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15 hours ago, Thebrashandthebold said:

I see a history of injury and a trend downward. I will be delighted to be proven wrong but I am not buying all of the hype, I rarely do. I also think the receiving core is among the worst in the NFL. I expect a sort leash on Wentz with lots of dink and dunk short passes to try and get him going. I have not seen many QBs go through his downward spiral and then magically come back. He has the right coach in place (although I am not a big fan) to try and turn him around. I do think the team was too ready to win right now to put the team in a rookie's hands. 

So you don’t look at the down ward Trend of the team around wentz?  The eagles had one of the oldest roster in the league in 2017 the team started aging and losing players . Then add in the injuries to his wrs And o line .  Wentz carried the eagles in 2019 to the playoffs with practice squad wrs and line men . While putting up close to 30 tds and 7 picks that is not going down hill . With a healthy team he is going over 35 touchdowns. In 2009 manning wins mvp colts go 14 - 2 in 2010 colts wrs get crushed with injuries and Blair white is the colts slot wr and Jacob Tammy at tight end Manning’s numbers drop colts go 10 -6 .  Brady look horrible in 2019 with bad weapons but when it’s wentz it’s a down ward spiral . How many eagles full games did you watch to see wentz get worse ? I bet you watch one or two games and are repeating first take talking points .

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I've had this bottled up for a while but what better place and time to release it than mid-June. I've been listening to series of podcasts, TV segments, radio hits, etc. about Wentz and the Colts and

I don’t think he forgot how to play, he just fell into some bad habits.   Now he has the team, the coach, and the fan base solidly behind him.    I truly believe he’s going to be everythi

Which Leopard is Wentz?   The one who practically took his team to the playoffs before getting hurt?   Or is it the one who was good, but clearly not as good as the Super Bowl year?  

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50 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I'm not worried Eason will do fine

 

  Hindsight tells me that it was a great thing for Reich to have last year with Rivers. Those two working together for a season would have been great to sharpen his co-ordinating skills. Great for Eason, and all the offensive players to be led by Rivers. A season long great How To get it done lesson.
 Don't misunderestimate that doubters.
  Nice article. Knowledgable fans are nodding there heads and saying ohh yaa!
 I don't want no Andrew Luck. Playing .500 ball outside the division and winning so many games with runs doesn't get it.

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12 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

So you don’t look at the down ward Trend of the team around wentz?  The eagles had one of the oldest roster in the league in 2017 the team started aging and losing players . Then add in the injuries to his wrs And o line .  Wentz carried the eagles in 2019 to the playoffs with practice squad wrs and line men . While putting up close to 30 tds and 7 picks that is not going down hill . With a healthy team he is going over 35 touchdowns. In 2009 manning wins mvp colts go 14 - 2 in 2010 colts wrs get crushed with injuries and Blair white is the colts slot wr and Jacob Tammy at tight end Manning’s numbers drop colts go 10 -6 .  Brady look horrible in 2019 with bad weapons but when it’s wentz it’s a down ward spiral . How many eagles full games did you watch to see wentz get worse ? I bet you watch one or two games and are repeating first take talking points .

 

 If he had, and basic capacity to get it, he wouldn't share his drivel.
  You are not writing this for him, a waste of time, but perhaps to educate some novice newer fan. Good post!

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15 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Drew Brees? Ryan Tannerhill? Randall Cunningham? It's not uncommon.

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Even if those three were great examples, it still wouldn't qualify as "common."

 

But I don't really think they are very good examples of Wentz's current situation. Not sure why Cunningham was mentioned...he didn't even switch teams until he came back from retirement at age 34. But the other two are the ones I see referenced quite often. 


Brees - He was one year removed from the PB in 2004 and while his 2005 season was not as good as 2004, it was still a top 10 QB season at the time (different league back then). It was also far better than his rookie season.

 

Wentz, on the other hand, was worse in his 5th season than he was as a rookie...and was near the bottom 2-3 in the NFL.

 

Brees was ascending, while Wentz is regressing.

 

Tannehill - He was a much steadier (but not as good) player over the first part of career. He got hurt and missed all of 2017 and then came back in 2018 as as different player. Despite only playing 11 games in 2018 (missed 5 games due to a shoulder injury during the 2018 season), he had 5/11 games with a passer rating well >100.

 

His stat line in 7/11 games in 2018 was:

  • 118 passer rating, 71% completion percentage, 16/4 TD/INT, 9.7% TD rate, 8.93 Y/A, 9.9 AY/A

Now look at his stat line since taking for over for Mariota in TEN: 

  • 113 passer rating, 67% completion percentage, 55/12 TD/INT, 7.3% TD rate, 8.7 Y/A, 9.6 AY/A

It's basically the SAME player. And he didn't have Derrick Henry in MIA, but that's a different narrative for another day.

 

The difference in 2018 (other than that he played for a team with a terrible OL and a terrible HC) was that he had 4 truly atrocious games...so bad that they drove down his whole 2018 season.

 

Someone in TEN must be smart because they saw that...and must have figured out how to get Tannehill to NOT have those types of games anymore.

 

But my point is that Tannehill flashed big time in his year before coming to TEN. 

 

Wentz did not...he had ONE game with a passer rating >90 last season and was just consistently bad. 

 

And IMO, taking a QB who was playing really well for most of the prior season before but had a few inconsistent terrible games and helping him to not have those games is a much easier task...THAN taking a QB who played really bad for nearly the entire prior season and helping him to not have all of those bad games. 

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The only reason that the NATIONAL media keeps spouting off about Wentz being broken is because there is a demand for such news in a major market (Philly) and that major market is in the NFC East - which for the national media, is the only division that exists.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Even if those three were great examples, it still wouldn't qualify as "common."

 

But I don't really think they are very good examples of Wentz's current situation. Not sure why Cunningham was mentioned...he didn't even switch teams until he came back from retirement at age 34. But the other two are the ones I see referenced quite often. 


Brees - He was one year removed from the PB in 2004 and while his 2005 season was not as good as 2004, it was still a top 10 QB season at the time (different league back then). It was also far better than his rookie season.

 

Wentz, on the other hand, was worse in his 5th season than he was as a rookie...and was near the bottom 2-3 in the NFL.

 

Brees was ascending, while Wentz is regressing.

 

Tannehill - He was a much steadier (but not as good) player over the first part of career. He got hurt and missed all of 2017 and then came back in 2018 as as different player. Despite only playing 11 games in 2018 (missed 5 games due to a shoulder injury during the 2018 season), he had 5/11 games with a passer rating well >100.

 

His stat line in 7/11 games in 2018 was:

  • 118 passer rating, 71% completion percentage, 16/4 TD/INT, 9.7% TD rate, 8.93 Y/A, 9.9 AY/A

Now look at his stat line since taking for over for Mariota in TEN: 

  • 113 passer rating, 67% completion percentage, 55/12 TD/INT, 7.3% TD rate, 8.7 Y/A, 9.6 AY/A

It's basically the SAME player. And he didn't have Derrick Henry in MIA, but that's a different narrative for another day.

 

The difference in 2018 (other than that he played for a team with a terrible OL and a terrible HC) was that he had 4 truly atrocious games...so bad that they drove down his whole 2018 season.

 

Someone in TEN must be smart because they saw that...and must have figured out how to get Tannehill to NOT have those types of games anymore.

 

But my point is that Tannehill flashed big time in his year before coming to TEN. 

 

Wentz did not...he had ONE game with a passer rating >90 last season and was just consistently bad. 

 

And IMO, taking a QB who was playing really well for most of the prior season before but had a few inconsistent terrible games and helping him to not have those games is a much easier task...THAN taking a QB who played really bad for nearly the entire prior season and helping him to not have all of those bad games. 

Really, really good post.   Very thoughtful and well researched.    Imagine being Miami, you had Tannehill and you traded him away for next to nothing.   What was it?  A 4 and a 6?

 

Thanks again for your post.  A pleasure to read!       :thmup:


 

:colts:

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18 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Ryan Tannelhill is on line one for you.  Honestly there have been several NFL players who have flourished when they get a change of of scenery.

Rich Gannon comes to mind.

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Even if those three were great examples, it still wouldn't qualify as "common."

 

But I don't really think they are very good examples of Wentz's current situation. Not sure why Cunningham was mentioned...he didn't even switch teams until he came back from retirement at age 34. But the other two are the ones I see referenced quite often. 


Brees - He was one year removed from the PB in 2004 and while his 2005 season was not as good as 2004, it was still a top 10 QB season at the time (different league back then). It was also far better than his rookie season.

 

Wentz, on the other hand, was worse in his 5th season than he was as a rookie...and was near the bottom 2-3 in the NFL.

 

Brees was ascending, while Wentz is regressing.

 

Tannehill - He was a much steadier (but not as good) player over the first part of career. He got hurt and missed all of 2017 and then came back in 2018 as as different player. Despite only playing 11 games in 2018 (missed 5 games due to a shoulder injury during the 2018 season), he had 5/11 games with a passer rating well >100.

 

His stat line in 7/11 games in 2018 was:

  • 118 passer rating, 71% completion percentage, 16/4 TD/INT, 9.7% TD rate, 8.93 Y/A, 9.9 AY/A

Now look at his stat line since taking for over for Mariota in TEN: 

  • 113 passer rating, 67% completion percentage, 55/12 TD/INT, 7.3% TD rate, 8.7 Y/A, 9.6 AY/A

It's basically the SAME player. And he didn't have Derrick Henry in MIA, but that's a different narrative for another day.

 

The difference in 2018 (other than that he played for a team with a terrible OL and a terrible HC) was that he had 4 truly atrocious games...so bad that they drove down his whole 2018 season.

 

Someone in TEN must be smart because they saw that...and must have figured out how to get Tannehill to NOT have those types of games anymore.

 

But my point is that Tannehill flashed big time in his year before coming to TEN. 

 

Wentz did not...he had ONE game with a passer rating >90 last season and was just consistently bad. 

 

And IMO, taking a QB who was playing really well for most of the prior season before but had a few inconsistent terrible games and helping him to not have those games is a much easier task...THAN taking a QB who played really bad for nearly the entire prior season and helping him to not have all of those bad games. 

FWIW Colin Cowherd was trying to make a case for the Browns this year and posted a graphic of the five best OL’s in the last five years.  He had the Colts with the best OL last year and in 2017 it was the Eagles when they won the SB with Reich as a coach and Wentz leading the team until his injury.  I don’t know where their line was ranked last year but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad.  The team was bad.  Circumstances are going to be dramatically different this year for Wentz.  He should be pumped and excited to play for Reich again and this team.  It is a very strong team.  I have no doubt Reich will get Wentz back into his groove again.  I’m excited.  I think we are in store for a great year.  Can’t wait to get started.  

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1 hour ago, Colt.45 said:

Wow, what happened to the SI website? It's so hard to use.

I didn’t find it hard. I clicked on the link and there it was.

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15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Don't get me started on coaching / play calling... 

 

Yup, Rivers was the person keeping us in the game. And that's with 4 drops, mediocre running game, missed FGs, and bad coaching.

Reminded me of a Chargers game.

 

But seriously, the front half of our schedule is pretty brutal, we don't get an easy game until week 6 against Houston.  Also the Jags will be improved this year with Lawrence.  The good news is we play Houston twice.  But looking at the schedule I don't see alot of easy wins there.

 

  1. Seattle
  2. Rams
  3. Titans
  4. Dolphins - I expect to be better because of an improving Tua
  5. Ravens
  6. Houston.
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12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Assuming Frank doesn't change the scheme much, I'd predict Wentz will be right around 8-12ish in most QB stat/rank categories. 

 

I wish folks would take a look how injuries impacted his OL over the season. And also his pass catching unit. Travis Fulgham was his leading pass catcher. I bet most folks would say "who is that". There was just a lot of bad going on last season in Philly. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2020.htm

https://www.lineups.com/nfl/snap-counts/philadelphia-eagles-snap-counts

 

I think we have gone back and forth on this already when PFF released their rankings, but again I have to say that is a crazy high prediction. I am not saying Wentz won't be a good QB either, but logistically, it is very dubious that he gets into that 8-12 range.

 

In 2018 (a long time ago), he finished #13 (EPA), #14 (DVOA), #12 (QBR) and #7 (Passer Rating), #8 (Yards/Game), #13 (TD rate) and #3 (Completion Rate). The completion rate was an outlier for his career so far, but you can make a case he was in that range overall...but that was the last time you could make that argument.

 

And since 2018, these QBs are now legitimately competing for those spots:

 

Dak Prescott

Josh Allen

Joe Burrow

Justin Herbert

Kyler Murray

Lamar Jackson

Ryan Tannehill

Baker Mayfield

Derek Carr

Matthew Stafford (in LA) 

 

These QBs are still stalwarts:

 

Russell Wilson

Patrick Mahomes

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Brady.

 

These older QBs are very capable of putting up those types of stats:

 

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Fitzpatrick (who was very good last year in MIA and is now in a great situation)

 

These QBs who are wildcards:

 

Deshaun Watson (if he plays)

Jameis Winston (who has just as much chance as Wentz does when it comes to reviving his career in a new offense)

 

That's 18 QBs right there...more than half of the league. I know you don't think as highly of the QB situation in the NFL, but it's loaded right now compared to what it was just 2-3 years ago.

 

And Wentz has to be better than at least 1/3 of that list to just to get into the top 12. And since there are more than 18 NFL QBs, that also assumes no other QBs emerge, including the rookies. 

 

If Wentz replicated his 2018 season in last year's NFL, he would have been #20 in EPA and #20 in QBR (right behind Rivers in Reich's offense). Even his MVP 2017 season would have only put him in that 5-7 range compared to last season.

 

For him to be in the top 8-12 in most stats/rankings in the 2021 NFL, he has to put up stats that are only a tier below 2017 (or a tier above his 2018...however you want to look at it). Basically, you are predicting him to be Andrew Luck then. I know Colts fans like to say he doesn't have to be Andrew Luck, but to achieve those stats, he sort of does.

 

 

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On 6/13/2021 at 2:30 PM, Thebrashandthebold said:

Leopards don't change their spots.

 

Is an elephant big? Yea baby, we're winning the Superbowl.

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56 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Really, really good post.   Very thoughtful and well researched.    Imagine being Miami, you had Tannehill and you traded him away for next to nothing.   What was it?  A 4 and a 6?

 

Thanks again for your post.  A pleasure to read!       :thmup:


 

:colts:

 

Thanks. Chris Grier has done a pretty good job rebuilding MIA, but he had to gut the team to do it...and Tannehill was part of that.

 

However, if I had to guess, Brian Flores is a huge part of that. A brand new HC wanting to rebuild and go in a different direction at QB (if possible) is pretty common. And that offseason, while they were "evaluating the QB position," Tannehill and his agent were working back channels to get a trade to anywhere that had a good opportunity for him.

 

TEN and JRob were intrigued because Mariota couldn't stay healthy and they needed to be able to have a strong QB2 who could win games if he went down. They obviously saw something in him and I bet they also knew there might be a good chance they would turn it over to him at some point since the alternative would have meant re-signing Mariota because he was in his 5th season.

 

As for the deal, it does look pretty bad in hindsight. But MIA was approaching it as they were trading a QB2 and JRob and Flores had spent more than a decade together in the NE org (2004-2015), including 4 years in the scouting department when they were both coming up. So I am sure that helped JRob get a deal done like that. (Always felt like the Isaiah Taylor trade was TEN's way of giving back to MIA, but it didn't work out that way.)

 

However, JRob is clearly no fool...or he has some smart people at his side. That's why I think he and Ballard will be in a dogfight for years to come. 

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

FWIW Colin Cowherd was trying to make a case for the Browns this year and posted a graphic of the five best OL’s in the last five years.  He had the Colts with the best OL last year and in 2017 it was the Eagles when they won the SB with Reich as a coach and Wentz leading the team until his injury.  I don’t know where their line was ranked last year but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad.  The team was bad.  Circumstances are going to be dramatically different this year for Wentz.  He should be pumped and excited to play for Reich again and this team.  It is a very strong team.  I have no doubt Reich will get Wentz back into his groove again.  I’m excited.  I think we are in store for a great year.  Can’t wait to get started.  

 

I have my doubts about how good the Colts can be with Carson because I think people underestimate how good Rivers was last year (on average).

 

But I have no doubt that they will still be a good team. It will be a fun season either way. 

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25 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I have my doubts about how good the Colts can be with Carson because I think people underestimate how good Rivers was last year (on average).

 

But I have no doubt that they will still be a good team. It will be a fun season either way. 

I know it amazes me how many people in here don't realize how good Rivers was. I think some in here just didn't like him because of the past games we had with them in the Manning days. Rivers wasn't great but a solid good. If Wentz plays like Rivers did last season we could very well win the division. There was really nothing you could bash Rivers over other than his arm strength throwing the deep ball. Statistically he threw for almost 4200 Yards while completing 68% of his passes. He only threw 11 INT's to his 24 TD's as well. The team went 11-5 on top of it.

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14 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I have my doubts about how good the Colts can be with Carson because I think people underestimate how good Rivers was last year (on average).

 

But I have no doubt that they will still be a good team. It will be a fun season either way. 

I think people are expecting Carson to be good this year for the same reason Rivers was good last year.  An outstanding OL with a strong run game and a coach who knows how to design his offense to his QB’s strengths.  He knows both QB’s and their strengths.  The QB’s know his offense as well.  Familiarity breeds success.  I think this will turn out to be an even better reunion than Rivers and Reich were last year.  Can’t wait.  

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I think there are things rivers will have done better then Wentz but there are also things Wentz does better then Rivers. It will all even out but Wentz clearly has the higher ceiling if he reached his potential.

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That story by Albert Breer says some of the WR are going to be going to Wentz offseason home in Houston in July to work and hangout. I love the early chemistry everyone is building. It’s going  to help when they get into battle on game days with each other.

 

Looks like Wentz did the same thing last season with his WR but they want to continue to call him a bad teammate.

 

https://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/08/philadelphia-eagles-carson-wentz-workouts-houston-jalen-reagor/amp/

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On 6/13/2021 at 2:30 PM, Thebrashandthebold said:

Leopards don't change their spots.

Thanks for the tip, Tony Robbins.

 

  Granted i’m an optimist, but i expect good play from Wentz overall.  I expect mistakes (like Luck) along with some big-play potential (much like Luck).  I think Wentz will have a renewed, refreshed attitude, along with a cmfort level he lacked the last couple years.  I think Wentz and Reich share the responsibility.  Frank really needs to make him comfortable and stress to him what we want.  Which i think is to “manage” the weapons we have and make a few key plays a game when needed.  If Carson can get his head on straight, i see no reason he cant at least give us Rivers-like numbers with a few more capabilities (better long-arm, escapability, scramble).  Which i think is all we need of him.  
  Make smart decisions, protect the ball, move the ball, rely on your weapons and defense, make 2 or 3 key plays a game.

  This is doable. 

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On 6/13/2021 at 10:47 AM, Patrick Miller said:

Do you think the general consensus of fans and commentators is that Carson Wentz is a lost cause? That's the feeling I get. I hope he proves them wrong but It Just seems most people think Carson isn't going to make a huge impact. What do you think?

No, not at all. I'm reminded of a conversation with a colleague:

Colleague - "Anybody can work under ideal conditions."

Me - "But no one can work under these."

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8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Even if those three were great examples, it still wouldn't qualify as "common."

 

But I don't really think they are very good examples of Wentz's current situation. Not sure why Cunningham was mentioned...he didn't even switch teams until he came back from retirement at age 34. But the other two are the ones I see referenced quite often. 


Brees - He was one year removed from the PB in 2004 and while his 2005 season was not as good as 2004, it was still a top 10 QB season at the time (different league back then). It was also far better than his rookie season.

 

Wentz, on the other hand, was worse in his 5th season than he was as a rookie...and was near the bottom 2-3 in the NFL.

 

Brees was ascending, while Wentz is regressing.

 

Tannehill - He was a much steadier (but not as good) player over the first part of career. He got hurt and missed all of 2017 and then came back in 2018 as as different player. Despite only playing 11 games in 2018 (missed 5 games due to a shoulder injury during the 2018 season), he had 5/11 games with a passer rating well >100.

 

His stat line in 7/11 games in 2018 was:

  • 118 passer rating, 71% completion percentage, 16/4 TD/INT, 9.7% TD rate, 8.93 Y/A, 9.9 AY/A

Now look at his stat line since taking for over for Mariota in TEN: 

  • 113 passer rating, 67% completion percentage, 55/12 TD/INT, 7.3% TD rate, 8.7 Y/A, 9.6 AY/A

It's basically the SAME player. And he didn't have Derrick Henry in MIA, but that's a different narrative for another day.

 

The difference in 2018 (other than that he played for a team with a terrible OL and a terrible HC) was that he had 4 truly atrocious games...so bad that they drove down his whole 2018 season.

 

Someone in TEN must be smart because they saw that...and must have figured out how to get Tannehill to NOT have those types of games anymore.

 

But my point is that Tannehill flashed big time in his year before coming to TEN. 

 

Wentz did not...he had ONE game with a passer rating >90 last season and was just consistently bad. 

 

And IMO, taking a QB who was playing really well for most of the prior season before but had a few inconsistent terrible games and helping him to not have those games is a much easier task...THAN taking a QB who played really bad for nearly the entire prior season and helping him to not have all of those bad games. 

 

Brees was never the player in San Diego that he became in New Orleans. The chargers drafted another QB so obviously they were looking to move on. One good season was basically his career as a Charger which is my point.

 

As for Tannerhill, he was never looked at as the guy in Miami. The dolphins literally got rid of him for basically nothing. He was damaged goods who couldn't lead the dolphins who had skill players like Landry, Parker, and Ajay. 

 

All I'm saying is sometimes new scenery is all a player needs. One team giving up on you doesn't mean you can't play.

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4 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

Thanks for the tip, Tony Robbins.

 

  Granted i’m an optimist, but i expect good play from Wentz overall.  I expect mistakes (like Luck) along with some big-play potential (much like Luck).  I think Wentz will have a renewed, refreshed attitude, along with a cmfort level he lacked the last couple years.  I think Wentz and Reich share the responsibility.  Frank really needs to make him comfortable and stress to him what we want.  Which i think is to “manage” the weapons we have and make a few key plays a game when needed.  If Carson can get his head on straight, i see no reason he cant at least give us Rivers-like numbers with a few more capabilities (better long-arm, escapability, scramble).  Which i think is all we need of him.  
  Make smart decisions, protect the ball, move the ball, rely on your weapons and defense, make 2 or 3 key plays a game.

  This is doable. 

I see no reason to believe Wentz will approach Rivers numbers. If he does the deal is a win. 

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13 hours ago, Stephen said:

Pittman had a jet one to, but we also had three ints reversed particularly the one by Rogers which would have taken a TD off the board

We were great at turnovers last year, just lacking in coverage. It would have been nice to get one of those INTs, but it would have been as good or better if we simply didn't give up 300+ yards passing. We were carved up plain and simple.

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8 hours ago, PRnum1 said:

Reminded me of a Chargers game.

 

But seriously, the front half of our schedule is pretty brutal, we don't get an easy game until week 6 against Houston.  Also the Jags will be improved this year with Lawrence.  The good news is we play Houston twice.  But looking at the schedule I don't see alot of easy wins there.

 

  1. Seattle
  2. Rams
  3. Titans
  4. Dolphins - I expect to be better because of an improving Tua
  5. Ravens
  6. Houston.

I actually like the early schedule for the most part, and no, I'm not into S&M lol.

 

I just think the timing of it is good, and I like having the easy stretch at the end of the year. Stinks that we'll likely be without Fisher to start the season, but the easy stretch at the end could be very beneficial in getting guys rested and healthy. I'm ifot saying we just sit guys at the end of the year or anything, but if we've got key injuries, we should be able to get by, and use the time to get healthy for the playoffs.

 

  1. Seattle - Home game. We have our core back, and Seattle has been a bit down. As long as our LT holds up, we get the win IMO. We're early Vegas favs.
  2. Rams - Another home game. The downside is their stud potentially killing our LT, but I'd rather get their new QB earlier than later.
  3. Titans - can't really complain about a division team. Tough away game, but it's going to happen during the season twice anyway.
  4. Dolphins - Unless Reich pulls another boneheaded 2019 game plan in Miami, we should win this easily. Yes, improved, but still we have a much better can more complete team.
  5. Ravens - Tough one, but Reich needs to get over the Raven's hump at some point. A lot of other teams seem to have figured them out, so Reich needs too. I also think our improved QB mobility will be huge vs the blitz happy D.
  6. Houston - If we don't win this one, we don't have the team I think we do.

Overall, 3-3 to start would be great, and I think we can do that. I think we might be able to go 4-2. Then the rest of the schedule is much more manageable. 

 

One thing I really hope for..... is that Reich doesn't think he can keep training wheels on Wentz early...... The Rams, Seahawks, and Ravens are all top 10 vs the run. We're going to need to be successful throwing the ball. The necessity to pass is something I like because it may force Reich to open things up a bit, or at minimum, let Wentz be Wentz, and give him some confidence. How he responds if things are on his back could tell us a lot early about his development. 

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8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

I think we have gone back and forth on this already when PFF released their rankings, but again I have to say that is a crazy high prediction. I am not saying Wentz won't be a good QB either, but logistically, it is very dubious that he gets into that 8-12 range.

 

In 2018 (a long time ago), he finished #13 (EPA), #14 (DVOA), #12 (QBR) and #7 (Passer Rating), #8 (Yards/Game), #13 (TD rate) and #3 (Completion Rate). The completion rate was an outlier for his career so far, but you can make a case he was in that range overall...but that was the last time you could make that argument.

 

And since 2018, these QBs are now legitimately competing for those spots:

 

Dak Prescott

Josh Allen

Joe Burrow

Justin Herbert

Kyler Murray

Lamar Jackson

Ryan Tannehill

Baker Mayfield

Derek Carr

Matthew Stafford (in LA) 

 

These QBs are still stalwarts:

 

Russell Wilson

Patrick Mahomes

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Brady.

 

These older QBs are very capable of putting up those types of stats:

 

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Fitzpatrick (who was very good last year in MIA and is now in a great situation)

 

These QBs who are wildcards:

 

Deshaun Watson (if he plays)

Jameis Winston (who has just as much chance as Wentz does when it comes to reviving his career in a new offense)

 

That's 18 QBs right there...more than half of the league. I know you don't think as highly of the QB situation in the NFL, but it's loaded right now compared to what it was just 2-3 years ago.

 

And Wentz has to be better than at least 1/3 of that list to just to get into the top 12. And since there are more than 18 NFL QBs, that also assumes no other QBs emerge, including the rookies. 

 

If Wentz replicated his 2018 season in last year's NFL, he would have been #20 in EPA and #20 in QBR (right behind Rivers in Reich's offense). Even his MVP 2017 season would have only put him in that 5-7 range compared to last season.

 

For him to be in the top 8-12 in most stats/rankings in the 2021 NFL, he has to put up stats that are only a tier below 2017 (or a tier above his 2018...however you want to look at it). Basically, you are predicting him to be Andrew Luck then. I know Colts fans like to say he doesn't have to be Andrew Luck, but to achieve those stats, he sort of does.

 

 

You can make a case for a lot of QBs. I'm not even going to compare Wentz's stats from 2020, because the impacts to the OL and his pass catchers were so egregious, it's just not intellectually honest to use that year. Please see the two links I posted earlier (snap counts to illustrate OL and WR injury, and receiving stats).... So I'll make a quick case using 2019.

 

Wentz 2019

  • YPG/total yards - 9th
  • QBR - 11th
  • Passer Rating - 13th
  • 1st Downs - 6th
  • Comp % - 17th
  • TDs - 5th
  • ANY/A - 16th (and that's with a TE leading all receiving yards)
  • Game winning drives - Tied for 2nd......

 

Then factor in other 2019 stats

  • Sacks - 12th most sacked QB 
  • Pressures - 4th most..... 
  • Drops - 5th most

 

So in short... 

  • In 2019, he was already in the 8-12 range (or better) in YPG, QBR, 1st Downs, and TDs.
  • I prefer QBR to passer rating, but he was only just outside (13th) in PR.
  • His completion % will obviously improve from 17 given Reich's dink/dunk, and simply the fact he won't be 12th most sacked, or 4th most pressured.
  • I highly doubt we have the 5th most drops.
  • His ANY/A was average, but that was a huge product of having a 2 TEs and a RB as your top 3 pass catchers. Yes, zero WRs in his top 3 in yards received. This will improve big time even if we continue to throw to the RB a lot.

 

So unless you ignore all the stuff in Philly last year, or believe he's completely broken, there's absolutely no reason to think he can't get back to 2019 level this year in our conservative offense and OL.

 

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All this Carson talk, will be be great will he be horrendous.. what nobody has mentioned is Ballard.

 

A guy with a better football mind than likely anybody on this site gave up a good amount of draft capital to get him. If Ballard wants this guy and Reich wants this guy.. works for me.

 

You don’t build a Super Bowl team and bring in a question mark at QB. They know what they have. He’s good enough to get the Colts where they want to be. At least Chris Ballard thinks so. 

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17 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

I have my doubts about how good the Colts can be with Carson because I think people underestimate how good Rivers was last year (on average).

 

But I have no doubt that they will still be a good team. It will be a fun season either way. 

PR is startlingly under appreciated here.  He did a great job with the way things went down offensively.  Lost Mack and Campbell early.  Taylor sucked for most of 8-9 games.

Very limited weapons IMO.  
 

PR made receiving stars out of Rbs throughout his career.  He is right there with Brady in throwing to backs.  People think it’s easy because throws are short, but it’s absolutely not.  Accuracy is vital.  Ekelar averaged 10.8 yds per reception with PR then 7.5 with IMO the best rookie QB other than Marino in history.

 

He read quick, had as quick a release as anyone, and is all time great accurate.

 

Wentz might be able to open things up with some mobility and better arm strength but reading, release, and accuracy are always the Holy Trinity of NFL QB skills.

 

IMO, our ceiling is last years results and the floor is 7-9 wins.  
 


 

To me, the biggest determiner of our future beyond next year is the development of our Dline and secondary, and our TEs and WRs.  I don’t think we have championship level weapons in the defensive backfield or receiving.  You are not running your way to championship level in the NFL in 2022.
 

I’m not really worried about Wentz.  Assuming health I think he’s a top 3rd minimum QB.  I just doubt he’ll be as good as Rivers was last year in CWs first year with INDY.

 

 

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Wentz is doing what he needs to in order to improve himself, and get acquainted with the team around him.

Extra stuff, like bringing his skill players to his summer house next month for throwing sessions, and get togethers. His QB trainer coming this week to help identify/work on mechanic issues that have slipped, and other things.

 

I believe he realizes he was part of that 2020 Eagles team as well, and as bad as it was, he did not play his best either, and is working on making sure 2021 starts off well with his new team.

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4 hours ago, TheNextGM said:

All this Carson talk, will be be great will he be horrendous.. what nobody has mentioned is Ballard.

 

A guy with a better football mind than likely anybody on this site gave up a good amount of draft capital to get him. If Ballard wants this guy and Reich wants this guy.. works for me.

 

You don’t build a Super Bowl team and bring in a question mark at QB. They know what they have. He’s good enough to get the Colts where they want to be. At least Chris Ballard thinks so. 

He’s he’s a better football mind, but he’s had quite a few misses on picks, especially in the D.  A couple of those guys might develop but right now, who knows.

 

I wanted Wentz too, and I think he’ll be fine, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it doesn’t work out.  QBs are a lot like MLB hitters IMO.  Extremely high draft picks bust around half the time.  Like MLB hitters sometimes guys flash then crash, sometimes they crash then flash,

 

CB has done the easy part IMo building with high picks on a LG and spending so much for Buck.  Spending a high 2nd on an RB.  Hitting with a high 2nd on a WILL.

that ensures we will be at least 500 or so, but whether or not this team will reach that top tier is up in the air with this current plan.

He hasn’t been great at finding the most difficult positions to fill through the draft.  Or at least those players haven’t proven that yet.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

He’s he’s a better football mind, but he’s had quite a few misses on picks, especially in the D.  A couple of those guys might develop but right now, who knows.

 

I wanted Wentz too, and I think he’ll be fine, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it doesn’t work out.  QBs are a lot like MLB hitters IMO.  Extremely high draft picks bust around half the time.  Like MLB hitters sometimes guys flash then crash, sometimes they crash then flash,

 

CB has done the easy part IMo building with high picks on a LG and spending so much for Buck.  Spending a high 2nd on an RB.  Hitting with a high 2nd on a WILL.

that ensures we will be at least 500 or so, but whether or not this team will reach that top tier is up in the air with this current plan.

He hasn’t been great at finding the most difficult positions to fill through the draft.  Or at least those players haven’t proven that yet.

 

 

I have to admit I lol when I read your “easy part” examples of Ballards attempt at team building.  Those were certainly no brainer can’t miss moves right?  I guess you think so.  I guess it’s “this current plan “ that has you worried.  I have to admit you do a good job of straddling the fence.  Lol. 

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21 hours ago, richard pallo said:

  I’m excited.  I think we are in store for a great year.  Can’t wait to get started.  

 

Only 61 days until August 15, our first preseason game. :coltslogo:   :banana::applause:

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1 hour ago, Nickster said:

PR is startlingly under appreciated here.  He did a great job with the way things went down offensively.  Lost Mack and Campbell early.  Taylor sucked for most of 8-9 games.

Very limited weapons IMO.  
 

PR made receiving stars out of Rbs throughout his career.  He is right there with Brady in throwing to backs.  People think it’s easy because throws are short, but it’s absolutely not.  Accuracy is vital.  Ekelar averaged 10.8 yds per reception with PR then 7.5 with IMO the best rookie QB other than Marino in history.

 

He read quick, had as quick a release as anyone, and is all time great accurate.

 

Wentz might be able to open things up with some mobility and better arm strength but reading, release, and accuracy are always the Holy Trinity of NFL QB skills.

 

IMO, our ceiling is last years results and the floor is 7-9 wins.  
 


 

To me, the biggest determiner of our future beyond next year is the development of our Dline and secondary, and our TEs and WRs.  I don’t think we have championship level weapons in the defensive backfield or receiving.  You are not running your way to championship level in the NFL in 2022.
 

I’m not really worried about Wentz.  Assuming health I think he’s a top 3rd minimum QB.  I just doubt he’ll be as good as Rivers was last year in CWs first year with INDY.

 

 

 

Exactly...and those short-yardage throws to RBs are encompassed in his Extra Points Added (EPA), which was freakin' 8th in the NFL for QBs.

 

People see/saw Rivers as an immobile QB who doesn't throw downfield and just assumed he was a decent, but very limited QB last year. But while he didn't have as many big plays downfield or any plays scrambling, his average play (EPA) more than made up for it. 

 

Obviously, a stat like Extra Points Added is going to have a strong relationship with offensive scoring (per drive, per game, etc.). And scoring per drive is how we measure an offense. 

 

EPA has the strongest relationship with wins (aka team success). This is followed by QBR and ANY/A. This is why I typically refer to these stats (and DVOA because it seeks to adjust for SOS).

 

But I also do refer to stats like INT %, completion % and TD % so as to not cherry-pick, but they have far less impact on the overall game.

 

So the reason I am most skeptical about Wentz making the offense better (beyond the regression of most of his stats over the past years) is EPA. Yes, he will open up the offense, however, what will the average play look like? 

 

I have posted Wentz's numbers over the past 4 years before, so I won't list them all again. However, let's look at EPA compared to Rivers:

 

EPA from 2017-2020:

Rivers: .216, .238, .145, .231 (with Reich)

Wentz: .257, .133, .093, -.054

 

A couple of things I notice. First, the "Reich as QB Whisperer" is very likely overstated. Rivers did bounce back in his year here, but he basically bounced to the player he was two years before he got to Indy. And that down year prior is more of a recent outlier than anything. 

 

Also, look at Luck's EPA for 2014, 2016 and 2018 (excluding when he was hurt in 2015 and 2017):

 

Luck: .170, .165, .185 (with Reich)

 

Don't get wrong, Luck got a little bump back, but he wasn't a dramatically better or more impactful QB than he was with Pep or Chud.

 

Like Rivers, it's not like Reich was getting MORE out of Luck, he was just a really good QB. 

 

Looking at Wentz, the second thing I notice is that Wentz has only once had a higher EPA than Rivers did last year...all the way back in 2017. From 2018-on, it got progressively worse. It has to take a massive leap from where it was the last two years to close the gap with Rivers.

 

Now we all know that Wentz brings more to the offense (mobility and deep passing) than Rivers, so perhaps those big plays will offset some of that gap in EPA.

 

Ok...then let's use Luck as the comp for that additional impact. Same story...all the way back to 2017.

 

The scoring per drive for the Colts last year with Rivers (2.47) was nearly identical to 2018 with Luck (2.46). What I am getting at is that, in order for this offense to be better next year (and therefore to drive more team success), Wentz basically has to be at least as good as Rivers (without many big plays) or Luck (with big plays). And to be better, he has to regain his 2017 form.

 

I just have my doubts on that, based on what we know.

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13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

You can make a case for a lot of QBs. I'm not even going to compare Wentz's stats from 2020, because the impacts to the OL and his pass catchers were so egregious, it's just not intellectually honest to use that year. Please see the two links I posted earlier (snap counts to illustrate OL and WR injury, and receiving stats).... So I'll make a quick case using 2019.

 

Wentz 2019

  • YPG/total yards - 9th
  • QBR - 11th
  • Passer Rating - 13th
  • 1st Downs - 6th
  • Comp % - 17th
  • TDs - 5th
  • ANY/A - 16th (and that's with a TE leading all receiving yards)
  • Game winning drives - Tied for 2nd......

 

Then factor in other 2019 stats

  • Sacks - 12th most sacked QB 
  • Pressures - 4th most..... 
  • Drops - 5th most

 

So in short... 

  • In 2019, he was already in the 8-12 range (or better) in YPG, QBR, 1st Downs, and TDs.
  • I prefer QBR to passer rating, but he was only just outside (13th) in PR.
  • His completion % will obviously improve from 17 given Reich's dink/dunk, and simply the fact he won't be 12th most sacked, or 4th most pressured.
  • I highly doubt we have the 5th most drops.
  • His ANY/A was average, but that was a huge product of having a 2 TEs and a RB as your top 3 pass catchers. Yes, zero WRs in his top 3 in yards received. This will improve big time even if we continue to throw to the RB a lot.

 

So unless you ignore all the stuff in Philly last year, or believe he's completely broken, there's absolutely no reason to think he can't get back to 2019 level this year in our conservative offense and OL.

 

 

Right, you can make cases for many QBs...and stronger cases in most cases. That's why it's a crazy high expectation.

 

I get that 2020 had a ton of context, but it's also intellectually dishonest to act like 2020 didn't happen...especially when we are projecting stats. There is a huge lack of stability in the stats, which makes it even harder to project.

 

I also think pointing to 2019 is a weak argument. You basically have QBR, along with a few counting stats. There are so many variables in counting stats that don't really measure QB play.

 

Either way, it's certainly not 'most stats' in 2019.

 

His 2019 ANY/A might have been average because the offense ran through TEs and RBs. But it's also why his QBR was at high as it is. Goedert, Sanders, Scott...all got him a TON of YAC. And look at his box scores AFTER Jeffrey and Agholor went down. He greatly benefited from that offense running through TEs and RBs in 2019.

 

And I expect his QBR will be really good in Indy as well...because Reich runs an offense that is very favorable to that stat.

 

But QBR is just one stat. In that 2019 season, he was #20 in EPA and #20 in DVOA. For what it's worth, his PFF grade was #16. Along with being #16 in ANY/A...you really have a QB more in the 15-20 range, not 8-12. Here is his PFF summary:

 

Quote

It was an odd season for Wentz, who was playing better than the stats showed during the first few weeks of the season before ranking near the bottom of the league in PFF grade over the second half of the season. He did have to deal with an incredible number of injuries to his supporting cast, and the end of the season saw multiple gutsy performances when throwing to a different group of receivers seemingly every week. On the positive side, Wentz was among the league’s best in big-time throws, and he was excellent when playing under pressure and outside of structure, though those are all facets that are difficult to duplicate moving forward. On the other hand, Wentz was mediocre in stable situations and below average at hitting open throws, but surrounding him with a full season of good playmakers should get him back on track.

 

 

Quote

there's absolutely no reason to think he can't get back to 2019 level this year in our conservative offense and OL.

 

I think he can get back to his 2019 level, but even if he does, it might not matter how conservative or "stable" the Colts offense is if he's still mediocre in those situations, especially if he can't replicate the big throws.

 

But like I said before...2019 was two seasons ago. Not only has the QB landscape changed dramatically (meaning there are more good QBs now), but QB stats have improved. That 2019 QBR would have been 20th (behind Rivers) last season, that 2019 EPA would have been #22 and that ANY/A would have been #23.

 

 

Barring injuries from multiple high-profile QBs, a 2019 level season from Wentz is not going to get him close to the 8-12 range in the 2022 NFL. We will just have to agree to disagree on this particular prediction.

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7 minutes ago, stitches said:

I've had this bottled up for a while but what better place and time to release it than mid-June. I've been listening to series of podcasts, TV segments, radio hits, etc. about Wentz and the Colts and a ton of them bring up the same exact sentiment in different forms that can be shortly summarized by "The Colts don't need Wentz to be Luck/2017 Wentz/MVP, they just need him to be an average QB because of the strong roster they've put around him".

 

I can't handle this anymore. This is complete and utter nonsense. If we want to be a legit contender year to year we need Wentz to be great, we don't need him to be mediocre. You don't pay 1st and 3d round pick + 100M in contract value for a player you expect to be Kirk Cousins(sorry @NFLfan). We want him AND NEED him to be more. This is especially true when the young all-pros and pro-bowl adjacent players that are on cheap rookie deals now graduate to huge paydays and/or leave because we can't pay them. We NEED the QB we are paying big money and big assets for to be great . Imagine me saying "we don't need Buckner to be great, we just need him to be at about Grover Stewart level, because the rest of the roster is so good". wth? This is horrible reasoning. You don't determine expectations of players based on the rest of your roster. You determine them by their talent and what you are paying for them and what reasonably would justify the price you are paying. 

 

SO yeah. I'm not on board with that sentiment. I want and expect Wentz to be great. I want and expect him to be the engine, not the trailer of this offense. He needs to be really really good. Or we will continue to fight tooth and nail for playoff spots and be bounced out in the wildcard rounds. Prolonged success/dynasties are almost always tied to a great QB and we need him to be that for us. Mediocre QBs give you mediocre consistency in team performance. 

I get the "he doesn't need to play hero ball like he did in Philly" thought process, but I can agree that to get to a Super Bowl, we need Wentz playing at a high level.

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12 minutes ago, Shive said:

I get the "he doesn't need to play hero ball like he did in Philly" thought process, but I can agree that to get to a Super Bowl, we need Wentz playing at a high level.

He doesn't need to play hero ball, but we need him to make hero plays when the situation requires it(when things break down around him). Just like every other high level QB in the league does - Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Rodgers, Watson.... We don't need him to make hero plays when the situation doesn't require it. Play within the structure and the progressions of the offense... but when either the protection breaks down or the receivers can't get open, we need him to be able to make plays for this team. 

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29 minutes ago, stitches said:

I've had this bottled up for a while but what better place and time to release it than mid-June. I've been listening to series of podcasts, TV segments, radio hits, etc. about Wentz and the Colts and a ton of them bring up the same exact sentiment in different forms that can be shortly summarized by "The Colts don't need Wentz to be Luck/2017 Wentz/MVP, they just need him to be an average QB because of the strong roster they've put around him".

 

I can't handle this anymore. This is complete and utter nonsense. If we want to be a legit contender year to year we need Wentz to be great, we don't need him to be mediocre. You don't pay 1st and 3d round pick + 100M in contract value for a player you expect to be Kirk Cousins(sorry @NFLfan). We want him AND NEED him to be more. This is especially true when the young all-pros and pro-bowl adjacent players that are on cheap rookie deals now graduate to huge paydays and/or leave because we can't pay them. We NEED the QB we are paying big money and big assets for to be great . Imagine me saying "we don't need Buckner to be great, we just need him to be at about Grover Stewart level, because the rest of the roster is so good". wth? This is horrible reasoning. You don't determine expectations of players based on the rest of your roster. You determine them by their talent and what you are paying for them and what reasonably would justify the price you are paying. 

 

SO yeah. I'm not on board with that sentiment. I want and expect Wentz to be great. I want and expect him to be the engine, not the trailer of this offense. He needs to be really really good. Or we will continue to fight tooth and nail for playoff spots and be bounced out in the wildcard rounds. Prolonged success/dynasties are almost always tied to a great QB and we need him to be that for us. Mediocre QBs give you mediocre consistency in team performance. 

 

  Me thinks you exaggerate. I don't believe you can find the word Average Anywhere. 
Great... Nope! Accurate and error free, don't take sacks. Yes he will have to do those things very well consistently in the Playoffs. It sure looks Great when you win the last game.

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    • I think the QB position is a little unique in terms of depth expectation and planning.  And it depends on your expectations of the team.  See below in my response to CR91 for more.   Not sure I understand. How was letting Walker go an "answer".      Couple points here...  Hoyer's loss vs Miami was 99% on Reich. After Hoyer played pretty well vs Pitt (coming in cold) in which he had 3 TDs / 1 INT and completed 65% of passes, Reich chose to 1) not practice Hoyer with the 1s leading up to the Miami game, and 2) chose to throw it all over the school yard (around 40 attempts) vs a team that was horrible vs the run. Just super bad game plan and prep. I agree that a pricey vet QB, or spending much on a backup QB in general is pretty much a waste. That is, unless you are a true SB contender going into the year (and can afford it). I've always felt if your starting QB goes down for the year, might as well accept things and embrace a higher draft pick come next draft. It's extremely rare to go deep with a backup. Even Foles wasn't seen as a high end backup. He was just off a cheap one year deal, and was contemplating retirement. He came back to Philly for a moderate deal, which most thought was even too much. That was purely luck. Just my opinion, but I like riding out Eason and trying to develop him along the way. And trade him (if he's not in contention for starting job) later if you can get picks, or keep him if he's decent and cheap. I, like you, like what the Pats do most years.
    • I don’t think a decision can be made until the preseason when we all see if Eason can play.  There are guys out there like Barkley, who can get you through a game or two in a pinch.  From what I read the Bears will probably keep Foles simply because his contract makes it easy for them   But my point was that it’s interesting that most of of aren’t really concerned about the backup QB even though it’s the position that we have least experience.  
    • Not saying we're going to be horrible vs the run, just saying we have a lot of new pieces. I'm honestly not sure Paye will even be in on early run downs at this point. Could be Lewis and AQM, or Lewis and Rochell. We all know Buckner is a monster, but beyond that, just not sure. Grover is good, but not great. I'd love to see him continue to develop. He's only in on early downs most sets though.   But yes, if we fail in that area, our D could be scary bad. I'm just hoping Blackmon learns to cover deep, RYS is healthy and returns to 2H 2019 form, Rhodes has a few more years left, and Kenny stays healthy. I expect Willis will be his solid self. I expect a shaky start to the season though.
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