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2021 Colts at 49ers: Matchup Stats, 49ers PFF, Poll


EastStreet
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2021 Colts at 49ers: Matchup Stats, 49ers PFF, Poll  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the outcome be?

    • Colts by 21 or more
      0
    • Colts by 14-20
    • Colts by 7-13
    • ND by 1-6
    • 49ers by 1-6
    • 49ers by 7-13
    • 49ers by 14-20
      0
    • 49ers by 21 or more
      0
  2. 2. Who will have more rushing yards?

  3. 3. Who will have the most passing yars?

  4. 4. Who will have the most sacks?

  5. 5. Who will get sacked more?

  6. 6. Is this a must win game? ESPN has the Colts as 36% chance to make the playoffs. 2-5 teams historically have a 3% chance.


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  • Poll closed on 10/24/2021 at 11:00 PM

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Quick Hits/TLDR

  • Might be the best OL we've faced so far (credited with only 2 sacks)
  • Might be the best DE we've faced (Bosa) so far (vs Fisher)...
  • Definitely the best pass D we've faced (YPG and YPA)
  • 49ers are significantly better in 6 keys stat areas, Indy only better in 1
  • Deebo is killing it this year (100+ per game)
  • Not the best sack total, but very strong DL
  • Don't let Warner's low grade or skinny ankles fool you.
  • Current Vegas Lines has the Colts as 3.5-4.5 dogs 
  • ESPN currently gives the Colts a 34.4% chance of winning
  • ESPN currently has the Colts at 36.2% to make the playoffs
  • 49ers are off a bye. Rested, and had plenty of time watch film and find holes to pick on.
  • Buchner needs to have grudge type of game..... 

 

Prediction

  • Guessing it will mostly be about which running game is better, although turnovers could always factor either way....
  • My heart says Colts 23 - 49ers 20
  • My brain says 49ers 27 - Colts 23
  • I'm going with my heart, and Wentz this week.

 

 

  • Areas where the Colts are significantly better (10 spots better)
    • Defensive RZ%
  • Areas where the 49ers are significantly better (10 spots better)
    • Offensive RZ%
    • 3rd Down Defense
    • Total YPG Defense
    • Passing YPG Defense
    • Passing YPA Defense
    • Strength of Schedule

 

 

SoS so far

  • Colts - 22nd
  • 49ers - 9th

 

 

  • Offense (Colts/49ers)
    • Power Index: 13th / 16th
    • PPG: 19th (23.2) / 17th (23.4)
    • RZ%: 31st (43%) / 2nd (91%)
    • 3D%: 22nd (38%) / 25th (36%)
    • TotalYPG: 15th / 14th
    • RushYPG: 11th / 12th
    • RushYPA: 8th / 14th 
    • PassYPG: 16th / 14th
    • PassYPA: 9th / 13th
    • Sacked%: 19th / 13th
  • Defense (Colts/49ers)
    • Power Index: 15th / 12th
    • PPGA: 11th (21.8) / 15th 23.8
    • RZ%A: 18th (65%) / 28th (76%)
    • 3D%A: 20th (42%) / 4th (33%)
    • TotalYPGA: 20th / 6th
    • RushYPGA: 14th / 18th
    • RushYPAA: 11th / 16th
    • PassYPGA: 20th / 7th
    • PassYPAA: 28th / 9th
    • Sack%: 17th / 15th

 

PFF Grades

 

  • QB
    • Q-Garoppolo - 60.8 (2 INTs)
    • Q-Lance - 59.0 (1 INT)
  • RB
    • Mitchell - 64.7 (4.2 YPC)
    • Q-Hasty -  60.7 (6.8 YPC)
    • Sermon - 65.3 (4.4 YPC)
  • FB
    • Juszczyk - 62.4
  • WR
    • Samuel - 81.8 (110 YPG)
    • Aiyuk - 59.0
    • Sanu - 61.6
    • Sherfield - 55.6
    • Benjamin - 47.2
    • Jennings - 74.3
  • TE
    • Dwelley - 58.2
    • Woerner - 55.3
  • OL - arguably the best OL we've seen this year, and we've played LAR.....  only 2 sacks credited to their starting 5
    • Q-Williams (LT) - 93.4 0 sacks
    • Tomlinson (LG) - 75.8 0 sacks
    • Mack (C) - 62.8 1 sack
    • Brunskill (RG) - 65.2 0 sacks
    • McGlinchey (RT) - 67.8  1 sack
  • LDE
    • Armstead - 89.4 1 sack
    • Ford - 54.9 3 sacks
  • LDT
    • Q-Kinlaw - 50.5 1 sack
    • Street - 49.9 1 sack
  • RDT
    • Jones - 73.4 1 sack
    • Kerr - 57.0 0 sacks
  • RDE
    • Bosa - 89.2 5 sacks
    • Ebukam - 55.0
  • SAM
    • Al-Shaair - 55.7
  • MIKE
    • Warner - 59.4 (don't be fooled by this low number)
  • WILL
    • Q - Harris - 63.7
    • Flannigan-Fowles - 51.5
  • LCB
    • Moseley - 68.2
    • Jonshon - 71.3
  • RCB
    • Norman - 47.9
    • Kirkpatrick - 60.9
  • NB
    • Q-Williams - 53.2
  • FS
    • Ward - 69.1
  • SS 
    • Tartt - 66.6
    • Tavon Wilson (x-Colt) - 64.9
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14 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

Easy to forget that the 49ers have alot of very good players, particulary along the fronts. Rain expected too. This is going to be a gruelling 60 minutes I'd say. 

I think these two teams are a lot alike as far as both teams being better then their records indicate.

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17 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

Easy to forget that the 49ers have alot of very good players, particulary along the fronts. Rain expected too. This is going to be a gruelling 60 minutes I'd say. 

Yup.  A lot of very good pieces. If Lance develops, they could be a contender next year. 

2 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I think these two teams are a lot alike as far as both teams being better then their records indicate.

Yup, but we're different in a lot of ways too. 

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16 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t think so.  It was on a live segment of NFL Live. 

 

Huge game though. If we win, our % goes from 36 to 49, and IMO if we lose, the 36% falls to 5% or under. Depends on what TN does vs KC of course. I hate counting on teams to lose.... 

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10 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

 

 

 1 min mark. only drops 7% to 29%. with a loss.

 

Guessing that's with a factored KC win over TN.

538 used to have a predictor that let you pick games. 

Can't find it this year. 

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26 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Guessing that's with a factored KC win over TN.

538 used to have a predictor that let you pick games. 

Can't find it this year. 


Yep step 1 gotta win this Sunday.

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Just a note from a podcast I am listening to right now. With the weather conditions being heavy rain and wind Wentz has the big Arm that might be able to cut through the wind. Jimmy G doesn’t have a very strong arm so wind could have a effect. Also colts have the better run game.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Just a note from a podcast I am listening to right now. With the weather conditions being heavy rain and wind Wentz has the big Arm that might be able to cut through the wind. Jimmy G doesn’t have a very strong arm so wind could have a effect. Also colts have the better run game.

Bet Wentz can throw it over a mountain and threw the rain.

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3 minutes ago, Thunderbolt said:

With all the key injuries this team is hit with, we're looking at 2-5 after Sunday and facing the Titans next Doesn't look promising folks.

Which is why I hate the weather being so bad.  We might be looking at sitting Wentz if we have only won 4 games by week 12.

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6 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Which is why I hate the weather being so bad.  We might be looking at sitting Wentz if we have only won 4 games by week 12.

We're not sitting Wentz.

 

The weather being bad is probably a help, to us.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

We're not sitting Wentz.

 

The weather being bad is probably a help, to us.

I don’t think they will if they can manage to be in that 10-15 range in the draft. I think it gets a little hairy if it ends up top ten. Hopefully they can win enough games where that isn’t a question.  7 or 8 games should keep them right outside the top ten.

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5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I don’t think they will if they can manage to be in that 10-15 range in the draft. I think it gets a little hairy if it ends up top ten. Hopefully they can win enough games where that isn’t a question.  7 or 8 games should keep them right outside the top ten.

 

They will never just sit Wentz just to sit him as long as he's playing well and healthy.

I don't care what the record is. Like I've said previously, wouldn't be shocked if they "found" a surgery for him, but they'll never just sit him. They'd never be trusted as a trade partner again.

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8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

They will never just sit Wentz just to sit him as long as he's playing well and healthy.

I don't care what the record is. Like I've said previously, wouldn't be shocked if they "found" a surgery for him, but they'll never just sit him. They'd never be trusted as a trade partner again.

People would see right through that.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

He would also need a surgery. What if there is nothing to fix.

 

it wouldn't necessarily have to be surgery.  again, look at Collins in 2011.  He was put on IR due to a concussion.  they could simply say he re-aggravated the ankle in practice.  

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5 minutes ago, J@son said:

 

it wouldn't necessarily have to be surgery.  again, look at Collins in 2011.  He was put on IR due to a concussion.  they could simply say he re-aggravated the ankle in practice.  

Well I don’t see them doing that. Ballard isn’t going to lie and just make something up. It’s a skipprtly slope. Better hope Wentz and the team would be ok with it.

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Just now, Wentzszn said:

I know I am dwelling on this too much but does anyone have any record of Wentz playing in a game with  downpours and wind. I would be curious how he did or if he has played in a game like that.

 

Wentz has performed +9% over expected rate with winds over 15 MPH, and only 7% over expected rate with 1+ inches of rain.

 

yes this is sarcasm lol

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Wentz has performed +9% over expected rate with winds over 15 MPH, and only 7% over expected rate with 1+ inches of rain.

 

yes this is sarcasm lol

Not bad. To even be over expected rate is ok. With his arm not surprising with wind. I was searching on YouTube for games like this and found this one. I have no clue what year this was. But it is crazy. I am really surprised more players don’t get injured.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Not bad. To even be over expected rate is ok. With his arm not surprising with wind. I was searching on YouTube for games like this and found this one. I have no clue what year this was. But it is crazy. I am really surprised more players don’t get injured.

 

 

I think you missed the small print below that post :goodluck:

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I went the Irish by 1-6 (1), Colts (2) and Colts (3) as I think our offense will dominate but I went Bosa (4) because it is possible he has 2 sacks, (5) Indy QB's, (6) this is easily a must win game, we need to get to get 6-4 and hope at that point Tennessee is 5-5 or 6-4 at worse.

 

Reason why this won't be a win by wide margin is, our pass defense will give up a couple of TD's. Colts win this 27-23. 

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15 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I went the Irish by 1-6 (1), Colts (2) and Colts (3) as I think our offense will dominate but I went Bosa (4) because it is possible he has 2 sacks, (5) Indy QB's, (6) this is easily a must win game, we need to get to get 6-4 and hope at that point Tennessee is 5-5 or 6-4 at worse.

 

Reason why this won't be a win by wide margin is, our pass defense will give up a couple of TD's. Colts win this 27-23. 

 

You betting on KC this week?

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