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Report: Darius Leonard contract is up next


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5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This criticism of Leonard is a little over the top. His 1st 2 years in the league his pass coverage was good and everything else he does = tackling, making game changing plays, and his leadership are great. He had 1 off year pass coverage wise. Someone being critical of Leonard is like someone being critical of Giannis because he can't shoot 3's well lmao . Leonard is our 2nd best defensive player and the leader of the D, he deserves whatever money he gets. People complain we have a lack of playmaker's on this team, Leonard is a playmaker. He made 1st team all-pro last season, not bad for someone who supposedly can't cover?? He was 1st team all-pro in 2018 as well, in 2019 he was 2nd team all-pro.

If u want 19 million a year, you better be elite in coverage especially in this defence and in today's NFL. Warner is abd that is why he got paid. If your LB can cover theTE, then pay him the money. Leonard can  not.He is average at best. Expect the tag.

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2 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

If u want 19 million a year, you better be elite in coverage especially in this defence and in today's NFL. Warner is abd that is why he got paid. If your LB can cover theTE, then pay him the money. Leonard can  not.He is average at best. Expect the tag.

and there he is, how you been doing? I haven't seen you here in a while up until earlier tonight.

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1 hour ago, Nickster said:

This ain’t my point.  The relevant question to me is is this helpful to the team overall spending 20 mil per on a LB with questionable coverage skills?

When he’s an all pro yes.  Those don’t walk through the door every day and letting them get away when they enter the prime of their career gets GMs fired.

 

You are focusing way too much on that aspect of his game it’s like saying you don’t want to re-sign Peyton Manning because he can’t run and thus shouldn’t get big money.  While true that he can’t run all the other pluses in his game way off set that one flaw.  

 

Also, while his pass coverage skills are the weakest part of his game they aren’t nearly as bad as you are making them out to be to try to win an argument.  He’s never going to be elite because of them but he’s serviceable with them and with all the other pluses in his game you can live with that.  
 

Players with no holes in their game don’t exist.  Even the closest the Colts ever had to it, Peyton Manning, had flaws as I mentioned above.  

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8 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

I would love to have access to numbers across the NFL to compare and see where Leonard fits amongst all off-ball LBs to see if he is truly average, above average or way above average and by how much. But in the absence of that I will just compare him only to Warner since Warner is currently one of the pillars of being seen as a good coverage LB

 

So to give an idea on some numbers and how they compare in the first 3 years on average:

 

DL- 78.1% completion percentage

FW- 62.9% completion percentage

 

DL- 8.90 yards per completion

FW- 9.08 yards per completion

 

DL- 5.75 average yards after catch

FW- 5.98 average yards after catch

 

DL- 6.70 yards per pass attempt targeting him

FW- 5.60 yards per pass attempt targeting him

 

DL- 6 TDs allowed

FW- 7 TDs allowed

 

 

My biggest takeaways from all of this is that Warner is indeed doing a considerably better job at limiting catches when he is targeted. To the tune of 15% less passes being completed against him. 

 

However, DL does a better job limiting the YAC and allows less yards per completion as well. 

 

At the end of the day I am not entirely sure how DL's numbers compare to all off-ball LBs, but they compare favorably to Warner everywhere except the completion percentage.

 

It is a big difference and I am not throwing that away. But if DL makes any marked improvement there then he's knocking on the door of being right up there as a coverage LB all while being a better tackler (in volume and missed tackle percentage) having more tackles for a loss, having more forced fumbles, having significantly more takeaways (11 to 6), having way more sacks (15 to 4), having more QB hits (26 to 15), and even having slightly more passes defensed (22 to 21).

 

 

DL deserves at least what FW is getting and it is easy to see why most think he deserves more.

 

He has earned it up until this point. The danger is obviously once he's paid those huge numbers does he continue to produce in a manner that is worth the inflated contract?

 

My guess is people won't think he earns it once he gets the big money but that is because we are spoiled with how good he has been for how cheap his contract has been until this point.

 

I am happy to pay him and Q the big money and let the rest sort itself out. Especially with us not having big $ invested in expensive spots like WR, CB and Edge now and in the near future.

 

 

I haven’t watched Warner much, but one of the things that you’re u always hear about Him is he okays a lot of man and can mirror the best tight ends.  Leonard is almost never locked up in man. Numbers you cite are hard to compare between man and zone.  For 1 thing , most of your numbers are for targeted plays.  In man when you do your job, they don’t get targeted.

 

that’s why you have to grade plays.  It’s almost binary.  Did he do his job that play or not.    Eye test here on each play though.  So imagine a play where Warner runs straight down the seem one on one with Kielce.  No attempt to Kielce.  How do you quantify  that?  There are next gen stats of yds of separation but you again can’t be compare well in zone v man.  

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On 7/21/2021 at 3:43 PM, Superman said:

 

I've been waiting to see these contracts by the Colts, because if there's ever a time to be okay with a prorated signing bonus, it's for guys like Leonard, Nelson and Smith -- young, foundational, core pieces that aren't going anywhere any time soon. But if they do the same Buckner structure -- and he was in that category to me, so the precedent is probably already set -- then it will confirm that they'll never use a big prorated bonus. They'd rather have the flat numbers so they continue to have cap space in future seasons.

 

I'm pretty sure Ballard is going to avoid signing bonuses as much as possible.  He didn't give any signing bonus to Buckner or Kelly.  

 

Glow and Stewart got small signing bonuses.  I think it's possible that was because they insisted upon them.

 

As part of the negotiation Ballard is probably going to avoid the use of signing bonuses as much as possible.  Roster bonuses make much more sense from the team sense.

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36 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I'm pretty sure Ballard is going to avoid signing bonuses as much as possible.  He didn't give any signing bonus to Buckner or Kelly.  

 

Glow and Stewart got small signing bonuses.  I think it's possible that was because they insisted upon them.

 

As part of the negotiation Ballard is probably going to avoid the use of signing bonuses as much as possible.  Roster bonuses make much more sense from the team sense.

 

Agreed. The only disadvantage to the team is that it limits your buying power, especially in a market place where other teams will use signing bonuses and unbalanced contracts to maximize their current cap space.

 

But there are a lot of other advantages, from a cap management standpoint. Especially if a player decides he wants a new deal with a year or two remaining. 

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2 hours ago, Nickster said:

I haven’t watched Warner much, but one of the things that you’re u always hear about Him is he okays a lot of man and can mirror the best tight ends.  Leonard is almost never locked up in man. Numbers you cite are hard to compare between man and zone.  For 1 thing , most of your numbers are for targeted plays.  In man when you do your job, they don’t get targeted.

 

that’s why you have to grade plays.  It’s almost binary.  Did he do his job that play or not.    Eye test here on each play though.  So imagine a play where Warner runs straight down the seem one on one with Kielce.  No attempt to Kielce.  How do you quantify  that?  There are next gen stats of yds of separation but you again can’t be compare well in zone v man.  

This is all 100% true but is also why you can't fault DL compared to Warner

 

They have 100% different responsibilities.

 

I'd be very curious to compare how often DL is in man vs zone compared to FW

 

I do know two years ago the Colts were in the bottom10 in the NFL in frequency of man to man defense.

 

If DL is constantly in zone and Warner is having more man to man duties then comparing their numbers becomes even more difficult.

 

Also agreed on your grading play by play concept and if we look at that a place like PFF (which i recognize has their goods and bads) pretty much says how good DL is.

 

Heading into last year they had DL ranked 3rd and FW 11th in the league.

 

After last year they have FW ranked 2nd and DL 6th.

 

The biggest nugget regarding their play by play ranking of DL that I take away is:

 

"In three NFL seasons, Darius Leonard doesn’t have a bad PFF grade in any facet of play in any single season, which is a remarkable level of consistency at a position that is routinely exploited by modern offenses."

 

And before last year (when DL had his worst year in coverage and FW had his best), PFF said after years 1 and 2 that "Leonard has posted grades of 75.0 or higher as a run defender, pass-rusher and coverage defender since 2018 — joining Wagner and the next guy on this list (Demario Davis) as the only two linebackers to do so."

 

All I am getting at here is that advanced stats and basic stats all seem to say the similar thing: Leonard is above average in every facet of the game and as a result is seen as one of the top LBs around and that includes his coverage in the scheme that he is asked to play.

 

That is kind of all I/we can ask for and of him.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

This is all 100% true but is also why you can't fault DL compared to Warner

 

I honestly don't understand why this is so controversial. They're both really, really good. Warner does different things in coverage, and is a better coverage defender. That doesn't mean Leonard is bad in coverage. Leonard gets his hands on passes even when he misses his keys in coverage, because of his range and length.

 

Same thing for tackling. Warner is more of a knock down tackler, and he's a little more stout at the point of contact, while Leonard is more of a dragdown tackler. But Leonard's length gives him more range, and he probably gets dinged for more missed tackles just because he's able to engage with more ball carriers than a player with lesser length would. He blitzes and rushes more effectively, also.

 

But they're both really, really good. Same tier, IMO. Most people expected their contract values to be based off one another, whoever went second would get a slightly bigger contract in one way or another. That's just contract negotiations, which isn't the same as player ability, or even value to their respective teams. Any discussions about their differences doesn't make one better or worse than the other.

 

What kind of hurts is that we realistically could have had both. We drafted Tyquan Lewis at #64, Warner went at #70. What a LB corps that would be, reminiscent of the Niners with Willis and Bowman. 

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I honestly don't understand why this is so controversial. They're both really, really good. Warner does different things in coverage, and is a better coverage defender. That doesn't mean Leonard is bad in coverage. Leonard gets his hands on passes even when he misses his keys in coverage, because of his range and length.

 

Same thing for tackling. Warner is more of a knock down tackler, and he's a little more stout at the point of contact, while Leonard is more of a dragdown tackler. But Leonard's length gives him more range, and he probably gets dinged for more missed tackles just because he's able to engage with more ball carriers than a player with lesser length would. He blitzes and rushes more effectively, also.

 

But they're both really, really good. Same tier, IMO. Most people expected their contract values to be based off one another, whoever went second would get a slightly bigger contract in one way or another. That's just contract negotiations, which isn't the same as player ability, or even value to their respective teams. Any discussions about their differences doesn't make one better or worse than the other.

 

What kind of hurts is that we realistically could have had both. We drafted Tyquan Lewis at #64, Warner went at #70. What a LB corps that would be, reminiscent of the Niners with Willis and Bowman. 

All true

 

I am more-so standing up for DL when anyone comes at him as not being good in coverage because really that is not what the narrative seems to be.

 

And he was always going to lumped in with Warner and after they re-set the market Roquon Smith and then Devin White will likely surpass them on their next contracts. So I am all for it.

 

I would also say to your points that even despite everything you said about DL vs FW, I believe DL actually has a better tackling percentage and lower missed tackle percentage too which is even more impressive.

 

Either way, it will be fun to see how he and the defense play this year.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

All true

 

I am more-so standing up for DL when anyone comes at him as not being good in coverage because really that is not what the narrative seems to be.

 

And he was always going to lumped in with Warner and after they re-set the market Roquon Smith and then Devin White will likely surpass them on their next contracts. So I am all for it.

 

I would also say to your points that even despite everything you said about DL vs FW, I believe DL actually has a better tackling percentage and lower missed tackle percentage too which is even more impressive.

 

Either way, it will be fun to see how he and the defense play this year.

 

You might be right on tackling percentages, I was more thinking of raw numbers. Either way, my point was more than they are different, but both still really good, so there's little point in playing them against each other.

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18 hours ago, coming on strong said:

i love leonard but i walk take warner over him just for the coverage .   we only rush 4 and barely blitz plus we got killed in coverage last year in the middle of the field with walker getting destroyed and leonard struggling a bit also

Leonard is WILL and Warner is MIKE. I think either player could play either position. Overall I agree that Warner has the higher upside. But I'd just be happy with improvement at MIKE. Not sure Oke is the answer. He's got to improve, or I assume we'll be looking next draft. LBers, except the top tier, aren't overly expensive, so wouldn't rule out FA either. I also think our scheme might ask a little too much from LBs since we started doing more rip/liz stuff. I've not been all that high on our scheme in general the last couple years.

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41 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Leonard is WILL and Warner is MIKE. I think either player could play either position. Overall I agree that Warner has the higher upside. But I'd just be happy with improvement at MIKE. Not sure Oke is the answer. He's got to improve, or I assume we'll be looking next draft. LBers, except the top tier, aren't overly expensive, so wouldn't rule out FA either. I also think our scheme might ask a little too much from LBs since we started doing more rip/liz stuff. I've not been all that high on our scheme in general the last couple years.

 

See that's the thing for me.  That's why I don't feel very good about  Leonard getting so much of the limited pie.  The Will has to take the #2 vertical in a lot of those Rip/Liz calls, and that is not a great spot for us, especially with the weakness of JB helping over the top.   JB could and boy do we need him to improve.

 

And this takes the Will out of the trash where DL excels.  

 

I still think they are all over the place.  They don't have the coverage LBs to do what they want to do IMO.  If they think Oke can cover the deep middle in Tampa 2, then we'd be in business a little.

 

I fear for this Defense this season. I really think it's going to be rough.  Then in 2022 if the plan is going to work, it will be a fun downhill T2/C3 Rip/Liz type of really difficult defense to read.  That will depend on a number of factors coming together, indluding the necessity of our Dline with all the investment to become a nickname type of d line, JB's development, DL getting better and oke or someone else being excellent in coverage, and RYS or someone else developing.

 

Lot of ifs, but if it does come together it will be fun to watch.

 

I think the complaints you have are largely because of limited personnel.  They want to do stuff , but don't yet have the people to do it well IMO>

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2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

See that's the thing for me.  That's why I don't feel very good about  why  The Will has to take the #2 vertical in a lot of those Rip/Liz calls, and that is not a great spot for us, especially with the weakness of JB helping over the top.   He could and boy do we need him to improve.

 

And this takes the Will out of the trash where DL excels.  

 

I still think they are all over the place.  They don't have the coverage LBs to do what they want to do IMO.  If they think Oke can cover the deep middle in Tampa 2, then we'd be in business a little.

 

I fear for this Defense this season. I really think it's going to be rough.  Then in 2022 if the plan is going to work, it will be a fun downhill T2/C3 Rip/Liz type of really difficult defense to read.  That will depend on a number of factors coming together, indluding the necessity of our Dline with all the investment to become a nickname type of d line, JB's development, DL getting better and oke or someone else being excellent in coverage, and RYS or someone else developing.

 

Lot of ifs, but if it does come together it will be fun to watch.

 

I think the complaints you have are largely because of limited personnel.  They want to do stuff , but don't yet have the people to do it well IMO>

 

I do agree we seem to be all over the place at times. 

Overall, if they don't have the personnel, then they simply need to tweak the scheme to better fit what they have. 

I have zero clue what our identity is on D right now.

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14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I do agree we seem to be all over the place at times. 

Overall, if they don't have the personnel, then they simply need to tweak the scheme to better fit what they have. 

I have zero clue what our identity is on D right now.

 

 I've said elsewhere, that by the 2nd half of the season, we will have a pretty good idea if this thing is going to work or not. If it shows signs of being good in the 2nd half, I think it will be a borderline great Defense going into 2022.

 

If we look as bad as I think we could in the 1st half in the 2nd, then it's time to abandon ship.  

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14 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Why?

We lost most of our sacks and didn’t replace them.  Wouldn’t you be surprised to see Paye as a three down guy to start?  Days may play in 2nd half.  I don’t expect a Buckner to be better, might have a stat burst.

 

Oke hasn’t done much.  Does Rhodes progress back to getting older play?  Probably some.  I liked RYS but eesh.  Blackmon must improve over the top.  It will be trial by fire first couple months too.  Excellent, very different schemes.

 

we were exposed quite often last year and have at least as many questions as answers IMo.

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

We lost most of our sacks and didn’t replace them.  Wouldn’t you be surprised to see Paye as a three down guy to start?  Days may play in 2nd half.  I don’t expect a Buckner to be better, might have a stat burst.

 

Oke hasn’t done much.  Does Rhodes progress back to getting older play?  Probably some.  I liked RYS but eesh.  Blackmon must improve over the top.  It will be trial by fire first couple months too.  Excellent, very different schemes inoffenses 

 

I think Paye will be mostly a pass rush specialist at first. Turay as well. Lewis and Muhammad should start. Rochelle should fit in somewhere. 

 

I don't think Houston and Autry were good pass rushers. They got the sacks because someone had to, but it won't be hard to replicate their rush. Turay and Paye have much more upside at this point, IMO. I think any impact to the defense would be felt more in the run game, not the pass rush. In all, I think the DL should be fine, potentially better if Turay gets going.

 

I like Okereke, I'm eager to see him step up. There are questions at corner, but that's kind of the same as last year, and mostly dependent on the pass rush. 

 

Just seems like people are convinced the defense is going to start out rough, I guess because we lost Autry, Houston, and Walker. I didn't see those guys as difference makers, and I think their replacements can fill their shoes without too much trouble. What we really need is for their replacements to be better than they were, and I assume that's the hope from the staff. Turay/Paye should be better than Houston/Autry, Okereke should be better than Walker (overall; Walker brought a lot to the table, but had limitations in pass defense). 

 

We'll see what happens.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think Paye will be mostly a pass rush specialist at first. Turay as well. Lewis and Muhammad should start. Rochelle should fit in somewhere. 

 

I don't think Houston and Autry were good pass rushers. They got the sacks because someone had to, but it won't be hard to replicate their rush. Turay and Paye have much more upside at this point, IMO. I think any impact to the defense would be felt more in the run game, not the pass rush. In all, I think the DL should be fine, potentially better if Turay gets going.

 

I like Okereke, I'm eager to see him step up. There are questions at corner, but that's kind of the same as last year, and mostly dependent on the pass rush. 

 

Just seems like people are convinced the defense is going to start out rough, I guess because we lost Autry, Houston, and Walker. I didn't see those guys as difference makers, and I think their replacements can fill their shoes without too much trouble. What we really need is for their replacements to be better than they were, and I assume that's the hope from the staff. Turay/Paye should be better than Houston/Autry, Okereke should be better than Walker (overall; Walker brought a lot to the table, but had limitations in pass defense). 

 

We'll see what happens.

For what it’s worth….

 

All the stories I’ve read….  The ones where coaches and front office are quoted off the record, all say they believe Paye starts at RDE from Day One.   Is it possible you’re right?   Sure.  But I don’t think it’s likely.   The staff thinks about Paye the same way they felt about Nelson and Kelly.  Same for Dayo, next year.  
 

Not sure why you think what you do about Houston and Autry?  Did you read something?   I haven’t seen anything close to that from anyone.   Doesn’t mean you’re wrong, just saying. 

 

Look forward to your response….  
 

 

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth….

 

All the stories I’ve read….  The ones where coaches and front office are quoted off the record, all say they believe Paye starts at RDE from Day One.   Is it possible you’re right?   Sure.  But I don’t think it’s likely.   The staff thinks about Paye the same way they felt about Nelson and Kelly.  Same for Dayo, next year.  
 

Not sure why you think what you do about Houston and Autry?  Did you read something?   I haven’t seen anything close to that from anyone.   Doesn’t mean you’re wrong, just saying. 

 

Look forward to your response….  

 

It would be great if Paye starts right away. JMO, I think a rookie pass rusher tends to be overwhelmed and needs to be rotated and ramped up gradually. Whatever their plan for him, I'm sure it will be based on giving him the best chance to succeed, not just in Year 1, but over the next decade.

 

As for Houston/Autry, what thoughts exactly are you asking about? 

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10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It would be great if Paye starts right away. JMO, I think a rookie pass rusher tends to be overwhelmed and needs to be rotated and ramped up gradually. Whatever their plan for him, I'm sure it will be based on giving him the best chance to succeed, not just in Year 1, but over the next decade.

 

As for Houston/Autry, what thoughts exactly are you asking about? 

You said you didn’t think Houston and Autry were good pass rushers.   That stopped me in my tracks. 

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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You said you didn’t think Houston and Autry were good pass rushers.   That stopped me in my tracks. 

 

I think they were average last year. Autry is 31, Houston is 32. I don't expect either of them to get better, more likely they regress. Neither of them command extra attention from the offense. They were, to a notable extent, beneficiaries of playing next to a top five interior DL.

 

They're good players with nice production. I don't think it's hard to find players to take their place on this roster. And in Autry's case, for $7m/year (and Holder reported that the Colts tried to match, but TN offered more guaranteed in Year 2), replacing him can be very cost effective. Houston is still a FA, although that ship has probably sailed for the Colts, but if we have an early injury, I assume he's on the list of players to call.

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38 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think Paye will be mostly a pass rush specialist at first. Turay as well. Lewis and Muhammad should start. Rochelle should fit in somewhere. 

 

I don't think Houston and Autry were good pass rushers. They got the sacks because someone had to, but it won't be hard to replicate their rush. Turay and Paye have much more upside at this point, IMO. I think any impact to the defense would be felt more in the run game, not the pass rush. In all, I think the DL should be fine, potentially better if Turay gets going.

 

I like Okereke, I'm eager to see him step up. There are questions at corner, but that's kind of the same as last year, and mostly dependent on the pass rush. 

 

Just seems like people are convinced the defense is going to start out rough, I guess because we lost Autry, Houston, and Walker. I didn't see those guys as difference makers, and I think their replacements can fill their shoes without too much trouble. What we really need is for their replacements to be better than they were, and I assume that's the hope from the staff. Turay/Paye should be better than Houston/Autry, Okereke should be better than Walker (overall; Walker brought a lot to the table, but had limitations in pass defense). 

 

We'll see what happens.

Paye will most likely be a 1st and 2nd down player man.  He’s raw in the rush.  
 

turay is a major xfactor

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think they were average last year. Autry is 31, Houston is 32. I don't expect either of them to get better, more likely they regress. Neither of them command extra attention from the offense. They were, to a notable extent, beneficiaries of playing next to a top five interior DL.

 

They're good players with nice production. I don't think it's hard to find players to take their place on this roster. And in Autry's case, for $7m/year (and Holder reported that the Colts tried to match, but TN offered more guaranteed in Year 2), replacing him can be very cost effective. Houston is still a FA, although that ship has probably sailed for the Colts, but if we have an early injury, I assume he's on the list of players to call.

Well………..

 

I think calling them average is fair.    But I also think it’s not the same as saying they weren’t very good.    I don’t think those two comments are interchangeable.    Just sayin. 

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

Paye will most likely be a 1st and 2nd down player man.  He’s raw in the rush.  

 

I disagree. He's raw, but capable, and they need to get him up to speed as a pass rusher. 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

Well………..

 

I think calling them average is fair.    But I also think it’s not the same as saying they weren’t very good.    I don’t think those two comments are interchangeable.    Just sayin. 

 

My point was that I don't think it will be difficult to replace their impact and production. No disrespect meant to either player. And of course, that means Turay, Lewis, Rochelle and Paye have to get the job done.

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46 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I disagree. He's raw, but capable, and they need to get him up to speed as a pass rusher. 

Well supe what I’ve been reading is he’s stout v the run already.  And undeveloped as a pass rusher.  But we will see soon.

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57 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I disagree. He's raw, but capable, and they need to get him up to speed as a pass rusher. 

Just turnabout.  What makes you think,they will start Paye as a pass rush specialist?  Why do you think that?  I haven’t seen anything to suggest that.  He’s a class edge setter already.  
 

Not saying it can’t happen but it would be weird given his profile,

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22 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Just turnabout.  What makes you think,they will start Paye as a pass rush specialist?  Why do you think that?  I haven’t seen anything to suggest that.  He’s a class edge setter already.  
 

Not saying it can’t happen but it would be weird given his profile,

 

It's my thinking, based on how he plays, his traits, and what we need from him.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

My point was that I don't think it will be difficult to replace their impact and production. No disrespect meant to either player. And of course, that means Turay, Lewis, Rochelle and Paye have to get the job done.

My guess…….

 

Paye:   6 sacks

Lewis:   6 sacks

Turay:    6 sacks

Muhammed:   4 sacks

Rochelle:      4 sacks

Banogu:      4 sacks.  (Assuming he makes the team)

 

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14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

My guess…….

 

Paye:   6 sacks

Lewis:   6 sacks

Turay:    6 sacks

Muhammed:   4 sacks

Rochelle:      4 sacks

Banogu:      4 sacks.  (Assuming he makes the team)

 

That would replace what we lost from Houston and Autry, even without Banogu. I'm hoping for the group of Paye, Lewis and Turay to produce two guys who can get 8-10 sacks a piece. We'll also get some blitz production from Moore and Leonard.

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9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That would replace what we lost from Houston and Autry, even without Banogu. I'm hoping for the group of Paye, Lewis and Turay to produce two guys who can get 8-10 sacks a piece. We'll also get some blitz production from Moore and Leonard.

I think some of the guys I have predicted for 6 sacks, might get as many as 7-8.    I just don’t see anyone getting 9-10.   I think it’s possible, but not likely.   Even in a 17 game season.    
 

Boy, I’d love to be wrong to the upside!   But my predictions typically run conservative.   

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24 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think some of the guys I have predicted for 6 sacks, might get as many as 7-8.    I just don’t see anyone getting 9-10.   I think it’s possible, but not likely.   Even in a 17 game season.    
 

Boy, I’d love to be wrong to the upside!   But my predictions typically run conservative.   

 

Mine too. I wasn't even considering the 17 game season. I'm not necessarily predicting, more talking about what I hope we see from those guys.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

It's my thinking, based on how he plays, his traits, and what we need from him.

I just don’t see us taking an edge setting beast v. The run and turning him in to a situational pass rusher which he isn’t particularly effective at.  Strange opinion IMO.

 

guys with raw rush skills always take time to develop.

 

Paye is like Clowney from what I’m seeing,  super solid taking up blocks and setting a hard edge while not getting home very often.  Crazy athleticism.  We need this type of gut keeping our backers clean but you guys thinking he’s going to come in and be effective in the rush right away are going to be severely disappointed most likely.  
 

turay will be the 3rd down guy probably.  
 

 

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13 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Why?

My worry for this defense - pass defense. We were bottom 10 pass-coverage unit last year and we are returning the same unit + Marvell Tell. We were bottom 10 pass-rush unit in the league last year and we replaced our vet starters with youth that has a lot to prove. None of the EDGE defenders on this roster have been starters in the NFL and we are relying a ton on a rookie to man up the right side. 

 

I guess the hope comes from where the worry comes - the youth. It's possible our young DBs and pass-rushers take steps forward and improve our pass-defense in general.

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56 minutes ago, stitches said:

My worry for this defense - pass defense. We were bottom 10 pass-coverage unit last year and we are returning the same unit + Marvell Tell. We were bottom 10 pass-rush unit in the league last year and we replaced our vet starters with youth that has a lot to prove. None of the EDGE defenders on this roster have been starters in the NFL and we are relying a ton on a rookie to man up the right side. 

 

I guess the hope comes from where the worry comes - the youth. It's possible our young DBs and pass-rushers take steps forward and improve our pass-defense in general.


This sums it up for me. Ballard has done a great job bringing in “star” power. He is a very good GM.  Now his players are stepping into prominent roles at key positions.  A lot of resources have been used on the d-line and secondary and they have been developing the past few years. We are about to see if he is a great GM. 

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I may have a different view on Paye

 

I think he may actually do very well, even this year

 

Not pro bowl, but 8-10 sacks

 

4.6 ish forty

 

He lifted the same number of reps as one of the known "strongmen" Teven Jenkins G that I also liked

 

Strong AND fast

 

Its been reported that he ran a 3 cone that was faster than many CBs (He didnt run a 3 cone at his pro day)

 

Lastly, as I have posted before, he was asked to read and react in Michigan's defense.

 

That means start stop, then get going

 

In this defense, he gets to explode into the backfield

 

I think he will be special......

 

I will be 'sporting" the PAYE 51 Jersey at the Tennesee game in Sept

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, stitches said:

My worry for this defense - pass defense. We were bottom 10 pass-coverage unit last year and we are returning the same unit + Marvell Tell. We were bottom 10 pass-rush unit in the league last year and we replaced our vet starters with youth that has a lot to prove. None of the EDGE defenders on this roster have been starters in the NFL and we are relying a ton on a rookie to man up the right side. 

 

I guess the hope comes from where the worry comes - the youth. It's possible our young DBs and pass-rushers take steps forward and improve our pass-defense in general.

 

By what metrics?

 

I get being concerned/worried. There are a lot of unknowns, and a lot left to be proved. I asked the question initially because to some, it's a foregone conclusion that the defense is going to start the season playing poorly.

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