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Perhaps some insight on moving on from Houston and Autry?


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16 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth...    Pro Football Outsiders has a projection system for rookies in the NFL.

 

For this years rookie pass rush class, PFO had Phillips as the player with the most sacks in his first five years.   I think it was 32.5 sacks which averages out to 6.5 per year.   And he was the best!

 

I think Paye was second with 27.5 which is 5.5 sacks for each of his five years.   That’s it. 
 

I don’t know how good or accurate PFO’s system is?   I’m just saying rookies with 8 sacks is easier said than done.   It’s really hard.  

One thing to remember is that Michigan had Paye lining up inside the tackle most of the time. With the ability to move farther out (the D Buck part) and freelance on passing downs, I firmly believe his sack count will rise. Mathis and the other coaches will help him, and he appears unusually coachable.

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21 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

That's pretty alarming.

 

21 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Obviously Ballard made it an emphasis in the draft. You can't have two of your top pass rushers be outdone by your DT even if it is Buckner who is getting a lot more of the attention.

 

Sorry, but this is one of those lazy clickbait type tweets/articles that use one stat (in this case QB hits) and ignore most other facets. And while QBKDs are nice, it's best to look at pressures which includes Sacks, KDs, hurries, etc.. 

 

Once could just as easily argue the following (stats farther below)

  • Houston was top 10 in pass rush win rate for DEs. He's tied for 4th in the league at 25%.
  • Buckner didn't even make the top 10 in pass rush win rate for DT. 10th place was 13%, so we know Buckner's % is below that.... Is this "disturbing" to you? And no, I'm not saying Buckner sucks. I am however illustrating a situation where you can look at one stat (just like the tweet) instead of looking at context though... 
  • If you look at pressures per snap, Houston and Buckner are almost identical. Both got a pressure 4.1% of the time.
  • Now look at pay... We got 1.32 pressures for every million we paid Buckner. We got 2.78 from Houston, and 3.68 from Autry... We got double and almost triple bang for the buck from Houston and Autry if you just want to look at the $$.... 

 

 

Pressures (p/ Snaps / Salary
Buckner - 31 / 751 / 23.4M
Houston - 25 / 608 / 9M
Autry - 21 / 631 / 5.7M
Lewis - 16 / 415 / 1.2M

 

Pressure Rate (pressure per snap)
Buckner - 4.1%
Houston - 4.1%
Autry - 3.3%
Lewis - 3.9%

 

Bang for the Buck (pressures per million $)
Buckner - 1.32
Houston - 2.78
Autry - 3.68
Lewis - 13.33
 

Overall, I'm stoked we got Paye, and I'll take him over Houston or Autry any day. At the same time though, I think there are a bunch of lazy and uninformed hot takes out there regarding Houston and Autry. And Autry was a tweener anyway, so not even a full time DE. He was sliding inside to 3T some on pass rush downs.

20 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Houston had 8 sacks, Autry 7.5 sacks. Wasn't like they were scrubs. That is above average at worse.

Very respectable given the circumstance (our scheme and blitz %, they're pressure rate, their pay)... 

 

19 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I think Ballard sees the constant pressure isn't there and that lowers Houston's value in his mind. As far as mentoring goes, Paye has Buck and Mathis.

See below on the bolded... 

20 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Those sacks came in chumps. They get 2 sacks in one game and then disappear for the next 4

If you want to look at sack production...... One could say the following....

  • Buckner disappeared the most, only scoring sacks in 5 games. Houston scored a sacks in 8 games, Autry in 6. In terms of constant, or consistent, this is pretty telling especially when you also consider Buckner gets more snaps.
  • In terms of sacks vs chumps.... Buckner was the biggest garbage sack collector on the DL... Every one of his sacks came against bottom 10 OLs.... Not one vs a top 10 OL. Houston scored sacks vs two top 10 teams. Autry only one vs top 10, but 5.5 vs top 16 teams.

 

Buckner Sacks (9.5 total sacks): Game / Sacks / OL Rank
MiN - 1.5 / 26th
CIN - 1 / 30th
HOU - 2 / 23rd
HOU - 3 / 23rd
JAX - 2 / 22nd

 

Houston Sacks (8.5)
JAX - 1 / 22nd
MN - 0.5 / 26th
NYJ - 1 / 29th
CHI - 1 / 20th
GB - 1 / 2nd
HOU - 3 / 23rd
JAX - 0.5 / 22nd
BUF - 0.5 / 10th

 

Autry Sacks (9)
JAX - 2 / 22nd
DET - 2 / 13th
BAL - 1 / 16th
TEN - 1 / 15th
HOU - 1.5 / 23rd
BUF - 1.5 / 10th

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Bang for the Buck (pressures per million $)
Buckner - 1.32
Houston - 2.78
Autry - 3.68
Lewis - 13.33

Im really looking forward to seeing more of Lewis this year. I think he takes the Autry role ahead of Rochell/Banogu.
DE on 1st and 2nd down, 3T on 3rd with Turay coming onto the edge.
By the sounds of it, they'll do whatever they can to get Paye on as many plays as possible but I definitely see Rochell and Banogu rotating in there at times.
Paye, AQM, Banogu
Stewart Woods
Buckner, Lewis,
Turay, Rochell, Dayo
 

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@EastStreet wow. Very long comment. Perhaps I'm hard on Houston and Autry. Probably because I'm still bummed on the lack of pressure in the playoffs. 

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22 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Just watching his tape, Paye looks disruptive. His first time is Mathis like. I have high expectations. 

I hope he lives up to expectations. Just remember Taco Charlton had better stats than Paye. 

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6 minutes ago, RNGDShobby said:

Im really looking forward to seeing more of Lewis this year. I think he takes the Autry role ahead of Rochell/Banogu.
DE on 1st and 2nd down, 3T on 3rd with Turay coming onto the edge.
By the sounds of it, they'll do whatever they can to get Paye on as many plays as possible but I definitely see Rochell and Banogu rotating in there at times.
Paye, AQM, Banogu
Stewart Woods
Buckner, Lewis,
Turay, Rochell, Dayo
 

Lewis - I'm excited to see him take a step forward too. He's a tweener like Autry, but I think Autry was closer to DE, while Lewis might be closer to 3T. My hope is Paye develops quickly, Turay is the pass rush opposite end, and Lewis is that 3rd down 3T that can crash when Buckner slides over. However it plays out, Lewis is going to get a lot more spotlight early IMO.

 

Rochell - he's a wildcard to me. LAC has a funky hybrid D scheme and Rochell was getting scraps from Ingram and Bosa. I think coming to a more traditional 4-3 might be good for him. I don't see him being much of threat as a pass rusher from the outside, but I do think he could be a good run stopping DE and also slide inside to 3T. He's got size so there's a lot of options. He's still young too. At worst, I think he'll push AQM for snaps and be decent depth.

 

Obvious Passing downs - more or less 6 key guys, maybe 7 if Banogu emerges or Dayo comes back.

DE Paye / Lewis

3T Lewis / Rochell

NT Buckner / Rochell

DE Turay / Lewis

 

Running downs

DE Paye / Rochell

3T Buckner / Woods

NT Stewart / Woods OR Stallworth

DE Lewis / AQM

 

 

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26 minutes ago, CR91 said:

@EastStreet wow. Very long comment. Perhaps I'm hard on Houston and Autry. Probably because I'm still bummed on the lack of pressure in the playoffs. 

Sorry, just hate hot-take tweets lol, and didn't want to reply without being factual. I could have replied with a simple Houston had as many pressures (%) as Buckner and was a better bang for the buck, but that may have driven less targeted discussion.

 

If you're just looking at our playoff game, Houston had the best game on the DL. Autry's performance was as good or better than Buckner's.

 

Regardless, I'm just happy Ballard finally went big (early) on DE with Paye. Long overdue. I just hope he develops quicker than most DEs. 

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2 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

I hope he lives up to expectations. Just remember Taco Charlton had better stats than Paye. 

 

Can't just look at stats when it comes to Paye. You need to see his body of work and how he was used.

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8 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Can't just look at stats when it comes to Paye. You need to see his body of work and how he was used.

What's different from their bodies of work at the same stage?

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17 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Dollars to donuts they both have less this year, probably less pressures as well.

We gonna be pretty bad defensively the way way the team stands now.  Unless all of CBs 2nd and 3rd year guys make DRAMATIC improvements.

 

 

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22 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

People have been saying this about #98 for years..... He's mentored each and every one of these high draft pick DL..... Who have been the epitome of underwhelming and inconsistent this far.... Has there been a single case of Mathis coaching up or coaxing max potential from a edge rusher anywhere?

You can only mentor those in front of you.  #98 hasn't had anything close to Kwity Paye come through Indy since he's been mentoring them.  You cannot MAKE someone excel, you mentor them and it's up to them to become what they are not only capable but, desiring to be.  I stand by what I said.  Kwity Paye, with the tutelage of Mathis will be what you haven't seen so far from Mathis' guiding hand in others...because of their lack of excellence, not his.

  

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