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Scott Kacsmar has Colts barely above .500


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He has the Colts finishing 9-8, and he gives good reasons in this piece 

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/indianapolis-colts-2021-season-preview-and-win-total-prediction/361431/ 

 

On Wentz, he's clearly not a believer, and I have to say he makes some solid points.

 

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With Wentz, the positive narrative has always been to “get him back to playing like he did in 2017.” But if someone gives you one great season and four mediocre ones, you should trust the bigger sample size. The 2017 season is the anomaly in this case, and part of the problem with “Wentz just needs Reich coaching him again” is misunderstanding what made 2017 so successful.

 

Oh and there's more.

 

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Wentz saved so many of his best plays for third downs and the red zone, which boosted his team’s success, but it is hard to sustain that when you have problems with general accuracy and consistency as he always has. Throw in some injuries and apparently an ego that was too easy to bruise, and you get a player who continued to decline to the point where he was one of the worst in the league and traded before his 29th birthday.

 

 

I've not watched the Eagles closely but there're several reasons to sell Wentz.

 

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History shows that putting the offense on Wentz’s shoulders to be successful, especially against better competition, is a disaster waiting to happen. Look for Reich to do his best with using play-action and RPOs while leaning heavily on Taylor and this offensive line to get the job done. It may work out enough to win one of the league’s weakest divisions, but if the Colts ever need Wentz to outduel a Mahomes or Allen or Jackson in January, then we probably already know how that will turn out.

 

 

Here's wishing for a version of Wentz that's the best we've ever seen. Anything less and this division may prove a bridge too far....yet again.

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11 minutes ago, bravo4460 said:

I understand the low estimation of win totals due to the unknowns with Wentz. Hopefully our defense is good enough to keep us in or win us some games if that’s the case.

 

It's a sobering piece. He spoke of the defense too. We lost our 2nd and 3rd best pass rushers. No one hit 10 sacks, only Kenny went above 2 INTs. He also mentions we were top 10 in several defense stats which is good, it was truly a team effort on both sides of the ball but to become elite, you need some players and my worry is whether we have enough elite guys. On defense, Darius has to be better than he was last season, 99 has to be equal or better, Kenny has to be better, and we need another pass rusher to step up BIG time. It's a lot of unknowns and moving pieces, and hoping the young guys grow up.

 

On offense, honestly I'm thinking we'll need every one of those four running backs to boom because i just dont see Wentz carrying the team (and hopefully that doesn't have to be the case_). Also, maybe Wentz finally learns to lean on throwing to RBs. Rivers was an anomaly there though, he loved those guys in the passing game.

 

Either way, training camp is here and my feeling right now is that for the Colts to win this division, we need more guys performing more consistently than they did last year.

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This is not a solid point. This is a false narrative:

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With Wentz, the positive narrative has always been to “get him back to playing like he did in 2017.” But if someone gives you one great season and four mediocre ones, you should trust the bigger sample size. The 2017 season is the anomaly in this case, and part of the problem with “Wentz just needs Reich coaching him again” is misunderstanding what made 2017 so successful.

 

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

This is not a solid point. This is a false narrative:

 

 

Four mediocre seasons? My guess is he's playing off the narrative that Wentz was a top 7-10 QB before last season. He doesn't seem to be a fan at all. 

I was petrified about what version of Rivers the Colts would get last season, frankly i thought he was washed but he came in and showed he still had something in the tank, and he was a legit Hall of Fame prospect. I dont think it's a stretch to say that Wentz has not shown HoF football to this league.

 

It's going to be a curious season with a lot of swinging narratives. I'm more scared about Wentz than i was about Rivers.

1 minute ago, John Hammonds said:

Meh.  It's the guy's opinion.  I hope the Colts prove him wrong.

 

I hope so too. He knows his football though, he's generally a solid read.

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2 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Never heard of the guy.

He's a nobody. Got fired from FO for some not-so-woke tweets. But he's also a guy that has said for a long time that Tom Brady is mediocre.... 

 

But hey, he has a blog and a tweeter-thingy

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Followed football for over 50 years and until this thread, I never heard of the guy.   Why should I care? 
 

And to call all of Wentz’s years after 2017 is false.   Honestly, as the season Ramos up, I read more media who are saying positive things about Wentz.   His bandwagon is growing.  
 

Im not predicting anything other than this should be a good team and they should have a good season.   Beyond that, no idea….  And I’m fine with that. 

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3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Having a blog does not make one a football expert.  It’s 2021 everyone and their uncle has a blog.

 

That was a joke. No one cares about a blog. Kacsmar worked for FO, his stuff and theirs is generally solid. His opinions don't have to be agreeable but I like to read them, can't only read Kumbaya stuff.

And yes, we all hope Wentz proves himself to be a top 5 QB. I'd rather not have Reich coaching a 5th QB in five years, that stuff is exhausting even as a fan.

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I wonder how writers wrote about Ryan Tannehill, specifically the ones with dolphin colored glasses. Not to say Carson will turn things around the same way, but its a possibility atleast. 

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36 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Four mediocre seasons? My guess is he's playing off the narrative that Wentz was a top 7-10 QB before last season. He doesn't seem to be a fan at all. 

I was petrified about what version of Rivers the Colts would get last season, frankly i thought he was washed but he came in and showed he still had something in the tank, and he was a legit Hall of Fame prospect. I dont think it's a stretch to say that Wentz has not shown HoF football to this league.

 

It's going to be a curious season with a lot of swinging narratives. I'm more scared about Wentz than i was about Rivers.

 

I hope so too. He knows his football though, he's generally a solid read.

 

I don't see why? When Rivers came here, he was arguably bottom 5 the prior season as well. The pro for Carson is he has Luck like attributes. Personally not my favorite style but many here would take Luck returning over  Rivers 10 out of 10 times last season. 

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Just now, life long said:

 

I don't see why? When Rivers came here he was arguably bottom 5 the prior season as well. The pro for Carson is he has Luck like attributes. Personally not my favorite style but many here would take Luck returning over Wentz 10 out of 10 times last season. 

 

Most people would take Luck TODAY over 90% of the QBs in the league. There's a reason Ballard called him to check on his retirement status BEFORE signing Wentz, it's a no-brainer.

Rivers was diabolical the season before he came to Indy but prior to that, dude had built a HoF career. Never seen that with Carson. That's the thing. Rivers was sneakily good last year (with limitations and all), that man maximized every ounce of ability he had and left nothing on the table, hopefully Wentz makes the Colts forget Rivers ever existed but from where I'm sitting right now, I think he'll be fortunate if he matches #17. 

 

Day 1 of camp, i'm getting butterflies. Run the dang ball Mr Reich!!!

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1 hour ago, Colt.45 said:

He has the Colts finishing 9-8, and he gives good reasons in this piece 

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/indianapolis-colts-2021-season-preview-and-win-total-prediction/361431/ 

 

On Wentz, he's clearly not a believer, and I have to say he makes some solid points.

 

 

Oh and there's more.

 

 

I've not watched the Eagles closely but there're several reasons to sell Wentz.

 

 

 

Here's wishing for a version of Wentz that's the best we've ever seen. Anything less and this division may prove a bridge too far....yet again.

Who Cares Judge Judy GIF by Lifetime Telly

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8 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Who Cares Judge Judy GIF by Lifetime Telly

 

That's fair. I don't only read the guys who like Wentz. I cannot bring myself to shout 'WHO CARES' at the folks whose opinions annoys me. I still have to take that context in. It's not without merit.

Analyzing QBs isn't easy. There're chaps who thought Brady was toast (including Kacsmar). There're guys who thought Rodgers was toast (including the Packers :D), there're folks who thought Peyton was toast. Rivers, etc etc.

Time will tell, I've learned to take in both sides, and root for the best for this team.

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Don't get too positive fans. Some blogger says it might fail. Who would have expected that?

 

Good thing we were warned......

 

 

 

Just having fun with this, no offense to the OP. 

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3 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

 

That was a joke. No one cares about a blog. Kacsmar worked for FO, his stuff and theirs is generally solid. His opinions don't have to be agreeable but I like to read them, can't only read Kumbaya stuff.

And yes, we all hope Wentz proves himself to be a top 5 QB. I'd rather not have Reich coaching a 5th QB in five years, that stuff is exhausting even as a fan.

Didn’t say it had to be all kumbaya stuff.  I don’t put much stock in these things no matter who writes them and no matter what they say.

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Wentz doesn't have to be a Top 5 QB for us to succeed or even win the SB, he just has to be Top 10-12. The other stuff will take care of itself. It is too early to make actual true predictions but if Wentz is just good, not even very good or great, just good - I find it tough to believe we won't win around 11 games (11-6 or so). Our O.Line is great, our run game is very good, our overall defense is good at worse. I think Pittman and Taylor will have big years being in year 2. Peyton and Luck both had to be a Top 5 for us to contend, Wentz doesn't - Top 12 will do and that is good.

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6 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Four mediocre seasons? My guess is he's playing off the narrative that Wentz was a top 7-10 QB before last season. He doesn't seem to be a fan at all. 

I was petrified about what version of Rivers the Colts would get last season, frankly i thought he was washed but he came in and showed he still had something in the tank, and he was a legit Hall of Fame prospect. I dont think it's a stretch to say that Wentz has not shown HoF football to this league.

 

It's going to be a curious season with a lot of swinging narratives. I'm more scared about Wentz than i was about Rivers.

 

I hope so too. He knows his football though, he's generally a solid read.

 

Wentz was as good in 2019 as Rivers was in 2020, and there's no question he has greater physical ability. (He played a complete season in 2019, by the way. No games missed due to injury since 2018.) The "four mediocre seasons vs 1 good season" narrative has been debunked, but continues to rear its ugly head. It's not true. 

 

You don't have to be a Wentz fan to acknowledge basic facts. He might not get back to 2019 form, much less 2017 form. But there's an obvious bias from this writer. 

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Wentz was as good in 2019 as Rivers was in 2020, and there's no question he has greater physical ability. (He played a complete season in 2019, by the way. No games missed due to injury since 2018.) The "four mediocre seasons vs 1 good season" narrative has been debunked, but continues to rear its ugly head. It's not true. 

 

You don't have to be a Wentz fan to acknowledge basic facts. He might not get back to 2019 form, much less 2017 form. But there's an obvious bias from this writer. 

That's what I don't get in the overwhelming negativity from national media on Wentz. 2020 is so obviously the outlier season in his performances. Both 2018 and 2019 were good seasons for him and both of them were with rosters severely hit by injuries. He dragged that team kicking and screaming to the playoffs and was one of the few good things on the Eagles past their Superbowl. I have no idea why people assume it's more likely for us to get 2020 Wentz than Wentz from ANY OTHER year of his career?! If he was 40 and way past his prime physically I guess we can entertain him not being physically able to perform anymore, but that's not the case with Wentz. He should be right smack in the middle of his physical prime as an athlete.

 

I don't get it... I guess recency bias is indeed a thing and it's contagious. 

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12 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

He has the Colts finishing 9-8, and he gives good reasons in this piece 

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/indianapolis-colts-2021-season-preview-and-win-total-prediction/361431/ 

 

On Wentz, he's clearly not a believer, and I have to say he makes some solid points.

 

 

Oh and there's more.

 

 

I've not watched the Eagles closely but there're several reasons to sell Wentz.

 

 

 

Here's wishing for a version of Wentz that's the best we've ever seen. Anything less and this division may prove a bridge too far....yet again.

Such a bad take to say wentz had four bad seasons . 2019 with practice squad lineman and wrs wentz puts the team on his back drags them to the playoffs putting up close to 30 tds 7 picks .  2018 he played very well before getting hurt 21 touchdowns to 7 picks before being out for the year with injury .    In reality he had 3 good seasons one bad and one up and down rookie season 

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Wentz was as good in 2019 as Rivers was in 2020, and there's no question he has greater physical ability. (He played a complete season in 2019, by the way. No games missed due to injury since 2018.) The "four mediocre seasons vs 1 good season" narrative has been debunked, but continues to rear its ugly head. It's not true. 

 

You don't have to be a Wentz fan to acknowledge basic facts. He might not get back to 2019 form, much less 2017 form. But there's an obvious bias from this writer. 

Wentz in 2019 was better than rivers 2020 . More touchdowns less picks 

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11 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

 

That's fair. I don't only read the guys who like Wentz. I cannot bring myself to shout 'WHO CARES' at the folks whose opinions annoys me. I still have to take that context in. It's not without merit.

Analyzing QBs isn't easy. There're chaps who thought Brady was toast (including Kacsmar). There're guys who thought Rodgers was toast (including the Packers :D), there're folks who thought Peyton was toast. Rivers, etc etc.

Time will tell, I've learned to take in both sides, and root for the best for this team.

I say who cares because while he has valid points, I say this about any season predictions. People on here tend to get bent out of shape if someone predicts a .500 season but will do back flips and scream for joy if someone predicts 11-5 or better.  I’m just ready for the season to begin! 

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13 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

He has the Colts finishing 9-8, and he gives good reasons in this piece 

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/indianapolis-colts-2021-season-preview-and-win-total-prediction/361431/ 

 

On Wentz, he's clearly not a believer, and I have to say he makes some solid points.

 

 

Oh and there's more.

 

 

I've not watched the Eagles closely but there're several reasons to sell Wentz.

 

 

 

Here's wishing for a version of Wentz that's the best we've ever seen. Anything less and this division may prove a bridge too far....yet again.

Time will tell.

 

But I will reiterate once again that we got unexpectedly thrust into QB purgatory with Luck’s untimely retirement.  And QB purgatory is a deadly place for an NFL franchise to be.  Some teams take decades and many, many tries at the position before getting out of it.

 

We’ve not been bad enough to draft high enough to get a top prospect.  And, even if we were, a depressingly high percentage of high drafted QBs don’t pan out.

 

I think Ballard did the best he could with a bad situation that was not of his own making.  It would not be surprising if Wentz turns out to be more like the player he was later in his stint in Philly than the player he was early on.  It would also not be surprising if he plays at a higher level with a better OL and a better running game.

 

Stay tuned and let’s see how this goes.

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9 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Wentz doesn't have to be a Top 5 QB for us to succeed or even win the SB, he just has to be Top 10-12. The other stuff will take care of itself. It is too early to make actual true predictions but if Wentz is just good, not even very good or great, just good - I find it tough to believe we won't win around 11 games (11-6 or so). Our O.Line is great, our run game is very good, our overall defense is good at worse. I think Pittman and Taylor will have big years being in year 2. Peyton and Luck both had to be a Top 5 for us to contend, Wentz doesn't - Top 12 will do and that is good.

I don’t even think we need that.  If Wentz is a top 16 QB with a top 12 defense, top 8 running game and solid special teams we will win a lot of games.   All we need Wentz to do is not turn the ball over and take sacks.  Limit bad plays and let the rest come to him as it’s available.  That will put the team in a great position to win.  No need to “make something happen” until the game is on the line.  

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 Just remember how Rivers looked the 1st 5 games or so.
 The naysayers are likely going to have their day early in the season because there will be timing and touch issues for awhile.
 If we have one of the better ground games, which i expect, and a defense that can give up 22-23 points a game, we will be over .500. Takeaways, field goals, effeciency in the red zone, and bounces of the ball will determine how much above .500.
9-12 wins and lace'em up. 

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15 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

He has the Colts finishing 9-8, and he gives good reasons in this piece 

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/picks/indianapolis-colts-2021-season-preview-and-win-total-prediction/361431/ 

 

On Wentz, he's clearly not a believer, and I have to say he makes some solid points.

 

 

Oh and there's more.

 

 

I've not watched the Eagles closely but there're several reasons to sell Wentz.

 

 

 

Here's wishing for a version of Wentz that's the best we've ever seen. Anything less and this division may prove a bridge too far....yet again.

 

Wentz had 1 great season 3 good seasons and 1 bad one.  

 

With our roster we just need him to have a good season.  He doesn't have to get back to the 2017 form.  2018 or 2019 Wentz works just fine. 

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2 hours ago, luv_pony_express said:

Time will tell.

 

But I will reiterate once again that we got unexpectedly thrust into QB purgatory with Luck’s untimely retirement.  And QB purgatory is a deadly place for an NFL franchise to be.  Some teams take decades and many, many tries at the position before getting out of it.

 

We’ve not been bad enough to draft high enough to get a top prospect.  And, even if we were, a depressingly high percentage of high drafted QBs don’t pan out.

 

I think Ballard did the best he could with a bad situation that was not of his own making.  It would not be surprising if Wentz turns out to be more like the player he was later in his stint in Philly than the player he was early on.  It would also not be surprising if he plays at a higher level with a better OL and a better running game.

 

Stay tuned and let’s see how this goes.

Really he has been good each year except last.  

2017 - 13 games, 60.2 %, 3296 yards, 33 TD's, 7 INT's

2018 - 11 games, 69.6%, 3074 yards, 21 TD's, 7 INT's

2019 - 16 games, 6.9 %, 4039 yards, 27 TD's, 7 INT's

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7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Wentz was as good in 2019 as Rivers was in 2020, and there's no question he has greater physical ability.

 

By what metric though? Other than QBR, the vast majority of stats (posted below and highlighted in blue) favor Rivers and show he was more accurate and so much more efficient (higher EPA/play), which cannot be discounted. Statistically, they were basically in different tiers with Rivers a top 12 QB and Wentz more in that 15-20 range.

 

I mean...Wentz had 64 more pass attempts...and still had less passing yards than Rivers. Even if that was partly on the personnel, if you turn Wentz's 6 extra drops into catches...he's still behind Rivers. 

 

The Rivers-led offense was much higher scoring than the 2019 PHI offense. And if you plug 2019 Wentz stats into the 2020 Colts, the scoring would have definitely fallen off a bit.

 

Fortunately, there's a chance the 2021 Colts get better than 2019 Wentz, so we just don't know yet. 

 

Here are there stats: 

 

image.png.ff7e1a0a4d97e1667d23bb2994e7cf3a.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

By what metric though? Other than QBR, the vast majority of stats (posted below and highlighted in blue) favor Rivers and show he was more accurate and so much more efficient (higher EPA/play), which cannot be discounted. Statistically, they were basically in different tiers with Rivers a top 12 QB and Wentz more in that 15-20 range.

 

I mean...Wentz had 64 more pass attempts...and still had less passing yards than Rivers. Even if that was partly on the personnel, if you turn Wentz's 6 extra drops into catches...he's still behind Rivers. 

 

The Rivers-led offense was much higher scoring than the 2019 PHI offense. And if you plug 2019 Wentz stats into the 2020 Colts, the scoring would have definitely fallen off a bit.

 

Fortunately, there's a chance the 2021 Colts get better than 2019 Wentz, so we just don't know yet. 

 

Here are there stats: 

 

image.png.ff7e1a0a4d97e1667d23bb2994e7cf3a.png

 

 

Now compare their OLs and receiving corps. 

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