2021 Seahawks @ Colts Part 2: PFF look at Seattle

[EastStreet]

 

PFF Power Rank
Seattle #10 (SB Win 4%)
Colts #11 (SB Win 2%)

 

PFF Roster Rank
Seattle #15
Colts #14

 

Seattle Unit PFF Ranks
OL #19
QB #4
RB #16
WR #11 (PFF ranks the Metcalf + Lockett #6 best WR tandem)
DL #29 (their SS had the most pressures on the team lol)
LB  #2 (I think overrated after losing Wright and adding 2 newbs)
DB #26

 

 

PFF O Tiers
Colts - Tier 4 (Critical Flaws)
"The synchronized foot surgeries of quarterback Carson Wentz and guard Quenton Nelson certainly don’t help the team’s ranking, but both players are expected to be back and feature heavily in the regular season. Nelson has been the most valuable offensive lineman — at any position — by PFF WAR in each of the last two seasons, and he anchors what is the league’s second-best offensive line heading into the year. Wentz represents the real X-factor of this unit, with his range of outcomes anywhere from 2020 disaster to 2017 MVP candidate."

 

Seahawks - Tier 2 (On the Verge)
The Seahawks have a consistently strong offense as long as Russell Wilson is at quarterback, but they do have a dilemma of how best to modify it to fit his unique skill set. The debate has tended to focus on passing volume and whether Wilson has the ball in his hands enough, but maybe it would be better focused on how he has the ball and the types of passing plays the team is focusing on. Either way, Wilson is too good for this offense not to rank this highly, especially when he is throwing to the likes of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

 

PFF D Teirs
Colts - Teir 2 (On the verge)
The Colts’ zone-heavy approach to defense paid major dividends in 2020, allowing players like Xavier Rhodes to revive his career after an ugly end to his tenure in Minnesota. Rhodes posted the best single-season PFF grade of his career (77.3), and went back into the double-digits for pass breakups for the first time in five seasons. He was retained this offseason, and The Colts will look to maintain their status as a defense that is good across the board, finishing top-10 last year in any number of metrics, including EPA per play, yards per play and scoring drive percentage.

 

Seahawks - Tier 3 (Chasing the Pack)
Seattle’s defense has fallen a long way since their heyday as one of the best the league has ever seen, but they still have some elite players (like Bobby Wagner) and are too well-coached to just fall completely off the map.  A season ago they tied for 12th in yards allowed per play (5.5) and were 11th in passer rating allowed (96.5) despite having virtually nothing in the way of pass-rush and steadfastly refusing to use a nickel cornerback because they just didn’t trust anybody enough with the job. Many of those same issues remain, but it also shows how high the floor of this unit should be.

 

PFF Starter Grades (deeper depth for INJs or rotation as needed)

 

70+ Green

50 or below Red

 

QB Wilson 90.3 (PFF's #4 QB)
RB Carson 78.1 (PFF's #8 RB)
RB2 Penny 55.6
WR Metcalf 82.7 (PFF's #15 WR and #2 best deep threat)
WR Lockett 76.4 (PFF's #22 WR
WR Swain 53.4
WR Hart 53.2 (yes, the 2019 UDFA that signed with the Colts)
TE Everett 62.8 (PFF's #21 TE)
TE2 Dissly 66.1
LT Brown 87.3 (PFF's #11 OT) *Q due to currently in a "hold-in" and not practicing
LT2 Jones 54.7 but could be rook/7R Forsythe or UDFA Curhan
LG Lewis 70.2 *Q due to oblique injury
LG2 Haynes 60.0 *Q Knee
OC Pocic 62.4 (PFF"s #22 OC)
RG Jackson 63.7 (PFF's #16 OG)
RT Shell 72.7

 

Note: Officially a 4-3, but plays a lot of 4-2-5
RDE/Big End Collier 59.1
RDE2 Nkemdiche - didn't play last year
DT Ford 81.9 (PFF's #19 DL)
DT Woods 70.3 in 2019, opted out 2020  (yes Al Woods)
LDE/LEO/Rush DE  Dulap 60.3
LDE/LEO/Rush DE2 Mayowa 60.0 (Hyder will likely get reps too)
OLB Brooks 47.6
MLB Wagner 83.2 (PFF's #1 LB)
OLB/ED Taylor NFI last year
LCB Witherspoon 80.2 (some reports Tre Flower might start here)
RCB Reed 73.1
NB Blair 48.5
SS Adams 64.2 (PFF's #10 Safety)
FS Diggs 64.2

[EastStreet]

And just to call it out specifically..

 

Duane Brown, Seattle's highly rated LT, has been in a contract "hold in". 

He is at the facility, but not practicing.

Carroll acted optimistic about the situation yesterday, but time is running out. 

Seattle does not want to extend him due to age. 

He is highly rated/graded. 

 

It would be a huge deal to me if he didn't play. You have to think Paye would have a great day. Given Brown is likely going to be rusty, might have a big day regardless.

[Zoltan]

I'm surprised Witherspoon is rated so high, he seemed like a liability in coverage when he was with the 49ers.

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

I'm surprised Witherspoon is rated so high, he seemed like a liability in coverage when he was with the 49ers.

Highly inconsistent feast or famine type. He's fast and long though.

 

I've read a few things about Seattle's D, or DBs. They've been shuffling stuff. I've seen stories saying Flowers may start over AW. Also questions about if Blair will start and stick at NB (or one of the others taking over NB). But right now, Seattle's depth chart has AW as starter. 

[EastStreet]

From PFF. Highest and Lowest rated rookies per team.....

 

Note: depending on what happens with the LT drama with Duane Brown, Forsythe could be the starter...... He was one of a few (along with the Spencer Brown) that I wanted in mid to late rounds. Forsythe was a 6th round pick.... He was graded 3rd-4th round. Thought we'd grab him in the 4th or 5th

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Highest: Edge Kwity Paye, 94.2
Lowest: TE Kylen Granson, 53.4

Paye looked nothing short of freaky in his limited playing time. With the obvious caveat of “he faced backups,” Paye also clowned those backups. His ability to win with quicks as well as pure power is special — he looks like your every-down starter.

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Highest: T Stone Forsythe, 75.3
Lowest: Aaron Donker, 30.6

Finally, some good news for Russel Wilson. We called Forsythe one of the steals of the draft, and he hasn’t disappointed so far. He fared equally well in the run game and pass protection on 104 snaps this preseason. Forsythe looks like a competent swing tackle who could be a starter down the line.

[Zoltan]

Well looks like Witherspoon got traded to the Steelers, so he won’t be starting

[Nickster]

18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

And just to call it out specifically..

 

Duane Brown, Seattle's highly rated LT, has been in a contract "hold in". 

He is at the facility, but not practicing.

Carroll acted optimistic about the situation yesterday, but time is running out. 

Seattle does not want to extend him due to age. 

He is highly rated/graded. 

 

It would be a huge deal to me if he didn't play. You have to think Paye would have a great day. Given Brown is likely going to be rusty, might have a big day regardless.

Well I hope they continue to have disagreements at least until September 12.

 

Good collation of stuff here to look at.

 

Paye's hands are his best feature IMO.  Even if he failed as a pass rusher, he will be a 1st class edge setter until he retires. Explosive, powerful hands that elevate the pad level of his opponent or knock the other guy off his nut.  I will be very interested to see how he fares against starting LTs.   I still expect a learning curve because almost all rookie Right EDGE players struggle at some point and Paye doesn't have a whole lot of alternatives to the speed or bull rush,  but he is very impressive.

[EastStreet]

17 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Well I hope they continue to have disagreements at least until September 12.

 

Good collation of stuff here to look at.

 

Paye's hands are his best feature IMO.  Even if he failed as a pass rusher, he will be a 1st class edge setter until he retires. Explosive, powerful hands that elevate the pad level of his opponent or knock the other guy off his nut.  I will be very interested to see how he fares against starting LTs.   I still expect a learning curve because almost all rookie Right EDGE players struggle at some point and Paye doesn't have a whole lot of alternatives to the speed or bull rush,  but he is very impressive.

 

I expect a learning curve as well. His preseason game time was limited to only around 30ish snaps IIRC, and were against backup quality guys.

 

I will say, he looks different though from his days at Michigan. More game to his rush. Looks like more than just a power/speed guy now.

 

Time will tell, but yes, I hope Brown continues to hold out, or in, lol.... or if he plays, is rusty as heck.

 

Seattle's LG has injury issues too, so might be doubly good. They also have another contract hold-in with their starting S.

[Nickster]

17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I expect a learning curve as well. His preseason game time was limited to only around 30ish snaps IIRC, and were against backup quality guys.

 

I will say, he looks different though from his days at Michigan. More game to his rush. Looks like more than just a power/speed guy now.

 

Time will tell, but yes, I hope Brown continues to hold out, or in, lol.... or if he plays, is rusty as heck.

 

Seattle's LG has injury issues too, so might be doubly good. They also have another contract hold-in with their starting S.

I'd never heard the term hold in.  Did you coin it?  I've never even heard of guys hanging around camp but not attending practice.  has that happened before?

[Nickster]

19 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I expect a learning curve as well. His preseason game time was limited to only around 30ish snaps IIRC, and were against backup quality guys.

 

I will say, he looks different though from his days at Michigan. More game to his rush. Looks like more than just a power/speed guy now.

 

Time will tell, but yes, I hope Brown continues to hold out, or in, lol.... or if he plays, is rusty as heck.

 

Seattle's LG has injury issues too, so might be doubly good. They also have another contract hold-in with their starting S.

 Old OLs can come in off the couch and perform at a decent level if they are in excellent shape.  Voldheer last year is a good example.  Vet linemen kinda have their stuff down and a lot of their stuff is like an old broke down church league basketball player who dominates the young kids by little cheats, dirty play, and brains.  Old wrestlers are like this too.  

[EastStreet]

32 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I'd never heard the term hold in.  Did you coin it?  I've never even heard of guys hanging around camp but not attending practice.  has that happened before?

Nope, not me.... Guys starting doing it more and more. He's at practice, just not practicing.

28 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 Old OLs can come in off the couch and perform at a decent level if they are in excellent shape.  Voldheer last year is a good example.  Vet linemen kinda have their stuff down and a lot of their stuff is like an old broke down church league basketball player who dominates the young kids by little cheats, dirty play, and brains.  Old wrestlers are like this too.  

I agree, but will be interesting to see old vet vs hungry freak.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Nope, not me.... Guys starting doing it more and more. He's at practice, just not practicing.

I agree, but will be interesting to see old vet vs hungry freak.

Yup, but I am hoping we don’t see Brown till the SB.

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yup, but I am hoping we don’t see Brown till the SB.

I'd prefer rook on rook.... 

[AustexColt]

I believe home field advantage will help us. We have the Surprize Factor. There is alot of tape on Russell Wilson and Seatle, where as there is no tape on Carson Wentz and the Colts. Without TY it is a mystery for Seattle to game plan. The key will be half time adjustments. I hope Reich has two sets of game plans for Sunday. 

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, AustexColt said:

I believe home field advantage will help us. We have the Surprize Factor. There is alot of tape on Russell Wilson and Seatle, where as there is no tape on Carson Wentz and the Colts. Without TY it is a mystery for Seattle to game plan. The key will be half time adjustments. I hope Reich has two sets of game plans for Sunday. 

Agree it will likely be adjustments that win or lose for us.

Hope we are not stubborn with our O game plan.

[EastStreet]

Came across this over coffee this AM when I was trying to find scheme info on us and Seattle. Echoes some of the zone talk going on in some other threads...

 

PFF D Scheme Analysis 

 

"Colts
2020 Defensive Pass Efficiency Rank: 13
2020 Defensive Rush Efficiency Rank: 11
2020 Base Coverage: Cover 3
2020 Third-Down Mentality: Sit back in quarters

 

Though they do base out of Cover 3, with 28% of their snaps coming in that coverage, defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus mixes his coverages a lot. He doesn’t rank in the top 15 in usage rate for any coverage except for quarter-quarter-half; he likes to sit in a one-gap four-down front style without blitzing, hoping to use those four linemen to get pressure.

 

That hasn’t worked well even with the addition of DeForest Buckner. The Colts' defensive linemen ranked just 23rd in pressure rate, and they finished 12th league-wide last season in EPA allowed per play."

 

"Seattle 
2020 Defensive Pass Efficiency Rank: 19
2020 Defensive Rush Efficiency Rank: 10
2020 Base Coverage: Cover 3
2020 Third-Down Mentality: Blitz and play Cover 1

 

Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks will always be a Cover 3 team.  They've never finished below fifth in Cover 3 usage rate in any season over the past five years. But offenses have seen this defense for a decade in some shape or form, so the Seahawks have had to find some changeups.

 

On early downs, they ran Cover 3 at a rate that was 6.4 percentage points less in 2020 than in 2019, and they saw their biggest increase in Cover 2 rate. A lot of those Cover 3 snaps went to Cover 2, which was Seattle's second-most-used coverage, surpassing Cover 1 for the first time in recent years. With safety Jamal Adams in the fold, the defense's third-down blitz rate jumped by seven percentage points from 2019 to 2020.

 

With that said, the Seahawks did not improve their efficiency in those situations, going from an already bad .257 EPA allowed per play in 2019 on third-down blitzes to an even worse .336 mark in 2020. "
 

[Nickster]

Our defense is predicated on the pressure from the front four.  It’s not been good enough.  Very interested to see Paye v starters.  Then Dayo down the line.

 

I expect us to be pretty porous for a while.  I kinda think the D will be average at best.  Hope I’m wrong.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

Our defense is predicated on the pressure from the front four.  It’s not been good enough.  Very interested to see Paye v starters.  Then Dayo down the line.

 

I expect us to be pretty porous for a while.  I kinda think the D will be average at best.  Hope I’m wrong.

 

I agree in principle that an improved pass rush helps the DBs and overall D. But even when our D did get a decent pressure rate 23% is the league median, our DBs still gave up a ton. Case in point was Buffalo. IIRC, we had a 23%ish pressure rate, and our DBs still gave up 300+. 

 

The Colts averaged 23% last year, so not totally bad. Tampa Bay for instance is top 3 in PR% (and of course one the SB), and their pressure rate was 27%ish IIRC. Not sure an extra 4 pressures every 100 passing snaps is going to make our D look totally different.

[Nickster]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree in principle that an improved pass rush helps the DBs and overall D. But even when our D did get a decent pressure rate 23% is the league median, our DBs still gave up a ton. Case in point was Buffalo. IIRC, we had a 23%ish pressure rate, and our DBs still gave up 300+. 

 

The Colts averaged 23% last year, so not totally bad. Tampa Bay for instance is top 3 in PR% (and of course one the SB), and their pressure rate was 27%ish IIRC. Not sure an extra 4 pressures every 100 passing snaps is going to make our D look totally different.

Dad burn it East.  I’m trying to be positive here.  Thats tough for a lifelong Cub fan.  The IU debacle. . . 

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

Dad burn it East.  I’m trying to be positive here.  Thats tough for a lifelong Cub fan.  The IU debacle. . . 

I'm a realist. 

I can be optimistic or negative with some quantifiable evidence or trending though.

[Nickster]

Realistically, I think there will be a lot of disappointed Colts fans this season.  And average line pressure isn’t good enough for our scheme.   It must be excellent.

[JediXMan]

Really hate cryptic tweets after injuries  hope it’s minor.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

Really hate cryptic tweets after injuries  hope it’s minor.

 

 

He went back for individual drills. Hopefully it’s nothing.

[Smonroe]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

Realistically, I think there will be a lot of disappointed Colts fans this season.  And average line pressure isn’t good enough for our scheme.   It must be excellent.

Yes, especially in the first game.  Can’t afford to blitz RW, we have to contain and put pressure on him with four. We know he’s going to pick on Rock or TJ, he has the WRs to beat them.  
 

Im hoping their D isn’t improved and we can play ball control.  

[EastStreet]

The latest Seattle movements....  

Lots of activity around CB. Whitherspoon and Brown were assumed big CB contributors if not perhaps starters or competing to start. Given their run D is good, hope we have a plan to exploit their pass D.

 

09/07

Placed CB Tre Brown, TE Colby Parkinson and CB Nigel Warrior on injured reserve. Signed WR Penny Hart and CB John Reid from practice squad. Signed CB Blessuan Austin. Released TE Mark Vital from practice squad. Signed CB Gavin Heslop to practice squad.

 

09/06

Signed TE Tyler Mabry from the practice squad. Signed G Jordan Simmons to the practice squad.

 

09/03

Traded CB Ahkello Witherspoon to Pittsburgh for a 2023 fifth-round draft choice. Signed G Phil Haynes to practice squad.