2021 Colts at Titans: Captain Obvious, Unit Stats, TN PFF, Prediction Polls

[EastStreet]

 

The TLDR

 

• Captain Obvious Observations
  • Rush O - Henry is Henry, nuff said. 
  • Pass O - Tannehill is not flashy, but there's a reason why he's PFF's #3 graded QB. Efficient when needed.
  • Rush D - Not great, but very solid
  • Pass D - They get after the QB, but QBs make them pay
  • Misc - OL injuries could tilt things, especially in the middle and left.
  • Interesting - Chester Rogers (WR) and Autry (DE) are both starting for the Titans. Chips for everyone!!
• Captain Obvious Keys to the Game
  • Don't let the top 10ish pass rush in the NFL hurt your QB
  • If you can protect your QB, their DBs are willing to give up the goods like a drunk prom date. If Eason is starting, use your bigs and go high %. 2019 JB game plan like. But let him air some out if the OL is holding.
  • Run for balance, not to avoid passing. When you do, outside left, and right A gap, where they give up the highest YPC.
  • Tackle Henry. He must be tired after running for 180+ last week, right? Missed tackle leaders Blackmon and Oke, you know what you need to do to redeem yourselves. Chop some wood, then lay some.
  • If you play Charmin soft pass D, Tannehill will be ranked better than the #3 QB next week by PFF. Tannehill loves the shallow seam, and will challenge LBs early downs. And Flus... Tannehill doesn't go deep a ton, but don't let him  take Willis and Moore vertical, again.... Nothing good will ever come from it. You have to think they'll try given the film from the past 2 weeks.

 

 

• TN Quick Hits
  • Defense
    • Pass Defense
      • 8th in total Pressures / 11th in Sacks / 8th in sack %
      • 29th in Passer Rating Allowed
      • 28th in Passing YPG Allowed
      • 29th in Passing YPAttempt
    • Run Defense
      • 13th in YPG Allowed
      • 15th in AVG Allowed
  • Offense
    • Passing 
      • 16th in passing YPG
      • 18th in passing YPA
    • Rushing
      • 4th in rushing YPG
      • 8th in rushing YPA

 

PFF (Individual)

 

• O Starters
  • QB Tannehill - 86.2 (PFF's #3 QB)
  • RB1 Henry - 79.6 (PFF's #3 RB)
  • WR1 Jones - 67.6
  • Injured/LP - WR2 Brown - 61.9
  • WR3/Slot Rogers - 53.5
  • I/DNP - TE1 Firkser - 54.8
  • I/FP - LT1 Lewan - 39.7
  • I/FP - LT2 Sambrailo (started last week) - 63.7
  • I/DNP - LG1 Saffold - 60.7
  • I/DNP - OC1 Jones - 57.0
  • RG1 Davis - 52.2
  • RT1 Quessenberry - 76.3
• O Depth
  • RB2 McNichols - 61.2
  • WR4 NWI - 58.6
  • WR5 Reynolds - 65.7 (last season)
  • WR6 Batson - 58.1 (last season)
  • TE2 Swaim - 33.4
  • TE3 Pruitt - 68.9
  • LG2 and OC2 Brewer - 51.3
  • RG2 Radunz - rook

 

• 3-4 D Starters
  • DE1 Autry - 63.1 (leads team with 2 sacks)
  • NT Tart - 79.2
  • DT Simmons - 61.2 (co-lead sacks)
  • I/DNP - OLBa1 Dupree - 49.3
  • I/DNP - ILBa1 Brown - 44.3
  • ILBb1 Evans - 41.1
  • OLbb1 Landry - 61.5 (1 sack)
  • CBa1 Jenkins - 55.4
  • CBb1 Fulton - 61.3
  • SS1 Cruikshank - 68.3
  • FS1 Byard - 73.6
• D Depth
  • DE2 Murchison - 63.1 (1 sack)
  • OLBa2 Adeniyi - 38.6 (1 sack)
  • ILBa2 Long - 59.5
  • ILBb2 Rice - 72.4 rook
  • I/LP - OLBb2 Roberson - 82.9
  • CBa2 Jackson - 75.1
  • CBb2 Borders - 64.3
  • CB3 Molden - 29.8 rook
  • I/DNP - CB3 C Farley - 62.7
  • SS2 M Farley - 61.0

[EastStreet]

 

Indy by 1-6

Henry 100+

Tannehill 250+

Must win

Paye most sacks

JT will have under 100

[stitches]

I don't feel good about this one. I think it has the potential to get real ugly. 

[BlackTiger]

It is must win to me

 

I said Titans by a score though.  Henry gets the 100, Colts get multiple sacks, I have Buckner leading the way.  Not sure about JTs yards

 

Hard to make predictions right now, it feels like the team hasnt shown up yet but at some point this year they will

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't feel good about this one. I think it has the potential to get real ugly. 

 

I just really have zero clue at this point. 

I thought digging into the stats and TN's 2021 preview type stuff might give me a feel, but nope....

 

[EastStreet]

JMV just said Hundley got the majority of starter reps yesterday.

[The Fish]

It's probably a must win (week 3 is too early, even though doing the math says- red alert).

Henry is going to go bonkers, Juilo is going to go bonkers when the Colts try to stop Henry from going bonkers etc.

 

The Colts probably keep it close-ish, but never overly competitive, especially if Wentz doesn't play. If he does and plays well, there's a backdoor to winning. The Titans D isn't good.

 

If this team doesn't get healthy they're going to run the risk of going 1-7, 2-6 to start this year. If you think this place is weird now, let's hope that doesn't come to pass..

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

JMV just said Hundley got the majority of starter reps yesterday.

gross.. I'll say it.

[csmopar]

14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

JMV just said Hundley got the majority of starter reps yesterday.

[csmopar]

14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

JMV just said Hundley got the majority of starter reps yesterday.

 

not that I think or know that Eason is better, but why the heck would you have Hundley work with the starters?! If he was better than Eason, then why the heck was he on the PS to begin with?!

[stitches]

13 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I just really have zero clue at this point. 

I thought digging into the stats and TN's 2021 preview type stuff might give me a feel, but nope....

 

I think both teams looked like they've lost their identity in the first game of the season. We were strong OL-team that played defense that prevented big plays and in both games so far this couldn't be further from the truth. Both our OL and our ability to stop big plays on defense have been horrid and there is a certain lack of rhythm and unified push in the same direction on the team. No idea if this sounds wonky or weird but I have hard times putting what I feel about this team in words. 

 

On the other hand TEN was a team that excelled through the playaction game off of the threat of Derrick Henry runs. They were among the teams that ran the most play-action last year but their new coordinator ran it like... 4 times the entire first game and Henry was hampered by that as well. The thing with the Titans is... they actually still have it if they choose to use it like they showed in the second half of that Seahawks game when they overcame 15 points deficit. That's why I actually trust them more than us right now. There is seemingly nothing stopping them from just returning to their bread and butter and they might have already done it. The game against the Colts will actually show if they have and if they have it will be a world of hurt for us. We won't be able to stop the run and we won't be able to stop the pass off play action. WIth us it's now 2 games that the same problems appear and in some sense get worse ... if our OL cannot handle Tennessee's putrid pass-rush and our passive defense cannot handle the deep ball this will not be a pretty sight for us. 

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

not that I think or know that Eason is better, but why the heck would you have Hundley work with the starters?! If he was better than Eason, then why the heck was he on the PS to begin with?!

 

I mentioned this during camp, but got shrugged off lol...

Hundley is probably the more ready-now QB. Colts have draft capital investment in both JE and SE, so they are trying to develop.

Regardless, it looks like a clown show.

 

[Myles]

Tenn by 14-20

Henry 100+

Tannehill 250+

Must win

Paye most sacks

JT will have under 100

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

I think both teams looked like they've lost their identity in the first game of the season. We were strong OL-team that played defense that prevented big plays and in both games so far this couldn't be further from the truth. Both our OL and our ability to stop big plays on defense have been horrid and there is a certain lack of rhythm and unified push in the same direction on the team. No idea if this sounds wonky or weird but I have hard times putting what I feel about this team in words. 

 

On the other hand TEN was a team that excelled through the playaction game off of the threat of Derrick Henry runs. They were among the teams that ran the most play-action last year but their new coordinator ran it like... 4 times the entire first game and Henry was hampered by that as well. The thing with the Titans is... they actually still have it if they choose to use it like they showed in the second half of that Seahawks game when they overcame 15 points deficit. That's why I actually trust them more than us right now. There is seemingly nothing stopping them from just returning to their bread and butter and they might have already done it. The game against the Colts will actually show if they have and if they have it will be a world of hurt for us. We won't be able to stop the run and we won't be able to stop the pass off play action. WIth us it's now 2 games that the same problems appear and in some sense get worse ... if our OL cannot handle Tennessee's putrid pass-rush and our passive defense cannot handle the deep ball this will not be a pretty sight for us. 

 

I think TN is best when balanced. Both of their games were strange. Henry needs to be successful sure, but TN can't be single threaded if they want to advance deep in the playoffs. Both Henry and Tannehill had stuffed stat sheets last week. That's what it took to beat Seattle on the road. 

 

IMO, they'll try to be balanced this weekend. But balanced doesn't mean they won't ride Henry. Just means they'll strive for a good mix. And Tannehill is perfectly capable of lighting up our seam.

[TimetobringDfence!]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I mentioned this during camp, but got shrugged off lol...

Hundley is probably the more ready-now QB. Colts have draft capital investment in both JE and SE, so they are trying to develop.

Regardless, it looks like a clown show.

 

Tennessee is near the very bottom of the league when it comes to pass D. Granted they play Sea and Ari. But we need to try to hit their weakness and Hundley might run a good play action and scramble better. Eason throws a good long ball, but has 0 pocket awareness. Smith must be hurting still in my eyes or we would roll with Eason.

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I think TN is best when balanced. Both of their games were strange. Henry needs to be successful sure, but TN can't be single threaded if they want to advance deep in the playoffs. Both Henry and Tannehill had stuffed stat sheets last week. That's what it took to beat Seattle on the road. 

 

IMO, they'll try to be balanced this weekend. But balanced doesn't mean they won't ride Henry. Just means they'll strive for a good mix. And Tannehill is perfectly capable of lighting up our seam.

I mean... we had trouble stopping the likes of Sony Michel and Chris Carson in the run game. I would definitely prefer it if they tried to ride Henry to the win rather than pass, but this doesn't mean he won't kill us either. Seattle seemed to be getting whatever they wanted against our DL both in the run game and with the pass. I'm not sure it will be much different with Tennessee, especially when they have better weapons than both the Rams and the Seahawks. 

 

I hope I'm wrong but yeah... that's my expectations for the game. 

[Zoltan]

it's gonna get real ugly if Wentz and Smith can't play

[Colt.45]

Indy 1-6

Henry over 100

Tannehill over 250

Not a must-win

Defo will lead sacks

JT under 100 (i think Hines is going to eat, and maybe Mack)

 

 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Tennessee is near the very bottom of the league when it comes to pass D. Granted they play Sea and Ari. But we need to try to hit their weakness and Hundley might run a good play action and scramble better. Eason throws a good long ball, but has 0 pocket awareness. Smith must be hurting still in my eyes or we would roll with Eason.

 

IDK. If Fisher felt good after the LAR game, he'll likely be back to full snaps, or at least a lot closer.

Pryor played well when he was at RT, so hoping we see him, and no Davenport.

 

If Wentz is out, my personal guess is we see both Eason and Hundley. Eason a little more if RT holds, Hundley more if not.

[Dingus McGirt]

LOL.  Make Buckner a spy...and put him on Henry.

 

[Colt.45]

24 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

not that I think or know that Eason is better, but why the heck would you have Hundley work with the starters?! If he was better than Eason, then why the heck was he on the PS to begin with?!

 

Yeah, it's bizarre. Hundley was effectively QB4 in TC.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Yeah, it's bizarre. Hundley was effectively QB4 in TC.

And he wasn't particularly good either from what I saw.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, stitches said:

I mean... we had trouble stopping the likes of Sony Michel and Chris Carson in the run game. I would definitely prefer it if they tried to ride Henry to the win rather than pass, but this doesn't mean he won't kill us either. Seattle seemed to be getting whatever they wanted against our DL both in the run game and with the pass. I'm not sure it will be much different with Tennessee, especially when they have better weapons than both the Rams and the Seahawks. 

 

I hope I'm wrong but yeah... that's my expectations for the game. 

Both LAR and SSs did whatever they wanted lol. 

The difference though is Tannehill isn't a deep threat like Wilson and Stafford are. 

He likes to throw to the seam a bunch. And our LBs stink, so it's not like he won't have success there.

But.... we won't have to fear the verts as much, so can shorten the field. Should help, just not sure how much. 

If I'm TN, I'd really try hard to go deeper more than usual to keep us from cheating up.

[EastStreet]

Little surprise the line isn't bigger

 

Line: TEN -5.0

O/U: 48

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Little surprise the line isn't bigger

 

Line: TEN -5.0

O/U: 48

That line right now is assuming Wentz still has a chance to play I assume. If Eason is starting, or even worse, Hundley gets playing time with Eason, that line could go to -10 TEN or so.

[richard pallo]

58 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

JMV just said Hundley got the majority of starter reps yesterday.

Me thinks Reich is messing with Vrabel.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Me thinks Reich is messing with Vrabel.

nah... 

I understand the logic, even if I don't like it.

[richard pallo]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

nah... 

I understand the logic, even if I don't like it.

I think Wentz is starting.  This makes Vrabel prepare for three.

[csmopar]

27 minutes ago, stitches said:

And he wasn't particularly good either from what I saw.

We going for that number 1 pick

[JediXMan]

4 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think Wentz is starting.  This makes Vrabel prepare for three.

[Hoose]

31 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Yeah, it's bizarre. Hundley was effectively QB4 in TC.

Another angle on this: they need to get Hundley up to speed in case Eason gets hurt or is ineffective. I have little doubt that Eason will start; who finishes at QB is another matter. 

[JediXMan]

This would be a great week for Rhodes to return lol.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think Wentz is starting.  This makes Vrabel prepare for three.

Reich doesn't come across like the type....

 

And let's be honest. TN doesn't really care who is starting. 

1. A hobbled Wentz..... not scared
2. Eason - not scared
3. Hundley - not scared

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, JediXMan said:

This would be a great week for Rhodes to return lol.

 

Not really our issue though. 

Burnt toast and missed tackle awards have went to Willis, Blackmon, and Moore.

[EastStreet]

35 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That line right now is assuming Wentz still has a chance to play I assume. If Eason is starting, or even worse, Hundley gets playing time with Eason, that line could go to -10 TEN or so.

Regardless, even with a hobbled Wentz, I think it should be at least 7

[stitches]

19 minutes ago, csmopar said:

We going for that number 1 pick

Who are we going to pick with that no. 1 pick? For the first time in years there is probably no great QB prospects. I still need to watch a few of them, but so far I'm not impressed by the ones I've seen. 

[csmopar]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Who are we going to pick with that no. 1 pick? For the first time in years there is probably no great QB prospects. I still need to watch a few of them, but so far I'm not impressed by the ones I've seen. 

No clue. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Who are we going to pick with that no. 1 pick? For the first time in years there is probably no great QB prospects. I still need to watch a few of them, but so far I'm not impressed by the ones I've seen. 

Don't want a QB next draft.

CB, MIKE, FS, or LT

 

[Hoose]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Don't want a QB next draft.

CB, MIKE, FS, or LT

 

Amen.

[richard pallo]

I predict if we win this game we will trade for Ertz sometime before the deadline.

[Yoshinator]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Who are we going to pick with that no. 1 pick? For the first time in years there is probably no great QB prospects. I still need to watch a few of them, but so far I'm not impressed by the ones I've seen. 

Derek Stingley. LSU CB is who I would take. He's a true shutdown corner and his numbers are just ridiculous.