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Colts OL Spend


Colts OL Spend  

84 members have voted

  1. 1. Are you OK with the Colts spending almost 30% of the salary cap on OL in 2020 (before extensions).

  2. 2. Are you OK with the Colts spending almost 40% of the salary cap on OL in 2021?

  3. 3. Will Fisher be back in 2021?


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  • Poll closed on 07/31/2021 at 08:59 AM

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Taking a break from NBA (Pacers stink BTW lol), and deep diving the Colts Schedule (will likely post something tomorrow)... 

With all the talk on OL, extensions, etc, decided to quickly take a look at our OL and projections, and compare to other teams.

 

TLDR General Notes

  • Colts
    • Highest NFL OL spend already at 53.3M (prior to extensions), and 28% of salary cap (assumes Fisher's 9.4 is in 2021)
    • Projections
      • Nelson - 18M (+12M) - highest paid LG
      • Smith - 16M (+14M) - top 3 paid RT
      • If both are extended this year, Indy would be spending 79M on OL, and 27ish M more than the next NFL team. If the salary cap goes up to 200M next year (from 188M this year), Colts could be spending nearly 40% of the cap on OL if they simply resign Glow for the same, and that doesn't count a raise for Fisher if they choose to resign.
      • If Fisher recovers, he's likely to get 15M or more next year, pushing the yearly up (+5 or more) even more.
      • Glow, while a bargain IMO, and the best weak link in the NFL, is still making top 10 money. He's in a contract year.
      • See SB teams spend and performance rank farther below. 
  • NFL Position High, Position 10th
    • LT: Top 23M/Y, 10th 14.75M/Y
      • Fisher: 17th (9.4M)
    • LG: Top 16M/Y, 10th 6.0M
      • Nelson: 10th (6.0M)
    • OC: Top 12.5/Y, 10th 9.0M/Y
      • Kelly: 2nd (12.4M)
    • RG: Top 18M/Y, 10th 5M/Y
      • Glow: 9th (5.4M)
    • RT: Top 18M/Y, 10th 8M/Y
      • Smith: 44th (1.8M)
    • Other T: Tevi (2.5M), Davenport (1.1M), Holden (0.8M), Od'Donnell (0.7M)
    • Other G: Reed (1.3M), Fries (0.9M), Elderkamp (0.9M)
    • Other C: Hunt (1.0M), Pinter (0.9M)
  • Current Top 5 OL spending 2021 / 2020 spending rank / 2020 OL Rank
    • 1. Colts 53.3M / 8th / #7
    • 2. Jags 52.7M / 16th / #22
    • 3. Browns 52.6M / 6th / #1
    • 4. WFT 51.6M / 4th / #6
    • 5. Titans 46.0M / 19th / #15
    • 6. Jets 45.1M / 17th / #29
    • 7. Eagles 43.9M / 29th / #19
    • 8. Cardinals 41.6M / 13th / #12
    • 9. Bills 40.2M / 3rd / #10
    • 10. 49ers 38.7M / 28th / #9
    • Note: 
      • 2020 AVG OL Spend: 26M
      • 2021 AVG OL Spend: 35.1M
  • SB Teams / OL Spend / OL Rank
    • 2020
      • TB / 2nd / #5
      • KC / 24th / #11
    • 2019
      • KC / 14th / #16
      • SF / 17th / #14
    • 2018
      • NE / 26th / #4
      • LAR / 8th / #6
    • Average Spend Rank (last 3 SBs): 16th
    • Average OL Rank (last 3 SBs): #9
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I don’t think Fisher returns until mid season. I also don’t think he’ll be back to form. So I vote no, he won’t be back here in 2021.

 

Now, barring injury or compete flameout, I do think we will kick the tires on him again for 2022. 

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Taking a break from NBA (Pacers stink BTW lol), and deep diving the Colts Schedule (will likely post something tomorrow)... 

With all the talk on OL, extensions, etc, decided to quickly take a look at our OL and projections, and compare to other teams.

 

TLDR General Notes

  • Colts
    • Highest NFL OL spend already at 53.3M (prior to extensions), and 28% of salary cap (assumes Fisher's 9.4 is in 2021)
    • Projections
      • Nelson - 18M (+12M) - highest paid LG
      • Smith - 16M (+14M) - top 3 paid RT
      • If both are extended this year, Indy would be spending 79M on OL, and 27ish M more than the next NFL team. If the salary cap goes up to 200M next year (from 188M this year), Colts could be spending nearly 40% of the cap on OL if they simply resign Glow for the same, and that doesn't count a raise for Fisher if they choose to resign.
      • If Fisher recovers, he's likely to get 15M or more next year, pushing the yearly up (+5 or more) even more.
      • Glow, while a bargain IMO, and the best weak link in the NFL, is still making top 10 money. He's in a contract year.
      • See SB teams spend and performance rank farther below. 
  • NFL Position High, Position 10th
    • LT: Top 23M/Y, 10th 14.75M/Y
      • Fisher: 17th (9.4M)
    • LG: Top 16M/Y, 10th 6.0M
      • Nelson: 10th (6.0M)
    • OC: Top 12.5/Y, 10th 9.0M/Y
      • Kelly: 2nd (12.4M)
    • RG: Top 18M/Y, 10th 5M/Y
      • Glow: 9th (5.4M)
    • RT: Top 18M/Y, 10th 8M/Y
      • Smith: 44th (1.8M)
    • Other T: Tevi (2.5M), Davenport (1.1M), Holden (0.8M), Od'Donnell (0.7M)
    • Other G: Reed (1.3M), Fries (0.9M), Elderkamp (0.9M)
    • Other C: Hunt (1.0M), Pinter (0.9M)
  • Current Top 5 OL spending 2021 / 2020 spending rank / 2020 OL Rank
    • 1. Colts 53.3M / 8th / #7
    • 2. Jags 52.7M / 16th / #22
    • 3. Browns 52.6M / 6th / #1
    • 4. WFT 51.6M / 4th / #6
    • 5. Titans 46.0M / 19th / #15
    • 6. Jets 45.1M / 17th / #29
    • 7. Eagles 43.9M / 29th / #19
    • 8. Cardinals 41.6M / 13th / #12
    • 9. Bills 40.2M / 3rd / #10
    • 10. 49ers 38.7M / 28th / #9
    • Note: 
      • 2020 AVG OL Spend: 26M
      • 2021 AVG OL Spend: 35.1M
  • SB Teams / OL Spend / OL Rank
    • 2020
      • TB / 2nd / #5
      • KC / 24th / #11
    • 2019
      • KC / 14th / #16
      • SF / 17th / #14
    • 2018
      • NE / 26th / #4
      • LAR / 8th / #6
    • Average Spend Rank (last 3 SBs): 16th
    • Average OL Rank (last 3 SBs): #9

I just opened this up after I posted something similar on another thread

 

I would say great minds think alike, but that would be an insult to YOU :)

 

As I said in the other thread....  we will have a tremendous challenge, managing the cap in 2022 with extensions and future contracts

 

 

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That was my biggest gripe with not getting someone in the draft, but they drafted a premium position still so it didn't really matter. I expect them to be able to re-sign every the next couple years. We'll start losing people if they keep drafting well but that's a good thing. 

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 I'm pleased where we are at with our cap, so kudos to our planning. Why sweat the details.

 CB and Irsay will do all they can to keep as many as they can. And the established culture will always be a  competitive advantage at contract time.

 I see us in position to having a o-line and ground game along the lines of the Cowboys and Emmitt. 

 Most of you understand what that means for time of possession and play action. If Wentz can get even close to 33-7... we can justify a very high % towards the right dominant individuals.

 We would be as good as any for 3-4 years. Knock Knock

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I don’t think it’s gonna work out. It’s too much leaving not enough for other positions.  Linemen neither score nor prevent TDS.  
 

if you have a great QB on a rookie contract, it could be ultimately successful IMO.  Otherwise I don’t see it.
 

I want a strong line, when you look at the list of spending, the best SB caliber teams arent on it.  
 

TENN is not SB caliber.  They had a nice run last year but were in tenuous playoff position at the end of the year.

 

BUFF maybe, but they are towards the bottom of the list.  And Allen won’t be on a rookie contract much longer.

 

spending that much will make likely 2 things:

1.  We will be at least good offensively.

2.  We will not be a good enough team on D and at skill positions to be championship caliber.

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Now football changes.  CB appears to be attempting to return to an 80s style of football.        Walsh West coast really with a heavier emphasis on the run,   Short stuff and crossing routes and pass catchers in the backfield.  Walsh’s teams ran a lot more than many realize likely, but compared to other teams of the era they were “pass heavy”.

 

this might work.  I just think the rules of today’s game make it more expedient to throw the ball.  Can’t hit the QB or the receivers.  Tight secondary reffing.

 

It’s kinda like baseball IMO, found out the best way to score runs was to take a lot of pitches and swing as hard as you can trying to hit everything out of the stadium like our dads told us not to.

 

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9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I voted Yes to all 3. It starts up front, if a team has a great O.Line even with a good QB you can win a SB. The QB has to be at least good obviously but with a great O.Line your run game is usually good as well.

Can you think of a recent example where a team won with that formula?  I can’t.

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5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Can you think of a recent example where a team won with that formula?  I can’t.

 

 Please name a team that had a great o-line recently. And with 2 good blocking TE's. And at least 1 good blocking WR. We will see how our other Big WR's come along as blockers.

 Our ground game should be dominant in a lot of 4th quarters. That is so boring, and yet so demoralizing to an opponent and their fans. 

 We shall watch their lamentation and revel in it on our way to glory.

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46 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Please name a team that had a great o-line recently. And with 2 good blocking TE's. And at least 1 good blocking WR. We will see how our other Big WR's come along as blockers.

 Our ground game should be dominant in a lot of 4th quarters. That is so boring, and yet so demoralizing to an opponent and their fans. 

 We shall watch their lamentation and revel in it on our way to glory.

It will be fun to be on the winning side of that equation!  I remember Manning's face on the sidelines while the opponent ran it down the Colts throat.

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I was having similar thoughts a while ago - how can we have so much money tied in the OL and isn't this detrimental to the team? The more I've been thinking about it the more I feel like... it's all about allocation of resources. Every team has limited resources and if you allocate too much resources to one area you might be hitting the point of diminishing returns. For example... would you rather pay 40% of your cap on the no. 1 OL in the league or 30% on the no. 5 OL in the league? And where is the cut off where it all becomes excessive spending that can be used better elsewhere on the roster? But also... we have to account for draft picks in our considerations, too.

 

This is really the main couple of resources for acquiring talent - cap space and draft picks . It's interesting that they are almost completely decoupled, too ... meaning - for huge majority of draft picks, the cap spent is minuscule and doesn't impact the cap space much and at the same time for the biggest of our cap spendings we don't spend draft resources(Buckner and Q being the exceptions here). It's also important to not count it twice once the draft picks enter their second contract. At least I don't ... so... in essence it becomes - cap space + RECENT draft picks(still on rookie contracts)....

 

In essence my position has been ammended to something along the lines of - I don't care what % of the money we spend on specific position group as long as there is enough resources (this might include draft picks) spent on most other important positions. Example -

 

- QB - we spent 1st, 3d and 25M a year for QB. This is plenty IMO. People seem to consider it cheap but it is NOT cheap when you account for BOTH the picks and the money. If Wentz gets back to his previous form with us, I am good with it. I think it's worth it having that type of QB.

- EDGE group - no big money spent, but pretty big draft resources - currently 1st round pick, 3 second round picks..

- Interior pass-rush - big money, big resources (22M a year for Buckner, 10M a year for Grover, 1st for Buckner).

- OL - good mix of money and draft resources (Fisher 10M, Kelly 12M, Glowinski 6M + 1st + 2nd on Q and Braden)... now if you have to replace the 1st and 2nd from Braden with big money you will need to spend some picks rather than money on other positions and this is exactly what we did with EDGE - shuffled around the resources spent from money(Autry, Houston) to draft picks - Paye, Odeyingbo

- CB - this IMO is the group that is in a holding pattern... I don't know where we will go with it, because we have some pick investments, but they are to a huge degree question marks and Kenny is our only CB with somewhat big(still not huge though) contract past this year. IMO Ballard is waiting on them(Rock, Tell, Rodgers) to show him something either way and we are very likely to address it next year. BTW I have not watched next year's CBs, but the PFF guys seem to think next year's CB class is very good... probably too ealry to tell at this point but worth keeping in mind. I wonder if Ballard looks ahead to future drafts... 

- WR - good, not great resources spent - 2 2nd round pick + short term deal for TY... another position in holding pattern. 

 

So I guess my general position is - As long as the roster overall has good talent at other positions be it through bargain FA contracts that hit or through draft picks, I'm good with us splurging a bit on a specific area of the team that we consider important. In general I feel like our resources have been spent relatively well, with some minor gripes here and there, but even for them there IMO is a good reason. 

 

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8 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

So I guess my general position is - As long as the roster overall has good talent at other positions be it through bargain FA contracts that hit or through draft picks, I'm good with us splurging a bit on a specific area of the team that we consider important. In general I feel like our resources have been spent relatively well, with some minor gripes here and there, but even for them there IMO is a good reason. 

 

The reality of the situation is that you try to keep your 4-5 stars, rotate out your aging or expensive middle of the roster and hope that you keep up with a robust inexpensive rookie haul each year

 

I see these "middle guys" getting traded for draft picks, or being allowed to leave via FA (Which creates comp picks)

 

 

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One of the biggest benefits of this defense is the ability to play it with middle of the road CBs....

If of course, you have a pass rush

 

You invest in pass rush DL vs CBs

 

If you play a lot of Man to man, you need 1 or 2 - 12-16M players

 

CBs are some of the most expensive position to fill

 

Jalen Ramsey's cap hit is 21 million this year.......  

 

People keep calling on us to spend big FA money and early draft capitol on CBs, just like other teams

 

IMHO, keep bringing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round CBs that are 6ft or bigger, and might run a 4.5 forty but can tackle

 

You do need a safety that can play to cover the deep ball when the DL doenst get home, but you cant have both

 

 

 

 

 

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I think Fisher was signed with the intention of keeping him well beyond 2021.  Ballard will pay and extend the players he wants to keep.  I don't worry about such things as spending too much on the OL.  That's Ballard's job.  I have confidence he knows what he is doing.  Too many variables can change the best of plans.  I don't get hung up on keeping players until they retire.  Very few players are able to do that.  As a fan I am just hoping for success and a chance at at SB very year.  

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10 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

One of the biggest benefits of this defense is the ability to play it with middle of the road CBs....

If of course, you have a pass rush

 

You invest in pass rush DL vs CBs

 

If you play a lot of Man to man, you need 1 or 2 - 12-16M players

 

CBs are some of the most expensive position to fill

 

Jalen Ramsey's cap hit is 21 million this year.......  

 

People keep calling on us to spend big FA money and early draft capitol on CBs, just like other teams

 

IMHO, keep bringing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round CBs that are 6ft or bigger, and might run a 4.5 forty but can tackle

 

You do need a safety that can play to cover the deep ball when the DL doenst get home, but you cant have both

 

 

 

 

 

Ballard has taken his shots at drafting defensive backs; Hooker, Wilson, Rock, Willis, Blackmon to name a few.  Some have worked out. That said I like the idea of adding a veteran FA or two as aces in the hole in case things go astray with our younger players.  Rhodes and Carrie are good examples.  I actually wouldn't mind adding another veteran like Breeland for example.  Another proven vet who can hold the fort if necessary.  Especially this year as we make a SB run.  17 games is a long season.  

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It doesn't really matter where you allocate your cap resources as long as you're paying guys who aren't going to put their feet up once they get paid.

 

And the reason this will always be true is because each roster's end strength can still be fine even with money unevenly distributed.  You either have a good roster or you don't.  And the Colts, fortunately, have a very good roster so I could care less where the money is piled.

 

For this season my only concern with the OL is Fisher holding up and living up to expectations.  After the draft that concern was a lot stronger than it is now.  Now I feel much better but if Fisher misses time or otherwise doesn't play well Wentz will be the guy who suffers.  

 

Lastly paying two guys on an OL is not crazy either.  I'm fine with that in and of itself.

 

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Ballard has taken his shots at drafting defensive backs; Hooker, Wilson, Rock, Willis, Blackmon to name a few.  Some have worked out. That said I like the idea of adding a veteran FA or two as aces in the hole in case things go astray with our younger players.  Rhodes and Carrie are good examples.  I actually wouldn't mind adding another veteran like Breeland for example.  Another proven vet who can hold the fort if necessary.  Especially this year as we make a SB run.  17 games is a long season.  

Actually, the Safety position is EXTREMELY important in this defense.

 

The fact is, your defense line doesnt get home every play

 

You need a speedy player that can keep up with the long throw 

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3 hours ago, Nickster said:

Can you think of a recent example where a team won with that formula?  I can’t.

A lot of teams have won with that formula. When Russell Wilson won a SB he wasn't great, he was just good back in 2013 but they had a great O.Line that season. Nick Foles has always been average in reality and he won with that formula as well, Eagles had a great O.Line in 2017. Joe Flacco also did in 2012 so did Eli in 2007 and 2011.

 

Although not recently, the Redskins won 3 SB's in 10 seasons with their O.Line being the strongest part of their team. They won with 3 different QB's and none of them are Hall of Famers = Theismann, Williams, and Rypien.

 

Yes you need at least a good QB to win, I have always said that but with a great O.Line and a good QB, sure you can win a SB. Of course it would be fabulous to have Peyton Manning as your QB and just a good O.Line but that is rare having a Peyton type lol.

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Do a projection of the average OL cap hit over the next four years, and divide by the projected salary cap over the next four years. That's the relevant percentage, and it's less than 30-40%.

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14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Taking a break from NBA (Pacers stink BTW lol), and deep diving the Colts Schedule (will likely post something tomorrow)... 

With all the talk on OL, extensions, etc, decided to quickly take a look at our OL and projections, and compare to other teams.

 

TLDR General Notes

  • Colts
    • Highest NFL OL spend already at 53.3M (prior to extensions), and 28% of salary cap (assumes Fisher's 9.4 is in 2021)
    • Projections
      • Nelson - 18M (+12M) - highest paid LG
      • Smith - 16M (+14M) - top 3 paid RT
      • If both are extended this year, Indy would be spending 79M on OL, and 27ish M more than the next NFL team. If the salary cap goes up to 200M next year (from 188M this year), Colts could be spending nearly 40% of the cap on OL if they simply resign Glow for the same, and that doesn't count a raise for Fisher if they choose to resign.
      • If Fisher recovers, he's likely to get 15M or more next year, pushing the yearly up (+5 or more) even more.
      • Glow, while a bargain IMO, and the best weak link in the NFL, is still making top 10 money. He's in a contract year.
      • See SB teams spend and performance rank farther below. 
  • NFL Position High, Position 10th
    • LT: Top 23M/Y, 10th 14.75M/Y
      • Fisher: 17th (9.4M)
    • LG: Top 16M/Y, 10th 6.0M
      • Nelson: 10th (6.0M)
    • OC: Top 12.5/Y, 10th 9.0M/Y
      • Kelly: 2nd (12.4M)
    • RG: Top 18M/Y, 10th 5M/Y
      • Glow: 9th (5.4M)
    • RT: Top 18M/Y, 10th 8M/Y
      • Smith: 44th (1.8M)
    • Other T: Tevi (2.5M), Davenport (1.1M), Holden (0.8M), Od'Donnell (0.7M)
    • Other G: Reed (1.3M), Fries (0.9M), Elderkamp (0.9M)
    • Other C: Hunt (1.0M), Pinter (0.9M)
  • Current Top 5 OL spending 2021 / 2020 spending rank / 2020 OL Rank
    • 1. Colts 53.3M / 8th / #7
    • 2. Jags 52.7M / 16th / #22
    • 3. Browns 52.6M / 6th / #1
    • 4. WFT 51.6M / 4th / #6
    • 5. Titans 46.0M / 19th / #15
    • 6. Jets 45.1M / 17th / #29
    • 7. Eagles 43.9M / 29th / #19
    • 8. Cardinals 41.6M / 13th / #12
    • 9. Bills 40.2M / 3rd / #10
    • 10. 49ers 38.7M / 28th / #9
    • Note: 
      • 2020 AVG OL Spend: 26M
      • 2021 AVG OL Spend: 35.1M
  • SB Teams / OL Spend / OL Rank
    • 2020
      • TB / 2nd / #5
      • KC / 24th / #11
    • 2019
      • KC / 14th / #16
      • SF / 17th / #14
    • 2018
      • NE / 26th / #4
      • LAR / 8th / #6
    • Average Spend Rank (last 3 SBs): 16th
    • Average OL Rank (last 3 SBs): #9

People think I hate on Leonard and Nelson. I just get q little squeamish bout spending big money on their respective positions. That's a lot of dough and something has got to give. If u spend that money on the Oline they better grade #1 on both run blocking and pass protection.

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14 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

People think I hate on Leonard and Nelson. I just get q little squeamish bout spending big money on their respective positions. That's a lot of dough and something has got to give. If u spend that money on the Oline they better grade #1 on both run blocking and pass protection.

Could also be because you have said they are overrated multiple times

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2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

A lot of teams have won with that formula. When Russell Wilson won a SB he wasn't great, he was just good back in 2013 but they had a great O.Line that season. Nick Foles has always been average in reality and he won with that formula as well, Eagles had a great O.Line in 2017. Joe Flacco also did in 2012 so did Eli in 2007 and 2011.

I personally feel like that's a different aspect of it. These teams did well with very good or great O-line play but they didn't always spend 40% of their resources to achieve it.

 

For me part of the trick is getting a line that is greater than the sum of its parts, a couple of excellent players in there mixed in with cheaper complimentary parts. You can then get a unit to overachieve the resources it took to build it, its one of the few areas of the team where it is consistently done.

 

If other teams get their unit to play at a similar level to ours while spending less resources on it it gives them a massive advantage over the remainder of the team.

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9 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

I personally feel like that's a different aspect of it. These teams did well with very good or great O-line play but they didn't always spend 40% of their resources to achieve it.

 

For me part of the trick is getting a line that is greater than the sum of its parts, a couple of excellent players in there mixed in with cheaper complimentary parts. You can then get a unit to overachieve the resources it took to build it, its one of the few areas of the team where it is consistently done.

 

If other teams get their unit to play at a similar level to ours while spending less resources on it it gives them a massive advantage over the remainder of the team.

Good point. Q IMO may be the overall best O.Lineman in the league so he deserves huge money but to your point paying the whole O.Line huge money isn't ideal.

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I think Ballard will keep doing one year deals at LT until such time he can draft one, which could be 2022. 
Fisher will not get a huge payday here at his age and cap number, he’s just a stopgap

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7 minutes ago, SteelDragon said:

I think Ballard will keep doing one year deals at LT until such time he can draft one, which could be 2022. 
Fisher will not get a huge payday here at his age and cap number, he’s just a stopgap

Ultimately you may be right, but it sure seems that the Colts are planning on him being around for the next few years

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More of a thought on the team as a whole, but I am very pleased with where our roster is right now. Besides left tackle and maybe a third LB, we have no glaring holes. This roster is young, talented, and has incredible character. Ballard has really 180ed this team from the Grigson years

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14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

A lot of teams have won with that formula. When Russell Wilson won a SB he wasn't great, he was just good back in 2013 but they had a great O.Line that season. Nick Foles has always been average in reality and he won with that formula as well, Eagles had a great O.Line in 2017. Joe Flacco also did in 2012 so did Eli in 2007 and 2011.

 

Although not recently, the Redskins won 3 SB's in 10 seasons with their O.Line being the strongest part of their team. They won with 3 different QB's and none of them are Hall of Famers = Theismann, Williams, and Rypien.

 

Yes you need at least a good QB to win, I have always said that but with a great O.Line and a good QB, sure you can win a SB. Of course it would be fabulous to have Peyton Manning as your QB and just a good O.Line but that is rare having a Peyton type lol.

I’m not talking about having a great oline.  I’m talking about spending 30 to 40% of your cap in them..  Of course having a great o line is helpful.  
 

The Hoggs aren’t recent.

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17 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Please name a team that had a great o-line recently. And with 2 good blocking TE's. And at least 1 good blocking WR. We will see how our other Big WR's come along as blockers.

 Our ground game should be dominant in a lot of 4th quarters. That is so boring, and yet so demoralizing to an opponent and their fans. 

 We shall watch their lamentation and revel in it on our way to glory.

In one of the posts I’ve said it’s possible that the Colts are revolutionizing football which happens every so often.  It’s not likely statistically because these type of changes happen once or twice a decade or so.

 

I said think the rules dictate that the passing game is the most efficient way to score.

 

One thing that might favor such a revolution, is the fact that since the rules are set up for passing success, teams have adjusted their personnel characteristics,  smaller LBs, nickel base ds.  It’s possible that  emmit smith era emphasis will come back.  I doubt it though.  You still are going to need to throw it into the end zone.

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14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

A lot of teams have won with that formula. When Russell Wilson won a SB he wasn't great, he was just good back in 2013 but they had a great O.Line that season. Nick Foles has always been average in reality and he won with that formula as well, Eagles had a great O.Line in 2017. Joe Flacco also did in 2012 so did Eli in 2007 and 2011.

 

Although not recently, the Redskins won 3 SB's in 10 seasons with their O.Line being the strongest part of their team. They won with 3 different QB's and none of them are Hall of Famers = Theismann, Williams, and Rypien.

 

Yes you need at least a good QB to win, I have always said that but with a great O.Line and a good QB, sure you can win a SB. Of course it would be fabulous to have Peyton Manning as your QB and just a good O.Line but that is rare having a Peyton type lol.

The Seahawks allocated about 20% of the cap to the oline, raves about 12,  and 2011 NYG about 15.  That is what this thread is  about, cap economy.

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On 5/16/2021 at 12:27 AM, EastStreet said:

Taking a break from NBA (Pacers stink BTW lol), and deep diving the Colts Schedule (will likely post something tomorrow)... 

With all the talk on OL, extensions, etc, decided to quickly take a look at our OL and projections, and compare to other teams.

 

TLDR General Notes

  • Colts
    • Highest NFL OL spend already at 53.3M (prior to extensions), and 28% of salary cap (assumes Fisher's 9.4 is in 2021)
    • Projections
      • Nelson - 18M (+12M) - highest paid LG
      • Smith - 16M (+14M) - top 3 paid RT
      • If both are extended this year, Indy would be spending 79M on OL, and 27ish M more than the next NFL team. If the salary cap goes up to 200M next year (from 188M this year), Colts could be spending nearly 40% of the cap on OL if they simply resign Glow for the same, and that doesn't count a raise for Fisher if they choose to resign.
      • If Fisher recovers, he's likely to get 15M or more next year, pushing the yearly up (+5 or more) even more.
      • Glow, while a bargain IMO, and the best weak link in the NFL, is still making top 10 money. He's in a contract year.
      • See SB teams spend and performance rank farther below. 
  • NFL Position High, Position 10th
    • LT: Top 23M/Y, 10th 14.75M/Y
      • Fisher: 17th (9.4M)
    • LG: Top 16M/Y, 10th 6.0M
      • Nelson: 10th (6.0M)
    • OC: Top 12.5/Y, 10th 9.0M/Y
      • Kelly: 2nd (12.4M)
    • RG: Top 18M/Y, 10th 5M/Y
      • Glow: 9th (5.4M)
    • RT: Top 18M/Y, 10th 8M/Y
      • Smith: 44th (1.8M)
    • Other T: Tevi (2.5M), Davenport (1.1M), Holden (0.8M), Od'Donnell (0.7M)
    • Other G: Reed (1.3M), Fries (0.9M), Elderkamp (0.9M)
    • Other C: Hunt (1.0M), Pinter (0.9M)
  • Current Top 5 OL spending 2021 / 2020 spending rank / 2020 OL Rank
    • 1. Colts 53.3M / 8th / #7
    • 2. Jags 52.7M / 16th / #22
    • 3. Browns 52.6M / 6th / #1
    • 4. WFT 51.6M / 4th / #6
    • 5. Titans 46.0M / 19th / #15
    • 6. Jets 45.1M / 17th / #29
    • 7. Eagles 43.9M / 29th / #19
    • 8. Cardinals 41.6M / 13th / #12
    • 9. Bills 40.2M / 3rd / #10
    • 10. 49ers 38.7M / 28th / #9
    • Note: 
      • 2020 AVG OL Spend: 26M
      • 2021 AVG OL Spend: 35.1M
  • SB Teams / OL Spend / OL Rank
    • 2020
      • TB / 2nd / #5
      • KC / 24th / #11
    • 2019
      • KC / 14th / #16
      • SF / 17th / #14
    • 2018
      • NE / 26th / #4
      • LAR / 8th / #6
    • Average Spend Rank (last 3 SBs): 16th
    • Average OL Rank (last 3 SBs): #9

Pacers are an amazing organization IMO.  They’ve assembled competitive teams for most of the last 25 years with very few high draft picks and not much FA draw to the square city in the middle of a cornfield.

 

They stink because of injury.  I’m pretty bullish in them assuming a return to the court for all these injured guys.  Are you?

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I think Glow and eventually Kelly when his contract expires will be replaced by draft picks.  Pinter may be in the mix with that strategy.  The other three positions will be the more expensive positions for the longer term.

 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think Glow and eventually Kelly when his contract expires will be replaced by draft picks.  Pinter may be in the mix with that strategy.  The other three positions will be the more expensive positions for the longer term.

 

 

 For sure. You develope your draft picks over 2-3 years and use then to replace your losses. You want a big core of talented players that have been together for 3-7 years. We are just beginning to to get there.
And the sky is the limit.

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think Glow and eventually Kelly when his contract expires will be replaced by draft picks.  Pinter may be in the mix with that strategy.  The other three positions will be the more expensive positions for the longer term.

 

Kelly was just re-signed last season. He is going to be here a long time. I think it was a five year contract.

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16 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Kelly was just re-signed last season. He is going to be here a long time. I think it was a five year contract.

Yes.  I think his compensation diminishes each year too.  It was front loaded, IIRC, making it easier to keep him as we resign others, and keeping the cap hit for the entire unit reasonable as the cap increases.  

 

Down the road, I don' know if any team can pay 4 olinemen top 5 money.

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8 hours ago, Nickster said:

Pacers are an amazing organization IMO.  They’ve assembled competitive teams for most of the last 25 years with very few high draft picks and not much FA draw to the square city in the middle of a cornfield.

 

They stink because of injury.  I’m pretty bullish in them assuming a return to the court for all these injured guys.  Are you?

Your quote on the Pacers is absurd in my opinion. They are the definition of mediocrity. They meet the goal of the ownership which is to put out a winning team that makes the playoffs but they have no desire to compete for a championship. They have an NBA wide reputation for being cheap both with players and coaches. They can't sign a good free agent and if they rarely get a star player he is working to escape to a franchise that is competing to win a championship. I have been watching the Pacers from the first game they every played at the State Fair Grounds. The situation has been this way since the Simons rescued the team and took over ownership. The Pacers have had only two or three stars in their entire NBA existence. Paul George, Danny Granger and Jermaine O'Neal are about it. They have had a lot of good players but it takes super stars to win NBA titles and the Pacers have not had one of those in their entire time in the NBA. Imagine your Colts going from 9-8 to 10-7 ever year and getting a wild card in the playoffs. That is what the Pacers are. I am not trolling but after so many years of being a fan I would like to see them compete for a championship before I croak. 

 

The Colts at least are always working to compete for a Super Bowl win. 

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2 hours ago, Thebrashandthebold said:

I have been watching the Pacers from the first game they every played at the State Fair Grounds.

 

2 hours ago, Thebrashandthebold said:

The Pacers have had only two or three stars in their entire NBA existence. Paul George, Danny Granger and Jermaine O'Neal are about it.

Not sure how you could have been watching that long and missed mentioning George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, and Reggie Miller. :thinking:

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