Why did we let Chester Rogers or Justin Houston go? Free Agents the Colts should pick up.

[ProblChld32]

The simple answer is you can’t keep everyone, some players will look for opportunities elsewhere. Either to have the chance to start or they may get offered more money.

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

Let also remember almost this entire forum was wanting Rogers gone his last two years here. And when we let him go was after an injury to end the year and then he went to Miami and then the Titans. 

 

And Houston, it appears that he didn't want to resign anyway based on his comments and his feelings after signing here and having Luck retire, it appeared he wasnt to keen. 

 

Autry, wasn't there something else to his signing? And again lets be real, most people complained when we did sign him back in 2018

[Scott Pennock]

7 hours ago, teganslaw said:

Could say the same for Denico Autry; why the Colts let him go. 

Denico took more money from the Titans.....

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Frenchy789 said:

 

 

Obviously not.. Julio/Green attract DE and either make plays or open up space for lesser talent and TE's. 

 

The point is he's a reliable wide-out that can actually play for more than 3 games before missing 5. 

 

Why did all the players we let leave go to teams that are far more successful than us at the moment? Autry/Rogers to the Titans, Houston to Baltimore, etc. 

 

Are we just OK being a B tier, stumble into the playoffs once every 3 years then lose? I remember the AFC Championship games and how the city felt when our team was on fire. 

 

Now its like "Ballard knows what he's doing" no matter what as we sit here with 3 wins. 

 

There are plenty of things to complain about right now. Chester Rogers isn't one of them. 

 

But feel free to carry on.

[Scott Pennock]

7 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Watching Rogers be a reliable wide-out with the Titans is infuriating. Is it because all of our breakout star rookies are going to need tons of cap money to sign deals? 

 

An alternative to having a sub-par secondary is to have a ballin' offense that wins by 3-4 scores against much weaker opponents. 

 

Why is Trey Burton still a FA? He was great last year and he's a very solid vet we desperately need, especially with how hard the injury bug is, Mo or Doyle goes down and we're screeeewed?

 

We let Sammy Watkins slide, Justin Houston as well. We have all this cash and yet still lack depth. 

 

Do some players not want to come play and live in Indianapolis for more than a few seasons? What the hell is going on?!?

 

Thank goodness people like Nyheim Hines, Jack Doyle and T.Y Hilton exist and a lot of the O-line, spectacular players who also showcase their strong emotional connection to the team. 

Rogers became redundant with Hines and Campbell - though Campbell's been hurt every season.

 

[Four2itus]

Just think of the compensatory options if we'd have kept them another year or two! Seriously.....Ballard overall has done as good in FA as any GM has in Indy in the time he has been here. Not perfect, but made some really good acquisitions. Take some bad with the good. 

 

Houston had moved on in his mind. DA is a solid player who is not the future. Can't pay everybody. 

[IrsaysArmy]

8 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Watching Rogers be a reliable wide-out with the Titans is infuriating. Is it because all of our breakout star rookies are going to need tons of cap money to sign deals? 

 

An alternative to having a sub-par secondary is to have a ballin' offense that wins by 3-4 scores against much weaker opponents. 

 

Why is Trey Burton still a FA? He was great last year and he's a very solid vet we desperately need, especially with how hard the injury bug is, Mo or Doyle goes down and we're screeeewed?

 

We let Sammy Watkins slide, Justin Houston as well. We have all this cash and yet still lack depth. 

 

Do some players not want to come play and live in Indianapolis for more than a few seasons? What the hell is going on?!?

 

Thank goodness people like Nyheim Hines, Jack Doyle and T.Y Hilton exist and a lot of the O-line, spectacular players who also showcase their strong emotional connection to the team. 

 I can’t tell if your messing around. With  all due respect. Your talking about Sammy Watkins, Chester Rogers, and Trey Burton. 

[IrsaysArmy]

6 hours ago, John Waylon said:

Rogers has 14 catches for 186 yards and a TD through 7 games. Sounds like he’s the same player he’s always been, so forgive me if I withhold my fury.  
 

Trey Burton? Wat?

 

Burton had 28 catches for 250 yards and 3 TDs all last season. Through just 7 games this season Mo has 13 catches for 177 yards and 4 TDs. 
 

I dunno where Burton went, I just hope he stays there. 
 

“We let Sammy Watkins slide”? Should have been intentional, but if you wanna press the issue we’ll call it a happy accident and move on. 
 

You can argue on Houston if you want. That’s a real subjective move. We’ve spent lots of our own draft capital at the DE position (even BEFORE we picked two up in rounds 1 and 2 this year) so we had spent enough that we need to start getting returns on some of those. Or at least find out once and for all “we drafted these guys, they’re no good, and now we gotta figure something else out.”

 

Autry… he’s not making a ton playing for the Titans. And he’s still playing well for them, the same way we came to expect of him here so if you really wanna argue one that’s gotta be the one. 

“I don’t know where Burton went, but I hope he stays there”…. 
 

That had me dying. Touché. 

[EastStreet]

• Rogers - he's good depth, nothing more. It would be nice to have a traditional slot guy though right now... 
• Burton - was not good last year. Reich forced way too much his way. Granson isn't moving the needle in the same role though.
• Autry - we low balled him.. He's not making all that much more in TN than he did with us last year. He's been great. Has more pressures than anyone on our DL, including Defo... We could have afforded him, but chose not to.
• Houston - doing well in a time share situation with Oweh. Has as many or more pressures as our DEs, and in less snaps.... 

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Houston apparently did not want to play for the Colts anymore, based on his comments a couple weeks ago. He said in his mind, he was not coming back to the Colts. He also said he wanted to play in a 3-4 defense. So that was done.

 

The Titans offered Autry a bit more money (I think more guaranteed in Year 2?) and he took it. And honestly, while he's playing better than our edge guys right now, he's not lighting the world on fire. The issue is that our young guys aren't playing well, not that we let some star player get away.

 

Autry is top 20 in pressures and has as many as JJ Watt and Nick Bosa, and more than Defo. IIRC his pressure total is pretty close to the combined total for our top 3 DEs.... 

 

He was a one man wrecking crew yesterday vs KC. 2 Sacks, 2 TFLs, 4 QBHs, and knocked Mahomes out of the game.

 

Not really saying he's elite, but he's a distinct level above our DEs right now.

1 hour ago, Scott Pennock said:

Denico took more money from the Titans.....

very little above what we paid him last year. pretty clear we low balled him.

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

There are plenty of things to complain about right now. Chester Rogers isn't one of them. 

 

But feel free to carry on.

 

Yup. I like Chester, but he doesn't make my top 50... lol

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Autry is top 20 in pressures and has as many as JJ Watt and Nick Bosa, and more than Defo. IIRC his pressure total is pretty close to the combined total for our top 3 DEs.... 

 

He was a one man wrecking crew yesterday vs KC. 2 Sacks, 2 TFLs, 4 QBHs, and knocked Mahomes out of the game.

 

Not really saying he's elite, but he's a distinct level above our DEs right now.

 

Pressures are overrated, and KC is a mess. I also don't know that we low balled him. IIRC, the Titans guaranteed more Year 2 money, and that was the difference. I don't know if that's officially confirmed, but it's not like we offered him one year, $5m, trying to compete with their multi year deal. 

 

He's not elite. He's really not a difference maker. Great that he had a good game yesterday. The bigger issue that we haven't adequately replaced him.

[DougDew]

Speaking of KC...

 

For the record, call me the guy who wasn't as impressed with KC and Mahomes when they were the rage.  I'll say it again, the key to the offense was the ability of Mahomes to run around until either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce found a spot on the field to get open...sand lot style.  It's not a rhythm based get into a groove of play calling and execution masterpiece led by genius' Reid or Bienemy.

 

It looks to me like Hill and Kelce have guys on them a lot more this year than they ever have had before.  And the oline did not improve.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Pressures are overrated, and KC is a mess. I also don't know that we low balled him. IIRC, the Titans guaranteed more Year 2 money, and that was the difference. I don't know if that's officially confirmed, but it's not like we offered him one year, $5m, trying to compete with their multi year deal. 

 

He's not elite. He's really not a difference maker. Great that he had a good game yesterday. The bigger issue that we haven't adequately replaced him.

Pressures are overrated? lol... Coaches talk continuously about "pressure", on both sides to the ball. More than sacks. Stats and grading services use pressures just as much as sacks in their grading if not more (both OL and DL). Not sure if serious, but a little surprised to hear this coming from you. Not sure what measurable would be more adequate?

 

So I agree he's not elite like I said.... But what does that say about our entire DL, even Defo, who has less pressures and less sacks than Autry?? Might also say something about our scheme.

 

We don't know what was offered by Indy, but we know TN didn't offer much more than what he got last year, and his TN contract wasn't big by any standard. And only a total of $9M guaranteed.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Pressures are overrated? lol... Coaches talk continuously about "pressure", on both sides to the ball. More than sacks. Stats and grading services use pressures just as much as sacks in their grading if not more (both OL and DL). Not sure if serious, but a little surprised to hear this coming from you. Not sure what measurable would be more adequate?

 

So I agree he's not elite like I said.... But what does that say about our entire DL, even Defo, who has less pressures and less sacks than Autry?? Might also say something about our scheme.

 

We don't know what was offered by Indy, but we know TN didn't offer much more than what he got last year, and his TN contract wasn't big by any standard. And only a total of $9M guaranteed.

 

Pressures are very important. People talking about them this way ^^ is why they're overrated. 

[EastStreet]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Pressures are very important. People talking about them this way ^^ is why they're overrated. 

So what is a better measurement? What is a better comp? You're typically fact and data oriented, yet feel you're pivoting more to the eye test stuff here. But his eye test has been very very good this year too.

 

And he's had 4 games with multiple QB hits, so it's not just KC. Multiple QBHs vs Seattle, Indy, and Buffalo as well. 

 

And hoped you'd answer about what that suggests about our D, including Defo. 

[Shive]

11 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

We can still get some talent in Free Agency. Lets go! 

Who should we bring in and with what money? We have almost no cap room at this point in the season.

 

5 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

He's better than a practice squad scrub we'll be chucking to the wolves in week 12 because everyone is injured. Parris is already injured, T.Y is iffy.

I would take KeKe Coutee or DeMichael Harris over Chester Rogers. I think we'll be fine. WR is one of the deeper positions we have. You should be more concerned about CB or S.

 

5 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

I mean come on the Titans are dominating teams for a reason yet half of this forum seems to think everything is just alllllright. 

They're dominating right now, but it has more to do with the DE sized RB they have and their DL finally balling out. We almost beat them a few weeks ago with Wentz on 2 bum ankles.

  

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Why would you let that walk? And to the Titans? Of 31 potential teams?! 

As a free agent, Autry has free will to sign with whatever team offers him a contract and he accepts. We didn't trade him to the Titans. We made an offer that was apparently slightly under what they offered (in some respect). He made the decision to not sign with us and sign with a division rival. We have no control over that.

 

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

To everyone dunking on Trey Burton, TE's are so valuable these days and we have 2 above-average TE's, last year we had 3. Let's say Mo-Alie Cox gets injured, well then we'll once again be scrambling.

Burton had some good moments, but he's average at best. If he was above average, he would be on a roster right now. We drafted Granson to take his place and it generally just takes a while for TE's to acclimate to the NFL.

 

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Some of y'all seem to have accepted mediocrity, we're not the Lions or the Bears, we have a long history of being considered a upper-tier team and thats slipping away.

Nobody here has accepted mediocrity. You honestly must not read this forum much, because it's full of criticisms of Ballard's personnel decisions and our coaching failures.

 

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

The Colts could end up in Austin or Toronto in the next decade or 2 if we continue to miss the playoffs. 

 

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Does anyone think we could beat KC? Let alone by multiple scores? Look at @Ravens, we gave up 16 points in 2 drives. 

With how we've been playing and how they're playing, I absolutely think we could beat KC. Possibly by a decent margin.

 

Ravens game we lost almost all of our DB's and were playing PS guys. We were also a healthy kicker away from winning that game.

 

4 hours ago, Frenchy789 said:

Where is the alarm?!?

You need to breath and just calm down. We've been playing well and won last night. Why are you alarmed?

[throwing BBZ]

8 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Rogers is no big loss, we have other average receivers. We would be a better team if we kept Autry, mainly because our younger, cheaper defensemen are not playing well. 

 

 Actually, Autry's replacement Lewis, has played well the last 2 games.

He seems healthy now. He is getting solid playing time now and is responding.

 

[Four2itus]

RB runs straight at a LB, and trucks him over. Fan of RB makes observation that RB is awesome. Fan of LB makes the complaint that LB is weak/failure. However, it is also quite likely that because that same LB is not a great point of attack guy, but has excellent lateral movement......had that same RB juked and the LB stopped him solid with his lateral movement, the fan of the RB might complain that the RB "Gets taken down by the first guy", and the fan of the LB makes the observation that he is a stud. 

 

Point? Circumstance. Situation. Nuance....or any other aspect of human movement in competition that can not be quantified by statistics. Hell, even if a player, be it a DT, or WR, RB, or whatever....is playing on the same team that another player at the same position as the year before....and even against the same opponent on the same field.....it's still different. In massive ways. 

 

The Colts have a GM/coach that in the face of rare injury circumstances....have found a way to bring the team back to winning ways. That says that the players they kept, or let go are just small parts of a much bigger thing....and that thing is now winning. That is all that matters. And, it is impossible to compare it to what if with any quantifiable validity. 

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

So what is a better measurement? What is a better comp? You're typically fact and data oriented, yet feel you're pivoting more to the eye test stuff here. But his eye test has been very very good this year too.

 

And he's had 4 games with multiple QB hits, so it's not just KC. Multiple QBHs vs Seattle, Indy, and Buffalo as well. 

 

And hoped you'd answer about what that suggests about our D, including Defo. 

 

I didn't think the question about what it suggests about our defense was worth a response, to be honest. We know Autry isn't as good as Defo, so what are we talking about? We're talking about Landry, Simmons, Adeniyi, Dupree, and Autry. For the Colts front, we're talking about Defo, and that's it.

 

Pressures are relevant, but only a piece of the puzzle. Without full context on pressure stats -- primarily, what was the result of the play? -- we're assuming the pressure was a positive for the defense. That's not always the case, as a pressured QB can still make a positive play for the offense. Pressure is important for a defense, and it's cumulative over the course of a game. But it's not nearly conclusive.

 

So saying Player X has a ton of pressures to demonstrate how good he is has become code for 'he doesn't get a lot of sacks, but I want to give him credit for something.' Autry is on pace for 8.5 sacks, which we could use, but that's not setting the world on fire. It's basically what he did last season, when he was a full time starter for the Colts, and we still didn't have a good pass rush.

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I didn't think the question about what it suggests about our defense was worth a response, to be honest. We know Autry isn't as good as Defo, so what are we talking about? We're talking about Landry, Simmons, Adeniyi, Dupree, and Autry. For the Colts front, we're talking about Defo, and that's it.

 

Pressures are relevant, but only a piece of the puzzle. Without full context on pressure stats -- primarily, what was the result of the play? -- we're assuming the pressure was a positive for the defense. That's not always the case, as a pressured QB can still make a positive play for the offense. Pressure is important for a defense, and it's cumulative over the course of a game. But it's not nearly conclusive.

 

So saying Player X has a ton of pressures to demonstrate how good he is has become code for 'he doesn't get a lot of sacks, but I want to give him credit for something.' Autry is on pace for 8.5 sacks, which we could use, but that's not setting the world on fire. It's basically what he did last season, when he was a full time starter for the Colts, and we still didn't have a good pass rush.

 

I agree with you sentiment and reasoning to an extent, but you're absolutely ignoring the obvious and acting a bit obtuse. While I agree a guy getting pressure does not always end up with a positive impact to the D, a guy or team not getting pressures in the first place, isn't even close to making a positive impact on the D... Autry is at least putting himself into a position to make a positive impact, much more so than our guys. 

 

To use your own words/phrases  like "context" and "assuming the pressures was a positive for the defense", Autry's pressures have absolutely had a positive impact for the D. He's had 3.5 sacks and 7 QB knock downs. Every QB hit has a positive impact for the D. And one of his QBKDs put Mahomes out of the game. Wasn't a sack, but was likely a bigger impact than any of his career sacks. The whole pressures being code for "xxxx" on this particular topic seems more salty than "context" based.

 

And you say the question on what it says about our D wasn't worth a response.... Seemed more like avoidance to me. Our DL has gotten worse. TN's has gotten better. It's that simple. Our DL went from a mediocre 23% (18th) pressure rate in 2020 to 16% this year which is league worst at the moment. TN on the other hand went from second worst at 17% in 2020, to 5th best (28%)... To borrow another word you used, those are "cumulative" stats. And Autry has the most of that 28% pressure rate for TN. To me, that absolutely says something about our team, and our scheme. 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

On 10/25/2021 at 3:20 PM, Superman said:

 

And that reason is obviously Chester Rogers.

no they are better at filling the roster with great talent

[holeymoley99]

Rogers was terrible here and is terrible there, who would he replace on roster ? Dulin ? Think not. Strachan hard no ...Autry 's PFF 2021 is 60.7......um no just no. He is not good enough ..Lewis is 70.4... AQM is 64.0...both players are bad....

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, holeymoley99 said:

Rogers was terrible here and is terrible there, who would he replace on roster ? Dulin ? Think not. Strachan hard no ...Autry 's PFF 2021 is 60.7......um no just no. He is not good enough ..Lewis is 70.4... AQM is 64.0...both players are bad....

 

On Rogers... 

• Roger's was one of Luck's favs and was very productive with a decent QB in 2018.
• Not saying he's great, but your comparing him to guys that aren't slots.... Rogers is a traditional slot.
• Pascal is our slot (65+% of snaps from slot, the other at X), and he's not a traditional slot. He's more in the big slot category.
• Strachan is a pure X.
• Dulin doesn't get many snaps at slot (only 15ish % of his snaps are inside). He's mostly running clear outs and possession type routes. I'd love to see him get more traditional slot snaps and targets though.
• And keep in mind that both Pascal and Chester were on the roster in 2018 (if we're comparing slots), and Rogers clearly had better chemistry with Luck.... Chester also has less drops than Pascal but both their true catch rates are similar. Both are different types of WRs IMO, so the comp is limited. Also to keep in mind is that Pascal gets more cushion on average, but Rogers gets more separation. 

 

On Autry.... If you're basing everything on just PFF, OK.. If not, here's the stat comps for this year below. Pretty clear... Like I've always said, I love PFF, but it's only part of the story.

 

              PFF (sacks)     Pressures    QB Hits    QB Knock Downs

Autry      60.7 (5)               19               11             7 (knocked Mahomes out of the game)

Lewis      70.4 (2)                5                 4              2

AQM       64.0 (4)               9                 6              2

Paye        76.1 (0)                1                 0             0

Turay       55.3 (2)               3                  2            0

Defo        73.8 (3)               11                7            4

 

Things to keep in mind.. Autry is now playing in a 3-4. He played in a 4-3 here but got most of his production while sliding in to the interior. He was doubled in Indy at a rate of 58%, which helped Defo out last year.... So aside from his impact stats being clearly better than all our guys this year, his leaving likely also impacted Defo to the negative... And his addition at TN has opened up things a ton for Landry, who has almost as many pressures now, than he had all of last year.

 

[Superman]

14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree with you sentiment and reasoning to an extent, but you're absolutely ignoring the obvious and acting a bit obtuse. While I agree a guy getting pressure does not always end up with a positive impact to the D, a guy or team not getting pressures in the first place, isn't even close to making a positive impact on the D... Autry is at least putting himself into a position to make a positive impact, much more so than our guys. 

 

To use your own words/phrases  like "context" and "assuming the pressures was a positive for the defense", Autry's pressures have absolutely had a positive impact for the D. He's had 3.5 sacks and 7 QB knock downs. Every QB hit has a positive impact for the D. And one of his QBKDs put Mahomes out of the game. Wasn't a sack, but was likely a bigger impact than any of his career sacks. The whole pressures being code for "xxxx" on this particular topic seems more salty than "context" based.

 

And you say the question on what it says about our D wasn't worth a response.... Seemed more like avoidance to me. Our DL has gotten worse. TN's has gotten better. It's that simple. Our DL went from a mediocre 23% (18th) pressure rate in 2020 to 16% this year which is league worst at the moment. TN on the other hand went from second worst at 17% in 2020, to 5th best (28%)... To borrow another word you used, those are "cumulative" stats. And Autry has the most of that 28% pressure rate for TN. To me, that absolutely says something about our team, and our scheme. 

 

You're turning 'pressures are overrated' into an inquisition, but I'm being obtuse? Stop it.

 

Pressures are overrated. That doesn't mean pressures aren't important, or that a player with a lot of pressures is necessarily overrated. It simply means 'he has a bunch of pressures' is lacking important context.

 

And as I said about the Titans front, they have several good players, and Autry. We have only Defo. Comparing their front to ours, and then invoking Defo vs Autry, is a misrepresentation.

 

Autry is playing well. He's not a game wrecker, but he's still playing better than anyone on our front not named Defo. We didn't low ball him, the Titans offered him more Year 2 money, and he took it and ran, and then started acting like the Colts didn't try to keep him. And the biggest issue in all of this is that guys like Turay, Lewis, Banogu, etc., have not stepped up to fill Autry's very fillable shoes. That was the plan, it has not worked, but that doesn't mean we should have paid Autry whatever he wanted to be a rotational DE who gets 8 sacks a year.

[Fluke_33]

On 10/25/2021 at 11:57 PM, Four2itus said:

RB runs straight at a LB, and trucks him over. Fan of RB makes observation that RB is awesome. Fan of LB makes the complaint that LB is weak/failure.

Who you talkin' bout??

 

 

Couldn't paste the Bosworth run

 

[Zoltan]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

On Rogers... 

• Roger's was one of Luck's favs and was very productive with a decent QB in 2018.
• Not saying he's great, but your comparing him to guys that aren't slots.... Rogers is a traditional slot.
• Pascal is our slot (65+% of snaps from slot, the other at X), and he's not a traditional slot. He's more in the big slot category.
• Strachan is a pure X.
• Dulin doesn't get many snaps at slot (only 15ish % of his snaps are inside). He's mostly running clear outs and possession type routes. I'd love to see him get more traditional slot snaps and targets though.
• And keep in mind that both Pascal and Chester were on the roster in 2018 (if we're comparing slots), and Rogers clearly had better chemistry with Luck.... Chester also has less drops than Pascal but both their true catch rates are similar. Both are different types of WRs IMO, so the comp is limited. Also to keep in mind is that Pascal gets more cushion on average, but Rogers gets more separation. 

 

On Autry.... If you're basing everything on just PFF, OK.. If not, here's the stat comps for this year below. Pretty clear... Like I've always said, I love PFF, but it's only part of the story.

 

              PFF (sacks)     Pressures    QB Hits    QB Knock Downs

Autry      60.7 (5)               19               11             7 (knocked Mahomes out of the game)

Lewis      70.4 (2)                5                 4              2

AQM       64.0 (4)               9                 6              2

Paye        76.1 (0)                1                 0             0

Turay       55.3 (2)               3                  2            0

Defo        73.8 (3)               11                7            4

 

Things to keep in mind.. Autry is now playing in a 3-4. He played in a 4-3 here but got most of his production while sliding in to the interior. He was doubled in Indy at a rate of 58%, which helped Defo out last year.... So aside from his impact stats being clearly better than all our guys this year, his leaving likely also impacted Defo to the negative... And his addition at TN has opened up things a ton for Landry, who has almost as many pressures now, than he had all of last year.

 

 

Basically from what I understand and read on the PFF website the grading system is basically set up on if the player performed as expected, worse than expected or better than expected on each given play (Correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't fully grasp it). So basically when comparing Lewis and Autry's grades they believe that Lewis on a per play level is getting better than expected results when compared to Autry and Autry.

 

This is what I read 

https://www.pff.com/grades

[holeymoley99]

20 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

On Rogers... 

• Roger's was one of Luck's favs and was very productive with a decent QB in 2018.
• Not saying he's great, but your comparing him to guys that aren't slots.... Rogers is a traditional slot.
• Pascal is our slot (65+% of snaps from slot, the other at X), and he's not a traditional slot. He's more in the big slot category.
• Strachan is a pure X.
• Dulin doesn't get many snaps at slot (only 15ish % of his snaps are inside). He's mostly running clear outs and possession type routes. I'd love to see him get more traditional slot snaps and targets though.
• And keep in mind that both Pascal and Chester were on the roster in 2018 (if we're comparing slots), and Rogers clearly had better chemistry with Luck.... Chester also has less drops than Pascal but both their true catch rates are similar. Both are different types of WRs IMO, so the comp is limited. Also to keep in mind is that Pascal gets more cushion on average, but Rogers gets more separation. 

 

On Autry.... If you're basing everything on just PFF, OK.. If not, here's the stat comps for this year below. Pretty clear... Like I've always said, I love PFF, but it's only part of the story.

 

              PFF (sacks)     Pressures    QB Hits    QB Knock Downs

Autry      60.7 (5)               19               11             7 (knocked Mahomes out of the game)

Lewis      70.4 (2)                5                 4              2

AQM       64.0 (4)               9                 6              2

Paye        76.1 (0)                1                 0             0

Turay       55.3 (2)               3                  2            0

Defo        73.8 (3)               11                7            4

 

Things to keep in mind.. Autry is now playing in a 3-4. He played in a 4-3 here but got most of his production while sliding in to the interior. He was doubled in Indy at a rate of 58%, which helped Defo out last year.... So aside from his impact stats being clearly better than all our guys this year, his leaving likely also impacted Defo to the negative... And his addition at TN has opened up things a ton for Landry, who has almost as many pressures now, than he had all of last year.

 

Not comparing Rogers to them, more saying that if we kept him it would occupy a spot that would prevent one of those players from being on the roster.

 

I love PFF as well, not everything like you mentioned but a very good indicator on how a player is performing. Autry runs hot and cold why his rating is so low. When he is cold as we saw here it is frigid.

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

You're turning 'pressures are overrated' into an inquisition, but I'm being obtuse? Stop it.

 

Pressures are overrated. That doesn't mean pressures aren't important, or that a player with a lot of pressures is necessarily overrated. It simply means 'he has a bunch of pressures' is lacking important context.

 

And as I said about the Titans front, they have several good players, and Autry. We have only Defo. Comparing their front to ours, and then invoking Defo vs Autry, is a misrepresentation.

 

Autry is playing well. He's not a game wrecker, but he's still playing better than anyone on our front not named Defo. We didn't low ball him, the Titans offered him more Year 2 money, and he took it and ran, and then started acting like the Colts didn't try to keep him. And the biggest issue in all of this is that guys like Turay, Lewis, Banogu, etc., have not stepped up to fill Autry's very fillable shoes. That was the plan, it has not worked, but that doesn't mean we should have paid Autry whatever he wanted to be a rotational DE who gets 8 sacks a year.

 

Not turning anything into an inquisition. Since the start of this back and forth, you've downplayed Autry's stats at every angle (even though they are very good), downplayed pressures as a primary measurement, etc..

 

His loss has absolutely been a detriment per every stat available so far this season, and his impact to the Titans DL has been absolutely a positive for TN. TN's fans are raving about him. His addition is a big part of almost doubling Landry's production from last year. Their pressure rank has went from bottom of the league to near top... His absence likely has resulted in diminished play from Defo. Those are all huge impacts.

 

I've not invoked Defo vs Autry, only provided stats from both. But actually, if you want to go there, Defo is our 3T. Most of Autry's production last year came from him at 3T as well when he slid to the interior on a part time basis. Now he's playing 3T in a a 3-4 and even more interior snaps, and his stats are easily better than Defo's. 

 

And as I've said... nobody is saying he's elite. And nobody is saying he's a game wrecker (he was last week though)... What I am saying is that he's playing at a much higher level than any DE we have right now, and is producing more positive impact plays than anyone on our DL.

 

And sorry, we can agree to disagree on the low ball aspect. What TN is paying him as a starting DE/DT is paltry. His pay is 30th in the league at DE..... That's low....., and we offered even less.... That's low balling to me. He's clearly playing above pay. And it's not exactly a shock our guys haven't stepped in and filled the void. A rook, a few depth guys from last year, and an injury case. They have been exactly what most expected. AQM and Lewis at least are playing well given their ceilings, but their impact is clearly lower.

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, Zoltan said:

 

Basically from what I understand and read on the PFF website the grading system is basically set up on if the player performed as expected, worse than expected or better than expected on each given play (Correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't fully grasp it). So basically when comparing Lewis and Autry's grades they believe that Lewis on a per play level is getting better than expected results when compared to Autry and Autry.

 

This is what I read 

https://www.pff.com/grades

 

I don't think that's correct. 

Can you provide the specific language from PFF?

 

From what I understand, all players are graded the same. What is expected, is the same. And expected performance from every player is "0". And the grades per play fluctuate from -2.0 to 2.0 in increments of 0.5, so 9 possible grades each play.

[EastStreet]

44 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Not comparing Rogers to them, more saying that if we kept him it would occupy a spot that would prevent one of those players from being on the roster.

 

I love PFF as well, not everything like you mentioned but a very good indicator on how a player is performing. Autry runs hot and cold why his rating is so low. When he is cold as we saw here it is frigid.

 

Our entire DL is pretty frigid this year... and none have really run hot at all....

 

Not saying we should have kept Rogers really. Just saying he isn't bad. And our WR unit structure is overloaded with bigs, which most aren't even used. We're understaffed at slot and Z, and have had to rely on temp ups from PS on at least 3 games to fill the need, while some of our bigs have sat inactive. It would be even more lopsided if Patmon wasn't on IR. And we're using guys that perhaps could run traditional slot type routes in more outside and X type routes. 

 

 

[Zoltan]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

I don't think that's correct. 

Can you provide the specific language from PFF?

 

From what I understand, all players are graded the same. What is expected, is the same. And expected performance from every player is "0". And the grades per play fluctuate from -2.0 to 2.0 in increments of 0.5, so 9 possible grades each play.

 

Yeah, it's the adjustment to the raw grade that's confusing.

 

Quote

THE GRADING SCALE

Each player is given a grade of -2 to +2 in 0.5 increments on a given play with 0 generally being the average or “expected” grade. There are a few exceptions as each position group has different rules, but those are the basics. The zero grade is important as most plays feature many players doing their job at a reasonable, or expected, level, so not every player on every play needs to earn a positive or a negative.  

 

At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation.

 

Each position has its own grading rubric so our analysts know how to put a grade on the various expectations for a quarterback on a 10-yard pass beyond the sticks or what the range of grades might look like for a frontside offensive tackle down blocking on a “power” play. 

 

There is then an adjustment made to the “raw” grades to adjust for what the player is “expected” to earn given his situation on the field. For instance, a player’s grade may be adjusted down slightly if he plays in a situation that is historically more favorable while a player in more unfavorable circumstances may get an adjustment the other way. We collect over 200 fields of data on each play, and that data helps to determine what the baseline, or expectation, is for each player on every play.

 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

 

Yeah, it's the adjustment to the raw grade that's confusing.

 

 

Thanks for providing that. 

Sounds to me like it's and adjust based on situation, given the language "given his situation on the field", so rain for instance, or other extenuating factors that may require adjustment.