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Draft flops haunting the team


runthepost
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I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 

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3 hours ago, runthepost said:

I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 

There are numerous teams in the NFL that completely bomb picks year after year. Ballard has certainly whiffed on a few, Hooker, Quincy, and Banogu are the only 3 that we can definitively say were bad though if Campbell gets hurt again he may be on the list. Turay and Lewis are coming into their own(Lewis especially) and Rock has turned into our best CB. As a whole, Ballard is very good at drafting. Our biggest issues come down to defensive scheme in that our LB's seem unable to cover and offensively we typically aren't the most creative. Have some faith! 

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5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

I think one of the problems is Ballard prioritizing character over talent. Sometimes you gotta take a chance.

 

I don't think that has anything to do with it. I think there're players who've had 'character' issues who've bombed. I think there're teams who've brought those guys in and whiffed. Plus CB said he thinks his locker room can handle those things better now so that's not likely a factor like before.

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16 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

I don't think that has anything to do with it. I think there're players who've had 'character' issues who've bombed. I think there're teams who've brought those guys in and whiffed. Plus CB said he thinks his locker room can handle those things better now so that's not likely a factor like before.

 

I'm just saying Ballard always will go with the straight As boy scout over someone who might have a red flag or two, but is more talented. Some examples are Sweat and Metcalf. I get it hindsight is 20/20. 

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1 minute ago, BProland85 said:

I don’t fault Ballard for the 2017 draft. Those picks were basically made by Pagano and Grigson’s scouts. 


He spent the entire year before coming in as a member of the Chiefs scouting department. He didn’t just show up here with 0 knowledge of the draft class and have to trust the judgement of scouts he had never worked with and had built no trust with. 

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3 minutes ago, John Waylon said:


He spent the entire year before coming in as a member of the Chiefs scouting department. He didn’t just show up here with 0 knowledge of the draft class and have to trust the judgement of scouts he had never worked with and had built no trust with. 

Pagano REALLY wanted Hooker. You could tell on the draft video of them calling Malik on the phone. Pagano basically called him the next Ed Reed.

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2 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Pagano REALLY wanted Hooker. You could tell on the draft video of them calling Malik on the phone. Pagano basically called him the next Ed Reed.

Hooker actually played well under Pagano, and overall well his first two years. 

He was a great fit for Pagano's D. He was not a great fit for Flus's scheme.

So IMO, Hooker was not a bust, just bad fit as Flus moved from Pagano's D to his his own from 18 through 19

 

PFF ranks just for context....

 

               Hooker          Blackmon

Year 1       65.3                60.8

Year 2       79.1                57.8

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6 hours ago, runthepost said:

I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 

 

Ballard has been very open since day 1 that he is believes in coaching and that some players need a few years to develop with proper NFL coaching. 

 

The 2017 draft, like others have said, was largely based on Pagano's wants.  As @EastStreetsays (quoted below), Hooker played well early.  Quincy had a time period where he looked good (when Mike Mitchell was here), but definitely seemed to lack something in the mental part to really be a solid NFL player (at least while he was here -- he is still in the league and still relatively young at age 25).   

 

Turay has looked very good this year, IMO.  His big issue has been inability to stay healthy, which stinks.  Turay did have an injury history, so maybe it's fair to bash Ballard on taking a guy with an injury history... but Ballard said pretty much right away that Turay was a bit raw and would take a couple years to develop.  He seems to be developing all right.  Lewis has also suffered due to injury bug, though he really looks to be pretty good this year.   I think his toe injury which hampered him most of his rookie year hurt him a bit, not just because he missed time or was playing hurt/slow, but also because I think it impacted the way he was used as a rotational DL who sometimes plays inside and sometimes plays outside.  This year, he looks good and it looks like he is being used the most effectively he has been in his career.  He's on pace for ~10 sacks this  year, which (IMO) is pretty hard to say is disappointing from a guy drafted at 64.

 

The 2019 draft... again Ya-Sin has been hampered by injury for sure.  He had his ups and downs last year and got into a little rut with pass interference calls.  He worked his way up to CB #1 this year before getting hurt again.  If he stays healthy and on the trajectory he's on, he's a solid pick.  Banogu doesn't look horrible this year, but of all the picks you mentioned, he has been the worst IMO.. still not giving up on him completely as he was definitely a project player when drafted, but he's gotta turn his potential into production ASAP.  Then Campbell has shown a bunch of flashes.  I thought he looked very good against Balt. and think as WEntz develops more confidence in him, the more he'll grow.  Again, Campbell has been hit with the injury bug (and in this case, he had no real injury history when he was drafted)... which is unfortunate.  I think, if healthy, you'll want to remove Campbell from this list by the end of the year.  Now, I get it -- DK Metcalf is doing great in SEA -- that said, DK had a huge flag about him regarding a neck injury which is why so many other teams passed up on him, so I don't blame Ballard at all there.

 

52 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Hooker actually played well under Pagano, and overall well his first two years. 

He was a great fit for Pagano's D. He was not a great fit for Flus's scheme.

So IMO, Hooker was not a bust, just bad fit as Flus moved from Pagano's D to his his own from 18 through 19

 

PFF ranks just for context....

 

               Hooker          Blackmon

Year 1       65.3                60.8

Year 2       79.1                57.8

 

I think Hooker's inability to stay healthy was his biggest issue.  I think he could be all right in Flus' system -- as you noted, he was a better fit for Pagano's D than Flus', but if he stayed healthy, I think Hooker would be all right in Flus' system.  The other thing with Hooker was he kinda disappeared at times, which for a FS, I don't think is a terrible thing (i.e., I think teams were mostly avoiding throwing his way even in Flus' scheme).

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7 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

I think Hooker's inability to stay healthy was his biggest issue.  I think he could be all right in Flus' system -- as you noted, he was a better fit for Pagano's D than Flus', but if he stayed healthy, I think Hooker would be all right in Flus' system.  The other thing with Hooker was he kinda disappeared at times, which for a FS, I don't think is a terrible thing (i.e., I think teams were mostly avoiding throwing his way even in Flus' scheme).

 

Purely my opinion, but Hooker was the exact opposite of what we drafted in Blackmon, so not sure Hooker would have been fine in Flus's scheme. Hooker was an incredible lurker in C1 and could pull off C3 easily as well. He'd certainly disappear, but all C1/3 FSs do if teams don't throw deep against him. Hooker was not a downhill guy, he was a deep sideline to sideline guy (C1). Blackmon struggles in coverage going back or sideline to sideline. He is great coming down hill though. Pagano might have loved Blackmon too, but he would have drafted him for SS. 

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I disagree that the draft misses have been what has haunted this team.

 

In fact, I think Ballard and his staff have done a good job of upgrading the talent here through the draft. Towards the end of his tenure Polian was missing more on picks and Grigson didn't good great in this area.

 

Below are the players Ballard drafted from 2017-2020. I thought it was too early to include guys from the 2021 draft. In a very subjective way I grouped them into whether or not I thought that was a good pick.

 

It's VERY subjective and I know there will be some others disagree with and that's fine. My point isn't to debate someone on whether they think Patmon and Lewis were good or bad picks.

 

No real formula was used it's just my initial opinion when thinking about it.

 

No (19)

Ben Banogu, Daurice Fountain, Deon Cain, Dezmon Patmon, Gerri Green, Jackson Barton, Jacob Eason, Javon Patterson, Jordan Glasgow, Kemoko Turay, Malik Hooker, Marvell Tell, Nate Hairston, Parris Campbell, Quincy Wilson, Robert Windsor, Rock Ya-Sin, Tarell Basham, Zach Banner.

 

Yes (19)

Anthony Walker Jr., Bobby Okereke, Braden Smith, Danny Pinter, Darius Leonard, E. J. Speed, Grover Stewart, Isaiah Rodgers, Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, Julian Blackmon, Khari Willis, Marlon Mack, Matthew Adams, Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hines, Quenton Nelson, Tyquan Lewis, Zaire Franklin

 

Based on what I have about that is right at 50%. I imagine that most people would end up with a similar percentage. From a percentage standpoint, if a draft picks are working out close to half the time i'll take that all day.

 

What I think Ballard needs to deliver on is another great player. Anthony Walker was a fine linebacker for this team but we are not back by not having drafted another one of him. For the Colts to take the next step they need to improve the very top of the roster. That's a lot easier said than done I know but I think that's what this team really needs...to hit another home run much more so than they need another single or double.

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Hooker actually played well under Pagano, and overall well his first two years. 

He was a great fit for Pagano's D. He was not a great fit for Flus's scheme.

So IMO, Hooker was not a bust, just bad fit as Flus moved from Pagano's D to his his own from 18 through 19

 

PFF ranks just for context....

 

               Hooker          Blackmon

Year 1       65.3                60.8

Year 2       79.1                57.8

 

Hooker's main problem was he couldn't stay on the field,  not unlike Campbell. 

 

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Ballard has had his share of underwhelming draft picks for sure.

But also the lack of FA to help the roster and failure to successfully address the prime positions in today's game.

 

Thank God that the Eagles were a Dumpster Fire last year and Wentz fell into our lap. That was extremely fortunate for us or we really would have been a lot worse now and going forward. 

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12 hours ago, runthepost said:

I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 

That you Dacich?

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6 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Pagano REALLY wanted Hooker. You could tell on the draft video of them calling Malik on the phone. Pagano basically called him the next Ed Reed.

I had Hooker as a borderline draft bust based on his injury history and wanted Budda Baker instead.  Fast forward to the future and Baker stayed healthy and has had a better career.  If Hooker could of stayed healthy they both might have been comparable.  

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5 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Turay has looked very good this year, IMO.  His big issue has been inability to stay healthy, which stinks.  Turay did have an injury history, so maybe it's fair to bash Ballard on taking a guy with an injury history... but Ballard said pretty much right away that Turay was a bit raw and would take a couple years to develop.  

 

I think Hooker's inability to stay healthy was his biggest issue.  

Think the Colts are big risk/reward dreamers as others are pointing out and it appears history is working against the Colts.  I am not a big Dayo fan.  Wasn't impressed with him in college and his injury totally removed him from my draft board.  The Colts needed other key starters and could have waited to draft or acquired a future edge player.  The start to this season am seeing my fears realized but do hope Dayo proves me wrong.  Do think the Colts should be more cautious drafting injured players and go with more of the proven healthy next BPA.

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10 hours ago, DeepseaColt said:

There are numerous teams in the NFL that completely bomb picks year after year. Ballard has certainly whiffed on a few, Hooker, Quincy, and Banogu are the only 3 that we can definitively say were bad though if Campbell gets hurt again he may be on the list. Turay and Lewis are coming into their own(Lewis especially) and Rock has turned into our best CB. As a whole, Ballard is very good at drafting. Our biggest issues come down to defensive scheme in that our LB's seem unable to cover and offensively we typically aren't the most creative. Have some faith! 

It will never fail to surprise me how bang average (or worse!) players are supported on here simply because we happened to draft them.

 

There's another thread on here about our pass rush stats and they are horrendous but Turay and Lewis are 'coming into their own'. Eek!

 

 

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10 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I'm just saying Ballard always will go with the straight As boy scout over someone who might have a red flag or two, but is more talented. Some examples are Sweat and Metcalf. I get it hindsight is 20/20. 

Sweat and Metcalf happened BEFORE CB said the locker room was ready IIRC.

 

Plus, one thing folks fail to note when you drop names is the fact that DK Metcalk in Seattle might not have been the same player in Indy. It's not simply a case of great talent translating across the board seamlessly.

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10 hours ago, CR91 said:

I'm just saying Ballard always will go with the straight As boy scout over someone who might have a red flag or two, but is more talented. Some examples are Sweat and Metcalf. I get it hindsight is 20/20. 

Sweat had some concerns over his suspension at Michigan State, but he also had a heart issue pop up on medicals, so there was a lot of teams that took him off their board for that alone.

 

Metcalf was coming off a season ending neck injury, was known to be a physical freak, but there were concerns about his ability to run anything other than a go route, and he had a bad drop issue as well.

 

Hindsight says they ended up as great NFL players, but at the time, they both had legitimate red flags that weren't really character related.

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Lets just remember how far in the depths of terrible we were when Ballard took over this team. No GM hits every pick, no GM has ever hit every pick. Its a crap shoot, hit one or two a year on average your doing a good job. Ballard needs to just tweak his philosophy a tiny bit and be a bit more open to character guys (as someone else posted), as well more open to veteran FA.

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I think the players are good for the most part. 

 

We could certainly do a lot worse than Ballard, and I'm personally glad he and Dodds are at the helm. 

 

Coaches not scheming said players to play to their strengths is what I would like to see improved upon.

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11 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Ballard has been very open since day 1 that he is believes in coaching and that some players need a few years to develop with proper NFL coaching. 

 

I see this around here a lot and it really confuses me (not directed at your personally btw).

Drafting players that take 2-4 years to develop is failing as a GM when other GM's are drafting players that are ready now in the same draft range. He's clearly choosing the wrong player. There is literally no scenario where getting positive results later as opposed to earlier is better- drafting included. 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

It will never fail to surprise me how bang average (or worse!) players are supported on here simply because we happened to draft them.

 

There's another thread on here about our pass rush stats and they are horrendous but Turay and Lewis are 'coming into their own'. Eek!

 

 

I'm not sure where you got this post was supporting players simply because the Colts drafted them. I think it's pretty clear we've had whiffs and great hits. Concerning Turay and Lewis, scheme and secondary play plays a big part when it comes to pass rush. Before the Baltimore game, our defense was still ranked in the top half of the league even after an insanely brutal schedule. Turay and Lewis but Lewis in particular is an excellent defender and is the type great defenses have rotating in and out. Again, until our LB's can cover or our safeties stop getting burnt our pass rush will be mediocre. 

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24 minutes ago, DeepseaColt said:

I'm not sure where you got this post was supporting players simply because the Colts drafted them. I think it's pretty clear we've had whiffs and great hits. Concerning Turay and Lewis, scheme and secondary play plays a big part when it comes to pass rush. Before the Baltimore game, our defense was still ranked in the top half of the league even after an insanely brutal schedule. Turay and Lewis but Lewis in particular is an excellent defender and is the type great defenses have rotating in and out. Again, until our LB's can cover or our safeties stop getting burnt our pass rush will be mediocre. 

There's no other reason to rate them positively apart from the fact they have ended up here.

 

If Turay or Lewis were playing at any other team would we look at them and describe them as "excellent"? I would highly doubt it.

 

Every part of our defense is brutal. The front 4 get little to no pressure, the linebackers look lost and the secondary can't cover anybody.  Not one bit of the defense looks above mediocre. 

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3 hours ago, Shive said:

Sweat had some concerns over his suspension at Michigan State, but he also had a heart issue pop up on medicals, so there was a lot of teams that took him off their board for that alone.

 

Metcalf was coming off a season ending neck injury, was known to be a physical freak, but there were concerns about his ability to run anything other than a go route, and he had a bad drop issue as well.

 

Hindsight says they ended up as great NFL players, but at the time, they both had legitimate red flags that weren't really character related.

 

A red flag isn't only about their character. I'm just making a point that Ballard needs to take a chance once in a while.

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4 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

Sweat and Metcalf happened BEFORE CB said the locker room was ready IIRC.

 

Plus, one thing folks fail to note when you drop names is the fact that DK Metcalk in Seattle might not have been the same player in Indy. It's not simply a case of great talent translating across the board seamlessly.

 

The locker room not being ready to handle a character issue seems like a lacking excuse since we have plenty of leaders like Buck and Leonard and still go with safe pick. Hell, what chances have we taken in FA in terms of red flags? Rhodes?

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IMHO it is not a talent problem as to why this is a losing football team. Not every single draft pick is going to be a super star but if youre getting people who contribute then youre doing well. Whether you like it or not the majority of those players are contributing. Banogu is still playing out of position imho. Plus as it sits Ballard has still drafted better talent then Grigs ever did and better talent then Polian did in his later years.

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15 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Hooker's main problem was he couldn't stay on the field,  not unlike Campbell. 

 

After the injury his rook year, he played 14 games, missing only 2 games, and graded 70+..... We've had 3 of 5 starting DBs miss 2 games or more this season already. And Carrie is a borderline starter and next man in, so 4 of 6 you could say.

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I really want to get in on this conversation.  Already had opinions about these players coming into this year.  And I wanted to review and analyze both the 2018 and 2019 drafts, and whether each player was a strike or a whiff.  However, I swore that I wouldn't do it until this season was over, and the players in those drafts had enough playing time for me to make those judgements better.

So, I'm gonna hold my cards until the offseason.

(But I don't disagree with the OP. Shhhhhhh!)

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On 10/12/2021 at 1:11 PM, runthepost said:

I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 


My observations…

 

I think you can take two off this list.   Lewis and Rock are two of our highest graded players right now.   Both only need to be healthy to play.   By the end of this season this should be even more apparent. 
 

Speaking of health….

 

Lets give Campbell the rest of this season.   He’s healthy.   He just needs to play more and get on the same page as Wentz. 
 

Couldn't help but notice that your post is mostly about the second round and yet, you’ve left off Pittman and Taylor.   Hmmm?

 

By the end of the year, you could have a new 2nd round thread talking about Pittman, Taylor,  Rock, Lewis and Campbell.    And I haven’t given up on Turay and BB,  though both have a steep up hill climb. 
 

Let’s revisit this at the end of the season.  Patience can be your friend.  

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I would say the Colts have a very boom or bust style of drafting under Ballard. He bets on traits and character. Sometimes it gets you guys like Darius Leonard, other times it gets you guys like Ben Banogu. I will say though that I think we do well when we take safe/no brainer picks. Guys like Nelson, Pittman, Taylor, and Smith were guys who played at a high level in college and universally ranked high on most expert draft boards. I think Paye will be in the category too.

 

Id agree that the early draft misses have hurt the team. Mainly because you know it’s going to take awhile for guys to develop, but when guys approach the end of their rookie deals and the bets haven’t turned into wins, it sets your team back. Guys like Turray, Lewis, Ya Sin, and Banogou, are backup level players. If this team is going to go far they have to hit on those players going forward. And by hit I mean, they need to be starter material.

 

I always applaud Ballard with sticking to his guns, but I’d like to see him make more safe picks. At this point we have enough projects.

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On 10/12/2021 at 4:11 PM, runthepost said:

I understand a GM is not going to hit on every pick, but the last several years we have had several second round picks that have not produced as well as other players at similar positions that were drafted around the player we selected.
 

2017:

Drafted Hooker 15th pick

Drafted Quincy 46th pick

 

2018: 

Drafted Turay 52nd

Drafted Lewis 64th pick

 

2019: 

Drafted Rock 34th pick

Drafted Banogu 49th pick

Drafted Campbell 59th pick

 

 

I mean, Rock is coming into his own at the start of yr three....which is pretty normal for all but the cbs drafted top ten....

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On 10/12/2021 at 8:55 PM, CR91 said:

I think one of the problems is Ballard prioritizing character over talent. Sometimes you gotta take a chance.

 

We should’ve taken a chance on Antonio Brown. And according to Ballard we could’ve had Brady but Ballard felt it would be a problem for the fan base. Winning is the only language a fan base knows 

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On 10/12/2021 at 9:36 PM, EastStreet said:

Hooker actually played well under Pagano, and overall well his first two years. 

He was a great fit for Pagano's D. He was not a great fit for Flus's scheme.

So IMO, Hooker was not a bust, just bad fit as Flus moved from Pagano's D to his his own from 18 through 19

 

PFF ranks just for context....

 

               Hooker          Blackmon

Year 1       65.3                60.8

Year 2       79.1                57.8

 

  True. But CB was either the driving force behind the move to C-2 or at the very least, 

  was well aware of it prior to picking Hooker where he did (yeah, I know he was

  considered to be 'great value' at #15, but if he's not gonna be a fit, the value was

  largely irrelevant).  

 

  Water over the dam at this point. But still, the pick never made sense from the get-go.

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    • Buffalo was a bad match up against the Colts. They r one dimensional. They have no running game and their front Dline is light. I have been saying it for 4 years now and counting. This defensive scheme/talent can play well against one dimensional offences. U get a content qb and running hame and its over. For some reason fans r waiting for the D to wake up. Leonard- great play maker not bad against run and pass. Would have tagged him. Okereke-average. Blackmon-should be a SS. Willis-poor in coverage. Sin-zone corner and poor in man to man. Rhoades-near the end of the road Moore- very good player, but for how much longer. Buckner- elite but will be old and past his prime when they decide to build a defense. Paye-looks like the only young D player I see star potential  in. Daye-not sure. Stewart- thought they over paid and never saw the urgency to get him signed. Stallworth maybe better Please let me know if I am wrong on any of these players.  Does this look like a defense of the future that is going to go thru 3 to 4 qbs in the play offs and win the superbowl in the next 2-3 years?
    • Yea, no it’s ok, I know that. The point I was making, is based off Franks comments, he knew they were stacking the box. He definitely knew it by the 3rd quarter. Can’t afford to get cut man, I’ll definitely clear waivers. Baby need shoes.
    • Yup, I was scratching my head too. We have two great RBs for edge runs. Both with crazy speed and burst. Why use it vs Buffalo, who was at that time the #1 run D, and was loading the box against us, and not use it vs TB.... It was like twilight zone stuff to me.   And even though it's called a run blitz, it's still a blitz. So when your RPO goes pass, they still have 5 guys pressuring your QB that's dropping back.    Anyway, at least Reich basically admitted he was outsmarted by Bowles. I just don't understand why we didn't counter on the edge. I post a vid of some of the run blitzes and the ends were crazy open. JT or Hines could have ripped off some huge runs with LBs over-penetrating.
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