Are The Colts Doing Enough to Hang With the Other AFC Contenders?

[The Fish]

2 hours ago, RollerColt said:

I would disagree, but then history has shown they seem to just not take the chances they’re given. I mean, Mahomes was injured and suddenly the Chiefs were beatable, but the Browns just couldn’t score or do anything with the opportunity. 
 

At some they’ve got to put together a winning team though, I mean from a probability standpoint it’s bound to happen (though it could take 100 years, sorry Cubs fans!). 

Don't disagree about the macro point, but I'm really sticking it to the team as constructed right now. There's a handful of guys I don't think can succeed at winning a Super Bowl for team continuity reasons. Then there's Baker and I simply don't think he's the guy. He's way more middle of the road, than the engine of a Super Bowl winner. 

 

Obviously, if I'm wrong, I'll take the beatings- but I'm not going to be- on this point! 

[Yoshinator]

18 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Don't disagree about the macro point, but I'm really sticking it to the team as constructed right now. There's a handful of guys I don't think can succeed at winning a Super Bowl for team continuity reasons. Then there's Baker and I simply don't think he's the guy. He's way more middle of the road, than the engine of a Super Bowl winner. 

 

Obviously, if I'm wrong, I'll take the beatings- but I'm not going to be- on this point! 

I've read your posts on the Browns (especially Baker), and it seems to me that you are one of those older fans who believes players should "pay their dues". They should have to play a certain number of years before earning respect. You obviously aren't picking against Mahomes because he has made two SBs and won one. You aren't picking against Allen because he has dominated already and is the 2nd best QB in the AFC. You won't pick against the Colts even though we haven't won a playoff game since 2018. That leaves the Browns.

 

The Browns don't have to have an elite QB to win a SB, they have the best 1/2 combination of RBs in the league in Chubb and Hunt, a very good QB in Mayfield, a solid offense, and a very good defense now. They have improved at the HC and GM position as well. Even if they don't win a SB, they will always be in the hunt as of this point, and they are certainly in the same tier as us with much less risk.

 

All I'm saying is, don't be surprised if they win the division this year and make a run in the playoffs. They are easily a top team in the AFC, and they match up well against the Chiefs. They have the running game to keep Mahomes off the field, and the EDGE rushers to put pressure on him.

[bleevit]

On 6/18/2021 at 2:36 PM, Four2itus said:

Enough? Wut? The front office is doing a great job of building depth, youth, family, belief, and inner strength to this Colts team. If one can't see that and marvel at what's being built................shrug?

I cannot agree more. The Colts organization has put together a talented, hard working group of fine citizens we can support cheerfully. How the constant improvement is not obvious to all is beyond me. On a football note, while not household names, if this group of WRs doesn't have a good year I'm a monkey's uncle.

[The Fish]

11 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I've read your posts on the Browns (especially Baker), and it seems to me that you are one of those older fans who believes players should "pay their dues". They should have to play a certain number of years before earning respect. You obviously aren't picking against Mahomes because he has made two SBs and won one. You aren't picking against Allen because he has dominated already and is the 2nd best QB in the AFC. You won't pick against the Colts even though we haven't won a playoff game since 2018. That leaves the Browns.

 

The Browns don't have to have an elite QB to win a SB, they have the best 1/2 combination of RBs in the league in Chubb and Hunt, a very good QB in Mayfield, a solid offense, and a very good defense now. They have improved at the HC and GM position as well. Even if they don't win a SB, they will always be in the hunt as of this point, and they are certainly in the same tier as us with much less risk.

 

All I'm saying is, don't be surprised if they win the division this year and make a run in the playoffs. They are easily a top team in the AFC, and they match up well against the Chiefs. They have the running game to keep Mahomes off the field, and the EDGE rushers to put pressure on him.

 

 

I'm not an "older fan" who thinks guys should "pay their dues". Frankly, as practical matter in the NFL, I'm not really sure what that means. Either guys can play or they can't. "Pay their dues" is code for they're not ready, would by my assumption. None of that has anything to do with my opinion on Baker or what I think the Browns ceiling is. 

 

Somewhere between Myles Garrett, OBJ, Kareem Hunt and Bakers hilarious ego issue's- this isn't a recipe for anything long term. This isn't indictment on talent, it's understanding that the psychology of the players matters and how that trickles down the roll players, is what the team is. Those guys aren't winning squat.  

[Yoshinator]

10 hours ago, bleevit said:

I cannot agree more. The Colts organization has put together a talented, hard working group of fine citizens we can support cheerfully. How the constant improvement is not obvious to all is beyond me. On a football note, while not household names, if this group of WRs doesn't have a good year I'm a monkey's uncle.

I think a lot of people overlook the character part of our team since Ballard took over. Very rarely do any of our players get in trouble with the law (I think Denico was the only notable one). However, the one caveat with the strategy is how all-in Ballard goes for on character over talent. He has said that he will take a player with a lower ceiling if their character is top-notch. I'm curious and would love to see some research done by someone smarter than me to see if players that Ballard passed over since 2017 at the same position with worse character and higher ceilings have succeeded more for those teams then the players we chose with higher character.

[EastStreet]

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

It is obvious to my eyes that the corps as a pass catching unit has been better when a diminished TY with his professional route running, even if he’s not catching the balls himself, he’s occupying defenders and making correct reads which looks like it opens opened the O. But I don’t think any sentient being should believe e that tys positive effect would match Jones.  Even though their cap hits are similar.  I’ll leave the statistical analysis to dudes like you though.

While I agree TY draws doubles, etc., opening up others, I think we've also forced way too much to him. Especially the last couple of years. I've seen too much all-22 showing other WRs and TEs wide open, but the first read play calling was highly tilted towards TY. I know JB's progression issues were partly at fault, but I think Reich could have helped him more, making other pass catchers the first read. 

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

As to the PC draft, what I am saying is that he was probably never drafted to be as good as those 3 already are.  I’m almost certain that no one thought he’d ever put up the numbers Metcalf has already.

I have zero clue the point here? Campbell was one of the top rated WRs in the draft, plain and simple. 

 

NFL.com had them ranked like this.

1. DK - 6.8

2. Parris - 6.7

3. AJ Brown - 6.7

4. M Brown - 6.7

5. Deebo Samuel - 6.4

6. Ridley - 6.3

7. Harry - 6.3

 

And in 2019, we had already signed Funchess at X, and still needed a slot/Z guy, so their pick (Parris) made sense, and certainly meant to be "as good". Metcalf was viewed as an X. 

 

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

the injury thing is absolutely not what I’m talking about.  As far as I know there was no reason to think the dude would miss most of his 1st 2 seasons.  
 

im speculating because I. Like to do that and feel that is much of the fun of discussing stuff on athletic boards derives from what if’s,  but I don’t think he was drafted to produce 2200 yds and 17 TDs in his first 2 seasons like metcalf has and think it’s patently obvious that this is the case and we would have been better off drafting DK. 
 

so I don’t know what you call that other than a mistake or Blunder.

Do you really think folks though DK was going to produce like that? LOL, come on man. He wasn't take till the last pick in the second round. So almost zero teams thought he would. I think you've come down with a very very serious case of hindsight lol. 

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

now I wouldn’t be shocked necessarily if his does turn out to be as good as those 3, BUT I don’t think he was talked about that way by the team.  

when he was drafted I thought there were glaring red flags.  Now I don’t watch much college and even when I did I can freely admit that I was not particularly good at seeing how the player would translate in the NFL, but after Colts players are drafted I study them pretty intensely.  He was described  as a project gadget type of player with that athleticism and I thought o know he’s Harvin, or Tavon Austin, ie. never going to be a consistent contributor in the passing game, ie.  fools gold.  Looking over his college stats I was particularly unimpressed with the 11 yard average per reception.  I would have thought a guy like him at OSU would average at least 15 if not 18 or 20 YpR. To me this was a tremendous red flag with a guy with a 4.3 40.  Because it strongly supports  the idea guy isn’t good at getting open and ain’t good at routes and/releases knowing that OSU plays several teams that are completely overmatched by their  talen and PC had least good qbing while He was there.

I'm guessing you don't know OSU's O... but to give you the 2 second overview, they have a very defined system for WRs. It's why a lot of draft experts and teams are challenged at times projecting OSU WRs. McLaurin was their deep guy. And yes, his YPC was great, but he only had 700 yards. Parris was the slot, and did exactly what he was supposed to do, and did it very well (1000+ yards). He was the meat and potatoes guy, while McLaurin was the outside race car.

 

So that's not a flag at all. So what are these "glaring red flags" that you speak of? 

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

so anyway, again Cub Fan paranoia but I expected him to be pretty busty.  He showed very little his rookie year before he was injured.  And yes luck quit and we had an incompetent passer of the football, but he wasn’t getting much Playing time either.  However I reserve all judgement on rookie WRs because apparently it’s hard to be good as a rookie although metcalf, and mxlaurin were great and Johnson was very good.

Like DK, nobody predicted McLaurin would be this good this fast. He wasn't taken till the 3rd round, and was graded as the 20th best WR......

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

we went to camp a couple of days in 2019 and it was fairly windy, and after seeing him struggle fielding punts, I said to my son, he’ll never return a kick for this team.  And it was talked about how his skill set could make him a dangerous returner.

Campbell was drafted to be a staring slot year one, that would work his way outside to Z (per Ballard/Reich pressers). You don't typically want your starting WRs returning punts. That's why it's mostly handed by depth WRs or DBs.

On 6/28/2021 at 9:59 AM, Nickster said:

 

So for me personally, I perceived glaring red flags,  BUt then during that one game last year when he was looking really sporty on those long crossers, I was like ok yeah I get it now.  With our protection, he’s not going to need to be a good route runner because he’s going to have time using that speed on those long crossers and will flash open a lot when the QB has so much time to patiently wait.

 

so what is my point if you are still tracking with this ramble?  I think he might be a good player for us, even though he can’t field a punt, it’s fairly unlikely that he is going to be a consistent deep producer, and is probably not going to be a better player than those other 3 guys.  
 

so l like the dude and could see him really blossoming and being a good to great system type of receiver, but we would be better off with any of those other 3 guys, even ignoring the injuries and missed time IMO.

When he has played, he's played very good. And he's been priority target based on his targets. So I think it's fair to say they drafted him with high expectations. 

[EastStreet]

On 6/28/2021 at 10:28 AM, throwing BBZ said:

 

  The fact that Smith didn't give up a sack shows Rivers didn't have a ton of time. Rivers was firing the ball out somewhere near 2.3ish for a Reason.
Kelly, Glow, nor Smith are much more than average pass blockers. They get beat.

Well that's some creative logic. Smith doesn't give up sack, is an indicator Rivers didn't have time....???? Holy cow I hope you're not serious. 

 

Rivers has always had a low time to throw. His 2020 TTT was 2.52 (6th). He was 5th the year before and has a long history of low TTTs. ....... , and he had an awful OL in 2019 with LAC. 

 

I agree Glow is average in the PB area, and much better run blocking. Kelly is decent, but not to the level he is paid. Smith however gets the grades, and passes the eye test too.

 

 

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

While I agree TY draws doubles, etc., opening up others, I think we've also forced way too much to him. Especially the last couple of years. I've seen too much all-22 showing other WRs and TEs wide open, but the first read play calling was highly tilted towards TY. I know JB's progression issues were partly at fault, but I think Reich could have helped him more, making other pass catchers the first read. 

I have zero clue the point here? Campbell was one of the top rated WRs in the draft, plain and simple. 

 

NFL.com had them ranked like this.

1. DK - 6.8

2. Parris - 6.7

3. AJ Brown - 6.7

4. M Brown - 6.7

5. Deebo Samuel - 6.4

6. Ridley - 6.3

7. Harry - 6.3

 

And in 2019, we had already signed Funchess at X, and still needed a slot/Z guy, so their pick (Parris) made sense, and certainly meant to be "as good". Metcalf was viewed as an X. 

 

Do you really think folks though DK was going to produce like that? LOL, come on man. He wasn't take till the last pick in the second round. So almost zero teams thought he would. I think you've come down with a very very serious case of hindsight lol. 

I'm guessing you don't know OSU's O... but to give you the 2 second overview, they have a very defined system for WRs. It's why a lot of draft experts and teams are challenged at times projecting OSU WRs. McLaurin was their deep guy. And yes, his YPC was great, but he only had 700 yards. Parris was the slot, and did exactly what he was supposed to do, and did it very well (1000+ yards). He was the meat and potatoes guy, while McLaurin was the outside race car.

 

So that's not a flag at all. So what are these "glaring red flags" that you speak of? 

Like DK, nobody predicted McLaurin would be this good this fast. He wasn't taken till the 3rd round, and was graded as the 20th best WR......

Campbell was drafted to be a staring slot year one, that would work his way outside to Z (per Ballard/Reich pressers). You don't typically want your starting WRs returning punts. That's why it's mostly handed by depth WRs or DBs.

When he has played, he's played very good. And he's been priority target based on his targets. So I think it's fair to say they drafted him with high expectations. 

Who cares what predraft ratings are for nfl.com?  Or any other teams, GMs, grandmas predraft ratings are.  That’s irrelevant.  Utterly irrelevant.
to me you are over complicating a simple issue.  Taking unexpected injuries that had no indicators while a draftee was in college out of the equation, it’s pretty simple.  He who drafts the better player wins.  Nothing else matters IMO.  The only thing that matters is post draft rankings East.

so if in fact those 3 guys turn  out to be better than PC, then it was not a great draft pick.  it’s a GMs job to select the best players.  It’s hard, and unforgiving but they get a handsome paycheck for doing so.  It doesn’t matter what they thought, it matters what happens.  Period.  That’s a GMS job.
 

here is an excerpt from one of numerous articles that project pC to be a deep threat.

 

“This year, Colts second-round pick Parris Campbell — who is a skill-position player — is getting a lot of people excited so far this summer, but Rookie of the Year levels of excited?

According to NFL executives who spoke with Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, it's a possibility.

Miller polled several front-office evaluators around the NFL to get their early choices for 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year notoriety. Coming in as an honorable mention selection was Campbell:

"Put a speedy wide receiver in a wide-open offense with a great quarterback, and you have to consider postseason awards for him. Parris Campbell is a legit threat deep down the field but also on JET sweeps and as a yards-after-catch player. If Andrew Luck takes a liking to the former Ohio State receiver, he could post the numbers to run away with the award."

 

here is an article excerpt mentioning his punt return potential.

 

“Campbell had one reception for one yard and one carry for seven yards in Sunday's loss to the Chargers. He played 18 snaps on offense in his professional debut. He also averaged 22 yards on two kick returns.

Campbell had a minimal role in the offense Week 1, but he could get more playing time with Devin Funchess breaking a collarbone in the loss. It was mildly surprising that Campbell emerged as the kickoff returner, and it was thought he could return punts, “so he'll have some extra value in the return game.”

WHy would Indy have him fiielding punts in camp unless they were seeing if he could be a PR? And dude the list of great  WRs who returned punts at least at the beginning of their careers is long including Antonio Brown and Ty Hilton.  The list is long and distinguished of Wr who returned punts early.

I knew I didn’t make this stuff up.

 

hindsight is the name of the game for GMs.  It doesn’t matter who thought what for what ever reason.  The job is to wade through that morass and pick out the best players, with the exception as I said of catastrophic, unpredictable Injuries such as the weird play that took PCs knee last year.

 

but like I said I think he might be a good player for us, just not as good as the other 3 guys.  I wouldn’t be shocked but I’d be surprised.  Get Diante Johnson on your PpR fantasy team this year East.

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

26 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Who cares what predraft ratings are for nfl.com?  Or any other teams, GMs, grandmas predraft ratings are.  That’s irrelevant.  Utterly irrelevant.
to me you are over complicating a simple issue.  Taking unexpected injuries that had no indicators while a draftee was in college out of the equation, it’s pretty simple.  He who drafts the better player wins.  Nothing else matters IMO.  The only thing that matters is post draft rankings East.

You specifically just talked about pre-draft expectations of those WRs mentioned. You said nobody expected PC to do much, like they expected DK, or TM, or other to do. 

 

I've just provided data that shows PC was rated higher, and taken earlier than the ones you played up.... That would suggest expectations were actually much higher for PC, which directly counters your point.

 

Quote

so if in fact those 3 guys turn  out to be better than PC, then it was not a great draft pick.  it’s a GMs job to select the best players.  It’s hard, and unforgiving but they get a handsome paycheck for doing so.  It doesn’t matter what they thought, it matters what happens.  Period.  That’s a GMS job.

One word..... Injury...

 

GMs can't predict an injury unless there is an injury history. And there was none.

Quote

 

here is an excerpt from one of numerous articles that project pC to be a deep threat.

 

“This year, Colts second-round pick Parris Campbell — who is a skill-position player — is getting a lot of people excited so far this summer, but Rookie of the Year levels of excited?

According to NFL executives who spoke with Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, it's a possibility.

Miller polled several front-office evaluators around the NFL to get their early choices for 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year notoriety. Coming in as an honorable mention selection was Campbell:

"Put a speedy wide receiver in a wide-open offense with a great quarterback, and you have to consider postseason awards for him. Parris Campbell is a legit threat deep down the field but also on JET sweeps and as a yards-after-catch player. If Andrew Luck takes a liking to the former Ohio State receiver, he could post the numbers to run away with the award."

 

here is an article excerpt mentioning his punt return potential.

 

“Campbell had one reception for one yard and one carry for seven yards in Sunday's loss to the Chargers. He played 18 snaps on offense in his professional debut. He also averaged 22 yards on two kick returns.

Campbell had a minimal role in the offense Week 1, but he could get more playing time with Devin Funchess breaking a collarbone in the loss. It was mildly surprising that Campbell emerged as the kickoff returner, and it was thought he could return punts, “so he'll have some extra value in the return game.”

WHy would Indy have him fiielding punts in camp unless they were seeing if he could be a PR? And dude the list of great  WRs who returned punts at least at the beginning of their careers is long including Antonio Brown and Ty Hilton.  The list is long and distinguished of Wr who returned punts early.

I knew I didn’t make this stuff up.

Nobody said he wasn't a deep threat. I said that was not his roll at OSU. Given his speed, it's pretty obvious he could.

And nobody said he could not return punts or kicks. I said teams don't typically have their starting WRs doing it. 

 

Not sure how either of those issues relate to him being a bad choice by Ballard?

Quote

 

hindsight is the name of the game for GMs.  It doesn’t matter who thought what for what ever reason.  The job is to wade through that morass and pick out the best players, with the exception as I said of catastrophic, unpredictable Injuries such as the weird play that took PCs knee last year.

 

but like I said I think he might be a good player for us, just not as good as the other 3 guys.  I wouldn’t be shocked but I’d be surprised.  Get Diante Johnson on your PpR fantasy team this year East.

 

Based on his targets when healthy, and success, I expect him to be good if healthy. How good, that's anyone's question. 

 

And again, nobody predicted DK or McLaurin would do what they did. Folks got goo goo eyed over DK because of his measurements after the combine, but folks still doubted him translating. And not sure if you're aware, but he never had a 700 yard or more season in college, so expectations were not crazy to begin with. Same with McLaurin. His rise had a lot to do with WFT simply having a horrible WR room. Take a look at their pass catchers in 19 and 20, and you'll understand. I bet you can't name any other WR on the team.

[Nickster]

Erased.  Ima doofus can’t work a a computer.

[Nickster]

21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You specifically just talked about pre-draft expectations of those WRs mentioned. You said nobody expected PC to do much, like they expected DK, or TM, or other to do. 

I said they didn’t expect him to gain 2200 and catch 17 like DK.  He wasn’t a starter his rookie year until other injuries and not after g@me 1 when we lost Funcheese.  That to me indicates that they did nit expect him to produce that much that early

 

Quote

I've just provided data that shows PC was rated higher, and taken earlier than the ones you played up.... That would suggest expectations were actually much higher for PC, which directly counters your point.

 

One word..... Injury...

you didn’t produce data you produced an internet services rating for him.  I looked at draftnetworks and they had him rated as 3rd rounder so the  nfl.com s rankings were not agreed with by Every NFL team since he was projected as a late 1st early 2nd.  And like I said IMo that’s all comepletly irrelevant.  Only post draft  matters.  Everyone including seattle was wrong about DK.  He should have been the 1st drafted offensive skill player and If you redrafted he’d be the 3rd overall pick IMo after Allen and Bosa.  Look I don’t profess to know how to make the correct pick but that’s not the point.  Just because everyone else was also wrong doesn’t mean you made the correct choice.

 

 

Quote

 

GMs can't predict an injury unless there is an injury history. And there was none.

Nobody said he wasn't a deep threat. I said that was not his roll at OSU. Given his speed, it's pretty obvious he could.

And nobody said he could not return punts or kicks. I said teams don't typically have their starting WRs doing it. 

 

 

Many of the articles said he should be a threat.  He’s not a particularly good route guy.

 

Quote

Not sure how either of those issues relate to him being a bad choice by Ballard?

Based on his targets when healthy, and success, I expect him to be good if healthy. How good, that's anyone's question. 
 

 

 

jeez East are you arguing with the mouse in your pocket?  I said after watching the JAx game last year I expect him to be good and am not judging him because of his injuries.

I think we might have a dude just not DK or DJ.  I’ve never really focused on mclaurin so have no strong opinion about him but his numbers of yards are top very few players in history in 1st 2 seasons.

 

 

Quote

 

And again, nobody predicted DK or McLaurin would do what they did. Folks got goo goo eyed over DK because of his measurements after the combine, but folks still doubted him translating. And not sure if you're aware, but he never had a 700 yard or more season in college, so expectations were not crazy to begin with. Same with McLaurin. His rise had a lot to do with WFT simply having a horrible WR room. Take a look at their pass catchers in 19 and 20, and you'll understand. I bet you can't name any other WR on the team.

So what?  Assuming I am correct that DK and Johnson are going to be better players which is not assured but for arguments sake assume it.  They were wrong and PC was not the correct draft pick.  

 

 

 

you talked a lot about drafting which guy for which position.  Doesn’t CB preach BPA?

Oops.  Computer illiterate don’t know why it posted twice when I was trying to edit.

[EastStreet]

4 hours ago, Nickster said:

I said they didn’t expect him to gain 2200 and catch 17 like DK.  He wasn’t a starter his rookie year until other injuries and not after g@me 1 when we lost Funcheese.  That to me indicates that they did nit expect him to produce that much that early

 

you didn’t produce data you produced an internet services rating for him.  I looked at draftnetworks and they had him rated as 3rd rounder so the  nfl.com s rankings were not agreed with by Every NFL team since he was projected as a late 1st early 2nd.  And like I said IMo that’s all comepletly irrelevant.  Only post draft  matters.  Everyone including seattle was wrong about DK.  He should have been the 1st drafted offensive skill player and If you redrafted he’d be the 3rd overall pick IMo after Allen and Bosa.  Look I don’t profess to know how to make the correct pick but that’s not the point.  Just because everyone else was also wrong doesn’t mean you made the correct choice.

 

Does anyone expect a rook to gain 2200 and 17?  lol. 

Campbell was tagged as starting slot prior to the regular season. You probably don't remember, but he had issues in camp (I think abs), which is why they slow rolled him. He was leading in targets by like week 4 or 5.... That's a pretty clear indicator of their expectations.

 

Information/facts = data. 

Here's the definition....

"facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis."

 

NFL.com is the leader in draft analysis, and has been for a long time. ESPN also had him ranked ahead of where he was picked. Those are the two biggest names.... 

 

4 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

Many of the articles said he should be a threat.  He’s not a particularly good route guy.

 

He's barely played, so how can you say he's good or bad at routes. He also was a slot at OSU, and was at minimum very good on slot routes

4 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

jeez East are you arguing with the mouse in your pocket?  I said after watching the JAx game last year I expect him to be good and am not judging him because of his injuries.

I think we might have a dude just not DK or DJ.  I’ve never really focused on mclaurin so have no strong opinion about him but his numbers of yards are top very few players in history in 1st 2 seasons.

 

So what?  Assuming I am correct that DK and Johnson are going to be better players which is not assured but for arguments sake assume it.  They were wrong and PC was not the correct draft pick.  

 

you talked a lot about drafting which guy for which position.  Doesn’t CB preach BPA?

Oops.  Computer illiterate don’t know why it posted twice when I was trying to edit.

Campbell is simply an unknown. All of your pining over other WRs is 100% hindsight. 

 

BPA? If you have Mahomes, and the BPA is a QB, do you take the QB?

BPA is what you strive to do, but is impacted by need.

[Nickster]

13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Does anyone expect a rook to gain 2200 and 17?  lol. 

Campbell was tagged as starting slot prior to the regular season. You probably don't remember, but he had issues in camp (I think abs), which is why they slow rolled him. He was leading in targets by like week 4 or 5.... That's a pretty clear indicator of their expectations.

I don’t remember the camp abs. That might explain some. But you  are cherry picking here like we all do to support our subjective opinions.  See East the dude bottom line had 18 receptions on 24 targets for 127 yds one TD and he had 2 fumbles on those and had significant playing time in 6 games which makes a quantifiable argument in his favor kinda friggin silly.

 

 

Quote

 

Information/facts = data. 

Here's the definition....

"facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis."

 

NFL.com is the leader in draft analysis, and has been for a long time. ESPN also had him ranked ahead of where he was picked. Those are the two biggest names.... 

Much of the data that determines draft boards is subjective and not fact based.  subjective Data in other words. They have to ask questions like how will this Will form this podunk college playing little sisters of the poor do in an NFL d?  They look at his measurable, film, but then they have to subjectively decide whether or not he will project to the next level.  
 

if you think that nfl war rooms follow NFL.com for predraft eval then I think we need to ask your wife to remove the Sharps from your house.  There is an obvious wiiiiddeeeee range of context when evaluating talent and counting stats in various ncaa football games is not that big a part of it.  Body and combine measurable are huge but often misleading too.  It’s largely and MOSTLY QUALITAITVE which is CLEARLY EVIDENT by the massive difference of opinion in NFL war rooms in draft boards

Quote

 

 

He's barely played, so how can you say he's good or bad at routes. He also was a slot at OSU, and was at minimum very good on slot routes

Campbell is simply an unknown. All of your pining over other WRs is 100% hindsight. 

 

I don’t know if he runs bad routes or not but most articles were very tepid on his route running.  I’ve told you many times I don’t watch much college FB unless PU or IU are decent.  

Quote

BPA? If you have Mahomes, and the BPA is a QB, do you take the QB?

BPA is what you strive to do, but is impacted by need.

Agreed.  

[Dogg63]

57 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I don’t remember the camp abs.

It was a car accident on his way driving to training camp that put him in the concussion protocol.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/colts-wr-parris-campbell-in-concussion-protocol-after-car-accident

[Nickster]

Oh AND I LIKE PARRIS CAMPBELL.  ASSUMING HEALTH I THINK HE WILL BE A GOOD IF NOT GRAT PLAYER.

 

I just wish we had Metcalf or Johnson instead.

[throwing BBZ]

23 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Oh AND I LIKE PARRIS CAMPBELL.  ASSUMING HEALTH I THINK HE WILL BE A GOOD IF NOT GRAT PLAYER.

 

I just wish we had Metcalf or Johnson instead.

 

  Couldn't we all go back and look at all the woulda coulda shoulda's?
 Good grief Nick, start a Topic for your kind... so we can Ignore it!
BTW... we Have our Metcalf!!! Maybe even 3 of them.
 NO, please Don't roll out the garbage that they are not Identical to your dream child. Let's see what their combined yards and TD's are this year and next to compare them.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  Couldn't we all go back and look at all the woulda coulda shoulda's?
 Good grief Nick, start a Topic for your kind... so we can Ignore it!
BTW... we Have our Metcalf!!! Maybe even 3 of them.
 NO, please Don't roll out the garbage that they are not Identical to your dream child. Let's see what their combined yards and TD's are this year and next to compare them.

What are you babbling about?

 

how else do you judge draft picks other than hindsight?  Of course as I’ve said barring injury?

[Nickster]

I’m a computer ill*.  Can someone tell me how to add a signature At the bottom.  Spent too much time trying to figure it out.

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, Nickster said:

I don’t remember the camp abs. That might explain some. But you  are cherry picking here like we all do to support our subjective opinions.  See East the dude bottom line had 18 receptions on 24 targets for 127 yds one TD and he had 2 fumbles on those and had significant playing time in 6 games which makes a quantifiable argument in his favor kinda friggin silly.

 

 

Much of the data that determines draft boards is subjective and not fact based.  subjective Data in other words. They have to ask questions like how will this Will form this podunk college playing little sisters of the poor do in an NFL d?  They look at his measurable, film, but then they have to subjectively decide whether or not he will project to the next level.  
 

if you think that nfl war rooms follow NFL.com for predraft eval then I think we need to ask your wife to remove the Sharps from your house.  There is an obvious wiiiiddeeeee range of context when evaluating talent and counting stats in various ncaa football games is not that big a part of it.  Body and combine measurable are huge but often misleading too.  It’s largely and MOSTLY QUALITAITVE which is CLEARLY EVIDENT by the massive difference of opinion in NFL war rooms in draft boards

I don’t know if he runs bad routes or not but most articles were very tepid on his route running.  I’ve told you many times I don’t watch much college FB unless PU or IU are decent.  

Agreed.  

Dude, your spinning away and away from the original conversation.

 

Fact is, and to simplify, Colts expectations of Campbell were high. It was very obvious by his minutes and targets when healthy, his starting spot out of the gate as a rook, and by simply listening to Reich and Ballard post draft and leading up to the season. Teams across the board passed on the guys that your hindsight has fallen in love with. Campbell has done nothing, except get injured, to make anyone think he will develop into a good WR. 

 

Sorry about the abs, that was later 2019. I believe someone else posted it was the car wreck, but it was actually a hamstring in the summer/camp.

.

Here's the blurb on the other issues (abs were later).

"He played in just 7 games as a rookie in 2019, missing 2 with an abdominal injury, 4 with a fractured hand and 3 with a broken foot. He was also sidelined that summer with a hamstring issue."

 

And data is data. Data can be a collection of subjective or objective info, pure stats, or a lot of things. NFL.com and ESPN are considered the top two sources for draft grading. Are they perfect, no one is. But those two are considered the best. And it just so happens the Colts war room agreed too. And no war room / team thought as highly as the guys that your hindsight is gushing over.

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, your spinning away and away from the original conversation.

 

Fact is, and to simplify, Colts expectations of Campbell were high. It was very obvious by his minutes and targets when healthy, his starting spot out of the gate as a rook, and by simply listening to Reich and Ballard post draft and leading up to the season. Teams across the board passed on the guys that your hindsight has fallen in love with. Campbell has done nothing, except get injured, to make anyone think he will develop into a good WR. 

 

Sorry about the abs, that was later 2019. I believe someone else posted it was the car wreck, but it was actually a hamstring in the summer/camp.

.

Here's the blurb on the other issues (abs were later).

"He played in just 7 games as a rookie in 2019, missing 2 with an abdominal injury, 4 with a fractured hand and 3 with a broken foot. He was also sidelined that summer with a hamstring issue."

 

And data is data. Data can be a collection of subjective or objective info, pure stats, or a lot of things. NFL.com and ESPN are considered the top two sources for draft grading. Are they perfect, no one is. But those two are considered the best. And it just so happens the Colts war room agreed too. And no war room / team thought as highly as the guys that your hindsight is gushing over.

So they were all wrong East.  It happens.  
 

And my main point is it’s subjective and your ole stats based routine looks kinda silly Willy.

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

So they were all wrong East.  It happens.  
 

And my main point is it’s subjective and your ole stats based routine looks kinda silly Willy.

 

GMs, analyst, etc... , they are wrong all the time. You brought up expectations, so there isn't really a better indicator for a drafted player (when it comes to expectations) than where they were drafted, and where they were ranked. 

 

When talking Campbell, you really can't talk stats due to his lack of availability. It's pretty much all subjective. But I like to stay on topic instead of wandering... 

[Nickster]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, your spinning away and away from the original conversation.

 

Fact is, and to simplify, Colts expectations of Campbell were high. It was very obvious by his minutes and targets when healthy, his starting spot out of the gate as a rook, and by simply listening to Reich and Ballard post draft and leading up to the season. Teams across the board passed on the guys that your hindsight has fallen in love with. Campbell has done nothing, except get injured, to make anyone think he will develop into a good WR. 

 

Sorry about the abs, that was later 2019. I believe someone else posted it was the car wreck, but it was actually a hamstring in the summer/camp.

.

Here's the blurb on the other issues (abs were later).

"He played in just 7 games as a rookie in 2019, missing 2 with an abdominal injury, 4 with a fractured hand and 3 with a broken foot. He was also sidelined that summer with a hamstring issue."

 

And data is data. Data can be a collection of subjective or objective info, pure stats, or a lot of things. NFL.com and ESPN are considered the top two sources for draft grading. Are they perfect, no one is. But those two are considered the best. And it just so happens the Colts war room agreed too. And no war room / team thought as highly as the guys that your hindsight is gushing over.

Well East, I will spin any way I want to in the convo.  This is another one of your little tactics.  Now I’m off topic.

 

So they were all wrong East.  It happens.  this draft was considered weak at WRand it’s been anything but.  Might actually prove to one of the best ever if it keeps trending the way it’s going.  How could They possibly all be wrong?  It is at the end of the day unmeasurable objectively. 

 

And my main point is it’s subjective and your ole stats based routine looks kinda silly Willy.

 

just have some fun East.  It’s just sports arguing.  It’s not life.  

 

 

 

[Nickster]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

GMs, analyst, etc... , they are wrong all the time. You brought up expectations, so there isn't really a better indicator for a drafted player (when it comes to expectations) than where they were drafted, and where they were ranked. 

 

When talking Campbell, you really can't talk stats due to his lack of availability. It's pretty much all subjective. But I like to stay on topic instead of wandering... 

There has never been a GM in history that had a first round pick, who was expecting a Wr to put up 17 tds and that yardage in the 1st two years East who would wait till the 2nd.  That would be asinine.  
 

[Nickster]

Just now, Nickster said:

There has never been a GM in history that had a first round pick, who was expecting a Wr to put up 17 tds and that yardage in the 1st two years East who would wait till the 2nd.  That would be asinine.  
 

 

[Nickster]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Dude, your spinning away and away from the original conversation.

 

Fact is, and to simplify, Colts expectations of Campbell were high. It was very obvious by his minutes and targets when healthy, his starting spot out of the gate as a rook, and by simply listening to Reich and Ballard post draft and leading up to the season. Teams across the board passed on the guys that your hindsight has fallen in love with. Campbell has done nothing, except get injured, to make anyone think he will develop into a good WR. 

 

Sorry about the abs, that was later 2019. I believe someone else posted it was the car wreck, but it was actually a hamstring in the summer/camp.

.

Here's the blurb on the other issues (abs were later).

"He played in just 7 games as a rookie in 2019, missing 2 with an abdominal injury, 4 with a fractured hand and 3 with a broken foot. He was also sidelined that summer with a hamstring issue."

 

And data is data. Data can be a collection of subjective or objective info, pure stats, or a lot of things. NFL.com and ESPN are considered the top two sources for draft grading. Are they perfect, no one is. But those two are considered the best. And it just so happens the Colts war room agreed too. And no war room / team thought as highly as the guys that your hindsight is gushing over.

So my first Post on this thread is italicized  after the following post from YOU in a thread entitled Are The Colts Doing Enough to Hang With the Other AFC Contenders?

 

“While I agree Henry may be used up in a few years, I'm not sure the Titans will fade away. They have some good pieces not named Henry and Jones. Their OL is top 10 in run blocking, and should be improved when Radunz delelops. IMO, they had a pretty solid draft last year which should pay early dividends (at least their first 4).

 

Jax could turn around really quick. We can't beat them regularly when they're bad, so their rise is a bit concerning to me. They've added somegreat pieces not named Lawrence. To me, if he develops quickly, they'll compete right away. A lot also hinges on their new coach, which I think isalmost as important as the QB situation, if not more. 

 

Houston needs to trade Watson and start over. They purged the frontoffice and coaches for the most part, time to purge the roster. They could rebound quickly with the capital they get from Watson.”

 

 

Watsons legal trouble is going to prevent that.  Unless he’s exonerated which won’t happen any time soon, hes not going to have much trade value.

 

And the YOU claim I am off topic.  
 

get a grip young man.  

 

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

2 hours ago, Nickster said:

Well East, I will spin any way I want to in the convo.  This is another one of your little tactics.  Now I’m off topic.

 

So they were all wrong East.  It happens.  this draft was considered weak at WRand it’s been anything but.  Might actually prove to one of the best ever if it keeps trending the way it’s going.  How could They possibly all be wrong?  It is at the end of the day unmeasurable objectively. 

 

And my main point is it’s subjective and your ole stats based routine looks kinda silly Willy.

 

just have some fun East.  It’s just sports arguing.  It’s not life.  

 

 

 

spin away. you be you.

2 hours ago, Nickster said:

There has never been a GM in history that had a first round pick, who was expecting a Wr to put up 17 tds and that yardage in the 1st two years East who would wait till the 2nd.  That would be asinine.  
 

yet you used it as an example.

2 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

talk about spinning (the whole other thread lead in...).

 

[Nickster]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

spin away. you be you.

yet you used it as an example.

 

The original thing I said about Metcalf is that his production is likely already better than what the Colts expected for PC.  If PC ever produces 12 TD,rhen we are in business.

 

I said that to show that I wish we had that dude.  No big deal.  Pretty mild IMo.  Wouldn’t you like to have DK?  If not why the hell not?.

 

blunder is a strong word but it means mistake.  In this context of drafting a simple specific definition is a draft mistake when you draft a guy earlier who turns out not to be as good as a player who is drafted later.  I personally can’t understand how anyone would have a different definition.  Of course there are many caveats especially catastrophic injury but simple in simple Confucian style, he who drafts the better player wins.  

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

talk about spinning (the whole other thread lead in...).

 

 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

On 6/19/2021 at 8:05 PM, EastStreet said:

While I agree Henry may be used up in a few years, I'm not sure the Titans will fade away. They have some good pieces not named Henry and Jones. Their OL is top 10 in run blocking, and should be improved when Radunz delelops. IMO, they had a pretty solid draft last year which should pay early dividends (at least their first 4).

 

Jax could turn around really quick. We can't beat them regularly when they're bad, so their rise is a bit concerning to me. They've added some great pieces not named Lawrence. To me, if he develops quickly, they'll compete right away. A lot also hinges on their new coach, which I think is almost as important as the QB situation, if not more. 

 

Houston needs to trade Watson and start over. They purged the front office and coaches for the most part, time to purge the roster. They could rebound quickly with the capital they get from Watson.

 

 

great post of reality

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

great post of reality

I enjoyed PFF's roster ranking.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-roster-rankings-for-all-32-teams-for-2021-strengths-weaknesses-and-x-factors-for-every-teams-starting-lineup

 

TN is pretty strong all over, at least comparing to Indy. Jax IMO, is a few pieces away, primarily on the OL and DL, but they have some potentially good young pieces. Chaisson IMO will take a nice leap this year. I also think Walker Little will help the OL a ton. Tufele was a great DL value in the 4th IMO. If the coach/QB combo is for real, it could be worrisome. Houston, like I said just needs to blow things up and start over. Indy has some great pieces, but have some holes and some pretty clear question marks. Wentz, DE, and DB are all wildcards. I'm pretty confident at least in QB getting back to form.

[NewColtsFan]

The question is…..   did we do enough thus off-season?

 

Let’s revisit our off-season to-do list. 
 

— Acquire starting QB.

— Acquire Left Tackle

— Acquire Pass Rushx2

— Acquire more weapons for Wentz

— Acquire more OL depth 

— Acquire secondary help

 

The first three issues are only the hardest issues to address in all of football.  
 

Oh, and they had to do all this in a year where the NFL Salary cap went down sharply due to Covid.   I don’t need to list all our moves,  we all know what we did.   I’m not sure what more we could do?   We no longer have top-3 money.  Spotrac and OTC show the Colts at 9th and 11th for available money.  We’ve spent our money.   The rest is going toward signing our own and for needed in-season transactions.   That’s it. 
 

I don’t see how we could’ve done more?  

[OffensivelyPC]

BRO, THIS AIN'T A BIKE RACE.  WHY YOU ACTIN LIKE WE SHOULD BE DOING ANYTING TO BE IN FRONT OF ANOTHER TEAM?   JUST WIN YO!

[BornHoosier]

Ballard's biggest weakness so far is not going all in and signing that one true difference maker that this team needs to get over the HUMP vs top teams.  I understand he is looking long term with the Salary Cap but sometimes you have to recognize that you have a window to compete before major extensions are due and you must add that FINAL piece to the roster to put you over the top!  If the Colts think they are going to pay 3 of our OL top dollar plus DB on the defensive line & DL at the LB position, that window has just closed so I see a 1-2 yr window that we must CAPITALIZE!!!  I was hoping for Julio Jones as I see our WR corps as the only weakness on our team but time will tell if I am right.  

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, BornHoosier said:

Ballard's biggest weakness so far is not going all in and signing that one true difference maker that this team needs to get over the HUMP vs top teams.  I understand he is looking long term with the Salary Cap but sometimes you have to recognize that you have a window to compete before major extensions are due and you must add that FINAL piece to the roster to put you over the top!  If the Colts think they are going to pay 3 of our OL top dollar plus DB on the defensive line & DL at the LB position, that window has just closed so I see a 1-2 yr window that we must CAPITALIZE!!!  I was hoping for Julio Jones as I see our WR corps as the only weakness on our team but time will tell if I am right.  

 

I'd call Buckner a difference maker. So was Rivers last year. Wentz could be now.

 

Jones really wasn't a fit (for our situation). Sure, he'd be nice to have, but he'd be an X WR, and you just drafted Pittman as your future X before last season. Do you think they'd sign Jones, and trade or sit Pittman so Julio gets reps? Or play either Pittman or Jones out of position? And signing a guy like Jones means you likely don't bring back TY due to costs, which would leave you a hole at Z/slot. 

[BornHoosier]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I'd call Buckner a difference maker. So was Rivers last year. Wentz could be now.

 

Jones really wasn't a fit (for our situation). Sure, he'd be nice to have, but he'd be an X WR, and you just drafted Pittman as your future X before last season. Do you think they'd sign Jones, and trade or sit Pittman so Julio gets reps? Or play either Pittman or Jones out of position? And signing a guy like Jones means you likely don't bring back TY due to costs, which would leave you a hole at Z/slot. 

I guess I'm not sold on our WR corps like some as TY is no longer a #1 option and Pittman Jr showed signs of a threat but didn't put up any kind of #'s to make you write in stone as a #1 wr!  If TY gets hurt, MPJr doesn't translate, your down to Zach Pascal and IR Paris Campbelll as a wr threat!!!  I guess my argument is that the probability of TY getting hurt and MPJ not translating to a #1 WR are pretty low and add to the odds of Paris making it past wk 5 are pretty slim!!!  Adding Julio, would've gave the wr position some sort of insurance once either Paris or TY goes down to injury, which is a sure thing!!!!

[BornHoosier]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

I'd call Buckner a difference maker. So was Rivers last year. Wentz could be now.

 

Jones really wasn't a fit (for our situation). Sure, he'd be nice to have, but he'd be an X WR, and you just drafted Pittman as your future X before last season. Do you think they'd sign Jones, and trade or sit Pittman so Julio gets reps? Or play either Pittman or Jones out of position? And signing a guy like Jones means you likely don't bring back TY due to costs, which would leave you a hole at Z/slot. 

Did TY help us in the playoff game vs Buffalo or was he not able to win contested receptions due to his size and lack of separation?  Julio gives you a physical presence that TY cant do and that is WIN the close contested catches!!!  The league is changing to the big wr's that can bully the db's much like AJ Brown and DJ Metcalf!  The smurfs are being weeded out as it takes a perfect pass to complete to these guys.  TY is a favorite for Colts Nation but I see a player who is done both physically and mentally!!!!  

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, BornHoosier said:

Did TY help us in the playoff game vs Buffalo or was he not able to win contested receptions due to his size and lack of separation?  Julio gives you a physical presence that TY cant do and that is WIN the close contested catches!!!  The league is changing to the big wr's that can bully the db's much like AJ Brown and DJ Metcalf!  The smurfs are being weeded out as it takes a perfect pass to complete to these guys.  TY is a favorite for Colts Nation but I see a player who is done both physically and mentally!!!!  

TYH was signed at a much earlier point in free agency.   His one year contract is mostly guaranteed.   Jones was signed about two months later.   We couldn’t cut TYH as his money was mostly guaranteed.   There simply wasn’t the money to sign Jones.   We’d already spent the vast majority of our money by then.   The rest is being saved for Leonard and Smith and maybe Nelson.   Jones was always a pipe dream. 

[Giddie Up]

On 6/18/2021 at 2:53 PM, philba101 said:

If we had enough weapons at this point we would at least have something to show for it. The Colts have not won a division title since 2014.  We have played in 3 playoff games and won one of them.  I can see the depth, the youth, the family as you say, but the window of opportunity is not indefinite. Look how many good years we had with Manning, but were only able to win one Superbowl. We have added a new quarterback and a rookie tight end. In my opinion (thank you Mr. Lebowski), that does not makes us demonstrably better than last year.

 

Exactly, Colts always building for the future that never comes. Other teams build for the future also. 13 years with P.Manning and one ring (close game) is so totally unaceptable,still. We have no future with this approach,reverse course, load up ,win now. Worse yet I've been a huge colts fan for 59 faithful years now and only 2 rings. I'm starting to lose my faith in this organization along with my time left on this planet. Stop fooling around already. Thank you.

[Dark Superman]

The Colts on paper are a very solid football team and plan on re-signing their star players and allowing their draft picks to come in right away instead of splurging on a handful of free agents that either are well into their 30's or are commanding big money contracts. The trade for Wentz was a no brainer and the Colts have enough around him on offense to compete with the rest of the AFC. Staying healthy and on the field is huge and no big money free agent or draft pick can help you if they aren't on the field. The defense has a lot of talent, but there's also a ton of unanswered questions, especially across the defensive line with everyone outside of Bunkner and Stewart. If Paye and Dayo can come in and make an impact year one and guys like Turay can stay on the field and continue to grow this defense can be a force to be reckoned with. Still need to see what guys like Banagu and Lewis can bring in year 3 as quality backups. Hopefully at least one of them flourish in 2021. I like the secondary as a whole but I'm not big on the depth at Safety and still have no idea what to expect from guys like Ya-Sin and Tell III. I'm hoping Dayo can return sometime in the middle of the season and by the end of the year he's making plays and showing us all why Chris Ballard took him 54th overall. The Titans are going to be a handful and don't sleep on the Jaguars. This is the most excited I've been for a season since 2018.

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, BornHoosier said:

I guess I'm not sold on our WR corps like some as TY is no longer a #1 option and Pittman Jr showed signs of a threat but didn't put up any kind of #'s to make you write in stone as a #1 wr!  If TY gets hurt, MPJr doesn't translate, your down to Zach Pascal and IR Paris Campbelll as a wr threat!!!  I guess my argument is that the probability of TY getting hurt and MPJ not translating to a #1 WR are pretty low and add to the odds of Paris making it past wk 5 are pretty slim!!!  Adding Julio, would've gave the wr position some sort of insurance once either Paris or TY goes down to injury, which is a sure thing!!!!

 

9 hours ago, BornHoosier said:

Did TY help us in the playoff game vs Buffalo or was he not able to win contested receptions due to his size and lack of separation?  Julio gives you a physical presence that TY cant do and that is WIN the close contested catches!!!  The league is changing to the big wr's that can bully the db's much like AJ Brown and DJ Metcalf!  The smurfs are being weeded out as it takes a perfect pass to complete to these guys.  TY is a favorite for Colts Nation but I see a player who is done both physically and mentally!!!!  

 

Consider the following

• Colts were 11th in passing yards, only 3 YPG off 9th. So we were a top 10ish passing team even with out conservative style O.
• We put up 300+ passing yards vs Buffalo, who only gave up on average 232 yards, and has a pass D ranked in the top half of the league.
• What has Pittman done to suggest he won't "translate"? He only started 8 games (still had 500 yards) his rook season due to that strange calve injury/inflammation that required surgery. He came on pretty well towards the end of the season even though IMO he was given grade school routes that were more TE in nature than X. And he had 90 yards vs Buffalo.... And only one drop the whole year.
• Julio isn't an insurance policy against TY and Parris... Again, they play different WR positions. Jones is an X, TY and Parris are slot/Z. If that's your main concern, then you'd want Ballard looking for a Z/slot type of WR, not an X like Julio. So please, stop with the Julio vs TY comps and arguments.
• Vs Buffalo, TY only got 5 targets. Pretty obvious it was Reich's game plan to go to the bigs (X and TE) a lot. Pittman and Dolye had a combined 19 targets and 160 yards. 
• In general, vs Buffalo, our passing game was not even close to our problem. We had 300+ passing yards. The biggest reason we lost that game was our bad pass D, and partially because Taylor's rushing was not as effective as it needed to be. But again,,,,, our passing O was pretty darn good that game. 
• AJ Brown is only 6 ft..... Not sure why you're grouping him with Metcalf. He's a bully-slot or Z guy. And Metcalf is a unicorn. He's very rare in terms of his measurables, so let's not act like every team has one... 
• Smurfs are being weeded out? Tyreek Hill says hello.... lol. There are plenty of 6ft and below WRs that are, and will continue to light things up. TY would likely fair much better in terms of yards if Reich would let him run Hill's routes. Do yourself a favor and look at TY's route charts on Nextgen, and compare them to Hill's.
• And lastly.... Julio isn't as fast as he once was. He's 32. He also had injury issues last year, only starting 9 games and catching 700ish yards. Big Xs like Julio age better because of size, but again, TY vs Julio comps don't make sense. And Pittman for the next 6-7 years is probably a safer bet than Julio the next two.

[Boondoggle]

Deciding factors re: the OP's questions above...

 

  Can LT hold up.  Wentz struggled and lost his job due to protections in particular how he handled the breakdowns, and his injury history is a risk on top of that.  LT holding up is a really big piece of the pie here.  If not then the Colts will be a second or third tier team at best.  They need to protect Wentz.

 

  Front seven potency in the rush.  Pass rush is a group effort, even though individual rushers do get most of the hoopla.  They're going to need to do better vs the top teams than they did last year, and better overall.  They have two big pieces coming in via the draft so we'll see and I am hopeful.

 

  Young players improving.  Look across this roster and you see a ton of young guys who need to step up.  To what extent they do that as a group is going to be that third heat.  This could be an entire thread discussion tbh.  I like our chances here too with most of them.

 

Buffalo and Kansas City are the standard this year in the playoffs.  They're the teams to beat.  Both have dynamic passers who can off-sched you to death.  But the good thing here is the Colts' defensive style is designed to frustrate guys like that.  The players just have to do better.  If they stop the run and rush the QB well, and the offense can protect Wentz that's the combo to get this roster into that final game or two and from there anything can happen.