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Drafting a QB - Not for the faint of heart..........


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The reality is EVERYONE wants the next superstar QB (Unless you already have one)

 

The "hit' ratio for even early drafted QBs is ugly

 

Since 2010 (Not counting 2021 draft) there have been a total of 33 QBs selected in round one since then

 

For argument, I came up with 3 categories

 

1 - WIN - Player has performed at expected levels (or better)

2 - So-So - Middle of the road performance or still TBD

3 - FAIL - Player performance fell far below expectations for a round 1 pick

 

Since 2010 -There have been 33 QBs picked in the first round of the NFL draft

 

I would consider 18 to be "FAILS"  - 55% of all first round QB picks would not be taken today

I would consider 5 to be "So-So" (or TBD) - 15% of all first round QBs MIGHT be taken today

I would consider 6 to be "WINS" - 18% of first round QBs would be considered a "WIN" for the team that took them

 

2010 round 1 QB picks

Sam Bradford - Fail

Tim Tebow - Fail

 

2011 Round 1 QBs

Cam Newton - Really good then really bad - So-So

Christian Ponder - Fail

Blaine Gabbert - Fail

Jake Locker - Fail

 

2012 Round 1 QBs

Andrew Luck - Good Pick/ too short of career - WIN

Robert Griffin - ONE excellent year, / Overall fail

Ryan Tannehil - Decent NFL player, not superstar - WIN

Branden Weeden - Fail

 

2013 Round 1 QBs

No QBs taken

 

2014 Round 1 QBs

Blake Bortles - Fail

Johny Manzel - Fail

Teddy Bridgewater - career journeyman - FAIL

 

2015 Round 1 QBs

J Winston - Backup - Fail

Marcus Mariota - Backup - Fail

 

2016 Round 1 QBs

J Goff - NFL starter (Not worth overall number 1 pick) - So So

Carson Wentz - Starter / back up / Not showing worth number 2 pick - Fail

Paxton Lynch - Fail

 

2017 Round 1 QB

Mitch Trubiski - Fail

Patrick Mahomes - WIN

Dashaun Watson - WIN 

 

2018 Round 1 QB

B Mayfield - Starter - WIN

Sam Darnold - Starter - So So

Josh Rosen - Fail

Josh Allen - WIN

Lamar Jackson - WIN

 

2019 Round 1 QB

Kyler Murray - WIN

Daniel Jones - TBD 

Dwayne Haskins - FAIL

 

2020 Round 1 QB

Joe Burrow - WIN

Tua Tag. - Starter - So So

Justin Herbert - WIN

Jordon Love - TBD 

 

The HARD TRUTH is you cant count on immediately improving a team with a QB from the NFL draft

 

Especially in what is believed to be a VERY weak QB class

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Starting to think Matt Ryan might be the way to go if we are in win now mode.  Will turn 37 during the upcoming season.  Had a good season last year.  Would need to rework his contract.  He’s currently very expensive.  I could see Irsay liking him like he did with Rivers.  Drafting a rookie starter is not what we need now.  Too risky. 

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Yep... drafting a QB is risky and you may fail... multiple times ... before you hit on your guy. Even with that said - it's still the best option. Franchise QBs EXTREMELY rarely hit FA and the trade market(and if they do, it's usually when they are very old and you won't get many years with them). Ask yourself how many franchise QBs there are in the league now? Now go and count how many of them were drafted by their team/acquired on draft night. 

 

Joe Burrow - drafted by his team

Josh Allen - drafted by his team

Justin Herbert - drafted by his team

Aaron Rodgers - drafted by his team

Matthew Stafford - traded at age 33

Dak Prescott - drafted by his team

Patrick Mahomes - drafted by his team

Matt Ryan - drafted by his team

Russell Wilson - drafted by his team

Lamar Jackson - drafted by his team

 

Any other that might be considered franchise QBs? Derek Carr- drafted by his team

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

Yep... drafting a QB is risky and you may fail... multiple times ... before you hit on your guy. Even with that said - it's still the best option. Franchise QBs EXTREMELY rarely hit FA and the trade market(and if they do, it's usually when they are very old and you won't get many years with them). Ask yourself how many franchise QBs there are in the league now? Now go and count how many of them were drafted by their team/acquired on draft night. 

 

Joe Burrow - drafted by his team

Josh Allen - drafted by his team

Justin Herbert - drafted by his team

Aaron Rodgers - drafted by his team

Matthew Stafford - traded at age 33

Dak Prescott - drafted by his team

Patrick Mahomes - drafted by his team

Matt Ryan - drafted by his team

Russell Wilson - drafted by his team

Lamar Jackson - drafted by his team

 

Any other that might be considered franchise QBs? Derek Carr- drafted by his team

You are right, but I think (hope) that we take a flyer on one of the QBs THIS coming year

(Because the math says that you will miss much more often then you hit)

 

Maybe its Zappe in the 4th

 

If Wentz is gone, we will HAVE to bring in a FA for this year (Trubiski, Winston)

If Wentz is still here, I would take a stab at a rookie 

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2 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

You are right, but I think (hope) that we take a flyer on one of the QBs THIS coming year

 

Maybe its Zappe in the 4th

 

If Wentz is gone, we will HAVE to bring in a FA for this year (Trubiski, Winston)

Why Zappe and not one of the top QBs? 

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6 minutes ago, stitches said:

Why Zappe and not one of the top QBs? 

I like the quick release of Zappe and his accuracy. 62 TDs is amazing at any level

 

He doenst have the best long ball to speak of though.... needs some time in the weight room

 

lastly Zappe can be had with out trading up

 

 

This year....

There are 2 (or three ) QBs that will go in round 1

We will have to give up draft capitol next year to get into round 1 this year

 

The WHOLE 2022 QB class is thin IMHO.... I can invision none of the QBs working out (even Zappe)

 

Look how bad 2011 was for QBs

 

NEXT year QB class MIGHT have 4 blue chippers, I want to have every bit of draft capitol possible next year, if we need to go QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I like the quick release of Zappe and his accuracy. 62 TDs is amazing at any level

 

He doenst have the best long ball to speak of though.... needs some time in the weight room

 

lastly Zappe can be had with out trading up

 

 

This year....

There are 2 (or three ) QBs that will go in round 1

We will have to give up draft capitol next year to get into round 1 this year

 

The WHOLE 2022 QB class is thin IMHO.... I can invision none of the QBs working out (even Zappe)

 

Look how bad 2011 was for QBs

 

NEXT year QB class MIGHT have 4 blue chippers, I want to have every bit of draft capitol possible next year, if we need to go QB

 

What would Zappe need to do for you to not go QB next year(if you like one of the blue chippers)? And how likely it is that he does it? Wouldn't that mean you wasted a pick on a QB that is almost certain to not pan out? 

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

What would Zappe need to do for you to not go QB next year(if you like one of the blue chippers)? And how likely it is that he does it? Wouldn't that mean you wasted a pick on a QB that is almost certain to not pan out? 

Ridder or Zappe would be fine, going to have to take a leap of faith regardless.

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12 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I like the quick release of Zappe and his accuracy. 62 TDs is amazing at any level

 

He doenst have the best long ball to speak of though.... needs some time in the weight room

 

lastly Zappe can be had with out trading up

 

 

This year....

There are 2 (or three ) QBs that will go in round 1

We will have to give up draft capitol next year to get into round 1 this year

 

The WHOLE 2022 QB class is thin IMHO.... I can invision none of the QBs working out (even Zappe)

 

Look how bad 2011 was for QBs

 

NEXT year QB class MIGHT have 4 blue chippers, I want to have every bit of draft capitol possible next year, if we need to go QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would stay away from Zappe. He’s this year’s Jake Fromme. He’s going to be overvalued for his ability to be “smart and safe with the board”. His game doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but he also doesn’t have any standout traits. That’s backup QB stuff.

 

Thats pretty much the dichotomy of the Colts fans QB search. We get a QB who too often looks for a play downfield and misses check downs (Brissett and Wentz) or a guy who is sometimes prone to interceptions (Rivers), and the response is that we need a no trait game manager at QB. That’s why there was a love affair with Jake Fromme 2 years ago, Kyle Trask last year, and now Zappe this year. Honorable mention to Anthony Gordon who went undrafted and isn’t in the league currently.

 

Your data is kind of flawed because of how selective it is. You just list QBs who were drafted in the 1st round and failed, while not pointing out all those who succeeded. In the past 15 years there’s only been 4 teams who have won the Super Bowl with a FA QB. Those teams are the Bucs with Brady, Denver with Manning, LA with Stafford, and the Eagles with Foles.

 

Now, but the Patriots’ dominance kind of skews the data, but generally speaking the teams that play in or win the Super Bowl do so with QBs they drafted.

-Patriots with Brady

-Seahawks with Wilson

-Ravens with Flacco

-Packers with Rodgers

-Chiefs with Mahomes

-Steelers with Ben

-Giants with Eli

-Falcons made it to the Bowl w/ Ryan

-Panthers made it to the bowl w/ Cam

-Bengals made it w/ Burrow

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

I would stay away from Zappe. He’s this year’s Jake Fromme. He’s going to be overvalued for his ability to be “smart and safe with the board”. His game doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but he also doesn’t have any standout traits. That’s backup QB stuff.

Maybe..... There are no great QB prospects in this coming draft. They all have holes in their game and a legitimate case could be made against every one.

 

The odds say that he will be a backup in the NFL, or out of football. But....... QB1-QB10 are all in that SAME bucket

 

I personally like Zappe, because he has accuracy, mobility, and a quick release. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

 

 

Your data is kind of flawed because of how selective it is. You just list QBs who were drafted in the 1st round and failed, while not pointing out all those who succeeded. In the past 15 years there’s only been 4 teams who have won the Super Bowl with a FA QB. Those teams are the Bucs with Brady, Denver with Manning, LA with Stafford, and the Eagles with Foles.

Its the data

 

I DID show the ones that succeeded.....  They were titled as WIN

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

 

 

My overall point is this....... getting a QB is tough.

 

An early or first round pick doesn't guarantee success

 

 

I am left with the thought that we may have to go thru a few of the apples on the cart, to find the right one.

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9 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Say it again for everybody in the back.

 

If the owner's demand is that you win playoff games this year, getting a QB in the draft is not the way to go.

 

 

1000% agree

 

There doesnt appear to be a single QB in this years draft that would improve the Colts THIS year

 

If the goal is to win THIS year, you have to stay with your current QB and improve the team around them. OR.... make a trade for one of the top 10 QBs currently

 

The answer ISNT to trade Carson for another mid level QB. (IMHO)

 

I think the Colts will realize that Wentz is the best solution for this year, as the other options arent really options

 

Get some weapons (TE, WR, DE)

 

AND..... take a flyer in a later round on one of the QBs that MIGHT make it for the future

 

If we sucketh, we get some "better" lottery tickets the following year

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Mr.NotSoCreative said:

Ridder or Zappe would be fine, going to have to take a leap of faith regardless.

They are both decent prospects

 

But they arent seeing the field for awhile

 

Ridder seems to have better mobility of the two, but his release is significantly slower

(he gets balls batted back at him)

 

In college, that is painful, in the pro's it will happen much more

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16 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Starting to think Matt Ryan might be the way to go if we are in win now mode.  Will turn 37 during the upcoming season.  Had a good season last year.  Would need to rework his contract.  He’s currently very expensive.  I could see Irsay liking him like he did with Rivers.  Drafting a rookie starter is not what we need now.  Too risky. 

I think Ryan is a definite improvement over Wentz, but the Falcons played the cap game with him, over time,  and his $$$ are brutal

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14 hours ago, stitches said:

What would Zappe need to do for you to not go QB next year(if you like one of the blue chippers)? And how likely it is that he does it? Wouldn't that mean you wasted a pick on a QB that is almost certain to not pan out? 

IMHO Zappe is a low risk option

 

I the season tanks, I would hand the reins to him, to see what we have

 

 

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

My overall point is this....... getting a QB is tough.

 

An early or first round pick doesn't guarantee success

 

 

I am left with the thought that we may have to go thru a few of the apples on the cart, to find the right one.

Just because it’s tough doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. Eventually the Colts will have to draft a QB with the resources they have. We will never be bad enough to be in striking distance for the top tier QBs when they do come out, and trading a boat load of picks to move up for one isn’t necessarily feasible for several reasons.

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10 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Just because it’s tough doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. Eventually the Colts will have to draft a QB with the resources they have. We will never be bad enough to be in striking distance for the top tier QBs when they do come out, and trading a boat load of picks to move up for one isn’t necessarily feasible for several reasons.

I think we DO need to do it

 

And I would take a flyer this year on a rookie, and if that doesnt .... I would try again next year.... 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think we DO need to do it

 

And I would take a flyer this year on a rookie, and if that doesnt .... I would try again next year.... 

 

 

Agreed. You keep swinging. That’s what I would do. We need a 10 year answer, not a 2 year bandaid.

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17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

You are right, but I think (hope) that we take a flyer on one of the QBs THIS coming year

(Because the math says that you will miss much more often then you hit)

 

Maybe its Zappe in the 4th

 

If Wentz is gone, we will HAVE to bring in a FA for this year (Trubiski, Winston)

If Wentz is still here, I would take a stab at a rookie 

 

Why not still get Trubisky for a 2 year deal with Wentz here? Might not be a bad backup plan, IMO. Plus, 1 less draft pick to spend. If Wentz is gone, Trubisky at the very least holds the fort when we draft a QB in a better draft class next year.

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4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Why not still get Trubisky for a 2 year deal with Wentz here? Might not be a bad backup plan, IMO. Plus, 1 less draft pick to spend. If Wentz is gone, Trubisky at the very least holds the fort when we draft a QB in a better draft class next year.

I think Trubiski is an option if Wentz is gone

 

As is Winston

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29 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Why not still get Trubisky for a 2 year deal with Wentz here? Might not be a bad backup plan, IMO. Plus, 1 less draft pick to spend. If Wentz is gone, Trubisky at the very least holds the fort when we draft a QB in a better draft class next year.


Im in favor of Trubisky, but here’s the problem… 

 

The new GM of the NY Giants comes from Buffalo, so the perception out there is the Giants will be very interested in MT this off-season. 
 

Which may make his price as a backup much higher as Jones is their questionable starter.  PFF has already bumped Trubisky’s possible salary by nearly triple and added a year. 
 

Just saying…

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3 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

1000% agree

 

There doesnt appear to be a single QB in this years draft that would improve the Colts THIS year

 

If the goal is to win THIS year, you have to stay with your current QB and improve the team around them. OR.... make a trade for one of the top 10 QBs currently

 

The answer ISNT to trade Carson for another mid level QB. (IMHO)

 

I think the Colts will realize that Wentz is the best solution for this year, as the other options arent really options

 

Get some weapons (TE, WR, DE)

 

AND..... take a flyer in a later round on one of the QBs that MIGHT make it for the future

 

If we sucketh, we get some "better" lottery tickets the following year

 

 

 

1000% agree back at you.

 

And not just because I think you're making sense.  But also because you used one of my favorite renaissance faire words, "sucketh".  <fist bump>

 

I think, when all is measured, balanced, and tested; when we've tried all the options that affect our salary cap, our draft choices, our offensive system, and the rest; the best choice is to run with Wentz one more year, and give him the best chance he can to succeed.  Better options at WR and TE.  Better protection on the OL.  If he flops, he flops.  And we'll be better placed to try something else.

 

And if he doesn't flop?  Then we'll be better placed to deal with other issues coming due in 2023.  Like a deeper dive in getting better tools to run the new defense.

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For me......... in the land of TRUTH (Reality) where we arent getting Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, Murray, Brady, Luck,  Manning or digging up Unitas..... or getting lottery type lucky with a QB from this WEAK QB draft class for THIS year 

 

For me.....Garrapolo is about equal to Wentz..... not worth the difference NOR the cost

 

Option Number 1 - Keep Wentz

Get a viable WR2, WR3, TE, DE

Use a 4th to get a QB "lottery ticket"

See how it goes 

 

Option Number 2 - If Wentz is gone

Get J. Winston - Sign him to a 2 year deal

In a shortened 2021 season, he had 14 TD vs just 2 Interceptions

Get a viable WR2, WR3, TE, DE

Use a 4th to get a QB "lottery ticket" 

See how it goes

 

I dont think Trubiski is at Winstons level

 

Winston has a cannon for an arm, quick release, is mobile, and it looks like he has improved his INT issues

 

We could do MUCH worse

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

Get J. Winston - Sign him to a 2 year deal

In a shortened 2021 season, he had 14 TD vs just 2 Interceptions

Get a viable WR2, WR3, TE, DE

Use a 4th to get a QB "lottery ticket" 

See how it goes

 

I dont think Trubiski is at Winstons level

 

Winston has a cannon for an arm, quick release, is mobile, and it looks like he has improved his INT issues

 

We could do MUCH worse

 

 

 

As an added thought

On a run rate, Winston would have finished with around 30 TDs and 5 INts

 

Those are pro bowl type numbers

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On 2/19/2022 at 9:52 PM, stitches said:

Yep... drafting a QB is risky and you may fail... multiple times ... before you hit on your guy. Even with that said - it's still the best option. Franchise QBs EXTREMELY rarely hit FA and the trade market(and if they do, it's usually when they are very old and you won't get many years with them). Ask yourself how many franchise QBs there are in the league now? Now go and count how many of them were drafted by their team/acquired on draft night. 

 

Joe Burrow - drafted by his team

Josh Allen - drafted by his team

Justin Herbert - drafted by his team

Aaron Rodgers - drafted by his team

Matthew Stafford - traded at age 33

Dak Prescott - drafted by his team

Patrick Mahomes - drafted by his team

Matt Ryan - drafted by his team

Russell Wilson - drafted by his team

Lamar Jackson - drafted by his team

 

Any other that might be considered franchise QBs? Derek Carr- drafted by his team

It just underlines how bad it was for us that Luck retired and explains the mess we are in. 

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On 2/19/2022 at 2:01 PM, MikeCurtis said:

The reality is EVERYONE wants the next superstar QB (Unless you already have one)

 

The "hit' ratio for even early drafted QBs is ugly

 

Since 2010 (Not counting 2021 draft) there have been a total of 33 QBs selected in round one since then

 

For argument, I came up with 3 categories

 

1 - WIN - Player has performed at expected levels (or better)

2 - So-So - Middle of the road performance or still TBD

3 - FAIL - Player performance fell far below expectations for a round 1 pick

 

Since 2010 -There have been 33 QBs picked in the first round of the NFL draft

 

I would consider 18 to be "FAILS"  - 55% of all first round QB picks would not be taken today

I would consider 5 to be "So-So" (or TBD) - 15% of all first round QBs MIGHT be taken today

I would consider 6 to be "WINS" - 18% of first round QBs would be considered a "WIN" for the team that took them

 

2010 round 1 QB picks

Sam Bradford - Fail

Tim Tebow - Fail

 

2011 Round 1 QBs

Cam Newton - Really good then really bad - So-So

Christian Ponder - Fail

Blaine Gabbert - Fail

Jake Locker - Fail

 

2012 Round 1 QBs

Andrew Luck - Good Pick/ too short of career - WIN

Robert Griffin - ONE excellent year, / Overall fail

Ryan Tannehil - Decent NFL player, not superstar - WIN

Branden Weeden - Fail

 

2013 Round 1 QBs

No QBs taken

 

2014 Round 1 QBs

Blake Bortles - Fail

Johny Manzel - Fail

Teddy Bridgewater - career journeyman - FAIL

 

2015 Round 1 QBs

J Winston - Backup - Fail

Marcus Mariota - Backup - Fail

 

2016 Round 1 QBs

J Goff - NFL starter (Not worth overall number 1 pick) - So So

Carson Wentz - Starter / back up / Not showing worth number 2 pick - Fail

Paxton Lynch - Fail

 

2017 Round 1 QB

Mitch Trubiski - Fail

Patrick Mahomes - WIN

Dashaun Watson - WIN 

 

2018 Round 1 QB

B Mayfield - Starter - WIN

Sam Darnold - Starter - So So

Josh Rosen - Fail

Josh Allen - WIN

Lamar Jackson - WIN

 

2019 Round 1 QB

Kyler Murray - WIN

Daniel Jones - TBD 

Dwayne Haskins - FAIL

 

2020 Round 1 QB

Joe Burrow - WIN

Tua Tag. - Starter - So So

Justin Herbert - WIN

Jordon Love - TBD 

 

The HARD TRUTH is you cant count on immediately improving a team with a QB from the NFL draft

 

Especially in what is believed to be a VERY weak QB class

So I didnt agree with all of your ratings but your post did highlight a really interesting trend: the number of quality 1st round qb's since 2017. Since then you've got 8 WIN's out of the 15 selected which is honestly pretty amazing. What has changed with qbs since then(or with the NFL) to cause this upward trend?

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On 2/20/2022 at 12:30 PM, MikeCurtis said:

For me......... in the land of TRUTH (Reality) where we arent getting Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, Murray, Brady, Luck,  Manning or digging up Unitas..... or getting lottery type lucky with a QB from this WEAK QB draft class for THIS year 

 

For me.....Garrapolo is about equal to Wentz..... not worth the difference NOR the cost

 

Option Number 1 - Keep Wentz

Get a viable WR2, WR3, TE, DE

Use a 4th to get a QB "lottery ticket"

See how it goes 

 

Option Number 2 - If Wentz is gone

Get J. Winston - Sign him to a 2 year deal

In a shortened 2021 season, he had 14 TD vs just 2 Interceptions

Get a viable WR2, WR3, TE, DE

Use a 4th to get a QB "lottery ticket" 

See how it goes

 

I dont think Trubiski is at Winstons level

 

Winston has a cannon for an arm, quick release, is mobile, and it looks like he has improved his INT issues

 

We could do MUCH worse

 

 

I can see either option. I always liked Winston. He threw for 4000 yards 4 years in a row, but he wasn't disciplined. Playing under Brees might have helped that, but he's a better short option than Wentz (IMO)

 

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