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20 minutes ago, Dumbledore said:

The Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL for red zone effectiveness. So that tells me it is a bigger problem such as play calling or preparation.

It’s the lack of practice time in camp. It will get better as the season goes on. Red zone is always the last thing that comes. Thr first four games were like training camp for this team.

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1 minute ago, AustinnKaine said:

I undedrstand what you are saying. I am just pointing out a simple fact. Everyone thinks its bad until they have it worse. There are plenty of teams in the NFL that would rather have Ballard than their GM. The picks prove it, and so do all of the charts put together by numerous analysts. 

We agree, thanks for the chart bro!

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Just now, AustinnKaine said:

I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.

 

First of all, injuries are random. Because everything is random. 

 

If it wasn't random, you would be able to predict who gets injured next. You can't.

 

Also, you are supporting what I said when you say "of course you see clusters" - this was my main point. Clusters exist even when they aren't "supposed to". Whilst you are claiming fallacy here, there is none to be found. We aren't talking about gambling. We are talking about real world events. Also clusters are not exclusive to mutually exclusive predictions. Clusters happen everywhere, in eveyrhting. Down to microbes, and as large as galaxies. 

 

Let's not forget the main point though. Don't blame Ballard, nor Paris for his injuries. As these things are uncontrollable. His talen is plain as day. 

 

I'd argue this to degree, some people are more 'injury prone' than others, but it's a guessing game still. Campbell had no history that would suggest he'd have so many injuries. 

 

I think we're kinda agreeing even if doesn't seem so. I think there's a real big difference between 'pure' stats scenarios and real world problems.

 

My day job involves modelling some fairly complex systems. In an ideal world you'd be able to measure everything perfectly and understand cause/effect probabilities, in reality... not so much. Especially when you introduce human behaviour. I've long advocated you can't argue about not drafting a player in hindsight, especially low rounders. Some of those were very unique situations that you couldn't replicate on other teams. Like an inverse Jerry Hughes. I don't think he was ever happy here in Indy, as soon as you take him out of somewhere he didn't like he flourished. 

 

But that's why we like the NFL right? If a numbers geek could tell us all the outcomes, why would we watch?

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3 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

I undedrstand what you are saying. I am just pointing out a simple fact. Everyone thinks its bad until they have it worse. There are plenty of teams in the NFL that would rather have Ballard than their GM. The picks prove it, and so do all of the charts put together by numerous analysts. 

 

Another fallacy of us fans. We tend to be myopic about our own bad beats.

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4 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

What's the best metric for assessing success of a draft class? Ages ago I dived into trying to break down drafts and looked at things such as average games stated/All pro selections/Some position based stats and it soon gets pretty noisy. But you do start to pick out a few things that aren't all that surprising. QBs tend to 'need' to be drafted higher to be long term successful vs say RBs where you can get some low rounders having long/decent careers.

 

See I like the chart above, but it's hard presented without the context/methodology to understand if it's good analysis or not, and that's not to say it's not.

honestly Im pretty sure the chart is comparing on field results directly to projections before being drafted. I wouldn't say this would be my first metric. 

 

I think that it's really hard to analyze humans. That's why there are huge swathes of stats and industrial/organizaitonal psych degrees for people who love it. I learn just enough stats that people cannot sell me numbers that hide lies. I think that the amount of games a player starts, combined with a performance metric per game, as well as some of the things you listed. Awards, wins, and peer recognition as well. These things are just hard to quantify. 

 

That's why people immediately run to stat lines to support their arguments. It doesn't account for the fact that players like Andrew Luck would literally sacrifice their body on a field to win. Even if he fumbles, or throws an interception in the process. You know, the intangibles. 

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Just now, AustinnKaine said:

honestly Im pretty sure the chart is comparing on field results directly to projections before being drafted. I wouldn't say this would be my first metric. 

 

I think that it's really hard to analyze humans. That's why there are huge swathes of stats and industrial/organizaitonal psych degrees for people who love it. I learn just enough stats that people cannot sell me numbers that hide lies. I think that the amount of games a player starts, combined with a performance metric per game, as well as some of the things you listed. Awards, wins, and peer recognition as well. These things are just hard to quantify. 

 

That's why people immediately run to stat lines to support their arguments. It doesn't account for the fact that players like Andrew Luck would literally sacrifice their body on a field to win. Even if he fumbles, or throws an interception in the process. You know, the intangibles. 

 

QFT and that's coming from a guy who likes stats. People are bloody complicated.

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

QFT and that's coming from a guy who likes stats. People are bloody complicated.

exactly. take for example one of the metrics I listed. Total starts

 

If you have a stubborn coach, or an overly involved GM (grigson)

 

Those start counts might not matter as much, if the coach or organization are not starting players purely off of performance. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

It’s the lack of practice time in camp. It will get better as the season goes on. Red zone is always the last thing that comes. Thr first four games were like training camp for this team.

We lack a red zone playmaker.  That’s the clear problem IMO.  We just don’t have that guy.  
 

In the red zone, everything is compacted which favors big guys with excellent body control and body awareness, or do everything alpha talent at receiver.  

 

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Just now, AustinnKaine said:

exactly. take for example one of the metrics I listed. Total starts

 

If you have a stubborn coach, or an overly involved GM (grigson)

 

Those start counts might not matter as much, if the coach or organization are not starting players purely off of performance. 

 

Ahh the Samson Satele effect you mean... Probably still head bobbing somewhere out there to this day.

Just now, Nickster said:

We lack a red zone playmaker.  That’s the clear problem IMO.  We just don’t have that guy.  
 

In the red zone, everything is compacted which favors big guys with excellent body control and body awareness, or do everything alpha talent at receiver.  

 

 

Do we? Or do we just not use them.... hmm I'd bet @EastStreet would have something to say about that Big Mac.

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3 minutes ago, Nickster said:

We lack a red zone playmaker.  That’s the clear problem IMO.  We just don’t have that guy.  
 

In the red zone, everything is compacted which favors big guys with excellent body control and body awareness, or do everything alpha talent at receiver.  

 

We have big guys. We have two TE who are 6’6 and a 6’4 WR. This is the hardest part of the field so it’s just Wentz understanding what his weapons can do Last week we only kicked one FG. So that was progress. We do need to get Hines more involved in the red zone. We have not seen too much of him yet running to the outside.

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3 minutes ago, Nickster said:

We lack a red zone playmaker.  That’s the clear problem IMO.  We just don’t have that guy.  
 

In the red zone, everything is compacted which favors big guys with excellent body control and body awareness, or do everything alpha talent at receiver.  

 

Pittman? Cox? Pascal ain't that little. Neither is Patmon, Staracan? 

 

I don't think its a lacking personell issue. The talent and players are there. We don't have a Calvin Johnson, if that's what you're saying. I agree. Only a few teams do though? If that?

 

 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Ahh the Samson Satele effect you mean... Probably still head bobbing somewhere out there to this day.

 

Do we? Or do we just not use them.... hmm I'd bet @EastStreet would have something to say about that Big Mac.

I KNOW ole East would have something to say about that.  I bet you’d never guess who has the most red zone touches in the NFL.

 

Hint:  many on here think think this guy is underused.

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2 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

There has been some poor drafting lately, that is including a really good class from more than a couple years ago.  They did say last couple in their post

And the Chiefs includes Mahomes?

 

If we are gonna cherry pick who should and shouldn't be included in our success, where would it end? You can't say that because he hit on player x, y , z he shouldn't be given credit. 

 

Actually, I don't even think what you are saying is logical. Of course the players he hit on should be included. Because every other team has outlier players they hit on too. 

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

We have big guys. We have two TE who are 6’6 and a 6’4 WR. This is the hardest part of the field so it’s just Wentz understanding what his weapons can do Last week we only kicked one FG. So that was progress. We do need to get Hines more involved in the red zone. We have not seen too much of him yet running to the outside.

Every team has TE in the 6’5” range.  The QB is obviously important.

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

We have big guys. We have two TE who are 6’6 and a 6’4 WR. This is the hardest part of the field so it’s just Wentz understanding what his weapons can do Last week we only kicked one FG. So that was progress. We do need to get Hines more involved in the red zone. We have seen too much of him yet running to the outside.

 

Yet weirdly we have the "tied 4th" best receiver league wide in terms of Red Zone TDs (with 3, leagues leaders are Kupp/Hopkins with 6 each). Can you guess who it is?

 

Height isn't everything in the red zone and I agree we cold use Hines in more creative ways. 

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3 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I KNOW ole East would have something to say about that.  I bet you’d never guess who has the most red zone touches in the NFL.

 

Hint:  many on here think think this guy is underused.

 

I'm going to guess Taylor and you're commitment to not wanting to like him is weirdly admirable. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

It’s Pascal.

 

Bingo! He really is an absolute lunch pail guy. 

 

Underrated route runner, decent in the red zone, and you saw his blocking skills on the long Taylor run. Compare to Pittman who slightly panicked I feel down field, and you kinda saw Taylor put his hands on him to steer him into the correct block.

 

I've long time loved Pascal and will continue to do so.  

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3 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

Pittman? Cox? Pascal ain't that little. Neither is Patmon, Staracan? 

 

I don't think its a lacking personell issue. The talent and players are there. We don't have a Calvin Johnson, if that's what you're saying. I agree. Only a few teams do though? If that?

 

 

Just disagree.  We have no alpha talent IMO.  Pittman is going to be a decent player but I think would be much better suited as a 2nd option type of guy.  

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Bingo! He really is an absolute lunch pail guy.

Pascal has always been a guy you cand depend on to get 7 or 8 touchdowns every season.  
 

I like that Wentz is trusting MAC. I feel good that MAC isn’t going to disappear this year. I think he is going to have a huge year. We need to re sign him after the season. Should of had two touchdowns Sunday. 

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Just now, Nickster said:

Just disagree.  We have no alpha talent IMO.  Pittman is going to be a decent player but I think would be much better suited as a 2nd option type of guy.  

Okay so can you give me examples of alpha talent WR in the league? I can honestly only think of a few, im not trying to be funny. 

 

Metkalf,

CantGuardMike

Mike evans - questionable? 

Julio Jones

AJ Brown - on his way? 

Hopkins? - outlier

Davantae Adams?

 

There is a lot of compounding things here that really make this hard to think about. example: Adams has Rodgers. Hopkins is unique like Derrick Henry. If I had to trim this list down to the best two players?

 

Metkalf and Hopkins? I mean you want us to have one of the best WR in the league? Doesn't every team want the same thing? 

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13 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Ahh the Samson Satele effect you mean... Probably still head bobbing somewhere out there to this day.

 

Do we? Or do we just not use them.... hmm I'd bet @EastStreet would have something to say about that Big Mac.

Yup, we don't lack RZ play makers. We lack a RZ play caller. We have several big guys who are possession guys with elite traits.... , like Pittman, Mo, Strachan that go virtually unused. 

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2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Just disagree.  We have no alpha talent IMO.  Pittman is going to be a decent player but I think would be much better suited as a 2nd option type of guy.  

Pittman has his Lockett now with Hilton back. If Hilton can stay healthy that will be huge. But we need to find his compliment after the season. My guess is TY might retire. With Campbell not staying healthy we almost need to bring TY back another year and draft his replacement.

Also if you don’t think Pittman is a alpha talent you haven’t been watching him play.

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19 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

https://www.colts.com/news/antwaun-woods-practice-squad-active-roster-defensive-tackle-transactionse

 

Made public 2 minutes ago, guess I should have waited and not let cat out of the bag....

So he was signed off the practice squad when the team didn’t have him listed on the practice squad on their website.  Priceless.

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Just now, EastStreet said:

Yup, we don't lack RZ play makers. We lack a RZ play caller. We have several big guys who are possession guys with elite traits.... , like Pittman, Mo, Strachan that go virtually unused. 

 

I really don't want to agree with this, but the evidence is becoming compelling. I like Frank, I think he's a good offensive mind, but perhaps a pretty bad play caller. The NFL has gone through a fairly rapid evolution of "roles" on the coaching staff and some teams are still slightly stuck in the traditional ideas. 

 

If you have a brilliant head coach who can call plays, great. But there's no shame in giving up play calling. BB still has a defensive play caller.. and I'd say he's the best defensive strategist ever.

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1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

So he was signed off the practice squad when the team didn’t have him listed on the practice squad on their website.  Priceless.

Team site hadnt updated in awhile which is typical , Wikipedia site actually updates much faster for what it is worth. Already has Sam's elevation and Eason's cut

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianapolis_Colts

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I really don't want to agree with this, but the evidence is becoming compelling. I like Frank, I think he's a good offensive mind, but perhaps a pretty bad play caller. The NFL has gone through a fairly rapid evolution of "roles" on the coaching staff and some teams are still slightly stuck in the traditional ideas. 

 

If you have a brilliant head coach who can call plays, great. But there's no shame in giving up play calling. BB still has a defensive play caller.. and I'd say he's the best defensive strategist ever.

I agree with this. I want Reich involved in the playcalling, but I do think someone else should take over where he fails. The same philosophy carries over to individual positions. You put your receiving back in for 3rd and long. (usually). Same thing applies to swapping out a coverage LB for a run stopping LB. 

 

If Frank consistently fails in the RZ I think that someone else should sub in and have the majority voice for RZ calls. 

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14 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I KNOW ole East would have something to say about that.  I bet you’d never guess who has the most red zone touches in the NFL.

 

Hint:  many on here think think this guy is underused.

 

Taylor up the gut is not really what people are talking about when saying "RZ playmaker".....

 

We lack a RZ play caller. Taylor only succeeds when our OL can dominate, or when we have a good mix of plays so opponents don't stack.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Taylor up the gut is not really what people are talking about when saying "RZ playmaker".....

 

We lack a RZ play caller. Taylor only succeeds when our OL can dominate, or when we have a good mix of plays so opponents don't stack.

Let’s let things work out. When there was no camp with Wentz this wasn’t going to just all of a sudden be great.  Wentz is also responsible for the mixing of plays and getting them in the right play. This could all work itself out in a few weeks. Reich was very good in the red zone with Luck and Jacoby. With rivers it was understandable.

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2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I'm going to guess Taylor and you're commitment to not wanting to like him is weirdly admirable. 

I dont dislike him I just think he’s limited as a runner and as of yet habit proven to be more than mediocre v. Good teams.  
 

there are actually advanced metrics that support some of my ideas.

 

last year he was bottom 5 of like 50 qualifying RBs in making tacklers miss and breaking  breaking tackles up until late November. I assume these numbers raised some in the last 5 games.  Can’t find stats for the year.  But he was bottom tier.

 

He’s is deadly in the open fields with the sprinters speed no doubt.  But he needs clear rushing lanes or open screen lanes to get there.  he’s not creative at the point of attack.  That’s my criticism.  
 

he has still not had a good game running v.  A decent team.  Balt game this year he had those long open field receptions but was unremarkable running.

 



 

 

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7 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I really don't want to agree with this, but the evidence is becoming compelling. I like Frank, I think he's a good offensive mind, but perhaps a pretty bad play caller. The NFL has gone through a fairly rapid evolution of "roles" on the coaching staff and some teams are still slightly stuck in the traditional ideas. 

 

If you have a brilliant head coach who can call plays, great. But there's no shame in giving up play calling. BB still has a defensive play caller.. and I'd say he's the best defensive strategist ever.

Very compelling. We're just so bland and predictable, it's really hard to make an argument to the contrary. 

 

Frank does pretty well scripting plays to start the game, but he simply lacks in-game feel, and is completely stubborn at times in the RZ. 

3 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

I agree with this. I want Reich involved in the playcalling, but I do think someone else should take over where he fails. The same philosophy carries over to individual positions. You put your receiving back in for 3rd and long. (usually). Same thing applies to swapping out a coverage LB for a run stopping LB. 

 

If Frank consistently fails in the RZ I think that someone else should sub in and have the majority voice for RZ calls. 

 

I'm fine with him being part of the scripting for the first couple of series, and overall strategy, but I just don't want him calling plays anymore. He's never ever been known as a play calling genius. He called plays in LAC, and that team had the worst balance in the league (and he was let go). He didn't call plays in Philly, and has a very predictable/stubborn track record here. He's not always horrible, but he's not often great either outside of some scripts. And he goes way conservative in the RZ and way conservative too early in games. 

 

And just to be clear, I'm not saying we have to be an air raid type of offense. Not at all. Just a better mix, and a better feel for in-game situations and adjustments. 

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9 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Let’s let things work out. When there was no camp with Wentz this wasn’t going to just all of a sudden be great.  Wentz is also responsible for the mixing of plays and getting them in the right play. This could all work itself out in a few weeks. Reich was very good in the red zone with Luck and Jacoby. With rivers it was understandable.

 

He was with Luck but that was all of one season, Brissett not so much. 

 

So far that would suggest talent overcoming play calling...

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

He was with Luck but that was all of one season, Brissett not so much. 

 

So far that would suggest talent overcoming play calling...

He was with Jacoby too. They  barely dropped in red zone percentage with Jacoby. It went down maybe 2%. It was very small compared to what the QB drop off was from Luck and Jacoby. I seen the tweet with all these stats early in the season. I will see if I can find it. 

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  • Shive changed the title to Eason Waived/Claimed by Seattle (Merge)

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