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Jonathan Taylor Stats/Ranks, Game-logs, Top 15 comps, + Poll & Discussion


Jonathan Taylor (read OP)  

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  1. 1. (Don't vote unless you've read the entire OP) - Where do you rank Jonathan Taylor as a RB this season (do not consider salary, age, health). Again, restrain your inner fanboy or fangirl.


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  • Poll closed on 06/30/2021 at 06:49 PM

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Serious chat and comparisons please. Try your best to check your fandom at the door lol. It's a long and detailed thread, so I understand it's not for everyone. For those that enjoy stats and honest debate, enjoy.

 

Given the PFF article and ranking, decided to dig into to RB stats across the league, and look closer at JT's body of work. 

 

I picked 5 key stats/ranks for comparison

  • AVG (average yards per attempt) - one could argue this is impacted by OL performance, so included OL rank
  • YAC (yards after contact) - Self explanatory, and is less impacted by OL
  • AB (attempts per broken tackle) - in short,, how many attempts does it take before a RB breaks a tackle. Also less impacted by OL
  • SR (Rushing Success Rate) - this is Sharp's measurement that takes into account down and distance, and uses % attainment.
  • PR (passer rating when targeted) - QB PR translated to the specific pass catcher when targeted. Obviously impacted by QB performance.

 

Included:

  1. Taylor Stats
    1. The year end stats/ranks in the 5 areas above
    2. JT's game log which includes the opponent's rush D rank
  2. PFF's top 15 RBs with the same stats/ranks in the 5 areas above, with a few comments on each
  3. Top 5 in each of the 5 areas
  4. Poll for you to rank JT. Don't vote unless you've read the below in it's entirety. Please try not to be fan boy/girl. If you have a range, just pick the median of your range. Do not consider salary, age, health, etc. (but feel free to comment on those areas in the body). In short, assume all RBs will be healthy all year and costs the same lol. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

JT Year End Stats/Ranks

OL Rank - 7th
AVG - 8th (5.0)
YAC - 22nd
AB - 29th
SR - 52%
PR - 107.2
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

JT Game Log

Week / Team (Run D Rank) / Yards / AVG / YAContact avg / Broken Ts / Rcv Yards
1 / JAX (30th) / 22 / 2.44 / 0.3 / 0 / 67
2 / MIN (27th) / 101 / 3.88 / 2.1 / 1 / 9
3 / NYJ (12th) / 59 / 4.54 / 1.5 / 1 / 3
4 / CHI (15th) / 68 / 4.0 / 0.9 / 0 / 11
5 / CLE (9th) / 57 / 4.75 / 1.7 / 0 / 17
6 / CIN (29th) / 60 / 5.0 / 1.5 / 0 / 55
8 / DET (28th) / 22 / 2.0 / 1.3 / 0 / 9
9 / BAL (8th) / 27 / 4.50 / 1.0 / 0 / 7
10 / TEN (19th) / 12 / 1.71 / 1.6 / 0 / 25
11 / GB (13th) / 90 / 4.09 / 1.6 / 1 / 24
12 Out
13 / HOU (32nd) / 91 / 7.0 / 3.0 / 3 / 44
14 / LVR (24th) / 150 / 7.5 / 3.9 / 1 / 15
15 / HOU (32nd) / 83 / 5.19 / 2.8 / 0 / 12
16 / PIT (11th) / 74 / 4.11 / 2.1 / 4 / 0
17 / JAX (30th) / 253 / 8.43 / 2.7 / 4 / 1
PO / BUF (17th) / 78 / 3.71 / 2.9 / 0 / 6

__________________________________________________________________________________________
 

Top 15 Stats/Ranks

 

1. Henry (TN)
OL Rank - 15th
AVG - 4th (5.4)
YAC - 5th
AB  - 12th
SR - 53%
PR - 68.5
Note: Average OL, most carries by a lot, huge, fast, and great numbers... He's a unicorn. Not as efficient in the passing game as some, but anyone who doesn't see him as the clear #1 RB needs help lol. He puts the bell in bell-cow RB.

 

2. Cook (MN)
OL Rank - 26th
AVG - 7th (5.0)
YAC - 12th
AB - 12th
SR - 55%
PR - 93.0
Note: Horrible OL, great stats, good receiving, and a higher success rate than Henry. Probably the best all around weapon in the league.  What would he look like with a better OL? Holy cow.

 

3. McCaffrey (CAR)
OL Rank - 18th
AVG - 8th (2019, INJ in 2020) 4.8
YAC - 37th
AB - 7th
SR - 49%
PR - 99.7
Note: Below average OL, good stats, all the Ds key on him, but he's still a D killer. While he's got average YAC, he's got one of the best broken tackle % out there. Also, hasn't had a lot of help in the QB department. If Darnold rebounds, Carolina could look very very differnt. And adding Tommy Tremble, a moster blocking TE will help in all facets.

 

4. Chubb (CLE)
OL Rank - 1st
AVG - 2nd (5.6)
YAC - 6th
AB - 6th
SR - 48%
PR - DNQ
Note: Great OL, but you can't argue his stats, especially his top 6 AVG, YAC, and AB. 

 

5. Kamara (NO)
OL Rank - 8th
AVG - 9th (5.0)
YAC - 18th
AB - 8th
SR - 53%
PR - 107.8
Note: Good OL, good stats, especially receiving. One of the better all around weapons, but just a step below Cook. Hard to guess what will happen this season with the questions around QB, but you know Kamara will have electric moments.

 

6. Jones (GB)
OL Rank - 2nd 
AVG - 3rd (5.5)
YAC - 3rd
AB - 24th
SR - no data
PR - 98.3
Note: Has the benefit of a great OL, but still a bruiser and one of the best after contact. Has a good QB (for how long who knows), but still a great weapon in the passing game in his own right.

 

7. Barkley (NYG)
OL Rank - 31st
AVG - 13th (2019, INJ in 2020) 4.6
YAC - 6th
AB - 23rd
SR - 43%
PR - 95.6
Note: One of the worst OLs in the league, but still a good AVG and YAC. We all know he can catch. That AVG, and other stats would take a nice jump with some improved uglies up front. They need to two rook OLs from last year to make a nice jump.

 

8. Carson (SEA)
OL Rank - 14th
AVG - 13th (4.8)
YAC - 19th
AB - 21st
SR - 65%
PR - 85.4
Note: Average OL, but the best success rate in the league last year before getting hurt. Prior to that, almost 1200 a year in 2018 and 2019.

 

9. Jacobs (LVR)
OL Rank - 24th
AVG - Not top 20 (3.9)
YAC - 27th
AB - 19th
SR - 51%
PR - 85.2
Note: Bad OL but very good success rate. 1000+ yards in both his first 2 seasons. Overall the O still needs help, but he's done a great job with the personnel and scheme he's in. Is Leatherwood really a first round OT?

 

10. Hunt (CLE)
OL Rank - 1st
AVG - Not top 20 (4.2)
YAC - 17th
AB - 11th
SR - 48%
PR - 121.7
Note: For a #2 RB, you can't ask for much more. His receiving contributions are about as good as you can get from a RB. Browns have the best 1-2 punch in the league.

 

11. Ekeler (LAC)
OL Rank - 32nd
AVG -  19th (4.6)
YAC - 21st
AB - 5th
SR - 42%
PR - 102.8
Note - One of the most underrated backs IMO. Worst OL in the league, but still very good well rounded numbers. If Slater kills it at LT and Herbert gets going in the passing game, Ekeler could be a beast and make a huge jump.

 

12. Elliott (DAL)
OL Rank - 27th
AVG - not top 20 (4.0)
YAC - 17th
AB - 20th
SR - 57%
PR - 99.5
Note: We all know he's a beast. Down year for him due to OL issues and loosing Dak. I'm predicting a big rebound.

 

13. Montgomery (CHI)
OL Rank - 20th
AVG - not top 20 (4.3)
YAC - 13th
AB - 3rd
SR - 47%
PR - 103.3
Note: Already nice stats even with a poor OL and bad passing game. Adding Jenkins and Fields should help. 2000 yards in only 22 starts is pretty impressive for a 3rd round guy. 

 

14. Mixon (CIN)
OL Rank - 30th
AVG - Not top 20, INJ, 4.1 in 2019
YAC - 18th
AB - 19th
SR - 45%
PR - 115.5
Note: Another uber talented guy suffering because of a horrible OL (and historically horrible team). Still very good stats in both rushing and receiving. Carman will help on the OL, but if Burrow comes back strong, look out in both phases.

 

15. Gibson (WFT)
OL Rank - 6th
AVG - 15th (4.7)
YAC - 28th
AB - 2nd
SR - 49%
PR - 90.1
Note: Great rook season. 1000 APY in only 10 starts. Now they added Cosmi on the OL, and have Fitzmagic. Kid has some very pretty broken tackles for a frosh. If Fitz can provide better balance, look out.

 

16. Taylor (IND)
OL Rank - 7th
AVG - 8th (5.0)
YAC - 22nd
AB - 29th
SR - 52%
PR - 107.2
Note: You simply can't ask more of a rook who all of sudden gets promoted to RB1 mid way through his first game lol. Yes we have a great OL. Yes, his three 100+ yard games came against trash run Ds, but his overall SR and PR are great especially for a rook. I'm predicting a slow start for him due to LT uncertainty, strong early SoS, and conservative O (early), but he'll roll hard and fast the last 2/3rds of the season and end up top 5 ish. He was just a tad under Hines in PR, so a jump in the passing game shouldn't surprise anyone either. Needs to get better in YAC and AB if he doesn't want people mentioning that we have a top 5 rushing OL.

 

Honorable mention - Dobbins (BAL) was first in AVG, second in YAC, and 8th in success rate. How that doesn't translate into top 10 for PFF, I'm not sure....., even if he was a rook and limited carries. Yes he has a good OL, and has a scheme that includes LJ, but still... Edwards-Helaire (KC) is someone to watch too. 5th best success rate and in a scheme with Mahomes... should take a nice jump.

 

Bonus mention - Hines was ranked 27th. So nice to have two top 32 RBs, and to have Mack back if he returns to good health.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

TOP 5s

 

AVG 
1. Dobbins (BAL) 6.0
2. Chubb (CLE) 5.6
3. Jones (GB) 5.5
4. Henry (TN) 5.4
5. Sanders (PHI) 5.3

 

YAC
1. Jones (TB) 3.0
2. Dobbins (BAL) 2.9
3. Jones (GB) 2.9
4. Singletary (BUF) 2.9
5. Henry (TN) 2.8

 

AB
1. Davis (CAR) 7.9
2. Gibson (WFT) 8.5
3. Montgomery (CHI) 8.5
4. Ekler (LAC) 8.9
5. Chubb (CLE) 9.0

 

PR (passer rating, RB only)
1. Hunt (CLE) 121.7
2. Gaskin (MIA) 115.2
3. Edmond (AZ) 111.6
4. Hines (IN) 110.6
5. Kamara (NO) 107.8
6. Taylor (IN) 107.2

 

SR - Rushing Success Rate
1. Carson (SEA) 65%
2. Murray (NO) 62%
3. Edwards (BAL) 62%
4. Williams (GB) 61%
5. Edwards Helaire (KC) 60%

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After looking at all the comps, I voted 11th. 

 

In short, if you factor the run Ds we played, our OL, etc. and seriously/honestly look at the other RBs, I just can't put him in the top 7. I could see as good as 8th though, but 11th is where I'd rate him given all the data right now. 

 

If he comes out strong early vs some of the better Ds, he'll make a nice jump in the ranks. Regardless, we have the OL, and he's got enough talent to keep the Colts in the top 10 in rushing yards. 

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Just working off last year's numbers, I slotted him in at #8, behind Barkley, but ahead of Carson. Taylor, if he remains healthy, will have a huge year IMO. One reason will be the depth behind him, so he doesn't have to be run into the ground. Another is obviously the solid O line blocking for him. But in the words of Tony Romo, this. guy. is. a. BEAST. Fast, big, tough, immensely talented, and most important of all, driven. He has the ability to rise to the level of a top 5 RB. The sky is the limit. 

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Here's my top 11 with comments

 

  1. Henry (TN) - very average OL, and every D knows what's coming... Yet he still is a beast despite getting easily the most carries in the NFL. Can you imagine him with a better OL, and a more balanced offense?
  2. Cook (MN) - horrible OL and still does everything at a very high level. You could make a case for him being #1. IMO, he's the best all around guy, but it's just too hard to rank him above Henry.
  3. Chubb (CLE) - great OL but kills it in almost every category. Still on his rook contract but has averaged 1100+ a year despite only starting 37 games in 3 years and has never had an AVG below 5.0. 
  4. Elliot (DAL) - down year last year for many reasons (OL, QB). Even with the down year, he's got a per game average that would equate to 1400 yards per season in his 5 years. Then add almost 400 yards receiving on average. Could his Henry-like bell cow usage early in his carrer being impacting the tread on his tires, or will he get back to form with Dak back?
  5. Jones (GB) - another RB from a great OL, but has great all around stats. 1000+ yards rushing and 400+ receiving on average the last 2 years. His AVG in his 4 years is 5.2 which is elite. He's a guy that has improved every year.
  6. Barkley (NYG) - great stats in most categories yet runs behind one of the worst OLs in the league. I could see an argument for him as high as #2. He's one of a few RBs (along with McCaffrey, Mixon, Ekeler) that could rank top 3 if they had a chance to run behind a top 10 OL). 
  7. McCaffrey (CAR) - average OL, eveyone knows he'll be featured in both phases, had an average or limited QB his entire career, yet still kills it. It will be intersting to see how he does this year with Darnold. One thing I'm for sure of, he'll love running to the side of Tommy Tremble.
  8. Kamara (NO) - pretty good OL, but is electric nonetheless. NO has had a lot of weapons and well balanced, so will be interesting to see how he is used in the post-Brees world. I could see him being as high as 6 but as low as 10ish. Great success rate given his style.
  9. Ekeler (LAC) - worst OL in the league yet still has great numbers in both phases. Adding Slater and getting Herbert back should allow him to take a step forward but LAC still needs to do more on the OL. 
  10. Carson (SEA) - Average OL, but the best success rate in the league. Prior to his injury last year, averaging 1200 a year. He's a guy I could see being +/- 5 in these rankings, but just can't argue with that 65% SR.
  11. Taylor - great OL but very average in YAC and AB. Great AVG even though it's inflated by some bad run Ds. His passing game contribution in his rook season was way beyond anything I expected. I also expect him to do a lot better in general running the ball after a year in the system. He was noticeably timid early in the season, but you could see his confidence grow as the year went on. Less thinking should propel his AB and YAC IMO. If our scheme gets less conservative, that will help as well. 

 

Prediction - Biggest riser this year - Dobbins

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I put him at 10, he's better overall with higher ceiling than Hunt, can give him 11 also because I think Ekeler is right now better overall then JT and Hunt, and that's with a useless OL. Between 10-11, righ range with a chance of going higher if the deep pass improves and OL sustain sucess.

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I am going to study it more before I vote but I did read what you posted regarding the other backs. Great break down. I am just not sure where I have him yet. I would say he is better than 16th after skimming through everything + by what I seen last season by the eye test. I can say I think he is better than Mixon or Gibson without hesitation, Mixon did play behind a bad O.Line though.

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14 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am going to study it more before I vote but I did read what you posted regarding the other backs. Great break down. I am just not sure where I have him yet. I would say he is better than 16th after skimming through everything + by what I seen last season by the eye test. I can say I think he is better than Mixon or Gibson without hesitation, Mixon did play behind a bad O.Line though.

Before I dug into the stats, OL ranks, and game logs, I thought I'd rank him around 5ish. Looking at all the data was pretty eye opening for me. Lots of variables. And simply removing the game vs Jax at the end of the year has a huge impact on his #s.

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Before I dug into the stats, OL ranks, and game logs, I thought I'd rank him around 5ish. Looking at all the data was pretty eye opening for me. Lots of variables. And simply removing the game vs Jax at the end of the year has a huge impact on his #s.

10ish seems about right just looking at everything. 5 is too high and 16 is too low IMO.

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4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

10ish seems about right just looking at everything. 5 is too high and 16 is too low IMO.

My thoughts too, but I can make a lot of different arguments in various ways. 

What concerned me most about JT's stats, were his poor YAC and Attempts per broken tackle. He's got to improve those areas. 

I also like to remove the best and worst games in an attempt to remove outliers. Doing so brings his best stats down a good deal.

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10th for me, I thought my heart would put him higher, but I think your OP @EastStreet did a good job of 'reminding' me of a few guys. 

 

If he carries on from last year I think he can push himself perhaps more towards top 5, but some will depend on how Frank uses him. A fit/healthy Mack could steal carries even if he's playing well, and it's hard to go away from the classic Hines between the tackles double bluff. 

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I am extremely high on Taylor, but I am also extremely high on the top 6-7 of that 2020 RB class. Not sure if it has the potential to be as elite as 2017...but the impact could be huge.

 

Taylor, Gibson, Dobbins, Akers, Swift and CEH are all extremely talented RBs. I honestly couldn't tell you who turns out the best of that group. Before the 2017, I thought it would be Kamara...and before the draft and last year I thought it would be Swift. But Taylor certainly has a shot at it. And if the Colts (hopefully) continue to feed him targets, he has a pretty good one. 

 

In hindsight, the rookie talent from last year makes it pretty obvious why Ballard felt like he needed to grab a RB early.

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54 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Here's my top 11 with comments

 

  1. Henry (TN) - very average OL, and every D knows what's coming... Yet he still is a beast despite getting easily the most carries in the NFL. Can you imagine him with a better OL, and a more balanced offense?
  2. Cook (MN) - horrible OL and still does everything at a very high level. You could make a case for him being #1. IMO, he's the best all around guy, but it's just too hard to rank him above Henry.
  3. Chubb (CLE) - great OL but kills it in almost every category. Still on his rook contract but has averaged 1100+ a year despite only starting 37 games in 3 years and has never had an AVG below 5.0. 
  4. Elliot (DAL) - down year last year for many reasons (OL, QB). Even with the down year, he's got a per game average that would equate to 1400 yards per season in his 5 years. Then add almost 400 yards receiving on average. Could his Henry-like bell cow usage early in his carrer being impacting the tread on his tires, or will he get back to form with Dak back?
  5. Jones (GB) - another RB from a great OL, but has great all around stats. 1000+ yards rushing and 400+ receiving on average the last 2 years. His AVG in his 4 years is 5.2 which is elite. He's a guy that has improved every year.
  6. Barkley (NYG) - great stats in most categories yet runs behind one of the worst OLs in the league. I could see an argument for him as high as #2. He's one of a few RBs (along with McCaffrey, Mixon, Ekeler) that could rank top 3 if they had a chance to run behind a top 10 OL). 
  7. McCaffrey (CAR) - average OL, eveyone knows he'll be featured in both phases, had an average or limited QB his entire career, yet still kills it. It will be intersting to see how he does this year with Darnold. One thing I'm for sure of, he'll love running to the side of Tommy Tremble.
  8. Kamara (NO) - pretty good OL, but is electric nonetheless. NO has had a lot of weapons and well balanced, so will be interesting to see how he is used in the post-Brees world. I could see him being as high as 6 but as low as 10ish. Great success rate given his style.
  9. Ekeler (LAC) - worst OL in the league yet still has great numbers in both phases. Adding Slater and getting Herbert back should allow him to take a step forward but LAC still needs to do more on the OL. 
  10. Carson (SEA) - Average OL, but the best success rate in the league. Prior to his injury last year, averaging 1200 a year. He's a guy I could see being +/- 5 in these rankings, but just can't argue with that 65% SR.
  11. Taylor - great OL but very average in YAC and AB. Great AVG even though it's inflated by some bad run Ds. His passing game contribution in his rook season was way beyond anything I expected. I also expect him to do a lot better in general running the ball after a year in the system. He was noticeably timid early in the season, but you could see his confidence grow as the year went on. Less thinking should propel his AB and YAC IMO. If our scheme gets less conservative, that will help as well. 

 

Prediction - Biggest riser this year - Dobbins

 

My list mirrors yours more or less (at least as far as the names go).

  • I don't consider Montgomery to be on Taylor's level.
  • I can understand why a person would predict Mixon over Taylor for next season, especially with how different CIN looks now.
  • I can definitely understand having Hunt over him, who is only not a RB1 in the NFL because of off-field issues. Hunt was a top 10 RB as a rookie (and hasn't really done anything to show he's not since then).

 

For me though, it gets really fuzzy around 11...and I don't have a lot of conviction at that point. I think there are probably 5-6 players in that area, so I see it more as 11a, 11b, 11c, etc. So to allow for the chance that one of those players ends up better than Taylor next year, I will put him at #12 for now.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

10th for me, I thought my heart would put him higher, but I think your OP @EastStreet did a good job of 'reminding' me of a few guys. 

 

If he carries on from last year I think he can push himself perhaps more towards top 5, but some will depend on how Frank uses him. A fit/healthy Mack could steal carries even if he's playing well, and it's hard to go away from the classic Hines between the tackles double bluff. 

Like I replied to CBE, my heart/gut originally had him around 5ish, but got a bit enlightened when I looked at all the RBs and context. 

 

I do think he'll take a step up this year, but those early games will be fun to follow as we play some good Ds early. If he goes beast mode vs the Rams, I'll have to change my mind again lol.  

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  I agree about 11, but think that year two will propel him higher.  I liked what I saw in him, as someone who was a running back in school and someone who has studied the great running backs, his best days are ahead, imvho.

 

  Off topic, look at Jim Brown's 1963 season, off the charts!  Only 12 games back then and every defense knew he was getting the ball.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJi00.htm

 

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3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

My list mirrors yours more or less (at least as far as the names go).

  • I don't consider Montgomery to be on Taylor's level.
  • I can understand why a person would predict Mixon over Taylor for next season, especially with how different CIN looks now.
  • I can definitely understand having Hunt over him, who is only not a RB1 in the NFL because of off-field issues. Hunt was a top 10 RB as a rookie (and hasn't really done anything to show he's not since then).

 

For me though, it gets really fuzzy around 11...and I don't have a lot of conviction at that point. I think there are probably 5-6 players in that area, so I see it more as 11a, 11b, 11c, etc. So to allow for the chance that one of those players ends up better than Taylor next year, I will put him at #12 for now.

Montgomery is pretty near JT IMO. His OL isn't near as good as Indy's, and his QBs have been bad. Still he's been highly productive and took a big step last year in the receiving game. He also played against some very good run Ds. He didn't play as well vs Jax as JT, but played better vs Houston.

 

I just feel sorry for Mixon lol. He deserves more supporting talent.

 

Hunt was hard for me. I could see him being as high as 6ish, or as low as 13ish. He's a huge bargain for CLE as a RB2 though. They were smart giving him that 2 year extension for 6 or 7  per year. That assumes he keeps his head on straight.

 

And yes, very fuzzy in several areas. I almost did tiers after the top 3

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2 hours ago, WentzinRome said:

  I agree about 11, but think that year two will propel him higher.  I liked what I saw in him, as someone who was a running back in school and someone who has studied the great running backs, his best days are ahead, imvho.

 

  Off topic, look at Jim Brown's 1963 season, off the charts!  Only 12 games back then and every defense knew he was getting the ball.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJi00.htm

 

FmB must mean something other than fumble, right? LOL.

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5 minutes ago, compuls1v3 said:

FmB must mean something other than fumble, right? LOL.

Lol!  That one threw me as well.  Not sure tbh.  Regardless, that was one hell of a year!

 

Edit:  Actually it means fumbles and recoveries by team??

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11 minutes ago, WentzinRome said:

Lol!  That one threw me as well.  Not sure tbh.  Regardless, that was one hell of a year!

 

Edit:  Actually it means fumbles and recoveries by team??

Yeah, I checked the glossary.  That one has me stumped as well.  Fumbles were common in those days apparently.

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7 minutes ago, compuls1v3 said:

Yeah, I checked the glossary.  That one has me stumped as well.  Fumbles were common in those days apparently.

Yeah but it is worded "by team"????  Why put that in an individual player's stats?

 

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2 minutes ago, WentzinRome said:

Yeah but it is worded "by team"????  Why put that in an individual player's stats?

 

Exactly.  Very confusing.  Amazing stats, nonetheless.

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I think the rating is fair.  He wasn’t very good for half the season running right into piles, missing obvious running a lanes, stuff I talked about a lot.  The teams other backs were better options most games during that time.

 

after he was benched for ineffectiveness, he came back strong.  He showed better vision.  The JAx game is fairly irrelevant.

 

stats show what id been arguing for a while. He’s got limitations.  He’ll explode.

 

I think he will regress to the mean dramatically in the passing game.

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Here's my top 11 with comments

 

  1. Henry (TN) - very average OL, and every D knows what's coming... Yet he still is a beast despite getting easily the most carries in the NFL. Can you imagine him with a better OL, and a more balanced offense?
  2. Cook (MN) - horrible OL and still does everything at a very high level. You could make a case for him being #1. IMO, he's the best all around guy, but it's just too hard to rank him above Henry.
  3. Chubb (CLE) - great OL but kills it in almost every category. Still on his rook contract but has averaged 1100+ a year despite only starting 37 games in 3 years and has never had an AVG below 5.0. 
  4. Elliot (DAL) - down year last year for many reasons (OL, QB). Even with the down year, he's got a per game average that would equate to 1400 yards per season in his 5 years. Then add almost 400 yards receiving on average. Could his Henry-like bell cow usage early in his carrer being impacting the tread on his tires, or will he get back to form with Dak back?
  5. Jones (GB) - another RB from a great OL, but has great all around stats. 1000+ yards rushing and 400+ receiving on average the last 2 years. His AVG in his 4 years is 5.2 which is elite. He's a guy that has improved every year.
  6. Barkley (NYG) - great stats in most categories yet runs behind one of the worst OLs in the league. I could see an argument for him as high as #2. He's one of a few RBs (along with McCaffrey, Mixon, Ekeler) that could rank top 3 if they had a chance to run behind a top 10 OL). 
  7. McCaffrey (CAR) - average OL, eveyone knows he'll be featured in both phases, had an average or limited QB his entire career, yet still kills it. It will be intersting to see how he does this year with Darnold. One thing I'm for sure of, he'll love running to the side of Tommy Tremble.
  8. Kamara (NO) - pretty good OL, but is electric nonetheless. NO has had a lot of weapons and well balanced, so will be interesting to see how he is used in the post-Brees world. I could see him being as high as 6 but as low as 10ish. Great success rate given his style.
  9. Ekeler (LAC) - worst OL in the league yet still has great numbers in both phases. Adding Slater and getting Herbert back should allow him to take a step forward but LAC still needs to do more on the OL. 
  10. Carson (SEA) - Average OL, but the best success rate in the league. Prior to his injury last year, averaging 1200 a year. He's a guy I could see being +/- 5 in these rankings, but just can't argue with that 65% SR.
  11. Taylor - great OL but very average in YAC and AB. Great AVG even though it's inflated by some bad run Ds. His passing game contribution in his rook season was way beyond anything I expected. I also expect him to do a lot better in general running the ball after a year in the system. He was noticeably timid early in the season, but you could see his confidence grow as the year went on. Less thinking should propel his AB and YAC IMO. If our scheme gets less conservative, that will help as well. 

 

Prediction - Biggest riser this year - Dobbins

Here is my Top 10, I am pretty much where you are at regarding who is in the top 10. Of course I factored in Stats and the other things you did but some of this is by pure eye test.

 

1. Henry

2. Cook

3. Elliot - I think with Dak back, he bounces back in a big way.

4. McCaffery - Top 5 material

5. Barkley - Top 5 material

6. Chubb - A strong argument could made for Top 5.

7. Kamara

8. Jones

9. Ekeler - We both have him 9th.

10. Taylor - I have JT here, so he does make my top 10.

 

You and I agree on 1 and 2, those are no brainers to me.

 

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42 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Here is my Top 10, I am pretty much where you are at regarding who is in the top 10. Of course I factored in Stats and the other things you did but some of this is by pure eye test.

 

1. Henry

2. Cook

3. Elliot - I think with Dak back, he bounces back in a big way.

4. McCaffery - Top 5 material

5. Barkley - Top 5 material

6. Chubb - A strong argument could made for Top 5.

7. Kamara

8. Jones

9. Ekeler - We both have him 9th.

10. Taylor - I have JT here, so he does make my top 10.

 

You and I agree on 1 and 2, those are no brainers to me.

 

Given the context, I can see a case for Taylor being 8th to 16th ish.

The only thing I somewhat disagree on with your stack is Chubb being only 6th, but even that's not way off from mine.

 

Surprised @BornHoosier hasn't dropped in to tell most of us we're crazy lol

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6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Given the context, I can see a case for Taylor being 8th to 16th ish.

The only thing I somewhat disagree on with your stack is Chubb being only 6th, but even that's not way off from mine.

 

Surprised @BornHoosier hasn't dropped in to tell most of us we're crazy lol

I laughed at your last line, he probably thinks we are this Homer Simpson Reaction GIF

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10 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I laughed at your last line, he probably thinks we are this Homer Simpson Reaction GIF

 

or he read the thread and.....

 

tenor.gif?itemid=11992135

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22 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Rank them for how they will produce THIS YEAR.
 I am comfortable picking Taylor 1st.

  I wouldn't trade him for any of them.

Guessing you didn't like the exercise or key stat areas I chose... lol. Like I said, not for everyone.

 

If you are talking total yards, one could argue he might not be top 10 this year.

Depending on the rotation of JT, Mack, and Hines, it's likely he gets less carries per game this year.

And had his game vs Jax been normal the end of 2020, he would not have been top 10 last year.

 

Total yards is really an overly simplistic stat, and lacks the context of scheme, OL, SoS, etc..... That is, if you are truly trying grade the RB.

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7 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

I'm really surprised to see how high y'all are ranking Elliot, I don't think he is even top 10 anymore more between 11 to 15.

Are you aware of his stats, what happened in Dallas last year, or what is projected this year?

 

I mean, aside from Dak not being there, more than half their OL missed half the season including their LT, RG, and C.

 

And he still had almost 1000 yards.

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1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Rank them for how they will produce THIS YEAR.
 I am comfortable picking Taylor 1st.

  I wouldn't trade him for any of them.

I'm with you.

 

JT averaged 134.5 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns over the final six games last season as a rookie (including the playoffs). Only 2 of those were home games. 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Are you aware of his stats, what happened in Dallas last year, or what is projected this year?

 

I mean, aside from Dak not being there, more than half their OL missed half the season including their LT, RG, and C.

 

And he still had almost 1000 yards.

Yeah, I had him on fantasy. fumbles were a problem and he seemed to give up on games to the point the backup was out performing him.

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Where are you pulling the data from? I’m glancing at the PFF advanced stats and see wildly different #s. Looks like you show JT with only 15 missed tackles forced on the year? PFF has him at 41 MTF in the regular season, 33 of which came in just the last 6 games (on 119 carries). Only 5 against JAX, broke at least 4 in each of the other 5 stretch games. Pretty big discrepancy. The general splits btwn his first 9 and last 6 games are not just huge, but also pretty consistent after he got going, not merely a JAX or LV skew. But I guess depends on which source. Via PFF, JT went w/o a single MTF in 6 of initial 9 games with a high of 4 vs NYJ (vs min of 4 in last 6). YCO differs big time too, they show his lowest yac/att down the stretch as 3.0 vs Pitt. The game log you posted shows JT with yac/att below 3.0 in 4/6 final regular season games. His AB also dropped from 14.1 to 3.6 after he entered beast mode.

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14 hours ago, Zoltan said:

Yeah, I had him on fantasy. fumbles were a problem and he seemed to give up on games to the point the backup was out performing him.

I look at it a bit differently.

  • With no QB, every team focused on stopping him
  • He averaged 4+ ypc in every game but one before Dak went out. After that, more sub 4.0s than anything.
  • OL
    • Starting OC (who was not very good in the first place) went out in week 4 with a MCL and was replaced with a 4th round rookie.... who is not all that great.
    • Starting LT played only 2 games the whole year.....
    • Their starting RT went on IR week one... lol. He was replaced by a bad G/T backup.
    • Their 6x Pro Bowl RG (Marting) who is the anchor on that side, had to start at RT when the backup RT went down. He then went down... Only really played 8 games...
    • Their LG was the only starting OL to play most of the season....

 

So you were aware of all that?

 

Backup? you mean Pollard? He never got more than 12 carries, and that was later in the season... If I were Jerry Jones, I wouldn't have risked Elliot as much as they did. 

 

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

So you were aware of all that?

 

Backup? you mean Pollard? He never got more than 12 carries, and that was later in the season... If I were Jerry Jones, I wouldn't have risked Elliot as much as they did. 

 

1. Yes

 

2. Yes, Cardinals game when he fumbled twice and Pollard took over. He also only had two 100+ yard games, was out rushed by Pollard against the steelers with half the carries and was out rushed by Dalton the last game of the season. Also frankly Barkley has been able to do alot with a bad OL and people have Elliot ranked above him.

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2 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

1. Yes

 

2. Yes, Cardinals game when he fumbled twice and Pollard took over. He also only had two 100+ yard games, was out rushed by Pollard against the steelers with half the carries and was out rushed by Dalton the last game of the season. Also frankly Barkley has been able to do alot with a bad OL and people have Elliot ranked above him.

 

You're reaching man given all the injuries along the OL, and with Dak being out.

 

He still almost ran for 1000. Taylor only ran for 1000+ because of the monster game vs Jax at the end.

 

Do you think JT would have sniffed 1000 if AC was out 14 games, Smith was out almost the entire year, and Kelly and Glow were both out half the year.

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