Reality's 2022 Mock 1.0

[RealityIsLuck]

What's up y'all? It's been a while since I've been on this forum but I can't help but get super excited by the wizardry Ballard just pulled off and the prospects for us to put together a legitimate contender going into next season. Can we take a second to appreciate the fact that Chris essentially upgraded at QB while moving up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and adding a 2 next year?!? Insanity. 

 

We're sitting at around 22mil in cap after the Ryan restructure, leaving us in an interesting position cap-wise. We've probably got enough space to target 1 real blue chip, or a few mid tier players. I'd like to see us consolidate that space and zero in on 1 difference maker in the defensive backfield - weather that's Tyrann Mathieu or Stephon Gilmore. Throw in a vet WR/resigning Chris Reed and we're in a great position to add some young depth to help contribute and run with this team. 

 

Free Agency: 

* Stephon Gilmore 2 years / 26 million, 18.5 guaranteed (backloaded 10/16) 

Really similar structure to the Joe Haden deal signed when he was 30. Gilmore's 31 but in better shape than Haden was when signing. With a higher guaranteed number you're probably able to get creative with structure giving us a bit more room to maneuver this offseason. Gilmore would give us a veteran outside presence who can hang with some of the top wideouts in the AFC. Gilmore has lost a step since his dominant 2020 stretch, but still held opposing QBs to a 58 passer rating with Carolina last season. I think the biggest weakness on our current squad is outside corner -- Gilmore locking up the 1 spot would fill in for the loss of Rhodes while still allowing Facyson to compete for the second boundary spot, this CB class seems a bit top heavy to me outside of the top 4/5 prospects (likely to be off the board at 42) I wouldn't be comfortable leaning on any option as a CB1. 

 

* T.Y. Hilton, 1 year / 5 million 

The WR well dried up pretty quickly in FA. Julio Jones may be worth a swing but he may come at a unreasonable price considering he's 33 coming off 3 injury ridden seasons. While I'm not opposed to looking into a Julio/Landry I'd also probably prefer to bring back T.Y. (veteran leader, great mentor + culture driver) and resign a guy like Chris Reed rather than shelling out for an out of house aging WR. If we're looking into holding off on WR until rd 3/4, I would consider a more impact player at the higher price but I think as of right now it's more than likely we're looking at WR at 42. 

 

* Chris Reed, 1 year / 6.5 million

Chris Reed played great last year. This contract may be a tad rich but it's essentially a shorter version of what Glo got in NY. Reed can offer some continuity inside -- if we bring in a rook it could lead to a healthy interior competition while keeping our OL rotation really deep. 

 

 

 

 

Draft: 

2. Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn Sate 

Probably my top target at 42, Dotson is a crafty route runner with great hands. He's versatile and could easily shift between being a boundary/slot receiver. He's a great chain mover on those 3-5 yard option/quick outs but also possesses that elite deep speed that our O desperately needs. Jahan is the ideal fit next to Pittman and could form an extremely formidable 1/2 punch. Rotate in a healthy Parris Campbell/T.Y./Dulin and you've got an explosive passing O. 

 

3. Darian Kinnard, OT/OG, Kentucky

Kinnard probably projects as a guard, though he played LT his entire Kentucky tenure. He deserves a shot at OT but would dominate on the ground inside. He's powerful and takes good angles bulldozing on the ground. He didn't take many traditional drop back pass sets at KU, and would likely struggle with speed rushers if left on the edge. He's another versatile piece we could add to our young OL core. 

 

4. Isaiah Likely, TE, Costal Carolina 

I love Isaiah Likely - I think it may be a long shot that he's around at this pick but this drafts got really great mid-round options at TE, so this could easily be replaced by a Wydermyer/Calcaterra/Woods/Kolar, etc, etc. Likely is my favourite because of his frame and big play ability - he's got the size to high point balls against smaller safeties and the speed to absolutely destroy LBers in coverage. Likely's also a strong blocker who was utilized frequently as a H back at CC. 

 

5. Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston St. 

McCollum is a late riser after running really well at the combine. At 6'2 with 31.5" arms and 4.3 speed he's got the frame of an elite boundary corner. He's got great ball skills and instincts, but can get caught flatfooted from time to time. He was pretty weak when pressing some sub-tier competition but has the tools to put it together at the next level. Additionally, the scheme fit is a bit strange - he played almost solely man coverage, but I think he'd still be a strong developmental option. 

 

5. Matt Hankins, CB, Iowa

Hankins is almost the polar opposite scheme wise to McCollum. He played almost exclusively cover 3 shell at Iowa. He plays the run tough (could probably convert to safety if his deep speed is an issue) and is another long corner with good ball skills. 

 

6. Zaquandre White, RB, South Carolina

Probably my favourite late round RB this year. 5 star high school recruit who signed to FSU but later transferred after struggling to get on the field. He's a former LB and you can TELL - 6'1/215 with good vision but strong legs. He's explosive for his size but would compliment our current stable of RBs well enough to earn a roster spot.

 

7. Josh Ross, LB, Michigan 

Flier on a locker room leader/captain. Ross was a captain for Michigan both of the last 2 years. He lacks the speed and natural instincts to really thrive as a 4-3 OLB but is a versatile blizer/run defender. Get him in the LB room with Darius and Bobby and lets see if we can hit on another developmental backer. 

 

Roster: 

QB - Matt Ryan / Sam Ehlinger 

RB - Jonathan Taylor / Nyheim Hines / Zaquandre White 

WR - Michael Pittman / Jahan Dotson / Parris Campbell / T.Y. Hilton / Ashton Dulin / Michael Strachan  / Dezmon Patmon 

TE - Mo Ali-Cox / Isaiah Likely / Kylen Granson 

LT - Matt Pryor / Shon Coleman 

LG - Quenten Nelson / Will Fries

C - Ryan Kelly / Danny Pinter 

RG - Chris Reed / Darian Kinnard 

RT - Braden Smith / Jordan Murray 

 

Edge - Kwity Paye / Ben Banogu  

LDT - DeForest Buckner / Chris Williams 

RDT - Grover Stewart / Taylor Stallworth 

Edge - Yannick Ngakoue / Dayo Odeyingbo 

 

WLB - Darius Leonard / EJ Speed 

MLB - Bobby Okereke / Jordan Glasgow 

SLB - Zaire Franklin / Josh Ross / Malik Jefferson 

 

LCB - Stephon Gilmore / Isaiah Rodgers / Matt Hankins

RCB - Brandon Facyson / Zyon McCollum 

SCB - Kenny Moore 

FS - Julian Blackmon / Will Redmond 

SS - Khari Willis / Marvin Tell 

 

11 wins and the AFC-South crown? What say you? 

[Caleb3502]

I just saw a report that the Chiefs were discussing a deal with Gilmore, so it seems like he might be off the board soon. If Gilmore signs elsewhere, I'm starting to think they might bring back Rhodes again for another year and be in a rotation with Rodgers an Facyson.

 

Even with Willis and Blackmon, I have warmed up to the idea of adding Tyrann Mathieu to have a difference maker at each level (Buckner - Leonard - Mathieu). I still think Blackmon has the potential to be a difference maker, but with him coming off the Achilles tear and Willis never playing a full season yet, Mathieu presents himself as an intriguing option.  

 

Out of curiosity, if Dotson is gone by #42, what other prospects are you interested in? Christian Watson and Jalen Tolbert as outside WRs and Skyy Moore and Wan'Dale Robinson as slot receivers interest me.   

 

 

[RealityIsLuck]

21 minutes ago, Caleb3502 said:

I just saw a report that the Chiefs were discussing a deal with Gilmore, so it seems like he might be off the board soon. If Gilmore signs elsewhere, I'm starting to think they might bring back Rhodes again for another year and be in a rotation with Rodgers an Facyson.

 

Even with Willis and Blackmon, I have warmed up to the idea of adding Tyrann Mathieu to have a difference maker at each level (Buckner - Leonard - Mathieu). I still think Blackmon has the potential to be a difference maker, but with him coming off the Achilles tear and Willis never playing a full season yet, Mathieu presents himself as an intriguing option.  

 

Out of curiosity, if Dotson is gone by #42, what other prospects are you interested in? Christian Watson and Jalen Tolbert as outside WRs and Skyy Moore and Wan'Dale Robinson as slot receivers interest me.   

 

 

Yeah, it looks like Gilmores market is heating up... Philly is involved as well. To our defence though, KC is not the bonfaide divisional champ/conference favourite they used to be. Probably boils down to $ where I think we can be a bit more aggressive than KC. Would be a tough sell though. I'd love Mathieu but I am concerned with his cap figure if he's shooting for a deal longer than 2 years. Especially with Blackmon up for an extension in 2 years. 

 

 

I expect Dotson to be gone by 42 so I've really thought about that. I personally would not bulk at Christian Watson / Skyy Moore at 42 (I'd throw Pickens in there as well), but think it would be more likely that we wait it out and see whose available round 3. That would also allow us to maybe target a more traditional OT in rd 2 (Rainmann? Smith? Petite-Friere? Faalele?) I would personally love Wan'dale in our O but understand the concern after he only ran a 4.44 at 5'9. Doesn't feel like a Ballard pick & doubt he makes it to round 3. 

 

In terms of rd 3 WRs I think Calvin Austin could slide in and provide lots of value for us year 1. He'd be my top target if Dotsons gone (OT/CB at 42, Austin in round 3). Maybe Metchie/Bell if they're still around. Any one of the names you mentioned spark specific interest?

 

 

[Caleb3502]

36 minutes ago, RealityIsLuck said:

Yeah, it looks like Gilmores market is heating up... Philly is involved as well. To our defence though, KC is not the bonfaide divisional champ/conference favourite they used to be. Probably boils down to $ where I think we can be a bit more aggressive than KC. Would be a tough sell though. I'd love Mathieu but I am concerned with his cap figure if he's shooting for a deal longer than 2 years. Especially with Blackmon up for an extension in 2 years. 

 

 

I expect Dotson to be gone by 42 so I've really thought about that. I personally would not bulk at Christian Watson / Skyy Moore at 42 (I'd throw Pickens in there as well), but think it would be more likely that we wait it out and see whose available round 3. That would also allow us to maybe target a more traditional OT in rd 2 (Rainmann? Smith? Petite-Friere? Faalele?) I would personally love Wan'dale in our O but understand the concern after he only ran a 4.44 at 5'9. Doesn't feel like a Ballard pick & doubt he makes it to round 3. 

 

In terms of rd 3 WRs I think Calvin Austin could slide in and provide lots of value for us year 1. He'd be my top target if Dotsons gone (OT/CB at 42, Austin in round 3). Maybe Metchie/Bell if they're still around. Any one of the names you mentioned spark specific interest?

 

 

I'd say Robinson and Watson spark the most interest, but just about all the names you mentioned I'd be fine with. Robinson seems like he'd be a fun player to have, especially when the Colts have someone like Jonathan Taylor to set up big plays in play-action. Though, as you mentioned there is some concern with the 40 time, and he had a low RAS of 5.29. Ballard typically drafts WRs with a RAS above 8 (Pittman 8.29, Campbell 9.76, Patmon 8.47, Strachan 9.22). Calvin Austin seems like he could be a good Hilton replacement as well, and meets the RAS standard with 8.99. The more I look at it I think I might actually prefer Austin over Robinson. 

 

Watson seems like he was built in a lab at 6'4", running a 4.36 40 time with a 9.98 RAS. He's become a popular name lately so it's very possible he's also gone by #42; I've seen him linked to the Chiefs and Jaguars. Since it's a deeper WR class, it is probably better to wait until Round 3 to look for a WR. I could see Bell still being there in the 3rd. I feel like someone will probably take Metchie before our pick in the 3rd.   

[RealityIsLuck]

3 hours ago, Caleb3502 said:

I'd say Robinson and Watson spark the most interest, but just about all the names you mentioned I'd be fine with. Robinson seems like he'd be a fun player to have, especially when the Colts have someone like Jonathan Taylor to set up big plays in play-action. Though, as you mentioned there is some concern with the 40 time, and he had a low RAS of 5.29. Ballard typically drafts WRs with a RAS above 8 (Pittman 8.29, Campbell 9.76, Patmon 8.47, Strachan 9.22). Calvin Austin seems like he could be a good Hilton replacement as well, and meets the RAS standard with 8.99. The more I look at it I think I might actually prefer Austin over Robinson. 

 

Watson seems like he was built in a lab at 6'4", running a 4.36 40 time with a 9.98 RAS. He's become a popular name lately so it's very possible he's also gone by #42; I've seen him linked to the Chiefs and Jaguars. Since it's a deeper WR class, it is probably better to wait until Round 3 to look for a WR. I could see Bell still being there in the 3rd. I feel like someone will probably take Metchie before our pick in the 3rd.   

Yeah it's certainly a tough call (Robinson / Austin). Ive been trending towards preferring Austin at 76 to Robinson if it costs us 42. Probably a coin flip to me head to head, the one stat I can't get out of my head for Austin is 21.8 YPC on 8 attempts. He's just straight up lightning in a bottle and would be a true gadget. 

 

It feels like Watson has KC written all over him after the Tyreek trade. With the consistent need of a WR in a lot of these teams picking late 20s its starting to feel less and less likely we're gonna able to snag a top 7/8 WR at 42. Motivating me to continue to pump through some of the 3rd/4th round WRs tape. Justyn Ross & Kyle Phillips sound like decent options if we punt on WR until round 4. Truly so many options for this team, gonna be so exciting to see this O next year.