Braden Smith getting more expensive each passing day

[CR91]

 

At first, I projected 15 mil. That's just laughable now.

[Myles]

He will be expensive.  I wonder if him being one of Ballard's best "hits" in the draft will make Ballard more willing to keep him here?  

[Dark Superman]

Nelson, Smith and Leonard are all about to receive huge contracts.

[Myles]

4 minutes ago, Coslosky24 said:

Nelson, Smith and Leonard are all about to receive huge contracts.

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

[Dark Superman]

22 minutes ago, Myles said:

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

They most definitely will.

[Four2itus]

24 minutes ago, Myles said:

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

Kind of mirrors society. This is from....https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/

 

"According to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, the world’s richest 1 percent, those with more than $1 million, own 43.4 percent of the world’s wealth. Their data also shows that adults with less than $10,000 in wealth make up 53.6 percent of the world’s population but hold just 1.4 percent of global wealth. Individuals owning over $100,000 in assets make up 12.4 percent of the global population but own 83.9 percent of global wealth. Credit Suisse defines “wealth” as the value of a household’s financial assets plus real assets (principally housing), minus their debts."

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

The only thing that might bring his amount down slightly is no pro bowls or all pros.

[jvan1973]

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

The only thing that might bring his amount down slightly is no pro bowls or all pros.

Neither has Moton

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

After we pay Nelson next season and most likely fisher it is going to get interesting. We do have one advantage and that is we will get all these guys locked in and the cap will keep going up.

 

I am going to cry if we can’t keep Hines. I love him so much. He is such a fun player to watch. Hilton, pascal, Hines, Turay, Lewis. We are really going to be pushing that cap.

[CR91]

10 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

After we pay Nelson next season and most likely fisher it is going to get interesting. We do have one advantage and that is we will get all these guys locked in and the cap will keep going up.

 

I am going to cry if we can’t keep Hines. I love him so much. He is such a fun player to watch. Hilton, pascal, Hines, Turay, Lewis. We are really going to be pushing that cap.

 

Pascal and Hines would be the keepers. I can see the rest walking next year.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This is kind of funny. Not only did this guy forget about smith but Nelson is going to get more then that. No way smith is goinf to get more then Nelson.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

30 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Pascal and Hines would be the keepers. I can see the rest walking next year.

Yep. If Campbell stays healthy we can probably let TY go. Pascal and Hines shouldn’t cost to much. Maybe around 6 million a year for each. With the two dline we drafted we might be able to let go of Turay or Lewis also. I would probably keep Lewis over Turay. That is going to be a hard one if Turay comes back strong and stays healthy. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

 

I don't know about 26% of cap BUT a quarter of it anyway.  

[gspdx]

1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

Kind of mirrors society. This is from....https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/

 

"According to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, the world’s richest 1 percent, those with more than $1 million, own 43.4 percent of the world’s wealth. Their data also shows that adults with less than $10,000 in wealth make up 53.6 percent of the world’s population but hold just 1.4 percent of global wealth. Individuals owning over $100,000 in assets make up 12.4 percent of the global population but own 83.9 percent of global wealth. Credit Suisse defines “wealth” as the value of a household’s financial assets plus real assets (principally housing), minus their debts."

 

And if you look at the last 50 years it is worse now than it was then.  Probably the same with Football.  No way 3 o-lineman on an NFL team in 1970 took up 26% of a teams payroll.

[gspdx]

I still don't know how we can keep Fisher if he returns to form.  This O-line would be so expensive.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, gspdx said:

I still don't know how we can keep Fisher if he returns to form.  This O-line would be so expensive.  

Like I posted above once we get these players locked in the cap is going to keep going up so we should be ok. We are lucky Ballard drafts so well. Because you can always draft if you end up losing a player.

[Superman]

28 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

This is kind of funny. Not only did this guy forget about smith but Nelson is going to get more then that. No way smith is goinf to get more then Nelson.

 

 

 

Spotrac valuations aren't reliable. But they're valuing OG lower than OT, which has historically been the case. However, RT has always been valued lower than LT, but these two new RT contracts show that's changing. And it's obvious that Nelson will break the mold of traditional OG pay. So throw this valuation in the trash.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

 

How do you project their yearly averages? Just curious, want to do some math.

[chad72]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

How do you project their yearly averages? Just curious, want to do some math.

 

Based on how things are structured, it could range from $45-55 mil. for those 3 players' yearly averages. 

 

In other words, about 22% - 26% of the cap amongst 3 key players. It is not bad for players we consider cornerstone players for the next 5 years.

[Superman]

My rough projections, based on my thinking and some things I've read. Don't want to get into whether they all should get these deals, just thinking about what the market28 says right now. Also projecting four year extensions for each player, taking them all through 2025.

 

Quenton Nelson: No question he'll be the highest paid guard, but he probably also wants to be a top five paid OL, so let's put him at $20m/year (4th highest paid OL, beating Scherff for highest paid guard ($18m).

 

Braden Smith: I think Moton and Ramczyk both have better resumes than Smith, but he has never given up a sack, doesn't get penalized, doesn't miss games (last year, he got stitches in his thumb on Thursday, and missed the game Sunday; in the other game, he was in Covid protocol), and had a really strong 2020. I think we can put him at $18m/year, tied with Moton for 2nd highest paid RT (behind Ramczyk, $19.2m/year). And that's pretty aggressive, by the way...

 

Darius Leonard: The last time a 4-3 LB of Leonard's caliber signed was 2019, when Bobby Wagner signed for $18m/year, and Myles Jack signed for $14.25m/year. I think Leonard will get at least $19m/year, making him the highest paid at his position.

 

The 2021 cap is $182.5m. The 2022 cap ceiling will be $208m, let's assume that's the cap. Based on some projections, the cap is supposed to jump dramatically, either in 2023 or 2024. Some suggest the cap will hit $300m by 2027. New TV deals, return to stadiums, increasing ticket prices, etc., the numbers are there, but I'll be conservative. Let's say 2023 goes to $220m, 2024 goes to $240m, 2025 goes to $260m.

 

The total cap, from 2022-2025, would be $928m. The total salaries for these three players would be $228m. That's 24.5% of the cap, over those four years. If we assume slightly lower cap hits because of the distribution of salary (especially for Nelson, who would probably get an extra year due to his 5th year option), then the total percentage would be a little less.

[AustexColt]

Good RT are hard to find and given his youth and fit to our system it makes sense we structure a contract that keeps him.  His Pro Bowl status will come in time. He is solid and keeps his nose to the grindstone. I believe Ballard will work something out. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

55 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Spotrac valuations aren't reliable. But they're valuing OG lower than OT, which has historically been the case. However, RT has always been valued lower than LT, but these two new RT contracts show that's changing. And it's obvious that Nelson will break the mold of traditional OG pay. So throw this valuation in the trash.

Yeah I understand why he is saying that for Nelson. It’s because he is a guard. Kevin Bowen mentioned he thinks Nelson is going to be the highest paid oline  not just guard. We are probably looking at a very long contract for Nelson so that should help spread his cap out. We can probably do the same for Smith. Both have been healthy and no injury concerns.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I do think Ballard is right about paying the trenches. That is where games are won and loss. Then if you can fill in with a special player at each level of defense we should be good. We do have Leonard and Moore there. Then if Blackmon becomes the player we think and Willis stays his steady self I think we are ok.
 

Offense you want to be paying your QB and oline. We have two years before having to pay pitman. I don’t think you need all these Superstars as offensive weapons. . Just a a bunch of above average players and a great oline. I think we do have the chance to have some special ones though as offensive weapons.

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

3 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

After we pay Nelson next season and most likely fisher it is going to get interesting. We do have one advantage and that is we will get all these guys locked in and the cap will keep going up.

 

I am going to cry if we can’t keep Hines. I love him so much. He is such a fun player to watch. Hilton, pascal, Hines, Turay, Lewis. We are really going to be pushing that cap.

I say at least Glows contract will be off books. He is the one guy I can easily see being replaced by Pinter just based on guys around him. It should help setup the cost. Also can manipulate the payments and keep the Cap hits down over the years. Like one higher in odd year, other in even years

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

I say at least Glows contract will be off books. He is the one guy I can easily see being replaced by Pinter just based on guys around him. It should help setup the cost. Also can manipulate the payments and keep the Cap hits down over the years. Like one higher in odd year, other in even years

Yeah that will be a interesting one. I wonder how much he would be worth. But they are very high on Pinter so we will see. I really like glow. Nice compliment to the rest of the line. Bur if you can either resign Glow or Hines your picking Hines.

[DaColts85]

We can franchise him and sign both Nelson and Leonard. Just a thought. Regardless those three will be pricey. 

[DaColts85]

We are looking at close to 18 mil per for all three. That’s a lot of money on the offensive line if we want to then try and keep Fisher too next year. Good thing the cap will go up 20+ million next year. 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

27 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Yeah that will be a interesting one. I wonder how much he would be worth. But they are very high on Pinter so we will see. I really like glow. Nice compliment to the rest of the line. Bur if you can either resign Glow or Hines your picking Hines.

I just dont see a major scenario when they resign him just do to cost and Pinter general player last year. Unless he takes a stepback. It is just too hard to play almost 30mil for 2 guards

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Myles said:

Those 3 may end up taking up 26% of the cap.

Hope you realize the cap is about to go up.

 

Way up.    

[JediXMan]

Isn't the salary cap going to increase quite a bit the next few years?

[CR91]

3 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

We can franchise him and sign both Nelson and Leonard. Just a thought. Regardless those three will be pricey. 

 

That's basically paying 17 mil for one year.

[Myles]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

My rough projections, based on my thinking and some things I've read. Don't want to get into whether they all should get these deals, just thinking about what the market28 says right now. Also projecting four year extensions for each player, taking them all through 2025.

 

Quenton Nelson: No question he'll be the highest paid guard, but he probably also wants to be a top five paid OL, so let's put him at $20m/year (4th highest paid OL, beating Scherff for highest paid guard ($18m).

 

Braden Smith: I think Moton and Ramczyk both have better resumes than Smith, but he has never given up a sack, doesn't get penalized, doesn't miss games (last year, he got stitches in his thumb on Thursday, and missed the game Sunday; in the other game, he was in Covid protocol), and had a really strong 2020. I think we can put him at $18m/year, tied with Moton for 2nd highest paid RT (behind Ramczyk, $19.2m/year). And that's pretty aggressive, by the way...

 

Darius Leonard: The last time a 4-3 LB of Leonard's caliber signed was 2019, when Bobby Wagner signed for $18m/year, and Myles Jack signed for $14.25m/year. I think Leonard will get at least $19m/year, making him the highest paid at his position.

 

The 2021 cap is $182.5m. The 2022 cap ceiling will be $208m, let's assume that's the cap. Based on some projections, the cap is supposed to jump dramatically, either in 2023 or 2024. Some suggest the cap will hit $300m by 2027. New TV deals, return to stadiums, increasing ticket prices, etc., the numbers are there, but I'll be conservative. Let's say 2023 goes to $220m, 2024 goes to $240m, 2025 goes to $260m.

 

The total cap, from 2022-2025, would be $928m. The total salaries for these three players would be $228m. That's 24.5% of the cap, over those four years. If we assume slightly lower cap hits because of the distribution of salary (especially for Nelson, who would probably get an extra year due to his 5th year option), then the total percentage would be a little less.

In a nutshell, that is pretty much what I quickly thought of.   I added a couple % just in case another at the same position sets the market higher.  

 

Perhaps, with Mack this season, Hines' number will be lower and allow us to sign him to a more budget friendly price.   

[BProland85]

17 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

After we pay Nelson next season and most likely fisher it is going to get interesting. We do have one advantage and that is we will get all these guys locked in and the cap will keep going up.

 

I am going to cry if we can’t keep Hines. I love him so much. He is such a fun player to watch. Hilton, pascal, Hines, Turay, Lewis. We are really going to be pushing that cap.

I agree we have to find a way to keep Hines as the change up back to JT longterm. He is basically Sproles 2.0.

[BProland85]

16 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Yep. If Campbell stays healthy we can probably let TY go. Pascal and Hines shouldn’t cost to much. Maybe around 6 million a year for each. With the two dline we drafted we might be able to let go of Turay or Lewis also. I would probably keep Lewis over Turay. That is going to be a hard one if Turay comes back strong and stays healthy. 

TY will most likely be gone after this season. Ballard will need another top prospect in the draft to take over for him unless Campbell actually stays healthy and shows his talents. 

[DougDew]

36 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

I agree we have to find a way to keep Hines as the change up back to JT longterm. He is basically Sproles 2.0.

Why?  What is the value of a change up back, and how easy are they to find?  Hines does some nice things, but as far as finding speedy guy/open space runners, every level of football is loaded with them.

 

If the cap goes up and the numbers work then sure, but having a specific off-back open space runner guy is never a high priority, IMO.

[gspdx]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Why?  What is the value of a change up back, and how easy are they to find?  Hines does some nice things, but as far as finding speedy guy/open space runners, every level of football is loaded with them.

 

If the cap goes up and the numbers work then sure, but the off-back open space runner guy is never a high priority, IMO.

 

Tough decisions always need to be made.  It's easy letting guys walk when the talent isn't very good.  But this is a pretty good team right now and there will be no way to afford them all.

 

That's why drafting quality players is key.  Might need to let Hines go.  For all we know they might decide to let Mack go.  

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Tough decisions always need to be made.  It's easy letting guys walk when the talent isn't very good.  But this is a pretty good team right now and there will be no way to afford them all.

 

That's why drafting quality players is key.  Might need to let Hines go.  For all we know they might decide to let Mack go.  

If Mack can come back then he might take over Hines role.  Some may question his pass catching, but he was never asked to do much of that, so its difficult to judge.

 

The off-back or the one-dimensional dynamic playmaker can usually be found in the draft and can contribute right away as a rookie.  Maybe the best way to address the "long term" need for an off-back is to draft one in the second or third round and pay him a cheap 3 year rookie contract.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

40 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If Mack can come back then he might take over Hines role.  Some may question his pass catching, but he was never asked to do much of that, so its difficult to judge.

 

The off-back or the one-dimensional dynamic playmaker can usually be found in the draft and can contribute right away as a rookie.  Maybe the best way to address the "long term" need for an off-back is to draft one in the second or third round and pay him a cheap 3 year rookie contract.

I think Hines role is going to stay the same. I think Mack is only going to get a few touches a game to spell Taylor.  Macks job this year will be to prove he can still play and get that contract on another team in 22.

[Myles]

58 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Tough decisions always need to be made.  It's easy letting guys walk when the talent isn't very good.  But this is a pretty good team right now and there will be no way to afford them all.

 

That's why drafting quality players is key.  Might need to let Hines go.  For all we know they might decide to let Mack go.  

I don't expect Mack to be back at all.   He hasn't gotten the big pay day yet and if he does well this season, he'll get a good pay day on another team.  I expect him to get 8-10 carries a game.  

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, gspdx said:

 

Tough decisions always need to be made.  It's easy letting guys walk when the talent isn't very good.  But this is a pretty good team right now and there will be no way to afford them all.

 

That's why drafting quality players is key.  Might need to let Hines go.  For all we know they might decide to let Mack go.  

I’d much rather let Mack go over Hines. Hines is an elite pass catching back and also an underrated runner of the football.