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Perhaps some insight on moving on from Houston and Autry?


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10 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

That's pretty alarming.

There’s a reason we only went so far toward re-signing them both.    We’d have brought them back at our price, not theirs. 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

There’s a reason we only went so far toward re-signing them both.    We’d have brought them back at our price, not theirs. 

 

Obviously Ballard made it an emphasis in the draft. You can't have two of your top pass rushers be outdone by your DT even if it is Buckner who is getting a lot more of the attention.

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1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

Obviously Ballard made it an emphasis in the draft. You can't have two of your top pass rushers be outdone by your DT even if it is Buckner who is getting a lot more of the attention.

Autry was alright, but they were both fading. Houston a little moreso. 

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There’s an old saying in the player personnel business that goes back 60-70 years... 

 

 

Better to give up on a player a year too early than a year too late.   I wouldn’t call it a hard and fast rule, but I think more  front office people in all team sports subscribe to it than not. 

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Houston had 8 sacks, Autry 7.5 sacks. Wasn't like they were scrubs. That is above average at worse.

 

Those sacks came in chumps. They get 2 sacks in one game and then disappear for the next 4

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7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Houston had 8 sacks, Autry 7.5 sacks. Wasn't like they were scrubs. That is above average at worse.

 

A good chunk of those came because of the opposing presence of Buckner. 

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1 minute ago, JediXMan said:

 

A good chunk of those came because of the opposing presence of Buckner. 

Those are still above average numbers sack wise. If it so easy to get 8 sacks than Paye should have 10 easily playing with Buckner with that thinking logic. I am not sure Paye has more than 8, he may or may not?

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30 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

There’s an old saying in the player personnel business that goes back 60-70 years... 

 

 

Better to give up on a player a year too early than a year too late.   I wouldn’t call it a hard and fast rule, but I think more  front office people in all team sports subscribe to it than not. 

 

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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Did you mean to post something here?   It was left blank..   

Even with the presence of Buckner, I feel the DL still has a missing presence that I can't explain??  

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1 minute ago, BornHoosier said:

Even with the presence of Buckner, I feel the DL still has a missing presence that I can't explain??  

I mean no Grover Stew or D Autry spells 6 sacks for the DL as is until others step up!! Buckner and company = a questionable step up that can't be confirmed!!!  

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42 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Those are still above average numbers sack wise. If it so easy to get 8 sacks than Paye should have 10 easily playing with Buckner with that thinking logic. I am not sure Paye has more than 8, he may or may not?

Let's see what his numbers translate to at the professional level before we go all OUT???  8, 10 or 12 sacks is yet to be determined so lets wait?

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Those are still above average numbers sack wise. If it so easy to get 8 sacks than Paye should have 10 easily playing with Buckner with that thinking logic. I am not sure Paye has more than 8, he may or may not?

 

Just watching his tape, Paye looks disruptive. His first time is Mathis like. I have high expectations. 

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1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Those are still above average numbers sack wise. If it so easy to get 8 sacks than Paye should have 10 easily playing with Buckner with that thinking logic. I am not sure Paye has more than 8, he may or may not?

For what it’s worth...    Pro Football Outsiders has a projection system for rookies in the NFL.

 

For this years rookie pass rush class, PFO had Phillips as the player with the most sacks in his first five years.   I think it was 32.5 sacks which averages out to 6.5 per year.   And he was the best!

 

I think Paye was second with 27.5 which is 5.5 sacks for each of his five years.   That’s it. 
 

I don’t know how good or accurate PFO’s system is?   I’m just saying rookies with 8 sacks is easier said than done.   It’s really hard.  

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5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth...    Pro Football Outsiders has a projection system for rookies in the NFL.

 

For this years rookie pass rush class, PFO had Phillips as the player with the most sacks in his first five years.   I think it was 32.5 sacks which averages out to 6.5 per year.   And he was the best!

 

I think Paye was second with 27.5 which is 5.5 sacks for each of his five years.   That’s it. 
 

I don’t know how good or accurate PFO’s system is?   I’m just saying rookies with 8 sacks is easier said than done.   It’s really hard.  

 

Honestly, I just wanna see more disruption. If the sacks come, great. But, I'll take QB hits and pocket pressure just as well. Paye is raw, but can become a monster. He has the tools.

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8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth...    Pro Football Outsiders has a projection system for rookies in the NFL.

 

For this years rookie pass rush class, PFO had Phillips as the player with the most sacks in his first five years.   I think it was 32.5 sacks which averages out to 6.5 per year.   And he was the best!

 

I think Paye was second with 27.5 which is 5.5 sacks for each of his five years.   That’s it. 
 

I don’t know how good or accurate PFO’s system is?   I’m just saying rookies with 8 sacks is easier said than done.   It’s really hard.  

This is why I was for re-signing Houston for 1 more year. Rookies getting 8 or more sacks rarely happens + Houston could mentor Paye. I think in Paye's 2nd season he will be very good to great anyway but I am thinking about 2021.

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

This is why I was for re-signing Houston for 1 more year. Rookies getting 8 or more sacks rarely happens + Houston could mentor Paye. I think in Paye's 2nd season he will be very good to great anyway but I am thinking about 2021.

 

I think Ballard sees the constant pressure isn't there and that lowers Houston's value in his mind. As far as mentoring goes, Paye has Buck and Mathis.

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2 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Those sacks came in chumps. They get 2 sacks in one game and then disappear for the next 4


DeFo got his in clumps as well. 7 of his 9.5 sacks came in three games against HOU and JAC at the end of the season.

 

It was a theme for this team last year, which is probably a big reason why psd rush was a focal point of this offseason.

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10 minutes ago, shasta519 said:


DeFo got his in clumps as well. 7 of his 9.5 sacks came in three games against HOU and JAC at the end of the season.

 

It was a theme for this team last year, which is probably a big reason why psd rush was a focal point of this offseason.

 

But his QB hits were constant as was his disruption in the middle. You can't say the same about Houston and Autry.

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I've been pretty vocal in my worry about this defense... especially the pass-defense, in light of us losing both our starting EDGE rushers from last year, but the one thing that has given me a bit of optimism is precisely that - even though we lost both Autry and Houston, it's not like they were some pass-rushing machines that couldn't be stopped. The hope is that the new guys will be able to at least replicate that type of disruption. We were bottom 10 pass-rush unit last year so there is room for improvement especially when one of the pieces is Buckner. But there is still a chance we get even worse, especially year 1 of Paye(rookie with work to do on his technique and pass-rush plan) and Dayo(likely to miss most if not all of the season). I guess we will have to wait and see....

 

This team is sneaky intriguing to watch on so many levels

- Wentz' rebirth - how does it go?

- WR group - many young pieces with lots to prove but nobody proven, except for TY(and Pascal?).

- CB group - some promise from Tell, Rodgers... maybe Rock... will one or two of the rise to the top and will we find our next outside corner this year or will we have to go draft another one high?

- EDGE - NOONE proven in that position group... tons of players with tons to prove - Banogu, Lewis, Turay, Paye, Dayo(if he plays), Rochell... our most proven commodity there is a back up from the last several years in Al-Quadin Muhammad

- LT ??? How will Fisher look and when will he get back to play? Tevi a starter? 

 

Along with the intrigue, there comes a level of uncertainty and risk. This is the reason I'm not sure how good this team will be... there are sooooooo many question marks on this roster and we need most of them to find their solution this year if we want to be legitimate contenders. That's not to say it won't happen, but there is a serious risk on multiple levels of this team that Ballard has taken and chances are they won't all pan out. 

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6 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Honestly, I just wanna see more disruption. If the sacks come, great. But, I'll take QB hits and pocket pressure just as well. Paye is raw, but can become a monster. He has the tools.

Thats a great point

 

A pressure is a great drive killer. Of course you want sacks, but a forced incompletion is also nearly as good

 

I agree on Paye, and believe that he may not get 10 sacks this year, but believe that he will get a solid contribution with the number of pressures.

 

 

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I believe Kwity Paye has some things to learn to become an elite NFL Edge Rusher.  BUT, I also believe Kwity Paye is going to be an elite NFL Edge Rusher.  Is that sooner rather than later?  That's the million dollar question.  What gives me hope that it's the sooner side rather than the later is who is mentoring him:  Our very own Edge Rusher extraordinaire - #98 Robert Mathis!  With Mathis and Buckner giving Paye pointers, accompanied with his sheer desire to be great and and live up to what he promised his mother and himself, this kid is going to be a beast.  He's got that IT factor.  Just my opinion

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Remember Freeney didn't start right away he backed up Bratske. Mathis didn't start till his 3rd year. 1st 5 games or so don't be surprised if its Muhammed and Turay or Lewis that get the starts. That's why if we are 3-3 in the 1st 6 games I'll be happy.

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I think that stat says more about how good Buckner is than anything else.

 

With that said the Colts needed to get younger there.  It’s telling that Houston is still unsigned.  Autry was solid player who you would like to have but you can replace if needed.  Sometimes that happens in free agency.  

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

even though we lost both Autry and Houston, it's not like they were some pass-rushing machines that couldn't be stopped. The hope is that the new guys will be able to at least replicate that type of disruption. We were bottom 10 pass-rush unit last year so there is room for improvement especially when one of the pieces is Buckner.

 

This is where I am also. To paraphrase Michael Scott: Do you want the pass rush to get better, get worse, or stay the same? If we want the defense to take the next step, the pass rush must get better, and it wasn't likely to do that with 31 year old Denico Autry and 32 year old Justin Houston. I think both of those guys were overvalued by Colts fans.

 

Set aside the rookies, the real hope for 2021 is that Turay, Lewis, Rochelle, Muhammed and Banogu can complement Buckner well enough to replicate or out perform the disruption from the DL in 2020 (2 sacks/game, and a mediocre pressure rate). That's not a high bar to clear. 

 

In the future, the hope is that Paye, Dayo, and one or two of the guys we already have start to form a really good edge group.

 

But we weren't going to have the kind of pass rush we need by holding to Autry and Houston. I'd have taken either of them back on a modest contract, but I wouldn't have paid Autry $7m/year. Rochelle is basically an attempt to replicate what they did with Autry three years ago -- a rotational edge with length, mid 20s, with potential to be an 8-10 sack for a couple seasons. 

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10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Set aside the rookies, the real hope for 2021 is that Turay, Lewis, Rochelle, Muhammed and Banogu can complement Buckner well enough to replicate or out perform the disruption from the DL in 2020 (2 sacks/game, and a mediocre pressure rate). That's not a high bar to clear. 

This is the key right here ^^^^

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11 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

 If it so easy to get 8 sacks than Paye should have 10 easily playing with Buckner with that thinking logic. I am not sure Paye has more than 8, he may or may not?

8 would be a pretty strong number for a him. I not sure if Paye is an every down player as a rookie?  If he was clearly a ten sack type guy right away then he wouldnt have lasted until our pick 

 

I glad we picked him but to me it seems like there is still room for Houston too.  

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

This is where I am also. To paraphrase Michael Scott: Do you want the pass rush to get better, get worse, or stay the same? If we want the defense to take the next step, the pass rush must get better.

 

Well if we're quoting the office then we don't want the pass rush to get better. We want it to stay the same lol.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

This is where I am also. To paraphrase Michael Scott: Do you want the pass rush to get better, get worse, or stay the same? If we want the defense to take the next step, the pass rush must get better, and it wasn't likely to do that with 31 year old Denico Autry and 32 year old Justin Houston. I think both of those guys were overvalued by Colts fans.

 

Set aside the rookies, the real hope for 2021 is that Turay, Lewis, Rochelle, Muhammed and Banogu can complement Buckner well enough to replicate or out perform the disruption from the DL in 2020 (2 sacks/game, and a mediocre pressure rate). That's not a high bar to clear. 

 

In the future, the hope is that Paye, Dayo, and one or two of the guys we already have start to form a really good edge group.

 

But we weren't going to have the kind of pass rush we need by holding to Autry and Houston. I'd have taken either of them back on a modest contract, but I wouldn't have paid Autry $7m/year. Rochelle is basically an attempt to replicate what they did with Autry three years ago -- a rotational edge with length, mid 20s, with potential to be an 8-10 sack for a couple seasons. 

It's amazing how Ballard has gone the path of high ceiling, low floor options on multiple positions of the team - EDGE is one of them - we had a certain floor with Houston and Autry, but he chose to go with the more risky path and let them go to let the young guys prove they can or cannot play. Wentz is IMO another high ceiling low floor option. When knowing all the available healthy LTs, FIsher sticks out as another one that has low floor and higher ceiling than the Charles Leno's of the world.

 

I'm usually a fan of this type of decision-making. I think at the highest levels, you need to hit on ceiling guys in order to be competitive against the top teams. But it's striking how many of those Ballard made and all of them at very important positions. If he's right on most of those there is a chance this team can be really good... but if he strikes out on majority... we might be in trouble. 

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19 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

 

Well if we're quoting the office then we don't want the pass rush to get better. We want it to stay the same lol.

 

That's definitely how a lot of people seem to feel: "STAY THE SAME!!!"

 

The same is not good enough. 

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10 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's amazing how Ballard has gone the path of high ceiling, low floor options on multiple positions of the team - EDGE is one of them - we had a certain floor with Houston and Autry, but he chose to go with the more risky path and let them go to let the young guys prove they can or cannot play. Wentz is IMO another high ceiling low floor option. When knowing all the available healthy LTs, FIsher sticks out as another one that has low floor and higher ceiling than the Charles Leno's of the world. 

 

Ballard: 'They have to plaaayyy. These young guys have to play. That's the only way they'll get better.' 

 

Eventually you have to move on from average older guys, and if your drafting isn't good enough to replace those players, that's a different problem. But don't just hold on to the guys who made up your mediocre pass rush because you're afraid the young guys aren't ready. I'm totally okay with how they handled Autry and Houston.

 

I'm torn on Leno/Fisher, but that's because I think the team is okay with Te'vi being the starter for a couple months (or Davenport, or someone else). If Fisher can play the second half of the season at 80-90%, he's better than Leno. And with his new contract details, the Fisher signing makes more sense to me than it did when I thought it was just one year, $9.4m. He also has the potential to be a high level starter for another 2-3 years, where Leno would have been a stopgap, at best (IMO). I'm coming around on the Fisher path, but if the healthy LTs aren't any good, it might bite us. 

 

I don't think Wentz has that low of a floor, but that's because I think 2020 was an anomaly. With a better OL and better coaching, I don't see Wentz being nearly as erratic as he was last year. I think his floor is more of a Jared Goff/Ryan Tannehill type season, and that's if they kind of keep him reined in and/or rely heavily on the run and short passing game. He could be a shot fighter, but I don't think he is.

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13 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Houston had 8 sacks, Autry 7.5 sacks. Wasn't like they were scrubs. That is above average at worse.

Dollars to donuts they both have less this year, probably less pressures as well.

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5 hours ago, joecolts said:

I believe Kwity Paye has some things to learn to become an elite NFL Edge Rusher.  BUT, I also believe Kwity Paye is going to be an elite NFL Edge Rusher.  Is that sooner rather than later?  That's the million dollar question.  What gives me hope that it's the sooner side rather than the later is who is mentoring him:  Our very own Edge Rusher extraordinaire - #98 Robert Mathis!  With Mathis and Buckner giving Paye pointers, accompanied with his sheer desire to be great and and live up to what he promised his mother and himself, this kid is going to be a beast.  He's got that IT factor.  Just my opinion

People have been saying this about #98 for years..... He's mentored each and every one of these high draft pick DL..... Who have been the epitome of underwhelming and inconsistent this far.... Has there been a single case of Mathis coaching up or coaxing max potential from a edge rusher anywhere?

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My hopes over the last two seasons have been (in no order)....

 

DE/pass rush

WR

TE

CB depth

 

Even with AC retiring, I was never overly concerned about the oline. Ballard quickly signed two vets. That unit will be fine barring major injuries. Fisher is just icing on the cake. 

 

We have TE's, but not a dynamic receiving TE. Love Doyle, but he is a lunch pail guy, who gives you what he has each and every week. M.A.C. has rare skills, but I don't know if he'll become that guy. We'll see if Granson can make plays at the NFL level. He certainly has some "Clark" to his game. 

 

I have been clamoring for a replacement for Reggie since.....well.....Reggie retired. Pittman showed me enough last season that I have relaxed a bit on that need. If Parris says healthy......I'm good. We'll have our near future at WR. Pascal is a good guy depending on the matchups. As far as the rest, it looks like Ballard is assembling the tallest WR corp in the league. Geez, there is some size at camp. 

 

CB depth is an issue almost every single year for my Colts. Every, single, year. Sin and Tell should be fine, but how far will their development go? Rhodes and Moore have been great finds by Ballard. Rhodes at best will be what he was last year, and Moore is great. Carrie in his 8th year, his last 4 years starting numbers (Oak, Cle, Indy) are 16, 8, 6, 2. He's a depth guy at best. Chachere and Chesley? We'll see if either makes the roster. 

 

Lastly, I think DE has been the position that needs both a playmaker, and more importantly, quality depth. I am much happier that Ballard went this route at the top of the draft, than going OT. Waaayyyyy happier. As I have said before, Ballard is assembling more depth on the D-line, than I have ever seen as a Colt fan. Making the opposing QB uncomfortable is huge in the playoffs. Just ask Mahomes. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

There’s an old saying in the player personnel business that goes back 60-70 years... 

 

 

Better to give up on a player a year too early than a year too late.   I wouldn’t call it a hard and fast rule, but I think more  front office people in all team sports subscribe to it than not. 


Thats how Belichick has treated his team, and while they have had some streaks of bad drafting overall I would say it has treated him well

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If Kwitty Paye has the drive he appears to have and Dayo O can be what he appears to be, I have no worries with D Buck and Grover tearing things up in the middle. The Colts are so very athletic this year and looking at the OTA galleries has been an exercise in poetry in motion, as they say. I should also mention that Tyquan, Ben, Kamoko, Al-Quadin, et. al. can ball out as well. Just my opinion, but the D-line is solid as a rock. One last thing, I was watching Carrie's interview today and he made some very salient points about an entire defensive backfield coming back to play together another year. That is valuable and the back end wasn't too bad last year. Flus will handle this D and they may surprise some people if they can wade through the first part of the season. 

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