2021 Colts at 49ers: Matchup Stats, 49ers PFF, Poll

[shasta519]

42 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I think they are both bad takes.... lol. Not really interesting at all.

Our D stats have been atrocious except for two games. 

Those two games have inflated our ranks big time, and has even given huge boosts to individual PFF grades.

And all you need to do is look at the EPA axis chart he provides... Where are the Dolphins and Texans... ?

Arguably the two worst teams on the charts...

 

All games count of course for our AVGs, and they are what they are, but our D simply doesn't perform well vs good to great teams. Our pass D was top 5 last year to start the year because we played a bunch of bad teams, and ended up in the 20s by end of year once our schedule got harder.....

 

And I don't see Dayo changing the complexion of our DL this year. He may not even end up as DE.. 

 

Amen. Posts like the one Hicks made are so intellectually dishonest. Curious about his thoughts Tuesday morning after the BAL game.

The Colts have feasted on really bad offenses the past two years. As they should. However, we should also be able to acknowledge that…and how it impacts conclusions about the defense.

 

People will say you can make that case for the offense as well…and they are not entirely wrong. However, a good offense is so much more consistent (as we have even seen the past 3 games). 

 

If people think the Colts defense has been adequate…I don’t even know what to say. 
 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think Hicks was just saying if they could get more pressure the secondary wouldn’t have to cover as as long. I think that’s a valid argument.

[cdgacoltsfan]

Only our Colts could have a game scheduled ( along with multiple injuries to key players) in northern California with a " bomb cyclone " zeroing on northern CA. Hard Knocks should be loving this.

[Stephen]

22 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Amen. Posts like the one Hicks made are so intellectually dishonest. Curious about his thoughts Tuesday morning after the BAL game.

The Colts have feasted on really bad offenses the past two years. As they should. However, we should also be able to acknowledge that…and how it impacts conclusions about the defense.

 

People will say you can make that case for the offense as well…and they are not entirely wrong. However, a good offense is so much more consistent (as we have even seen the past 3 games). 

 

If people think the Colts defense has been adequate…I don’t even know what to say. 
 

 

They have kept us in games

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Amen. Posts like the one Hicks made are so intellectually dishonest. Curious about his thoughts Tuesday morning after the BAL game.

The Colts have feasted on really bad offenses the past two years. As they should. However, we should also be able to acknowledge that…and how it impacts conclusions about the defense.

 

People will say you can make that case for the offense as well…and they are not entirely wrong. However, a good offense is so much more consistent (as we have even seen the past 3 games). 

 

If people think the Colts defense has been adequate…I don’t even know what to say. 

 

1000%.....

 

And the thing is, and what most should realize, is that our D won't perform well in the playoffs. We'll be heavily reliant on splash plays/turnovers. Our bend don't break D, breaks a lot. Last year Rivers played his * off vs Buffalo, and our D simply gave it away. Not saying we can't beat Buffalo this year, or can't win a playoff, but we simply can't rely on our D. 

[Colt Overseas]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

The graph more or less shows Wentz is about average on big time throws, and elite at not throwing turnover worthy balls.

Jimmy is seen as not making big time throws, and is one of the worst at throwing turning over worthy balls.

 

Throwing big time balls does not equate to risk.

Yeah that was my understanding too. Overall my point was more that Wentz holds an advantage over Garropolo in being able to make big time plays. But that advantage will be reduced as it’s harder to make big time plays downfield in wet stormy weather.

 

Offensively for the 49ers, I don’t think the weather will change hugely in what they want to do. We know they’ll bring that creative running game. But also with their WRs, Samuel and Aiyuk, theyre more YAC guys and they’ll try to get the ball into their hands quick. I think Rock is a bit of a loss actually this weekend, we will need young Rogers to make his tackles.

 

I think defensively we can cause them trouble with our running game and Nelson returning, and they down their two 3-techs.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

Yeah that was my understanding too. Overall my point was more that Wentz holds an advantage over Garropolo in being able to make big time plays. But that advantage will be reduced as it’s harder to make big time plays downfield in wet stormy weather.

 

Offensively for the 49ers, I don’t think the weather will change hugely in what they want to do. We know they’ll bring that creative running game. But also with their WRs, Samuel and Aiyuk, theyre more YAC guys and they’ll try to get the ball into their hands quick. I think Rock is a bit of a loss actually this weekend, we will need young Rogers to make his tackles.

 

I think defensively we can cause them trouble with our running game and Nelson returning, and they down their two 3-techs.

 

I think the weather will negatively impact our pass game, but weather negatively impacts everyone's pass game. What won't be impacted though is SF's high turnover worthy throws when they do have to pass. And Reich's O is pretty conservative in it's natural state, so I just don't see a huge impact. We spent most of 2019 playing bully bull, and that's what I'd expect this weekend, with an occasion short to intermediate pass when needed.

 

I think the weather actually helps us defensively big time though. Our weakness on D is our soft zone / pass D. We're pretty decent vs the run (when we want to be). The weather will allow us to focus more on defending the run. Jimmy would have likely had a decent game vs our zone with dinking and dunking. Not sure he can do that now.

 

Overall, just depends on how the weather shapes up. Wind is just important if not more important than the rain. Too early IMO to assume a lot, but I think the forecast will be a lot more reliable tomorrow into the evening.

[shasta519]

Surprised no one has really mentioned the coaching matchup. Shanahan is a great offensive coach. I would give them a solid advantage there against the Colts defense.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Surprised no one has really mentioned the coaching matchup. Shanahan is a great offensive coach. I would give them a solid advantage there against the Colts defense.

 

Just not sure it will be much of a factor with the weather. 

If no weather, then I'd say huge advantage. 

Might end up seeing a bunch of RTDB vs a bunch of RTDB..... 

QB mobility might be a factor too.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

38 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Surprised no one has really mentioned the coaching matchup. Shanahan is a great offensive coach. I would give them a solid advantage there against the Colts defense.

He has been taking all kinds of flack this year. Fans are not happy. Outside  that SB appearance he has not had a good record.

[EastStreet]

20 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

He has been taking all kinds of flack this year. Fans are not happy. Outside  that SB appearance he has not had a good record.

He's a very meh QB.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

He's a very meh QB.

Talking about Shanahan. Fans want him gone.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Talking about Shanahan. Fans want him gone.

His very meh QB is the reason they are unhappy with Shanahan.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

His very meh QB is the reason they are unhappy with Shanahan.

Nope. Fans are talking about his record and how him and Lynch record outside the SB is bad. It’s more then just wanting Lance to play.  I could take all the SF tweets and replace the names with Reich and Ballard because colt fans have been saying the exact things about them. It’s crazy the similarity in fans reactions. I have seen them saying Kyle doesn’t have the feel for the game. Some of the exact same stuff we see about Reich. They are killing him on his play calling, 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

His very meh QB is the reason they are unhappy with Shanahan.

Read this thread. He starts with the QB situation but a lot of other stuff in his thread here.

 

 

[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Nope. Fans are talking about his record and how him and Lynch record outside the SB is bad. It’s more then just wanting Lance to play.  I could take all the SF tweets and replace the names with Reich and Ballard because colt fans have been saying the exact things about them. It’s crazy the similarity in fans reactions. I have seen them saying Kyle doesn’t have the feel for the game. Some of the exact same stuff we see about Reich. They are killing him on his play calling, 

 

I'd recommend that both you, and some SF fans, know a little history... 

 

SF Offensive Rank

2015 - 31st (5-11 with a 2-6 Kaepernick)

2016 - 31st (2-14 with a 1-11 Kaepernick)

Shanahan arrives

2017 - 12th (6-10 with an 0-6 Hoyer then a 5-0 newb Jimmy G)

2018 - 16th (4-12 after Jimmy G tore his ACL in week 3ish)

2019 - 4th and SB runner up (13-3 with a very meh Jimmy G)

2020 - 15th (6-10 with JG injured twice and only playing 6 games including the 2 he was injured in)... 

 

Other info...

• Shanahan had the #7 and #2 ranked offenses while he was OC in ATL, improving them tremendously. 
• Jimmy G is a very meh QB. Decent quick/short thrower, but has always had deep accuracy and turnover issues.

In short, Shanahan is a very good play caller and offensive strategist. He's done very well with good QBs, and even very well with a very meh Jimmy G at 13-3.

 

SF wins that SB if it wasn't for Jimmy G's 2 INTs and late game failures. Shanahan also wins the SB in ATL if ATL's D didn't collapse. His D in SF also allowed 21 points in the final 5 minutes to KC lol.. 

 

And that's nothing like Reich lol.

45 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Read this thread. He starts with the QB situation but a lot of other stuff in his thread here.

 

 

It's 99% about the QB in SF.

[EastStreet]

[Nickster]

On 10/21/2021 at 8:43 PM, EastStreet said:

I've done a lot of friendly bets over the years on the Colts. I try not to bet $, but was a bit of gambler in the 90s. I have family that are Bears fans, and normally do a St Elmos or Iaria's bet, but it's been a while. I've also done some bets with my friends in TX (Cowboys fans, not Texans), and some in FL, GA, CA. Always better to share a good dinner and drinks whatever the outcome, then just exchange $ (with friends).

And you can also just do the panicked eyes patting all pockets twice, each side of your chest even without breast pockets, lost my wallet thing too. 

[Nickster]

On 10/21/2021 at 9:16 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I haven't been to BW3's in a long time either. I used to go a lot to watch Colts games with 2 or 3 friends and we would load up and order like 100 Wings - Half Hot Barbecue and Caribbean Jerk and we would drink probably like 7 or 8 beers  . I was young then though. I am talking 2003ish-2012ish. I haven't even been to a game since 2013. Let me tell you something that Caribbean sauce is spicy as hell. It is different but I like it.

Spicy garlic is one of gods gifts.  With blue cheese.

 

can only afford them on Tuesdays.

[Nickster]

The turf has been historically awful there.  Don’t know if that’s fixed.

 

if it was just heavy rain and bad footing, that’s usually advantage passing game because defenders have to react.  They keep the balls fairly dry and today’s catching gloves are like electromagnets and QBs can wear gloves too.  Smaller handed QBs could have extra issues with grip though.

 

in heavy mud, the Run game is just a wallow fest.  Taylor’s style might help because he isnt dramatic with his cuts, but I could also see him being ineffective running laterally, he’s not great stopping and starting.  However, the home run ball is always a possibility with him especially when one cut could put the defender on skates.

 

45 mph winds essentially nullifies any passing game but the short game.  Again if you can get Taylor in space we could be money here but Fred is one of the best in coverage too. 
 

the mud games usually come down to ball security and seemingly chance breaks Though.  I’d like to say I’m looking forward to it but I’m really not.  These games tend to be boring, limiting  these great athletes.  Makes em move around like a buncha old men.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Last night I was listening to a podcast. Apparently when Fisher was with KC they played SF. Bosa had like 13 hurries against Fisher. They said Bosa doesn’t seem to be fully back yet from the ACL injury. Weather could slow down the pass rush some.

 

Also SF leads the league in pass interference penalties.

 

I think weather will nullify any advantage either team has.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 hours ago, Nickster said:

The turf has been historically awful there.  Don’t know if that’s fixed.

 

if it was just heavy rain and bad footing, that’s usually advantage passing game because defenders have to react.  They keep the balls fairly dry and today’s catching gloves are like electromagnets and QBs can wear gloves too.  Smaller handed QBs could have extra issues with grip though.

 

in heavy mud, the Run game is just a wallow fest.  Taylor’s style might help because he isnt dramatic with his cuts, but I could also see him being ineffective running laterally, he’s not great stopping and starting.  However, the home run ball is always a possibility with him especially when one cut could put the defender on skates.

 

45 mph winds essentially nullifies any passing game but the short game.  Again if you can get Taylor in space we could be money here but Fred is one of the best in coverage too. 
 

the mud games usually come down to ball security and seemingly chance breaks Though.  I’d like to say I’m looking forward to it but I’m really not.  These games tend to be boring, limiting  these great athletes.  Makes em move around like a buncha old men.

I hate these kind of games. I want every game to be perfect conditions. 

[EastStreet]

4 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Last night I was listening to a podcast. Apparently when Fisher was with KC they played SF. Bosa had like 13 hurries against Fisher. They said Bosa doesn’t seem to be fully back yet from the ACL injury. Weather could slow down the pass rush some.

 

Also SF leads the league in pass interference penalties.

 

I think weather will nullify any advantage either team has.

 

Fisher may be loving the forecast.

[EastStreet]

Talked to some friends out in Cali. All the local weather folks are saying the rain is coming in shortly, and will stay, but the wind will dissipate late tomorrow afternoon. 

 

So wet, but no gale...  only about 5-15mph during the game.

 

[Nickster]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Talked to some friends out in Cali. All the local weather folks are saying the rain is coming in shortly, and will stay, but the wind will dissipate late tomorrow afternoon. 

 

So wet, but no gale...  only about 5-15mph during the game.

 

What’s up with the avatar Beavis?  Felt the need for a change?

 

Wet and lower wind could be advantage passing game.  Mud games often turn into a mud battle royale wrestling match rather than a football game.

[EastStreet]

35 minutes ago, Nickster said:

What’s up with the avatar Beavis?  Felt the need for a change?

 

Wet and lower wind could be advantage passing game.  Mud games often turn into a mud battle royale wrestling match rather than a football game.

A buddy asked me to do some graphic mods on a few cartoons yesterday, so I was goofing around. 

 

did a @2006Coltsbestever themed one too lol