WR Plan for 2022: Discussion and Poll (please read OP before voting)

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

Sorry to be blunt, but no it doesn't.  That's too shallow of a take.  Success rates only mean that there was high success when we chose to throw it deep...meaning the conditions that made it ripe for success were present, and the staff/QB properly saw those conditions and executed well.  It does not speak to how many other times those conditions existed but we failed to attempt it.  IOW, a high success rate indicates very good play calling.  Low total attempts tends to mean the conditions were not ripe, because the high success rate shows that Frank/QB can tell when they are ripe, and the conditions were not present.

 

But before saying it is bad or good play calling, a person needs to understand the conditions that underpinned the successes, and see how many times those conditions existed during plays where the ball wasn't thrown deep...concluding that we should have thrown it deep then too.  Those are the types of details that OCs and QBs...and GMs and owners.... are good at reviewing, and the types of things fans suck at reviewing.  But fans somehow still feel well enough informed to pass judgment on play calling. 

 

High success rates are a good thing, yet you still find a way to bash Frank for them.

 

But if you want to make a generalization that the O is more of a short game ball control than a vertical big chunk O, that's a reasonable observation.  And yes, that alone would explain fewer deep shots, but its not bad play calling.  Its also unfair to criticize the lack of deep shots in a vacuum when its part of a greater plan to hold the ball, milk clock, avoid interceptions...while also trying to feed your big chunk play RB to get yards that a deep pass might get if called. 

 

There were no other viable options.  There are now with AP on board.   His high stats are drawn from a shallow universe of data during a season that can be explained as a season full of failed plans with offensive personnel.  I would not use that to predict how he is going to be used this year when a new WR with 4.41 speed and outside experience is on board for 4 years.     

 

The plan for PC to migrate from playing slot to the outside was a function of TYs original contract expiring.  (IOW, not having another viable option on the outside......TYs gone).  PC hasn't been reliable enough to show that he can take over for TY, and he may not show that before his contract expires.    

 

So Ballard pulled the trigger and drafted AP to be TYs replacement for another 3 to 4 years.  PC is now a short timer who is going to have to fit in where he can, likely slot because AP is here to man the outside, reflecting the investment.  What happened last year is totally different circumstances.  JMO.

 

 

Are we talking about what game 1 looks like out of circumstances typical of a rookie WR or what the intended plans are for the season?  I don't disagree with how it starts, but that may not reflect the intended plans for the season.  I highly doubt that the intent is for AP to stay behind Dulin as WR#4. 

 

Instead of X and Z, I think what PC will do next year is going to be totally dependent on how AP performs as an outside vertical threat.   Dulin is simply a backup of multiple spots, including outside vertical and shifty slot. I think based upon contracts and expirations, my guess is that the intent is for PC and Dulin to compete for slot and also get worked into the outside occasionally, or more frequently if AP stays limited. 

 

Of course, individual performances and individual game matchups during the season could change how anything looks and what stats are accumulated by each player.  But that's speculation about what could happen, and not an honest look at what I think the intent is.

 

 

If you are highly successful (top 10) at something, and rarely do it, you increase how often you do it. Not saying it's all you do, but you increase frequency until your success rate starts to drop. That's 101 type stuff relevant to any success rate, not just football. 

 

And you want to credit coaching for conditions? lol.... Yes, if you want to credit them for defenses not respecting us deep, and cheating up on us, then sure.... lol... 

 

As far as PC, you seem to want to ignore both Ballard and Reich's clearly stated plan for PC when drafted, which was to move him outside. 

 

 

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

If you are highly successful (top 10) at something, and rarely do it, you increase how often you do it. Not saying it's all you do, but you increase frequency until your success rate starts to drop. That's 101 type stuff relevant to any success rate, not just football. 

 

And you want to credit coaching for conditions? lol.... Yes, if you want to credit them for defenses not respecting us deep, and cheating up on us, then sure.... lol... 

 

As far as PC, you seem to want to ignore both Ballard and Reich's clearly stated plan for PC when drafted, which was to move him outside. 

 

 

Everybody uses stats differently, and your unique way must serve you well.  More advanced methods don't rely upon following/chasing the stats until they start to drop.  Most people and businesses that have access to more hands on info, like football coaches, try to understand what the success rate is based upon then try to replicate that.  That's what creates the high success rate in the first place, a better understanding of situations than the competition.  Creeping up the coverage to invite Pascal, old TY, Doyle, or MAC on a deep route could very well produce an unsuccessful deep attempt, and a successfully cause the O to waste a down.  An addition of a new QB and fresh personnel with speed is likely to change how both sides of the ball look at that situation.

 

MAC, Woods, Ogletree, Granson is a lot of recent investment in slot-ish between the hash personnel.  Possibly using Hines more adds to that.  That's a lot of snaps already being used between the hashes, and what's missing is the shifty guy.   I don't see Ballard using his first pick of the draft to give yet another unshifty guy many snaps between the hashes, and then rely on a perennially injured WR or a special teams backup to get the outside snaps opposite Pitt.  Especially when the draft pick ran nothing but outside routes in college.  That can't be the intent, IMO. 

 

Looking forward to all of the fresh faces on O and how its going to play out.  I agree with the analysis of traits you did.  I think its spot on.  Predictions at this point are pretty futile.

 

 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Everybody uses stats differently, and your unique way must serve you well.  More advanced methods don't rely upon following/chasing the stats until they start to drop.  Most people and businesses that have access to more hands on info, like football coaches, try to understand what the success rate is based upon then try to replicate that.  That's what creates the high success rate in the first place, a better understanding of situations than the competition.  Creeping up the coverage to invite Pascal, old TY, Doyle, or MAC on a deep route could very well produce an unsuccessful deep attempt, and a successfully cause the O to waste a down.  An addition of a new QB and fresh personnel with speed is likely to change how both sides of the ball look at that situation.

lol, my way is not unique. Many have talked about our short possession O and lack of deep game. 

If you want to talk about business, go for it. I've led analytics teams early in my career including the early days of Access and DBing, and have had full orgs of data and analytics teams all through my career. Data has been incredibly important in my career. Pre-covid, I went to plenty conferences and seminars on keeping up almost every year. I'm not a coding or db (although I coded early in HS and early college) guy myself, but have worked in the tech sector my whole life. 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 

MAC, Woods, Ogletree, Granson is a lot of recent investment in slot-ish between the hash personnel.  Possibly using Hines more adds to that.  That's a lot of snaps already being used between the hashes, and what's missing is the shifty guy.   I don't see Ballard using his first pick of the draft to give yet another unshifty guy many snaps between the hashes, and then rely on a perennially injured WR or a special teams backup to get the outside snaps opposite Pitt.  Especially when the draft pick ran nothing but outside routes in college.  That can't be the intent, IMO. 

 

Stop. MAC, Woods, Ogletree, and Granson are TEs. Every team uses TE. And TE has always been more of a slot type position (if your talking purely about horizontal alignment). So that's already baked in. 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 

Looking forward to all of the fresh faces on O and how its going to play out.  I agree with the analysis of traits you did.  I think its spot on.  Predictions at this point are pretty futile.

Predictions are just predictions. Everyone makes them. I have a good track record though. 

[EastStreet]

Hearing chatter that Julio if favoring, and perhaps even soap boxing to get signed with the Colts.

 

Colts really don't need another 6-3 guy, but it is an interesting dilemma if true. He can play anywhere at least in his hey day, and would be better for Reich's O than TY. 

 

And you have to think there might be a lobby from Ryan. Give me both Jones and Hilton on the cheap this year to round out our WR core.... yep, would be nice.  

[holeymoley99]

Wow 72 votes and Im the only one thinking 900-1,000. I honestly expect him to start from day 1 and have some feast and famine games depending on what the D does with Pittman. I expect MPJ at 1,100 or so Pierce 950 then a fall off to Dulin,Campbell and or Patmon Strachan and Harris.

[jonjon]

On 5/12/2022 at 9:34 AM, Fluke_33 said:

I just don't agree.  He is a rookie.  it doesn't mean he sucks if he doesn't start the first game.  Not many WR rookies start their first game.  There are exceptions, of course, but that is not the norm.  

 

If i had to guess i would say the first few game starters will be pittman and campbell.  In 3 wr sets, maybe ty if he is back or dulin.  I don't know.  Someone may shine early.

Most teams have 3 WRs sets as a norm. I don't think Hilton is back and lol @ Dulin starting over him. 

 

[jonjon]

21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Hearing chatter that Julio if favoring, and perhaps even soap boxing to get signed with the Colts.

 

Colts really don't need another 6-3 guy, but it is an interesting dilemma if true. He can play anywhere at least in his hey day, and would be better for Reich's O than TY. 

 

And you have to think there might be a lobby from Ryan. Give me both Jones and Hilton on the cheap this year to round out our WR core.... yep, would be nice.  

Washed up (and/or fragile) WRs are not what we need. Lived that with the  i d iotic Andre Johnson signing. And despite that I doubt he would be cheap. Pass. I would have far more preferred Landry (who the Saints signed for very modest cost).  

[EastStreet]

22 hours ago, jonjon said:

Washed up (and/or fragile) WRs are not what we need. Lived that with the  i d iotic Andre Johnson signing. And despite that I doubt he would be cheap. Pass. I would have far more preferred Landry (who the Saints signed for very modest cost).  

I wouldn't spend much on either one. 

But both would provide great leadership and depth, if you could get one on the cheap. 

And Jones, the last time with Ryan (2 seasons ago) had a great passer rating when targeted. 

 

And I totally agree on Landry. I would have taken him in a heartbeat for 6M. Disappointing that Ballard wasn't sitting at that table given the low and short duration  aspects of that contract. His low salary might signal to TY and Jones that they're not going to get what they are likely looking for. Both are older than JL, and both have missed more games. 

[EastStreet]

 

[richard pallo]

22 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Good for him.  Let’s hope he can do it when the veterans are in camp.

[EastStreet]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Good for him.  Let’s hope he can do it when the veterans are in camp.

 

Yup. I'm happy he looks good (so much better than looking bad, right lol)...

But in the past couple years, we've had Cain and Strachan ball out in camp, and then.... 

I do think AP is different, but I'm not jumping the shark till I see him look great on game day. 

[EastStreet]

Report: T.Y. Hilton remains in contact with Colts, “fruitful” talks with two other teams

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/05/19/report-t-y-hilton-remains-in-contact-with-colts-fruitful-talks-with-two-other-teams/

 

According to most reports, Baltimore is one of the other teams. No idea who the 2nd is.

[EastStreet]

talk about jumping the shark....

 

 

[EastStreet]

ups

 

 

[EastStreet]

Way early... but from what I've read and seen thus far from Session 1 of the OTAs....

 

• Pittman, Campbell, and Strachan getting most of the 1st team reps.
• Pittman missed some time
• Pierce running with the 2s and getting looks at STs gunner. Again, way early, but if they are working him a lot on STs, it's more likely he's in a depth WR spot to start the season. 
• Dulin had the nicest catch of the week (in stride bomb from Ryan)
• Hines caught a lot of balls, but it was during RB focused drills, not really WR drills. Not sure he was really getting true slot looks????
• Heard nothing about Patmon, Coutee, Harris, or the other UDFAs. 
• Granson, who fits into that slot/HB/TE hybrid roll, has only been mentioned a few times that I saw, and both were for drops... 

[EastStreet]

Just saw this.

Dulin giving a free WR camp to kids. Very cool. 

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

Strange timing given OTA schedule. 

This kicks off last day of mandatory camp next week.

I think I saw he got dinged up a bit late last week. Hope he's still able to participate in OTAs and make this camp.

Anyway, good on him. Youth camp plus beach clean up....

 

Quote

 

The visiting guest list of NFL personalities will be highlighted by the latest Bahamian drafted into the league - Michael Strachan of the Indianapolis Colts and Bahamian descendant - Rashad Fenton of the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

Other guests include four time pro bowler and iconic quarterback Michael Vick, All-Pro wide receiver Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins edge rusher Melvin Ingraham, and free agent safety DJ Swearinger.

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

Covered some of this in past weeks and past threads...

 

But Stampede Blue has an article about Ryan being good deep and suggests we'll expand the passing game with him.... 

 

But I'll make the same points I did previously.

1. I truly hope we do expand things. Throw more deep, make Ds defend the entire field, and stop letting Ds cheat up on us.
2. BUT
   • Both Wentz and Rivers were top 10 in the same stat, yet our deep attempts were bottom half of the league. 

 

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2022/6/1/23150075/nfl-next-gen-stats-ranked-new-colts-qb-matt-ryan-as-leagues-2nd-best-deep-passer-of-2021