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: none
  • The skinny: We have been the king of suck opening. If we can't win this game against a bad team with a new coach, I might tune totally out. 
  • Predictions: Colts 35-13

2            Sept. 18             @ Jacksonville Jaguars              1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent:    at Commanders 
  • The skinny: We have been the king of suck at the Jags. See above             
  • Predictions: Colts 31-17

3            Sept. 25              Kansas City Chiefs               1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: at Cards then LAC
  • The skinny: Two huge games for KC. HUGE. It could be a season statement of us. 
  • Predictions: Colts 34-31

4            Oct. 2                 Tennessee Titans                 1 p.m.             FOX

  • Prior opponent: at the Bills, then home vs the Raiders. At WA after us. 
  • The skinny: Huge game for us. TN had two big games before us, we have one. We could be 3-0 in the division at this point. And perhaps a win over KC... 
  • Predictions: Colts 24-21, Colts 4-0

5            Oct. 6 (TNF)       @ Denver Broncos               8:15 p.m.       Prime Video

  • Prior opponent: 49ers, then at LVR. After us, LAC..... lots of pressure. Hard stretch for them. 
  • The skinny: New QB, and great roster. 
  • Predictions: Broncos 38-27, Colts 4-1

Mini-bye

  • The skinny: longer break than normal, but IF we do have unhealthy guys, it's time for a somewhat longer rest. 

6            Oct. 16               Jacksonville Jaguars             1 p.m.            CBS

  • Prior opponent: at LAC, at Philly, then Houston at home
  • The skinny: One of the worst teams in the league at home. We don't win, we sssssssuuuuuuuccccckkkkkk
  • Predictions: Colts by 20+, Colts 5-1

7            Oct. 23              @ Tennessee Titans              1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: at WFT then a bye. WTH giving a division home team a bye. 
  • The skinny: This game sets the tone for us. Defend Indy, or let TN take control. 
  • Predictions: Colts 27-23, Colts 6-1

8            Oct. 30               Washington Commanders   4:25 p.m.        FOX

  • Prior opponent: at Bears, then Packers
  • The skinny: two tough games for them. If we can't beat them at home, another reason to tune out.. 
  • Predictions: Colts 38-34, Colts 7-1

9            Nov. 6               @ New England Patriots       1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: Bears and at Jets
  • The skinny: Easy games before us, but we should win if you simply look at the roster. But it's Bill.....
  • Predictions: Colts 27-20, Colts 8-1

10          Nov. 13             @ Las Vegas Raiders             4:05 p.m.        CBS

  • Prior opponent: at Saints, then at Jags
  • The skinny: Trap game for us. LVR is an interesting team by this time. 
  • Predictions: LVR 31-27, Colts 8-2

11          Nov. 20             Philadelphia Eagles               1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: at TX, then WFT
  • The skinny: This game could cement Reich's future. Should be a home win. Philly's QB is just not that good. 
  • Predictions: Colts 27-24, Colts 9-2

12          Nov. 28 (MNF)  Pittsburgh Steelers                8:15 p.m.       ESPN

  • Prior opponent: NO, then division foe Bengals
  • The skinny: Pitt should be bad... or at best with a new rook QB. If we lose at home, another reason to tune out given our history. 
  • Predictions: Colts 38-17, Colts 10-2

13          Dec. 4 (SNF)      @ Dallas Cowboys                8:20 p.m.        NBC

  • Prior opponent: at MN then home vs NYG
  • The skinny: I hate the timing, and Dallas has an easy lead up. 
  • Predictions: Cowboys 45-38, Colts 10-3

14  BYE WEEK

  • The skinny: While I wish the bye would have been before Dallas, this should give us needed rest. 
  • Predictions: 

15          Dec. 17/18        @ Minnesota Vikings           TBD                TBD

  • Prior opponent: Jets then at Detroit. Not the hardest. 
  • The skinny: Our second trap game IMO. We should win, but need to get up after a bye.
  • Predictions: Vikes 31-26, Colts 10-4

16          Dec. 26 (MNF)   Los Angeles Chargers          8:15 p.m.        ESPN

  • Prior opponent: Miami then Titans. Two home games, and I hope they beat TN. They have LAR after us, so hoping they are looking ahead. 
  • The skinny: This game will tell us a ton
  • Predictions: LAC 31-24, Colts 10-5

17          Jan. 1                 @ New York Giants              1 p.m.             CBS

  • Prior opponent: at WA, and at MN. Don't think it will matter. They are simply wanting to be spoilers at this stage. 
  • The skinny: Bad team, we should win. 
  • Predictions: Colts 48-27, Colts 11-5

18          Jan. 7/8              Houston Texans                   TBD                TBD

  • Prior opponent: at TN and Houston. 
  • The skinny: Closing out at home vs a bad team that has played two division opponents. If we don't win, we suck. 
  • Predictions: 51-23, Colts 12-5
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Voted 10 wins, Yes, No, and No.

 

I think we win the 1st two games relatively easy and get destroyed by KC. After that, it could go either way, but I feel we'll lose to Tenn and end up being 2-2 and rebounding from there to finish 10-7 and make the playoffs.

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32 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Voted 10 wins, Yes, No, and No.

 

I think we win the 1st two games relatively easy and get destroyed by KC. After that, it could go either way, but I feel we'll lose to Tenn and end up being 2-2 and rebounding from there to finish 10-7 and make the playoffs.

Booooo you. 

lol... 

Wouldn't be shocked though. 

 

My current optimistic opinion is that our new Bradley DL will sack Mahomey several times. 

And then we guy out a win vs TN...

 

That assumes 2 big things. Our DL, no one gapping, does better and Flus's read/react D, and that Reich is not so conservative. 

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11, split, yes, yes... 

 

I just don't trust this team in Jacksonville. Plus... if Trevor Lawrence is what everybody thought he was, year 2 is when it's really going to start to show and the Jags might not be as bad as people think. 

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Booooo you. 

lol... 

Wouldn't be shocked though. 

 

My current optimistic opinion is that our new Bradley DL will sack Mahomey several times. 

And then we guy out a win vs TN...

 

That assumes 2 big things. Our DL, no one gapping, does better and Flus's read/react D, and that Reich is not so conservative. 

Yeah, I won't be able to trust Reich until he actually proves he can call a consistently good season. That doesn't mean we have to win every game, but it means not making boneheaded decisions that a rookie or bad coach would consistently make. He should be past that by now. Gus is what he is. I think he'll be fine with the defense he has. Not a fan of the CB and EDGE depth right now, but hopefully it gets filled out. I'm worried about Gus's aggressiveness myself.

 

My other worry is the same one I've always had. We'll dominate the lesser QBs, and give up big games to any QB worth their weight and lose by falling behind and forcing Matt Ryan to pass. That's why I say 10-7.

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Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Yeah, I won't be able to trust Reich until he actually proves he can call a consistently good season. That doesn't mean we have to win every game, but it means not making boneheaded decisions that a rookie or bad coach would consistently make. He should be past that by now.

Even if Reich is himself, IMO we have too much talent. I know, I know, we've had it before... lol..

But IMO Ryan will lead, and actually lead Reich. 

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Gus is what he is. I think he'll be fine with the defense he has. Not a fan of the CB and EDGE depth right now, but hopefully it gets filled out. I'm worried about Gus's aggressiveness myself.

Not saying Gus will be a genius. But I'm confident our pass rush will be better. Flus was pure read/react. Bus is gap attack. Guys on rails will get home. They might miss more tackles or be at risk more to mobile QBs, but we should kill Houston and Jax. 

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

 

My other worry is the same one I've always had. We'll dominate the lesser QBs, and give up big games to any QB worth their weight and lose by falling behind and forcing Matt Ryan to pass. That's why I say 10-7.

I think we'll do better overall on D. A lot better vs good QBs, but less good vs good RBs.

Ryan hopefully ends up being the OC lol. 

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I voted 11, very optimistic with Matt at QB but don't want to be a huge Homer The Simpsons GIF by KiwiGo (KGO), 2. yes - monkey off the back by winning on opening day, monkey off the back by winning at Jacks, 3. No - I think we lose to KC, 4. Yes - we will beat Tennessee here and start 3-1 = dictating the season on our terms finally.

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15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I voted 11, very optimistic with Matt at QB but don't want to be a huge Homer The Simpsons GIF by KiwiGo (KGO), 2. yes - monkey off the back by winning on opening day, monkey off the back by winning at Jacks, 3. No - I think we lose to KC, 4. Yes - we will beat Tennessee here and start 3-1 = dictating the season on our terms finally.

@Fluke_33voted 17-0 Thats Good Christina Aguilera GIF

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1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

I looked at each game and can see a win each time.  Why pick a loss now?  Lol

I almost voted 12-5 because I feel like Matt can match what Tennessee and Tannehill did last year. In order do that we would have to sweep them. We could, I think we definitely split with them at worse. The middle part of our schedule is rough and that KC game will be tough as well. 

 

I had 3 records going through my head = 10-7, 11-6, 12-5. So I just chose 11-6, to me Matt with a healthy Taylor should be an 11 win team at worse. 

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14 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I almost voted 12-5 because I feel like Matt can match what Tennessee and Tannehill did last year. In order do that we would have to sweep them. We could, I think we definitely split with them at worse. The middle part of our schedule is rough and that KC game will be tough as well. 

 

I had 3 records going through my head = 10-7, 11-6, 12-5. So I just chose 11-6, to me Matt with a healthy Taylor should be an 11 win team at worse. 

I posted this on another thread but I see the division playing out like this:

 

1. Colts 11-6 (5-1 in the division, split with Tennessee)

2. Tennessee 11-6 (4-2 in the division)

3. Jacks 8-9

4. Houston 3-14

-we win the division based on division record. Matt can match Tannehill and be better than him when it counts. Our D is just as good as their's is now with our additions, they no longer have an advantage at RB either = Taylor and Henry are pretty even. Taylor is now arguably better. I think in the passing game, Hines will catch around 60 passes, he caught 63 with Rivers at QB. Pitt will be an 80-90 catch guy so they will answer the bell in big moments. Pierce will shine at times and catching a few deep passes as well. I think we have an edge on the O.Line too. Nelson will be 100% coming into camp, he wasn't last year. I give Vrabel the coaching edge over Frank but it is minimal, Frank is good. Tannehill losing Brown will cost them in the end, watch and see.

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I just looked up Vegas odds regarding the Colts odds at doing this things:

 

Now the schedule is out, Vegas has this

Winning the Division = Colts and Titans are dead even on who wins the division, yes dead even. Now we could still get a player like Bradberry, or TY, or Julio which would tilt it our way but as of now even odds. At even odds if you bet 100 dollars that the Colts win the division, you win 100 dollars = self explanatory. If we don't you lose 100.

 

Going to the AFC Title Game = Colts are a 9-1 odd, not bad, if you place a bet now as in 100 dollars on that, you would win 900 dollars if they make it that far. Only lose 100 if they don't.

 

Winning the AFC = 13-1 odds. Bet 100 dollars, if they do this, you win 1300 dollars. Only lose 100 if they don't.

 

Winning the SB = 22-1 odds. Bet 100 dollars, if they do this, you win 2200 dollars. Only lose 100 if they don't. Being a 22-1 odd is giving us respect actually. We are tied for 10th in this category, top 10 lol.

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I voted for 12 wins. I think with Matt Ryan, there will be less mistakes made in some crucial moments, which should be enough to keep us competitive in every game we play this year. Playing the AFC West sucks, but if we can at least split against them, we'll be one battle-tested team come January. 

 

Defend home. Split the road games. Do that and we're in the playoffs this year. 

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7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I just looked up Vegas odds regarding the Colts odds at doing this things:

. Winning the SB = 22-1 odds. Bet 100 dollars, if they do this, you win 2200 dollars. Only lose 100 if they don't. Being a 22-1 odd is giving us respect actually. We are tied for 10th in this category, top 10 lol.

I bet the super bowl for 300 last year but half way through the book maker who was a pats fan asked if I wanted to switch to who would win more games from that point on pats or colts.   I think I’ll put the 300 down again this year.  

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19 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm reserved about coaching and the roster, but wow @Tripp and @Nesjan3 

8 or less?

Yah im not thrilled about the team this year. I think Frank is pretty bad, the roster has gotten worse IMO. Unless some rookies and players from the last 2 draft classes really take a big step this year. Im also not convinced Matt Ryan is a huge upgrade from Wentz, he hasn't been that great for the Falcons the last two years and he is in the final years of his career. Everyone who has watched a lot of football knows that when QB's not named Tom Brady are done they fall off a cliff its not gradual.

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4 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

Yah im not thrilled about the team this year. I think Frank is pretty bad, the roster has gotten worse IMO. Unless some rookies and players from the last 2 draft classes really take a big step this year. Im also not convinced Matt Ryan is a huge upgrade from Wentz, he hasn't been that great for the Falcons the last two years and he is in the final years of his career. Everyone who has watched a lot of football knows that when QB's not named Tom Brady are done they fall off a cliff its not gradual.


Well….  Props to you, at least you’re honest even when your view is unpopular.   Owning your views is not always an easy thing to do. 
 

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With 5 of the first 7 games being division foes, another slow start will doom the Colts.  The course of the season will pretty much be decided upon the conclusion of game 7.  By my recollection, never has a fast start been more important than this coming up season.

 

12 wins is my thought.  I expect a range of 11-13 wins.

2-0 start.

6-1 to 5-2 in first seven games.

Critically important to win all 5 division games in the first seven games of the season.

 

6-1 is the target goal. Go Colts!

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12 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

Yah im not thrilled about the team this year. I think Frank is pretty bad, the roster has gotten worse IMO. Unless some rookies and players from the last 2 draft classes really take a big step this year. Im also not convinced Matt Ryan is a huge upgrade from Wentz, he hasn't been that great for the Falcons the last two years and he is in the final years of his career. Everyone who has watched a lot of football knows that when QB's not named Tom Brady are done they fall off a cliff its not gradual.

Ryan Reynolds Cool Story Bro GIF by The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard

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On 5/13/2022 at 8:48 PM, Nesjan3 said:

Yah im not thrilled about the team this year. I think Frank is pretty bad, the roster has gotten worse IMO. Unless some rookies and players from the last 2 draft classes really take a big step this year. Im also not convinced Matt Ryan is a huge upgrade from Wentz, he hasn't been that great for the Falcons the last two years and he is in the final years of his career. Everyone who has watched a lot of football knows that when QB's not named Tom Brady are done they fall off a cliff its not gradual.

I'm more optimistic about our D taking a step forward, than our O. I think at minimum, our pass rush will be better given the change in DL scheme (gap rush vs read/react). That should translate into better DB pass D as well. Only risk IMO is run D. 

 

On O, I share your concerns with Reich. The scheme thus far and play calling has bee painful to watch. I agree Ryan is likely on downside, but I think he's got enough left in the tank for a few years of good football. My biggest fear is that Reich's conservative scheme and schizo play calling at times, holds us back. I still would like to see a vet WR added. At this point, I think that's the most bang for buck. But I don't want TY back if Reich is going to use him like possession WR. 

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Per some of the reporting, Colts have one the weakest schedules, and also most manageable schedules. I actually like the way our schedule sets up. 

 

Titans have some brutal stretches, and weren't as lucky on the home vs road front that we were. Overall, the pure SoS (solely based on last seasons W%) is pretty close (Colts vs TN), but the timing and "where" clearly looks better for Indy IMO. 

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