Defense: Biggest Winner / Loser for 2021 (don't click if you don't like PFF or predictions)

[EastStreet]

Just like the thread for O...

 

[EastStreet]

D was harder than O lol

 

Q1 - I picked RYS as I think he gets back to 2nd half 2019 form, and I think the new DB coach will help. I could have went with Turay though too. He'll end up being a pass rush specialist and could rate pretty good.

 

Q2 - Picked Rodgers here as I think his #s were a bit of low snap apparition. Great traits, but that size will get you picked on at outside CB. Could have went with Franklin here as I think his grades will drop a bit if he gets extended use. Not saying either will be bad, I just think both grades may have been inflated a bit last season.

 

Q3 - Picked Davis here. I think he'll be in the rotation early, and if he's at SS, he'll grade very well.

[AKB]

It's hard to pick against most of these players.. You know Ballard is doing well when the bigger concern is health and not skill. 

 

I picked Ya Sin to have biggest jump (mainly from added DL talent and what results)

 

Picked Zaire to drop. I love the player, I just think with his expanded role (presumably) that his numbers will drop due to inexperience with higher snap counts. 

[CurBeatElite]

I picked Rochell to jump the most.... was torn btwn he and RYS.  I think Rochell is going to be very similar to Autry for us and will benefit tremendously from having Buckner and others on the line with him.  I think RYS will jump pretty high, too.  Could also see Leonard moving up  from his 72.6.  The others I was considering were Banogu (he had such a low grade, it'd be hard to imagine him not improving - though, it's also not too hard to imagine him not making the roster), and Oke (low grade last year, so hard not to improve.. and I think he'll be used a bit differently this year, with Flus utilizing him more toward his strenghts).

 

I picked Buckner to have the biggest drop.  Not because he's a bad player,  but because it's just very hard to have a 90 (well 89.7) PFF grade and I don't really see many of the other players on the team getting worse.  Hard to disagree with the logic of those who picked Franklin and Rodgers, and the other guy I could see dropping some is Rhodes (due to a relatively high grade and age potentially being a factor). 

 

Rookie, I went Paye.  I was thinking about Speed, as I think he'll have a pretty good year.  I doubt Dayo plays much (if at all) this season, and if he does I think he'll be used pretty sparingly.  Can't disagree w/ @EastStreet about Davis, but I just think (from what I've been reading) that Paye is going to be pretty special. 

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

It's hard to pick against most of these players.. You know Ballard is doing well when the bigger concern is health and not skill. 

 

I picked Ya Sin to have biggest jump (mainly from added DL talent and what results)

 

Picked Zaire to drop. I love the player, I just think with his expanded role (presumably) that his numbers will drop due to inexperience with higher snap counts. 

It's also hard to pick against some of the pre-existing grades. I don't see Buckner dropping much. All the other DLs are mid graded except for Banogu and I just don't see him breaking out. And while Oke has an opportunity to improve his very low grade, he'll be getting more snaps in an area where he already struggles. While I think Franklin may drop, I think grades will be close between him and Oke.

 

I could see Lewis or Rochell making a jump. Especially Rochell since he played in a weird hybrid D, and now will be asked to do less. He's got to make the team first though. My hope though, is that Blackmon makes a nice jump. We need that big time, just not sure he'll ever be near as good deep as he is coming downhill. 

[AKB]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

It's also hard to pick against some of the pre-existing grades. I don't see Buckner dropping much. All the other DLs are mid graded except for Banogu and I just don't see him breaking out. And while Oke has an opportunity to improve his very low grade, he'll be getting more snaps in an area where he already struggles. While I think Franklin may drop, I think grades will be close between him and Oke.

 

I could see Lewis or Rochell making a jump. Especially Rochell since he played in a weird hybrid D, and now will be asked to do less. He's got to make the team first though. My hope though, is that Blackmon makes a nice jump. We need that big time, just not sure he'll ever be near as good deep as he is coming downhill. 

I thought Zaire was gonna take a step back when Walker and Leonard were emerging. Then we drafted Oke and he was relegated to special teams. 

 

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Speed get some snaps too. 

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, CurBeatElite said:

I picked Rochell to jump the most.... was torn btwn he and RYS.  I think Rochell is going to be very similar to Autry for us and will benefit tremendously from having Buckner and others on the line with him.  I think RYS will jump pretty high, too.  Could also see Leonard moving up  from his 72.6.  The others I was considering were Banogu (he had such a low grade, it'd be hard to imagine him not improving - though, it's also not too hard to imagine him not making the roster), and Oke (low grade last year, so hard not to improve.. and I think he'll be used a bit differently this year, with Flus utilizing him more toward his strenghts).

 

I picked Buckner to have the biggest drop.  Not because he's a bad player,  but because it's just very hard to have a 90 (well 89.7) PFF grade and I don't really see many of the other players on the team getting worse.  Hard to disagree with the logic of those who picked Franklin and Rodgers, and the other guy I could see dropping some is Rhodes (due to a relatively high grade and age potentially being a factor). 

 

Rookie, I went Paye.  I was thinking about Speed, as I think he'll have a pretty good year.  I doubt Dayo plays much (if at all) this season, and if he does I think he'll be used pretty sparingly.  Can't disagree w/ @EastStreet about Davis, but I just think (from what I've been reading) that Paye is going to be pretty special. 

Agree with most if not all of this.

 

On Davis though... I think he could get snaps at either S position. I also think he'll challenge for more minutes as the year goes along. Not as good downhill as Blackmon but more reliable on the backend. May not be as good in the box as Willis, but probably more well rounded.

[AKB]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Agree with most if not all of this.

 

On Davis though... I think he could get snaps at either S position. I also think he'll challenge for more minutes as the year goes along. Not as good downhill as Blackmon but more reliable on the backend. May not be as good in the box as Willis, but probably more well rounded.

i think Shawn Davis will be in during the 46 and big nickel. 

 

 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, AustinnKaine said:

I thought Zaire was gonna take a step back when Walker and Leonard were emerging. Then we drafted Oke and he was relegated to special teams. 

 

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Speed get some snaps too. 

I'd love to see Speed emerge. Very raw, so low expectations. I think Zaire is more limited to the run game. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see another timeshare arrangement. 

[AKB]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd love to see Speed emerge. Very raw, so low expectations. I think Zaire is more limited to the run game. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see another timeshare arrangement. 

 

Yeah I wouldnt be surprised to see Shawn Davis also compete for some SAM snaps. I don't see us getting into many 3 safety sets this year, althought I could be wrong. Our secondary can be sneaky good this year. 

[EastStreet]

23 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

 

Yeah I wouldnt be surprised to see Shawn Davis also compete for some SAM snaps. I don't see us getting into many 3 safety sets this year, althought I could be wrong. Our secondary can be sneaky good this year. 

SD is probably too small to get SAM reps, but I think he'll be a DIME guy at least. 

I'm not really down on our DB personnel, but I am down on the scheme in general.

[stitches]

1. Biggest jump - like with the offensive side, I'm looking at young players with potential, I'm looking at players who had a down year last year and I'm looking at players who have actually shown they can do it before. One name is staring right at me and covers all of those criteria - Kemoko Turay. He was one of the highest ranked DEs before he got injured. Rock Ya-Sin is another option, simply because he starts off from such a low point... chances are he will be better. Same with Bobby Okereke... Isaac Rochell ... Ben Banogu... So for me it ends up between Turay and Okereke. Those are the ones I believe in the most. And I'm going Turay here.

 

2. Biggest drop - CBs are notoriously volatile year to year in PFFs grading so my mind immediately goes there - TJ Carrie, Xavier Rhodes, Isaiah Rodgers are all good candidates IMO. Marvell Tell... you didn't add him in the poll, but he's another one(67.6 grade from 2019). Since Isaiah Rodgers has the least experience it feels like his grade is the most volatile too so... I will pick him, but I don't feel great about it. 

 

3. Kwity Paye. My favorite pick. I think he is solid enough in run defense and has the physical ability to make some plays in pass-rush to warrant a solid grade. Shawn Davis is another good option. Seems like the safeties in our system automatically grade pretty well from the jump. Still... Kwity... 

[AKB]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

SD is probably too small to get SAM reps, but I think he'll be a DIME guy at least. 

I'm not really down on our DB personnel, but I am down on the scheme in general.

yeah that's my mistake, i meant 3DLB

 

However, if the opposing team has some athletic TE, or RB, i could see Shawn in on some heavy LB packages as one of the cover guys. (Even if that is on the sam side)

[EastStreet]

On 6/5/2021 at 4:32 AM, AustinnKaine said:

yeah that's my mistake, i meant 3DLB

 

However, if the opposing team has some athletic TE, or RB, i could see Shawn in on some heavy LB packages as one of the cover guys. (Even if that is on the sam side)

IIRC, we play about 20% of snaps with a SAM (4-3-4), and a little less than 5% of snaps in dime (4-2-6). The rest (around 70-75%) is nickel (4-2-5). 

 

SD, coming into the draft was seen as a guy who could play either S position, but I think most projected him as a two deep SS. If Blackmon continues to struggle on the backend like last year, I could see SD getting some coverage snaps as FS... Early though, I think he'll be rotational backup with Willis, and get the few dime reps we play. He's a guy I could see surprising though.

[MONEYdontLIE]

1. RYS for the biggest jump. He and Bobby were both about a 50 and a 10 point increase from either wouldn’t be outside of the realm of possibilities. Just think RYS has the better chance of being closer to a 70.

 

2. didn’t really feel “comfortable” in seeing a drop off in any of our core players which was a cool feeling. Chose Rhodes simply because it was him or Rodgers and I HOPE Rodgers is still ascending.

 

3. Paye. I think he’ll be solid very early as a run defender and develops as a pass rusher over time. Won’t lie I just like the kid lol.

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1. Lewis-  I feel he will be the starter at the strong side DE position, with Dayo rotating in when healthy.  The jump he took last year is a strong indication that the same could happen this year, hence, greater production.  

 

2. Carrie- I feel RYS will take the step forward this year, keeping Carrie on the bench and less production.  Though I like him as quality depth.

 

3. Paye- I was a Darrisaw man, but the more I read and learned about Kwity, the more I realize the Colts grabbed the right man.

[chad72]

On 6/3/2021 at 11:17 PM, EastStreet said:

D was harder than O lol

 

Q1 - I picked RYS as I think he gets back to 2nd half 2019 form, and I think the new DB coach will help. I could have went with Turay though too. He'll end up being a pass rush specialist and could rate pretty good.

 

Q2 - Picked Rodgers here as I think his #s were a bit of low snap apparition. Great traits, but that size will get you picked on at outside CB. Could have went with Franklin here as I think his grades will drop a bit if he gets extended use. Not saying either will be bad, I just think both grades may have been inflated a bit last season.

 

Q3 - Picked Davis here. I think he'll be in the rotation early, and if he's at SS, he'll grade very well.

 

Me too, I think RYS will make that jump. However, I feel that age will catch up with Xavier Rhodes and he will cede some snaps eventually to other starters towards the end of the season, I am hoping I am wrong. Both my picks were in the secondary. 

 

Paye, because of his run D, will still be the highest rated rookie, IMO for the strong side DE role he will be entrusted with.

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Me too, I think RYS will make that jump. However, I feel that age will catch up with Xavier Rhodes and he will cede some snaps eventually to other starters towards the end of the season, I am hoping I am wrong. Both my picks were in the secondary. 

 

Paye, because of his run D, will still be the highest rated rookie, IMO for the strong side DE role he will be entrusted with.

 

Rock was injured early, mid, and late last season, so I can kind of understand his struggles a bit. On Rhodes, I think he'll have another good year. Age will catch up with him at some point, but I think he's a good scheme fit, and should have another year or two left. If we played a lot of man, I'd worry more.

 

On Paye, I'd love to see your prediction. I just think he's going to play a ton of snaps, and will struggle a bit in year one. He may end up with pretty decent stats, but so-so grades. I really expect his grades to take off in year 2. I'd love it if he killed it year one though.