2021 Seahawks @ Colts Part 1: Stats Comparison and Matchup

[EastStreet]

Going to do at least 2 parts, maybe 3 

 

Part 1: Stat Comparison/Matchup (this thread)

Part 2: PFF (next thread - later today or tomorrow)

Part 3: Personnel/Unit Matchup + Injury (maybe)

 

Here's the stats comparison

 

Bolded Green: +5 or more position advantage by Colts (good)

Bolded Red: +5 or more position advantage by Seattle (bad)

 

Note: Obviously our passing O are based on Rivers' stats

Colts Offense vs Seahawk Defense
Points Per Game: #8 (27.9) VS  #16 (23.6)
Points Per Play: #9 (0.429) VS #7 (0.339)
RZ % (TD): #21 (56.92%) VS #17 (61.67%)
Yards Per Game:  #7 (383.6) VS #22 (377.8)
Yards Per Play:  #9 (5.9)  VS #11 (5.4)  
Third Down Conversion %:  #18 (40.65%) VS  #26 (45.38%)
Rushing YPG:  #9 (127.0)  VS  #5 (99.6)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: #14 (4.4)  VS  #4 (3.9)
Passing YPG:  #11 (256.6)  VS  #30 (278.2)
Yards Per Pass Attempt:  #9 (7.3)  VS   #16 (6.8)
Passing Completion %:  #10 (66.56%)  VS  #19 (66.09%)
Own QB sacked per game VS D sacks: #2 (1.2)  VS  #7 (2.9)
Own QB sacked % vs D sack %:  #2 (3.39%)  VS  #12 (6.55%)
Passing 1st Down %:  #23 (55.75)  VS  #32 (66.33%)
INTs thrown % VS D INT %:   #10 (1.84%)  VS #19 (2.0%)
Passer Rating VS Passer Rating Allowed:  #13 (95.7)  VS #12 (90.0)

Colts Defense vs Seahawk Offense
Points Per Game:   #11 (22.9) VS #7 (28.2)
Points Per Play:   #15 ( 0.370)  VS #5 (0.444)
RZ % (TD):   #21 (62.96%)  VS #3 (73.68%) 
Yards Per Game:   #9 (335.9)  VS #18 (367.2)
Yards Per Play:   #12 (5.4)  VS #12 (5.7)
Third Down Conversion %:   #18 (41.51%)  VS  #27 (38.42%)
Rushing YPG:  #2 (90.8) VS  #12  (123.9)
Yards Per Rush Attempt:   #1 (3.8) VS  #5 (4.8)
Passing YPG:   #20 (245.1) VS  #18 (240.2)
Yards Per Pass Attempt: #19 (7.0)   VS  #16 (6.9)
Passing Completion %:  #20 (66.16)  VS  7th (67.63%)
D Sacks per game VS own QB sacked:   #13 (2.5)  VS #29 (3.1)
D Sack % vs Own QB sack %:   #11 (6.57%)  VS  #29 (8.24%)
Passing 1st Down %:   #27 (62.39%)  VS  #15 (60.22%)
D INT% VS INTs Thrown %:  #9 (2.51%)  VS  #21 (2.37%)
Passer Rating Allowed VS Passer Rating:   #17 (92.3)  VS  #7 (103.5)

General (not O VS D, or D VS O)

Rushing Play % / Passing Play % (league AVG is ~58.68% / 41.32%)
Colts:  #9 (44.13%) /  #24 (55.87%)
Seattle:  #19 (40.41%)  / #14 (59.59%)

Note: Seattle is closer to the league average

 

Offensive points per game
Colts: #13 (25.2)
Seattle: #6 (28.1)

 

Defensive Points per game
Colts: #2 (2.0)
Seattle: #26 (0.4)

 

Special Teams Points per game
Colts: #3 (0.8)
Seattle: Tied for 15 with 00.00

 

Time of Possession %
Colts: #9 (51.95%)
Seattle: #20 (49.23%)

 

Punts Per Play
Colts:  #7 (0.05)
Seattle:  #20 (0.06)

 

Rush Attempts Per Game
Colts:  #10 (28.8)
Seattle:  #18 (25.6)

 

Pass Attempts Per Game
Colts:  #17 (35.2)

Seattle:  #20 (34.7)

 

Rushing 1st Down %
Colts:  #9 (35.55%)
Seattle:  #15 (31.88%)

 

Team Own Punt Block %
Colts:  #30 (1.96%)
Seattle:  #1 Tied (0%)

 

D Punts Blocked %
Colts: #8 (1.47%)
Seattle: #6 (1.59%)

 

Net Yards Per Punt
Colts:  #23 (39.5)
Seattle:  #2  (45.0)

 

FG Conversion %
Colts:  #14 (84.62%)
Seattle:  #1 (100%)

 

Penalties Per Play
Colts:  #20 (0.4)
Seattle:  #16 (0.4)

 

Penalty YPG
Colts:  #24 (53.5)
Seattle:  #12 (42.5)

 

Penalty 1st Downs per Game
Colts: #18 (2.0)
Seattle: #10 (1.7)
 

[NorthernColt]

Assuming the gameplan will be limit big plays. Gotta lock up DK and Lockett, give them the small gains but nothing over top. Keep Wilson in the pocket and don't let him scramble. Carson can be a scary back too, but their OL isn't great so our front 7 shouldn't have a problem controlling the run.

[EastStreet]

And if you don't have the patience, the TLDR is

 

• Both pass Ds are mediocre.
• Our O stats are good (were good), but a lot of them (passing) are due to Rivers, who is gone.
• Both teams have good run Ds
• Taylor will be tested by Seattle, and Carson will be test our run D
• Seattle's RZ O is elite, while our RZ D is bad... uh oh
• Many of the matchups are pushes.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, NorthernColt said:

Assuming the gameplan will be limit big plays. Gotta lock up DK and Lockett, give them the small gains but nothing over top. Keep Wilson in the pocket and don't let him scramble. Carson can be a scary back too, but their OL isn't great so our front 7 shouldn't have a problem controlling the run.

I'll be posting PFF stuff later today or tomorrow (I'm 90% done), but DK and Locket are one of PFF's better WR tandems in the NFL, and both are considered some of the best deep ball threats in the league. It's going to be a huge test for Blackmon, who struggled on deep coverage. 

 

Their LT is in a "hold-in" situation, and hasn't practiced. He's good though but he might be rusty if they work things out. There LG is banged up, and his back up is banged up too.

[NorthernColt]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'll be posting PFF stuff later today or tomorrow (I'm 90% done), but DK and Locket are one of PFF's better WR tandems in the NFL, and both are considered some of the best deep ball threats in the league. It's going to be a huge test for Blackmon, who struggled on deep coverage. 

 

Their LT is in a "hold-in" situation, and hasn't practiced. He's good though but he might be rusty if they work things out. There LG is banged up, and his back up is banged up too.

I wonder if they almost play cover 3 or 4 to protect against it. Also our passrush is going to be HUGE in slowing them down. Can't wait to see Lewis-Buck-Grover-Paye in action.

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, NorthernColt said:

I wonder if they almost play cover 3 or 4 to protect against it. Also our passrush is going to be HUGE in slowing them down. Can't wait to see Lewis-Buck-Grover-Paye in action.

Pretty sure we're already in C3 more than any other coverage.

 

On the bolded, I sure hope so.

[EastStreet]

FPI

 

Overall

Colts 16th

Seattle 9th

 

Offense

Colts 17th

Seattle 8th

 

Defense

Colts 9th

Seattle 15th

 

STs

Colts 21st

Seattle 8th

[JediXMan]

Last time Colts won week 1 was 2013. Would be nice to finally break that streak this is a toss up for me.

[PrincetonTiger]

Don’t lose your man/zone until the whistles blows to end a play

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

Last time Colts won week 1 was 2013. Would be nice to finally break that streak this is a toss up for me.

I have a feeling.....

 

lol

 

Streak has to end some time darn it.

[Stephen]

Yes tired of losing first game need another 13 -0 start

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Does anyone want the Reich and player pressers from today in this thread.

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Does anyone want the Reich and player pressers from today in this thread.

yes please

 

[tweezy32]

who should i start? lockett vs colts, evans vs dallas and woods vs chicago? which one do i sit?

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, tweezy32 said:

who should i start? lockett vs colts, evans vs dallas and woods vs chicago? which one do i sit?

I would definitely start Lockett. PFF has Lockett and DK a top 5 tandem, and both are considered some of the best deep threats. Blackmon gonna have his hands full. We give up a lot of yards anyway. And both those guys will get their targets as there's a huge drop off at WR after the two.

 

Evans or Woods is hard. Both are at home, and Chicago and Dallas's Pass Ds are about the same. I'd probably go with Woods as I think TomB has too many weapons and will spread it around, and Evans might get less targets. And I think VJ is gimpy so Woods may get a bigger share.

[tweezy32]

40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I would definitely start Lockett. PFF has Lockett and DK a top 5 tandem, and both are considered some of the best deep threats. Blackmon gonna have his hands full. We give up a lot of yards anyway. And both those guys will get their targets as there's a huge drop off at WR after the two.

 

Evans or Woods is hard. Both are at home, and Chicago and Dallas's Pass Ds are about the same. I'd probably go with Woods as I think TomB has too many weapons and will spread it around, and Evans might get less targets. And I think VJ is gimpy so Woods may get a bigger share.

i appreciate the feedback.. is it bad i drafted woods first then evans then lockett lol and i should be starting the opposite of what i drafted them in!!

[tweezy32]

47 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I would definitely start Lockett. PFF has Lockett and DK a top 5 tandem, and both are considered some of the best deep threats. Blackmon gonna have his hands full. We give up a lot of yards anyway. And both those guys will get their targets as there's a huge drop off at WR after the two.

 

Evans or Woods is hard. Both are at home, and Chicago and Dallas's Pass Ds are about the same. I'd probably go with Woods as I think TomB has too many weapons and will spread it around, and Evans might get less targets. And I think VJ is gimpy so Woods may get a bigger share.

i could also start all 3 and sit zeke vs tampa.. ??

[MFT5]

6 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

who should i start? lockett vs colts, evans vs dallas and woods vs chicago? which one do i sit?

start all 3, put 1 en flex

[Smonroe]

While last year's stats do give us some indication for comparison, the game comes down to matchups.  And more importantly, which coach is better at taking advantages of the matchups.

 

My area of concern is with our secondary.  After Rhodes and Moore, the talent drops off considerably.  We can't afford an injury to either guy.

 

We all know how Rock was picked on last season.  He looked bad last Friday, but decent previously.  Still, if he's on the field we know they'll be going after him.

 

I'm counting on Wentz and Q playing.  I think Davenport can hold his own, but may need a little help.  So I'm guessing our O is at least as good as theirs, maybe better with our run game.  

 

Their D isn't the greatest either, especially on the back end.  Going to be a close game.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 hours ago, EastStreet said:

yes please

 

 

[Four2itus]

22 hours ago, Stephen said:

Yes tired of losing first game need another 13 -0 start

To the game or the season?

[chad72]

On 8/29/2021 at 10:57 AM, EastStreet said:

And if you don't have the patience, the TLDR is

 

• Both pass Ds are mediocre.
• Our O stats are good (were good), but a lot of them (passing) are due to Rivers, who is gone.
• Both teams have good run Ds
• Taylor will be tested by Seattle, and Carson will be test our run D
• Seattle's RZ O is elite, while our RZ D is bad... uh oh
• Many of the matchups are pushes.

 

This is what concerns me.

 

Not that there is a lot to be gleaned from fantasy football but one thing I always admired about RW is to find the open guy in the red zone moving around and breaking contain. In a game he throws for 200 yards, he also throws 4 TDs maintaining a high level of efficiency in the red zone based on FF history. I think the game comes down to that, the battles in the red zone. Just make sure he doesn't get there often, that will be our best bet.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[EastStreet]

19 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

i could also start all 3 and sit zeke vs tampa.. ??

TB had the best run D in the league last year. I hate to bet against Zeke, but I'd be awfully tempted to sit him lol.

[IrsaysArmy]

19 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

i appreciate the feedback.. is it bad i drafted woods first then evans then lockett lol and i should be starting the opposite of what i drafted them in!!

Who are your running backs 

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

This is what concerns me.

 

Not that there is a lot to be gleaned from fantasy football but one thing I always admired about RW is to find the open guy in the red zone moving around and breaking contain. In a game he throws for 200 yards, he also throws 4 TDs maintaining a high level of efficiency in the red zone based on FF history. I think the game comes down to that, the battles in the red zone. Just make sure he doesn't get there often, that will be our best bet.  

 

I think they'll start off conservative on O until the game settles down, but I can see them testing us deep and trying to flip the field several times. 

 

We just have sooooo many open questions right now with 2 weeks to go.

[tweezy32]

2 hours ago, IrsaysArmy said:

Who are your running backs 

Jrob and Aaron  Jones 

[JediXMan]

1/10 “NFL Analyst” picked the Colts to win.

 

[EastStreet]

19 hours ago:  Seattle's pro bowl LB Wagner isn't practicing this week after receiving a blood-spinning treatment in his knee joints, but he's expected to be back at practice next week, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports.

[EastStreet]

On 8/29/2021 at 1:27 PM, EastStreet said:

FPI

 

Overall

Colts 16th

Seattle 9th

 

Offense

Colts 17th

Seattle 8th

 

Defense

Colts 9th

Seattle 15th

 

STs

Colts 21st

Seattle 8th

 

Looking at ESPN's SOS and projections

 

SOS

Colts 28th

Seattle 15th

 

Projection (wins)

Colts 8.9 wins (a bit up from earlier)

Seattle 9.6

 

Line and O/U

Line and O/U hasn't moved on ESPN, but a few have moved to have Indy +1.5. I expect it to be Even or Indy as a slight favorite if they name Wentz the starter.

Line: SEA -2.5

O/U: 48.5

[CanuckColt]

I don't know about game 1 of the season.

We never seem ready to play the first game.

 

 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, CanuckColt said:

I don't know about game 1 of the season.

We never seem ready to play the first game.

 

 

 

Gotta break the cycle some time....

 

Hoping Reich has us prepared this year.

[EastStreet]

Per ESPN... 

 

The Seahawks essentially swapped out Ahkello Witherspoon for Sidney Jones at cornerback in separate trades this week. Trading Witherspoon saves $1.5M in 2021 cap space and cash, same as what they'll owe Jones. It nets a 2023 fifth-rounder, which is roughly equal in value to the 2022 sixth they gave up for Jones. Unless Jones is an upgrade and/or there's another move coming, that swap looks like a wash. For now, Seattle's CBs are D.J. Reed, Tre Flowers, Jones, Tre Brown and Nigel Warrior.

 

This is probably good for us. Not sure who will start. Jones coming into a new situation/scheme from Jax. Tre Brown is a rook. Tre Flowers isn't all that good, and has been splitting time at NB. Seahawks team site depth chart has the 1st spot black at this point. Probably won't know till Friday lol.

[Zoltan]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Per ESPN... 

 

The Seahawks essentially swapped out Ahkello Witherspoon for Sidney Jones at cornerback in separate trades this week. Trading Witherspoon saves $1.5M in 2021 cap space and cash, same as what they'll owe Jones. It nets a 2023 fifth-rounder, which is roughly equal in value to the 2022 sixth they gave up for Jones. Unless Jones is an upgrade and/or there's another move coming, that swap looks like a wash. For now, Seattle's CBs are D.J. Reed, Tre Flowers, Jones, Tre Brown and Nigel Warrior.

 

This is probably good for us. Not sure who will start. Jones coming into a new situation/scheme from Jax. Tre Brown is a rook. Tre Flowers isn't all that good, and has been splitting time at NB. Seahawks team site depth chart has the 1st spot black at this point. Probably won't know till Friday lol.

I hope Jones starts, he was getting beat by 3rd/4th stringers during the preseason games

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Zoltan said:

I hope Jones starts, he was getting beat by 3rd/4th stringers during the preseason games

 

Not sure any of the options are good lol.

 

Their run D is pretty good, and their pass D was already their weak spot. I hope our game plan isn't so stubborn, or unwilling to adjust, if our running game can't carry us. I think our bigs and Campbell could have some success intermediate and deep. Just throw it wherever Jamal Adams is not lol. 

[CanuckColt]

On 8/29/2021 at 1:57 PM, JediXMan said:

Last time Colts won week 1 was 2013. Would be nice to finally break that streak this is a toss up for me.

The Colts are never ready Week 1...a loss would not be out of character.

[EastStreet]

55 minutes ago, CanuckColt said:

The Colts are never ready Week 1...a loss would not be out of character.

lost to 3 bad team the last 3 years...

 

perhaps things change since we're playing a good team?

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

lost to 3 bad team the last 3 years...

 

perhaps things change since we're playing a good team?

Let’s hope so.  It felt like we were totally unprepared in our opener last year.  Maybe this year will be different with so much known about Wilson and also how they play defense.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Let’s hope so.  It felt like we were totally unprepared in our opener last year.  Maybe this year will be different with so much known about Wilson and also how they play defense.

Last year, 100% coaching failure

[CR91]

I'm assuming Rhodes will shadow Metcalf. He does better on bigger WRs. Leonard needs to follow Russell everywhere if we want any chance to contain him.