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Braden Smith contract extension is done


Superman

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19 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Conklin was damaged and his game had fallen somewhat.
 They took a little bit of a gamble on him.
  He and Smith play a very similar game. Games against Tenn. are going to be doozies!!

 

Conklin did have the injury in 2018, but he had bounced back to a full 16-game season where he put up a 77.9 PFF grade, which is pretty close to the 80.1 PFF grade that Smith had last season, in his best season as a pro.

 

Conklin also had All-Pro nod on his resume from his rookie season, so it was known that he had that type of upside if healthy. It was a great gamble to take, especially at 3/$42M. 

 

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45 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's minutiae, but it's 4 new years and 70M new money. For the purposes of the cap we are losing 17.5M per year not 14.5. They can spread it out over 5 years(14.5M), but if they didn't you could carry over the 12 or so million over to next season(if they spread it evenly).

 

Either way, the contract is about what I expected having in mind the other RT contracts that were signed earlier this off-season.

 

Now it's Leonard's turn and I expect him to get about 19.5 a year in new money. That 2018 draft is becoming expensive. I wonder if Hines will be signed?

 

Assuming some of the new money hits in 2021, the total value of the contract is being spread out over five years. The only way we're losing $17.5m/year is if none of the new money hits until 2022. And that's not likely; he's at least getting a bonus payment in 2021.

 

And this is typical. For rankings and comparisons, we use the new money, averaged over the new years, and that's fine. But effectively, the impact to the cap is based on the total money the player is being paid, over the total number of years of the contract. In this case, assuming these reports are accurate, Smith is now under contract for five seasons, at a total value of $72.4m.

 

For me, that's what's important. How much cap space is he accounting for? 

 

It's the same thing for Ramczyk's new deal, by the way. Reported as five years, $96m, but that's the new money. He's actually under contract for six years, $107.7m. Taylor Moton is reported as four years, $71.2m, but he's under contract for five years, $85m. In their cases, the discrepancy is less pronounced; Moton was on the tag, Ramczyk was on the 5th year option; Smith was on Year 4 of his rookie deal. 

 

I wonder the same about Hines. I'd like to keep him, he brings a unique skill set to the offense, but his market is not well defined. Kenyan Drake and Austin Ekeler are the only real comps, and they have way more production than Hines. If that's his market, we're talking about $6m/year. It can work, but I don't know if we're getting real bang for our buck in that range.

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36 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Assuming some of the new money hits in 2021, the total value of the contract is being spread out over five years. The only way we're losing $17.5m/year is if none of the new money hits until 2022. And that's not likely; he's at least getting a bonus payment in 2021.

 

And this is typical. For rankings and comparisons, we use the new money, averaged over the new years, and that's fine. But effectively, the impact to the cap is based on the total money the player is being paid, over the total number of years of the contract. In this case, assuming these reports are accurate, Smith is now under contract for five seasons, at a total value of $72.4m.

 

For me, that's what's important. How much cap space is he accounting for? 

 

It's the same thing for Ramczyk's new deal, by the way. Reported as five years, $96m, but that's the new money. He's actually under contract for six years, $107.7m. Taylor Moton is reported as four years, $71.2m, but he's under contract for five years, $85m. In their cases, the discrepancy is less pronounced; Moton was on the tag, Ramczyk was on the 5th year option; Smith was on Year 4 of his rookie deal. 

To me it doesn't matter where you put the money. If you put 15 on the current year you are not carrying over those 15M next year. If you put them all on the next 4 years you are getting about 18M a year cap hit next 4 years but also getting 15M carry over. And everything in between it's the same. Whatever way you want to sctructure it, you are getting about 18M more a year on top of what you had before that deal. Whether it's in the form of 18M a year +15M carry over or 14.5M a year, it's pretty much the same for the purpose of available money of the cap going forward - namely 18M a year less than we had before. This was my point.

36 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I wonder the same about Hines. I'd like to keep him, he brings a unique skill set to the offense, but his market is not well defined. Kenyan Drake and Austin Ekeler are the only real comps, and they have way more production than Hines. If that's his market, we're talking about $6m/year. It can work, but I don't know if we're getting real bang for our buck in that range.

No idea... I am still not sure I would want us to spend 6M a year on a player like Hines.

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26 minutes ago, stitches said:

To me it doesn't matter where you put the money. If you put 15 on the current year you are not carrying over those 15M next year. If you put them all on the next 4 years you are getting about 18M a year cap hit next 4 years but also getting 15M carry over. And everything in between it's the same. Whatever way you want to sctructure it, you are getting about 18M more a year on top of what you had before that deal. Whether it's in the form of 18M a year +15M carry over or 14.5M a year, it's pretty much the same for the purpose of available money of the cap going forward - namely 18M a year less than we had before. This was my point.

No idea... I am still not sure I would want us to spend 6M a year on a player like Hines.

Hines is a difference maker and a play maker. That would be a bargain.

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23 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Leonard going to be done soon?

 

 


I’d like Leonard and Q extensions to be for 5 years, more possibilities for team.

 

Plus, my wife’s uncle would say “don’t buy all the appliances at the same time as they all could wear out within the same time frame”. So Braden contract till 2025 with 4 yr extension, Leonard and Q till 2026 and 2027 respectively would be nice.

 

In other words, extend Q after 2021 season, DL now both for 5 years.

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3 minutes ago, chad72 said:


I’d like Leonard and Q extensions to be for 5 years, more possibilities for team.

 

Plus, my wife’s uncle would say “don’t buy all the appliances at the same time as they all could wear out within the same time frame”. So Braden contract till 2025 with 4 yr extension, Leonard and Q till 2026 and 2027 respectively would be nice.

I feel like it's possible we leave the Q extension for next year since he's tied for one more year than Braden and Leonard...

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

No idea... I am still not sure I would want us to spend 6M a year on a player like Hines.

 

I see where you are going with this. 

 

Dion Lewis went from the Patriots to the Titans on a 4 year $20 mil. contract with Vrabel force feeding Dion till he figured out that Henry was the answer. Chargers sign Austin Ekeler to 4 years $24 mil. contract after letting go of Melvin Gordon thinking he could run between the tackles and Ekeler came back to earth from the previous year. 

 

In both cases, a primarily pass catching RB with "some" ability to run between the tackles, when overvalued, backfired for the team that signed him, IMO. I'd have to say the Dion Lewis contract will be the upper limit for Hines' contract based on recent history. I would be fine with that but if Hines wants more, we have to look at FA guys like Boston Scott or options from the draft. 

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40 minutes ago, chad72 said:


I’d like Leonard and Q extensions to be for 5 years, more possibilities for team.

 

Plus, my wife’s uncle would say “don’t buy all the appliances at the same time as they all could wear out within the same time frame”. So Braden contract till 2025 with 4 yr extension, Leonard and Q till 2026 and 2027 respectively would be nice.

 

In other words, extend Q after 2021 season, DL now both for 5 years.

I think smith will be through 2026. You have to count this year. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I see where you are going with this. 

 

Dion Lewis went from the Patriots to the Titans on a 4 year $20 mil. contract with Vrabel force feeding Dion till he figured out that Henry was the answer. Chargers sign Austin Ekeler to 4 years $24 mil. contract after letting go of Melvin Gordon thinking he could run between the tackles and Ekeler came back to earth from the previous year. 

 

In both cases, a primarily pass catching RB with "some" ability to run between the tackles, when overvalued, backfired for the team that signed him, IMO. I'd have to say the Dion Lewis contract will be the upper limit for Hines' contract based on recent history. I would be fine with that but if Hines wants more, we have to look at FA guys like Boston Scott or options from the draft. 

Yup.  Guys that do what Lewis and Ekeler and Hines do can be found in the draft, IMO.  Pay him yes, but not like he's all that special. 

 

Everybody thinks a little fast open space RB back can be Sproles.  Just like some think a 6th round QB can be Brady or a 5th round pass rusher can be Mathis.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

I meant the playing seasons, 2021-2025 seasons. Not when the off season begins.

So what does the contract say.  Does Smith play for the 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25 seasons....and we pay him $72M?  That's $14.5 cap hit per season if its a purely linear structure.   

 

If I'm thinking about this correctly, at the end of the 2025 league year, February 29th, 2026 Smiths contract will be finished, as will his cap hits barring any restructure.

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21 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I hope they are working on Hines too. His won’t be that much.  Maybe just a two year extension then with this year it is 3 total. 

I doubt Hines and his agent are up for a two year extension.    There’s not enough time to make money. 
 

For most players, their biggest bite at the Apple is the 2nd contract.   You’re still very young and in your prime.   Hines will want and likely get 3-4 years.   2 years just doesn’t move the needle much.   
 

Is it possible?  Sure.   But I don’t think it’s likely. 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I doubt Hines and his agent are up for a two year extension.    There’s not enough time to make money. 
 

For most players, their biggest bite at the Apple is the 2nd contract.   You’re still very young and in your prime.   Hines will want and likely get 3-4 years.   2 years just doesn’t move the needle much.   
 

Is it possible?  Sure.   But I don’t think it’s likely. 

He is a running back. No team is going to give him much more then that. Colts could make it a 3 year for 4 total as long as money is mostly paid in the first couple of years. I would be fine either way.

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29 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yup.  Guys that do what Lewis and Ekeler and Hines do can be found in the draft, IMO.  Pay him yes, but not like he's all that special. 

 

Everybody thinks a little fast open space RB back can be Sproles.  Just like some think a 6th round QB can be Brady or a 5th round pass rusher can be Mathis.

Look at your two paragraphs.   They fight each other badly.  
 

The first graph says you can easily replace Hines in the draft.   The second graph mocks  people who think finding a great player can easily be found on Day 3. 
 

Hines is better than you think he is.   Always has been.   You’ve always been downplaying him.   You once said that not only should Hines NOT be on the Colts roster, he shouldn’t be in ANY NFL roster.   A few weeks later Hines returned two punts for TDs in the same game.   
 

Here’s an important factoid to consider…. We took Hines near the top of the 4th round of the 2018 draft.  That means Hines very likely had a third round grade from the Colts.  Chris Ballard thinks highly of Hines.  He can rush, receive and return kicks.   I don’t know why you’re so dismissive of him?   But you always have been. 

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5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

He is a running back. No team is going to give him much more then that. Colts could make it a 3 year for 4 total as long as money is mostly paid in the first couple of years. I would be fine either way.

Why would you want most of the money paid in the first few years?   Why do you care?   And I wouldn’t  want that,  because the salary cap is likely not going up enough until 2023. 
 

You’ve got the RB market all messed up.   Just because teams don’t want to pay most guys more than $10 mill per or do 5 years,  RBs can still get multiple year contracts.  If we don’t, someone else gladly will with Hines. 

 

I don’t see Hines doing 2/10.

I think it’s more likely 3/15 or 4/20.  Ballpark. 
 

You always argue Hines is a valuable piece.  Then turn around and offer him a meh-level contract.   I don’t see that happening. 

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8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Why would you want most of the money paid in the first few years?   Why do you care?   And I wouldn’t  want that,  because the salary cap is likely not going up enough until 2023. 
 

You’ve got the RB market all messed up.   Just because teams don’t want to pay most guys more than $10 mill per or do 5 years,  RBs can still get multiple year contracts.  If we don’t, someone else gladly will with Hines. 

 

I don’t see Hines doing 2/10.

I think it’s more likely 3/15 or 4/20.  Ballpark. 
 

You always argue Hines is a valuable piece.  Then turn around and offer him a meh-level contract.   I don’t see that happening. 

BecAuse you want the players to get paid the most in their younger years. Especially a RB. Being able to get out of it in the later years is important. I believe Ryan Kelly’s cap hit goes down as he gets older.

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5 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

BecAuse you want the players to get paid the most in their younger years. Especially a RB. Being able to get out of it in the later years is important. I believe Ryan Kelly’s cap hit goes down as he gets older.

Everybody’s cap hit goes down as they get older.   Literally, every single player.  That’s a byproduct of basic math. 
 

And given that Hines is a situational back and will get roughly 10-12 touches a game, no one should be worried about his age or stage.   He’ll likely be under age 30 by the time his second contract is up.    
 

There isn’t a problem here. 

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With Hines, it depends on what he (his agent) wants.   He has value, but the RB market is low and even worse for non starting RB's.   If he has his average year (297 yards rushing, 56 receptions for 409 yards 4 TD's)  Ballard may not feel he needs to sign him.   

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7 minutes ago, Myles said:

With Hines, it depends on what he (his agent) wants.   He has value, but the RB market is low and even worse for non starting RB's.   If he has his average year (297 yards rushing, 56 receptions for 409 yards 4 TD's)  Ballard may not feel he needs to sign him.   

I do think Ballard may wait to see what kind of connection he has with Wentz. He was at 800 yards total I believe last season. 

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36 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Everybody’s cap hit goes down as they get older.   Literally, every single player.  That’s a byproduct of basic math. 
 

And given that Hines is a situational back and will get roughly 10-12 touches a game, no one should be worried about his age or stage.   He’ll likely be under age 30 by the time his second contract is up.    
 

There isn’t a problem here. 

Well that is what I meant by it being front loaded. Maybe I just didn’t say it right.

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7 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I do think Ballard may wait to see what kind of connection he has with Wentz. He was at 800 yards total I believe last season. 

I think, in order to keep Hines with the Colts, he needs to not have a great year.  I think Ballard will be in a bit tougher spot next offseason with keeping some cap room.   Rookie contracts are much more preferred over 2nd contracts.   Just depends if he thinks he can re-coup some of the Hines production/talent in the draft for much less $$.

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8 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think, in order to keep Hines with the Colts, he needs to not have a great year.  I think Ballard will be in a bit tougher spot next offseason with keeping some cap room.   Rookie contracts are much more preferred over 2nd contracts.   Just depends if he thinks he can re-coup some of the Hines production/talent in the draft for much less $$.

 

I hope he has a great year like the rest of the Colts if that means we make it or win the SB. It is a good problem to have, which means there is talent at several spots that can win us games and not just 1 position or facet. I always hope all the Colts players play lights out.  :) 

 

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

I hope he has a great year like the rest of the Colts if that means we make it or win the SB. It is a good problem to have, which means there is talent at several spots that can win us games and not just 1 position or facet. I always hope all the Colts players play lights out.  :) 

 

I do agree, but would like to see Mack take allot of carries from him.  

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7 minutes ago, Myles said:

I do agree, but would like to see Mack take allot of carries from him.  

 

If Reich is running someone down the middle and being stubborn about it, I'd rather it be JT or Mack, yeah, I agree.

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15 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think, in order to keep Hines with the Colts, he needs to not have a great year.  I think Ballard will be in a bit tougher spot next offseason with keeping some cap room.   Rookie contracts are much more preferred over 2nd contracts.   Just depends if he thinks he can re-coup some of the Hines production/talent in the draft for much less $$.

Even if Hines has a great year his contract would be easy to manage.   

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57 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Hines had the exact same amount of receptions his rookie year as he did last season.   63

Hines had more impact with Rivers than he did with either Luck or JB.  River's game had an impact on Hines, IMO.

 

Having said that, with the addition of Mack, I assume that Ballard/Reich look at Hines as being more of a receiving option than a RB...with Mack likely getting the backup carries Hines did.

 

Which is what I said said back then.  That Hines might make the roster as a player running pass plays, but if making it as a backup player that takes a hand off (not on a jet sweep), he was pretty below average.

 

And, now that it appears that Hines will be thought of as strictly a receiver (not absolute but more than before)....a guy who gets the ball near the LOS in space......we should compare him to other dynamic short pattern receivers, like maybe Harris.  

 

The competition and contract alternative is not Hines vs Mack or Wilkins..  Its HInes vs Harris or another scat short pattern receiver.  JMO.

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47 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Hines had more impact with Rivers than he did with either Luck or JB.  River's game had an impact on Hines, IMO.

 

Having said that, with the addition of Mack, I assume that Ballard/Reich look at Hines as being more of a receiving option than a RB...with Mack likely getting the backup carries Hines did.

 

Which is what I said said back then.  That Hines might make the roster as a player running pass plays, but if making it as a backup player that takes a hand off (not on a jet sweep), he was pretty below average.

 

And, now that it appears that Hines will be thought of as strictly a receiver (not absolute but more than before)....a guy who gets the ball near the LOS in space......we should compare him to other dynamic short pattern receivers, like maybe Harris.  

 

The competition and contract alternative is not Hines vs Mack or Wilkins..  Its HInes vs Harris or another scat short pattern receiver.  JMO.

Hines probed last season how much he improved as a RB. I don’t think he is going to be thought of as just a WR.

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50 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Hines had more impact with Rivers than he did with either Luck or JB.  River's game had an impact on Hines, IMO.

 

Having said that, with the addition of Mack, I assume that Ballard/Reich look at Hines as being more of a receiving option than a RB...with Mack likely getting the backup carries Hines did.

 

Which is what I said said back then.  That Hines might make the roster as a player running pass plays, but if making it as a backup player that takes a hand off (not on a jet sweep), he was pretty below average.

 

And, now that it appears that Hines will be thought of as strictly a receiver (not absolute but more than before)....a guy who gets the ball near the LOS in space......we should compare him to other dynamic short pattern receivers, like maybe Harris.  

 

The competition and contract alternative is not Hines vs Mack or Wilkins..  Its HInes vs Harris or another scat short pattern receiver.  JMO.

Hines had a very good rook year with Luck, just shy of rookie records for receiving yards. In fact he had the same receptions, just a better AVG last year.

 

I do agree though with you that he's likely competing differently right now. But I'd also say having Mack is likely only a one year deal. So it's really about how things stack up next year. I think the biggest consideration (that may change the dynamics) is how good Taylor did catching the ball last year. If Taylor can continue to be a dual threat, Hines' stock drops a bit. Harris is very limited due to size, and his limited gimmick value doesn't compare with Hines' overall skill package. Harris needs to be able to run routes if he's going to find a long term place on the team.

 

All that said, I'd love to see Hines get some slot reps.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Hines had more impact with Rivers than he did with either Luck or JB.  River's game had an impact on Hines, IMO.

 

Having said that, with the addition of Mack, I assume that Ballard/Reich look at Hines as being more of a receiving option than a RB...with Mack likely getting the backup carries Hines did.

 

Which is what I said said back then.  That Hines might make the roster as a player running pass plays, but if making it as a backup player that takes a hand off (not on a jet sweep), he was pretty below average.

 

And, now that it appears that Hines will be thought of as strictly a receiver (not absolute but more than before)....a guy who gets the ball near the LOS in space......we should compare him to other dynamic short pattern receivers, like maybe Harris.  

 

The competition and contract alternative is not Hines vs Mack or Wilkins..  Its HInes vs Harris or another scat short pattern receiver.  JMO.

You just admitted that you didn't think he was worthy of a roster spot in 2019.  He caught 63 balls in 2018.  

 

Ballard isn't going to commit huge dollars to Hines ,   but the kid has a skill set that isn't easy to replace 

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On 7/28/2021 at 5:40 PM, DougDew said:

LOL.  For any reader who may be swayed by your misinformation, I'll tell them what I said, and more importantly, when I said it, thank you.

 

When Hines was strictly being used as a back up to Mack...you know, ran between the tackles like Mack does...and for which we hate when we run Hines up the gut on 4th and 2....which everybody pretty much thinks he stinks at, maybe except for you.

 

When used like that...for maybe his first three years here, he did nothing to distinguish himself from Wilkins.

 

His time on the roster should have been very short.  

 

Then, virtually the next week after I said that, he was inserted as a punt returner.  And he did well,

 

Looks like he had a role.

 

Now when we got a real QB who ran the short route offense....instead of two consecutive guys who held the ball forever to look downfield, Hines is finally showed that he belongs.

 

But he's still not Sproles, nor ever has been /will be.  He's more Dion Lewis than Sproles.

 

But, please don't tell readers that I said his time on the roster was short, without looking at the date of the situation....

 

Talk about misinformation!  Congrats, that’s a heckuva effort!   Nice attempt at damage control.   Too bad none of it is true. 
 

You’re caught with the first sentence in the second paragraph….   Quoting you: “When Hines was strictly being used as a backup to Mack, you know run between the tackles like Mack does.”   Do you know when that was Doug?  Never!   That’s never happened.   Hines is a situational guy.  Always has been.  Yes, he had a game here or there as a guy with the hit hand like the Thursday night game vs. Tennessee, but those have been the exception, not the rule.   So that time frame…. Never happened, 

 

And you’re caught again when you reference Hines first three years here, as if something changed after those first three years.   Doug? Hines was drafted in 2018.  He's only been on the team for three total years.   This year, 2021, is year four.   Three years on his past.  That’s it.  Sorry.    He gets about 10 runs and catches a game.  About 5-6 rushes and about 4 receptions.  That’s his world. 
 

As for being confused, I think I’ve clearly demonstrated that’s your world.  Whether it’s football you’re writing about or the real world, your posts leave me confused.   But I’m not confused about your Hines post.  It’s become the stuff of legends.

 

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1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

You just admitted that you didn't think he was worthy of a roster spot in 2019.  He caught 63 balls in 2018.  

 

Ballard isn't going to commit huge dollars to Hines ,   but the kid has a skill set that isn't easy to replace 

Hines isn’t going to get huge dollars. His market value will be very reasonable.

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12 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

You just admitted that you didn't think he was worthy of a roster spot in 2019.  He caught 63 balls in 2018.  

 

Ballard isn't going to commit huge dollars to Hines ,   but the kid has a skill set that isn't easy to replace 

 

The skill set isn't really that hard to replace. Guys like JD McKissic and Boston Scott have similar yards/touch...and one was an UDFA and the other a 6th round pick. Give a guy like Scott the same volume as Hines last year...and he probably puts up similar (or even more) production, based on his averages.

 

There are athletic scat backs in every draft. And RB is devalued anyways. There is sort of a range for contracts for players like Hines:

  • Jamaal Williams, who has similar career averages as Hines, got $3M/year
  • Ekeler, who put up 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and has much higher career averages, got $6M 

I think Ballard will bring him back. But even with the cap going up, a 3/$15M deal seems about the max threshold. If he can get more than that elsewhere, Ballard probably lets him (but I don't think he will get it or even get to FA anyways). 

 

I am interested to see if CLE gives Chubb his new contract before the season. He is eligible now and if they don't, then Chubb would be the RB1, but making less than RB2 when he's eligible to make more.  If the Colts do extend Hines, they will face this same scenario in 2023 with Taylor.

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