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Just how bad and injured was Wentz's supporting cast last year?


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We all understand that the Eagles were a mess last year and they didn't do Wentz any favors. Wentz tried his best to try to keep the titanic from sinking, but unfortunately he sunk with the ship and was ultimately blamed for it. 

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25 minutes ago, CR91 said:

We all understand that the Eagles were a mess last year and they didn't do Wentz any favors. Wentz tried his best to try to keep the titanic from sinking, but unfortunately he sunk with the ship and was ultimately blamed for it. 

Yup, but I don't think a lot of folks understand just how bad it was. Not sure I've ever seen so much impact to both OL and pass catchers.

 

Not that I'm trying to say Wentz will be an All Pro this year or anything, but I do believe he stands quite a fair chance to be 8-12ish in 2021. 

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That has been my mode of thinking and a reason for my Wentz for MVP hype :D it's a bit tongue in cheek, but seriously - I have no idea why people assume the season that is clear as day outlier in his performance is now the norm. IMO his 2017-2019 form is much more reasonable to expect than 2020.

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

For those interested in the detail on Philly last year....... take a read.... There's very little subjective info or opinion below. But there is some sarcasm in the "honest questions" section.

 

Anyway, there's lots of reason to expect Wentz to be better in Indy. In short, every single aspect (OL, pass catching, D, and coaching) was a dumpster fire last year. Saying it was "a mess" really doesn't do it justice. Perhaps, a mess, in a dumpster, and on fire... 

 

  • OL - lets start here...
    • In summary, in terms of starters
      • Assumed starters played only 37% of snaps
      • LT - gone for the year - played 0% of snaps
      • LG - missed about half the year - played 52% of snaps
      • C - was the only constant - played 99.56% of snaps
      • RG - gone for the year - played 0% of snaps
      • RT - missed over half the year - played only 35.75% of snaps
      • Just for perspective, we thought the sky was falling when AC went out (he still played 69% of snaps).....  Our starting OL was 100% (MG), 99% (QN), 92% (RK), 86% (nonsense) and 69% (AC)... On average 89%.... vs Philly's 37%... Let that set in.
    • detail....
      • Had a different starting lineup almost every single week. 11 different OL had 50 or more snaps. 
      • Lost starting LT (Dillard) and RG (Brooks, one of the best RGs in the NFL) for the season, before the season started.
      • Arguably their best OL, RT (Johnson), missed a total of 9 games, on 4 different occasions (in and out), hobbled all year, and had career worst grades.
      • Starting LG (Seumalo), was injured early week 2 and missed 7 weeks
      • Only OC (Kelce) played the whole season, really the only bright spot....
  • Pass catchers
    • TE
      • Summary
        • TE1 (Ertz) played only 56% of snaps (and a lot of that gimpy), down from 80% the prior year
        • TE2 (Goedert) played only 53% of snaps, down from 66% in 2019. And the 53% is a bit misleading due to his missed games, and the fact he was playing as TE1 a lot (detail below) and hogging snaps while Ertz was out (and still only 53%)
      • Detail...
        • Both starters played only 54% of snaps, down from 73% the prior year....
        • Ertz, their leading receiver (WR and TE) for several years and TE #1, was injured in week 6, missed 5 games altogether, and wasn't back to normal snaps until week 17
        • Goedert, their TE#2, was injured early in the game week 3, and missed more or less 6 games total, including one late in the year.
    • WR
      • Summary - not one of their projected 6 deep played more than 45% of snaps.....
        • to start, it's worth mentioning that their #1 snap WR (Nelson Agholor) was gone for 2020 (with LVR)
        • assumed WR1 (Jeffery) - played less than 18% of snaps
        • assumed WR2 (Reagor) - played only 45% of snaps (and was a rook)
        • assumed WR3 (Jackson) - played less than 16% of snaps.... 
        • assumed WR4 (Acega Whiteside) - played only 12% of snaps
        • assumed WR5 (Goodwin) - played 0% of snaps....
        • assumed WR6 (Hightower) - played only 31% of snaps
      • Their two leading WRs in terms of snaps were Fulgham, WHO? (who wasn't even on the roster - first snap was week 4) and Ward (another "who?")
      • Philly/Wentz had the 4th highest drop % of any QB starting 12 or more games
      • Detail
        • Jeffries (assumed starter) didn't play till week 10, and only had more than 50% of snaps in 2 games. So in short, and assumed starter, started 2 games.....
        • rook Reager (assumed starter and also rookie) was injured in week 2, missed 5 games, and was hobbled most of the 2nd half of the season...
        • Deshaun Jackson (assumed starter) was injured week 3, only played in 5 games, and never had more than 50% of snaps after week 2..... 
        • Their assumed 2-deep depth to start the season..., Goodwin (opted out), Acega Whiteside (injured and out 8 games), and Hightower (missed 3 games, hobbled 6 more), and rook Watkins (only played 5 games) were in and out too......
  • Running game and play calling
    • Philly was good at running.... 9th in YPG
    • Philly was 3rd in AVG....
    • Philly's run % was only 25th..... WHAT THE XXXX..... 
  • Defense....
    • Philly went from being the 10th best D (YPG) in 2019, to being the 19th best D.... PPG wise, they went from 22.1 to 26.1
    • So, clearly more pressure on the offense....
  • Fanbase, and just the fact that sheet happens.....
    • Philly fanbase is, well, Philly fanbase...
    • Wentz has an elite 2017, is #1 in QBR, and what happens before the 2018 season... Foles gets a statue, and fans are calling for Foles to be the starter... nice kick in the grapes to your new QB.... might that impact a guy's attitude?
    • Wentz is a MW guys, more MW than most MW guys lol... Indy is simply a better fit for a Dakota guy.

 

 

Honest questions...

  1. If our starting OL was Chaz Green, Elderkamp, Kelly, Pinter, and Le'Raven Clark, for most of the year, how many sacks would we have had? Would Rivers have been top 10ish? PS.... Philly had a harder schedule than we did... 
  2. If Hilton, Pittman, Pascal, and Campbell only played roughly 23% of snaps , would Rivers have been #11 in passing yards. Would any QB be top 20 with the Eagles type of injures not only to 76% of their top 4 WRs, but also with 24% drop to their #1 TE (the one who has been their leading pass catcher for a few years)????
  3. Talking heads have said Wentz hung on to the ball to long... His time to throw in 2019 was 10th best (2.71) and increased to 2.91 (6th worst)..... Might that have anything to do with the decimation of his WR and TE units? Just maybe lol... Again, his leading WR was a guy who wasn't even on the roster and playing till week 4.....
  4. If your OL is decimated, your WR and TE units are decimated, and you have a good running game, why are you passing 8th most in the league? Total coaching failure..... And might it be because, maybe, just maybe, you're playing from behind too much... Perhaps your D took a big step back..... lol
  5. Ten place drop in YPG (defense), and giving up 4 more full points..... that's a big drop... So perhaps playing from behind, or hero ball, was kind of normal?

 

 

 

 

Nice post Eaststreet! This shows all the actual stats and a bunch of things I didn't even realize. Feel a bit better about this team! :) Appreciate the hard work!

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4 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Nice post Eaststreet! This shows all the actual stats and a bunch of things I didn't even realize. Feel a bit better about this team! :) Appreciate the hard work!

Thanks buddy. I started to dig little by little after we landed him. The little bits and pieces didn't punch me in the face like the entire picture did though. And I know he has things to work on, and I'm sure he wished he did some things differently..... but the full picture of everything that went on is pretty overwhelming IMO. Not sure there are than many QBs that could have kept the ship from sinking.

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1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

I’d love to see how the media and “experts” would react to this. 

Honestly I can't believe one of the sites haven't done this same thing. 

Hicks for instance could have started his series with something like this. 

More a less, a "here's what happened", then proceeded with his "how you fix Wentz".... 

 

I also think having an understanding of this (and painting the picture), would have impacted some of his content.

 

For instance, he talks about Wentz missing wide open WRs on some dig routes (I think it was dig), his TTT, and also his performance when not pressured.... I think all of those issues were greatly impacted by trust. Given their OL situation, I think it was pretty hard for him to assume his OL would hold with new starters almost every single week. He had to be paranoid from the start just about every week. And given their WR/TE situation, he simply lacked chemistry and trust there too. 

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Great write up!!  Goes to show the QB gets too much credit while also shouldering the blame. These stats show a terrible situation only the all time greats would have a chance to salvage.  What concerns me is we do have a few of the same issues.  Our WRs have injury issues and our coaching staff makes questionable choices.  Our OL has been relatively healthy the last two years, especially 2019 when I think no one missed a start. Last year was probably what we can expect year to year but logic says we will eventually have a starter go down for the year. 

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7 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Nice post Eaststreet! This shows all the actual stats and a bunch of things I didn't even realize. Feel a bit better about this team! :) Appreciate the hard work!


Yes, heck of a post @EastStreet, thanks for taking the time to do it. Numbers don’t lie for the most part but one can run with a few numbers that fits their narrative without looking at the whole picture.

 

The whole picture does look more rosy for expectations from Wentz, and that of mine is a top half of the league QB at the very least for lots of metrics.

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12 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Great write up!!  Goes to show the QB gets too much credit while also shouldering the blame. These stats show a terrible situation only the all time greats would have a chance to salvage.  What concerns me is we do have a few of the same issues.  Our WRs have injury issues and our coaching staff makes questionable choices.  Our OL has been relatively healthy the last two years, especially 2019 when I think no one missed a start. Last year was probably what we can expect year to year but logic says we will eventually have a starter go down for the year. 

Thanks, and.... Yup, too much credit, and too much blame.

He might not be a Pro Bowl type guys this year, but I'd bet he's in the running for comeback player of the year.

9 hours ago, chad72 said:


Yes, heck of a post @EastStreet, thanks for taking the time to do it. Numbers don’t lie for the most part but one can run with a few numbers that fits their narrative without looking at the whole picture.

 

The whole picture does look more rosy for expectations from Wentz, and that of mine is a top half of the league QB at the very least for lots of metrics.

Thanks buddy. As long as our OL and pass catching units don't crumble around him, I expect him to do well, especially with Reich's conservative approach. Good support, and a lot less pressure to carry the team. I just hope Reich isn't too conservative for too long. I think the tough teams early on the schedule might require the training wheels to removed in short order lol.

7 hours ago, NodakColt said:

Great post. Do you mind if I share it?

Thanks. Please feel free to share. I think it should be required reading for all Colts fans lol.... especially the ones down on Wentz.

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21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Yup, but I don't think a lot of folks understand just how bad it was. Not sure I've ever seen so much impact to both OL and pass catchers.

 

Not that I'm trying to say Wentz will be an All Pro this year or anything, but I do believe he stands quite a fair chance to be 8-12ish in 2021. 

 

First, great post. Sorry I didn't say that. Second, Wentz imo will succeed for a couple reasons.

 

1. This is not his team to carry so no need for hero ball

2. More up-tempo quick passes offense means less pressure which is where Wentz struggles.

3. Potential top 10 defense to help out the offense.

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15 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

First, great post. Sorry I didn't say that. Second, Wentz imo will succeed for a couple reasons.

 

1. This is not his team to carry so no need for hero ball

2. More up-tempo quick passes offense means less pressure which is where Wentz struggles.

3. Potential top 10 defense to help out the offense.

Thanks. I think there are a ton of reasons he'll succeed here. Most assume health of course of our players.

  • Aside from the Fisher situation, our other 4 OL have pretty good health histories, and we should be a top 5 OL once Fisher returns. Even without him, we should be pretty decent.
  • WRs - while we're projecting a lot (Pittman taking 2nd year step, TY aging, Parris's health), we have a pretty solid group overall. Rivers was top 10ish in yards even without Campbell. Pascal is one of the better 4th WRs in the league and does a lot of the little things right. Regardless, it will be a heck of a lot better than what Wentz had last year. His two WRs with the most snaps weren't even projected to be on the 53 man roster.
  • TE - Personally I think our TE group is underrated, and underutilized. No they may not be Ertz, but Ertz is aging, and our guys grade well. I don't think MAC has come close to hitting his ceiling. He graded out near elite in just about every category. And they're reliable and consistent, and they both block well. Unless their health fails, the situation will be a lot better than Philly last year.
  • Running game - Philly's running game was good last year, but they weren't featured like ours will be. I'll take Taylor/Mack/Hines over Sanders/Scott/? any day and every day. And Hines and Taylor are studs in the passing game too.
  • Scheme - while I get frustrated with our conservative scheme, it's very QB friendly. It ask less of a QB than the Eagles scheme. 
  • Indy - we're simply a much, much better fan base. Wentz will feel at home here. And the locker room is much, much better too.

 

I'm not all that high on our D being a factor. I love our run stopping, but not our pass D. And I think our run D is going to take a step back this year with Walker gone, and a lot of newbs on the DL.

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Good work on the OP.

 

All of this was clear to anyone who bothered to pay any attention to what happened in Philly over the last couple of seasons. Besides Wentz having some injuries in previous years, there were other signs of trouble with the roster and coaching staff, and the everything fell apart in 2020. It's undeniable that they had a bad situation, for any QB, last season.

 

I will add, though, that if you watch Wentz in 2020, it's obvious that his mechanics and decision making were sub-optimal. People have taken some issue with Hicks' approach in his series of articles on Wentz, but I assume his objective was to zero in on Wentz, not his surroundings. You can't totally separate the two, but Wentz had some major issues on his own. 

 

So it's unlikely that the Colts will have a revolving door at OL, WR and TE like the Eagles did. It's unlikely that we'll abandon the running game, or give up 26 points/game to the opponent. But Wentz still needs to straighten out his footwork, mechanics, timing, and decision making. He still needs to be more decisive in the pocket, avoid scrambling into pressure, avoid throwing off his back foot into coverage, secure the ball when pressured, etc. His success in 2021 will be significantly dependent on him cleaning up specific areas of his game.

 

And then there's the shot fighter theory, which I don't subscribe to in his case, because I think the situation in Philly was terrible, and even the greatest players would have had trouble performing at a high level there. But Wentz would not be the first QB to look really good, have a series of injuries, and never get back on track. So I feel compelled to at least acknowledge the possibility, especially after he was benched last year.

 

End of the day, I've been saying since December that the idea Wentz is toast is nonsense, IMO. Philly was a terrible situation, Wentz battled injuries, the roster fell apart, the coaching and front office didn't get along, etc. Wentz's talent and playmaking ability was still obvious, even in 2020. But he has to play better, fundamentally. I think there's a great chance that he will.

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51 minutes ago, Superman said:

Good work on the OP.

 

All of this was clear to anyone who bothered to pay any attention to what happened in Philly over the last couple of seasons. Besides Wentz having some injuries in previous years, there were other signs of trouble with the roster and coaching staff, and the everything fell apart in 2020. It's undeniable that they had a bad situation, for any QB, last season.

 

I will add, though, that if you watch Wentz in 2020, it's obvious that his mechanics and decision making were sub-optimal. People have taken some issue with Hicks' approach in his series of articles on Wentz, but I assume his objective was to zero in on Wentz, not his surroundings. You can't totally separate the two, but Wentz had some major issues on his own. 

 

So it's unlikely that the Colts will have a revolving door at OL, WR and TE like the Eagles did. It's unlikely that we'll abandon the running game, or give up 26 points/game to the opponent. But Wentz still needs to straighten out his footwork, mechanics, timing, and decision making. He still needs to be more decisive in the pocket, avoid scrambling into pressure, avoid throwing off his back foot into coverage, secure the ball when pressured, etc. His success in 2021 will be significantly dependent on him cleaning up specific areas of his game.

 

And then there's the shot fighter theory, which I don't subscribe to in his case, because I think the situation in Philly was terrible, and even the greatest players would have had trouble performing at a high level there. But Wentz would not be the first QB to look really good, have a series of injuries, and never get back on track. So I feel compelled to at least acknowledge the possibility, especially after he was benched last year.

 

End of the day, I've been saying since December that the idea Wentz is toast is nonsense, IMO. Philly was a terrible situation, Wentz battled injuries, the roster fell apart, the coaching and front office didn't get along, etc. Wentz's talent and playmaking ability was still obvious, even in 2020. But he has to play better, fundamentally. I think there's a great chance that he will.

I agree with all of this, good post. It's pretty clear there were a ton of issues in philly but Wentz also had a part in that situation as well. It sounds like he is doing everything he can to correct his issues this off season. That's really all anyone can ask of a player, do what you can do to fix your mistakes and improve your game and give everything you have to the team to win games.  My hope is he can get back to at least a top 10 type QB and lead this team to a super bowl. 

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On 7/18/2021 at 1:15 AM, EastStreet said:

Yup, but I don't think a lot of folks understand just how bad it was. Not sure I've ever seen so much impact to both OL and pass catchers.

 

Not that I'm trying to say Wentz will be an All Pro this year or anything, but I do believe he stands quite a fair chance to be 8-12ish in 2021. 

 

We don't even need the 2017 version of Wentz.  If we get the 2018 or the 2019 than we're a contender.  

 

The other thing to me is that I think having the team fail around him like that did something to him mentally.  I think when things are going badly for long enough it affects you mentally and you start to miss out on the easy stuff too just because your mind is so occupied with "how can I pull us out of this" that you just arn't able to focus on even the basics anymore.  The good news is that in my experience when you are taken out of that situation and put in a better one you usually can go back to doing what you did before.  

 

And no one is under more pressure to step up and be the hero than the QB.  I think some QB's have the mental ability to shake that all off and play well anyways.  But I'm guessing that many don't.  

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Football is the ultimate team sport. When you have one guy failing at his position it puts a lot on the other 10 guys out there. When you have multiple players failing it's pretty much a disaster. Another thing with the oline is playing together consistently is a huge part of it. You have to know exactly what the guy next to you is going to do every play. That's hard under ideal circumstances but when those guys next to you are changing every game it's extremely difficult. The coaching and play calling seemed to be another huge issue. When you have a decent running game, inexperienced WR's and a revolving line you definitely should not be calling pass plays 75% of the time!

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On 7/18/2021 at 12:35 AM, EastStreet said:

For those interested in the detail on Philly last year....... take a read.... There's very little subjective info or opinion below. But there is some sarcasm in the "honest questions" section.

 

Anyway, there's lots of reason to expect Wentz to be better in Indy. In short, every single aspect (OL, pass catching, D, and coaching) was a dumpster fire last year. Saying it was "a mess" really doesn't do it justice. Perhaps, a mess, in a dumpster, and on fire... 

 

  • OL - lets start here...
    • In summary, in terms of starters
      • Assumed starters played only 37% of snaps
      • LT - gone for the year - played 0% of snaps
      • LG - missed about half the year - played 52% of snaps
      • C - was the only constant - played 99.56% of snaps
      • RG - gone for the year - played 0% of snaps
      • RT - missed over half the year - played only 35.75% of snaps
      • Just for perspective, we thought the sky was falling when AC went out (he still played 69% of snaps).....  Our starting OL was 100% (MG), 99% (QN), 92% (RK), 86% (nonsense) and 69% (AC)... On average 89%.... vs Philly's 37%... Let that set in.
    • detail....
      • Had a different starting lineup almost every single week. 11 different OL had 50 or more snaps. 
      • Lost starting LT (Dillard) and RG (Brooks, one of the best RGs in the NFL) for the season, before the season started.
      • Arguably their best OL, RT (Johnson), missed a total of 9 games, on 4 different occasions (in and out), hobbled all year, and had career worst grades.
      • Starting LG (Seumalo), was injured early week 2 and missed 7 weeks
      • Only OC (Kelce) played the whole season, really the only bright spot....
  • Pass catchers
    • TE
      • Summary
        • TE1 (Ertz) played only 56% of snaps (and a lot of that gimpy), down from 80% the prior year
        • TE2 (Goedert) played only 53% of snaps, down from 66% in 2019. And the 53% is a bit misleading due to his missed games, and the fact he was playing as TE1 a lot (detail below) and hogging snaps while Ertz was out (and still only 53%)
      • Detail...
        • Both starters played only 54% of snaps, down from 73% the prior year....
        • Ertz, their leading receiver (WR and TE) for several years and TE #1, was injured in week 6, missed 5 games altogether, and wasn't back to normal snaps until week 17
        • Goedert, their TE#2, was injured early in the game week 3, and missed more or less 6 games total, including one late in the year.
    • WR
      • Summary - not one of their projected 6 deep played more than 45% of snaps.....
        • to start, it's worth mentioning that their #1 snap WR (Nelson Agholor) was gone for 2020 (with LVR)
        • assumed WR1 (Jeffery) - played less than 18% of snaps
        • assumed WR2 (Reagor) - played only 45% of snaps (and was a rook)
        • assumed WR3 (Jackson) - played less than 16% of snaps.... 
        • assumed WR4 (Acega Whiteside) - played only 12% of snaps
        • assumed WR5 (Goodwin) - played 0% of snaps....
        • assumed WR6 (Hightower) - played only 31% of snaps
      • Their two leading WRs in terms of snaps were Fulgham, WHO? (who wasn't even on the roster - first snap was week 4) and Ward (another "who?")
      • Philly/Wentz had the 4th highest drop % of any QB starting 12 or more games
      • Detail
        • Jeffries (assumed starter) didn't play till week 10, and only had more than 50% of snaps in 2 games. So in short, and assumed starter, started 2 games.....
        • rook Reager (assumed starter and also rookie) was injured in week 2, missed 5 games, and was hobbled most of the 2nd half of the season...
        • Deshaun Jackson (assumed starter) was injured week 3, only played in 5 games, and never had more than 50% of snaps after week 2..... 
        • Their assumed 2-deep depth to start the season..., Goodwin (opted out), Acega Whiteside (injured and out 8 games), and Hightower (missed 3 games, hobbled 6 more), and rook Watkins (only played 5 games) were in and out too......
  • Running game and play calling
    • Philly was good at running.... 9th in YPG
    • Philly was 3rd in AVG....
    • Philly's run % was only 25th..... WHAT THE XXXX..... 
  • Defense....
    • Philly went from being the 10th best D (YPG) in 2019, to being the 19th best D.... PPG wise, they went from 22.1 to 26.1
    • So, clearly more pressure on the offense....
  • Fanbase, and just the fact that sheet happens.....
    • Philly fanbase is, well, Philly fanbase...
    • Wentz has an elite 2017, is #1 in QBR, and what happens before the 2018 season... Foles gets a statue, and fans are calling for Foles to be the starter... nice kick in the grapes to your new QB.... might that impact a guy's attitude?
    • Wentz is a MW guys, more MW than most MW guys lol... Indy is simply a better fit for a Dakota guy.

 

 

Honest questions...

  1. If our starting OL was Chaz Green, Elderkamp, Kelly, Pinter, and Le'Raven Clark, for most of the year, how many sacks would we have had? Would Rivers have been top 10ish? PS.... Philly had a harder schedule than we did... 
  2. If Hilton, Pittman, Pascal, and Campbell only played roughly 23% of snaps , would Rivers have been #11 in passing yards. Would any QB be top 20 with the Eagles type of injures not only to 76% of their top 4 WRs, but also with 24% drop to their #1 TE (the one who has been their leading pass catcher for a few years)????
  3. Talking heads have said Wentz hung on to the ball to long... His time to throw in 2019 was 10th best (2.71) and increased to 2.91 (6th worst)..... Might that have anything to do with the decimation of his WR and TE units? Just maybe lol... Again, his leading WR was a guy who wasn't even on the roster and playing till week 4.....
  4. If your OL is decimated, your WR and TE units are decimated, and you have a good running game, why are you passing 8th most in the league? Total coaching failure..... And might it be because, maybe, just maybe, you're playing from behind too much... Perhaps your D took a big step back..... lol
  5. Ten place drop in YPG (defense), and giving up 4 more full points..... that's a big drop... So perhaps playing from behind, or hero ball, was kind of normal?

 

 

 

 


Regarding the PHI OL, they were still #19 per PFF. And Wentz has always had issues holding onto the ball too long.

 

But more importantly, Wentz was terrible at 0/1-step drop plays, PA plays and without blitzing/pressure. These are situations where a bad OL should have little impact, and Wentz was arguably the worst QB in the NFL in those scenarios last season.

 

Rivers has been very productive with bottom of the roster UDFAs in the past. So I think Rivers could have possibly managed top 20. Very confident he wouldn’t have been bottom 5.

 

But while lack of skill position talent can help explain why a QB didn’t excel, it doesn’t excuse terrible play. NFL QBs aren’t entirely products of their skill position environment…they are products of their own skill set.

 

Wentz will be better than last year, but how much is the question. Because he has to be great for this team to be great.  

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10 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

We don't even need the 2017 version of Wentz.  If we get the 2018 or the 2019 than we're a contender.  

Agreed. I think a 19 like performance is more than adequate. I do think after a year or so, he could be close to 2017 once he finds that chemistry with the pass catchers, scheme/coaches, and playbook. I'm gonna guess he's close to 2019, which will be great for year one. Anything better would be awesome.

10 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

The other thing to me is that I think having the team fail around him like that did something to him mentally.  I think when things are going badly for long enough it affects you mentally and you start to miss out on the easy stuff too just because your mind is so occupied with "how can I pull us out of this" that you just arn't able to focus on even the basics anymore.  The good news is that in my experience when you are taken out of that situation and put in a better one you usually can go back to doing what you did before.  

Agreed. I think the stuff that happened in 17 impacted him early, and the 20 stuff, was simply the straw that broke the camel's back. I think there's been a cloud over him for a while. I normally don't like it when players leave, or force trades, but I can understand this situation. I also can understand Stafford's move. I still don't like the stuff around Watson's attempts after just signing a big extension.

10 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

And no one is under more pressure to step up and be the hero than the QB.  I think some QB's have the mental ability to shake that all off and play well anyways.  But I'm guessing that many don't.  

I still think Wentz does have the ability to shake things off. What happen in Philly was simply more than a "shake it off" situation though.

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:


Regarding the PHI OL, they were still #19 per PFF. And Wentz has always had issues holding onto the ball too long.

#19 is not good though lol... And it's more than just PFF grades you have take into account. The OL lineup changed about every week. So no chemistry, which all lead simply to a lack of trust. Rivers for instance knew what to expect, knew how his guys played, and trusted all 5. Wentz had to feel like he was in a game of wack-a-mole all year long with the musical chairs going on.

 

As far as saying Wentz has always had issues with holding onto the ball too long, I'd simply say that's not true.

2020 - 2.91 - 6th highest

2019 - 2.71 - 10th lowest

2018 - 2.66 - 13th lowest

 

He was quicker than average in 18 and 19, top 10 in 19.... His career low in 2020 was predictable given his lack of chemistry with his pass catchers, not to mention the revolving door. Like I said above, his leading two WRs weren't even projected to make the 53. His leading snap WR wasn't even playing till week 4.  

 

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

But more importantly, Wentz was terrible at 0/1-step drop plays, PA plays and without blitzing/pressure. These are situations where a bad OL should have little impact, and Wentz was arguably the worst QB in the NFL in those scenarios last season.

Think of it this way. His OL was a revolving door all year. His WRs and TE were revolving doors all year. It was like he showing up to a different team almost every week. And specifically WRs who he either has never played with, or has played very little with. And let's be honest. His WRs were considered scrubs/jags. Even Reagor, their rook, was counted on too much, and was injured a good portion of the time.

 

In short, I'll take bottom 10 QB with WRs and TEs he's been throwing to for years, over a top 10 QB with WRs, TEs, he's rarely or never thrown too, plus musical chairs at OL.

 

 

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Rivers has been very productive with bottom of the roster UDFAs in the past. So I think Rivers could have possibly managed top 20. Very confident he wouldn’t have been bottom 5.

Rivers is one of the best ever at reading Ds. He's also tremendous at throwing with anticipation. He's also got a very quick trigger. 

 

But he also has had a career full of good pass catchers. K Allen, M Williams, T Williams, V Jackson, Henry, Gates, etc.. Even Malcom Floyd was a darn good X. So I wouldn't say he's been pass-catcher-poor looking back at the last 15 years. His worst year, was not even close to what Wentz had to throw to last year.

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

But while lack of skill position talent can help explain why a QB didn’t excel, it doesn’t excuse terrible play. NFL QBs aren’t entirely products of their skill position environment…they are products of their own skill set.

So you're down 10 because your D took a big step back. You're OL hasn't been holding. Not only are you missing your best pass catcher overall (TE) and best WR from last year, your best pass catcher is now a guy who wasn't on the 53 to start the year, and has a name 99% of folks have never heard. What do you do when you when you're down? You take more risk. Your stats suffer.

 

Sorry buddy, but while I agree a portion of the situation is on him..... when you're down you MUST try to win. And when your surrounding cast stinks, the risk factor goes way up, and success rate way down.

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Wentz will be better than last year, but how much is the question. Because he has to be great for this team to be great.  

First you'd have to define "great". Is that top 10? Top 5? And top 10 or 5 in what stats? QBR, YPG, AVG, etc? 

 

For the sake of argument, would you agree with 

1-5 elite

6-10 great

11-16 good / above average

17-22 below average

23-27 bad

28-32 horrible

 

But in general, I think our D might take a step back, so not sure even a top 10 or 5 will be enough to make the team "great"

 

I do think he'll be top 10ish in QBR and YPG, which are the two stats I like the most. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, shasta519 said:


Regarding the PHI OL, they were still #19 per PFF. And Wentz has always had issues holding onto the ball too long.

 

But more importantly, Wentz was terrible at 0/1-step drop plays, PA plays and without blitzing/pressure. These are situations where a bad OL should have little impact, and Wentz was arguably the worst QB in the NFL in those scenarios last season.

 

Rivers has been very productive with bottom of the roster UDFAs in the past. So I think Rivers could have possibly managed top 20. Very confident he wouldn’t have been bottom 5.

 

But while lack of skill position talent can help explain why a QB didn’t excel, it doesn’t excuse terrible play. NFL QBs aren’t entirely products of their skill position environment…they are products of their own skill set.

 

Wentz will be better than last year, but how much is the question. Because he has to be great for this team to be great.  

 

Wentz has always held onto the ball. Whether it's a problem or not is a more nuanced conversation. If your TD % is 7.5, and you're not turning the ball over, and averaging 8 yards/attempt in an offense that encourages you to be a playmaker, and you have good OL play, a higher sack percentage is an acceptable compromise. 

 

When your OL is falling apart, and you're turning the ball over, and not making plays, holding on to the ball too long has a much different effect on the offense. 

 

Wentz was bad in situations that shouldn't have a lot to do with the protection, at least in 2020. That's primarily because his mechanics and timing sucked, which undermined his ability to make plays, and was made worse by bad decision making. But that's also connected to the group of receivers he was throwing to, and their ability to get open (or lack thereof). And ultimately, once things start going bad, and no one has any answers week after week, it's unlikely that the QB who is second guessing himself and his coaches, and whose footwork is in shambles, is going to just snap out of it and start playing at a high level again. 

 

It's all of the above for Wentz. I think he'll have better coaching, better protection, and better receivers than he did in 2020. It's very important that his mechanics and decision making are better. He's obviously very talented. The idea that he can get back to playing at the previous high levels we've seen isn't far fetched at all. 

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5 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Great Post East

 

4 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

Thanks for the hard work @EastStreet

 

tenor.gif?itemid=15122394

 

You're welcome fellas. Glad you enjoyed.

 

4 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Betty was so good in golden girls! Is she 100 yet? I know she's very close!

99, 100 in January. 

Never watched GGs, but always loved her comedy bits. She was a dime in her 20s lol... wayyyyyyy before my time.

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8 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

He almost has to be better than last year where he was among the worst in the league.  Im skeptical that he will be a top 10 QB here but 10-15 will have us in the playoff hunt at least.  

 

I like the QBR measurement most.

 

His (CWs) track record in that category.

2020 - 28th (5 were worse lol)

2019 - 11th

2018 - 12th

2017 - 1st

 

Colts QBR over the same years +

2020 - 19th

2019 - 21st

2018 - 5th

2017 - 27th

 

 

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On 7/19/2021 at 8:15 AM, Superman said:

Good work on the OP.

 

All of this was clear to anyone who bothered to pay any attention to what happened in Philly over the last couple of seasons. Besides Wentz having some injuries in previous years, there were other signs of trouble with the roster and coaching staff, and the everything fell apart in 2020. It's undeniable that they had a bad situation, for any QB, last season.

 

I will add, though, that if you watch Wentz in 2020, it's obvious that his mechanics and decision making were sub-optimal. People have taken some issue with Hicks' approach in his series of articles on Wentz, but I assume his objective was to zero in on Wentz, not his surroundings. You can't totally separate the two, but Wentz had some major issues on his own. 

 

So it's unlikely that the Colts will have a revolving door at OL, WR and TE like the Eagles did. It's unlikely that we'll abandon the running game, or give up 26 points/game to the opponent. But Wentz still needs to straighten out his footwork, mechanics, timing, and decision making. He still needs to be more decisive in the pocket, avoid scrambling into pressure, avoid throwing off his back foot into coverage, secure the ball when pressured, etc. His success in 2021 will be significantly dependent on him cleaning up specific areas of his game.

 

And then there's the shot fighter theory, which I don't subscribe to in his case, because I think the situation in Philly was terrible, and even the greatest players would have had trouble performing at a high level there. But Wentz would not be the first QB to look really good, have a series of injuries, and never get back on track. So I feel compelled to at least acknowledge the possibility, especially after he was benched last year.

 

End of the day, I've been saying since December that the idea Wentz is toast is nonsense, IMO. Philly was a terrible situation, Wentz battled injuries, the roster fell apart, the coaching and front office didn't get along, etc. Wentz's talent and playmaking ability was still obvious, even in 2020. But he has to play better, fundamentally. I think there's a great chance that he will.

I want to give you credit. You obviously know the game well, as well as understand the contractual mechanics of the NFL. But what you do best, is construct a great post using all of the points necessary. You remain true to reality, and you don't to sway the reader with emotional points. In summation, after reading your response, I rarely find anything important that did not get addressed. 

 

Honestly, if you don't already, you should consider writing. 

 

Also, I agree that the OP had a great thread starter that was the result of a great deal of work. 

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On 7/19/2021 at 11:15 AM, Superman said:

Good work on the OP.

 

All of this was clear to anyone who bothered to pay any attention to what happened in Philly over the last couple of seasons. Besides Wentz having some injuries in previous years, there were other signs of trouble with the roster and coaching staff, and the everything fell apart in 2020. It's undeniable that they had a bad situation, for any QB, last season.

 

Yup. I will say I learned a lot though after we picked him up. Not only about 2020. Honestly though, I didn't realize how bad things were, injury and personnel wise, until I started digging.

On 7/19/2021 at 11:15 AM, Superman said:

 

I will add, though, that if you watch Wentz in 2020, it's obvious that his mechanics and decision making were sub-optimal. People have taken some issue with Hicks' approach in his series of articles on Wentz, but I assume his objective was to zero in on Wentz, not his surroundings. You can't totally separate the two, but Wentz had some major issues on his own. 

As soon as picked him up, I set Eagles as a favorite so my DVR would auto record all the replays. I wish I would have kept them so I could have rewatched in more of a grading mode (Wentz plus surrounding cast). I'm also not sure I would have known what to really zero in on (surrounding cast) at the point I watched. 

 

But I agree, the mechanics were ugly, but IIRC, they got worse as the year went along. If true, I can kind of understand. 

On 7/19/2021 at 11:15 AM, Superman said:

 

So it's unlikely that the Colts will have a revolving door at OL, WR and TE like the Eagles did. It's unlikely that we'll abandon the running game, or give up 26 points/game to the opponent. But Wentz still needs to straighten out his footwork, mechanics, timing, and decision making. He still needs to be more decisive in the pocket, avoid scrambling into pressure, avoid throwing off his back foot into coverage, secure the ball when pressured, etc. His success in 2021 will be significantly dependent on him cleaning up specific areas of his game.

I'm pretty confident he can cure the mechanics issues. I'm assuming that he wasn't all that bad pre-2020 given his success. If the mechanics have been bad for years, I'd worry more. But assuming things were simply bad last year, or got worse as the year progressed, it seems like it might be a quick fix. If he can get that bad over the course of a season, perhaps he can turn it around that quick as well.

 

I also think our conservative type of football will aid in the rebound. I'm just not so sure we'll be able to stay conservative given the first couple of teams we play.

On 7/19/2021 at 11:15 AM, Superman said:

 

And then there's the shot fighter theory, which I don't subscribe to in his case, because I think the situation in Philly was terrible, and even the greatest players would have had trouble performing at a high level there. But Wentz would not be the first QB to look really good, have a series of injuries, and never get back on track. So I feel compelled to at least acknowledge the possibility, especially after he was benched last year.

Given he was top 10ish in QBR in 18 and 19, I don't think injury broke him. I do think things got pretty dark for him last year though. Just not sure he ever felt at home in Philly, or wanted. IMO, he'll be refreshed to start to the year. If things go wrong early, I will absolutely start to worry about the impact to his mental makeup. 

 

And one of the bigger reasons I think he'll snap back is Reich. I'm critical of him in several areas, but this is an area I think he excels in. I also think the private practices Wentz is having with pass catchers will go along way in building chemistry and comradery. All in all, Philly is Philly, and Indy is just a much better environment for a guy like Wentz.

On 7/19/2021 at 11:15 AM, Superman said:

 

End of the day, I've been saying since December that the idea Wentz is toast is nonsense, IMO. Philly was a terrible situation, Wentz battled injuries, the roster fell apart, the coaching and front office didn't get along, etc. Wentz's talent and playmaking ability was still obvious, even in 2020. But he has to play better, fundamentally. I think there's a great chance that he will.

Same here. If you had to guess, where do you think Wentz will end 2021 in QBR ranking?

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21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm pretty confident he can cure the mechanics issues. I'm assuming that he wasn't all that bad pre-2020 given his success. If the mechanics have been bad for years, I'd worry more. But assuming things were simply bad last year, or got worse as the year progressed, it seems like it might be a quick fix. If he can get that bad over the course of a season, perhaps he can turn it around that quick as well.

 

He's been sloppy with his mechanics since college. He over strides, double hops, his feet and eyes tend to be disconnected, etc. This is all obvious from some college tape, and his first year with the Eagles. He tightened things up quickly, but his playmaking tends to rely on a disregard for sound fundamentals. You could say the same thing about Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, etc. -- any number of gunslingers who were/are highly effective, but also do funky things in and out of the pocket, with varying degrees of success. 

 

I said earlier, when you're highly effective, and not turning the ball over, no one is worried about how you over stride and bend at the waist, or about your irregular arm angle. 

 

But like you said, he has been working with House and Dedeaux again, and all they work on is core fundamentals. He's had a healthy offseason, so nothing to worry about besides getting his mechanics primed back up. And the offensive staff, starting with Reich, will hone in on what he does well, to take some pressure off of him.

 

You and I have a different stand on Reich and his "conservative" nature. Ultimately, you might be right about him, but I maintain that he hasn't quite had a QB situation that would allow him to show what his nature really is, at least not in Indy. He wasn't the primary play caller in Philly, but he was a major part of the gameplan and approach, they weren't a conservative offense. Reich had struggles in San Diego as the play caller, but that was a long time ago now. 

 

This year, Wentz is healthy, we have an established offense core, a good OL, and a running game. Whatever Reich really is, I expect we'll see it this year. 

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Much like Rivers the year before Wentz spent his last year at Philly running for his life. To make matters worse, he had few targets to throw to when he got away. Then many times they dropped the ball. How he could be blamed for a drop in production under these circumstances is hard to fathom. The Philly fans might have screwed to pooch as they say. I look for marked improvement should the Colts prove to be more stable.

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On 7/20/2021 at 12:54 PM, EastStreet said:

 

Yup. I will say I learned a lot though after we picked him up. Not only about 2020. Honestly though, I didn't realize how bad things were, injury and personnel wise, until I started digging.

As soon as picked him up, I set Eagles as a favorite so my DVR would auto record all the replays. I wish I would have kept them so I could have rewatched in more of a grading mode (Wentz plus surrounding cast). I'm also not sure I would have known what to really zero in on (surrounding cast) at the point I watched. 

 

But I agree, the mechanics were ugly, but IIRC, they got worse as the year went along. If true, I can kind of understand. 

I'm pretty confident he can cure the mechanics issues. I'm assuming that he wasn't all that bad pre-2020 given his success. If the mechanics have been bad for years, I'd worry more. But assuming things were simply bad last year, or got worse as the year progressed, it seems like it might be a quick fix. If he can get that bad over the course of a season, perhaps he can turn it around that quick as well.

 

I also think our conservative type of football will aid in the rebound. I'm just not so sure we'll be able to stay conservative given the first couple of teams we play.

Given he was top 10ish in QBR in 18 and 19, I don't think injury broke him. I do think things got pretty dark for him last year though. Just not sure he ever felt at home in Philly, or wanted. IMO, he'll be refreshed to start to the year. If things go wrong early, I will absolutely start to worry about the impact to his mental makeup. 

 

And one of the bigger reasons I think he'll snap back is Reich. I'm critical of him in several areas, but this is an area I think he excels in. I also think the private practices Wentz is having with pass catchers will go along way in building chemistry and comradery. All in all, Philly is Philly, and Indy is just a much better environment for a guy like Wentz.

Same here. If you had to guess, where do you think Wentz will end 2021 in QBR ranking?

Top 5

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This is a good thread. Providing important context.

I remember the year Manning faced San Diego, 2007 I believe....he had Reggie Wayne and the skeletons of the RCA dome catching balls. I think Reg had over 100yards but 18 threw 2 TDs and 100 picks lol (it was just 6 picks), the Oline was all sorts of banged up, the receiving corp was banged up, it was unreal. Colts were down 23-0 and should have won (Vinny missed a chip shot at the end).

 

Point is - it may have been just one game but with weapons gone, and protection taken away. Manning looked, well, human.

 

Another note i remember from that game, Rivers and Norv got their butts booed over and over again. San Diego didnt always love Rivers.

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On 7/21/2021 at 10:46 AM, Superman said:

 

He's been sloppy with his mechanics since college. He over strides, double hops, his feet and eyes tend to be disconnected, etc. This is all obvious from some college tape, and his first year with the Eagles. He tightened things up quickly, but his playmaking tends to rely on a disregard for sound fundamentals. You could say the same thing about Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, etc. -- any number of gunslingers who were/are highly effective, but also do funky things in and out of the pocket, with varying degrees of success. 

 

I said earlier, when you're highly effective, and not turning the ball over, no one is worried about how you over stride and bend at the waist, or about your irregular arm angle. 

 

But like you said, he has been working with House and Dedeaux again, and all they work on is core fundamentals. He's had a healthy offseason, so nothing to worry about besides getting his mechanics primed back up. And the offensive staff, starting with Reich, will hone in on what he does well, to take some pressure off of him.

 

You and I have a different stand on Reich and his "conservative" nature. Ultimately, you might be right about him, but I maintain that he hasn't quite had a QB situation that would allow him to show what his nature really is, at least not in Indy. He wasn't the primary play caller in Philly, but he was a major part of the gameplan and approach, they weren't a conservative offense. Reich had struggles in San Diego as the play caller, but that was a long time ago now. 

 

This year, Wentz is healthy, we have an established offense core, a good OL, and a running game. Whatever Reich really is, I expect we'll see it this year. 

 

I would absolutely love to be wrong about Reich's conservative nature. Until I see it though, it is what it is. I really don't expect anything to really open up early this season (unless we're down, which is not far fetched vs a few early opponents). I think Reich will install some training wheels on Wentz early. Rivers had a good deep throw success rate, but low deep throw attempt rate. You'd think a high success rate would translate into more attempts, but it never did. It'll be interesting that's for sure.

 

On the mechanics, I'm just not worried about it. If he's winning, it won't get mentioned even if he's foot-funky. I'm sure they're working on it, and I have to believe he's focused. 

 

So no prediction (QBR)?

 

 

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