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Strength of Schedule Myth


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I keep reading comments about the Colts daunting SOS this coming season..... But every actual ranking I see by opponents win %, and even articles taking post season and off season developments into account, has us ranked between 20-25 in strength of schedule ... 

 

This is just one example below

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-strength-of-schedule-ranking-for-all-32-teams-heading-into-the-nfls-inaugural-17-game-season/

 

So where is all this talk and concern of a significantly tougher schedule coming from?  People setting up excuses so they feel good if the colts struggle out the gate?  I just don't see it, this season will be no tougher than any other.

 

Jmo, and apparently the statistics opinion as well ....

 

 

 

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I think most people are saying we have two separate SoS's.  They're saying first 8 games represent the hardest schedule in the league.  Then the last 9 are more friendly.

 

As always, the next game is the only one that the team is looking at. 

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I don't pay attention to SoS rankings. Maybe look back at them at the end of the season, but even then you need context. If you played the Chiefs while Mahomes was hurt, maybe that wasn't as difficult a matchup as expected.

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Keep in mind that a lot of it is based on us having 4 games against 2 of the worst teams from last years - Texans and Jaguars. Even though Jaguars are supposed to take a step forward even projections for next year put them at about 6 wins and the Texans are projected to be even worse than last year. So this accounts for some part of it and skews the calculations a bit. The rest of the schedule is kind of tough though. 

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Players are human, not predictable......stat producing machines. What happened last season has less to do with this years games, than how each individual player is feeling....or driven that day. 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Keep in mind that a lot of it is based on us having 4 games against 2 of the worst teams from last years - Texans and Jaguars. Even though Jaguars are supposed to take a step forward even projections for next year put them at about 6 wins and the Texans are projected to be even worse than last year. So this accounts for some part of it and skews the calculations a bit. The rest of the schedule is kind of tough though. 

 

NFC West is probably the toughest division in the league, plus we play the SB champs. We get the AFC East, and the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots are expected to be good. Our placement opponents are the Raiders and Ravens, both second place teams last year (obviously). 

 

It's a second place schedule, which also includes the reigning champs. It's balanced out by the Jags, Texans and Jets.

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It’s only the 3rd time in NFL history that a teams first 5 games are against opponents that all had double digit wins the previous season. The colts had double digit wins also, so they should be up to the challenge.

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The only teams that have easy schedules are teams with elite QB's who've spooked their division into making bad moves and suck for extended periods of time.  Peyton and Brady both benefited from this at times.

 

But basically all schedules look hard to me at this point, unless you're highly confident in your QB. This is why the NFL, despite the flaws is still largely compelling. 

 

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I am not sure there is anything more meaningless than SoS.  Teams that were good last year may not be this year.  The opposite is very much true as well.  It happens every single season.  

 

Just as an example - the Colts' low strength of schedule rating is largely derived from 2 games against a team that won one game last year.  Anybody really think Jacksonville is going to be that level of bad next season?

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4 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

I keep reading comments about the Colts daunting SOS this coming season..... But every actual ranking I see by opponents win %, and even articles taking post season and off season developments into account, has us ranked between 20-25 in strength of schedule ... 

 

This is just one example below

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-strength-of-schedule-ranking-for-all-32-teams-heading-into-the-nfls-inaugural-17-game-season/

 

So where is all this talk and concern of a significantly tougher schedule coming from?  People setting up excuses so they feel good if the colts struggle out the gate?  I just don't see it, this season will be no tougher than any other.

 

Jmo, and apparently the statistics opinion as well ....

 

 

 

basing the schedule on last years win - loss  of opponents means nothing in the nfl .    if you dont see going against the seahawks , rams , ravens , 49ers , bills titans twice , bucs , dolphins and patriots as tough i dont know what to tell you . even the raiders and cardinals are tough .  the jags and jets could be playoff teams also with good new QB remember the colts went from 2-14 to 11-5 in one year with a good QB . its a QB driven league the jags beat us last year without trevor .   the first 5 games are the toughest because the colts have a brand new QB with a new OC and are gonna have young guys starting on the defensive line .  Teams do not just mesh right away the offense is gonna struggle early . 

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27 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

I am not sure there is anything more meaningless than SoS.  Teams that were good last year may not be this year.  The opposite is very much true as well.  It happens every single season.  

 

Just as an example - the Colts' low strength of schedule rating is largely derived from 2 games against a team that won one game last year.  Anybody really think Jacksonville is going to be that level of bad next season?

also the jets and 49ers who both will be much better .  the raiders also put in work to fix their defense . 

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1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

I am not sure there is anything more meaningless than SoS.  Teams that were good last year may not be this year.  The opposite is very much true as well.  It happens every single season.  

 

Just as an example - the Colts' low strength of schedule rating is largely derived from 2 games against a team that won one game last year.  Anybody really think Jacksonville is going to be that level of bad next season?

I agree that SoS is not worth the paper it's written on as a predictor of and by itself... It's just a factor when prognosticating a coming seasons picture....and yes, I fully expect the jags to be pretty much what they've always been.  A joke.  Maybe a four or five win joke, but a joke nonetheless.

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8 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

I keep reading comments about the Colts daunting SOS this coming season..... But every actual ranking I see by opponents win %, and even articles taking post season and off season developments into account, has us ranked between 20-25 in strength of schedule ... 

 

This is just one example below

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-strength-of-schedule-ranking-for-all-32-teams-heading-into-the-nfls-inaugural-17-game-season/

 

So where is all this talk and concern of a significantly tougher schedule coming from?  People setting up excuses so they feel good if the colts struggle out the gate?  I just don't see it, this season will be no tougher than any other.

 

Jmo, and apparently the statistics opinion as well ....

 

 

 

to me it's less about the overall schedule than it is about how the schedule's front-loaded with those first 5 games (including IIRC three straight on the road)

 

especially if one assumes Fisher won't be ready for most, if not all, of those games

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Really the only metric you can go by is SOS = opposing teams winning % but it is flawed IMO. It doesn't tell the whole story. Mainly because if you play 3 or 4 real bad teams it will bring down your SOS eventhough you may play 5 or 6 good teams.

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