Nelson & Kelly’s Trade Value

[Colts1324]

*just for fun*
 

I have heard multiple people talk about the decision to extend Nelson could be a lot tougher than we fans think. 

 

Nelson is one of my favorite players. I think we will extend him. However, I am curious what potential return we would get if we did trade him. 
 

Would we get a 1st for Q? A 1st + Multiple picks? How many teams out there wouldn’t be interested at all due to the contract he would demand? 

As for Kelly, he has to demand at least a 2nd round pick right? Arizona gave a 3rd for Rodney Hudson just last year

[NewColtsFan]

20 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

*just for fun*
 

I have heard multiple people talk about the decision to extend Nelson could be a lot tougher than we fans think. 

 

Nelson is one of my favorite players. I think we will extend him. However, I am curious what potential return we would get if we did trade him. 
 

Would we get a 1st for Q? A 1st + Multiple picks? How many teams out there wouldn’t be interested at all due to the contract he would demand? 

As for Kelly, he has to demand at least a 2nd round pick right? Arizona gave a 3rd for Rodney Hudson just last year

I think Kelly gets no more than a 3, posdibly only a 4.

 

I think Nelson gets a 1 — maybe.  There are just not a lot of teams that believe a guard — any guard — are worth a first. 

[DeepseaColt]

Due to Luck leaving the franchise due to the injuries he sustained, essentially due to not having an O-line I think there is 0 chance this regime or Irsay will do anything that could jeopardize the line. Getting rid of or not extending Nelson is not an option. As for Kelly, the value he brings to the team is worth more than what his trade value would be, plus I don't really blame him for not playing well once he came back. He had a lot more on his mind and will come back next season ready. 

[MPStack]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think Kelly gets no more than a 3, posdibly only a 4.

 

I think Nelson gets a 1 — maybe.  There are just not a lot of teams that believe a guard — any guard — are worth a first. 

Or the contract he is going to receive.

 

[DougDew]

10 hours ago, MPStack said:

Or the contract he is going to receive.

 

Just for fun, I've been tossing around a "blow it up" scenario for the offseason.

 

If we could sign Pryor, Reed, and Glow each to $5M per for 3 years?, that would probably be the same or less than Nelson's new contract.  Maybe my numbers are off, but its close to 3 for 1, or am I off here?

 

Kelly's and Fisher's cap hit were 9 and 8 respectively this year.   

 

Would you take Pryor, Reed, and Glow...with Pinter at C, for about 50% of what we were paying Nelson, Fisher and Kelly this year?

 

My just for fun blow it up scenario doesn't look so un-serious anymore.

 

And the NYG need interior oline badly, and have picks 36 (high 2nd) and 67 (high 3rd).

 

Nelson and Kelly to NYG for 2002 2nd, 3rd, and 2023 3rd?

 

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Just for fun, I've been tossing around a "blow it up" scenario for the offseason.

 

If we could sign Pryor, Reed, and Glow each to $5M per for 3 years?, that would probably be the same or less to Nelson's new  contract.  Maybe my numbers are off, but its close to 3 to 1, or am I off here?

 

Kelly's and Fisher's cap hit were 9 and 8 respectively this year.   

 

Would you take Pryor, Reed, and Glow...with Pinter at C, for about 50% of what we were paying Nelson, Fisher and Kelly this year?

 

My just for fun blow it up scenario doesn't look so un-serious anymore.

 

And the NYG need interior oline badly, and have picks 36 (high 2nd) and 67 (high 3rd).

 

Nelson and Kelly to NYG for 2002 2nd, 3rd, and 2023 3rd?

 

Yep, all day. The Colts have shown the ability to play well without Nelson. Kelly is not worth 11M.

 

Although not popular with a lot of fans, I would trade Q, because he’s going to cost to much IMO.

[ColtV]

23 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

*just for fun*
 

I have heard multiple people talk about the decision to extend Nelson could be a lot tougher than we fans think. 

 

Nelson is one of my favorite players. I think we will extend him. However, I am curious what potential return we would get if we did trade him. 
 

Would we get a 1st for Q? A 1st + Multiple picks? How many teams out there wouldn’t be interested at all due to the contract he would demand? 

As for Kelly, he has to demand at least a 2nd round pick right? Arizona gave a 3rd for Rodney Hudson just last year

The question isn't what can you get for both of them but who are you getting for them? IMO you dont do that kind of move unless you are trying to get a qb...and this draft doesnt have a qb you do that for

[husker61]

Let’s break up one of the best o-lines, get the Qb killed, and chase the best rb to a team that has a top o-line. Wow!

[GoColts8818]

I don’t think either is getting traded.  In a lot of ways the Colts view Kelly and Nelson as the heart of their line.  It’s where they like to run behind the majority of the time.  With that said I think both had down years most likely related to injuries they just never fully recovered from.  I could see a small chance of moving Kelly if the cap allowed it because of how well Pinter played.  Then again they might need him as the starting right guard next year.  I think there is a better chance of Irsay selling the team than trading Nelson though.  

[GoColts8818]

For the trade Nelson crowd listen to Chappall’s interview yesterday.  This is a man Irsay trusts enough to tell him what changes are coming off the record so Mike knows stuff.  In the same interview he said “the Colts are going re-sign Nelson, they just are.”  I also direct you back to last season when Ballard said you never regret paying good players regardless of position.  So i fully expect Nelson to get a second contract with the Colts.  What I wouldn’t rule out is them taking a hard look at moving him to LT.  Still their run game is based on running behind Nelson and Kelly.  They really like those two next to each other so I am not sure if they will be willing to give that up.

[stitches]

9 hours ago, DougDew said:

Just for fun, I've been tossing around a "blow it up" scenario for the offseason.

 

If we could sign Pryor, Reed, and Glow each to $5M per for 3 years?, that would probably be the same or less than Nelson's new contract.  Maybe my numbers are off, but its close to 3 for 1, or am I off here?

 

Kelly's and Fisher's cap hit were 9 and 8 respectively this year.   

 

Would you take Pryor, Reed, and Glow...with Pinter at C, for about 50% of what we were paying Nelson, Fisher and Kelly this year?

 

My just for fun blow it up scenario doesn't look so un-serious anymore.

 

And the NYG need interior oline badly, and have picks 36 (high 2nd) and 67 (high 3rd).

 

Nelson and Kelly to NYG for 2002 2nd, 3rd, and 2023 3rd?

 

Don't agree with the value you think we are getting in this scenario, especially for Nelson(and if I'm keeping one, I'm probably keeping Nelson, even though he's a OG who will get paid)... but... I've been entertaining some radical scenarios too. 

 

I think this team has structural problems of having too much resources invested in positions that don't matter as much and if we think this team, because of QB and because of roster construction cannot get it done and is likely to even regress next year... then realigning and reseting those resources might give us a better long-term chance to compete in two ways:

1. convert current value(when it's being wasted on a team that ultimately won't win it) into future value(when the future QB will need support in order to compete)

2. convert low-value positions into potentially high-value positions. 

 

BUT, IMO this is not happening. This might happen if Ballard is gone but there is close to zero chance we do it while Ballard and Reich are leading this team. 

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I think this team has structural problems of having too much resources invested in positions that don't matter as much

Curious as to what positions you think those are. I see too much invested in Edge rusher, which is an important position, but there’s little to show in it. We have invested 4 second round picks and 1 1st in edge rushers and we still can’t rush the passer.

 

We’ve spent a bunch of late round picks in developmental WRs and still don’t have any receiver depth.

 

If anything this tells my rather than trading players, we need to trade picks. We need to take all those extra 5ths and 7ths we always have and package it for higher picks. Let’s see if Morocco Brown gets hired and gets us an extra 3rd, but I want to see us have a 2nd, two 3rds, and two fourths. 5 picks and get 5 guys that can contribute sooner rather than later/never.

[stitches]

Interior OL and DL, LB...

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

Don't agree with the value you think we are getting in this scenario, especially for Nelson(and if I'm keeping one, I'm probably keeping Nelson, even though he's a OG who will get paid)... but... I've been entertaining some radical scenarios too. 

 

I think this team has structural problems of having too much resources invested in positions that don't matter as much and if we think this team, because of QB and because of roster construction cannot get it done and is likely to even regress next year... then realigning and reseting those resources might give us a better long-term chance to compete in two ways:

1. convert current value(when it's being wasted on a team that ultimately won't win it) into future value(when the future QB will need support in order to compete)

2. convert low-value positions into potentially high-value positions. 

 

BUT, IMO this is not happening. This might happen if Ballard is gone but there is close to zero chance we do it while Ballard and Reich are leading this team. 

I agree.  It won't happen.  That's why we call it a radical scenario.  And I'm not sure that trading him would be a good decsion. 

 

I have no idea what an all-pro G after a down year and at the end of his contract fetches in terms of draft pick(s).

 

But the only reason this discussion happens is because the play of the oline did not drop off when he and Kelly were out.  In some cases, it got better.  Three Oline players for the price of one?  Man, something is not right about that.

 

The vigorous Nelson lovers assumed the oline play would take a step back in Nelson's absence.  That nobody could play G as well as him, and that he makes the entire O line better.  Well, Nelson has played every snap since 2019.  For the first time since 2019 he wasn't in a game, and those assumptions were not proven true.

 

What has been proven more true, is when a very good LT is not in the game, the entire oline suffers.  Even the past two seasons when AC was nicked and out of a game, you could see the decline in oline play from when he was in there.  Not the same with Nelson's absences this year.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Curious as to what positions you think those are. I see too much invested in Edge rusher, which is an important position, but there’s little to show in it. We have invested 4 second round picks and 1 1st in edge rushers and we still can’t rush the passer.

 

We’ve spent a bunch of late round picks in developmental WRs and still don’t have any receiver depth.

 

If anything this tells my rather than trading players, we need to trade picks. We need to take all those extra 5ths and 7ths we always have and package it for higher picks. Let’s see if Morocco Brown gets hired and gets us an extra 3rd, but I want to see us have a 2nd, two 3rds, and two fourths. 5 picks and get 5 guys that can contribute sooner rather than later/never.

Not saying that this is the template, but if you look at the way Polian did it. he drafted WILL Lbs to make tackles during their rookie contract, then let them sign for big money elsewhere ,,,Mike Petersen, Cato June.  That's because the WILL in a 43 is asked to be the primary tackler....as Polian explained on his radio show.....and that simply chasing the ball and tackling is what an undersized fast LB can do right out of college.  They are very productive their rookie year, and they don't really get a whole lot better as the years pass.  In fact, Leonard came in and played well as a rookie.  And, he hasn't really done a lot more than his first Maniac year.

 

The WILL is the guy you spend a second round draft pick on and play him for 3/4 years, then churn again.  $60M should go to the EDGES.

 

Same deal with Gs.  Reed and Glow and Pinter are evidence if not proof that you don't need to spend pick 6 and the ensuing $60M on Gs.   

 

But this appears to be Ballard's philosophy.  Lets hope that it works.  Build an O, including getting your straight ahead running Wisconsin RB, from the inside out, as well as the defense.  We'll see if it works and if Ballard has a GM job with the Colts at the middle to end of Nelson's big contract.

 

Agree about trading up, but I think this draft is short in the big play WR and starting LT areas.  Its looking like the value is with the interior players.

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Interior OL and DL, LB...

I can see that. A lot of it is Ballard wanting to re-sign “our” guys. I love Grover but I can see how that’s a position where unless you’ve got Vita Vea, you need to draft another NT. In theory you should just constantly refresh that position, considering the average NT plays 60% of the snaps.

 

Interior OL? I can see it with Glow but Nelson is having a HOF like career. He’s this decades Joe Thomas. Hard to not invest in him.

 

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Not saying that this is the template, but if you look at the way Polian did it. he drafted WILL Lbs to make tackles during their rookie contract, then let them sign for big money elsewhere ,,,Mike Petersen, Cato June.  That's because the WILL in a 43 is asked to be the primary tackler....as Polian explained on his radio show.....and that simply chasing the ball and tackling is what an undersized fast LB can do right out of college.  They are very productive their rookie year, and they don't really get a whole lot better as the years pass.  In fact, Leonard came in and played well as a rookie.  And, he hasn't really done a lot more than his first Maniac year.

Now I would be with you guys on Leonard if it wasn’t for the fact that Leonard is a turnover machine and a locker room leader. He’s arguably the best at his position too.

 

I also wonder sometimes if Okereke was really worth a 3rd round pick.

[husker61]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Interior OL and DL, LB...

games are won and lost in the trenches. I have never heard a coach not say that. But hey, what do they know. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, husker61 said:

games are won and lost in the trenches. I have never heard a coach not say that. But hey, what do they know. 

Yep, the greatest college football team in history was the 1995 Huskers. I will go to my grave and say that, what did they have = the biggest baddest O.line in college history. They had a QB and RB that just ran behind them all day for 5-7 yards a pop. That is all it took. Tommie didn't make mistakes, and not only did their O.Line dominate but their D.Line did too = trenches.

[stitches]

30 minutes ago, husker61 said:

games are won and lost in the trenches. I have never heard a coach not say that. But hey, what do they know. 

Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do. The highest paid positions in the NFL are QB, WR, DE, OT and CB. Just by coincidence those are the positions that bring most value by several analytics models too. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do. The highest paid positions in the NFL are QB, WR, DE, OT and CB. 

Nelson is an outlier, I would give him what he wants. I normally would agree with you but if we let Nelson go they would be a horrendous mistake.

[stitches]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Nelson is an outlier, I would give him what he wants. I normally would agree with you but if we let Nelson go they would be a horrendous mistake.

He's the one I'm most leaning towards keeping. Even at OG he's returning incredible value. I think even by PFF metrics which usually value OTs much higher, he's been the most valuable OL player in the league since entering the league. This includes all OTs, OGs and OCs. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

He's the one I'm most leaning towards keeping. Even at OG he's returning incredible value. I think even by PFF metrics which usually value OTs much higher, he's been the most valuable OL player in the league since entering the league. This includes all OTs, OGs and OCs. 

Yeah he probably is the only OG that I would pay highly because he gives us an attitude and dominates by all metrics. Here is where I 100% agree with you, we need a huge playmaker and I am not sure now Wentz is the answer. I didn't think he was before the season, then I did, and Sunday happened. I was talking huge smack and he made me look a fool. Can't trust him now.

[stitches]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

I agree.  It won't happen.  That's why we call it a radical scenario.  And I'm not sure that trading him would be a good decsion. 

 

I have no idea what an all-pro G after a down year and at the end of his contract fetches in terms of draft pick(s).

 

But the only reason this discussion happens is because the play of the oline did not drop off when he and Kelly were out.  In some cases, it got better.  Three Oline players for the price of one?  Man, something is not right about that.

 

The vigorous Nelson lovers assumed the oline play would take a step back in Nelson's absence.  That nobody could play G as well as him, and that he makes the entire O line better.  Well, Nelson has played every snap since 2019.  For the first time since 2019 he wasn't in a game, and those assumptions were not proven true.

 

What has been proven more true, is when a very good LT is not in the game, the entire oline suffers.  Even the past two seasons when AC was nicked and out of a game, you could see the decline in oline play from when he was in there.  Not the same with Nelson's absences this year.

I don't entirely agree on Nelson. I think he's been off this entire year. I don't know what is up with him, he looks like he's playing through something, he's been on the injury report a lot. There is very little difference between this version of Nelson and Reed, but IMO there is significant difference between Nelson at any other moment of his career prior to this year and Reed. I still think if he gets healthy over the off-season he is still a much better player than the random OGs you can get for 5M. 

 

Is it worth paying 3 times that for him... now that's a conversation worth having, but IMO he's much better and you can feel it in the games when he's healthy and fully engaged. 

[Colts1324]

I think you have to look at it like San Francisco did with Buckner. They did not want to invest 30% if their cap on just the defensive line. They avoided paying $21 million to Buckner + got a low first round pick in return. 
 

Trading Nelson for a mid 1st round pick + avoiding $20 million per year isn’t a terrible idea. I can see the reasoning from both sides. 
Especially, if we are planning on throwing the farm (2 1st round picks + a mid) at a few teams for a QB - like Seattle. 

 

Here is an example: 

 

Terron Armstead, a 1st round pick + LT solidified

 

OR

 

Nelson, no 1st round pick, and no solid option at LT. 

 

Both players will have a similar cap hit (Armstead will get $3-$4 million more IMO). I love Nelson, but I’m taking the first option every day of the week. 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

I don't entirely agree on Nelson. I think he's been off this entire year. I don't know what is up with him, he looks like he's playing through something, he's been on the injury report a lot. There is very little difference between this version of Nelson and Reed, but IMO there is significant difference between Nelson at any other moment of his career prior to this year and Reed. I still think if he gets healthy over the off-season he is still a much better player than the random OGs you can get for 5M. 

 

Is it worth paying 3 times that for him... now that's a conversation worth having, but IMO he's much better and you can feel it in the games when he's healthy and fully engaged. 

I don't disagree.

 

BTW, LT is a trench position. 

 

The oline played very ungreat last year during the games a healthy Nelson was in but AC was out.  The line struggled again this year and the LT play struggled this year.

 

There is this idea that nelson makes his LT better.  Maybe.  There is this idea that Nelson makes the entire oline better.  Maybe, but it seems that a good LT does that more than a healthy Nelson.

[GoColts8818]

Doesn’t look like Nelson is moving to LT.  This came out of the Ballard presser

 

 

also said this about extending him:

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

48 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree.

 

BTW, LT is a trench position. 

 

The oline played very ungreat last year during the games a healthy Nelson was in but AC was out.  The line struggled again this year and the LT play struggled this year.

 

There is this idea that nelson makes his LT better.  Maybe.  There is this idea that Nelson makes the entire oline better.  Maybe, but it seems that a good LT does that more than a healthy Nelson.

Fisher, Nelson, Kelly.   Hurt.   Hurt.   Hurt. 
 

I don’t know why you’re evaluating a line as if they were healthy and this the best we can get from them?   

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Fisher, Nelson, Kelly.   Hurt.   Hurt.   Hurt. 
 

I don’t know why you’re evaluating a line as if they were healthy and this the best we can get from them?   

Pinter, Reed and Glow were grading just fine when they played.  Starter oline level grading.  How much higher grading do oline players need to have?

 

Just really pointing out the facts.  The oline has always played poorly when AC was not playing.  It holds true from last season and this season, and the season where Luck started off slow then rallied, which coincided with ACs absence then reappearance.

 

The idea that Nelson makes the oline better has been theory.  Nelson making his LT better is theory.  It hasn't been supported by the facts over the past three seasons when looking at the grades of the replacements and ACs absences.

[NewColtsFan]

25 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Pinter, Reed and Glow were grading just fine when they played.  Starter oline level grading.  How much higher grading do oline players need to have?

 

Just really pointing out the facts.  The oline has always played poorly when AC was not playing.  It holds true from last season and this season, and the season where Luck started off slow then rallied, which coincided with ACs absence then reappearance.

 

The idea that Nelson makes the oline better has been theory.  Nelson making his LT better is theory.  It hasn't been supported by the facts over the past three seasons when looking at the grades of the replacements and ACs absences.

Sorry.   I wasn’t addressing the Nelson Theory.   Only trying to point out that three key pieces of the OL played at well below typical normal in-season health.  And that impacted the lines performance.   
 

If they return to normal, the 22 OL should be better.  Maybe even much better.  Kelky has an $11 mill dead cap hit.  I don’t see us trading/cutting him.   Not that you said thst, but others here have.   I think Pinter starts at Center in 2023. 

[NorthernColt]

Based on the presser, Nelson is absolutely going no where. So might as well forget about that as a whole. They seem to like Pryor as a stop gap Lt. 

[Indeee]

I kind of get why the "trade Kelly" thing is getting tossed around but he is a pro bowl center. He's been banged up some, but he is nowhere near terrible, nor should we be looking to trade a pro bowl center. 

 

 

[NorthernColt]

17 hours ago, Indeee said:

I kind of get why the "trade Kelly" thing is getting tossed around but he is a pro bowl center. He's been banged up some, but he is nowhere near terrible, nor should we be looking to trade a pro bowl center. 

 

 

Agreed. I don't think he's being run out of town, I think its more so just cap management. Mainly being we just paid Smith, and we're not moving a T. Nelson is up for a big extension and Ballard has stated CLEARLY he's staying and he's not going to tackle. So we'll have upwards of $40m on our oline with no LT of the future. I think thats the main reason the idea is being floated. Especially with how well Pinter has played in spurts.

[BProland85]

On 1/11/2022 at 8:24 PM, NewColtsFan said:

I think Kelly gets no more than a 3, posdibly only a 4.

 

I think Nelson gets a 1 — maybe.  There are just not a lot of teams that believe a guard — any guard — are worth a first. 

Nelson would easily demand at least a 1st. The guy instantly changed Indy’s OL the day he arrived. I’m sure other teams saw that as well. As for Kelly, he would get us probably a 2nd rounder, as he is a pro bowl center in this league. 

[pgt_rob]

Nelson would fetch a 1st round pick for us. Nothing less. Kelly would probably give us a late 3rd rounder at best in my opinion. Not bad. 

[DaColts85]

We need to re-sign a LT or grab someone different in FA. Regardless that will be some money. You need to re-sign Reed or Glow or replace your RG spot. You need to either extend Nelson now or wait until the year is up and re-sign him at the beginning of his FA year. No matter what if you want to keep consistency on the o-line and have a solid one it’s going to cost a lot. Ballard has preached that he cares about the trenches and it only makes sense that he will be willing to do this. My opinion is different from his but I see a lot of the same names being back next year with a big price tag overall. 

[MikeCurtis]

I am fairly confident that they keep both this year

 

As pointed out before, this OL underperformed

 

Everyone dishes on Wentz, but did you see how many hits he took this year from the LT spot? 

Smith and Q got blown up a bit as well

 

Its tough to get your timing down, when someone is in your face

 

This OL was a few notches below where they are capable

 

Can you imagine if the OL played to the previous year standard?

 

Our RB would have gone for 2k yards easy

 

 

We have a few holes......  Fill the holes, make less mistakes, this team is a playoff team

 

Its NOT time to wheel and deal, giving up our future for an aging QB to get a better team for 1 or 2 years........ 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:02 PM, Colts1324 said:

*just for fun*
 

I have heard multiple people talk about the decision to extend Nelson could be a lot tougher than we fans think. 

 

Nelson is one of my favorite players. I think we will extend him. However, I am curious what potential return we would get if we did trade him. 
 

Would we get a 1st for Q? A 1st + Multiple picks? How many teams out there wouldn’t be interested at all due to the contract he would demand? 

As for Kelly, he has to demand at least a 2nd round pick right? Arizona gave a 3rd for Rodney Hudson just last year

 

I don't think Kelly brings back much in return.

Nelson maybe, maybe a mid- to late 1st rounder. The prospect of trading a first round pick, and paying him around $17 million and for a guard won't appeal to too many.

 

Besides, getting rid of proven players for draft picks is very risky when you consider Ballard is the one who's picking. 

[NewColtsFan]

On 1/13/2022 at 5:34 AM, DougDew said:

I agree.  It won't happen.  That's why we call it a radical scenario.  And I'm not sure that trading him would be a good decsion. 

 

I have no idea what an all-pro G after a down year and at the end of his contract fetches in terms of draft pick(s).

 

But the only reason this discussion happens is because the play of the oline did not drop off when he and Kelly were out.  In some cases, it got better.  Three Oline players for the price of one?  Man, something is not right about that.

 

The vigorous Nelson lovers assumed the oline play would take a step back in Nelson's absence.  That nobody could play G as well as him, and that he makes the entire O line better.  Well, Nelson has played every snap since 2019.  For the first time since 2019 he wasn't in a game, and those assumptions were not proven true.

 

What has been proven more true, is when a very good LT is not in the game, the entire oline suffers.  Even the past two seasons when AC was nicked and out of a game, you could see the decline in oline play from when he was in there.  Not the same with Nelson's absences this year.

About Nelson….   The fall off from Nelson to Reed was negligible for one key reason.  He was hurt, not once, but twice.  
 

So when he was playing he was recording grades in the 50’s and 60’s for the first time in his career.   The first three years of his career, Nelson’s grades were in the 80’s and 90’s.   I think the falloff from those grades to Reed, who was mostly in the 60’s,  would’ve been pretty obvious. 

[DougDew]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

About Nelson….   The fall off from Nelson to Reed was negligible for one key reason.  He was hurt, not once, but twice.  
 

So when he was playing he was recording grades in the 50’s and 60’s for the first time in his career.   The first three years of his career, Nelson’s grades were in the 80’s and 90’s.   I think the falloff from those grades to Reed, who was mostly in the 60’s,  would’ve been pretty obvious. 

We don't know that it was due to injuries.  Some guys physically peak at age 24.  Especially when they come out of college so far above the competition.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

We don't know that it was due to injuries.  Some guys physically peak at age 24.  Especially when they come out of college so far above the competition.

A broken bone in his foot.   And a high ankle sprain, the worst sprain you can sustain.   A guy who scores in the 80’s and 90’s is suddenly scoring in the 50’s and 60’s isn’t peaking.   That’s what happens when your old and done.   
 

He should still be in his peak years.   Easily.  Comfortably.   
 

I’m sorry, this is the same part of you that didn’t like the Nelson pick in the first place coming back to life.    That dog won’t hunt.