Poll: Record and Wins Predictions (MERGE)

[The Fish]

12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

NFL.com's playoff picture for the AFC

 

1 Chiefs 

2 Bills

3 Ravens

4 Colts

5 Browns

6 Dolphins

7 Titans

That's not going to happen. NFL.com toadies should be fan's enough to factor in a few new playoff teams, as they always crop up.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, The Fish said:

Floor is probably 7, celling is 10.5/11

 

Wentz is the engine and I don't know what to expect right now. 

 

I went floor 8 = Wentz is average and we have a lot of injuries, ceiling 12. I have us winning 11 but like you basically said that will only happen if Wentz plays good. If Wentz plays great 12 is very possible.

[MPStack]

26 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

And somehow it's only #26 based on projected win totals for 2021. 

 

Better bank those AFCS wins. If they have to more than 6 wins against that non-division schedule, that could prove difficult. 

 

I could see anywhere from 7-12 wins this upcoming season, which would up my median at 9.5 wins. 

I don’t expect the Colts to play as well as last season. I said it way before the draft and I hope I’m wrong. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I don’t expect the Colts to play as well as last season. I said it way before the draft and I hope I’m wrong. 

They may not, we won 2 very close games against Houston and Rivers brought a certain type leadership we needed + he played good. A lot of this depends on how Wentz plays.

[MPStack]

29 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

They may not, we won 2 very close games against Houston and Rivers brought a certain type leadership we needed + he played good. A lot of this depends on how Wentz plays.

It’s all on Wentz. Hopefully, he returns to 2017 form, but he has regressed the past three seasons. I think he’s definitely in a better position to turn it around and has a far better supporting cast with the OL, RB’s and WR’s. 
 

Old man Rivers got the Colts to the playoffs with a lackluster pass rush on defense. I expect the Colts to be no worse on defense in 2021, maybe even little better. So, like I said, the Colts will go as far as Wentz can lead them. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

NFL.com's playoff picture for the AFC

 

1 Chiefs 

2 Bills

3 Ravens

4 Colts

5 Browns

6 Dolphins

7 Titans

There always seems to be at least 2 new teams that make it in that didn't the season before. I will go:

1. Chiefs projection 14-3/AFC West Champs

 

2. Ravens projection 12-5/AFC North Champs

 

3. Bills projection 12-5/AFC East Champs

 

4. Colts - I think we win 11, so does Tennessee but I have it playing out that we have the tiebreaker. Colts win AFC South.

 

5. Browns projection 11-6

 

6. Dolphins projection 11-6

 

7. Here is my shocker - Patriots LOL. Pats projection 11-6

 

I have Tennessee missing out even with 11 wins based on tiebreakers. I also have the Steelers missing out, I think Steelers win 9 games. The underline teams are the 2 different teams that get in. Last season we had 8 teams winning 10 or more games in the AFC, I see the same thing happening this year.

 

-All of this is just early predictions, I may change my mind after Preseason, before opening day.

[TheNextGM]

Call me optimistic but I’ll go with 13-4.

 

D will be better with Paye and Dayo when he plays.

 

Wentz is a huge upgrade.

Taylor is gonna have a season to remember. 

[Fluke_33]

first team to go 17-0 and win the super bowl.   72 dolphins are thereafter forgotten.  

[chickenMan]

15 hours ago, MPStack said:

I could see the Colts easily starting 1-4 with that schedule. And the Forum would...

 

 

I remember in Luck’s last season we started 1-4 and ended 11-5. It was a good season overall, but man every week was basically a must-win

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, The Fish said:

That's not going to happen. NFL.com toadies should be fan's enough to factor in a few new playoff teams, as they always crop up.

It's close to the same stack I'd put out there given all the pushes and pulls.

I believe that list they published was based on 1000s of simulations. 

That doesn't mean it's correct, just means it's the most plausable.

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

There always seems to be at least 2 new teams that make it in that didn't the season before. I will go:

1. Chiefs projection 14-3/AFC West Champs

 

2. Ravens projection 12-5/AFC North Champs

 

3. Bills projection 12-5/AFC East Champs

 

4. Colts - I think we win 11, so does Tennessee but I have it playing out that we have the tiebreaker. Colts win AFC South.

 

5. Browns projection 11-6

 

6. Dolphins projection 11-6

 

7. Here is my shocker - Patriots LOL. Pats projection 11-6

 

I have Tennessee missing out even with 11 wins based on tiebreakers. I also have the Steelers missing out, I think Steelers win 9 games. The underline teams are the 2 different teams that get in. Last season we had 8 teams winning 10 or more games in the AFC, I see the same thing happening this year.

 

-All of this is just early predictions, I may change my mind after Preseason, before opening day.

I can see the Colts being as high as two, but also failing to make the playoffs altogether. 

I'm deep diving the schedule now, and through the first 6 games. First 5 are tough, last 4 are easy, middle is up and down. If we do well early, the sky could be the limit. Or we could tank from there.

 

Wentz, Fisher, Campbell, and our D stepping up or back are all major narratives. 

 

I could see both the Bills and Baltimore being as high as 2 or as low as 7.

 

Patriots added a lot. All depends on QB for them. If QB works out, we know they'll run and play D well. Just hard to bet on QB at this point, but wouldn't be shocked to see them win the division over Buffalo and Miami. 

 

Browns are the Browns, but they've got a really really solid team. Large range there too.

[King Colt]

The unknown is the QB. Impossible to say as he went from a diamond to a chunk of coal. It's a wait & see in 2021. 

[JediXMan]

I can definitely see a scenario were the Colts are 8-5, get a much needed win (Hou) and bye. Then rattle off 4 wins to finish 12-5.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, JediXMan said:

I can definitely see a scenario were the Colts are 8-5, get a much needed win (Hou) and bye. Then rattle off 4 wins to finish 12-5.

Yup, tough opening stretch, but easy closing stretch. 

I'm Ok with that.

[stitches]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:38 AM, EastStreet said:

From CBS

Many our old OC should be happy!

 

"Based on records from last year, here are the teams with 10 most difficult schedules heading into 2020.

Hardest schedules
1. Steelers: 155-115-2 (.574) 
2. Ravens: 152-118-2 (.563)
3. Bears: 149-122-1 (.550)
4. Packers: 147-124-1 (.542)
5. Vikings: 144-127-1 (.531)
T-6. Bengals: 144-128 (.529)
T-6. Lions: 143-127-2 (.529)
8. Raiders: 142-128-2 (.526)
9. Browns: 140-130-2 (.518)
10. Rams: 140-132 (.515)

 

The Steelers and Packers both have 10 games against playoff teams from last year, which is the most in the NFL.

As for the easiest schedules, the Eagles will be going into the season with the least difficult slate. The Eagles will be playing ZERO teams on the road that had a winning record in 2020. They also only have five games against playoff teams from last year. 

 

Easiest schedules
1. Eagles: 117-155 (.430) 
2. Cowboys: 122-148-2 (.452)
3. Falcons: 123-148-1 (.454)
4. Buccaneers: 126-145-1 (.465)
T-5. Dolphins: 128-144 (.471)
T-5. Broncos: 127-143-2 (.471)
7. Panthers: 128-143-1 (.472)
8. Giants: 128-142-2 (.472)
T-9. Colts: 130-142 (.478)
T-9. Bills: 130-142 (.478)"

Strength of schedule based on last year records is not great. Too much turnover and changes year to year. Vegas lines or some sort of advanced analytics projections are probably better for SoS.

 

Here's one based on Vegas over unders:

Quote

 

Steelers (153)

Raiders (152)

Lions (151)

Bengals (150.5)

Texans (150)

Bears (149)

Ravens (148)

Saints (148)

Washington (148)

Cardinals (147.5)

Chiefs (146)

Rams (146)

Vikings (146)

Packers (145.5)

Giants (145.5)

Jets (144.5)

Chargers (144)

Patriots (144)

49ers (143.5)

Falcons (143)

Titans (143)

Bills (142.5)

Panthers (142.5)

Browns (142.5)

Dolphins (142)

Cowboys (141.5)

Broncos (141.5)

Colts (141)

Jaguars (141)

Eagles (141)

Buccaneers (141)

Seahawks (137.5)

 

https://theathletic.com/news/nfl-strength-of-schedule-steelers-raiders-seahawks-lions-bengals/wa372YuigYZB

 

This one thinks we with the 5th easiest schedule.

[EastStreet]

Just now, stitches said:

Strength of schedule based on last year records is not great. Too much turnover and changes year to year. Vegas lines or some sort of advanced analytics projections are probably better for SoS.

Sure, but it's an easy early indicator. In pure record, we rank 9th. Like I said, some use record + SoS, some predicted DVOA.

Regardless, we're bottom 16. Haven't seen a rank that puts up in the top half yet. As long as we have 4 games against Jax and Houston, it'll be hard. Our early stretch is rough, our late stretch is easy. Middle is up and down.

 

Vegas really doesn't do that though. They'll do record prediction more on a combo of eye test experts, analytics, plus what their experts think will be betting trends. Vegas does get very analytical, but they are not concerned with being accurate lol. Only the dolla dolla bills yo,

 

 

[MPStack]

Thought, I’d bump this up for fun. Anyone close to their preseason predictions? 
 

[MPStack]

On 5/12/2021 at 9:06 PM, MPStack said:

9-8 

 

On 5/12/2021 at 9:06 PM, MPStack said:

9-8 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, MPStack said:

I said 11-6 not far off but too far off  . I nailed it last year with Rivers though. I said 10-6 and a playoff berth and we actually went 11-5. 

[stitches]

On 5/13/2021 at 3:12 AM, Smonroe said:

Pain!

This is scarily prescient.