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If we win out


craigerb
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If we win out (12 – 5), we still need help.

Titans lose 4 games (we win division)
or
two of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 other games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Steelers lose 2 games or Ravens lose 3 games.
3. Chargers lose 2 games or Chiefs lose 2 games.
4. Bengals lose 2 games.

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53 minutes ago, craigerb said:

If we win out (12 – 5), we still need help.

Titans lose 4 games (we win division)
or
two of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 other games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Steelers lose 2 games or Ravens lose 3 games.
3. Chargers lose 2 games or Chiefs lose 2 games.
4. Bengals lose 2 games.

Except you missed the most important part. If we win out we are in because so many of these teams are in same division and play each other. Plus we play raiders and pats. There is no way we miss if we win out. . We won’t win out though.

 

Bills and pats still play twice.

Raiders and Bengals play this weekend.

Steelers and Chargers play this weekend. 
 

So two games this weekend are guaranteed to help if we win.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Except you missed the most important part. If we win out we are in...There is no way we miss if we win out.
 

So two games this weekend are guaranteed to help if we win.

Where exactly did I miss? There are many game results that help but that's my point--we need help, even if we win out.

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4 minutes ago, craigerb said:

Where exactly did I miss? There are many game results that help but that's my point--we need help, even if we win out.

Because so many teams play each other that are ahead  so those  are guaranteed games that help. Won’t matter for colts who wins and loses.  So colts are guaranteed to get help. Does that make sense.  They are guaranteed to make it if they win out. They still control their own destiny. Colts win out they don’t need help because of the schedule of other teams.

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

Because so many teams play each other that are ahead  so those  are guaranteed games that help. Won’t matter for colts who wins and loses.  So colts are guaranteed to get help. Does that make sense.  They are guaranteed to make it if they win out. They still control their own destiny.

It makes sense, but is not true. We are guaranteed to get SOME help, but not guaranteed to get enough.
There are still 7 AFC teams that can finish with a better record/tie-breaker than us, even if we win out. We do NOT control our own destiny.

For instance, the Bengals beating the Raiders doesn't matter if we beat the Raiders and the same for Bills beating NE.
Whoever wins, Steelers/Chargers doesn't guarantee that we pass either of them in the standings.

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10 minutes ago, craigerb said:

It makes sense, but is not true. We are guaranteed to get SOME help, but not guaranteed to get enough.
There are still 7 AFC teams that can finish with a better record/tie-breaker than us, even if we win out. We do NOT control our own destiny.

For instance, the Bengals beating the Raiders doesn't matter if we beat the Raiders and the same for Bills beating NE.
Whoever wins, Steelers/Chargers doesn't guarantee that we pass either of them in the standings.

I think that is being nit picky because we are guaranteed help. We aren’t winning out so it doesn’t matter. Hopefully we can lose no more then 2 and be 10-7 and still be able to make it. Your point was if we win out. If we win out yes we are guaranteed help and will make it. Pretty sure by winning out there is no way to miss.

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4 hours ago, chad72 said:

We won’t win out. I just don’t see us beating all of the Bucs, Cardinals and Patriots.

We can afford to lose to the Bucs and Cards, but beating the Patriots is a must. Nice to see the scheduling bias continues by making us play them after their bye as well as ours... Some advantage... 

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27 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

We can afford to lose to the Bucs and Cards, but beating the Patriots is a must. Nice to see the scheduling bias continues by making us play them after their bye as well as ours... Some advantage... 

If "we play them after their bye as well as ours", where's your alleged "scheduling bias"???

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30 minutes ago, craigerb said:

If "we play them after their bye as well as ours", where's your alleged "scheduling bias"???

It's been a thing for awhile. Essentially, most teams coming off their bye week play an opponent who hasn't had their bye week, so in essence the more "rested" team has the advantage. Example: The Bengals came off their bye week to play a Raiders team who's bye week was a few weeks ago, so technically advantage to Cincy. Since we are playing New England after their bye, that advantage is neutralized, although at least we are also rested. 

 

This topic has been discussed a few times on the board in the past. 

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9 hours ago, RollerColt said:

 Since we are playing New England after their bye, that advantage is neutralized, although at least we are also rested. 

 

This topic has been discussed a few times on the board in the past. 

It may have been discussed in the past, but apparently nothing has been learned. The question remains:

If "we play them after their bye as well as ours", where's your alleged "scheduling bias"???

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9 hours ago, craigerb said:

It may have been discussed in the past, but apparently nothing has been learned. The question remains:

If "we play them after their bye as well as ours", where's your alleged "scheduling bias"???

I think, keyword think, I understand what you're saying. If this were happening every single year it would be biased, is that what you meant? Or is it the fact that since we're both coming off a bye that it's fair? 

 

The last time it happened was 2018 when we played the Jags. Then again in 2015. Then again in 2014 (vs. Patriots). Then again in 2013 vs. the Texans. Then again in 2010 vs. the Texans. 

 

That's quite a few times where we lose a competitive advantage. My point is that we're going to be playing a well-rested Patriots team where Hoodie has two weeks to fully and completely game plan against us. 

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On 11/19/2021 at 6:58 PM, craigerb said:

If we win out (12 – 5), we still need help.

Titans lose 4 games (we win division)
or
two of the following happen (we are a wild-card):
1. Bills lose 2 other games or NE loses 1 other game.
2. Steelers lose 2 games or Ravens lose 3 games.
3. Chargers lose 2 games or Chiefs lose 2 games.
4. Bengals lose 2 games.

 

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