Nelson & Kelly’s Trade Value

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

A broken bone in his foot.   And a high ankle sprain, the worst sprain you can sustain.   A guy who scores in the 80’s and 90’s is suddenly scoring in the 50’s and 60’s isn’t peaking.   That’s what happens when your old and done.   
 

He should still be in his peak years.   Easily.  Comfortably.   
 

I’m sorry, this is the same part of you that didn’t like the Nelson pick in the first place coming back to life.    That dog won’t hunt. 

Don't laugh.  That's exactly what happened to Greg Oden.  The High School basketball player far and away more dominant than his classmates.  His body broke down at about age 26.  Got "old" very quickly.  Injuries due to the body breaking down by not handling the superior stress placed on it...is not the same thing as a normal body unable to perform because of an unfortunate catastrophic injury.

 

Do you know where Nelson is here?

 

I don't, do you?

[throwing BBZ]

On 1/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, DougDew said:

Just for fun, I've been tossing around a "blow it up" scenario for the offseason.

 

If we could sign Pryor, Reed, and Glow each to $5M per for 3 years?, that would probably be the same or less than Nelson's new contract.  Maybe my numbers are off, but its close to 3 for 1, or am I off here?

 

Kelly's and Fisher's cap hit were 9 and 8 respectively this year.   

 

Would you take Pryor, Reed, and Glow...with Pinter at C, for about 50% of what we were paying Nelson, Fisher and Kelly this year?

 

My just for fun blow it up scenario doesn't look so un-serious anymore.

 

And the NYG need interior oline badly, and have picks 36 (high 2nd) and 67 (high 3rd).

 

Nelson and Kelly to NYG for 2002 2nd, 3rd, and 2023 3rd?

 

 

 How about Q to the Raiders for Carr. 

 Bottom line Leonard was definitely the one to move. So Now it should be Q for the best we can get. I wouldn't miss Kelly either.

 What would Belichek do? 

   He did not pay the man! And a DE at that!

    Richard Seymour spent the first eight seasons of his 12-year NFL career with the Patriots and played an important role in delivering six division titles, four conference crowns and three Super Bowl championships to New England. He was named to five straight Pro Bowls with the Patriots (2002-06) and earned three straight first-team All-Pro honors (2003-05). His five Pro Bowl berths are the most by any Patriots defensive lineman since the 1970 NFL merger. He was also a four-time team co-captain. In 2009, he was voted to the Patriots 50th Anniversary Team and the 2000s All-Decade Team. Seymour has been a multi-time finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Don't laugh.  That's exactly what happened to Greg Oden.  The High School basketball player far and away more dominant than his classmates.  His body broke down at about age 26.  Got "old" very quickly.  Injuries due to the body breaking down by not handling the superior stress placed on it...is not the same thing as a normal body unable to perform because of an unfortunate catastrophic injury.

 

Do you know where Nelson is here?

 

I don't, do you?

First, I don’t even know what your question about “where Nelson is here” even means? 

 

Second, Greg Oden broke down because he was born with an abnormality that wasn’t detected until after he was drafted.   The problem was one leg was shorter than the other.   Wasn’t a big deal in HS, or his year at Ohio State.  But it was on the NBA level.  Most of his many injuries were due to his leg problem. 
 

Nelson suffered the same broken bone in his foot that Carson Wentz did.   Is Wentz old and breaking down now too?    The broken bone was called rare when it happened.   A fluke.  
 

The high ankle sprain happened when two players fell into the back of his leg in a way that had not happened before.   Bad luck.  But that doesn’t mean Nelson is breaking down.  That’s a complete misread.   Ballard said he thought Nelson would get through this off-season with no surgeries.  
 

You’re trying way too hard to connect dots that can’t be connected.  You’re trying to re-visit the decision to draft Nelson 6th overall.   You thought it was wrong then, you think it’s wrong now.   His first three years mean nothing to you.!    That Ballard called him a future Hall of Famer who were going to sign long-term soon means nothing to you. 
 

You’re determined to win this fight and trying way too hard doing it.    Sorry. 

 

[DougDew]

20 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

First, I don’t even know what your question about “where Nelson is here” even means? 

 

Second, Greg Oden broke down because he was born with an abnormality that wasn’t detected until after he was drafted.   The problem was one leg was shorter than the other.   Wasn’t a big deal in HS, or his year at Ohio State.  But it was on the NBA level.  Most of his many injuries were due to his leg problem. 
 

Nelson suffered the same broken bone in his foot that Carson Wentz did.   Is Wentz old and breaking down now too?    The broken bone was called rare when it happened.   A fluke.  
 

The high ankle sprain happened when two players fell into the back of his leg in a way that had not happened before.   Bad luck.  But that doesn’t mean Nelson is breaking down.  That’s a complete misread.   Ballard said he thought Nelson would get through this off-season with no surgeries.  
 

You’re trying way too hard to connect dots that can’t be connected.  You’re trying to re-visit the decision to draft Nelson 6th overall.   You thought it was wrong then, you think it’s wrong now.   His first three years mean nothing to you.!    That Ballard called him a future Hall of Famer who were going to sign long-term soon means nothing to you. 
 

You’re determined to win this fight and trying way too hard doing it.    Sorry. 

 

Who said that Nelson is breaking down?   

 

Is it not possible that the back pain is not the beginning of it?  Who knows, but I'm not going to ignore it and put it into the bucket of a one time fluke injury because I really really want to sign him.

 

Greg Olsen was one example.  There are other examples of athletes who put on weight right after college because their bodies don't mature until later.  They compete better.  Some athletes also mature faster in college, becoming freaks of nature that dominate their not-yet-matured competition.  Its a risk with the draft and the college tape.   It can all even out at about age 25 as the once dominant player isn't as dominant anymore.

 

I have no idea if Nelson can sustain the dominance he had as a very young player.  I'm not going to assume that it just lasts into perpetuity.  The ability to physical dominate is often short lived.

 

Aaron Donald is the one player off the top who appears to have not lost anything over the competition in the last 5 years.

 

BTW, is the once rather dominant Ryan Kelly breaking down, or not quite the same physically relative to his competition? 

[NewColtsFan]

50 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Who said that Nelson is breaking down?   

 

Is it not possible that the back pain is not the beginning of it?  Who knows, but I'm not going to ignore it and put it into the bucket of a one time fluke injury because I really really want to sign him.

 

Greg Olsen was one example.  There are other examples of athletes who put on weight right after college because their bodies don't mature until later.  They compete better.  Some athletes also mature faster in college, becoming freaks of nature that dominate their not-yet-matured competition.  Its a risk with the draft and the college tape.   It can all even out at about age 25 as the once dominant player isn't as dominant anymore.

 

I have no idea if Nelson can sustain the dominance he had as a very young player.  I'm not going to assume that it just lasts into perpetuity.  The ability to physical dominate is often short lived.

 

Aaron Donald is the one player off the top who appears to have not lost anything over the competition in the last 5 years.

 

BTW, is the once rather dominant Ryan Kelly breaking down, or not quite the same physically relative to his competition? 

Kelly hurt his elbow in training camp.  Probably shouldn’t have played as much as he did.    When a guy who consistently grades at a certain level suddenly grades at 12-15 points less, there’s typically a reason.  He was playing hurt. 
 

You’re making very bad arguments that make little to no sense.   As I said before, trying way too hard to win the argument you started in 2028 and have never let go of.   You want too much to be right here.    
 

Let it go.   Ballard is going to sign Nelson to a long-term deal.   You have many more years where you can be convinced you were right, and Ballard was wrong.    And when Nelson gives his speech at the Hall of Fame, you can keep saying…..   what was Ballard thinking?!? 

[DougDew]

59 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Kelly hurt his elbow in training camp.  Probably shouldn’t have played as much as he did.    When a guy who consistently grades at a certain level suddenly grades at 12-15 points less, there’s typically a reason.  He was playing hurt. 
 

You’re making very bad arguments that make little to no sense.   As I said before, trying way too hard to win the argument you started in 2028 and have never let go of.   You want too much to be right here.    
 

Let it go.   Ballard is going to sign Nelson to a long-term deal.   You have many more years where you can be convinced you were right, and Ballard was wrong.    And when Nelson gives his speech at the Hall of Fame, you can keep saying…..   what was Ballard thinking?!? 

You read into stuff sort of in a binary way.  If someone isn't saying the positive then they are saying the exact negative.

 

What some are saying is that Kelly and Nelson performed at a high level in previous years.   And that their performance this year coincided and likely caused by injuries sustained this year.  Therefore, next year if those injuries are healed, we should expect them to perform at the same high level they did before the injuries.

 

What I am saying is that they are not 22 anymore.  Their early years is when we established our judgment of them being good players.  Are they in the same place next year after injury as they were before they got the injury?  I don't know, and neither does anybody else.

 

Kelly's play has been grading lower each year and not necessarily injury related (at least not on the injury report).  Could Nelson be headed the same direction?  I don't know. 

 

They were both pretty dominant athletically coming out of college....earning first round draft picks because of it.

 

If you read closely, I'm not making an argument.  I'm saying that others should be cautious about making their argument that both will return to where they were pre-injury, and be able to dominate the competition like they used to,

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

You read into stuff sort of in a binary way.  If someone isn't saying the positive then they are saying the exact negative.

 

What some are saying is that Kelly and Nelson performed at a high level in previous years.   And that their performance this year coincided and likely caused by injuries sustained this year.  Therefore, next year if those injuries are healed, we should expect them to perform at the same high level they did before the injuries.

 

What I am saying is that they are not 22 anymore.  Their early years is when we established our judgment of them being good players.  Are they in the same place next year after injury as they were before they got the injury?  I don't know, and neither does anybody else.

 

Kelly's play has been grading lower each year and not necessarily injury related (at least not on the injury report).  Could Nelson be headed the same direction?  I don't know. 

 

They were both pretty dominant athletically coming out of college....earning first round draft picks because of it.

 

If you read closely, I'm not making an argument.  I'm saying that others should be cautious about making their argument that both will return to where they were pre-injury, and be able to dominate the competition like they used to,

Im not a big fan of the….  I don’t know and neither does anyone else, logic. 
 

Because the person who should know the most is Chris Ballard.   And you seem to reject whatever he says and does.  He plans on signing Nelson to a long term deal.  So he doesn’t think Nelson is trending downwards for good.   You’re making too many fan-type arguments and not paying attention to the canary in the mine-shaft.   Ballard is good with Nelson, and so should all of us until he demonstrates legit reason for us not too. 
 

Im already on record as saying I think Kelly is likely playing his last year for the Colts as the starting center.  After ‘22, there is little to no financial hit.   At that point, I think Pinter will start.   This year,  we either re-sign Glow, or he leaves and we sign Reed to start at RG.  
 

Otherwise, I think we have far more pressing issues than Nelson and Kelly. 

[DougDew]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Im not a big fan of the….  I don’t know and neither does anyone else, logic. 
 

Because the person who should know the most is Chris Ballard.   And you seem to reject whatever he says and does.  He plans on signing Nelson to a long term deal.  So he doesn’t think Nelson is trending downwards for good.   You’re making too many fan-type arguments and not paying attention to the canary in the mine-shaft.   Ballard is good with Nelson, and so should all of us until he demonstrates legit reason for us not too. 
 

Im already on record as saying I think Kelly is likely playing his last year for the Colts as the starting center.  After ‘22, there is little to no financial hit.   At that point, I think Pinter will start.   This year,  we either re-sign Glow, or he leaves and we sign Reed to start at RG.  
 

Otherwise, I think we have far more pressing issues than Nelson and Kelly. 

In this forum we think as if we are Chris Ballard.  Obviously I don't have the info on the injuries that a real GM has.  From my point of view, I do not have the confidence that Nelson and Kelly are on a positive or even stable trajectory.

 

To say that Ballard is in a position to know better, therefore he does, is to pretty much never be in a position to question any decision he makes simply because he is in a better position than we are.  What fun is that?

 

Keeping what Ballard knows out of this.  Most players who are injured materially go on IR.  When they come off of IR, they tend to play back at their past level, even when its a major repair.  If they've been cleared to play, then they play.

 

This idea that Nelson and Kelly went on IR from injuries, then were cleared to play but that their level of play was still impacted by the injuries that they were cleared to play from, doesn't hold the standard pattern.  Either they are injured, or they are not.

 

Sure, if their replacements stink, they get rushed back to play.  But the fact that Reed and Pinter were grading just as well if not better suggests that there was no reason for Nelson and Kelly to return if they are still feeling the effects of a nagging injury.  I'm not convinced that their inherent level of play hasn't come off their initial high from a few season ago.

 

But yes, there are much more severe issues then those two. 

[husker61]

Equating a player in their 20’s getting hurt with their physical peak age is ridiculous. He more you play, the greater risk of injury, that’s all. When you get into your 30’s, that’s different, you are on the decline physically and injuries and recovery is tougher. Been there!

 

Any athlete can suffer a major injury when they are young and not be the same, it has nothing to do with them peaking physically earlier!

[DougDew]

25 minutes ago, husker61 said:

Equating a player in their 20’s getting hurt with their physical peak age is ridiculous. He more you play, the greater risk of injury, that’s all. When you get into your 30’s, that’s different, you are on the decline physically and injuries and recovery is tougher. Been there!

 

Any athlete can suffer a major injury when they are young and not be the same, it has nothing to do with them peaking physically earlier!

Some players are lean and quick in college.  Then they fill out and aren't as quick anymore.  Nothing to do with conditioning or diet, it has to do with the body maturing.  Especially linemen who are not especially lean or quick to begin with.  Just a little bit of maturing can tip the scales from being elite to being very good.

 

Some young players mature more quickly and pancake the heck out of their unmatured competition.  Then they themselves slow down a bit after a few years.

 

At 30 players are simply getting older and are declining due to that.  That's not the same thing as the effects on a body from being young to being fully matured.

 

Injuries are a separate thing, and we have no idea if Nelson and Kelly's Reed-like grades were due to injuries that they were supposedly healed from.

[Hawkeyecolt]

On 1/15/2022 at 2:25 PM, Indeee said:

I kind of get why the "trade Kelly" thing is getting tossed around but he is a pro bowl center. He's been banged up some, but he is nowhere near terrible, nor should we be looking to trade a pro bowl center. 

 

 

Pro bowls mean little.  Jeff Saturday made his first a year too late and kept making them a year or two too long. Creed Humphrey didn’t make the pro bowl at Center this year but was considered one of the top 2 centers in football this year.  Trading Kelly to clear all that cap space in 2023-2024 would be a good move if the Colts have confidence in Pinter.  If I can trade him along with a couple first to Seattle for Wilson I’m all for it.  If I can get a 3rd for him I’d take it. 

[Aaron86]

On 1/17/2022 at 9:07 AM, MikeCurtis said:

I am fairly confident that they keep both this year

 

As pointed out before, this OL underperformed

 

Everyone dishes on Wentz, but did you see how many hits he took this year from the LT spot? 

Smith and Q got blown up a bit as well

 

Its tough to get your timing down, when someone is in your face

 

This OL was a few notches below where they are capable

 

Can you imagine if the OL played to the previous year standard?

 

Our RB would have gone for 2k yards easy

 

 

We have a few holes......  Fill the holes, make less mistakes, this team is a playoff team

 

Its NOT time to wheel and deal, giving up our future for an aging QB to get a better team for 1 or 2 years........ 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What if we win the super bowl in one of those 2 years? Or better yet what if we go back to back and win?

[ruf]

On 1/12/2022 at 11:39 PM, GoColts8818 said:

For the trade Nelson crowd listen to Chappall’s interview yesterday.  This is a man Irsay trusts enough to tell him what changes are coming off the record so Mike knows stuff.  In the same interview he said “the Colts are going re-sign Nelson, they just are.”  I also direct you back to last season when Ballard said you never regret paying good players regardless of position.  So i fully expect Nelson to get a second contract with the Colts.  What I wouldn’t rule out is them taking a hard look at moving him to LT.  Still their run game is based on running behind Nelson and Kelly.  They really like those two next to each other so I am not sure if they will be willing to give that up.

easy!! move Kelly to LG

[Colts1324]

On 1/21/2022 at 10:37 PM, ruf said:

easy!! move Kelly to LG

We would likely play Pinter at LG if we moved Nelson to LT (which Ballard said isn’t happening)

[ruf]

4 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

We would likely play Pinter at LG if we moved Nelson to LT (which Ballard said isn’t happening)

the post was saying that they liked Q and kelley playing next to each other therefore with Q at LT they could move Kelly to LG and Pinter could play C where he has played well